Allow me share my guess, as a new trend appears to be emerging in Tigray (read ትግርኛ version here).

Tigray is a war-torn region. In addition, the national economy has stagnated. Even if resources were distributed equitably, Tigray’s challenges would remain unresolved due to the overall scarcity of resources. Furthermore, as a continuation of the war, there is a deliberate failure to distribute the limited resources fairly. The federal budget allocated to Tigray has been reduced. There is no central government initiative to repair or rebuild properties destroyed during the war—let alone to make new investments. If such efforts were undertaken, they could create employment opportunities for some youth and help alleviate food insecurity for affected families. Instead, the federal government appears to have focused its efforts on sowing division among Tigrayans.

Moreover, it has become common practice in Tigray to squander natural resources (particularly gold), embezzle the meager allocated budget, misappropriate aid money and food, and divert funds collected from the diaspora—ostensibly in the name of the people—for personal enrichment. Anarchy, kidnapping, rape, murder, and looting have increasingly become sources of terror and insecurity for the population. Additionally, the internal rift within the TPLF has been resolved through military means, paving the way for the imposition of military rule in the region.

Many TPLF cadres, particularly those who serve as spokespersons in the media, had become accustomed to a life of luxury in earlier times. However, the TPLF can no longer provide the allowances and benefits that once sustained their loyalty—except for a select few. Since their allegiance was not grounded in ideology or patriotism, but in self-interest, many are now willing to serve the highest bidder. Some have already aligned themselves with the Prosperity Party (PP). These individuals are likely to normalize the act of joining PP by presenting themselves as examples for disillusioned youth.

Opportunistic youth, disheartened by the current situation, may seek a more stable future by joining PP and following the lead of former TPLF figures who have switched sides. These defected leaders are expected to recruit loyal supporters, elevate them to positions of influence, and organize internally against their perceived adversaries.

It is difficult to believe that the new president is truly non-partisan. Even if he is neutral, we do not expect significant deviations from his predecessor’s approach—at least not until he consolidates his own political base. For now, tensions may appear subdued, but a resurgence remains highly probable. In the interim, this relative calm may provide an opportunity for cadres and youth with aspirations to join the PP. However, there are also reports that the TPLF is prepared to detain members suspected of sympathizing with defectors likely to align with the PP.