Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 51 – 10 January 2021

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 09 January)

  • The Ethiopian army has reportedly built a fence along the Sudanese border to stop refugees fromTigray from getting to Sudan. Reportedly Ethiopian presence on the Sudanses border has been growing. A Sudanese TV channel reported that refugees stopped crossing for the first time on Friday.
  • Bloomberg reported that Satellite images show the destruction of UN facilities and other facilities in Hitsats and Shimelba camps. The images indicate that the structures have been intentionally destroyed. Eritrean soldiers have been reported in the area, and many reports have surfaced of Eritrean soldiers killing refugees and other civilians and forcing refugees back to Eritrea.
  • Shimelba camp is now completely deserted and Eritrea refugees are deported to Eritrea. Especially young men.
  • Fires have also been reported in Shimelba and Hitsats refugee camps. In Hitsats there were 14 buildings on fire on January 5th and 55 other buildings have been damaged or destroyed. New fires have been detected since then.
  • Ethiopian TV has reported that 300 refugees in Hitsats camp were executed by the TPLF. An anonymous source states: “The Hitsats story is a lie. Eritrean forces massively killed their own citizens in Hitsats refugee camp to punish them for leaving Eritrea escaping their shoot to kill policy.”
  • The massacre on the Orthodox Maryam Tsion Church in Aksum in which 750 people were killed took place half December. People hiding in the church were brought out and shot in the square in front. The Maryam Tsion Church is a sacred place which holds the Ark of Covenant. A witness with experience in war zones states he “has never seen such a degree of inhumanity.”
  • Eritrea has consolidated its military presence in the Northern border area from Tekeze, Northern Shire up to Adigrat.
  • Western Tigray is divided in two new administrative zones, entirely under Amhara administration. The two new zones are: 1) Telemt (Amharic name of Tselemti), main place: May Tebri (Amharic name of May Tsebri). Part of Northern Gondar. and 2) Humera-Welqayt-Tegede Zone, main place: Humera.
  • The administrator of the new Humera-Welqayt-Tegede Zone is Yeabsira Eshete. Colonel Demeke of the Welkait Committee is the deputy and head of security. The new administration is composed of Amhara identifying people.
  • Reported that Tigrayan civilians from western Tigray are transported with buses to Central Tigray. The deserted houses in western Tigray are immediately taken over by Amharic settlers who are brought in.
  • There have been many reports of rape in Mekelle and elsewhere. A video has also emerged of and ENDF commander admiting that the rape is taking place in Mekelle. The commander says that while it would have been expected during times of conflict, it should not be happening now that the city is well under control of the federal government.
  • The number of IDPs in Tigray is at least 2.2 million people, and sources warn that starvation is used as a weapon. Without sanitation, there is serious concern for the health of the IDPs.
  • 6 buses filled with soldiers are moving to Shire from Gondar.
  • It is confirmed that TPLF spokesman, Sekoture Getachew, and the former director of the Ethiopian Broadcasting Authority and journalist, Abebe Asgedom, were killed by a drone attack one month ago. They were attacked by a drone while traveling together in a car.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 09 January)

  • Ethiopia has announced that it would continue with the planned second filling of the GERD dam in the absence of an agreement. The filling is planned for the coming summer.
  • Sudan has expressed “deep concern” about Ethiopian intentions to proceed with the second filling. The minister for water resources said that it had serious consequences for a nearby Sudanese dam, the Roseires dam. The first filling in July 2020 also caused serious problems for Khartoum’s water supply.
  • The Coalition of Ethiopian Inter-Religious and Elders Council warn that conflict in the Benishangul-Gumuz region is endangering the GERD dam. The dam is located in the region, and violence is aimed at disrupting the construction of the dam.
  • The GERD dam negotiations are expected to resume on Sunday, with AU experts present.
  • Sudan and Ethiopia have announced that they will hold another round of negotiations regarding the border issue.
  • China’s biggest port operator, China Merchants Groups, has agreed on a deal that would see Djibouti turned into a regional hub. The agreement would see an investment of 3 billion US$. CMG already owns a 23.5% stake in the port. China has also built a railway from Djibouti to Addis Ababa.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 09 January)

  • The British Telegraph has done extensive reporting into the involvement of Eritrean troops in Tigray. They conducted interviews of witnesses to massacres carried out by Eritrean troops in Tigray.
  • One Witness said that Eritrean troops killed “dozens” of civilians in Idaga Hamus after capturing it on November 21st. Among the victims was a priest. Another saw summary executions of civilians, also by Eritreans, in Adigrat.
  • There were also accounts of indiscriminate artillery firing on Humera, near the Eritrean border. This corroborates stories of other witness reports.
  • EU High Representative of Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, talked with Deputy PM Mekonnen and conveyed EU alarm over the situation in Tigray. He also said Ethiopia must grant unrestricted access to the region.
  • The American-Ethiopian Yohannes Abraham will serve as the American National Security Council Chief of Staff. He is currently the executive-director of President-elect Biden’s transition team.
  • A new translation tool has been developed to translate Tigrinya into English. Lesan.ai developed this new tool. Translation to Amharic is possible as well.

Links of interest

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/eritreas-shadow-war-ethiopia-laid-bare-amid-accusations-eritrean/
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2021-01-09/satellite-images-show-destruction-of-refugee-camps-in-ethiopia
https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-sudan-deeply-concerned
https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/china-merchants-signs-deal-3bn-expansion-djibouti-/

09/01/2021 News and Commentaries – Tigray War

Ethiopian women raped in Mekelle, says soldier. Here is an unabridged translation of the soldier’s speech. 

Why are women being raped at this time in the city of Mekelle? This is not a war time. If it were war-time it may be expected as it is not manageable. But we are here reclaiming peace and order. With local and federal police on duty and several staffs available, how come another incident happened today after the one that was reported last night?

Satellite Images Show Ethiopia Carnage as Conflict Continues. Bloomber, Politics.

Satellite images show the destruction of United Nations’ facilities, a health-care unit, a high school and houses at two camps [Hitsats and the Shimelba] sheltering Eritrean refugees in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, belying government claims that the conflict in the dissident region is largely over.

“Recent satellite imagery indicates that structures in both camps are being intentionally targeted. The systematic and widespread fires are consistent with an intentional campaign to deny the use of the camp.” said a UK based analyst, Isaac Baker.

Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General 08.01.2021

We, along with our partners, have been able to access areas that have been previously inaccessible. Localized fighting and insecurity continues, with fighting reported in rural areas and around Mekelle, Shiraro and Shire, in the Tigray province.

Access to most parts of north-western, eastern and central Tigray remains constrained due to the ongoing insecurity and bureaucratic hurdles, and two of the four refugee camps in the region (Hitsats and Shimelba) are still not accessible.

… We estimate that 2.3 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance in Tigray, including 1.3 million additional people due to the conflict and over 950,000 people already there, including refugees.

A glimpse into the health impact of Tigray war, OCHA, 08.01.2021

Only 5 out of 40 hospitals in Tigray are physically accessible, while four additional hospitals are reachable through mobile network. Apart from those in Mekelle, the remaining hospitals are looted and many reportedly destroyed, which, in addition to the insecure environment and non-payment of salaries, has halted basic health services and displaced staff.

The interruption of COVID-19 surveillance and control activities for over a month in the region, coupled with mass displacements and overcrowded conditions in displacement setting is feared to have facilitated massive community transmission of the pandemic.

Full and unrestricted humanitarian access must be granted. EU

The top 10 crises the world should be watching in 2021. The International Rescue Committee’s annual Emergency Watchlist.

War Crimes of Eritrean Troops in Tigray, reported by Jan Nyssen, full professor of geography at Ghent University (Belgium). Here is an excerpt from the report on some of the incidents observed by eyewitnesses in and around Adigrat:

  • On 18 November, Eritrean soldiers killed 59 civilians inside their houses in the border town of Zalambessa;
  • On 24 November, Eritrean soldiers drove a pick-up truck with machine guns through the central street of Adigrat and shot indiscriminately at shops, private residences, and passers-by. Several civilians were reportedly killed and wounded, including women and children;
  • On 25 November, a group of 8 – 15 citizens (according to different witnesses) stood guard at the Addis Pharmaceutical Factory in Adigrat when they were handcuffed and executed by Eritrean soldiers;
  • On 25 November, Eritrean soldiers shot 8 civilians inside their houses in the town of Hawzen.
  • On 30 November, Eritrean troops killed more than 80 people in the Church compound of Maryam Dengelat, situated 5 kilometres to SW of Idaga Hamus;
  • Staff of Dashen Brewery in Gondar informed us that their Branch Manager in Adigrat, ayte11 Isayas Asgedom, was also murdered that day at Maryam Dengelat, together with his family;
  • Around 2 – 12 December, 24 men in the village of Abraha Atsbaha were ordered by Eritrean troops to dig graves for fallen soldiers. When the men had finished, they were executed by Eritrean soldiers;
  • Around 1 – 14 December, 13 boys aged 12 – 15 years old from the village of Tokot near Idaga Hamus were ordered by Eritrean troops to load looted materials onto a truck. When they had finished, the 13 boys were shot dead by the Eritrean soldiers.
  • Around 12 – 14 December, Eritrean troops looted the Negash mosque, the most ancient centre of Islam outside Arabia, which has also been shelled. 81 (mostly Orthodox Christian) villagers were killed while trying to protect the holy site from looting;
  • Wukro has been heavily damaged mainly by organised looting, including St Mary College and the Catholic mission; the Sheba Leather Factory has been destroyed and local youth protecting the place killed in big numbers; and
  • Around 17 – 20 December, 750 inhabitants of the town of Aksum were killed by Eritrean troops when they tried to prevent them from looting the Maryam Tsion Church in the town.

Podcast

International Crisis Group. 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021.

IPIS Briefing December 2020 – Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict

Sudan declares full control of border territory settled by Ethiopians | 31 December 2020 | Reuters

Sudan said on Thursday its forces had taken control of all of Sudanese territory in a border area settled by Ethiopian farmers, after weeks of clashes.

Is Ethiopia the Next Yugoslavia? | 31 December 2020 | Foreign Policy

A country that once seemed to hold great promise for peaceful democratization has descended into conflict. Here’s what could happen next.

Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict revives bitter disputes over land | 30 December 2020 | Business Recorder

As rifle-toting militiamen fired celebratory rounds into the air, young men marched through the streets denouncing the former ruling party of Ethiopia’s Tigray region as “thieves.”

Reuters cameraman detained in Ethiopia has seen no evidence against him, lawyer says | 30 December 2020 | Reuters

Reuters cameraman Kumerra Gemechu has been held in solitary confinement for nearly a week without charge or being given any evidence of wrongdoing, his lawyer said.

Arrest of Cameraman in Ethiopia Signals Wider Crackdown | 29 December 2020 | NYT

The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has stepped up the arrests of journalists since going to war in the country’s northern region of Tigray.

Tigray crisis: Eritrea’s role in Ethiopian conflict | 28 December 2020 | BBC News

In a sign of the changing political fortunes of a man who was once a pariah, Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki has proven to be a staunch ally of Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize winner and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, giving his troops much-needed support to fight the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Tigray.

Ethiopian police arrest Reuters cameraman | 28 December 2020 | Reuters

A Reuters cameraman, Kumerra Gemechu, was arrested in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on Thursday and will be kept in custody for at least two weeks, his family said. He has not been charged.

Ethiopia accused of war crimes in Mai Kadra massacre | 27 December 2020 | Morning Star

Investigations into potential war crimes committed during Ethiopia’s military offensive against the northern Tigray region must be impartial, thorough and transparent, the United Nations said today.

Ethiopia: Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union | 25 December 2020 | Council of the EU

The European Union is closely following the crisis in Ethiopia. The EU remains concerned by the humanitarian situation, as well as allegations of human rights violations and ethnic targeting. Ongoing reports of non-Ethiopian involvement raise additional worries.

The secret war in Tigray | 23 December 2020 | Ethiopia Insight

The intervention has been covert to mask the involvement of Eritrean troops, control the narrative, and obscure civilian suffering. International action is needed.

Eritrea: Who Will Call Out Eritrea’s War Crimes in Tigray? | 23 December 2020 | African Arguments | AllAfrica

Eritrea has deployed most of its army in Tigray region of Ethiopia. This is no secret. At minimum, 12 divisions have been fighting inside Tigray. At first, the United States gave Eritrea a free pass, expressing “thanks to Eritrea for not being provoked” into retaliating after a TPLF rocket attack on Asmara. Later it admitted that Eritrea was a belligerent. The United Nations Secretary General repeated Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed’s assertion that Eritrean troops had not crossed the border. The Chairperson of the African Union has carefully said nothing on the issue.

U.N. pushes for war crimes probe in Tigray (video) | 23 December 2020 | Reuters

The United Nations has appealed for tens of millions of dollars to help refugees from Ethiopia’s Tigray and wants a team on the ground in the northern Ethiopian region to investigate alleged violations of human rights.

Violations of International Law Imperil Civilians in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region | 22 December 2020 | VoA News

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michele Bachelet, is warning that civilians in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are in extreme peril amid allegations of widespread violations, some possibly amounting to war crimes.

Tigray: Hundreds of civilians reported killed in artillery strikes, warns UN rights chief | 22 December 2020 | UN News

Reports of artillery strikes on civilians and mass killings of non-combatants in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, must be investigated and full access granted to independent investigators, UN rights chief Michelle Bachelet said on Tuesday.

Le Tigré, en Ethiopie, une région en souffrance | 22 December 2020 | RTBF

L’Ethiopie est un pays d’Afrique particulièrement marqué par la diversité de ses peuples. On y trouve plus de 80 ethnies différentes dispersées géographiquement. Cette diversité de cultures fait de l’Ethiopie une terre particulièrement riche mais aussi fertile aux conflits.

Éthiopie: un rapport documente les atrocités commises dans le Tigré | 20 December 2020 | RFI

Depuis le début du conflit dans le Tigré, au nord de l’Éthiopie, le 4 novembre, près de 50 000 réfugiés ont traversé la frontière pour trouver refuge au Soudan voisin. Leurs témoignages ont été recueillis par la presse internationale qui s’est fait l’écho de leurs histoires individuelles. Un rapport basé sur plusieurs de ces témoignages, publié le vendredi 18 décembre, permet de mieux comprendre ce qui s’est déroulé, pendant un mois, dans cette province éthiopienne coupée du monde.

Éthiopie: poursuite des combats au Tigré, menace d’extension du conflit | 19 December 2020 | RFI

En Éthiopie, les combats continuent au Tigré sans que l’on puisse savoir exactement où ils se situent car les télécommunications sont toujours coupées dans l’ensemble de la province. Cela fait désormais 45 jours que le Premier ministre Abiy Ahmed a lancé son offensive. Une opération qu’il estime terminée bien qu’aucun des leaders du parti du tigréen TPLF n’ait été arrêté pour le moment.

Ethiopia offers reward for word on fugitive Tigrayan leaders | 18 December 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia offered a 10 million birr ($260,000) reward on Friday for information on the location of fugitive leaders of a rebellious force in northern Tigray region.

The War in Tigray Is a Fight Over Ethiopia’s Past—and Future | 18 December 2020 | Foreign Policy

The current conflict is the latest battle in a long-running war over the country’s identity as a unitary or federal state. The United States can restore its credibility as an honest broker by helping resolve it.

Sudan claims its officers were ambushed by Ethiopian forces | 17 December 2020 | DefenceWeb

A number of Sudan armed forces officers were ambushed by “Ethiopian forces and militias” during a security patrol of the border region.

Inside a Military Base in Ethiopia’s Tigray: Soldiers Decry Betrayal by Former Comrades | 17 December 2020 | US News

Rebellious soldiers used government tanks to attack their former comrades in a military base in the first chaotic days of Ethiopia’s month-long war in the region of Tigray, according to two soldiers caught in what they described as a 10-day siege.

Ethnic profiling of Tigrayans heightens tensions in Ethiopia | 16 December 2020 | The New Humanitarian

The fighting between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) wasn’t a surprise to Tigrayans living in Addis Ababa: They had seen it coming for years. What they didn’t expect was to be living in fear so far away from the front lines.

Did Ethiopia’s attack on Tigray violate international laws? | 15 December 2020 | The Africa Report

A legal scholar weighs in on the decision taken by Ethiopian prime minister Ahmed Abiy to send troops into the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, to quell what the government sees as an insurgency.

Ruling party members speak of need to repeat Tigray military operation in Benishangul Gumuz as Amhara region | 15 December 2020 | Addis Standard

Members of the Benishangul Gumuz Regional State Prosperity Party (PP) Women’s League have demanded the federal government to repeat in Benishangul Gumuz regional state, Metekel Zone the ongoing “law enforcement operations in Tigray.”

Mekelle’s plight: A doctor’s account of Ethiopia’s Tigray war | 14 December 2020 | al Jazeera

Doctor at regional capital’s main hospital offers dramatic account of dire medical shortages, threat of starvation and widespread fear during the conflict.

US says reports of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia’s Tigray are ‘credible’ | 11 December 2020 | DefenceWeb

The United States believes reports of Eritrean military involvement in the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are “credible,” a State Department spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday, despite denials by both nations.

Ethiopia volatile with fighting, ethnic profiling of Tigrayans – UN rights boss | 9 December 2020 | Reuters

The situation in Ethiopia is “worrying and volatile” as fighting in the Tigray region continues amid reports of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans including in Addis Ababa, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said on Wednesday.

Ethiopie : Accès interdit au Tigray | 9 December 2020 | Sahel Intelligence

Le Secrétaire général de l’ONU, Antonio Guterres, a exhorté le gouvernement éthiopien à rétablir rapidement l’état de droit au Tigray et assurer un accès sans entrave de l’aide humanitaire dans la région.

Ethiopia says U.N. team shot at in Tigray after defying checkpoints | 8 December 2020 | Reuters

A United Nations team visiting refugees in Ethiopia’s war-hit Tigray region had failed to stop at two checkpoints when it was shot at over the weekend, the government said on Tuesday, proclaiming it did not need a “baby-sitter”.

Eritreans caught in dilemma over Tigray conflict | 7 December 2020 | Ethiopia Insight

Many Eritreans, including those that oppose President Isaias Afwerki’s rule, are in a dilemma regarding the conflict in Tigray. Most Eritreans agree that he is the mastermind of it and stand against any involvement by their country. There is also a die-hard few that believe he is doing this in the interests of Eritrea.

Ethiopia’s Abiy Denies Guerrilla War Emerging in Tigray | 7 December 2020 | VoA

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed denied on Monday that a rebellious northern force his troops have battled for over a month would have the capacity to mount a guerrilla war from the mountains of Tigray.

La guerre du Tigré, prélude à l’éclatement de l’Ethiopie sur le modèle de l’ex Yougoslavie ? | 6 December 2020 | Atlantico.fr

Depuis plus d’un mois déjà, une guerre particulièrement meurtrière secoue le nord de l’Ethiopie dans la province fédérale du Tigré. Elle a déjà causé des milliers de morts et plus de 50.000 réfugiés aujourd’hui accueillis dans des conditions précaires au Soudan.

‘Now I have nothing’: Tigray conflict has changed Ethiopia for ever, say refugees | 6 December 2020 | The Guardian

Before shelling by Ethiopia’s army ripped through Humera in early November, life in the airy, agricultural city in Tigray was idyllic, says Brhane Haftu, a geography teacher.

En marge du conflit au Tigré, l’armée soudanaise reprend une partie du triangle d’el-Fashaga | 6 December 2020 | RFI

La tension monte à la frontière entre l’Éthiopie et le Soudan, notamment dans la région du triangle d’el-Fashaga, une zone dont la démarcation pose problème entre les deux pays depuis des décennies. Or, à la faveur du conflit au Tigré, l’armée soudanaise a pris possession d’une partie de ce territoire agricole.

Fighting flares in Ethiopia’s Tigray as army says closing in on rebellious force | 5 December 2020 | Reuters

Bombing, looting and skirmishes persisted in parts of Ethiopia’s Tigray on Saturday, a rebellious force in the northern region said after government troops declared they were within days of capturing the group’s leaders.

Eritrea’s Role in Ethiopia’s Conflict and the Fate of Eritrean Refugees in Ethiopia | 4 December 2020 | African Arguments

In the following article, Mesfin Hagos (founding member of the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) in the 1970s who served as Minister of Defense in the 1990s), the most authoritative voice on Eritrean military affairs, reveals the extent of Eritrean involvement in the Ethiopian war.

Ethiopia’s war in Tigray shows no signs of abating, despite government’s victory claims | 4 December 2020 | The Washington Post

Clashes continued across Ethiopia’s Tigray region and humanitarian aid remained paused at its border Friday, despite government claims that military operations had ceased and pledges to allow U.N. agencies access to hundreds of thousands of people who rely on them for food.

Ethiopie : les 5 clés pour comprendre la guerre au Tigré | 4 December 2020 | Agence Ecofin

Depuis plusieurs semaines, la région du Tigré en Ethiopie est le théâtre d’un conflit sanglant entre le gouvernement central siégeant à Addis-Abeba et le Front pour la libération du peuple du Tigré (TPLF). Au cœur de ce nouvel épisode de guerre civile, des revendications indépendantistes du TPLF qui ne reconnaît plus l’autorité du pouvoir central. Mais les racines de ce conflit sont plus profondes. Il est en réalité le résultat de frustrations et de tensions accumulées, dues au passé politique de l’Ethiopie et à son système de gouvernance. Décryptage.

Ethnic Cleansing Feared as Ethiopia Wages War on Tigray Region Amid Communication Blackout | 3 December 2020 | DemocracyNow

The United Nations has reached a deal with Ethiopia’s government to allow humanitarian access to the northern Tigray region and start providing aid. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched military action against regional forces one month ago, setting off a bloody conflict and adding to the already alarming number of displaced people and refugees in the country and neighboring nations.

Why Ethiopia’s Tensions Are Boiling Over in Tigray | 3 December 2020 | The Washington Post

Long-standing tensions between Ethiopia’s federal government and the northern state of Tigray have escalated into all-out conflict. In early November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered the military to respond to a raid on an army camp in the restive region. After almost four weeks of fighting, Abiy said his forces had taken full control of Tigray.

Le Tigré sera-t-il le tombeau de l’Éthiopie ? | 3 December 2020 | Le Point

ANALYSE. La rébellion au Tigré menace d’aboutir à une sécession qui pourrait en entraîner d’autres et mettre à mal le fédéralisme ethnique éthiopien. Voilà pourquoi.

Tigray: War drums were sounding for two years | 3 December 2020 | The Standard

I grew up in Ethiopia during the days of the military government. For years before its overthrow in 1991, the national army was locked in a protracted war against rebel movements in the north. It was common in those days to hear state media reporting the capture or recapture of towns from rebel forces. The parading of prisoners of war made daily headlines.

Ethiopia war may turn into guerrilla insurgency, experts say | 2 December 2020 | DefenceWeb

Ethiopia’s nearly month-long war against rebellious northern forces may be transforming into a guerrilla conflict, experts said on Tuesday, even though federal troops declared victory after capturing the Tigrayan regional capital at the weekend.

Éthiopie : les principales dates du conflit armé au Tigré | 30 November 2020 | TV5 Monde

Les hôpitaux de Mekele sont débordés. Depuis l’annonce de la prise de contrôle de la capitale du Tigré par le gouvernement éthiopien, les blessés affluent. Les civils sont les premières victimes de la vaste opération militaire lancée le 4 novembre par le Premier ministre Abiy Ahmed. Aucun bilan précis n’est disponible, mais plus de 43.000 Ethiopiens ont fui au Soudan voisin. Comment est né ce conflit armé ? Qui en sont les principaux acteurs ? Rappel des faits.

Ethiopia’s PM savours victory, Tigrayan leader says war not finished | 30 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed lauded his troops on Monday for ousting a rebellious northern movement, but the leader of Tigrayan forces said they were still resisting amid fears of a protracted guerrilla conflict.

Once enemies, Ethiopia and Eritrea ally against Tigray | 29 November 2020 | DW

Eritrea has been involved in the Tigray crisis in Ethiopia from day one, experts have said. But even though the two countries are fighting together against a common enemy, that does not make them friends.

Separatism in Africa: Exploring colonial legacies | 3 December 2020 | DW

Diverse secessionist movements are back in the spotlight in Africa. The Tigray Region in Ethiopia is only one example. The roots often go back to the colonial era, and some of these conflicts still smolder today.

Tigray War – Useful Links

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Daily Briefing Highlights and Tigray Region Humanitarian Update

UNDaily Press Briefings by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General.

Europe External Programme with Africa (EEPA), Daily Situation Reports and others.

TGHAT, A list of victims of Genocide in Tigray compiled from different sources.

BBC. Tigray Crisis.

Jan Nysen, Professor of Geography at Ghent University (Belgium) The Situation in Tigray by the end of 2020

Solomon Negash, News and commentaries.

 

The list will regularly be updated.

Ethiopia among top five in the International Rescue Committee’s 2021 Emergency Watchlist

Ethiopia features on the International Rescue Committee’s annual Emergency Watchlist for the third year in a row but rises into the top five for the first time due to escalating conflict.

Here are four reasons Ethiopia is one of the countries most at risk of humanitarian catastrophe in 2021, for the third year in a row:

  • Conflict in the Tigray region sparks refugee movements amid allegations of violence against civilians.
  • Ongoing political tensions increase the risk of instability across the country.
  • COVID-19 more than doubles the number of people in need of humanitarian aid.
  • Ethiopia is the epicenter of the largest locust outbreak in decades.

Read full story here.

ዋዕላ ሱዳን፣ ግብጺን ኢትዮጵያን ኣብ ጉዳይ ግድብ ህዳሴ

ጽባሕ ሰንበት (10.01.2001 GC) ሱዳን፣ ግብጺን ኢትዮጵያን ህዳሴ ግድብ አመልኪተን ክዝትያ እዬን።

አብዚ ሰሙን ሱዳን ብዝተፈላለየ መንገዲ ጠንካራ ቅዋማ ክትገልጽ ጸኒሓ እላ።

በሶኒ ናይ ሰለስቲአን ሀገራት ሚንስትራት ሀፍቲ ማይን ቴክኒካል መራሕትን ክመያየጡ ብውድብ ሕቡራት አፍሪካ (ኤዩ) አብ ዝተዳለወ መድረኽ፣ “ኤዩ ብቅጥዒ ናይ ምምራሕ ዓቅሚ ስለዘይብሉ፣ አብቲ መድረኽ አይሳተፍን” ኢላ ነጺጋቶ ነይራ።

ጎን ንጎኒ ድማ ብጉልበት አብ ዝተቆጻጸረቶ መሬት አልፋሽቃ አራጢጣ ኮፍ ኢላ፣ “ዶብና ንጠርረሉ እዋን ሕዚ እዩ” እንዳበለት ኣብ መንግስቲ ኢትዮጵያ ጸቅጢ ክትገብር ቀንያ አላ።

ኤርትራ አብ ዘየእታው አትያ ንሱዳን ክትወግእ ከምዝጸነሐት ንማሕበረሰብ ዓለም ፍለጡለይ ክትብል አውን ቀንያ አላ።

በዚ ዝተለዓለ ሻዕቢያ ብአደባባይ ፈኸረ ካብ ምስማዕ ሓሊፉ ሰራዊቱ አጓዓዒዙ ቦታ-ቦታ ከምዘትሐዘን፣ አብ ዝኾነ እዋን አድላይ ስጉምቲ ክወስድ ከምዝኽእልን አፍሊጡ አሎ።

ካብኡ ሓሊፉ ሻዕቢያ “ምስ ግብጺ ሸሪኾም ህዳሴ ግድብ ተሀኒጹ ከይውዳእ ዕንቅፋት ንዝኾኑ ዘለዉ ሓይሊታት ምስ ኢትዮጵያ ብምሕባር ስጉምቲ ክንወስደሉ ኢና” ብምባል አሰላልፋኡ አንጻር ግብጺ ምዃኑ ብዕሊ ገሊጹ አሎ።

ግብጺ፣ ሱዳንን ፈተውተን አዕራብ ሀገራትን ብሓደ ገጽ፤ ኤርትራ፣ ኢዮጵያን ኢመሬትን ብኻሊእ ገጽ ናብ ሓያል ኲናት የምርሓ ከምዘለዋ ካብ ዝተፈላለዩ ዜናታት ንምረዳእ ተኻኢሉ አሎ።

ሰለስቲአን ሀገራት ጽባሕ ዝገብርኦ ድርድር ነቲ ዘሎ ውጥረት ከየፈንድኦ ተሰጊኡ አሎ።

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 50 – 09 January 2021

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • The ENDF has announced that next to the nine officials that it captured, they have also killed four other Tigrayan officials. The officials killed are the TPLF spokesman, the former head of the Tigray finance bureau, and two other core members. The ENDF did not detail how the four men were killed.
  • The ENDF reinforcements that were seen moving towards Mekelle at the beginning of the week have reached Alamata. The force consists of 8 tanks, 20 buses, and 5 heavy trucks.
  • Heavy gunfire has been reported in Mekelle and its outskirts. Heavy artillery bombing was reported in Wukro, North of Mekelle.
  • Report that Maryam Tsiyon Church has been attacked (local people believe with the aim to take the Ark of Covenant to Addis Ababa). Hundreds of people hiding in the Maryam Tsiyon Church were brought out and shot on the square in front. The number of people killed is reported as 750.
  • Satellite images have detected a fire in Baeker, Humera. Fighting has been reported in that area.
  • Reported in social media that the Sudanese army would have evidence of participation of Eritrean troops in the war between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed border area, Al-Fashqa.
  • Reported that Eritrean troops are currently in all administrative zones in Tigray, except the Southern zone. This includes: Tekeze area, Adigoshu, Maywoini (Geyts), Fresalem (Edris), Adebay, Ousman, Jebel, Humera, Rawyan, Bereket (Western); Shire, Endebagina, Selekleka, Adihageray, Adinebried, Sheraro, Semema (North Western); Wukro Maray, Aksum, Adwa, Rama, Egela, Zana (Central); Adigrat, Edaga Hamus, Wukro, Hawzen (Eastern).
  • Extreme looting reported in the Gheralta area, and Hawzen has been seriously damaged (‘destroyed’).
  • Another list of names of civilian victims in the districts of Gheralta and Enderta (Tigray) has emerged. Reportedly, the victims were killed by Eritrean troops. All the names on the list are of men.
  • Reported that Eritrean soldiers use Ethiopian military uniforms as disguise but local people recognise them easily as they speak Tigrigna with an Eritrean accent. Mostly, especially in Western Tigray, the Eritrean troops are wearing the uniforms of the Eritrean army, according to reports.
  • A second humanitarian worker from Dutch humanitarian NGO ZOA has also been killed in the Hitsats refugee camp, where heavy fighting is reported.
  • According to the UN OCHA fighting in Tigray continues, among other locations, in the Mekelle Periphery, Shire, and Shiraro. The fighting has stopped the deployment of some of its missions.
  • Unconfirmed: Sebhat Nega, 86, the co-founder of the TPLF, was arrested in a remote valley, together with defected officers from the Northern Command. Sebhat Nega, also referred to as ‘Aboy Sebhat’ (‘father Sebhat’) is a retired political intellectual, former director of the Tigray Endowment Fund and director of a think tank, the Foreign Relations Strategic Study Institute in Addis Ababa until 2018.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • The Vice-Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, General M.H. Dugalo (‘Hemiti’ or ‘Hamediti’) met with Eritrean President Isaias in Asmara on Friday. The visit followed accusations that Eritrea is involved in the war on the Ethiopia-Sudan border. The visit was reported as a failure.  President Ramaphosa of South Africa has said that the AU appointed Special Envoys on Tigray will visit the Tigray area soon.
  • President Kiir of South Sudan has called on the Sudanese government to reach a settled negotiation with Ethiopia. He made the comments following a meeting with al-Din Kabbashi, a member of the Sovereign Council, and Omer Gamar Eldin, the acting Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • The Global Center for the Responsibility to Protect is urging states with significant military ties to Ethiopia, to withhold military assistance until all war crimes and human rights violations have been investigated, and their perpetrators held accountable.
  • A demonstration has taken place in The Hague, the Netherlands, organised by Tigray and Eritrean members of the diaspora, demanding that Eritrean troops leave Tigray immediately.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • UN OCHA states in a report that the situation in Tigray remains volatile. While, it believes that the situation has been improving, access to food, water, and medical supplies remains limited. The report has identified that looting of humanitarian supplies and equipment continues in some areas, including Kuiha and Lachi.
  • The UN OCHA report identifies that 4.5 million people needing emergency assistance, of which 2.2 million IDPs. However only 77 thousand people in Mekelle and 25 thousand in Mai Ayni and Adi Harush refugee camps have received food support from the UN and its partners.
  • UN OCHA reports that it still does not have access to Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps. Bureaucratic constraints and lack of security has made it more difficult to access many areas of Tigray.
  • Sources disagree with UN OCHA’s assessment that things are going back to normal in Mekelle, Alamata, and Mehoni. Fighting has still been taking place in the area, and people are being prevented from leaving. Moreover, a critical lack of many supplies still exists in the area.
  • Demtsi Woyane, DW, a TPLF aligned broadcast, has released further footage of a heavily looted buildings of Mekelle University. Multiple departments have been completely emptied.
  • Since mid-November the accounts of EFFORT, the umbrella to which many companies in Tigray belong, have been frozen and reports show that its huge assets are now being ‘redistributed’ in Ethiopia.

Refugee Situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • Ethiopian refugees in Sudan have told The World on their experiences in the conflict. A witness recounts how on his flight to Sudan he Ethiopian Federal Troops were accompanied by Eritrean soldiers. They proceeded to shoot his son twice and left him to die.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.pri.org/stories/2021-01-05/sudan-ethiopian-refugees-tell-their-stories
https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-tigray-region-humanitarian-update-situation-report-6-january-2021
https://africanarguments.org/2021/01/eritrea-in-the-tigray-war-what-we-know-and-why-it-might-backfire/
https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/finance-and-policy/tigray-conflict-could-delay-grand-renaissance-dam-negotiations/
https://www.globalr2p.org/publications/atrocity-alert-no-234-ethiopia-china-and-niger/

በትግራይ ጦርነቱ አሁንም እንደ ቀጠለ ነው ሲል ተመድ ገለጸ

የተመድ ልኡካን አዲስ በለቀቁት ሪፖርት እንደገለጹት ከሆነ በትግራይ አሁንም አለመረጋጋቱ ቀጥሏል።

ሪፖርቱ እስከተጠናቀረበት ድረስ በመቀለ፣ ሽረና ሸራሮ ዙሪያ በበርካታ ቦታዎች ጦርነቱ እንደቀጠለ ነው።  ልዑካኑ ወደ ሽረና ሽራሮ መጓዝ እንዳልቻለ ገልጿል።

የተባበሩት መንግስታት የሰብዓዊ ጉዳዮች ማስተባበሪያ ጽህፈት ቤት  (UN OCHA) በታህሳስ ወር በሁለት ቡድን ወደ ትግራይ ተጉዞ ጥናት ካደረገ ብኋላ በለቀቀው ሪፖርት መሰረት፣ በጦርነት በተጎዳው ክልል ውስጥ ከ4.5 ሚሊዮን በላይ ሰዎች አስቸኳይ የምግብ ዕርዳታ እንደሚያስፈልጋቸው የገለጸ ሲሆን፣ ከጦርነቱ ወዲህ የምግብ እርዳታ ያገኙ ሰዎች 100 ሺ እንደማይሞሉ ለማወቅ ተችሏል።

በተጨማሪም ጦርነቱ ከተቀሰቀሰ በኋላ 2.2 ሚሊዮን የክልሉ ኗሪዎች ከቀያቸው መፈናቀላቸውን ጠቁሟል።

በፀጥታና በቢሮክራሲያዊ መሰናክሎች ምክንያት የከተማ አካባቢዎችን ብቻ ለመገምገም እንደተገደደ የገለጸው የልኡካን ቡድኑ፣ በክልሉ ውሱን የምግብ አቅርቦት እንዳለና ከፍተኛ የዋጋ ጭማሪ እየታየ መሆኑን በሪፖርቱ አመላክቷል። የባንክ አገልግሎት ስለመጀመሩ የተገለጸ ነገር የለም።

የልዑካን ቡድኑ በጉብኝቱ “ደካማ የመንግስት አገልግሎቶች፣ አስከፊ የኑሮ ሁኔታ እና የሰብአዊ ጉዳዮች እንዳሉ” መታዘቡን በሪፖርቱ አመላክቷል ፡፡

በርካታ ንብረቶች እንደወደሙና እንደተዘረፉ ያመላከተው ሪፖርቱ፣ በክልሉ ከሚገኙ 40 ሆስፒታሎች ውስጥ በሽተኞችን በአካል ተቀብለው በማስተናገድ አገልግሎት መስጠት የሚችሉት 5 ብቻ መሆናቸውን ገልጿል። ከነዚህ በተጨማሪ አራት ሆስፒታሎች የስልክ አገልግሎት ብቻ ይሰጣሉ ብሏል።

የኤርትራ ወታደሮችም በውጊያው መሳተፋቸውን የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ሲክድ የቆየ ቢሆንም፣ የንግድ ተቋማትን በመዝረፍ እና ስደተኞችን አፍኖ በመውሰድ የኤርትራ ወታደሮች ተሰማርተው ማየታቸውን ማብራሪያ እንዲሰጡ የተጠየቁ የእርዳታ ሰራተኞች እና ዲፕሎማቶች ገልጸዋል፡፡

የሰሜን እዝ አዛዥ ሜጀር ጄነራል በላይ ስዩም እና በፌደራል መንግስት የተሾመው ጊዜያዊው የመቀለ ከንቲባ አቶ አታክልቲ ወልደስላሴ በተናጠል ከመቀለ ኗሪዎች ጋር ባደረጉት ውይይት የኤርትራ ወታደሮች በትግራይ እንደሚገኙ ማመናቸው ይታወሳል።

ሰ.ነ. 

 

Eritreiske styrker deltok i Tigray-kamper, ifølge etiopisk militæroffiser

Abc Nyheter | Eritreiske sikkerhetsstyrker var aktive i konflikten i Tigray i nabolandet Etiopia, opplyser en offiser i det etiopiske forsvaret.

Tigray-flyktninger har opplyst at eritreiske sikkerhetsstyrker angrep og bortførte eritreiske flyktninger, i tillegg til lokale Tigray-innbyggere.

Både Tigray-opprørere og USA har også meldt om eritreisk deltakelse.

Eritreiske myndigheter nekter for at landets sikkerhetsstyrker var aktive i konflikten.

Den etiopiske hæren startet i november en omfattende militæroffensiv mot opprørere i den nordlige Tigray-regionen. Titusenvis flyktet, og FN har varslet om grove menneskerettighetsbrudd.

Etiopias fredsprisvinnende statsminister Abiy Ahmed Ali erklærte seier i desember.

(©NTB)

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 47 – 08 January 2021

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • Reported that ethnic Tigray soldiers being suspended and/or returned from Ethiopian peace-keeping missions are imprisoned by the Ethiopian Federal Government.
  • Reported that ethnic Tigrayan military attachés in Ethiopian diplomatic services abroad are sacked.
  • Reported that Eritrean soldiers were ambushed by Tigrayan forces East of Wukro.
  • Pictures have emerged of the ambush between Mekoni and Mekelle. Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) forces were ambushed by Tigray forces.
  • Report that Eritrean forces occupy Hitsats town in Tigray and control the area, including a refugee camp which hosts 25.000 refugees from Eritrea. The camp has still not been reached by humanitarian organisations and refugees and communities have been without food supplies for over two months.
  • The ENDF released the names of 9 senior TPLF members they have captured, according to the report.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • An Eritrean delegation has met with the Chairman of the Sovereign Council Al-Burhan of Sudan. They discussed regional security and tried to strengthen bilateral ties and regional security. The Eritreans reportedly offered to mediate the conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan. Sudan rejected the offer.
  • One of the leading African Constitutional and Human rights law experts, Paulos Tesfagiorgis, has argued that the peace process that the AU initiated to solve the conflict in Tigray was undermined by the AU Commission chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, from the beginning. According to Tesfagiorgis, Mahamat was “blatantly partisan” and undermined the peacemaking process.
  • Tesfagiorgis argues that the Chairperson’s position “violates the letter and spirit of the African Union and IGAD constitutive documents and numerous subsequent resolutions,..” Mahamat undermined any chances of peace and the principles that the regional and continental bodies pursue, he states.
  • It was earlier reported that a proposal at the 38th Extraordinary Conference of IGAD for the AU Commission Chairperson, Mahamat, to visit Tigray was withdrawn from the communiqué.
  • Tesfagiorgis also stated that “Today there is alarming news of starvation in Eritrea. The regime has politicized the issue of the virus and opted to use it as a weapons to starve and weaken the people by enforcing lockdown without the means to feed them.”
  • Eritrea has taken complete lock-down measures. A source from Eritrea reported the COVID-spread is ‘devastating’, reporting that doctors, drivers and government officials have reportedly been infected.
  • The UN fears that the recent conflict in Tigray has facilitated massive COVID-19 community transmission in Tigray. Other sources suggested the conflict has facilitated the spread across all involved regions, including Eritrea.
  • Sudan has confirmed the arrival of more refugees from Ethiopia. The humanitarian official said that most refugees cross at night, to avoid military patrols on the border, stopping refugees from crossing.
  • The Ethiopian government has denied that more Ethiopian troops had been placed on the border to prevent refugees from crossing into Sudan.
  • The Council for the Arab States of the Gulf encourages members to cooperate with Sudan.
  • No agreement has yet been reached on reopening negotiations on the GERD dam. Sudan and Egypt disagree on the role that AU experts should play during the negotiations.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • In its recent report crisis NGO ACAPS ranks humanitarian access in Ethiopia with Very High Access Constraints. Areas not under the control of the government remain inaccessible for humanitarian aid.
  • ACAPS states that the border with Sudan has been partially closed since the Tigray conflict started.
  • The associate director of Human Rights Watch has said that it is essential to allow unhindered access to Tigray. With estimations on the number of IDPs ranging from 200 thousand (by the UN) to over 2 million (by the interim Tigray government), it is important to have unhindered access to reach them.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • The majority of the displaced people in the area have returned home, but most of their belongings have been looted. The UN has observed massive damage and vandalisation to public health centres. Infrastructure and other public buildings urgently need repairs.
  • The UN has only provided food relief to Mekelle and Mai Ayni and Adi Harush refugee camps. It would appear that until now no food has been provided to the camps Shemelba and Hitsats, home to 50.000 Eritrean refugees. These have not received food since October last year.

International Situation (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held a viral meeting on Wednesday. They discussed various challenges and initiatives for the promotion of peace and security. UN Chief Antonio Gutteres expressed support for the AU “silence the guns” initiative. Liberia’s former President, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, called on the Council to take bold steps towards ending conflicts.
  • President Kenyatta of Kenya has laid out Kenya’s agenda for its year tenure of a non-permanent UNSC seat. It includes a greater role for Africa and the Global South, COVID-19 vaccines for Africa, and a revitalised multilateralism aimed at strengthening global peace and security.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1788376
https://www.unocha.org/story/daily-noon-briefing-highlights-ethiopia-8
https://www.acaps.org/country/world/special-reports#container-1592
https://africanarguments.org/2021/01/the-ethiopian-conflict-and-the-abrogation-of-the-au-mandate-by-the-commission-chairperson/