Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 54 – 13 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 12 January)

● Tigray regional forces have taken Adi Berak and Daero Tekli areas from ENDF and from Eritrean forces. These are strategic locations that connect Adwa with Eritrea via Rama, a town on the border.

● Report of heavy war initiated by the Tigray regional forces on the Ethiopian and Eritrean forces at Semema and Adi-Etay. Semema is about 35 km South of Aksum.

● Footage emerged showing many vehicles of ENDF and Eritrean forces were destroyed by Tigray forces near Wukro in Tigray, following an attack by Tigray forces on an ENDF convoy a week ago.

● Radio Erena is reporting the deployment of additional Eritrean troops to Tigray in Shire, Adwa, Adigrat. Such troops are instructed to remain in the area until the situation in Tigray ‘settles down’.

● Eritreans have been called up to report for military duty.

● It is reported that Eritrean wounded military troops are not being able to return home.

● Footage is emerging of Eritrean military involved in training of troops in the ENDF-alliance in Tigray.

● Some leaders and members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the regional government of Tigray, captured by ENDF and Eritrean troops, would have passed through Eritrea. The captives would have been taken to Eritrea before being handed to Ethiopia.

● It is specifically reported that the location of a picture showing Sebhat Nega, the co-founder of the TPLF, captured by soldiers, is recognised as Mai Edaga location. This is a place in Eritrea, approximately 48 km South of Asmara near the town of Dekemhare. This would point to a modus operandi in which captured TPLF members are abducted/taken to Eritrea and held there (for some time).

● Reported in Mekelle that people who are arrested can not be handed over as basic institutional structures have been destroyed.

● It was revealed by ETV that women were raped in Mekelle in the week following the takeover by the ENDF at the beginning of December; this was reported by an unidentified man in an Ethiopian military uniform who spoke of repeated abuses against women.

● Policemen in Mekelle say that they are not paid by the interim government appointed by Addis Ababa.

● Lists of 49 names of civilians who died in the Saint Mary’s Church of Dengelat, Tigray, is circulating.

● Tension is building on the Ethiopia – Sudan border in the Fashqa triangle area. Ethiopia went 5 km into Sudanese claimed territory and five female civilians and a child have been killed by Ethiopian troops; two women are missing, as reported by Sudan. Sudanese troops are building up in the disputed areas.

● The Foreign Ministry of Sudan condemns “in strongest terms Ethiopia’s militias aggression” in the Eastern Sudan Al-Fashqa triangle. Ethiopia has accused Sudan of expanding in its territories.

● Sudan called on the international community to condemn the aggression of the Ethiopian militias.

● The Ministry of Information of Sudan reports that there is no progress on the work of the Ethiopia – Sudan Border Commission.

● Ethiopia may take the issue of the GERD-dam to the UN Security Council, if negotiations are stalled.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 12 January)

● MSF teams have been able to enter Tigray, and reports that “tens of thousands of displaced people are living in abandoned buildings and on construction sites in western areas around Shire, Dansha, and Humera towns, while others found refuge in host communities in the east and south of the region.”

● MSF states that “people have very limited access to food, clean water, shelter, and healthcare.”

● MSF teams report “many people are still hiding in the mountains and in rural areas across the region.”

● According to the MSF teams the situation is dire: “power lines are cut, water supplies are not functional, telecommunications networks are down, banks are closed, and many people are afraid to return to their places of origin because of the ongoing insecurity.”

● Food is in very short supply as the war broke out during harvest time and farmers were already coping with the locust infestation.

● Many civilians in Tigray are not yet reached by any food supplies and families face additional burdens as relatives are moving in with them due to the massive displacements in the Tigray region.

● Between three and four million people have no access to basic health care in the Central Tigray alone, the MSF Teams estimate.

● Most of the internally displaced people in Mai Kadra and Humera have left, MSF reports.

● More than 60 civilians were killed in attacks in the Metekel zone in BenishangulGumuz regional state.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 12 January)

● Eritrean refugees in Addis Ababa are abducted to Eritrea by Eritrean troops in Ethiopia’s capital.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 12 January)

● Concern raised that Ethiopia and the Horn become increasingly part of the security landscape of the Middle East and that this is a geostrategic concern.

● Expert states that the characterisation of the Tigray crisis as a “domestic law enforcement operation” is undermined by the involvement of Eritrean forces, foreign drone attacks, use of airstrikes, mechanized ground units, and ethnic militias.

● Egyptian investors in Ethiopia will seek international arbitration to protect their investments in the Tigray region and a case will be filed if no agreement will be reached. The compensation on Egyptian investments due to the war in Tigray is estimated at 2 million US$.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Strong Defence on a Shoestring Budget: How Capable Are Ethiopia’s Armed Forces?

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Source: Military Watch Magazine

Ethiopia has long faced a precarious security situation, enduring threats from a number of sources including the Al Shabab militant group operating from neighbouring Somalia, territorial disputes with neighbouring Eritrea which is highly militarised and fields a relatively well trained force of over half a million, and the Egyptian Air Force due to ongoing possibility of attacks on Ethiopian damming infrastructure over water rights. Despite this, Ethiopia has maintained one of the smallest defence expenditures on the African continent relative to the size of its economy – allocating just 0.8% of GDP to the military. By contrast, the higher income economies of neighbouring Sudan and Egypt spend 2.6% and 1.7% respectively, while Eritrea is estimate to spend over 4% of GDP on its armed forces. Ethiopia’s expenditures amount to around $330 million per year, a very low figure to maintain a modern military. Despite its very conservative budget, the East African state has become a potent force capable of securing itself against numerous threats, with the European Union’s representative in East Africa Alexander Rondos having stated to this effect that the Ethiopians “scare the hell out of everybody” – Al Shabab included.

Ethiopia has in recent years invested in modernising its air defence capabilities, deploying Russian Pantsir air defence combat vehicles from 2019 and modernising its S-75 high altitude systems with modern electronic warfare countermeasures. Modernised S-75 systems have demonstrated the ability to seriously threaten fourth generation fighters in the past when properly used, and Ethiopian forces have compensated for one of the system’s primary weaknesses, their lack of mobility, by mounting them on the chassis of T-55 battle tanks to considerably improve their survivability. The Ethiopian Air Force is also among the most capable in Africa, ranked fourth on the continent in 2020, with a buildup of modern fourth generation fighters having begun in the mid-1990s during the country’s war with Eritrea. At the time, with Eritrea purchasing of MiG-29 medium weight fourth generation jets, Ethiopia acquired a sizeable fleet of 12-16 Su-27 heavyweight aircraft which were the most capable fighters available for export at the time. The Su-27 fleet has since seen some conservative modernisation efforts, although Ethiopia has not sought to expand their capabilities with more costly investments in R-77 active radar guided air to air missiles or Irbis-E radars as Russia has done under the Su-27SM2 program. Even without such upgrades Ethiopian Su-27s are still considered the sixth most capable fighters in Africa, after having been comfortably in first place when initially purchased. They are the only Su-27s in the world which have seen air to air combat against other fighter aircraft, downing four Eritrean MiG-29s during the war for no losses with kills primarily achieved within visual range.

Ethiopian Air Force Su-27 Heavyweight Fighters | ©Military Watch Magazine

To provide air support for its ground forces Ethiopia has reconfigured its second class of fighter, the third generation MiG-23, to deploy almost exclusively for such a role. It also deploys an unknown number of Su-25 attack jets and 18 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters, all of which are capable of providing close air support to ground units. Looking to ground units, the country deploys a respectable 135,000 man strong professional army, with North Korean Ch’onma Ho battle tanks and second hand Ukrainian T-72 tanks forming the bulk of its armoured units. Approximately 200 of each are in service. North Korea has also supplied VTT-323 APCs and M-1977 self propelled artillery systems, and has provided extensive assistance in developing a domestic arms industry capable of producing BM-21 rocket launchers, rocket propelled grenades, small arms and ammunition. These were set up in the mid 2000s, and Ethiopia has continued to benefit greatly from its defence ties to the East Asian state since.

The Ethiopian military appears to have learned from its war with Eritrea that relying on large numbers of poorly trained and scarcely armed personnel would expose it to massive casualties. A focus on large manpower, while attractive given the size of the population and the very low living costs in the country,  proved almost entirely ineffective against the Eritrean military in the early stages of the war, and only the rapid development of a more elite force with better training, better arms and proper air support allowed it to push back and recover territory lost in the war’s initial stages. Indeed, the Ethiopian military received support and training for both its People’s Militia and its special forces from North Korean specialists at the Tarek Army Camp and other facilities. The relatively small size of the country’s armed forces today, and its reputation for very high training standards and effectiveness, has largely come as a consequence.

Egyptian Air Force Su-35 Heavyweight Fighter | ©Military Watch Magazine

Ethiopia’s military today remains a highly trained and experienced force, and is the fourth largest contributor to international peacekeeping missions in the world in manpower which has provided operational experience in a number of theatres. Reliance on an elite but relatively small military, a highly elite Air Force, well trained pilots, soldiers and special forces, and close military cooperation with North Korea which has provided valuable knowhow and technologies, have helped establish it as a formidable military power and highly secure state in the face of a number of major threats. Eritrea for its part, observing the causes of its neighbour’s success, has itself since 2000 also invested in both developing military ties to North Korea as well as acquiring Su-27 fighters for its Air Force. Nevertheless, security challenges remain very serious, with instability in neighbouring Sudan following following a Western-backed coup removing one of Addis Ababa’s closest security partners and a bulkwark against possible Egyptian interventionism. Moreover, the rapid modernisation of the Egyptian Air Force since 2013 has ended Ethiopia’s considerable former qualitative advantage, and Egypt’s acquisition of Su-35 aircraft has for the first time provided it with a fighter with the endurance needed to carry out effective strike operations against Ethiopian targets.

Reports of Egyptian plans to build a military base in neighbouring Somaliland have only made the security situation more tense, and could lead Ethiopia to invest in more advanced weaponry – possibly including new fighter aircraft such as the Russian MiG-35 or new air defence platforms like the North Korean Pyongae-5 or its more recent successor. With the country continuing to enjoy high levels of economic growth, far exceeding those of its neighbours including Egypt, Ethiopia’s defence budget is likely to increase considerably over the coming decade. This will provide greater opportunities for its traditional arms suppliers such as North Korea, Russia and Ukraine, and could see it emerge as a much more formidable military power.

ቃልሲ መሰል ዓርሰ-ውሳነ አብ ኢትዮጵያ

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እቲ ኣብ ትግራይ ናብ ኲናት ዘምርሐ ፖለቲካዊ ውጥረት፣ መሰል ዓርሰ-ውሳነ ብጭቡጥ ንምርግጋጽ ካብ ዘኽእል አረዳድአን ሞገተን ሕገ መንግስቲ እታ ሃገር ዝብገስ እዩ፣ ክብል ክኢላን ተንታኒን ፖለቲካ ቀርኒ አፍሪካ ኣሌክስ ዴ ቫል ገሊጹ።

አብቲ ጽሑፍ ብአሌክስ ዝቀረቡ ሓሳባት፣ ንትግርኛ ተዓደምቲ፣ ከምዝስዕብ ጸሙቅና ጠሚርናዮም አለና።

ኢትዮጵያውያን ንዓርሰ-ውሳነኦም ብኹሉ ገጽ ይቃለሱ ኣለዉ።

ኣብዘን ዝሓለፋ ውሑዳት ኣዋርሕ ውሽጢ፣ ኣብ ትግራይ ቃልሲ መሰል ዓርሰ-ውሳነ ናብ ዂናት ከምዘምረሐ፤ ኣብ ኦሮሞያ፣ ቤኒሻንጉል-ጉሙዝን ካልኦት ክልላትን ድማ ቃልሲ መሰል ዓርሰ-ምሕደራ ብዝተፈላለዬ መልክዕ እናተጋህደ ከምዝመጸ ይሕብር።

እዚ ጎንጺ እዚ ብኸመይ ክፍታሕ ከምዝኽእል ንምርዳእ ኣጸጋሚ እኳ እንተኾነ፣ መበገሲኡ እንታይ ከምዝኾነ ግና ክንዓሞ ንኽእል ኢና።

አብ ኢትዮጵያ ዝርአዩ ጎንጽታት ብሓፈሻ፣ ልክዕ ኣብ ካልኦት ሀገራት ከምዘጋጥሙ ቅልውላዋት፣ ኣብ ዙሪያ ‘ናይ መንነት ፖለቲካ’፣ ‘ሕገ መንግስታዊ ስርዓት’ን ‘ሞዴላት ምሕደራ’ን ዘጠንጥን እዩ። ይኹን እምበር እቲ ናይ ኢትዮጵያ ጕዳይ ፍልይ ዘበሎ፣ ቃልሲ መሰል ዓርሰ-ውሳነን ዓርሰ-ምሕደራን እውን ዘካተተ ምዃኑ እዩ። እዚ መሰል እዚ ድማ መሰረታዊን ዘየላጢን መሰል እዩ። ብተወሳኺ ድማ አብ መንጎ ፖለቲከኛታት ዘሎ አፈላላይ ብፍጹም ተጻባኢነት ዝግለጽ ጥራሕ ዘይኮነስ፣ ተሳኒኻ ይኹን ተጻዊርካ ብሓባር ፍታሕ ናይ ምምጻእ ዓቅምን ባህልን ስለዘየለ እዩ።

ካብ 1960ታት ኣትሒዙ ኣብ ኢትዮጵያ ዘሎ ፖለቲካዊ ምስሕሓብ መብዛሕትኡ ግዜ ብተመሳሳሊ ኣገባብ፣ ብሓይሊ ብረት እዩ ክፍታሕ ጸኒሑ። ሕድሕድ ወገን ነቲ ናቱ ኣረኣእያ ጥራሕ ቅኑዕ ኢሉ ይወስድ፣ ነቶም ዝብድሆም ድማ ዘይሕጋውያን እዮም ኢሉ ይፍርጅ። አብ ርእሲኡ ቀንዲ ዕዮ መንግስቲ ህውከትን ሀወኽቲን ምውጋድ ምዃኑ እዮ ዝአምን። ተጸዋራይነት ዝብሀል ነገር የለን።

ንአብነት ሎሚ አብይ ካብ ዘቅረቦ መደመር ዝብል ሓሳብ ወጻእ ዘሎ አታሓሳስባ ንጥቅዓት ዘቃልዕ እዩ። መደመር ብዓይኒ ጭፍራታት አብይ፣ ዝተፈለየ ሓሳብ ንዘለዎም ሰባት መጸጸይን መቅጽዒን ኮይኑ ዘገልግል መሳርሒ እዩ።

In the hands of some of Abiy’s disciples Medemer has become a tool of excommunicating dissenters from the political community.

አብ ኸምዚ ዓይነት ኩነታት ፖለቲካ ዓርሰ-ምሕደራ አዝዩ ተባራዒ እዩ ክኸውን። አብ ትግራይ ዂናት ንኽውላዕ ከም ክርቢትን ነዳዲን ኮይኑ አገልጊሉ እዩ። አብ ካልኦት ከባቢታት እውን ብተመሳሳሊ ጎንጽታት የራብሕ አሎ።

መሰል ዓርሰውሳነ ብሕጊ ጥራሕ ክውሰን ዝኽእል ከም ዘይኮነ ምርዳእ አድላይ እዩ። ቅቡልነት ዓርሰ ምሕደራ ብፖለቲካዊ መስርሓት እዩ ዝርከብ። ፖለቲካዊ መስርሓት ክንብል ከለና ብምይይጥን ብክርክርን ማለትና እዩ። ኣብ ዝተሓላለኸ ሕብረተሰብ፣ ከምዚ ንዝኣመሰለ ሱር-በተኽ (radical) አፈላላይን ዘይምስምዕማዕን ክፍታሕ ዝኽእል ብምዝርራብ ጥራሕ እዩ። እቲ ካልአይ መማረጺ ድማ ኢትዮጵያውያን ሎሚ አጸቢቆም ከምዝፈልጥዎ ጦርነት እዩ።

ሓደ ናይቲ ዂናት ሳዕቤን ተጋሩ ብዛዕባ ኢትዮጵያዊ መንነት ዘለዎም ናይ ሓባር ርድኢት ምጉሕጓሕ እዩ።

ኩሎም ካብ ኢትዮጵያ ዝመጹ ጸብጻባት ከምዘመላኽትዎ፣ መንግስቲ ንተጋሩ ዘርእዬ ዘሎ ንጽገት፣ ተመጣጣኒን ዓጸፋዊን ምላሽ ብተጋሩ ይወሀቦ ከምዘሎ እዩ፤ ሎሚ ትግራዋይ ኣብ ኢትዮጵያ ዝድለ ሰብ ኾይኑ ኣይስምዖን። እቲ ‘ኢትዮጵያዊ’ ዝብል ኣተሓሳስባ፡ ብመንነትን ኣጀንዳታትን አምሓራ ጥራሕ ዝልለይ፣ ኣብ ከቢድ ሓደጋ ዝወድቅ ዘሎ አተሓሳስባ ይኸውን አሎ። ተጋሩ ንዓርሶም ካብ ኢትዮጵያዊነት እንተደአ ነጺሎም፡ ካልኦት እውን ክስዕቡ ይኽእሉ እዮም።

All reports from Ethiopia show that the government’s rejection of Tigrayans is being reciprocated: Tigrayans no longer feel they are wanted in Ethiopia. The notion ‘Ethiopian’ is in grave danger of reverting to being identified solely with an Amhara identity and agenda. If the Tigrayans remove themselves from the Ethiopian conversation, others may follow.

ኢትዮጵያውያን ብሓባር ሀገሮም ጠርኒፎም ኽሕዝዋ እንተደአ ዝደልዩ ኾይኖም፣ ዓብዪ ናይ ምክብባር ክእለት፡ ትብዓትን ኣመራርሓ ጥበብን ከድልዮም እዩ። ክሳብ ሽዑ ግና እቲ ሎሚ ዝግበር ዘሎ ውግእ፣ መሰል ዓርሰ ምሕደራ ብኹለመዳያዊ ቃልሲ ክረጋገጽ አለዎ ዝብል ርትዓዊ ኣተሓሳስባ የንጸባርቅ እዩ ዘሎ። እቲ ምይይጥ ምስተቛረጸ ዝጀመረ ምስሕሓብ፡ ፍጻመ ሀለዋት እታ ሀገር ናብ ዘብቅዐሉ ሓያል ቅልውላው የምርሕ አሎ።

 

ሰ.ነ

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 53 – 12 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 11 January)

● The former President of Tigray region, Abay Weldu, is arrested by Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF). According to ENDF the arrest was made in a remote valley. Abay Weldu was the President of the Tigray Region from 2010 to 2018.

● It was noted that in the TV images Abay Weldu looked very unwell.

● Tigray acting Deputy President Dr. Abraham Tekeste is also arrested, Abraham Tekeste was the Minister of Finance and Economic Cooperation (MoFEC) of Ethiopia in 2016; he was MoFEC’s State Minister for four years, and served as Deputy Commissioner to the National Planning Commission of Ethiopia (2015-2016) and Minister of Urban Development Policy Research and Plan Bureau Head of Ethiopia (2005-2010).

● Names of other arrests include Dr. Redae Berhe, former chief auditor of the Tigray region; Dr. Muleta Yirga, Director of the Tigray Statistics Agency; Mr. Iqubay Berhe, Head of Religious Affairs in Tigray; Mr. Getachew Tefari, Head of Security of the Tigray President Office; Mrs Kiros Hagos, Head of the Bureau of Social Affairs of the regional government of Tigray.

● Those that were arrested had left Mekelle and were in different locations in the rural areas in Central Tigray.

● Many other TPLF affiliated individuals were arrested when ENDF took control of Mekelle on Nov 28. It should be noted that TPLF has more than half a million members in Tigray.

● It is reported that TPLF members have been arrested and taken to Eritrea. This happened especially in Shire town.

● Expert notes that any of the officials in the list of civil arrests could have been arrested at any time without engaging in the war.

● It is reported that the son of Sebhat Nega, Tekeste Sebhat, was killed by a drone attack when he was driving in his car. This happened five or six weeks ago. It was earlier reported that TPLF spokesman, Sekoture Getachew, and the former director of the Ethiopian Broadcasting Authority and journalist, Abebe Asgedom, were also killed by a drone attack one month ago. They were attacked by a drone while traveling together in a car. (Situation Report 51)

● It is reported that Major General Ibrahim Abduljelil, the head of logistics of TPLF and Brigadier General Gebrekidan Gebremariam have been killed by the ENDF.

● Eritrean soldiers have forced 6.000 refugees from Shimelba camp to return to Eritrea. Of those politically active, 120 have disappeared. Eritrean soldiers also killed 64 people in the camp.

● Report transmitted by people walking on foot to Mekelle, that in December dozen citizens were massacred by Eritrean forces in the church of Medhanie Alemin Gu’etelo near Asefe, not far from Adigrat. It happened on the anniversary of the Church Saint.

● Fires have been detected in Asgede, in North West Tigray. Fighting has been reported in the area.

● The convoy heading for Shire has reportedly been ambushed by Tigray regional forces. Casualties are unclear. A high ranking officer might have been part of the convoy. ● An ENDF colonel has been killed by Tigrayan forces during fighting in BoraSolewa near Maychew. Reportedly his forces had been involved in the killings of civilians (reported in Situation Report 52).

● Reports of door to door killings of civilians en masse in BoraSolewa, Tigray, for days. Borasolewa is an area of resistance by the TPLF against the federal government military operation.

● More detail has been released on the massacre at the Maryam Zion Church in Aksum. On Tuesday, 15th of December, Ethiopian federal troops and Amhara militia approached the Maryam Zion Cathedral in Aksum. The church was full, and 1,000 people may have been in the building or the compound surrounding it. A confrontation happened after which people were forced to come out on the square. The troops opened fire and 750 people are reported to have been killed.

● Many residents of Aksum are still staying in rural areas and have not returned yet.

● Gunfire in Mekelle reported in Situation Report 52 was related to the arrest of Sebhat Nega as dozens of federal soldiers were shooting in the air to celebrate over a longer time.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 11 January)

● The GERD dam negotiations have collapsed again. Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia have had difficulties in agreeing on a framework for the negotiations. Sudan wants a greater role for AU experts. However both Egypt and Ethiopia have reservations about this. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sudan has said that it will look for alternative methods to resolve the issue, if the talks fail.

● Kenyan forces were hit by an attack by an Improvised Explosive Device (roadside bomb) in Somalia. It killed 4 Kenyan soldiers and wounded 8 more. Reportedly it is the third attack in 48 hours.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 11 January)

● According to Amhara Mass Media agency (AMMA), 300 Ethiopians living in Sudan are returning every day due to tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan. Ethiopians living all over Sudan, are returning with their families and belongings. Returnees interviewed say that they faced harassment and attacks on their properties. It is estimated that 3.500 Ethiopians living in Sudan have returned from Sudan so far.

● The SudanTribune reported that the Ethiopian forces launched an attack into Sudan, killing five women and a child. They clashed with Sudanese forces. An Ethiopian fighter jet carried out attacks in the area.

● An OCHA report on the Benishangul Gumuz region says that the security situation in the region is deteriorating. An increase in violence has been seen since July 2020.

● Humanitarian organisations have moved their staff out of the Benishangul Gumuz region.

● OCHA estimates that the conflict in Benishangul Gumuz has created over a hundred thousand IDPs.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 11 January)

● British House of Lords member, Lord Alton, has called on the British government to investigate the reports of massacres and attacks on refugee camps in Tigray.

● Experts say that the Eritrean presence in Tigray is making the situation worse. Strong antagonism between Tigray and Eritrea, coupled with large scale looting and many reports of massacres, is strengthening Tigrayan resolve to fight to the end. By turning to guerrilla warfare, the TPLF and militias are threatening a war that could take many more months or years.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

The Middle East Cold War Behind the Ethiopian Crisis

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On the ground, the fight between the Federal Army and TPLF troops has been determined by drones. The drones take off from the base of Assab that is operated by the UAE, formerly used as a base for its military operations in Yemen.

Source: Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) | Federico Donelli

The operation conducted by the Ethiopian Federal Army in the northern Tigray region threatens to trigger a further wave of instability in one of the most vulnerable areas of the world. Ethiopia is the keystone of a very fragile arc of instability that has Afghanistan on one side, and Libya on the other. Accordingly, it would be narrow-minded to consider the impact of the current crisis on the Horn of Africa alone. By examining it from a regional angle, it is possible to identify a variety of issues that render the context highly volatile. These concerns range from the outstanding dispute over water in the Nile Basin to the two proxy conflicts in Yemen and Libya, passing through the complex Sudanese political transition to the weak sovereignty of the Somali government. The scenario sketched thus provides both the suitable milieu for the spread of transnational challenges – Islamic radicalism, internally displaced persons, human smuggling, piracy, warlords – and the ideal arena for competition among external actors.

Since 2011, the most fragile countries of the above-mentioned arc of instability have become the battleground of the new cold war among the leading players of the Middle East. As in post-World War Two, the United States and the Soviet Union brought competition and clashes into the so-called ‘Third World’, nowadays, the small-to-medium Middle Eastern powers have broadened the arena beyond traditional regional borders. Among the determinants of this dynamic are both the opportunity offered by the permissive multipolar order at the global level and the need to preserve domestic order. Specifically, to avoid spillover effects that would threaten the survival of their regimes, the Middle Eastern players have exploited the fragility or even the collapse of some states (Yemen, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Iraq) to export competition into third country contexts. The struggle has in some cases turned into violent conflicts, either through direct intervention (Syria, Yemen) or through the backing of local groups (Libya). In other cases, it has become a war of friction aimed not only to gain influence but, above all, to reduce rivals’ gains. The relational concept of power drives the current Middle Eastern chessboard. The Horn of Africa, due to its strategic centrality (Red Sea, Yemen, Suez) and its historical-cultural proximity, has witnessed a process of gradual ‘Middle-Easternisation’ in recent years. In other words, local dynamics have been partly absorbed and partly superseded by regional logic and interactions.

Ethiopia has partially escaped from these logics thanks to its political and economic weight. Further, Addis Ababa has tried to profit as much as possible from the Middle Eastern scramble. Evidence of this can be found in the fact that all the Middle Eastern players have tried to nurture diplomatic and trade relations with Addis Ababa. Recent developments, however, seem to have thrown Ethiopia into the melee. In 2018, the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Aly to government has been marked by the normalisation of relations with Eritrea. The ‘peace-cum-security pact’ was signed in 2018 in Jeddah. Far from being symbolic, the choice was indicative of the role played by two Gulf monarchies – Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – in the rapprochement between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Few international observers at the time of the signing imagined that one of the Ethiopian prime minister’s mid-term goals was to hit the Tigray (Tigray People’s Liberation Front, TPLF) elite. A target that has become evident in recent weeks when the advance of the Ethiopian army toward Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, has been supported politically and, according to the TPLF forces also militarily, by the Asmara government. On the ground, the fight between the Federal Army and TPLF troops has been determined by drones. The drones take off from the base of Assab that is operated by the UAE, formerly used as a base for its military operations in Yemen.

Despite the TPLF’s allegations, it is not possible to assert a direct involvement of either the KSA or the UAE in the Ethiopian crisis. However, it is also appropriate to consider their role from behind the scenes. In so doing, it should be noted that although the regional policy of the KSA and the UAE is usually portrayed as a shared one, in practice there are several points of disagreement. Different positions have emerged in two regional scenarios where the KSA and the UAE are involved and operative: the war in Yemen, and the transition in Sudan. Even the stance that the two Gulf monarchies have adopted in the wake of the recent U.S. presidential elections would seem to distance them from each other. There has been growing concern in Riyadh that the Biden administration may assume a less tolerant attitude towards Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s methods. The comeback on the political scene of the Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and the attempts to ease tensions with Turkey and Qatar would seem to be two significant clues. In Abu Dhabi, on the contrary, there would seem to be a rush to exploit the free rein guaranteed by Trump’s presidency. Hence the Emirates have been accelerating their plans for normalization with Israel, but also for the building of new alignments, as demonstrated by the joint drills with Egypt and Russia. As shown by the Russian talks to establish a naval base in Sudan, Egypt and Russia would seem to become the main partners of the Emirates in the Horn of Africa. A trio that stands to fill the vacuum left by the United States.

From the angle of the Middle East cold war, the UAE and Egypt are the two actors who could gain the most from Ethiopian instability. In the worst-case scenario for Addis Ababa, the resistance of the TPLF could turn into armed guerrilla warfare; in the best case, it would lead to a complicated process of post-war reconstruction and trust-building in the Tigray region. In both cases, Ethiopia should devote its resources to the domestic field. A context of instability that would benefit Egypt and the UAE more than any other players in the area. In fact, a weak Ethiopia would give a further boost to Egyptian ambitions in the region; the balance of power in the Nile waters issue would change. Likewise, the African Union – whose headquarters are in Addis Ababa – could reconsider its intransigent position towards Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. For the UAE, a weakened Ethiopia as a commercial-military dependent would fit in with its overall designs on the region. Furthermore, the Ethiopian crisis may affect Somalia, an already fragile state whose security is also ensured by AMISOM troops (mostly Ethiopians). A new wave of turmoil in Somalia would undermine the system-building projects of the two main UAE-Egypt rivals – Qatar and Turkey -, and generate new challenges and vulnerabilities in the whole Horn of Africa.

11/01/2021 News And Commentaries

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The Middle East Cold War Behind the Ethiopian Crisis. Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) 

On the ground, the fight between the Federal Army and TPLF troops has been determined by drones. The drones take off from the base of Assab that is operated by the UAE, formerly used as a base for its military operations in Yemen.

 

Ethiopian general admits the usage of ARMED drones in Tigray war, but Ethiopia doesn’t have one.

 

The Belgian based EEPA confirmed members of TPLF were killed by drone attack. EEPA Situation Report 51, 10 Jan, 2021

TPLF spokesman, Sekoture Getachew, and the former director of the Ethiopian Broadcasting Authority and journalist, Abebe Asgedom, were killed by a drone attack one month ago. They were attacked by a drone while traveling together in a car.

 

Talking and fighting about self-determination in Ethiopia. Alex de Waal | LSE

The political dispute that led to war in Tigray, Ethiopia, was sparked by contending interpretations of the right to self-determination in the country’s constitution.

… Ethiopians are fighting over self-determination. In the last few months, constitutional disputes over respective powers of the federal government and regional states have become full-scale civil war in Tigray and escalating conflicts in Oromiya, Beni Shangul-Gumuz and other regions over the right of self-determination.

… All reports from Ethiopia show that the government’s rejection of Tigrayans is being reciprocated: Tigrayans no longer feel they are wanted in Ethiopia. The notion ‘Ethiopian’ is in grave danger of reverting to being identified solely with an Amhara identity and agenda. If the Tigrayans remove themselves from the Ethiopian conversation, others may follow.

 

Food Security Analysis Ethiopia Monthly Market Watch, December 2020. WFP Monthly Market Watch

  • General inflation remained high in November 2020 at 19 percent.
  • The Birr devaluated by 27.1 percent against the US dollar and depreciated at 18.4 percent in the parallel market since November 2019.
  • The prices of food commodities escalated compared to pre-crisis levels in Tigray Region, despite cash shortages due to disrupted bank services and supply chain interruptions.
  • The security situation in Tigray region has contributed to food shortages, which disrupt both upstream input markets and downstream output markets, thus deterring food production, commercialization and stock management.

 

Negotiations over Ethiopia dam project break down. CNN

Negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, in a long-running dispute over the GERD on the Blue Nile, have reached a new impasse….

“We cannot continue this vicious cycle of circular talks indefinitely,” Sudanese irrigation minister Yasir Abbas said in a statement.

 

Ethiopia begins constructing new dam in northern Amhara region. Egypt Independent

Ethiopia broke ground on Saturday and began building a new dam worth US$125 million in North Shewa, Amhara Region. Construction is expected to be completed within three years. The dam will be … capable of storing 55 million cubic meters of water. … Upon completion, 7,000 hectares of land will be able to be developed, benefitting more than 28,000 families in the region.

 

Khartoum will resort to alternative methods to address Ethiopia Nile Dam, Sudan Foreign Minister

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 52 – 11 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 10 January)

  • Fierce fighting reported for the last two or three days on the Tekeze belt of Abi Adi of Tigray Central Zone, between Tigray forces and Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) and Eritrean forces.
  • Intense fighting in the North Western zone of Tigray, Endebaguna area, specifically DebreAbay and Meili area between Tigray forces and ENDF together with Eritrean troops.
  • The UN says it has no access to Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps in Tigray. Access to most parts of North, Western, Eastern and Central Tigray remains constrained as fighting continues in many areas.
  • The Federal Ethiopian government has confirmed that Sebhat Nega, 86, the co-founder of the TPLF, was arrested and transported to Addis Ababa together with other TPLF affiliated officials. Sebhat Nega, also referred to as ‘Aboy Sebhat’ (‘father Sebhat’) is a retired political intellectual, former director of the Tigray Endowment Fund and director of a think tank, the Foreign Relations Strategic Study Institute in Addis Ababa until 2018.
  • During the arrest of Sebhat Nega, a video broadcasted by the Ethiopian News Agency shows two soldiers in Eritrean uniforms, one sitting and one filming the arrest. The participation of Eritrean troops in the Tigray war has been confirmed by General Belay Seyoun of the North Command of ENDF.
  • Reported that ENDF reinforcements of several buses loaded with soldiers and heavy trucks were seen in the Afar region and Tekeze areas. Their destinations are not yet known.
  • A leaked recording of a zoom meeting shows a high ranking Ethiopian General explaining the plan to take measures on Tigrayan refugees in Sudan. “They are sheltered as refugees; we will keep on bringing them back and we will work on it”, says the General. “We will also get inside Sudan and take measures after our mission in the North (Tigray) is completed”.
  • In the zoom recording the Ethiopian General also talked about the use of armed drones in the war in Tigray. “While the war was happening in front we were attacking/bombing them behind the frontlines with drones and we don’t know who is dead and alive”, said the General.
  • Reported in social media that deputy commander of ENDF 33th division was killed while fighting Tigray regional forces on the Western front.
  • Reported in social media that more than 160 civilians have been murdered by ENDF soldiers in Bora near Maychaw town in the Southern Tigray.
  • According to a source in social media, 13 members of a family have been killed by Eritrean soldiers in a village named May Cado, near Hawzen, Eastern Tigray.
  • The de facto division by the Amhara regional state of Western Tigray into two new administrative zones, entirely under Amhara administration, is carried out without legal procedure or without any official decision. The two zones are called Telemt and Humera-Welqayt-Tegede Zone. Tigrayans living in these areas are transported to Central Tigray and Amhara farmers are settled into the deserted places.
  • With regards to control in Telemt or Tselemti in West Tigray, it is reported that Amhara regional forces control May Tsebri, and Tigray regional forces control most of the area to the East.
  • On 9 and 10 January shooting was reported in Mekelle during evening and night.
  • The UN fears “massive community transmission of COVID-19 in Tigray, increased by massive displacement and the collapse of health services.
  • A new UN report said, “only five out of 40 hospitals in Tigray are physically accessible, with another four reachable by mobile networks”. It added; “ Apart from those in (the Tigray capital) Mekele, the remaining hospitals are looted and many reportedly destroyed.” AP reported that “many of the hospitals in Ethiopia’s conflict-hit Tigray region, outside its capital, have been struck by artillery during the two months of fighting”.
  • The UNHCR says it has continued to register new refugee arrivals at the Sudanese-Ethiopian border.
  • A global demonstration has taken place in different parts of the world, organized by Tigrayan and Eritrean members of the diaspora, demanding the war on Tigray must stop and Eritrean troops must leave Tigray immediately.
  • A protest of ‘body bags’ on St Kilda beach in Australia forms a protest against ‘genocide’ in the Tigray region. Australian Ethiopians call for action on the crisis in the Tigray region.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 10 January)

  • After the withdrawal of UN and African Union peacekeepers from Darfur, Sudan security forces including the Rapid Support Forces (RFS) are tasked to keep the peace and protect Darfur’s citizens. Residents of the Kalma Camp protest against the end of the peacekeeping mission by the UN and AU.
  • Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia failed to agree on the way forward for talks on the GERD dam, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said. The matter is being referred back to the chairman of the African Union.
  • Ethiopia blames Sudan for the breakdown of talks to resolve the GERD dam dispute. While Ethiopia and Egypt agreed to another round of talks, Sudan declined because it seeks a role for AU experts in the talks and it is angered by Ethiopia’s intent to fill the dam with or without an agreement.

Links of interest

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-10/talks-over-ethiopia-s-nile-dam-hit-another-deadlock-egypt-says
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/8/un-fears-massive-covid-transmission-in-ethiopias-tigray
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-09/australian-ethiopians-rally-in-support-of-people-of-igray/13041980
https://www.africanews.com/2021/01/10/un-camp-in-sudan-registers-new-tigrayan-refugees/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-09/st-kilda-protest-against-tigray-ethopia-alleged-genocide/13044776
https://apnews.com/article/abiy-ahmed-africa-ethiopia-united-nations-kenya-a2894a53c2b85cda6a86cdd2d6c64f11

Talking and fighting about self-determination in Ethiopia

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Source: LSE | Alex de Waal

The political dispute that led to war in Tigray, Ethiopia, was sparked by contending interpretations of the right to self-determination in the country’s constitution. Drawing on a themed collection in the January 2021 issue of Nations and Nationalism, Alex de Waal explores the diverse theories and practices of self-determination in the Horn of Africa, shedding light on the current conflict and why it will be so difficult to resolve.

Read more

ውዕሎ ሱዳን፣ ግብጺን ኢትዮጵያን ውጽኢት አልቦ ኮይኑ ተዛዚሙ

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ውዕሎ ሱዳን፣ ግብጺን ኢትዮጵያን ውጽኢት አልቦ ኮይኑ ተዛዚሙ አሎ።

ካብዝተፈላለያ ሚድያታት ብኢንግሊዝኛ ዝተጠመረት ነዛ ዜና አንብቢኩም ስርሒት ሱዳን ታይ ከምዝኾነ አስተውዕሉላ።

ኢትዮጵያ ብሶኒ አብ ዘዳለወቶን ብውድብ ሕቡራት አፍሪካ (AU) ዝተዋደደን ዋዕላ ሚንስቴራትን በዓል ሞያታትን አይሳተፍን ኢላ ዓንቂፋ ጸኒሓስ፣ ትማሊ ብውልቀ ምስ ኤዩ ተራኺባ ዘትያ። “ብሉጽ ግደ ክትጻወቲ አለኪ፣ ሙሉእ መፍትሒ ካባኺ ኢና ንጽበ” ዝብል ሓሳብ እያ ሒዛ ቀሪባ ነይራ።

አብ ናይ ሎማዓንቲ ልዝብ በዚ ሓሳብ ኢትዮጵያ ትኹን ዋላ ግብጺ ክስማዕምዓ ከምዘይኽእላ ሱዳን አጸቢቃ ትፈልጥ እያ። ምኽንያቱ ወሰንቲን ወነንቲን እቲ ሀፍቲ ማይ ንሕና እምበር ካሊእ ስለዘይኾነ ካልኦት ዘምጽእዎ መፍትሒ አይንቅበልን ከምዝብላ ፍሉጥ እዩ። ዳርጋ ሉአላዊነትካ ገፊፍካ ምሀብ እዩ። ብፍላይ ንኢትዮጵያ ድማ ትማሊ ምስ አሜሪካን ዓለም ባንክን ዝተፈጸመ ስሕተት ምድጋም ክኸውን እዩ።

ክልትኤን ሀገራት እዚ ዘይሕሰብ እዩ ምስበላ ድማ፣ ሱዳን ትርጉም አብ ዘይብሉ ዋዕላታት ሸኾርተት እንዳበልኩ ናይ ምንባር ዓቅሊ የብለይን ዝብል ጥንክር ዝበለ ቅዋም አንጸባሪቃ አላ። ውጻእ አይትበሎ ከምዝወጽእ ግበሮ ድዩ ዝብሀል?

ጸወታ ሱዳን ብሓጺሩ ክንግምገም ከለና “እቲ ተፈጢሩ ዘሎ አጋጣሚ ምጥቃም ይሕሸኒ፣ ክጽቀጥ እየ” ማለታ ይመስል።

Talks Over Ethiopia’s GERD Reached A Deadlock

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Talks Over Ethiopia’s Nile Dam Hit Another Deadlock, Egypt Says Bloomberg

Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia failed to agree on the way forward for talks on Ethiopia’s giant dam on a Nile River tributary, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The matter is being referred back to the chairman of the African Union, which is mediating the discussions, the ministry and Sudan’s state news agency SUNA both said.

 

Renaissance Dam talks resume after Sudanese blockage Arab News

The Sudanese delegation said it demanded a comprehensive agreement that addresses all issues related to the dam. It also said that the AU should play a more effective leadership role in the negotiation.

Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Aty met with the US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin last week to review negotiations on the GERD and Egypt’s desire to complete the negotiations.

 

GERD negotiations reach a dead-end. Ahram-Online

“Sudan insisted on the necessity of delegating the African Union appointed experts to present solutions to the disputed issues in the talks and to elaborate on the GERD agreement; something which both Egypt and Ethiopia rejected because the negotiation process, as well as the right to draft the texts and provisions of the filling and operating agreement of the GERD, are fundamental rights for the three countries,” said the Egyptian statement.

“We cannot continue this vicious cycle of round talks indefinitely, considering that the GERD represents a direct threat to the Roseires Dam, which has a reservoir capacity less than 10% of the GERD’s capacity if the filing and the operations of the GERD starts without an agreement and daily exchange of information,” said Sudanese Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Yasser Abbas.

 

Sudan refuses to split GERD negotiations into two agreements. LomaZoma

Sudan refused Sunday to split agreements on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), for the first filling and permanent operation as two separate agreements.

“Sudan does not tolerate nor can it bear to proceed with endless negotiations, without results or solutions,” Abbas said.

 

Nile dam row: Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan fail to reach consensus on negotiation mechanism MENAFN

Sudan insisted on the need for mandated experts designated by the African Union (AU) to propose solutions to the contentious issues under negotiation, and to draft an agreement.

Both Egypt and Ethiopia rejected the Sudanese proposal, as they stressed the right of the three parties to formulate the agreement. This is especially as the AU experts have no experience in the technical issues related to the project.

The meeting concluded that the South Africa’s representative would submit a report to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, on the outcomes of the talks to consider the coming step.