IPIS Briefing January 2021 – Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict

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Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict

Ethiopia re-enters the abyss of war | 29 January 2021 | Ethiopia Insight

The Ethiopian federal government’s “law enforcement operation” in Tigray aimed to capture the rebellious rulers in the northern regional state. Thus far, however, the core leadership is at large, and the campaign has further exposed the country’s political fragility, pushing it into the abyss of a likely long-term war.

The Three-Country Alliance Against Tigray Might Jeopardize Ethiopia’s Future | 26 January 2021 | Eurasia Review

The Tigray war has turned into an all-out conflict, pitting Tigrayan forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation front (TPLF) against Ethiopian federal troops, the Eritrean army, Amhara militia and – as revealed last week – Somali soldiers.

Witnesses: Eritrean soldiers loot, kill in Ethiopia’s Tigray | 25 January 2021 | AP

The Eritrean soldiers’ pockets clinked with stolen jewelry. Warily, Zenebu watched them try on dresses and other clothing looted from homes in a town in Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region.

Ethiopia’s leader must answer for the high cost of hidden war in Tigray | 24 January 2021 | The Guardian

Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s long-serving former foreign minister, was one of the foremost African diplomats of his generation. He was gunned down this month in Tigray by the armed forces of a lesser man – Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister and Nobel peace prize winner. Some suggest it was the Eritrean military, Abiy’s allies, who killed Seyoum, although their presence in Tigray is officially denied. The circumstances of his death remain murky.

‘Choose – I kill you or rape you’: abuse accusations surge in Ethiopia’s war | 23 January 2021 | Reuters

The young coffee seller said she was split from family and friends by an Ethiopian soldier at the Tekeze river, taken down a path, and given a harrowing choice. “He said: ‘Choose, either I kill you or rape you’,” the 25-year-old told Reuters at the Hamdayet refugee camp in Sudan where she had fled from conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

The ‘peace’ that delivered total war against Tigray | 23 January 2021 | Ethiopia Insight

The Abiy-Isaias-Amhara pact was structured to result in either the complete conquest of Tigray or mutual destruction.

On ‘Rooftop of Africa,’ Ethiopia’s Troops Hunt Fugitive Former Rulers | 22 January 2021 | NYT

Politicians and military commanders who once led Ethiopia are being tracked down, caught and sometimes killed by their own country’s soldiers in the war in the Tigray region.

Ethiopie : préoccupée par les allégations de violence sexuelle au Tigré, l’ONU appelle à une politique de tolérance zéro | 21 January 2021 | UN News

La Représentante spéciale du Secrétaire général sur la violence sexuelle dans les conflits, Pramila Patten, a exprimé jeudi sa grande inquiétude concernant les graves allégations de violence sexuelle dans la région du Tigré en Éthiopie, en particulier le nombre élevé de viols présumés dans la capitale régionale, Mekelle.

Ethiopia denies Somali soldiers fighting in Tigray conflict | 21 January 2021 | BusinessDay

Somalia says reports of its fighters going missing were fabricated for political reasons as it is holding presidential elections in February.

Non, la guerre du Tigré en Éthiopie n’est pas terminée | 19 January 2021 | France culture

Il y a deux mois le Premier ministre d’Éthiopie Abiy Ahmed annonçait la fin des combats contre les rebelles du Tigré. Mais tout indique que les exactions s’y poursuivent et s’étendent même à d’autres régions d’Ethiopie.

The Axum Civilian Massacre of November 2020: Innocent blood on Concerned Leaders and Commanders’ Hands | 18 January 2021 | AigaForum

Eyewitness accounts are emerging with respect to the various reports of the Axum city November 2020 massacre of around 750 innocent people. There was/is no clarity about the killing due to the total communication blockage in the region. Diaspora Tigrayans who were in Axum for celebrating Axum Tsion (St Marry’s) annual religious event (locally and nationally called Hidar-Tsion) and others who were in Axum at the relevant time, as well as some media have begun sharing their harrowing experiences of and information on the massacre.

Ethiopia Tigray crisis: EU concern over war crime reports | 16 January 2021 | BBC

The European Union says it is getting consistent reports of ethnic-targeted killings and possible war crimes in Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray.

Trying treason: The case of MG Gebremedhin Fikadu et al. | 16 January 2021 | Ethiopia Insight

Seventeen Tigrayan military officers have been accused of treason. The jury is out as to whether their case will be tried in a military or civil court.

EU suspends Ethiopian budget support over Tigray crisis | 15 January 2021 | Reuters

The European Union has suspended budget support for Ethiopia worth 88 million euros ($107 million) until humanitarian agencies are granted access to people in need of aid in the northern Tigray region.

Ethiopia – Tigray Region Humanitarian Update Situation Report, 15 January 2021 | 15 January 2021 | OCHA | ReliefWeb

The security situation in Tigray Region remains dire with reports of sporadic fighting and population movement in search of safety, particularly in rural areas.

Major violations of international law at Tigray refugee camps: U.N. | 14 January 2021 | Reuters

There have been major violations of international law at two refugee camps in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, the U.N.’s refugee agency (UNHCR) said on Thursday.

Ethiopia: Humanitarian crisis worsens in Tigray | 14 January 2021 | DW

The conflict between Ethiopia’s government and the TPLF is fueling hardship in the Tigray region as sporadic fighting continues.

Ethiopia says ex-foreign minister killed by military after refusing to surrender | 14 January 2021 | Reuters

Ethiopia said on Wednesday its military had killed three members of the Tigray region’s former ruling party, including former Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin.

Sudan says Ethiopian military aircraft crossed border | 13 January 2021 | Reuters

An Ethiopian military aircraft crossed the Sudanese-Ethiopian border‮ ‬in a ‮”‬dangerous and unjustified escalation”, Sudan’s Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday.

As a Tigrayan, my bond with Ethiopia feels beyond repair | 12 January 2021 | African Arguments

As a child growing up in the then Ethiopian city of Asmara in the 1980s, my parents used to ask me what I wanted to be when I was older. My answer was always that I either wanted to be a fighter pilot or army general. The reason was simple. My father was a soldier in the Ethiopian army under the Derg regime and I too wanted to kill the nation’s “enemies”.

Ethiopian women raped in Mekelle, says soldier | 10 January 2021 | Reuters

Soldiers and police in the northern Ethiopian city of Mekelle have expressed concerns about insecurity, with one saying women were raped this week, after the city fell to federal forces during a war late last year.

Les réfugiés érythréens au Tigré, cible de l’armée du régime autoritaire | 9 January 2021 | RFI

L’inquiétude grandit autour du sort des réfugiés politiques érythréens qui se trouvent au Tigré. Au début du conflit en novembre, ils étaient près de 100 000 à vivre en Éthiopie après avoir fui Asmara et son régime autoritaire. Depuis deux mois, de nombreux récits font part d’exactions commises dans les quatre camps de réfugiés au Tigré par les soldats érythréens, dont on a maintenant la preuve de leur présence.

Almost 2.3 million people need aid in Ethiopia’s Tigray – U.N. Report | 8 January 2021 | Reuters

Fighting is still going on in several parts of Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region and almost 2.3 million people, or nearly half of the population, need aid, a U.N. report said.

The Ethiopian Conflict and the Abrogation of the AU Mandate by the Commission Chairperson | 7 January 2021 | African Arguments

The Ethiopian civil war broke out following the November 4 attack by Tigray regional forces on the base of federal troops in Mekelle, capital of the northern Ethiopian regional state. Although the relationship between Addis Ababa and Mekelle has been strained since the transition that saw Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed come to power in 2018, few expected the build-up of tensions to erupt at the time and in the form that it did.

Ethiopie: défis et difficultés de la nouvelle administration provisoire du Tigré | 6 January 2021 | RFI

Couac au sein du gouvernement éthiopien au Tigré. Le maire de la capitale provinciale Mekele a confirmé que les troupes érythréennes étaient bel et bien engagées au Tigré pour se battre aux cotés de l’armée éthiopienne. Sauf que le maire de Mekele n’était pas censé révéler cette information démentie depuis des semaines par Asmara et Addis Abeba. Un accroc qui montre les problèmes que rencontrent le nouvelle administration provisoire, nommée par le Premier ministre il y a deux mois et qui peine encore à s’affirmer.

Ethiopia Accuses Sudan of Killing Civilians in Border Row | 6 January 2021 | Bloomberg

Ethiopia accused Sudanese troops of killing “many civilians” in recent fighting over contested land at the nations’ border.

Amhara region police chief reveals how region’s police force guided federal steel-clad mechanized forces to join “war” in Tigray | 6 January 2021 | Addis Standard

A speech delivered by Commissioner Abere Adamu, Chief Commissioner of the Amhara Regional State Police Commission, added a new dynamic into a cascade events leading up to the armed conflict in Tigray regional state, which broke out two months ago on November 04/2020.

Reuters cameraman detained in Ethiopia has seen no evidence against him, lawyer says | 30 December 2021 | Reuters

Ethiopian police release detained Reuters cameraman without charge | 5 January 2021 | Reuters

Reuters cameraman Kumerra Gemechu has been held in solitary confinement for nearly a week without charge or being given any evidence of wrongdoing, his lawyer said.

Business and Human Rights

Ethnic conflict could unravel Ethiopia’s valuable garment industry | 20 January 2021 | The Conversation

Ethiopia has long been considered one of Africa’s economic wunderkinds. Until recently, it had relative political stability in comparison to other countries on the continent. And, with an average GDP growth rate of 10% in the past decade and a government that instituted policies friendly to foreign investors, the country was able to attract South and East Asian clothing manufacturers. These sell to international brands, such as Decathlon and H&M.

Arms Trade

Silencing of guns in Africa remains a pipe dream | 21 January 2021 | Media Review Network | IOL

The African Union set itself a goal of silencing guns on the continent by 2020 but has failed to achieve that goal dismally. Guns are still blazing in the DRC, CAR, Libya, South Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria.

Conflict

Over 80 killed in attack in Ethiopian border region with Sudan – state rights commission | 13 January 2021 | Reuters

Dozens Die in Ethnic Massacre in Troubled Ethiopian Region | 13 January 2021 | NYT

More than 80 civilians were killed in an attack on Tuesday in the Benishangul-Gumuz region on Ethiopia’s border with Sudan, the state-appointed Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said on Wednesday.

Atrocity Alert No. 235: Central African Republic, Ethiopia and Cameroon | 13 January 2021 | GCR2P | ReliefWeb

Atrocity Alert is a weekly publication by the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect highlighting situations where populations are at risk of, or are enduring, mass atrocity crimes.

All Is Not Quiet on Ethiopia’s Western Front | 6 January 2021 | Foreign Policy

How Addis Ababa deals with ethnic violence in the region of Benishangul-Gumuz will determine the country’s future.

Ethiopian forces killed scores in June-July unrest, report says | 1 January 2021 | DW

Ethnic violence erupted in Ethiopia after the killing of singer Hachalu Hundessa. A local human rights watchdog says Ethiopian security officers used “highly questionable” force.

Source: IPIS Briefing January 2021

New Footage Emerges of Possible War Crimes in Ethiopia

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The Washington Free Bacon | Two new videos have emerged showing what appear to be war crimes in the Tigray region of Ethiopia.

A video released Monday by a watchdog site shows the bodies of at least 20 men strewn across the road of a Tigrayan village. The watchdog site reports that Eritrean and Ethiopian troops killed the young men in a January massacre.

Additional footage allegedly shows Eritrean forces shelling a hilltop church, leaving the building in rubble. The church neighbors a famed mosque that occupying forces have also targeted in recent months.

Armed conflict broke out between Tigrayans and the Ethiopian government late last year after the Tigray Regional Government conducted local elections against Ethiopia’s orders. New reports indicate neighboring Eritrea has also sent troops into the region to support the Ethiopian government.

Dade Desta, the director of the Tigray Center for Information and Communication, said these actions amount to genocide and warrant U.S. action.

“They are trying to ruin the region by attacking the community’s identity and destroying it where they can. They destroyed the church for the sake of it,” Desta said of Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. “It’s happening everywhere in Tigray.”

Due to limited communications infrastructure and little on-the-ground reporting from the United States or United Nations, the full extent of war crimes in Tigray remains unknown. Both Tigrayan protesters and Republican lawmakers have urged the Biden administration to take action and pressure Ethiopia to end the violence.

The administration has thus far urged Eritrean forces to leave the region and asked for a ceasefire.

Desta said the Biden administration’s approach has been insufficient.

“Talking will never make them leave. You need action,” Desta said. “What we need today is a Kosovo-style intervention. People are dying in the thousands, it’s a genocide.”

The White House did not immediately return a request for comment.

Vår reporter i Etiopia: Slått ned og truet på livet

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Bistandsaktuelts reporter i Etiopia ble mandag formiddag angrepet og slått ned i sitt eget hjem. Tre bevæpnede menn trengte seg inn i boligen Lucy Kassa leier i hovedstaden Addis Abeba. Angriperne tok med seg pc-en hennes og truet henne med døden dersom hun fortsatte å skrive om situasjonen i den krigsherjede Tigray-regionen.

– De kom i dag, mens jeg var hjemme. Tre ukjente menn banket på døra mi, og da jeg åpnet kom de seg inn og slo meg ned, sier Kassa i en e-post som ble sendt få minutter etter den dramatiske hendelsen.

Lucy Kassa har i to år vært Bistandsaktuelts korrespondent i landet, og har skrevet en rekke artikler om den politiske utviklingen i tida før og etter fredsprisen til landets statsminister Abyi Ahmed.

Fra enkeltpersoner i det etiopiske eksilmiljøet i Norge har hun tidvis fått kritikk både for å være for kritisk til regjeringen og for kritisk til «det gamle regimet» som var dominert av folk fra partiet Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Statsminister Abyi Ahmeds regjering og TPLF er i dag de to motpolene i borgerkrigen i Tigray. Det var regjeringsstyrker og TPLF-styrker som gikk til krig mot hverandre i november i fjor, etter flere måneder med hatske utfall og økende spenning.

Det har siden den gang kommet en rekke rapporter om at etiopiske regjeringsstyrker har fått omfattende hjelp av militære styrker fra nabolandet Eritrea. Den etiopiske regjeringens talsmenn har imidlertid nektet å gi noen offisiell bekreftelse på at den tidligere fienden Eritrea nå er en alliert for de etiopiske regjeringsstyrkene.

Bevæpnet, men i sivil

Den 29-årige journalisten, som opprinnelig er fra Tigray-regionen, forteller at angriperne kom i sivil, men var bevæpnet. De presenterte seg ikke og viste ikke noen form for legitimasjon.

– De gjennomsøkte boligen uten å ha noen ransakingsordre. De truet med å drepe meg for å skrive dårlige historier om Tigray, sier Kassa som er ugift og bor alene.

Hun forteller at angriperne snakket det lokale språket amharisk. De forhørte henne om hennes forhold til «TPLF-juntaen», og kritiserte henne for å spre løgner. – Jeg fortalte dem at jeg ikke hadde noe med TPLF å gjøre, men de fortsatte å trakassere meg på grunn av min etniske bakgrunn. Jeg vet ikke hva de så etter, men de laget masse rot i boligen. Før de dro advarte de meg: «Neste gang vil vi ta deg hardere».

Kassa har tidligere forklart at det i skyggen av borgerkrigen i Tigray hersker en hatsk og spent stemning i den etiopiske hovedstaden og at det særlig er rettet mot folk med tigrayisk bakgrunn.

Hun sier at hun er for redd for å informere politiet eller snakke med en advokat om angrepet mot henne. Derimot mener hun at internasjonal presseomtale kan være hennes beste livsforsikring i den nåværende situasjonen, slik at de som står bak ikke tør å gå løs på henne igjen.

Innhentet stoff om kontroversielt tema

Kassa, som har jusutdannelse, startet sin journalistkarriere med å jobbe for et engelskspråklig magasin for seks år siden. Siden den gang har hun arbeidet for flere internasjonale medier, blant annet Al Jazeera, samt at hun har arbeidet med dokumentarfilm.

De siste par ukene har hun arbeidet med innhenting av informasjon til en artikkel om situasjonen i Tigray for den amerikanske avisen Los Angeles Times. Hun sendte av gårde artikkelen lørdag, men var i gang med ytterligere undersøkelser om saken.

– Bilder jeg hadde fått tak i var fra landsbyene Fiya K’eshi, Sebya, Kerestber og andre små landsbyer i utkanten av byen Adigrat, på veien mot Zalambessa. Det er mange eritreiske soldater der. De bor i gamle, forlatte leirer. Andre har overtatt skoler og hus tilhørende lokale bønder. Det er i disse landsbyene hvor kvinner blir bortført og utsatt for gjengvoldtekter.

Artikkelen for Los Angeles Times omtalte en hendelse der en lokal landsbykvinne hadde blitt holdt i forvaring i et par uker og gjentatte ganger blitt voldtatt av flere eritreiske soldater. Andre kvinner i lokale landsbyer har også blitt bortført, ifølge Kassa.

– Jeg planla også å dra til Tigray for å gjøre undersøke påstander om sult og finne ut enda mer om eritreernes opptreden i området, sier den unge journalisten.

Tronvoll: – Svært bekymringsfullt

En av verdens ledende eksperter på Etiopia, professor Kjetil Tronvoll, er alvorlig bekymret for pressefriheten i landet.

– Da Abiy Ahmed tok over i 2018 ble han lovpriset for å slippe fri alle journalister som var fengslet og åpnet opp for ytrings-og pressefrihet. Allerede i 2019 så man en mer restriktiv linje mot ytringsfriheten da det ble reist ny kritikk mot mot statsministeren. Men særlig siden sommeren 2020 og urolighetene i Oromia-regionen, og ikke minst siden krigen mot Tigray startet i november, har presse- og ytringsfriheten blitt sterkt begrenset. Flere journalister er nå igjen arrestert i landet, sier Tronvoll.

Han kjenner selv mange etiopiske journalister og redaktører som innrømmer at de utøver en stor grad av selvsensur, for å unngå å komme i vanskeligheter eller bli arrestert.

– Det er ikke mulig å snakke om positive liberale «reformer» i Etiopia, slik mange gjorde da fredsprisen ble kunngjort. De finnes ikke lenger, sier Tronvoll.

Blir selv hetset

Den norske professoren blir selv hetset av etiopiske myndigheter og er ved flere anledninger blitt truet på livet av etiopiere i eksil. Hetsen har økt etter at krigen i Tigray startet i november i fjor.

Lederen for den etiopiske etterretningstjenesten INSA, Shumete Gizaw, anklaget blant annet Tronvoll for å være betalt av TPLF for å spre desinformasjon om krigen i Tigray-regionen, skriver NTB i dag.

Anklagene, som Tronvoll bestemt avviser, ble formidlet av Etiopias statlige nyhetsbyrå ENA og ble raskt plukket opp av etiopiere i eksil, også i Norge. Det utløste en strøm av trusler, også drapstrusler, ifølge Etiopia-forskeren.

Tronvoll er professor i freds- og konfliktstudier ved Bjørknes Høyskole i Oslo og har forsket på Etiopia og Eritrea siden begynnelsen av 1990-tallet.

Bistandsaktuelt informerte mandag Utenriksdepartementet, den norske ambassaden i Etiopia og internasjonal seksjon i Norsk Journalistlag om saken. Prosjektleder Eva Stabell sier at NJ vil ta initiativ til at den internasjonale presseorganisasjonen International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) sender ut en pressemelding om saken.

Norsk professor trues på livet av etiopiere

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Bergens Tidende | En av verdens ledende eksperter på Etiopia, professor Kjetil Tronvoll, hetses av etiopiske myndigheter og trues på livet av etiopiere i eksil.

Tronvoll er professor i freds- og konfliktstudier ved Bjørknes Høyskole i Oslo og har forsket på Etiopia og Eritrea siden begynnelsen av 1990-tallet.

Han har også bakgrunn som professor i menneskerettigheter ved Universitetet i Oslo og har blant annet vært tilknyttet London School of Economics, Columbia University og universitetet i Addis Abeba i Etiopia som forsker.

De etniske og politiske skillelinjene er sterke i Etiopia, og Tronvoll er ikke uvant med hets og trusler.

Da Etiopias statsminister Abiy Ahmed, som i 2019 ble belønnet med Nobels fredspris, i november i fjor innledet en stor militæroffensiv mot Tigray-folkets frigjøringsfront (TPLF), tok det imidlertid helt av.

Svertekampanje

Den norske professorens analyse av offensiven ble ikke godt mottatt i Addis Abeba, der myndighetene innledet det Tronvoll betegner som en godt organisert svertekampanje.

Lederen for den etiopiske etterretningstjenesten INSA, Shumete Gizaw, anklaget blant annet Tronvoll for å være betalt av TPLF for å spre desinformasjon om krigen i Tigray-regionen.

Anklagene, som Tronvoll bestemt avviser, ble formidlet av Etiopias statlige nyhetsbyrå ENA og ble raskt plukket opp av etiopiere i eksil, også i Norge. Det utløste en strøm av trusler, også drapstrusler.

Ba UD om hjelp

I slutten av desember tok Tronvoll kontakt med Utenriksdepartementet og ba om bistand.

– Det pågår en aktiv koordinert hatkampanje mot meg fra etiopiske aktivister som sprer usannheter og ubegrunnede beskyldninger, som tilsynelatende er koordinert med etiopiske myndighetsorganer, sa han.

Tronvoll ba om at saken ble tatt opp med etiopiske myndigheter og krevde at anklagen fra INSA-sjefen ble trukket tilbake.

UD bekreftet at de så alvorlig på saken og lovet i midten av januar at Norges ambassade i Addis Abeba ville «ta opp saken på generelt grunnlag med etiopiske myndigheter».

Oppfordring fra Abiy

Hetsen avtok imidlertid ikke med det, noe Tronvoll gjorde departementet oppmerksom på.

– Jeg kan opplyse om at den formelle «kampanjen» mot meg i statlige medier, hvor det fremsettes ubegrunnede beskyldninger, fortsetter, skrev han i en ny henvendelse til departementet.

Uttalelser fra statsminister Abiy Ahmed tyder heller ikke på at det etiopiske regimet vil stanse sine forsøk på å sverte forskere som Tronvoll.

I begynnelsen av denne måneden oppfordret Etiopias statsminister i en Twitter-melding etiopiere i utlandet til å «slå tilbake mot» dem som kritiserer utviklingen i landet.

Måtte avlyse

At budskapet ble fulgt opp, hersker det liten tvil om. Få dager senere skulle Tronvoll sammen med eksperter fra Egypt og Somalia delta under en debatt i regi av Fellesrådet for Afrika, der temaet var konflikten som har oppstått mellom Etiopia og naboland som følge av landets store damprosjekt i Nilen.

Det arrangementet resulterte i nye drapstrusler mot Tronvoll, angivelig fra etiopiske nasjonalister og amhara-aktivister, og Fellesrådet fant det derfor tryggest å avlyse.

– Vi måtte prioritere innledernes egen sikkerhet og opplevelse av situasjonen, sier Fellesrådets daglige leder Aurora Nereid til Bistandsaktuelt.

Norsk samarbeidsland

– At man mottar trusler når man analyserer krig og menneskerettighetsbrudd er en erfaring jeg har levd med i mange år. Men, at aktivister oppmuntret av regjeringen i et av Norges samarbeidsland greier å begrense ytringsfriheten her i landet, er bemerkelsesverdig, konstaterer Tronvoll.

– Jeg håper at Utenriksdepartementet og Justis- og beredskapsdepartementet vil ta i denne problemstillingen med det alvor det forlanger, legger han til.

Etiopia er ett av ti land som i bistandssammenheng blir omtalt som partner for langsiktig utvikling av Norge og har de siste 20 årene mottatt rundt 6,3 milliarder kroner i norsk bistand, viser tall fra Norad.

Bistanden var ifølge UD på rundt 500 millioner kroner i fjor og året før på rundt 700 millioner kroner.

Ikke innsyn

NTB har bedt Utenriksdepartementet om innsyn i kommunikasjonen som har funnet sted mellom den norske ambassaden i Addis Abeba og etiopiske myndigheter om kampanjen og truslene Tronvoll utsettes for, men har ikke fått svar på forespørselen.

Statssekretær Jens Frølich Holte (H) oppfordrer i et generelt svar Tronvoll til å politianmelde truslene han har mottatt.

– Forsvar av ytringsfriheten er en viktig del av regjeringens utenrikspolitikk. I forbindelse med konflikten i Tigray har vi dessverre sett at meningsmotstandere møtes med trusler. Ytringsfrihet begrenses også på andre måter gjennom arrestasjon, utvisning eller trakassering av journalister og analytikere, sier han til NTB.

Håpløs oppfordring

– Utenriksminister Ine Eriksen Søreide (H) har gitt uttrykk for bekymring for hatspråk og tatt opp respekt for menneskerettighetene i samtaler med etiopiske myndigheter. Dette vil vi fortsette å gjøre. Alvorlige trusler som settes frem i sosiale medier utgjør politisaker og bør anmeldes, sier Frølich Holte.

En håpløs oppfordring, mener Tronvoll, og viser til at en slik anmeldelse med stor grad av sannsynlighet vil ende med henleggelse.

– Derfor sendte jeg en bekymringsmelding til Politiets sikkerhetstjeneste (PST) i november i fjor og ba dem om å gjøre en risikovurdering av min situasjon, noe de avviste som utenfor deres «mandat», forteller Tronvoll.

Ikke kjent med

Etiopias ambassade i Stockholm, som er sideakkreditert til Norge, opplyser til NTB at de ikke er kjent med at Tronvoll har mottatt drapstrusler.

I en usignert epost skriver ambassaden at de heller ikke er kjent med anklagene fra den etiopiske etterretningstjenesten INSA, om at Tronvoll mottar penger fra TPFL for å spre propaganda.

– Det vi derimot er kjent med, er professor Kjetil Tronvolls gjentatte og ubegrunnede kritikk og grunnløse alvorlige anklager mot den etiopiske regjeringen, heter det i eposten.

How South Africa Helped Expel Mussolini From Ethiopia

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Warfar History Network | National Interest | Troops of the British Commonwealth, particularly those of South Africa, played a key role in driving the Italians from Somaliland and Ethiopia. 

Here’s What You Need to Know: For this greed, Mussolini paid a heavy price in North and East Africa.

Boarding a train at the famous station built by the French as a terminus on the line from Djibouti, the Conquering Lion of the Tribe of Judah, Elect of God, Ras Tafari, Emperor Haile Selassie of Abyssinia left his capital Addis Ababa on May 2, 1936. He had been forced to abdicate by the indifference of the world to his plight and the impotence of the League of Nations to stop the march of fascism. Read more

Security agents killed in central Somalia roadside bomb attack

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Al Jazeera | Police say Abdirashid Abdunur, intelligence chief for Dhusamareeb town, was killed in the blast claimed by al-Shabab.

A roadside bomb went off just outside the central Somalia town of Dhusamareeb on Sunday, killing 12 agents working for the National Intelligence and Security Agency, police said.

Those killed included Abdirashid Abdunur, the head of the intelligence agency in Dhusamareeb, police officer Mohamed Ahmed said.

The al-Qaeda-linked armed group, al-Shabab, claimed responsibility for the attack.

Political leaders have been meeting in Dhusamareeb, a town about 510 kilometres (317 miles) north of the capital Mogadishu, to try to resolve a dispute over how to hold an election due on Monday.

A deal on how to choose a new president on Monday has been elusive so far, threatening to unleash more political turmoil.

Somalia had initially aimed to hold its first direct election in more than 30 years but delays in preparations, and the government’s inability to rein in daily attacks by al-Shabab, meant switching to an indirect vote, with elders picking legislators who would choose a president.

However, regional authorities in at least two of Somalia’s five federal states, Puntland and Jubbaland, oppose holding the election for now.

Somalia’s opposition cease recognising president as election row escalates

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MOGADISHU (Reuters) – An alliance of Somali opposition parties proposed the creation of a national council of lawmakers, opposition leaders and civil society to govern the Horn of Africa nation after the president’s term expired on Monday with no clear succession plan.

The power vacuum and divisions between political leaders was a boost to the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab insurgency, a Somali security analyst warned, citing a spate of recent attacks in a relatively peaceful part of the country.

The opposition alliance said they would reject any attempt to extend the term of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed and suggested the council could elect a transitional leader to govern until a new president can be chosen by lawmakers.

“We are against time extension, suppression, violence and further delay to the election,” the alliance said in a statement. “An election schedule should immediately without delay be displayed with agreed upon specified time.”

There was no immediate comment from the presidency. Aides had previously privately floated the idea of extending his term.

In a statement issued by its embassy in Mogadishu, the United States urged Mohamed to “act now to resolve the political impasse…and find agreement with Federal Member State leaders to allow the conduct of parliamentary and presidential elections immediately.”

“The political gridlock…has resulted in a disappointing lack of progress in fighting al-Shabaab.”

Somalia was initially planning to hold its first direct election since civil war erupted in 1991, but delays in preparations and continuous attacks by al Shabaab forced Somalia to plan another indirect vote.

Clan elders should have chosen lawmakers in December and the lawmakers were due to choose a president on Monday.

But selection of lawmakers was delayed after the opposition accused President Mohamed – who was seeking a second term – of packing regional and national electoral boards with his allies.

Leaders in two of Somalia’s five federal states, Puntland and Jubbaland, have said they will no longer recognise President Mohamed.

On Sunday night at midnight, the capital Mogadishu lit up with gunfire and drums as residents said they were celebrating the end of the president’s term.

“We are firing into the sky to say goodbye to the dictator Farmajo, he has burnt Somalia these four years,” said a soldier Aden Ali, using President Mohamed’s common nickname.

Hussein Sheikh Ali, Somalia’s former national security advisor and founder of the Mogadishu-based Hiraal think-tank, said al Shabaab had already taken advantage of the security vacuum to launch attacks in portions of central Somalia that had been relatively peaceful for around a decade.

“They (al Shabaab) are laughing out loud,” he said. “This is a failure by the president, Somalia’s political elite and the international community. They didn’t have a plan B to move forward.”

On Sunday, 12 security agents were killed by a roadside bomb outside the town of Dhusamareb in central Somalia where political leaders were meeting to try to resolve disagreements over the presidential selection process. Al Shabaab also launched repeated mortar attacks on the town.

The attack happened a week after four al Shabaab suicide attackers killed five people at a hotel in Mogadishu.

From Ethiopia’s Tigray region to Yemen, the dilemma of declaring a famine

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BBC | Every day, more and more reports of starvation trickle out of the Tigray region of Ethiopia that has been hit by conflict.

On Wednesday, Mark Lowcock, chief of humanitarian affairs at the United Nations, warned of a deteriorating humanitarian crisis in which aid still wasn’t reaching many affected people.

Earlier in the week, his predecessor Jan Egeland, now head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, was more blunt: “In all my years as an aid worker, I have rarely seen a humanitarian response so impeded and unable to deliver in response for so long, to so many with such pressing needs.”

Mr Egeland went on to say: “The entire aid sector . . . must also recognise our failure to define the scale of the crisis.”

In other words, will the United Nations call out “famine” and if so when?

Farming in Tigray’s rocky soils has long been a precarious endeavour, made worse over the last year by a plague of locusts. At the close of the growing season in September last year, international food security assessments were that 1.6 million of Tigray’s seven million people were relying on food aid to survive.

Conflict broke out on 4 November between forces from the region’s now-ousted ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and federal troops following sharp differences over the political make-up of the federal government.

The TPLF opposed the 2019 decision of Prime Minister Aibiy Ahmed to dissolve the ruling coalition, of which it was a part, leading to tensions that spiralled out of control.

The UN is now quietly admitting what others – including the United States – have been saying for weeks, which is that Eritrean troops control much of Tigray. The Ethiopian and Eritrean governments continue to deny this.

Most of Tigray has been sealed off from the world since then. Aid agencies are beginning to send their staff back in, and what they describe is disturbing: hospitals ransacked, people living in fear unable to obtain food or money, deaths from hunger and treatable illnesses.

Some Tigrayans who are able to make phone calls tell of massive looting, burning of crops, and literally millions of people beyond the reach of humanitarian aid.

In a leaked internal memo from 8 January, humanitarian staff from the UN, aid agencies and local government warned that hundreds of thousands were at risk of starving to death. They reported that they could not reach 99% of those in need – a number that aid agencies estimate is 4.5 million – more than 60% of Tigray’s population.

The Ethiopian government insists that these reports are exaggerated at best, and that it has the humanitarian crisis under control. It says that only 2.5 million people are in need and says it can reach almost all of them.

Ethiopia’s history of famine denial

It asks the European Union – its biggest donor – not to be distracted by the “transient challenge” of emergency aid to Tigray, and to continue its generous development aid to the country.

However, there is a history of Ethiopian governments hiding their famines.

In 1973, Jonathan Dimbleby’s film The Unknown Famine exposed mass starvation, hidden from the world by Emperor Haile Selassie. About 200,000 people died in the famine.

The emperor’s callous indifference brought Ethiopians on to the streets to protest and he was overthrown the next year.

In 1984, Tigray and the next-door province of Wollo were the epicentre of another famine, this time caused by a combination of drought and war, that led to between 600,000 and one million deaths.

The Ethiopian government at the time denied the existence of that famine until it was exposed by a BBC film crew, led by Michael Buerk and Mohamed Amin. That news report moved pop star Bob Geldof to record Do They Know Its Christmas? and provoke a global outpouring of charity.

That famine discredited the military government of Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam at home and abroad. Ethiopians hated being seen as beggars by the rest of the world.

In 2001, Ethiopia, then led by the TPLF, disputed the existence of famine conditions in the south-east of the country, where it was fighting an insurgency. An estimated 20,000-25,000 died in what was officially designated a “humanitarian emergency”.

Over the decades, the international humanitarian system has become far larger and more professional. There are sophisticated systems for monitoring child nutrition and food availability in African countries to give timely warning of food crises, to prevent famine.

Five years ago, the Ethiopian government and foreign donors responded to nationwide drought, setting up a relief programme that helped 10.2 million people.

Instead of old-fashioned food handouts, aid was designed to reach villagers before they were forced to sell their cattle and sheep, and to help them stay on their farms to plant for the next year.

But there are two big differences between the 2015-2016 emergency programme and the situation today: information and politics.

There simply isn’t enough information for the UN to declare a famine.

About 15 years ago, humanitarian professionals in the UN developed a standardized metric for measuring food insecurity. They came up with the “integrated food security phase classification” system, known as the IPC.

It has five levels, from “minimal food insecurity” through increasing degrees of severity to the worst level, “famine”. The IPC uses a standard set of indicators including food consumption, numbers of malnourished children, and death rates.

‘No data, no famine’

This official definition of famine is much more precise than its everyday use as “large numbers of people suffering life-threatening hunger”.

But in solving one problem, the IPC system set up another. Now the UN can only cry “famine” when it has certain very specific information.

And, determined to avoid getting a “famine” designation, governments often conceal or manipulate data to achieve their goal – and downplay the severity of hunger. Meanwhile, in the next levels down, “emergency” and “crisis”, people are still dying – just at a slightly lower rate.

The UN has encountered this problem recently in other humanitarian disasters. In Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition, its client government and the Houthi authorities have denied humanitarian agencies access to hungry areas, meaning they can’t conduct surveys.

Without data on malnutrition, child deaths and food consumption, the members of the IPC committee arrive at the cautious conclusion that it’s an emergency, but they can’t say “famine” because they don’t have the information to prove it.

In South Sudan, the government couldn’t stop the data gathering. But it intervened in the IPC food assessment in December to downgrade the “famine likely” finding.

We shouldn’t be quibbling over definitions. According to a study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, over 380,000 people died of hunger and violence over the five years of South Sudan’s civil war – but only around 1% of these died in places that met the official threshold of “famine” in Unity State in 2017.

‘Dilemma for aid agencies’

The other big problem is politics. When the cause of mass starvation is military policy, humanitarian agencies face a terrible dilemma. Will they denounce the abuses and risk getting thrown out of the country? Or will they stay silent and become complicit in starvation crimes?

The Ethiopian government admits only to “sporadic fighting”. However, reports from the affected area show that vast swathes of rural Tigray are either battlefields or are controlled by the insurgent TPLF.

Under the definition of international humanitarian law, this is an armed conflict, and the Tigray rebels constitute a belligerent party. Getting aid to the hungry needs negotiations for a ceasefire with the TPLF – it simply can’t be done with the co-operation of one side only.

Up to now, the TPLF hasn’t offered a ceasefire or access to aid agencies. And there’s always a risk that the rebels will misuse the aid to feed their own troops. That’s why international monitoring is essential.

The starvation in Tigray poses the humanitarians’ dilemma in its sharpest form. How can they challenge the official story about the crisis without endangering their limited but essential operations?

There’s an old truism among aid workers: humanitarian crises don’t have humanitarian solutions. What’s needed is high-level political action.

Recognizing this as a problem that recurs in crises as diverse as Syria and Congo, three years ago the UN Security Council passed resolution 2417 on armed conflict and hunger.

As well as reiterating that the use of hunger as a weapon may constitute a war crime, the resolution, which has not been activated up to now, requires the UN Secretary General to alert the Security Council quickly whenever there is a possibility that armed conflict will lead to widespread food insecurity or famine.

The resolution could almost have been designed with the Tigray crisis in mind.

But humanitarian agencies are nervous about invoking it, because they don’t want to offend the Ethiopian government.

We can’t put reliable numbers on the hunger, sickness and death in Tigray, but we know enough to be sure that an immense tragedy is unfolding.

Alex de Waal is the executive director of the World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in the US.

European envoy in Sudan to ease tension with Ethiopia

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Anadolu Agency | Tension escalated between Sudan and Ethiopia over their border dispute

A European special envoy is set to arrive in Sudan on Sunday for talks aimed at easing tension with Ethiopia over their border dispute.

“The High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy in the European Union, Josep Borrell, assigned the Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pekka Haavisto, to visit Sudan and Ethiopia as a special envoy of the European Union,” the EU Mission in Sudan said in a statement.

The visit aims “to help ease tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia, and to find out how the international community can provide support in finding peaceful solutions to the current crises facing the region”, the statement added.

Haavisto is expected to stay in Khartoum for two days where he will meet Sudan’s top officials, including Abdelfattah al-Burhan, chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok and Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din.

Relations between Khartoum and Addis Ababa witnessed tensions over Sudanese accusations to Ethiopia of supporting gangs that targeted Sudanese territories along with stuck talks over border demarcation.

Sudan: Further GERD filling ‘direct threat’ to national security

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Al Jazeera | Irrigation and water resources minister says the unilateral move by Ethiopia in July would ‘threaten the lives of half the population in central Sudan’.

Sudan has said neighbouring Ethiopia should not unilaterally go ahead with the further filling a massive dam on the Blue Nile River, saying such a move would threaten its national security.

The comments on Saturday by Sudanese Irrigation and Water Resources Minister Yasser Abbas marked the latest expression of Sudanese concern about Addis Ababa’s apparent determination to fill the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) without first reaching an agreement with Khartoum and Cairo.

“The filling of the Renaissance Dam by one side next July represents a direct threat to Sudan’s national security,” Abbas told Reuters news agency.

In a separate interview with AFP news agency, Abbas said the filling the dam would also “threaten the lives of half the population in central Sudan, as well as irrigation water for agricultural projects and power generation from [Sudan’s] Roseires Dam”.

There was no immediate reaction by Ethiopian officials.

Ethiopia has been building the GERD on the Blue Nile, close to its border with Sudan, and says the dam is crucial to its economic development. Sudan hopes the hydropower dam will regulate annual flooding, but fears that its own dams, including the Roseires and Merowe, would be harmed if no agreement is reached.

Egypt, meanwhile, views GERD as a big threat to its freshwater supplies, more than 90 percent of which come from the Nile.

Ethiopia began filling the reservoir behind its dam after the summer rains last year despite demands from Egypt and Sudan that it should first reach a binding agreement on the dam’s operation.

The latest three-way talks were held last month in the presence of observers from the African Union (AU) and European Union, but failed to make headway.

On Saturday, Abbas said Sudan was also proposing a mediation role for the United States, EU, United Nations and AU as a way of breaking the deadlock in talks about the dam between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia.

The Blue Nile flows north into Sudan, then Egypt and is the Nile’s main tributary.

The Nile, the world’s longest river, is a lifeline supplying both water and electricity to the 10 countries it traverses.

Its main tributaries, the White and Blue Nile, converge in Khartoum before flowing north through Egypt to drain into the Mediterranean Sea.

The warnings from Abbas come amid increased tensions between Addis Ababa and Khartoum in recent weeks following skirmishes at the Al-Fashaqa border region, where Ethiopian farmers cultivate fertile land claimed by Sudan.

In December last year, Sudan accused Ethiopian “forces and militias” of ambushing its troops along the border, leaving four dead and more than 20 wounded. Both sides have since moved tanks and heavy weapons along the frontier, accusing each other of pushing further into the contested area.