Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 62 – 21 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 20 January)

● Journalist Dawit Kebede, who was working at Tigray TV and reported the fighterjet downed in Tembien by Tigray forces, has been killed. He was arrested earlier in Mekelle, subsequently released, but after three days killed together with the lawyer Adi Hawsi, in front of the UNICEF building on 19/1.

● An American witness, who was in Aksum during the war, reports that in Aksum water and electricity went out on November 2, prior to the start of hostilities on November 3 and 4. As a result people in Aksum did not see any news. A few days later people arrived from Humera. They told that they came because of the war, that their houses were destroyed, and people had been killed.

● The witness states that a few days later shooting started when Eritrean soldiers entered Aksum with tanks. They came in thousands and killed whoever stood in their way. There were dead bodies all over the city: “I had to step over dead bodies to get there. The entire city from the bus station to the park was covered in bodies.” Many civilians were killed when St. Michael church was shelled.

● The witness states that the Eritrean soldiers said they had been told to kill, to kill all Tigrayan males over the age of four. The soldiers said they were told to kill all males so that they would not come to take revenge in the future.

● According to the witness soldiers fired indiscriminately at anyone. They killed people without warning. People were not given any warning. The soldiers just fired on everything.

● The witness states that Eritrean troops killed Eritrean soldiers, priests, farmers, and burned crops. The Eritrean troops forced farmers and priests to slaughter their own animals and they killed the farmers if they refused to do so.

● The Eritrean soldiers stole medicine from health facilities and destroyed the infrastructure. They broke glass windows and stole everything.

● The witness states that she heard of old women and young girls being raped.

● According to the witness, people of Aksum sought refuge in the Mariam Zion Church.

● The witness states Eritrean soldiers were completely in charge of the situation in Aksum and that ENDF soldiers watched and did nothing to stop the violence and the killing. The ENDF soldiers were fired at if they tried to stop Eritrean soldiers who were looting.

● Refugees from Shemelba and Hitsats refugee camps report that there is nothing left of the two refugee camps after they have been looted and destroyed. Refugees have relocated to the two camps Adi Harush and May Ayni, or have traveled to Addis Ababa or other places where they feel more safe.

● The refugees report that the camps were first attacked by Eritrean soldiers who tried to take those who were wanted by the Eritrean government for political reasons and were sent back to Eritrea. Afterwards Tigrayan regional forces chased the Eritrean soldiers out.

●The refugees report that several refugees were killed and that refugees had been terrified. They had not had any food rations for 2-3 months. “We ate what we could find, even plants and leaves”.

● The refugees did not have difficulty passing through checkpoints on their way to Addis Ababa. But they had to pay much more than normal bus fare prices for the trip: 200 Birr from Shemelba to Shire, 1000 Birr from Shire to Mekelle, and 1500 Birr from Mekelle to Addis – per person.

● The Somali Federal Republic Federal Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation asks President Farmaajo to clarify the whereabouts of thousands of Somali soldiers trained in Eritrea. Ref 02/79/21, dated 18/01/2021.

● The Somali Parliament urges President Farmaajo to send a team to Asmara to confirm if the Somali soldiers are alive or dead. The report indicates that more than 2,800 of Somali soldiers were killed in the Tigray war.

● In a village in the Alitena region controlled by Eritreans, six men are killed. None of the six were armed or politically active. Alitena is a territory that the Eritrea Ethiopia Commission decided belongs to Ethiopia, therefore to Tigray regional state. Serious food shortages are reported in this region.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 20 January)

● Action Against Hunger’s (AAH) Ethiopia director Panos Navrozidis states: “Central Tigray is a black hole” as aid groups only have access to certain towns and many of the people are remaining within rural villages because of fear of fighting. They can not access food or health services.

● Tigray Water Resource Management Bureau stated that access to clean water in Tigray is jeopardized for many due to “damaged infrastructure, looted offices, stolen equipment and an inoperative dam.”

● Sihul Michael, Head of Tigray’s Prosperity Party sends out a letter from the Prosperity Party (PP) to new PP-members and former members of the TPLF on recruiting all ex-TPLF members to be PP members and to do all necessary surveillance regarding any kind of communication with TPLF. In case there are any cadres that look suspicious to the party, ‘all necessary measures’ must be taken against them as stated in a letter dated Nov 14, 2013. TPLF members are forced to become a member of the PP.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 20 January)

● Mr. Dina Mufti, of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, denies allegations that Eritrean and Somali soldiers are among forces fighting in Tigray as baseless, speaking to the media today (20/11).

● Ethiopia disaster commission spokesman, Debebe Zewdie states that there is no starvation in Ethiopia.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 20 January)

● The nominee US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expresses concerns about the atrocities in Tigray and the fate of Eritrean refugees in Tigray senate confirmation hearing, on a question of Sen Coons.

● Nominee Blinken states the US needs to take an active approach, that access to the Tigray region is needed, provision of humanitarian assistance, accountability, restoration of communications, and an effort to put a dialogue in place to deal with the conflict and litigate it, and expressing concerns that the situation may destabilize the Horn of Africa.

● Blinken expresses the desire for active diplomatic engagement of the US in the conflict in Tigray.

● Lord Alton asks the UK government what steps are taken to ensure that eye witness statements are taken from refugees from Tigray about reports of war crimes and crimes against humanity; how any such evidence is preserved; and what plans there are to put judicial justice in place.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Ethiopians dying, hungry and fearful in war-hit Tigray: agencies

Ethnic conflict could unravel Ethiopia’s valuable garment industry

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Source: The Conversation | Dorothee Baumann-Pauly

Ethiopia has long been considered one of Africa’s economic wunderkinds. Until recently, it had relative political stability in comparison to other countries on the continent. And, with an average GDP growth rate of 10% in the past decade and a government that instituted policies friendly to foreign investors, the country was able to attract South and East Asian clothing manufacturers. These sell to international brands, such as Decathlon and H&M.

But, for the past two months, violent conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region fuelled by ethnic power politics has threatened the country’s stability. According to the International Crisis Group, the violence has likely killed thousands of people, including many civilians, displaced more than a million people internally, and led some 50,000 to flee to Sudan.

The scale of the conflict could scare off foreign investment in the country’s garment industry. This sector is hugely important to Ethiopia, which aimed to propel its agricultural economy toward a more prosperous future built on providing clothing to consumers in the West.

While the Ethiopian textile and garment industry is still small – its export share is not more than 10% of total exports, and its products only represent 0.6% of total GDP – the sector was expected to grow by around 40% a year in the next few years.

In March 2019, I assessed Ethiopia’s garment industry alongside two colleagues from the New York University’s Stern Center for Business and Human Rights. We wanted to see whether Ethiopia – as the new frontier of garment manufacturing – had learnt from mistakes in other sourcing countries. We analysed the industry’s prospects and the working conditions with a close look at the flagship Hawassa Industrial Park. This is a vast and still only partly filled facility, which currently employs 25,000 workers about 225km south of the capital of Addis Ababa.

What we found was sobering.

Manufacturers told us about the many challenges of doing business in Ethiopia. These included bureaucratic and logistical hurdles and the problems that come with an unskilled workforce that had no prior experience of working in an industrial setting.

Workers reported that they could barely survive with their base monthly wage as low as US$26. The government’s eagerness to attract foreign investment led it to promote the lowest base wage in any garment-producing country.

In addition to this already-strained business context, the report we published points to what we saw as the greatest challenge of all: ethnic tensions.

In Hawassa, ethnic tension erupted in July 2019 and caused disruptions to the industrial park. The new conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region could be the tipping point for foreign investors in the garment industry. Manufacturers had told us that further political instability in the country could jeopardise all future business.

The collapse of this sector would be disastrous. Tens of thousands of people would lose their jobs and the investments made in this enterprise wasted. In addition, foreign investors and the Ethiopian government need to understand that its collapse could have a symbolic knock-on effect in the region – Ethiopia’s garment sector is often seen as a pioneering experiment proving that structural transformation in Africa is possible.

Unmet promises

Garment manufacturers were already struggling to do business. We found that workers, unhappy with their working conditions and pay, were increasingly willing to protest by stopping work or even quitting. Attrition was high, and production was low.

There are also problems with raw materials, almost all of which need to be imported into Ethiopia from India or China. The government advertised the availability of more than 3 million hectares for cash crops, including cotton cultivation in 2010. In fact, only about 60,000 hectares were being used by 2019 to grow cotton, and that figure is falling as local farmers switch to sugar, sesame, and other more lucrative cash crops.

Ethnic tensions disrupted factory operations further. When Abiy Ahmed took over as Prime Minister in 2018, his reforms – which aimed to create a more ethnically inclusive government – unsettled the ruling coalition and opened a political space for ethnic tensions to resurface. For instance, in Hawassa, a group of the Sidama people – who are the majority ethnic group in the Hawassa state – pushed for independence in 2019.

The political uncertainty due to ethnic tensions translates into economic uncertainty for investors.

In Hawassa, security concerns emerged for local workers and foreign staff. Night shifts had to be cancelled so that workers could get home safely before nightfall. Political demonstrations at the park’s fence and within the park disrupted production. Sidama people also mobilised within factories and demanded more jobs for their people resulting in short strikes and occasional park-wide closings.

Such disruptions are a wild card beyond the control of investors, which may set back further investments.

By a thread

When the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in early 2020, the sector was hanging by a thread. In June 2020, the International Labour Organisation published a report, which described reduced orders and a situation for workers even more perilous than before.

By the end of 2020, many of the over 60,000 garment workers in Ethiopia had lost their jobs or were too afraid to return to work, fearing they would catch the coronavirus.

The current ethnic conflict could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. For instance, the industrial park in Mekelle built for 20,000 workers – and with an occupancy in 2020 of around 3,500 workers – is currently closed. The current internet and phone blackout in the Tigray region now also makes any communication between buyers and the factories impossible.

A worsening human rights situation creates reputational and operational risks for investors and buyers. It increases uncertainty over the ability to complete orders and ship them on time. It also increases security risks for staff and workers. This may all cause long-lasting damage to investor confidence and the opportunity for sustainable economic development.

What must change

To assure investors, buyers, and international stakeholders, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed needs to end the blackout in the Tigray region, better protect journalists and civilians, and allow for independent human rights monitors to assess conditions.

At this critical moment, clothing companies and manufacturers invested in Ethiopia need to double down on their commitments to business in Ethiopia. This means they need to stay in the country and speak up to support human rights.

Once ethnic tensions are defused, more work will still need to be done by both the government and foreign manufacturers to strengthen the sector. This includes developing a domestic supply chain and establishing a minimum wage that ensures decent living conditions for workers.

But first, the future of the industry must be secured.

Ethiopians Flex Military Muscle During Orthodox Epiphany Holiday

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© 2021 AFP

Outside a centuries-old stone church in the northern Ethiopian city of Gondar, a drama troupe performed skits hailing the military defeat of the former leaders of the country’s Tigray region.

As rifle-toting actors danced around chanting actresses, an audience cheered when the troupe denounced the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as a band of “traitors”.

The performance was part of festivities marking the Orthodox Christian holiday of Epiphany, known as Timkat in Ethiopia, which commemorates Jesus’s baptism in the River Jordan.

In a typical year, Timkat in Gondar is a sunny, lighthearted affair, capped by a ceremony at 17th-century stone baths — built during the time of Emperor Fasilides — in which thousands of worshippers and tourists dive into holy water.

The event is a main driver of tourism in Gondar, the former seat of Ethiopia’s royal empire, and in 2019 it earned a spot on UNESCO’s list of Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity.

This year, however, is hardly typical for Ethiopia: The country is grappling with the conflict in Tigray as well as persistent ethnic violence in other regions and, most recently, simmering tensions along the border with Sudan.

The crises have inspired some officials and ordinary Ethiopians to turn the event into a celebration of military might, using public statements and performances to project strength and issue warnings to would-be enemies.

Even the official slogan of this year’s celebration — “Ethiopia’s Rebirth at Gondar’s Timkat” — is a reference to the Tigray conflict, which officials term a “law-enforcement operation”.

“It is talking about Ethiopia’s renaissance, especially because of what the government is achieving with the law-enforcement operation,” Gondar’s mayor, Molla Melkamu, said of the slogan.

“It means that for Ethiopians, this is a new beginning.”

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, announced the military operations in Tigray in early November, saying they were in response to TPLF-orchestrated attacks on federal army camps.

By the end of the month, federal forces had entered the Tigray capital Mekele and Abiy was declaring victory, though TPLF leaders remain on the run and fighting has continued.

In Gondar, located in the Amhara region south of Tigray, the conflict has spotlighted long-running animosity towards the TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy took office in 2018.

After the fighting broke out, Gondar resident Tesfahun Mande grabbed a rifle and rushed to the front, determined to help reclaim land that many Amharas, members of Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group, accuse the TPLF of seizing when they came to power in the early 1990s.

“When we went there, we were very joyful,” Tesfahun told AFP, describing his time in battle.

“Even the dead died smiling.”

Tesfahun held onto his rifle during Timkat this week, strolling through the streets of Gondar yelling chants in praise of Amhara fighters who took on the TPLF.

A nighttime poetry reading organised in Gondar in the lead-up to Timkat struck a triumphant note, with one man drawing applause for the following lines:

“Oh, the time has come/ The people who are being pushed are now standing/ The people who were doing the pushing are now down.”

The Tigray offensive was not the only conflict invoked by worshippers during this year’s Timkat.

At a five-kilometre fun-run earlier this week, several participants carried signs imploring officials to “pay attention to Metekel”, an area of western Ethiopia where hundreds — including many Amharas — have died in recent grisly attacks on civilians.

Abiy’s government has failed to stem the violence or explain who is behind it.

But Amhara politicians see it as an attempt to drive ethnic Amharas out of Metekel and are calling for federal military intervention.

Tegenu Guadie, a 26-year-old student from Metekel, spotlighted that appeal during Gondar’s main Timkat procession Monday, which saw priests escort cloaked tabots — replicas of the Ark of the Covenant — amid a riot of song, dance and prayer.

“The Metekel issue is very worrying. People are chased out of their homes and are being killed,” Tegenu said, arguing that the situation called for “military” force.

As crowds gathered Tuesday morning at Fasiledes’ Bath, priests tried to keep the focus squarely on religion, singing hymns, burning incense and reading Bible verses describing Jesus’s baptism.

Emerging in his underwear from his short swim in the holy water, 24-year-old Gondar resident Getenet Mekuant said that was as it should be, stressing he was there “for religion, not politics”.

Yet politics and conflict were never far from officials’ minds.

“As we celebrate this year’s Timkat, we think about those who gave their lives in the law enforcement operation,” Amhara regional president Agegnehu Teshager said in remarks delivered from the water’s edge.

“We also think,” he added, “about those who were killed or chased from their homes because of their ethnic identity.”

FN avdekket kritikkverdige forhold i Tigray-flyktningleirer

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Utrop | Titusenvis av eritreiske flyktninger har et presserende behov for hjelp i krigsrammede Tigray nord i Etiopia, ifølge FNs høykommissær for flyktninger (UNHCR).

Nylig fikk FN-organet tilgang til området, noe som skjedde to måneder etter at konflikten tvang humanitære arbeidere til å forlate Tigray-regionen.

Ifølge talsperson Babar Baloch for UNHCR er forholdene kritikkverdige i to flyktningleirer i den krigsrammede Tigray-regionen nord i Etiopia

Manglende drivstoff til brønnpumper gjorde at flyktninger måtte bruke vann fra en bekk til vask, matlaging og som drikkevann, noe som resulterte i diarélignende sykdommer.

Over 4,5 millioner mennesker trenger akutt mat, viser et referat fra et krisemøte mellom hjelpearbeidere, regjeringen og lokale myndigheter 1. januar. Det tilsvarer nesten hele Tigrays befolkning.

Den etiopiske hæren startet i november en omfattende militæroffensiv mot opprørere i den nordlige Tigray-regionen. Titusenvis flyktet, og FN har varslet om grove menneskerettighetsbrudd.

(©NTB)

Sudan calls on Ethiopia to withdraw its forces from the disputed Al-Fashaqa region

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Source: Ecofin Agency |

Following an emergency meeting of its Security and Defense Council on Jan 17, Sudan called on the Ethiopian government to withdraw its forces from the Al-Fashaqa region, which the two countries have been disputing on for years.

“Despite the military mobilization and build-up carried out by Ethiopia in the areas facing our forces in Al-Fashaqa, we confirm that our forces will remain in their lands to preserve sovereignty stipulated in the charters and agreements that affirm Sudan’s entitlement,” Sudanese Defense Minister Lieutenant General Yassin Ibrahim Yassin said in a press release.

He called on Ethiopia to “withdraw its forces from the remaining positions it still occupies in Maraghad, Khor Hamar, and Ghatar (in the Al-Fashaqa region, ed) as soon as possible in compliance with international treaties and the sustainability of good-neighborly relations.”

The battle between the two countries over this region, inhabited by Ethiopian farmers (who operate land claimed by Sudan), has sharply increased in recent weeks. On Thursday, Sudanese authorities banned flights over the border area after declaring that an Ethiopian military plane had violated Sudanese airspace in a “dangerous and unjustified escalation.” The allegations were denied on Friday by the Ethiopian army chief of staff, General Berhanu Gula.

Last week, Sudan claimed at least five people died in border attacks by Ethiopian government-backed militias and that it will use all “available means” to respond. Earlier in December, Sudan accused Ethiopian “forces and militias” of ambushing Sudanese troops along the border, killing four people and wounding more than 20. The incident resulted in a large number of Sudanese military backups being sent to the border with Ethiopia to “recover land usurped by Ethiopian militias.”

Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereignty Council of Sudan, said on Saturday his country did not mean to start a war with Ethiopia and has no interest in doing so. Sudan just wants to protect its border rights.

In a press conference on Friday, the Ethiopian army chief of staff also said Addis Ababa has no interest in going to war with Sudan. He added that if the Ethiopian army went to war, “we would not hide.”

The commander of the Ethiopian army added that a small group within the Sudanese government is working for the benefit of a third party and is standing behind the incursions.

The Al-Fashaqa region borders the Tigray region of Ethiopia where the Ethiopian government has been waging a military campaign against the TPLF since November; a conflict that has led to the exodus of more than 45,000 Ethiopian refugees to Sudan, according to the United Nations.

Sivile til Bistandsaktuelt: Etiopia og Eritrea kjemper side om side i Tigray

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©Bistandsaktuelt | Etiopias regjering avviser alle påstander om at Eritrea har vært involvert i krigen i Tigray. Sivile tigrayere som Bistandsaktuelt har snakket med forteller en helt annen historie. Eritreiske soldater har deltatt – og har stått bak plyndring, vandalisme og drap.

EUs utenriksminister Joseph Borrell annonserte sist fredag at EU stopper all budsjettstøtte til Etiopias regjering – bistand til en samlet verdi av drøyt 900 millioner kroner.

Den direkte årsaken var at Etiopia har nektet humanitære aktører tilgang til hjelpetrengende sivile i den krigsherjede Tigray-regionen. I tillegg uttrykker EU sterk bekymring over en rekke rapporter om etnisk baserte drap og krigsforbrytelser begått under militæroperasjonene i Tigray. På basis av sine rapporter fastslår EU samtidig at også eritreiske styrker har deltatt i krigshandlingene og overgrep mot sivile. Begge deler er stikk i strid med hva Etiopias regjering har hevdet.

Ifølge EU skal eritreiske og etiopiske myndigheter også ha samarbeidet om å pågripe og tvangsreturnere eritreiske flyktninger som var i FN-leirer i Tigray til hjemlandet. Dette skal ha startet allerede før krigshandlingene i november.

Soldater plyndret moské

Bistandsaktuelt har vært i kontakt med ulike tigrayiske sivile som alle bekrefter eritreiske soldaters rolle i krigføringen. Vi har blant annet snakket med folk fra Wukro, en by 35 kilometer fra provinshovedstaden Mekele.

Dette er en av byene i Tigray som var utsatt for omfattende ødeleggelser og plyndring under kampene i regionen. De langvarige kampene i utkanten av byen førte blant annet til store skader og plyndring av Al-Nejashi-moskeen, en historisk moské bygd på 600-tallet av profeten Mohammeds første tilhengere.

Noen sier det var eritreiske styrker, sammen med den etiopiske hæren, som ødela og plyndret moskeen. Andre hevder det var TPLF-lojale styrker som gjorde det, som ledd i en strategi for å trekke muslimer med i kampene.

Wukro ligger bare vel 260 kilometer fra Eritreas hovedstad Asmara. Ifølge vitner som bodde i Wukro kom det en strøm av eritreiske soldater dit under krigen i Tigray.

– De plyndret banken

Vi snakker med «Aida» (Bistandsaktuelt kjenner hennes egentlig navn, men har valgt å anonymisere) som er bankfunksjonær og arbeidet i Wukro. På grunn av kampene i byen bor hun nå hos sine foreldre i Mekele. Noen få bankfilialer har åpnet i Mekele, men i Wukro er de fortsatt stengt. Grunnen er at de ble plyndret ev eritreiske soldater, ifølge «Aida».

– Da den eritreiske hæren tok kontroll over Wukro, brøt eritreiske soldater seg inn i alle banker og stjal alt som var, sier «Aida».

– Jeg er arbeidsledig nå. Selv om jeg fortsatt mottar lønn, har jeg ikke noe håp om å komme tilbake på jobb med det første. Det vil ta tid å reorganisere bankfilialen jeg arbeidet for, fordi de eritreiske soldatene lot ikke engang en eneste stol bli igjen, sier hun.

– De er her blant oss

Liknende rapporter om plyndring og drap utført av eritreiske soldater er blitt vanlige i Tigray. Eritreiske styrker skal angivelig være til stede i de mest utilgjengelige delene av Tigray, der de plyndrer og dreper sivile. Ifølge et øyenvitne ble de også sett i Mekele så sent som i midten av januar.

– De er her blant oss, sier en mann vi snakker med som bor i Mekele.

En annen mann vi får kontakt med på telefon kommer fra Adigrat, en annen by som skal ha blitt utsatt for eritreiske soldaters plyndring, er på et kort opphold i Mekele. Han bekrefter at eritreiske styrker deltar i krigen i Tigray.

– Jeg kan ikke skjønne hvorfor det stilles spørsmåltegn ved dette. Eritreiske styrker var uten tvil i Adigrat da hæren tok kontroll over byen. De er der fremdeles. De går fritt omkring, de plyndrer alt, de dreper sivile. Vi ser dem hver dag. Dette er fakta, sier han.

– De ruinerte byen

Ifølge denne kilden har eritreerne “ruinert byen”.

– Men nå blir det færre av dem. Jeg tror det kommer av presset mot Abiy-regjeringen i internasjonale medier. Jeg tror regjeringen gir dem ordre om å dra tilbake. De er ikke så mange som før, legger han til.

Det er vanskelig å få bekreftet eller avkreftet rapportene om krigshandlinger, siden store deler av regionen fortsatt er utilgjengelig.

Etiopia og Eritrea var i mange år i krig, og mange mennesker ble drept i krigen. Hatet er ennå sterkt hos mange etiopiere, ikke minst i Tigray som var krigsarena og har grense mot Eritrea. Dersom meldingene om at eritreiske styrker har deltatt i krigen i Tigray er riktige, betyr det at statsminister Abiy Ahmed har begått forræderi mot sitt eget folk ved å alliere seg med en annen makt, vil mange etiopiere mene.

Abiys regjering avviser beskyldningene som falske.

– TPLF laget falske uniformer!

Nebyu Sehulmicheal er leder for regjeringspartiet Tigray Prosperity Party (Abiy Ahmeds parti). Ifølge han er det andre grupper som står bak plyndringene og drapene.

– Før de ble drevet ut av Mekele, produserte TPLF eritreiske uniformer. Det var for å lure folk til å tro at Eritrea var involvert i krigen. De laget også uniformene til den nasjonale hæren. Like før de ble slått, løslot de i tillegg mer enn 10 000 fanger fra hele Tigray, som var fengslet for alvorlige forbrytelser. Alt dette var en TPLF-konspirasjon for å destabilisere overgangsregjeringen i Tigray, sier Nebyu.

Bistandsaktuelt har spurt kildene som forteller om eritreiske soldater i Tigray, hvordan de kan vite at det virkelig er soldater fra den eritreiske hæren og ikke grupper organisert av TPLF? Folk fra Tigray og Eritrea snakker jo samme språk.

– Jeg hørte det på aksenten deres. Eritreere har en annen aksent enn tigrayere. Alle kan skille dem fra hverandre på måten de snakker. Jeg er ganske sikker på at de var eritreere, svarer «Aida».

– På aksenten, men også fordi de kjører gamle lastebiler. Lastebilene deres er forskjellige fra de etiopiske. Jeg har med egne øyne sett eritreisk nummerskilt på en av lastebilene deres, svarer mannen fra Mekele.

– På språket, uniformene og utseende – de ser veldig fattigslige ut, svarer han fra Adigrat.

Sensitivt spørsmål

Etiopiske samfunnsforskere og eksperter som følger nøye med på disse spørsmålene, avstår fra å gi offentlige kommentarer. De ser temaet som meget sensitivt, og de fleste frykter reaksjoner fra myndighetene. Men en etiopisk forsker som er ekspert på Afrikas Horn kommenterer anonymt:

– Det er vanskelig å kommentere dette spørsmålet i en situasjon der det ikke finnes konkrete bevis for situasjonen på bakken. Så det vi kan gjøre er å analysere rapportene i lys av tidligere trender, framferden til den eritreiske regjeringen og dens tidligere forhold til Etiopia, sier eksperten.

Eksperten mener det er så godt som sikkert at Abiy fikk indirekte støtte fra Eritrea til å kaste ut TPLF.

– Det er ingen tvil om at Eritreas regjering er en svoren fiende av TPLF. De har i årevis arbeidet for å styrte TPLF, fordi TPLF sto i veien for deres økonomiske interesser med Etiopia, sier eksperten, som legger til at Eritrea framskyndet TPLFs nederlag ved å hjelpe etiopiske soldater som flyktet til Asmara i første fase av krigen, samt gjennom diplomatisk støtte.

Afwerki besøkte Egypt og Sudan

– Eritreas president Isaias Afwerki var i Sudan og Egypt under Tigray-krigen. Det er svært sannsynlig at han overtalte de to landene til ikke å støtte TPLF. Isaias har avhjulpet de diplomatiske utfordringene Abiy kunne stått overfor ved å justere det regionale diplomatiet til Etiopias fordel, sier eksperten.

I et ekstraordinært møte i nasjonalforsamlingen 30. november vedgikk statsminister Abiy selv at Eritrea hadde utstyrt og forpleid etiopiske styrker som søkte tilflukt i Asmara.

Påstandene om eritreisk innblanding i Tigray har lenge blitt framsatt av TPLF. Selv før krigen hevdet TPLF at Abiy og Isaias hadde en plan om krig mot Tigray. Abiy avviser påstandene som sprø propaganda.

Både 14. og 27. november skjøt TPLF raketter mot Eritreas hovedstad, med begrunnelsen at Eritrea sendte soldater til Tigray på invitasjon fra Abiy Ahmed. Eritrea nektet for at de var involvert. Men medier med tilknytning til opposisjonsgrupper i Eritrea rapporterte samtidig om Eritreas engasjement i Tigray-krigen.

Topp-militær og ordfører bekreftet

Generalmajor Belay Seyoum i den etiopiske hæren sa 25. desember at eritreiske styrker hadde rykket inn i Etiopia uten invitasjon. Generalen sa dette da han svarte på spørsmål fra innbyggere i Mekele under et offentlig møte med overgangsregjeringen i Tigray. På det samme møtet opplyste den nåværende ordføreren i Mekele, Atkelt Haileselassie, at regjeringen arbeider hardt for å få disse styrkene til å forlate Tigray.

En talsperson for USAs utenriksdepartement sa 10. desember til nyhetsbyrået Reuters at påstander om Eritreas deltakelse i Tigray-krigen var basert på troverdige rapporter. Talspersonen oppfordret Eritrea sterkt til å trekke sine styrker ut av Tigray.

Forrige uke ba Ethiopian Citizens for Justice, et nasjonal-liberalt opposisjonsparti dannet av den prominente politikeren Berhanu Nega, om et klart svar fra Abiy-regjeringen om eventuell involvering fra andre land i krigen i Tigray.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 61 – 20 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 19 January)

● Reported that 9.2% or about 65,000 children under five years of age in Tigray are suffering from acute nutritional deficiency such as wasting.

● Reported that 5 families have been found dead of starvation in Erop, Eastern part of Tigray.

● A video and pictures have emerged showing the extent of the damage Eritrea and Ethiopian forces caused to Cherkos Church in Zalanbesa, Tigray. The church was carved during the 5th century. It appears bombed and looted and one side is completely destroyed.

● More pictures coming out from Wukro, 40 km from Mekelle showing buildings, hotels, shops, banks and cars heavily destroyed, allegedly by Eritrean and ENDF allied forces.

● Osman Abukar Dubbe, Minister of Information from Somalia, denies reports that Somali soldiers took part in the conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. He states reports that hundreds of Somali soldiers were killed in the conflict is untrue.

● Other sources continue to stand by the story that Somali youth are fighting in Tigray. The reported number of soldiers that would have been sent to Tigray varies.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 19 January)

● The Electoral Board of Ethiopia states that it canceled the license of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Elections are due on 5 June. The TPLF held an election in Tigray on 9 Sept which the TPLF won.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 19 January)

● The European Union is sending the Finnish foreign minister Pekka Haavisto to negotiate with the Ethiopian government to open up a full access humanitarian corridor in Tigray. Pekka Havvisto intends to report back to the EU Council.

● The top priority of the EU is full humanitarian access: “International humanitarian law is not about giving access to government-controlled areas (..) International humanitarian law means giving access to all areas where people need us, and it’s very clear that this is not the case with the current agreement. We have told the Ethiopians that we stand ready to negotiate something different, but what is now on the table is not working.”

● UNHCR led the first humanitarian mission to the refugee camps Mai Aini and Adi Harush in Tigray and found thousands of Eritrean refugees in “desperate need” of supplies and services. Ethiopia granted UNHCR a one-time access to conduct a needs assessment, in the two camps. UNHCR did not receive authorisation to enter two other camps, believed to be under intense strain.

● A second EU official stated that the approach by the UN, based on the idea that some access was better than no access at all, had failed, and stated: “The government is still claiming that things are getting better, at least where they have control. It’s not true. It doesn’t work.”

● A spokesperson for the European Commission’s development department said Ethiopia will have to comply with the following conditions before the EU will disburse future budget support: “Granting full humanitarian access for relief actors to reach people in need in all affected areas, in line with International Humanitarian Law. Civilians must be able to seek refuge in neighboring countries. Ethnically targeted measures and hate speech must stop. Mechanisms to monitor human rights violations must be put in place to investigate allegations of breach of Human Rights. Communication lines and media access to Tigray should be fully re-established.”

● Reported that both the Ethiopian prime minister’s spokeswoman Billene Seyoum and Tigray’s interim Governor Mulu Nega are yet to respond to emailed queries seeking insight on the matter of humanitarian assistance reaching Tigray, Al Jazeera states.

● Mehari Taddele Maru, a professor at the European University Institute, alleged the refusal to allow unhindered access to the region was meant to keep news of starvation and abuses by state forces under the wraps. (AJ)

● Mehari Taddele Maru states that the “Deliberate obstruction of humanitarian access is a classic method of systematic starvation of people (..) Ethiopian government and Eritrean troops continue to obstruct access to humanitarian aid. The blanket continues and thus first-hand information is almost impossible to get. The restriction of information is in itself a crime of the state to hide other crimes.”

● Murithi Mutiga, Horn of Africa project director for the International Crisis Group comments on the looming famine: “In past conflicts, mass starvation in parts of Tigray has stiffened local resistance and led to prolonged conflict” (AJ)

● Murithi Mutiga states that “If the government is to be taken at its word that its campaign is aimed only at ousting the TPLF and not at harming the Tigrayan people, they should swiftly accede to the demands of humanitarian agencies for access to Tigray and even to areas TPLF forces may still control to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe.”

● Daniel Bekele, Ethiopia’s human rights commissioner, said greater access to media, human rights groups, and international organisations should be allowed and that civilian-military coordination was needed to smooth out hurdles in humanitarian access. ( 6/1, online briefing by the Geneva Press Club)

● The Sudanese government has launched an appeal to the international community to provide urgent aid and to increase support and contributions to help Ethiopian refugees who fled to eastern Sudan as a result of the fight in the Tigray region.

● Responding to the alleged attack on people at the Maryam Zion Church in Aksum, Michael Gervers, professor of history, University of Toronto, states: “The government and the Eritreans want to wipe out the Tigrayan culture. (..) The looting is about destroying and removing the cultural presence of Tigray.”

● Canada expresses concern of the humanitarian situation in Tigray, the situation of refugees and the “continued barriers to humanitarian access”. The Government of Canada states that the “protection of civilians must be upheld in accordance with international law & humanitarian principles”.

● Diaspora kids from Tigray publish “A New Song” to stop the war in Tigray.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

19/01/2021 News and Commentaries

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  1. ‘Swift action’ needed in Tigray to save thousands at risk, UNHCR warns. UN News
  2. Starvation crisis looms as aid groups seek urgent Tigray access. Al Jazeera
  3. Can Ethiopia heal after the TPLF killings? The African Report
  4. ‘No Somali soldier killed in Ethiopia-Tigray conflict’ Anadolu Agency
  5. Anthony Blinken | Actions of the Ethiopian federal government could destabilize the Horn Of Africa. YouTube
  6. Somali mothers protest in Galkayo demanding answers to whereabouts of their missing children.
  7. China at the heart of rising Nile River conflict Asian Times
  8. Podcast: Red Sea rivalries: The Gulf, the Horn, and the new geopolitics of the Red Sea. Brookings | Transcript

 

1. ‘Swift action’ needed in Tigray to save thousands at risk, UNHCR warns. UN News

” … help is urgently needed for the tens of thousands of Eritrean refugees in northern Ethiopia”

 

2. Starvation crisis looms as aid groups seek urgent Tigray access. Al Jazeera

Humanitarians sound alarm for millions of people in need of emergency assistance in Ethiopia’s conflict-hit northern region.

“People are dying of starvation. In Adwa, people are dying while they are sleeping. [It’s] also the same in other zones in the region,” said Berhane Gebretsadik, interim

“Deliberate obstruction of humanitarian access is a classic method of systematic starvation of people,” Mehari told Al Jazeera. “Ethiopian government and Eritrean troops continue to obstruct access to humanitarian aid. The blanket continues and thus first-hand information is almost impossible to get. The restriction of information is in itself a crime of the state to hide other crimes.”

 

3. Can Ethiopia heal after the TPLF killings? The African Report

“It is difficult, the defence force is in a very remote region. We cannot bury everyone, if we could we would. Their families can ask for their bodies.” ENDF’s Brigadier General Tesfaye Ayaylew says.

 

4. Anthony Blinken | Actions of the Ethiopian federal government could destabilize the Horn Of Africa. YouTube

Joe Biden’s candidate for the US State Department, Anthony Blinken, said before the Senate, “We are concerned about the actions of the #Ethiopia|n federal government and what is happening there could destabilize the #HornOfAfrica.”

 

5. ‘No Somali soldier killed in Ethiopia-Tigray conflict’ Anadolu Agency 

  • Mogadishu denies claims that hundreds of Somali soldiers killed while fighting against Tigray rebels

 

6. Somali mothers protest in Galkayo demanding answers to whereabouts of their missing children.  

 

7. China at the heart of rising Nile River conflict. Asian Times

China-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is Africa’s largest and most divisive development project.

The Chinese-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), despite a recent breakdown in talks on Africa’s largest development project, risks powering up a range of downstream tensions and rivalries.

These run from rising rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia to a festering border war between Ethiopia and neighboring Sudan. At stake, too, is the future of almost 90% of the water in the Nile River, the world’s longest waterway.

 

8. Red Sea rivalries: The Gulf, the Horn, and the new geopolitics of the Red Sea. Brookings | Transcript

The emergence of the Red Sea as a common political and economic arena offers opportunities for development and integration, but it also poses considerable risks. As Gulf countries seek to expand their influence in the Horn of Africa, they risk exporting Middle Eastern rivalries to a region that has plenty of its own; and they aren’t the only outside powers now paying attention. China recently established its first-ever overseas military base in Djibouti, just six miles from the only U.S. base in Africa. Amid historic changes in the Horn and a rapidly-changing landscape in the Red Sea, states with different cultures, models of government, and styles of diplomacy are shaping a new frontier where the rules of the game are yet to be written.

EU to dispatch humanitarian negotiator to Ethiopia after aid suspension

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Source: Devex | Vince Chadwick

The European Union is preparing to send Finnish foreign minister Pekka Haavisto to negotiate with the Ethiopian government as it pushes for unfettered access for humanitarians in the conflict-torn Tigray region.

EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell raised the possible visit on a Jan. 9 phone call with Ethiopia’s Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen, a spokesperson for the European External Action Service told Devex Monday, adding that the idea was “welcomed.”

The move comes after the EU announced its decision Friday to halt budget support for Ethiopia over the lack of humanitarian access in Tigray.

Haavisto is an experienced Greens politician and former development minister who has acted as a special representative and adviser in Africa for Finland, the EU, and United Nations, notably in Darfur. An EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Borrell accepted Haavisto’s offer to act on his behalf in talks with the Ethiopian government due to his high-level contacts and experience in the region.

Haavisto’s precise mandate and mission will be finalized in the coming days, the official said, with the current plan for him to travel to Ethiopia in time to report back to a Feb. 22 meeting of EU foreign ministers. Haavisto’s office declined to comment.

Last Friday, Borrell outlined the EU’s decision to stop sending development assistance directly to the Ethiopian government, citing restricted humanitarian access amid “reports of ethnic-targeted violence, killings, massive looting, rapes, forceful returns of refugees and possible war crimes.”

“In the absence of full humanitarian access to all areas of the conflict, we have no alternative but to postpone the planned disbursement of €88 million [$106.7 million] in budget support,” Borrell wrote in a blog post.

The figure includes the suspension of three planned payments: €60 million for regional connectivity, €17.5 million for a health sector transformation plan, and €11 million for job creation.

“We were under circumstances under which by no means we could give a single euro of the EU budget to this government, because of what’s going on,” the EU official told Devex.

A spokesperson for the European Commission’s development department said Ethiopia will have to comply with the following conditions before the EU will disburse future budget support:

  • “Granting full humanitarian access for relief actors to reach people in need in all affected areas, in line with International Humanitarian Law.
  • Civilians must be able to seek refuge in neighboring countries.
  • Ethnically targeted measures and hate speech must stop.
  • Mechanisms to monitor human rights violations must be put in place to investigate allegations of breach of Human Rights.
  • Communication lines and media access to Tigray should be fully re-established.”

The move only affects budget support, which goes directly to the government. Other development modalities, such as funding channeled through NGOs, and humanitarian programs will continue. Last month, the EU increased its emergency aid to the region by €23.7 million.

The spokesperson did not respond to questions on how the suspension would affect the EU’s 2021-2027 development work in Ethiopia, which is currently being programmed.

Ethiopia is one of the top recipients of official development assistance from the EU. It was allocated €815 million for the 2014-2020 budgetary period, plus more than €400 million from the EU Trust Fund for Africa.

The EU official said that the European commissioners responsible for development, humanitarian aid and foreign affairs will discuss in the coming weeks how the current situation could affect the amount and implementing modalities for 2021-2027. However, it would be counterproductive to try to use the programming process as leverage against Ethiopia, the official added, arguing it would only harm the relationship and recalling that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has plenty of other partners.

Stefano Manservisi, the head of the commission’s development department from 2016 to 2019 and now a distinguished non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development, said suspending budget support was an understandable move in the circumstances. But he underscored the need to maintain “constant, daily dialogue” with Abiy and others in order to preserve relations with Ethiopia.

“Here, we are talking about one of our biggest partners and strategic allies in the Horn [of Africa],” Manservisi told Devex. “[Ethiopia is] one of the biggest African states, from which depends the stability not only of the Horn but also of big parts of eastern Africa and Africa at large.”

The United Nations reached an agreement with the Ethiopian government late last year on humanitarian access in government-controlled areas, but EU officials argue that this is insufficient.

“International humanitarian law is not about giving access to government-controlled areas,” the EU official told Devex. “International humanitarian law means giving access to all areas where people need us, and it’s very clear that this is not the case with the current agreement. We have told the Ethiopians that we stand ready to negotiate something different, but what is now on the table is not working.”

A spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters Friday that despite some progress, “humanitarian relief operations continue to be constrained by the lack of full, safe and unhindered access to Tigray caused by both insecurity and bureaucratic obstacles imposed by federal and regional authorities.”

A second EU official told Devex that the U.N.’s initial approach — that some access was better than none — had failed. “The government is still claiming that things are getting better, at least where they have control,” the second official said. “It’s not true. It doesn’t work.”

The Ethiopian government did not respond to requests for comment.

Kapuściński and the Autocrats

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Source: Book and Film Globe |  Neal Pollack

The late Polish journalist, like no other writer, understood societies in crisis

Everyone’s busy checking Orwell out of the library and pretending to read 1984 right now, because apparently we live in an “Orwellian” reality. But if you really want to understand, or at least try to understand, what’s going on in America, I recommend reading Ryszard Kapuściński instead. Kapuściński was a Polish journalist who had more courage on an average Tuesday than you or I have had in our entire lives. He spent decades reporting from the most dangerous war zones on Earth. He would find what’s going on in the States tragic and comic in equal measure. Kapuściński saw what really happens when societies descend into revolt.

[…] Kapuściński had many specialities as a writer, but his best literary trick was explaining autocrats, how they work, and how societies function under them. In particular, his masterpieces, Shah of Shahs, about the end of the Iranian monarchy and the rise of the caliphate, and The Emperor, about the terrifying reign of Ethopia’s monarch Halie Selassie, can help shed some understanding on what’s going on today.

[…]

The Emperor

Ethiopia doesn’t exist in the American consciousness at all, except for guilt-making commercial pleas for aid during period famines, and as the source of culinary delicacies like injera bread and zilzil tibs for urban sophisticates. In the middle of the 20th century, though, it was a larger player on the world stage, first because Mussolini’s Italy invaded it, in a precursor to World War II. Then it’s “Emperor”, Halie Selassie, became a favored pet among the Western elite, even receiving Time’s “Man of the Year” award for resisting Mussolini even though he was hiding in the English town of Bath at the time.

In reality, as Kapuściński writes in his brilliant book The Emperor, Selassie was merely a savvy bureaucrat who wheedled his way to the throne, whispering society to bend to his whims and stealing countless billions to deposit into Swiss bank accounts. Whereas Shah of Shahs is a more on-the-ground “you are there” style of book, The Emperor comes in after Selassie death in 1975, when it’s relatively safe to talk about him and his misdeeds. Kapuściński, who covered Ethiopia during Selassie’s reign as well, seeks out the surviving members of Selassie’s court, as well as some of his former servants, to provide an account of life in the insanely privileged court of a country suffering from inconceivable poverty and starvation.

The pattern is somewhat similar to Iran’s: an elaborate system of favors and rewards, hoodwinking naive Westerners into donating capital and cash, and absolute incompetence at every level of society. Monstrous violence follows. Eventually, and pathetically, Selassie falls in a military coup. The palace empties. The Emperor has no clothes.

Aftermath

Kapuściński is equally harsh on these societies after the autocrats fall. What replaces the strongman is often just as murderous as before, if not more so. The mullah-ruled Iran is a mess of repression, spying, superstition, renunciations, and meaningless, bloody street demonstrations. In post-Selassie Ethiopia, he writes of the bizarre phenomenon of “fetasha“, which authorizes every citizen to search every other citizen at all times, without explanation:

“To get things under control, to disarm the opposition, the authorities order a complete fetasha [Amharic for search], covering everyone. We are searched incessantly. On the street, in the car, in front of the house, in the house, in the street, in front of the post office, in front of an office building, going into the editor’s office, the movie theatre, the church, in front of the bank, in front of the restaurant, in the market place, in the park. Anyone can search us because we don’t know who has the right and who hasn’t, and asking only makes thing worse. It’s better to give in. Somebody’s always searching us. Guys in rags with sticks, who don’t say anything, but only stop us and hold out their arms, which is the signal for us to do the same: get ready to be searched. They take everything out of our briefcases and pockets, look at it, act surprised, screw up their faces, nod their heads, whisper advice to each other. They frisk us: back, stomach, legs, shoes. And then what? Nothing, we can go on, until the next spreading of arms, until the next fetasha. The next one might be only a few steps on, and the whole thing starts all over again. The searchers never give you an acquittal, a general clearance, absolution. Every few minutes, every few steps, we have to clear ourselves again.”

[…]

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