One of the major wrongdoings committed by the TPLF during its rule in Tigray was its deliberate prevention of the formation and strengthening of alternative political parties in the region. The TPLF exploited the name of the Tigrayan people for its own benefit for nearly 30 years, a strategy whose consequences became evident during the war. A single party that monopolizes power cannot endure indefinitely. For genuine stability, alternative parties are necessary. In times of crisis, these alternatives could have provided a way out.

The TPLF has now lost nearly everything—not just its control over federal power, but even its regional influence in Tigray. The EPRDF, which it founded and led for nearly 30 years, has been dismantled. The wealth it accumulated in the name of the people of Tigray, particularly through EFFORT, has been mostly destroyed, confiscated, or looted during the war. Its ideology, which guided the country for three decades, was effectively buried last month. Neither the TPLF nor the people of Tigray have representation in federal institutions. The only remnant of its legacy is the constitution (& perhaps some mega projects like GERD?), which could have been altered long ago if not for the presence of other federalist forces.

As a party that held power for nearly 30 years, the TPLF has rapidly declined from something to nothing. Now, its only hope lies in reasserting control over Tigray with the help of some overseas assets (belonging to EFFORT) that survived the devastation of the war. Those who control these remaining assets are attempting to consolidate their power by gathering loyal cadres and expelling those they fear might betray them.

Meanwhile, those leading the interim government, who have been labelled as traitors, are fiercely determined to prevent power from slipping away. Both factions are fixated on securing control, engaging in infighting that could jeopardize the national interest of Tigray and potentially leave them vulnerable to external manipulation.

Today, the Provisional Government of Tigray may be inclined to accept new laws, regulations, and procedures imposed by the federal government, even if they undermine the interests of Tigray or exceed their mandate, as their leverage is being eroded by internal conflicts. If the interim government challenges federal orders, it risks losing authority, which could then fall into the hands of its retired adversaries, who are eager to plunge Tigray back into conflict. This would undoubtedly worsen the situation for Tigray.

The new, fragmented parties must unite and strengthen their capacity in the interest of the Tigrayan people, or perhaps find a way to collaborate with the interim government, thereby exerting influence effectively.