Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 31 – 20 December

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Regional dimension (as confirmed per 20 December

– IGAD to meet Sunday 20 Dec in Addis Ababa, chaired by Sudan PM Hamdok. Today a meeting was held in Djibouti between Djibouti PM Kamil Mohamed, Somalia Pres Farmaajo and VP Mabior of South Sudan.

Military situation (as confirmed per 20 December)

– Tension between Ethiopia and Sudan is increasing. Sudan has sent more troops, including Rapid Support Forces, and equipment to the border area. Support from the Bani Amer and al-Habb tribes in the states of Kassala and Gedaref, including food supplies and finances. Talks with Ethiopia have stopped.

– A report based on testimonials of three Egyptian officials and one European diplomat indicates that the UAE used its base in Assab (Eritrea) to launch drones strikes against Tigray. The investigative platform Bellingcat confirmed the presence of Chinese-produced drones at the UAE’s military base in Assab, Eritrea.

– Egyptian officials are reportedly concerned about strengthening ties between the UAE and Israel. They fear that both countries will collaborate in the construction of an alternative to the Suez canal starting from Haifa in Israel.

– Egypt is reportedly encouraging Sudan to support the TPLF in Tigray. It wants to strengthen a joint position in relation to negotiations on the GERD Dam, which impacts both countries downstream.

– Sudan has reportedly captured Eritrean soldiers dressed in Amhara militia uniforms fighting along the Sudan border alongside Amhara special forces.

– A foreign diplomat has stated that “thousands” of Eritrean soldiers are engaged in Tigray. Two diplomats stated that Eritrean troops entered Ethiopia through three northern border towns: Zalambessa, Rama and Badme.

– Killings occurred in Edaga Hamus, a small town in Tigray. Eritrean soldiers reportedly killed approximately 150 civilians, including a priest and women seeking refuge in a church, located 4 km to the west of Marieam Dengelat. The town and some rural villages (Maimegelta, Dengelat, Tsa’a and Hangoda) are under the
control of Eritrean forces. The military is slaughtering the animals. People are starving to death.

– Eritrean soldiers were in Mekelle (Tigray), according to a resident and two diplomats receiving information from the ground. They state that some soldiers were wearing Eritrean uniforms, whilst others wore Ethiopian uniforms but “spoke Tigrinya with an Eritrean accent and drove trucks without license plates.”

– There are multiple reports that the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) are looting property from the Sur Company and transporting the loot to Addis Ababa.

– A deacon and 15 civilians were killed by Eritrean and ENDF soldiers in Adigrat while trying to protect the Addis Pharmaceutical Factory from looting.

International dimension (as confirmed per 20 December)

– US Senators Booker (D-NJ) and Young (R-IN) released a joint statement on the conflict in Ethiopia: “The conflict in Ethiopia remains far from over, despite Prime Minister Abiy’s claim that military operations are complete. We are deeply concerned by reports of Eritrean refugees in Tigray being killed, abducted and forcibly returned to Eritrea by Eritrean forces, as well as disturbing reports that some trying to reach safer areas are being prevented from leaving.” They also noted that “the internationalisation of the conflict is a threat to US interests” and called on Ethiopia to abide by its commitments.

– Cameron Hudson, a former director for African affairs at the US National Security Council, stated that there is division in the U.S. government on speaking publicly about Eritrea’s involvement in Tigray, due to strategic and tactical considerations.

– An analyst believes that Eritrean President Isaias is weak and when the TPLF is removed, Eritrean generals will remove Isaias, leading to “integration” of Eritrean and Ethiopia, giving Ethiopia access to a seaport.

– The EU has stated that Tigray is on the edge of a humanitarian catastrophe which risks destabilizing the whole neighbourhood. The EU increased humanitarian funding for the area by €23.7 million on Saturday. EU humanitarian assistance will go to organisations in Ethiopia, Kenya and Sudan.

– UN deputy spokesperson for SG Antonio Guterres, has stated that many people in the region have not received any assistance, and that deliveries by some agencies have been limited. The UN continues to “call for immediate and unfettered access to all areas where people have been affected by the fighting.”

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 20 December)

– Police and TPLF absence has led to lawlessness in Mekelle. Youth especially targeted by ENDF soldiers.

– Electricity and phone lines intermittently working in Mekelle, but not in most areas in Tigray. The Internet is still down.

– Civil servants were ordered back to work by the provisional government in Tigray but few report to work.

– The UN reports that many Tigray people have no access to food, water, cash, power and telecommunications.

– Catholic Bishop Tesfaselassie Medhin of Adigrat has been reported safe in his residence.

– The Apostolic Nuncio to Ethiopia, Archbishop Antoine Camilleri, expressed “solidarity with Bishop Medhin who was missing in the assembly because of the situation in his diocese where the war is hard hit.”

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 20 December)

– Ethnic profiling of Tigray continues. A prominent Tigrayan activist and lawyer living in Addis Ababa, was detained on Saturday by Ethiopian police. A former TV Tigray employee and several priests of Tigrayan ethnic origins were also reportedly arrested. Another Tigrayan, an Ethiopian Airlines employee was arrested last week.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

 

Links of interest

https://www.booker.senate.gov/news/press/booker-young-joint-bipartisan-statement-regarding-the-conflict-in-ethiopia
https://africa.cgtn.com/2020/12/19/many-people-in-ethiopias-tigray-have-not-received-assistance-un-spokesman/
https://allafrica.com/stories/202012190027.html?utm_campaign=allafrica%3Aeditor
https://mada29.appspot.com/madamasr.com/en/2020/12/17/feature/politics/a-gulf-of-difference-how-the-uae-and-egypts-close-coordination-fell-apart-and-whats-next/?s=08
https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopia-conflict-eritrea-idUSKBN28I1OX
http://communications.amecea.org/index.php/2020/12/18/ethiopia-need-for-churchs-intervention-amid-tigrays-conflict-prelates-in-ethiopia-at-50th-assembly/

ፖለቲካዊ ሕጽቦ – ኢሳይያስ ኣፍወርቂ

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እዚ ጽሑፍ’ዚ፡ ፕረዚደንት ኢሳይያስ ኣፍወርቂ፡ ብ11 ሓምለ 2018 ድሕሪ ቐትሪ፡ ኣብ ሳዋ፡ ንተሳተፍቲ 8ይ ሃገራዊ ፈስቲቫል መንእሰያት ንህልዊ ኵነታትን ምዕባለታትን ቀርኒ-አፍሪቃ ኣመልኪቱ ካብ ዘካየዶ ሰሚናር ተጸሚቚ ዝቐረበ እዩ። መበገሲ ናይቲ ሕጂ አብ ትግራይን አብ ቀርኒ-አፍሪቃን ዝረአይ ዘሎ ቅልውላው እንታይ ክኸውን ከምዝኽእል ዝሕብር ጽሑፍ ኮይኑ ስለዝረኸብናዬ ክተንብብዎ አብዚ አቅሪብናዬ አለና። Read more

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 29 – 18 December

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Evolving situation (as confirmed per 18 December)

The Government of Sudan has accused Ethiopia of ambushing Sudanese troops on Wednesday. 4 soldiers died. Large military reinforcements deployed by Sudanese army along the border with Ethiopia after clashes in which Sudanese military were killed and wounded, reports Al Sharq newspaper.

Nine priests killed in the Church in Adi Aweshi, Tembien, Tigray, by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops.

Historic Al Nejashi Mosque (the first mosque in Africa ) was first bombed and later looted by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops. Tigrayan sources are saying that people have died trying to protect the mosque.

Reported that people have been killed in Oromo and Amhara region. The killings were carried out by seperatist groups. It fuels fears that the conflict will spread to wider Ethiopia as ethnic tensions rise.

Eritrean troops looted St. Mary, a Catholic church in Wukro, Tigray, and stole cars from the compound.

The TPLF reportedly used tanks after the beginning of military actions on November 4th. ENDF forces were besieged in some camps for 10 days, after which they surrendered.

Two doctors report heavy shelling at the start of the offensive. The shelling came from Eritrea, the border of which was 200 meters away. Following the shelling one doctor says that he counted 15 dead and 75 wounded. The second doctor says that they received 200 casualties of which 50 were dead on arrival. They mention a pattern of shelling, then arrival of government soldiers, followed by Amhara militias and special forces.

The doctors also reported that they had to evacuate the wounded on trucks as it became too dangerous to stay. Subsequently they had to hide for two days as shooting and killings were taking place nearby. They eventually fled to Sudan.

People have walked to Sudan covering distances of 300 km, reports BBC, and they saw many dead civilians on the way. A doctor states: “I have patients who say they saw Eritrean forces in Tigray who committed atrocities, burning houses and destroying farmland.”

Calls for investigation in the war crimes committed by all parties involved in the ground and air offensive which started on November 4th.

Increasing concern of ‘troll farm’ attacks to silence reporting on the situation.

International dimension (as confirmed per 18 December)

An official in Juba, South Sudan, states that the TPLF elected president, Debretsion Gebremichael, is seeking refuge there. It is understood that he has been in Juba for several weeks. When he arrived he asked the President of South Sudan to mediate. The official also said that Debretsion did not meet with President el-Sisi of Egypt while in South Sudan and did not ask to meet him.

Egypt has expressed full solidarity with Sudan after clashes on the Sudan – Ethiopian border, stating that “Khartoum has the right to defend its security and exercise sovereignty over its territories.”

Chairperson of the Horn of Africa Civil Society Forum, Albaqir Mukhtar, appeals to Sudan Prime Minister Hamdok, chair of the IGAD, “to use all efforts and all diplomatic avenues to bring all parties of this conflict to the negotiating table as has been done in South Sudan and Somalia.”

Ahead of the 20th December IGAD meeting the Horn of Africa Civil Society Forum urges Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed to accept IGAD as mediator in the regionalising conflict.

Julia Cassell, the former Minister of Gender from Liberia, urges African leaders to create the conditions for peace on the ground. Cassell is joined by nearly 120 women from 20 countries across the African continent: Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Benin, Niger, Ghana, Nigeria, DR Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Cameroon, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and South Africa.

In the US, Black Lives Matter stands in solidarity with “all disenfranchised and displaced people in the Horn of Africa who are affected by violent conflict in Ethiopia.”

Situation refugees (as confirmed per 18 December)

More than half of the over 65,000 refugees that arrived in Sudan are children and many have been separated from family members.

The ICRC has released statistics on medical and first aid assistance provided in Tigray. These include over 2000 wounded, of which 550 were critical.

UNHCR and partners working in four Tigray refugee camps with nearly 100,000 refugees continue to experience “challenges to access the camps and sustain the operational capacity on the ground.”

Refugees in the four camps in Tigray urge aid to be provided to the other two camps Shimelba and Hitsats and they warn that camps are not yet safe.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 18 December)

UN mission in Afar finds that “thousands of newly internally displaced people need water, sanitation and hygiene services, as well as medical supplies and care”.

There continue to be reports of Eritrean soldiers looting in Tigray. Computers and other equipment was allegedly taken from a school operated by a Catholic mission.

The United Nations has announced USD 36 million in emergency aid for civilians in Tigray. The majority will go to the purchase of medicine and food and civilian protection.

Mekelle University announces a graduation ceremony. The online announcement is not matching the reality on the ground as many students have left and students and professors are still out of reach.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 18 December)

Desert locusts threaten food security in Ethiopia and the wider region.

 

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-conflict-attack-idUSKBN28R1IE 
https://addisstandard.com/news-as-killings-of-civilians-continue-in-metekel-authorities-in-benishagul-gumuz-amhara-regional-states-step-up-blames 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55236354
https://www.unocha.org/story/daily-noon-briefing-highlights-ethiopia-4
https://www.sudanspost.com/ethiopias-debretsion-seeking-refuge-in-juba-official-confirms
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/397091/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-expresses-its-condolences-to-Sudan-over-vict.aspx
https://www.abnewswire.com/pressreleases/african-women-appeal-for-a-horn-of-africa-peace-initiative_523311.html

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 28 – 17 December

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Iternational dimension (as confirmed per 17 December)

– The European Union asks: (1) full humanitarian access, (2) allowing refugees to seek refuge in neighbouring countries, (3) end discrimination and ethnic prosecution, (4) the establishment of a mechanism for independent investigation of human rights violations, (5) and the restablishment of communication and media channels to Tigray.

Regional dimension (as confirmed per 17 December)

– The Somali Prime Minister is set to formally demand the removal of Kenyan troops from AMISOM. Reportedly he wants these replaced with Eritrean troops. Previously Ethiopian Tigray troops were taken off AMISOM. Eritrea has been accused in the past of training and supporting Al Shabaab. Observers warn the impact this re-arrangement may have on counter-terrorism policies.

– Somalia may stop issuing visas to Kenyan troops in AMISOM by the end of the month.

– In clashes at the Sudan-Ethiopia border, four Sudanese soldiers have been killed and twelve more wounded. The clash took place on territory claimed by Ethiopian farmers.

– PM Hamdok of Sudan deplores loss of military who “were ambushed by some Ethiopian forces and militias inside Sudanese territory”.

– Discussion on border issues between both countries was on the agenda of the Summit between Ethiopian PM Abiy and Sudan PM Hamdok last Sunday. Discussions on the border disputes are due to start next week in Khartoum according to the Sudan Tribune.

– Firefights are reported in Mogadishu as anti-government demonstrations are taking place. Local militias and security forces have been clashing.

Human Rights (as confirmed per 17 December)

– A Catholic bishop and several nuns and other missionary members, based in Adigrat, are missing.

– AFP reports that the Federal Ethiopian army separated men and women and executed a group of men
in the village of Bisober in Southern Tigray on November 14th.

– Witnesses tell about executions of civilians in the Wukro area during November 25th -29th.

Situation refugees (as confirmed per 17 December)

– Eritrean refugees who fled from Tigray refugee camps to Addis Ababa and were forced to return to Tigray have been taken to two camps (Mai Aini and Adi Harush), even if they lived in Shimelba and Hitsats camps before.

– There is a severe shortage of food and water in Mai Aini.

– Eritrean refugees are suffering from hunger and lack of medical assistance in Tigray refugee camps. Women are reportedly giving birth without medical assistance.

– Many families have been separated. Calls for an urgent family tracing program to support reunification and information regarding missing persons.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 17 December)

– In Tembien, Adi Qeweylo, Tigray, nine priests were killed by Federal Ethiopian and Eritrean troops.

– Reports of looting continue to come in. Eritrean soldiers are said to continue plundering valuable equipment from factories and universities. Videos have come out of what the descriptions claim are Eritrean trucks in Shire Endasilasie carrying loot back to Eritrea.

– Social media reports state that Eritrean soldiers may be engaged in “massive looting” of cultural artifacts. This could include raids on remote monasteries which keep ancient manuscripts. Ancient Christian religious manuscripts and texts may be in danger. Calls on UNESCO to investigate.

– Report that Al-Njesahi Mosque of Negash (Tigray) is looted; the oldest Muslim settlement in Africa.

– The UN has confirmed that 18 trucks have reached Eritrean refugee camps in Tigray.

– The UN states it does not have unhindered and full access to the region.

– More supplies, organised by the ICRC, have arrived in Mekelle.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 17 December)

– A number of Tigrayans who have spoken with the New Humanitarian have said that they have encountered growing ethnic profiling and discrimination. They are experiencing harassment on the streets, but have also been targeted by government investigations. The government has been acting against TPLF members, but non-members say that they have been targeted as well.

– The Ethiopian deputy PM, Demeke Mekonnen, has met with UN senior officials to discuss the latest developments in Tigray.

– CORRECTION: Journalist (as per yesterday’s report) not arrested but journey was delayed.

 

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links

https://sayarainternational.com/rapid-research-on-the-humanitarian-crisis-in-ethiopia/
https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2020/12/16/Ethnic-profiling-Tigray-tensions-Ethiopia
https://twitter.com/RAbdiAnalyst/status/1339228121216725008?s=20
http://www.africaglobalvillage.com/first-foreign-aid-arrives-in-tigray-as-civillians-recount-the-horrors/
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201215-terrified-survivors-recount-attacks-on-civilians-in-tigray
Sudan Tribune

 

Situation reports EEPA HORN

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website or here:

Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 1, 17 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 2, 18 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 3, 19 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 4, 20 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 5, 22 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 6, 24 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 7, 25 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 8, 26 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 9, 27 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 10, 28 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 11, 29 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 12, 30 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 13, 01 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 14, 02 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 15, 03 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 16, 04 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 17, 05 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 18, 07 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 19, 08 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 20, 09 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 21, 10 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 22, 11 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 23, 12 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 24, 13 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 25, 14 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 26, 15 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 27, 16 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 28, 17 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 29, 18 December 2020

What Ethiopia’s Brewing Conflict Means for the Country—and the Region

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Source: Small Wars | Aly Verjee and Susan Stigant | USIP Publication

A protracted conflict between the federal government and the Tigray region is still not inevitable, but it will require both sides to choose another path.

Violent conflict between the federal government of Ethiopia and the federal state of Tigray, in the country’s north, began November 4 and quickly escalated. USIP’s Aly Verjee and Susan Stigant discuss the crisis and identify what could be done to avoid further violent conflict in east Africa’s most populous country.

Unfortunately, violence is not new to Ethiopia; already, there are over 1.4 million conflict-affected internally displaced persons in the country. What is the broader significance of this latest violence between the federal government and the Tigray region?

Stigant: The rapidity of the escalation of violence between Tigray and Addis Ababa is concerning in itself, given the stakes for Ethiopia’s peace and stability. This conflict has the potential to quickly become more polarized and increase violence throughout Ethiopian society. Already, the Tigray region has called for the full mobilization of all citizens to fight. The federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has also used uncompromising language to justify his government’s actions. As the allegations and incidents mount—including possible war crimes—and the number of people affected increases, it will become much harder to find a peaceful solution.

At the same time, solely focusing on what is going on today in Tigray risks obscuring broader concerns about violence, democratic backsliding, and repression elsewhere in the country. As a horrific example of the type of violence in Ethiopia that has become all too common, on November 1, ethnically targeted killings left at least 54 people dead in a schoolyard in the Wollega zone of Oromia state. Throughout western Ethiopia, communal violence has only increased since 2018. In southern Ethiopia, tensions remain high, as the consequences of the model of ethnic federalism continue to unfold.

Verjee: As I warned in April 2019, tensions between the regions have the potential to overwhelm the political management capacity of the center. The conflict in Tigray has already pulled in forces from the neighboring Amhara Regional State to fight the Tigrayans. The leadership of the Somali Regional State has also taken the side of the federal government in the dispute. In the broader context, it does not really matter who is responsible for starting the violence; all Ethiopians, no matter their ethnicity, have to find a way to live side-by-side, which will not be accomplished by jailing or killing the political and military elite of Tigray. The ruling party of Tigray, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which once led the ruling party coalition that preceded the Abiy government, are no angels. But for the federal government to risk throwing the whole country into a protracted civil conflict—with significant cross-border consequences—is also highly unfortunate.

Already, a humanitarian crisis is in the making. More than 11,000 refugees have already crossed the border with Sudan, with thousands more almost certain to follow. Drawing in Eritrea and Sudan into the conflict may easily bring in other regional and extra-regional powers, leaving the Horn of Africa in a complicated, messy crisis from which it may take many years to recover, at a cost of thousands of lives. As the USIP Red Sea Senior Study Group recently warned, “Intrastate or interstate conflict would be catastrophic for Ethiopia’s people and for the region and would pose a direct threat to international peace and security.”

The dispute between Tigray and the federal government has been festering for some time. Could violence be avoided?

Stigant: The federal government has characterized its action as a rule of law operation to uphold the constitution, and that it would act with “utmost care for the overall wellbeing, safety and security of our citizens.” The federal government has described the September 2020 elections held by the Tigray region as illegitimate and has objected to equating the federal government to the TPLF. While there are more than two sides to every story, there is little doubt that relations were strained with Tigray. That said, the paramount constitutional right of any citizen is the right to life. Before resorting to military action and the attendant deaths of Ethiopian citizens, every other possibility needed to be exhausted, even if the Tigray authorities were being uncooperative. More pragmatically, the use of force rarely works to sustain a political settlement, as the history of Ethiopia has shown on numerous occasions.

As the cornerstone of his rule, Prime Minister Abiy set out a philosophy of medemer, or coming together, to overcome the divisions of the past. Less than a year ago, in accepting the Nobel Peace Prize, Abiy mentioned the word love seven times, and the words forgiveness and reconciliation four times each. Ethiopia does not need Abiy to love Tigray, nor vice versa; but forgiveness and reconciliation cannot occur if belligerent parties do not show restraint.

Verjee: The federal government has already suspended fiscal transfers to Tigray and cut off communications and cross-border trade. Even if the allegation that the TPLF posed an imminent threat by its purported seizure of weapons and a military base is entirely accurate, a proportionate, limited response was the most that could be justified. Although the federal government has said that its operations will be time limited, Abiy has also said that he will not rest until the “the criminal junta is disarmed, legitimate administration in the region restored, and fugitives apprehended and brought to justice,” which are objectives that could take months, if not years, to achieve. Although the warning signs have been there for some time, a protracted violent conflict is still not inevitable, but it will require both sides to choose another path.

Abiy should also consider that his own position as head of the government comes in the context of an ongoing debate about the future of the constitutional order of Ethiopia. Were it not for COVID-19, Ethiopia should have held elections this year, in which Abiy would have had the opportunity to obtain a democratic mandate. Abiy may be prime minister and enjoy the powers of that office but should consider his administration bound by norms that limit the actions of an unelected official.

To date, the federal government has rejected mediation of this crisis. Going forward, what role should national and international actors play to try and de-escalate the situation?

Stigant: For years, Ethiopia has been at the heart of establishing regional and continental mechanisms for addressing violent conflict. These include the Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism of the regional intergovernmental organization IGAD, which Ethiopia chaired for years, and the Peace and Security Council and the Panel of the Wise of the African Union (AU). As the AU’s host nation, there is arguably a special responsibility on Ethiopia to call on these indigenous African institutions not as an intrusion on sovereignty, but to model exemplary behavior for all African states.

Domestically, there have been multiple calls for a national dialogue to forge a political agreement regarding the conduct of elections and then on the constitutional order following the elections. As violence escalates in the country, it becomes both more urgent and more challenging to move a dialogue process forward. While the federal government has already announced such an effort, any initiative will need to be revisited in light of the changing circumstances. Ultimately, the credibility of any dialogue will be judged on the extent to which it includes key groups, reaches agreement on preparatory steps and confidence-building measures, and demonstrates that people can have genuine, safe, and frank conversations.

Verjee: The United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, all leading humanitarian donors, should urgently articulate the acute priority of preserving and enhancing humanitarian access to Tigray on the ground, to internally displaced persons moving to other states of Ethiopia, and to the refugees in Sudan. There is no acceptable reason for impeding this kind of access.

More broadly, as USIP’s Payton Knopf has written, international inertia on Ethiopia cannot be justified by imperfect or incomplete information. While American leverage on Ethiopia has been damaged by President Trump’s remarks on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia remains a vital strategic partner for the United States in matters of regional security, counterterrorism, migration, and peacekeeping. China is also massively invested in Ethiopia, in many deals that were reached in the days of the rule of the TPLF. Therefore, the United States, China, and others have a mutual interest in seeing a quick end to hostilities, creating the space for other forms of dialogue and discussion. While a formal international mediation process may not be necessary, honest international brokers should urgently convey to both sides, in unequivocal terms, their expectation and hope that hostilities should be halted without further delay.

Is the War in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Ending or Only Just Beginning?

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The Jamestown Foundation | Michael Horton

On November 28, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali declared victory in his government’s three- week-long war against the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) (al-Jazeera, November 28). Abiy’s declaration followed the seizure by federal troops of Mekelle, which is the capital city of Ethiopia’s Tigray region (Nazret, November 28; Ethiopian News Agency, December 3). The fight for Mekelle, a city of over a half a million, was quickly concluded as TPLF troops carried out a strategic withdrawal from the city. The TPLF, which commands at least 100,000 fighters and possesses an abundance of heavy weaponry, could have fought to retain control of what has long been their seat of power. [1] Instead, they chose to retreat to the surrounding mountains.

This strategic retreat and the TPLF’s long and storied history as skilled guerrilla fighters does not bode well for Prime Minister Abiy’s hasty declaration of victory. Until 2018, the TPLF was the dominant political power in Ethiopia and has governed much of the Tigray region since its rise to prominence in the late 1970s. The armed forces loyal to the TPLF include many of Ethiopia’s most experienced and well-trained officers, NCOs, and enlisted men and women. The TPLF, which oversaw Ethiopia’s brutally efficient internal security service during its time as the country’s preeminent political party (1991-2018), can also draw on hundreds of well-trained intelligence officers and agents.

In addition to its thousands of soldiers, the TPLF has long had access to heavy and medium weaponry dating from its time as the predominant political power. For the three decades in which it dominated Ethiopian politics, the TPLF leadership made sure that ethnic Tigrayan troops received the best weapons and training. While there was an ethnic component to these efforts, the Tigray region shares a border with Eritrea. When the TPLF controlled Ethiopia, it oversaw a costly two-year long war (1998-2000) with Eritrea in which Tigrayan officers held many of the senior commands.

If the TPLF chooses to fight a protracted guerrilla war, it is well prepared to do so. Besides an abundance of capable fighters, intelligence officers, and caches of weaponry, the mountainous Tigray region is ideal terrain for guerrilla warfare. It is also doubtful that the TPLF would feel constrained to limit its attacks to targets within the Tigray region. The TPLF has the means to conduct covert attacks on soft targets throughout Ethiopia. [2]

A War Everyone Knew was Coming

Sidelining elites, especially when they have held power for three decades, is always fraught with potential blowback. Prime Minister Abiy’s rise to power within the ruling coalition party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), was swift. When Abiy assumed the office of prime minister in April 2018, he lost no time in enacting sweeping and much needed governmental, economic, and security sector reforms. The TPLF, which was the dominant member of the EPRDF governing coalition, had maintained a firm grip on the levers of power since its members overthrew Ethiopia’s Marxist Derg regime led by Mengitsu Haile Mariam in 1991. [3] While the overthrow of the Derg improved the lives of many Ethiopians, the TPLF leadership banned opposition parties, imprisoned dissidents, limited non-state sanctioned media, and was slow to enact needed economic reforms.

In his first months in office, Abiy’s government freed thousands of political prisoners, announced that it would amend Ethiopia’s harsh anti-terrorism law, and allowed for more press freedom. Abiy also tackled constitutional reform as he sought to move away from Ethiopia’s ethnically based federal system. On the international front, Abiy signed a Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship with Eritrea in July 2018, for which he won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. In November 2019, the EPRDF ruling coalition was rolled into a political party called the Prosperity Party, led by Abiy. Notably, the TPLF refused to join the new Prosperity Party Coalition (Africa News, November 21, 2019).

The speed of Abiy’s reforms over the last three years has been nothing short of stunning. The refusal of the TPLF to join the newly formed Prosperity Party in late 2019 was a proverbial shot across the bow. In October 2020, the TPLF leadership denied the Abiy-led government’s right to rule stating that Abiy’s postponement of the August 2020 elections due to COVID-19 violated the constitution (Africa News, June 24; The Reporter May 9). The TPLF held its own regional elections in September of 2020 in the Tigray region (al-Jazeera, September 9; The East African, September 9). The central government in Addis Ababa ruled the election null and void (al-Jazeera, October 19).

While many of the Abiy government’s reforms are laudable, an undercurrent of fear runs alongside them. Many politicians within not only the TPLF, but also within other regional and ethnic political parties worry about the re-centralization of political power at the expense of regional level authority.

These fears were already pervasive in Tigray in September 2019, with many members of the TPLF and the armed forces it commands actively preparing for armed conflict with the national government. During this author’s trip to the Tigray region in September 2019, the tension in what were then TPLF controlled cites of Adwa, Mekelle and Axum was palpable. In the countryside, many communities—those that were able—were setting aside extra stores of grain to guard against shortages arising from a war that many thought imminent.

War and Legitimacy

Over the course of 2019 and into 2020, relations between the federal government and the TPLF steadily deteriorated. Open conflict began on November 4 when military forces loyal to the TPLF launched a preemptive attack on the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s (ENDF) Northern Command Headquarters near Tigray’s capital city of Mekelle (TRT World, December 3). TPLF forces rapidly overran the command headquarters and a number of minor outposts. However, ENDF units, which were prepositioned in preparation for such a conflict, launched successful counter-attacks on multiple fronts within 24 hours of the assault. Within hours ENDF mechanized units seized control of most of Route 1, a major road that connects Mekelle with points north and south, thereby cutting off the city. [4]

The outbreak of hostilities did not come as a surprise to Abiy’s government. Preparations for war by both the ENDF and the TPLF have been underway for months in the case of the former, and likely for much of the last year in the case of the latter. “Prime Minister Abiy and Debretsion Gebremichael (leader of the TPLF and president of the Tigray region) backed each other into a corner,” explained an Ethiopia-based analyst and former security official. “By moving slower with his reforms, especially with political reforms, Abiy could have achieved more and avoided war,” the same analyst explained. “Abiy put the old guard of the TPLF in a position where the only option left for them was to revert to what brought them to power in the first place: war.” [5]

The TPLF, which formed in 1975, grew from a few cells of no more than two hundred men and women into a highly capable political and military organization that would lead the effort to overthrow the Mengitsu regime in May 1991. [6] TPLF leaders combined political acumen with a sophisticated military strategy that embraced guerrilla warfare whilst also preparing and training its fighters to engage in traditional battles involving artillery and tanks. Simultaneously, the TPLF developed an extensive countrywide network of intelligence assets that helped its leaders to liaise with other groups battling the Derg and to coordinate attacks on regime targets.

Despite internecine fighting with rival groups like the Marxist-Leninist League of Tigray (MLLT) and the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), the TPLF retained and enhanced its role as Ethiopia’s preeminent rebel group. In 1988, the TPLF helped found the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the political coalition that dominated Ethiopian politics from the overthrow of Mengitsu in 1991 until its displacement in 2019 by the Prosperity Party.

The TPLF’s role within the EPRDF government was, for much of the last three decades, out of all proportion to the size of the population of Tigray. Tigrayans only make up six percent of Ethiopia’s population of 110 million. The TPLF long justified the disproportionate size of its role in government by pointing to the fact that TPLF fighters made up the largest contingent of those forces that opposed the Derg and battled Eritrea.

“Tigrayans and the TPLF view themselves as Ethiopia’s liberators from the Derg and as its defenders against outside enemies like the Eritreans,” a former member of the TPLF explained. “It is this position as Ethiopia’s liberators and defenders that the TPLF use to justify their power. They will fight to retain what they view as their hard-earned right to govern—at least in Tigray.”

Cycles of Violence: Igniting Ethiopia’s Ethnic and Inter-Religious Tinderbox

At a minimum, the TPLF wants to retain control of the Tigray region. Abiy’s proposed reforms to Ethiopia’s ethnic based federal system are viewed as a direct threat to the TPLF and to what many in the party and Tigray region see as de facto independence. These reforms which aim to weaken Ethiopia’s ethnically based federalism in favor of a pan-nationalist framework are also viewed as a threat to self-determination by other ethnic political parties. The TPLF has long enjoyed a free hand within Tigray where, under the federal system, it is charged with most administrative decisions and affairs. Additionally, the TPLF maintains control of regional police, security services, and militias.

Beyond retaining control of the Tigray region, it is unclear what the TPLF’s ultimate goal might be. The current Ethiopian Constitution, ratified in 1995, guarantees the right of self-determination—and even the right to secede—to every nation and people in Ethiopia. [7] The Abiy government’s declaration of the September 2020 Tigrayan elections as illegal and the suspension of the disbursement of federal funds to the region have both been viewed by the TPLF as attacks on regional autonomy (Ethiopia Insight, October 19).

The measures taken by the Abiy government, while possibly justified, will stoke resentment among Tigrayans. If these actions are followed by punitive military campaigns and ethnic profiling, the TPLF will have no shortage of support for what could be a long and costly war. Unfortunately, incidents of ethnic based violence by the TPLF, the Abiy government, the Ethiopian National Defense Force, and regional militias are already being reported.

TPLF-linked militias are accused of attacking day laborers who belong to the major ethnic Amhara group in the town of May Cadera with machetes. Unverified reports suggest that over 600 civilians were killed in the attack. [8] The attack follows reports of Tigrayans living outside of the Tigray region being imprisoned, fired from their jobs, and expelled from ethnically mixed communities in major cities. [9]  Some reports indicate that militias consisting of ethnic Amharas, known as the Fano, are fighting against the TPLF in southern Tigray. If such ethnic based attacks persist and worsen, the war in Tigray will spread beyond the region’s borders. The TPLF possesses the ability to launch retaliatory attacks on targets outside of Tigray and indeed, as evidenced by rocket attacks on the Eritrean capital of Asmara on November 14 and 27, outside of Ethiopia (al-Jazeera, November 29). [10] Ethnically-driven attacks by any of the warring parties could lead to spiraling violence. The Abiy government has previously accused the TPLF of stoking ethnic tensions in other parts of Ethiopia like Oromia, a regional state of the country, in a bid to destabilize Abiy’s government. [11]

Ethiopia is a tinderbox of ethnic tensions. A rebellion in Tigray and a heavy-handed response by the Abiy government could ignite tensions in other areas like the Oromia regional state, the ethnically Somali regional state in the Ogaden area, the Afar region, and the Gambella region. In the case of Oromia, inter-communal and inter-religious violence have already resulted in hundreds of dead and the internal displacement of thousands. Many of these areas, like most of Ethiopia, are underdeveloped and have derived limited benefit from Ethiopia’s recent economic boom. Most of the gains from the boom remain concentrated among Ethiopia’s elite (with Tigrayans still representing many of these elite stakeholders) in the national capital of Addis Ababa. While Ethiopia, like many African countries, has not suffered much of an impact from the coronavirus pandemic, the economic fallout from international efforts to combat the virus are taking a serious toll on the Ethiopian economy. A slowing economy and reduced international investment as well as rising food prices will further exacerbate ethnic and inter-religious tensions.

While many Ethiopians view the TPLF negatively due to its former primacy in national politics, others are sympathetic to the TPLF’s claim that it is defending regional autonomy. During the 1980s, the TPLF proved adept at building ties with other ethnically based political and rebel groups. [12] The TPLF will pursue a similar strategy if it fights a protracted war in Tigray. The leadership of the TPLF will build on its relations with other political and rebel groups in a bid to combat the Abiy government. Harsh responses by Ethiopia’s security services and military to local protests and/or armed factions will feed existing cycles of violence and start new ones.

Regional Implications

Ethiopia is the preeminent military and economic power in the Horn of Africa. Any serious instability in Ethiopia will impact neighboring countries and the broader region. The war in Tigray is already in danger of destabilizing parts of Kassala state in eastern Sudan which now hosts an estimated 50,000 refugees from Tigray. [13] The Tigray region itself was already home to over 100,000 Eritrean refugees.

The TPLF, which has twice fired rockets into Eritrea, claims that Eritrean troops are aiding Abiy’s war against them. TPLF leaders accuse the Eritrean Army of operating deep within Ethiopia’s northern border, something that U.S. officials have seemingly confirmed (al-Ahram, December 2). [14] The presence of Eritrean troops on Ethiopian territory could easily revive old and long-standing tensions over border areas.

Further afield, Ethiopia has withdrawn large numbers of troops from the ethnically Somali Ogaden to bolster its efforts in Tigray (Somali Affairs, November 3). These units police Ethiopia’s long border with Somalia and periodically operate within Somalia where they aid that country’s fight against al-Shabaab. The Ogaden is also home to the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), which has fought for the right of self-determination for the ethnic Somalis who inhabit the region. The ONLF declared a unilateral ceasefire in 2018 and recently called for all parties in the war in Tigray to negotiate. However, the ONLF, like other rebel groups active in Ethiopia, may take advantage of opportunities arising from a weakened Abiy government.

If the war persists, it has the potential to attract outside powers with an interest in aiding stability in Ethiopia or, conversely, instability. Instability can be easily encouraged through the covert provision of aid and arms to Ethiopia’s armed rebel groups. One need only look at the civil war in Yemen, where at least six outside powers are involved, to see how such events could play out in Ethiopia. Even at this early stage in the war in Tigray, there are unconfirmed reports that in addition to Eritrea, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is involved, at least at a low level, in the conflict. [15]

Outlook

Barring deft and realistic negotiations between the warring parties, the TPLF leadership, or at least factions within the leadership, may launch a long and costly guerrilla war. The TPLF has the means and knowledge to fight a war that could persist—at least on a low level—for years. While the Ethiopian military is capable and well-equipped, it will struggle to contain an insurgency in Tigray’s mountainous terrain. If the Ethiopian military engages in ethnically driven attacks on suspected supporters of the TPLF, the insurgency will only grow and spread. A lengthy war in Tigray will seep into other Ethiopian regions and may attract the benign and malevolent interest of multiple outside powers.

Notes

[1] Estimates of TPLF troop strength range as high as 250,000. It is difficult to assess actual troop strength due to the presence of a large number of informal militias loyal to the TPLF. A more accurate and conservative estimate of the number of men and women in formal and informal fighting forces loyal to the TPLF is 100,000 to 125,000.

[2] Author interview with former government official, September 2019.

[3] The Derg, meaning committee or council, was officially called the Provisional Military Government of Socialist Ethiopia.

[4] Author interview with multiple Ethiopia based analysts, December 2020.

[5] Author interview with former Ethiopia based security official, December 2020.

[6] See: John Young, Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia: The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, 1975-1991 (Cambridge University Press, 2008).

[7] See: https://ethiopianembassy.be/wp-content/uploads/Constitution-of-the-FDRE.pdf

[8] See: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/11/ethiopia-investigation-reveals-evidence-that-scores-of-civilians-were-killed-in-massacre-in-tigray-state/

[9] See: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2018/03/28/the-unenviable-situation-of-tigreans-in-ethiopia/

[10] The TPLF is known to possess BM-21 rocket systems. However, the range on these systems, even with upgrades, is not long enough for the rockets to reach Asmara from Tigrayan territory. Therefore the TPLF’s arsenal may include some other typed of system such as the Chinese manufactured PHL-03 or the Russian made BM-30. Alternatively, the TPLF may have launched the rockets from within Eritrean territory.

[11] See: https://qz.com/africa/1936138/how-ethiopias-ethnic-power-politics-led-to-tigray-conflict/

[12] See: Jenny Hammond, Fire from the Ashes: A Chronicle of the Revolution in Tigray, Ethiopia, 1975-1991 (Red Sea Press, 1998).

[13] See: https://www.unmultimedia.org/tv/unifeed/asset/2586/2586069/

[14] See: https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopia-conflict-eritrea/exclusive-u-s-thinks-eritrea-has-joined-ethiopian-war-diplomats-say-idUSKBN28I1OX

[15] The UAE has close military to military ties with the ENDF and with the Eritrean government and army. The UAE operates a base in the Eritrean town of Assab where it has based drones and aircraft for use in its war in Yemen. See: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2020/11/19/are-emirati-armed-drones-supporting-ethiopia-from-an-eritrean-air-base/

What Ethiopia’s Ethnic Unrest Means for China

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The Diplomat |  China’s massive investments in Ethiopia give it a lot to lose amid renewed sectarian violence.

Media reports have hardly mentioned what the latest episode of sectarian violence in Ethiopia could cost China. Few of the East African country’s foreign investors have more to lose, however. Officials in Beijing see Ethiopia as a hub for the Belt and Road Initiative, an ongoing project to expand China’s sphere of influence by bankrolling infrastructure throughout the Global South. China has poured money into the East African country in a bid to earn its goodwill, but ever-rising tensions between Ethiopian ethnic groups are undermining that strategy.

In early November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared war on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party of the Tigray Region. Abiy accused the TPLF – the most influential representative of Ethiopia’s Tigray minority group – of attacking an Ethiopian military base. The Ethiopian National Defense Force’s ensuing foray into the Tigray Region followed months of tensions between the TPLF-led local government and Ethiopia’s central government.

The subsequent conflict had immediate consequences for China, which raced to evacuate several hundred citizens from the Tigray Region. China Gezhouba Group Co. Ltd., a company linked to China’s government, pulled 402 workers from a project near the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle, and 187 employees of the Chinese state-owned enterprise China CAMC Engineering Co. Ltd. fled the area in vehicles. The Chinese Embassy in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa said that it assisted with the evacuations of Chinese citizens and other foreign nationals.

Abiy’s war on the TPLF has cast doubt on the future of foreign direct investment in the Tigray Region. The Chinese state-owned enterprise China Communications Construction Company Ltd. built Mekelle’s most important industrial park, and companies from Bangladesh, China, India, and the United Kingdom had expressed interest in operating there prior to Abiy’s offensive. The industrial park’s ability to attract foreign investors looks far less certain now.

Ethiopia seems to recognize the potential adverse effects that sectarian strife could have on its business relationship with China. “We know that safety and security, peace, and stability are key to foreign investors and that’s why we are trying to bring the situation back to normalcy, so that the economic and industrialization process that we have started in Ethiopia could continue without major disruption,” Teshome Toga Chanaka, the Ethiopian ambassador to China, said after announcing the successful evacuations of 600 Chinese from the Tigray Region.

Ethiopia’s military captured Mekelle from the TPLF in late November and appears to have all but defeated the group on the battlefield. Nonetheless, the prospect of a lengthy TPLF insurgency looks likely. This possibility raises the question of when Chinese companies can return to the Tigray Region. Gezhouba Group was working on what China’s state media called a $270 million “water supply project,” an enterprise that has become far riskier since November.

Even if Gezhouba Group does have to postpone or abandon that project, the Tigray Region represents just one aspect of China’s wider investment strategy in Ethiopia. By June 2020, Chinese companies had cemented plans to spend $2.7 billion in the East African country through no less than 1,500 initiatives. Ethiopia imports most of its goods from China and only exports more goods to the United States, China’s main rival in Africa. The East African country has also borrowed $16 billion from China, which amounts to half of Ethiopia’s national debt.

Though China’s wide-ranging financial ties to Ethiopia might cushion the economic fallout from the Tigrayan conflict, they could also become new vulnerabilities. To increase pressure on Abiy, the TPLF might choose to target Chinese projects well outside the Tigray Region. The TPLF’s battle with Ethiopian forces has already spilled into other areas, including the Amhara Region and even Ethiopia’s neighbor Eritrea, another key front for the Belt and Road Initiative.

In addition to the threat from the TPLF, Abiy is contending with an insurgency by the Oromo Liberation Front, which Ethiopian officials blamed for a massacre of civilians from the Amhara ethnic group in the Oromia Region in early November. If this type of sectarian violence becomes typical, China may rethink the wisdom of making further investments in Ethiopia.

China’s own ability to affect the outcomes of these conflicts remains limited. While the Belt and Road Initiative has given China a significant economic presence in Africa, Beijing had limited experience in mediating in the continent’s conflicts, in part due to its longstanding policy of “non-interference.” In a notable exception, China helped broker a fragile peace between Sudan and South Sudan, but internal ethnic conflicts – such as the ones plaguing Ethiopia – are more difficult for Beijing to handle from abroad.

In another telling example, Gezhouba Group and other Chinese companies are assisting Ethiopia with the construction of a controversial dam that contributed to a dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt. Yet American diplomats, not Chinese officials, have taken the lead in helping the two African countries resolve that disagreement.

Amid unrest in Ethiopia, Beijing may turn its attention to less problematic East African endeavors. Djibouti, which hosts a sprawling Chinese military base, looks like an obvious choice for continued investment. China has also attempted to strengthen its ties to Eritrea, where the China Shanghai Corporation for Foreign Economic and Technological Cooperation is building a major road.

Even if China chooses to explore opportunities elsewhere in East Africa, Ethiopia seems likely to top Chinese diplomats’ agenda for East Africa. China and Ethiopia have expressed their enthusiasm for expanding military ties, and officers from the Ethiopian military have even received training in China. The Tigrayan conflict and Oromo insurgency notwithstanding, Ethiopia also offers a much more promising environment for foreign direct investment than other East African countries where China has undertaken diplomatic and economic initiatives.

China’s attempt to invest in the petroleum industry in South Sudan, which has swung in and out of civil war for almost a decade, has yielded mixed results and even led to Chinese deaths. In Somalia, China has fared little better: the militant group al-Shabaab, an affiliate of al-Qaeda, struck the Chinese embassy in Mogadishu with a car bomb back in 2015.

By comparison, Ethiopia’s challenges with militancy seem far easier to manage. In 2018, Abiy concluded peace treaties with Eritrea and a rebel group in the Ethiopian region of Ogaden, ending decades-long conflicts that foreign diplomats had considered intractable. If Abiy takes the same approach to the TPLF insurgency, China appears set to reward Ethiopia with greater investment in the immediate future and stronger diplomatic and military ties down the road.

 

The Ethiopian authorities announced the defeat of TPLF

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PRETORIA | TASS | The rebels are unable to organize any resistance, the office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a statement.

The defeated structures of the rebels from theTigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) are unable to organize any resistance. This is stated in a statement released on Monday by the office of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

“The leaders of TPLF are spreading lies that its supporters are capable of creating a threat through prolonged resistance in the mountainous regions of Tigray,” the statement said.

The statement stated that the TPLF cannot be a party to the negotiations, its members will be arrested and brought to justice. “The leadership of the TPLF is trying to obtain international mediation in order to avoid responsibility and trial,” the document says. At the same time, it was emphasized that the government of Ethiopia in the very near future, in coordination with the UN, will begin to return the refugees who left Tigray during the hostilities to their homes, and will provide them with all the necessary assistance.

The federal military operation began in Tigray state on 4 November after rebels from the TPLF attacked Northern Command facilities a day earlier, killed the military who remained loyal to the central government and seized heavy weapons. The combat phase of the operation ended on November 28 with the capture of the capital of Tigraya Mekele by federal troops and the return of Addis Ababa control over all major cities and strategic facilities of the state. The Ethiopian Attorney General’s Office has issued an arrest warrant for about 70 people from the top leaders of the TPLF, they are accused of high treason.

The leaders of the TPLF left Mekele several hours before the federal troops entered the city. The head of the front, Debrezion Geberemichael, said that the fight against the federal government for Tigray’s self-determination will continue.

IPIS Briefing November 2020 – Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict

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Source: IPIS Briefing November 2020

Leader of Tigray’s forces tells Ethiopia PM to ‘stop the madness’ | 30 November 2020 | Al Jazeera

The defiant leader of Ethiopia’s rebellious Tigray region has called on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to “stop the madness” and withdraw troops from the region as he asserted that fighting continues “on every front”, two days after the government declared victory.

Ethiopia Rights Commission calls on gov’t to restore communications, basic services in Tigray; calls on independent, transparent investigation into grave rights violations | 30 November 2020 | Addis Standard

In a statement it released today, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) said that following the government’s November 28 announcement of “the completion of the final phase and cessation of the military operation in Tigray Region and the outlines of next steps listed therein,” it calls for the government to, among others, restore “telecommunications and provision of basic services,” as well as allow “access to independent and transparent investigation into conducts of grave human rights violations.”

Ethiopian military operation in Tigray is complete, prime minister says | 28 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Saturday that military operations in the restive region of Tigray are complete and federal troops control the regional capital, a major development in a three-week-old war that has shaken the Horn of Africa.

End of the road for TPLF? | 28 November 2020 | The Reporter (Ethiopia)

Surrounded by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the final assault on Mekele already underway, these look like the final days of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Even underneath the ardent defiance and unexpected claims of victory by the TPLF, there are some subtle admissions of an impending military defeat.

Ethiopia: A dispatch from West Tigray and North Amhara | 27 November 2020 | ICRC

In mid-November, after the first week of clashes in northern Ethiopia, an ICRC team traveled to North Amhara and West Tigray. In this account, Wilson Mondal, field team leader, describes what they saw.

The Situation in Ethiopia is a Unique War and the African Union Has a Legal Duty to Silence the Guns | 26 November 2020 | African Arguments

The onset of a shooting war between Ethiopia’s National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which began on 4 November 2020, was predictable. The surprise so far has been the reluctance of Ethiopia’s leadership under Nobel Peace Prize-winning Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed Ali, to accommodate appeals for de-escalation. On 25 November, the Prime Minister took to his twitter-feed to urge “the international community, to refrain from any acts of unwelcome or unlawful interference and respect the fundamental principles of non-intervention under international law.”

Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: Fears of ethnic profiling stalk conflict | 26 November 2020 | BBC

Some Tigrayans in Ethiopia have described to the BBC how they have been harassed, detained or discriminated against since fighting began in their home region on 4 November.

Why the third layer of Ethiopia’s conflict may be the most worrying | 26 November 2020 | African Arguments

The conflict between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is another tragic event for a nation reeling from ethnic-based violence and political assassinations. There have likely been thousands of casualties since the military campaign began on 4 November, and many more have had to flee their homes.

Who Benefits from the Destruction of Ethiopia? | 25 November 2020 | African Arguments

There are a lot of unanswered questions about the war in Ethiopia. Let me pose one more: who stands to gain across the region? Ten years ago the then-Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi told me, “my nightmare is that we should have an Egyptian agenda financed by Gulf money.” He didn’t foresee state-of-the-art military technology as part of that nightmare.

Q&A: Conflict in Ethiopia and International Law | 25 November 2020 | HRW

On November 4, 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appeared on state television and acknowledged that he ordered the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) to commence operations against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in response to what he described as attacks by TPLF forces on Ethiopian military bases and federal forces in the regional capital of Mekelle, and at other camps in the Tigray region.

Crisis Group links deportation of analyst to comments on Tigray | 25 November 2020 | The East African

There are concerns that Ethiopian authorities are getting uncomfortable with foreign commentators on the ongoing conflicts in the northern region of Tigray, after an analyst was deported.

Éthiopie : une nouvelle guerre de sécession ? | 25 November 2020 | IRIS

Il y a un peu plus d’un an, le Premier ministre éthiopien Abiy Ahmed recevait le prix Nobel de la paix pour avoir enfin mis fin à la guerre avec son voisin érythréen, et pour avoir démocratisé un pays qui était particulièrement répressif. Aujourd’hui le même est à la tête d’un pays qui pourrait se livrer à des massacres de masse dans la région du Tigré.

Tigray Maikadra massacre of civilians is a crime of atrocity: Ethiopian Human Rights Commission | 24 November 2020 | Addis Standard

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has found that an atrocious massacre of civilians has been committed by an informal group of Tigrayan youth known as ‘Samri’, aided and abetted by members of what was then the local administration and security establishment in Maikadra, in Tigray Region’s Western Zone, on November 9th, 2020.

As Ethiopia’s army declares daily victories, its people are being plunged into violence | 24 November 2020 | The Guardian

Stop War Crimes in Ethiopia Today | 23 November 2020 | African Arguments

Ethiopia’s prime minister Abiy Ahmed has promised military victory in Tigray. He says he will capture the capital, Mekelle, and the leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which he calls a criminal junta. If he succeeds, it will be a pyrrhic victory – prospects for peace, democracy and protection from famine in Ethiopia will be set back a generation.

Ethiopia’s other conflicts | 23 November 2020 | The New Humanitarian

The conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region has cost hundreds of lives and sent tens of thousands of people fleeing to Sudan over the past three weeks. But the region is just one of several in the country experiencing violent unrest amid a fraught political transition.

Ethiopia rejects African mediation, pushes toward rebel-held Tigray capital | 21 November 2020 | Reuters

The Ethiopian government rebuffed an African effort to mediate on Saturday, saying its troops had seized another town in their march towards the rebel-held capital of northern Tigray region.

Secret UN report reveals fears of long and bitter war in Ethiopia | 21 November 2020 | The Guardian

Ethiopian national forces are meeting heavy resistance and face a protracted “war of attrition” in the northern region of Tigray, a confidential United Nations assessment reveals.

The Tigrayan Conflict and the Laws of Humanitarian Assistance | 20 November 2020 | Opinio Juris

For over two weeks, violent and escalating clashes in the Tigray region of Ethiopia have resulted in hundreds of deaths, thousands of displaced persons and ever growing humanitarian needs in this mountainous region of northern Ethiopia.

Tigray Population Movement Information bulletin (pdf) | 20 November 2020 | nternational Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)

Since 3 November 2020, A series of escalating clashes between the Ethiopian Federal Government and the Tigray Regional Government has resulted in a growing humanitarian emergency including heavy casualties and population movements both internally and cross border. An estimated 9 million people within or near the Tigray region are at risk due to increasing confrontations.

WHO chief denies Ethiopia’s claim of backing Tigray region | 19 November 2020 | AP

The World Health Organization’s director-general on Thursday denied an allegation from his own country, Ethiopia, that he was lobbying neighboring nations to provide arms and other support to the defiant Tigray region, which has been clashing with the Ethiopian government for two weeks.

Ethiopia, led by a Nobel peace winner, is looking down the barrel of civil war | 19 November 2020 | The Guardian

The humanitarian tragedy is already stretching across borders: 27,000 Ethiopians have crossed the frontier into Sudan in two weeks, the largest influx in 20 years.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Trades His Nobel Peace Prize for Civil War | 19 November 2020 | Bloomberg

We may be long past holding laureates of the Nobel Peace Prize to its lofty standards — the cruel cynicism of Henry Kissinger and open bigotry of Aung San Suu Kyi are just two instances of honorees behaving dishonorably — but Abiy Ahmed’s belly flop from the pedestal is nonetheless remarkable. In less than a year since his uplift in Oslo, Ethiopia’s prime minister has embroiled his country in a civil war and brought the Horn of Africa to the edge of chaos.

Operational update on escalating fighting in Tigray and northern Ethiopia | 18 November 2020 | ICRC

In just two weeks, escalating fighting in Tigray and northern Ethiopia has triggered immense suffering and risks spiralling into a wider humanitarian crisis.

Digging Own Grave: The End Days of Ethiopia’s TPLF | 18 November 2020 | CounterCurrents

Previously in power for almost three decades, the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) of Ethiopia finally is approaching their end days and as we say here in the Horn of Africa, “they are digging their own grave”.

Ethiopia Tigray crisis: Abiy issues ‘ultimatum’ as civilians flee fighting | 18 November 2020 | BBC

Ethiopia’s prime minister has said a military operation against rebel forces in the northern Tigray region is entering its “final phase”. Abiy Ahmed said a three-day deadline given for Tigray’s forces to surrender had now expired.

Ethiopia pushes for Tigray capital, denies ‘ethnic bias’ | 18 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian forces pushed towards the capital of the rebel Tigray region on Wednesday, ignoring international appeals for talks to end the conflict and denying it was targeting any ethnic group.

Peace was swift in Ethiopia under Abiy. War was, too | 17 November 2020 | AP

Abiy Ahmed left Ethiopians breathless when he became the prime minister in 2018, introducing a wave of political reforms in the long-repressive country and announcing a shocking peace with enemy Eritrea.

Factbox: The forces fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict | 17 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s military is fighting battle-hardened troops in the northern Tigray region, threatening stability around the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia resists mediation as it bombs Tigray capital | 17 November 2020 | DefenceWeb

Ethiopia resisted international pressure for mediation in a war in the country’s north on Monday as its air force bombed the Tigrayan capital Mekelle, according to diplomatic and military sources.

Tigrai National Government Statement (pdf) | 17 November 2020 | Tigrai National Government | Aiga Forum

Abiy Ahmed has regionalised and internationalised the war. But it will not save him from eventual defeat. Dr. Debretsion Gebremichael, President of the Regional State of Tigray has written to more than seventy Heads of states and leaders of regional and international organizations warning the further internationalisation of the war.

Ethiopia says its troops marching on Tigrayan capital | 17 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia said its troops were marching on the capital of the Tigray region on Tuesday after a deadline for rebel forces to surrender passed in a two-week conflict shaking the Horn of Africa and alarming the world.

Factbox: Which countries have stakes in Ethiopia’s war? | 17 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian troops are battling rebellious forces from the country’s northern Tigray region. Fallout from the conflict in Africa’s second most-populous nation is already spilling over into Ethiopia’s neighbours, threatening to further destabilise a fragile region.

The Ongoing Law Enforcement Operations in Tigray: Causes and Objectives | 17 November 2020 | Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia | Ethiopian News Agency

Causes of the Ongoing Law Enforcement Operations: What makes the Law Enforcement Operation directed against the extreme elements of the TPLF clique just and necessary?

Background to the war in Ethiopia for the international media | 17 November 2020 | Committee for Voice of Reason | Aiga Forum

The illegitimate Ethiopian government has imposed a complete shutdown of communication and transportation in and out of the State of Tigray. He has now declared war and mobilized ground and air attacks against the state. This illegitimate government has controlled the local media and is disseminating false information to the international community.

Ethiopian troops ‘liberate’ key town in Tigray, claim officials | 16 November 2020 | The Guardian

Ethiopian troops have advanced further into the northern region of Tigray, seizing a key town on the road to its capital, officials in Addis Ababa have said.

Abiy Ahmed Ali’s war on Tigrai: a guide to its genesis | 16 November 2020 | Yitbarek Mesfin | Aiga Forum

Ethiopia is a very complex country made up of 80 different linguistic groups. Some international reporters are at last beginning to understand the cause of the civil unrest in Ethiopia from the start of Abiy Ahmed’s premiership in 2018. But there is still misunderstanding about the country’s political problems.

Tigray crisis viewpoint: Why Ethiopia is spiralling out of control | 15 November 2020 | BBC

Ethiopia appears to be fast approaching civil war. Fighting between forces loyal to the federal government headed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has claimed hundreds of lives and is threatening to rip the country apart.

In escalation of Ethiopia war, Tigray leader says his forces fired rockets at Eritrea | 15 November 2020 | Reuters

The leader of Ethiopia’s rebellious Tigray region confirmed on Sunday that his forces had fired rockets at the airport in Eritrea’s capital, a major escalation that raises fears of a wider war in the Horn of Africa region.

Conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Widens as Missiles Are Fired at Airports | 14 November 2020 | NYT

Two airports in a state that neighbors Tigray, where Ethiopian troops are fighting local forces, were the targets of rocket fire late on Friday, the government said, as an 11-day conflict in the region widened.

How Abiy is heralding Eritreanization of Ethiopia! | 14 November 2020 | Tedros A. Tsegay | Aiga Forum

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Abiy Ahmed is at war with his own people. He has ordered all state power at his disposal to annihilate the Tigrayan People Liberation Front (TPLF) by opening war from almost all fronts, including from Eritrea using Eritrean soldiers according to eyewitness account, who crossed the border into the Sudan.

Rockets fired at Eritrean capital from Ethiopia, diplomats say | 14 November 2020 | Reuters

At least three rockets were fired at Eritrea’s capital from Ethiopia on Saturday night, five regional diplomats said, a major escalation of a conflict pitting Ethiopian government troops against rebellious local forces in the Tigray region.

Ethiopia: leaders of Tigray region admit they attacked neighbouring Amhara | 14 November 2020 | The Guardian

Leaders of Tigray in Ethiopia’s north on Saturday claimed responsibility for rocket attacks on two airports in a nearby region and threatened to strike neighbouring Eritrea, raising concerns that the escalating conflict could spread across national borders.

Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: How the conflict could destabilise its neighbours | 14 November 2020 | BBC

The fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray state may not only have drastic implications for the future of the country but could also seriously affect its neighbours.

Ethiopia Tigray crisis: Rights commission to investigate ‘mass killings’ | 14 November 2020 | BBC

Ethiopia’s human rights commission has said it will send a team to investigate reports of mass killings of civilians in the northern Tigray state.

Ethiopian human rights commission says monitoring military operation | 14 November 2020 | New Business Ethiopia

Ethiopian Human Rights Commission Public Statement | 14 November 2020 | Facebook

In its statement the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) indicated that it has been monitoring closely and is in consultation with the relevant authorities regarding the risk of multidimensional human rights violations arising from the ongoing war in Tigray Region.

Refugee exodus to Sudan swells as war crimes feared in Ethiopia’s Tigray | 13 November 2020 | Reuters

The United Nations voiced concern on Friday that the conflict between Ethiopian government forces and insurgent northern leaders could spiral out of control and said war crimes may already have been committed.

Amnesty International’s Irresponsible Allegations | 13 November 2020 | Elias Dawit | Aiga Forum

Amnesty International, a global human rights organization, issued a statement saying “We have confirmed the massacre of a very large number of civilians, who appear to have been day labourers in no way involved in the ongoing military offensive. This is a horrific tragedy whose true extent only time will tell as communication in Tigray remains shut down,” said Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa.

Ethiopian police seeking lists of ethnic Tigrayans – U.N. Report | 13 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian police visited a U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) office in Amhara region to request a list of ethnic Tigrayan staff, according to an internal U.N. security report seen by Reuters on Friday.

Ethiopians fleeing to Sudan describe air strikes and machete killings in Tigray | 13 November 2020 | Reuters

Civilians fleeing fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region described bombing by government warplanes, shooting on the streets and killings by machete, as they joined thousands of refugees crossing into neighbouring Sudan.

Tigray: How Ethiopia reached this crisis point and how it could get out | 13 November 2020 | African Arguments

The current crisis in Tigray has not appeared from the clear blue sky. Its roots are deep in Ethiopia’s history and its outcome will dictate the country’s future. It is unlikely Ethiopia will fall apart. But a period of violence is probable and will continue until there is a further adjustment of government at the centre and a rebalancing of the relationship with the regions. Increased democratisation is one potential solution, but by no means the only outcome.

Ethiopia: Protect People as Tigray Crisis Escalates | 13 November 2020 | HRW

The Ethiopian government and Tigray regional authorities should protect people and property at risk from the fighting. Amid credible reports of increasing casualties, the authorities on both sides should facilitate access for humanitarian groups, stop interrupting essential services, and immediately restore communication services in the region.

Ethiopia claims big advance in Tigray, Amnesty reports mass killing | 12 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia: Investigation reveals evidence that scores of civilians were killed in massacre in Tigray state | 12 November 2020 | Amnesty International

Ethiopia’s military has defeated local forces in the west of Tigray state, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Thursday, accusing his foes of atrocities during a week of fighting that threatens to destabilise the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia’s Instability Threatens to Engulf Region | 11 November 2020 | VoA

In a country plagued by years of ethnic violence, analysts fear the latest fighting between government troops and regional paramilitary forces in Ethiopia could be the breaking point.

Ethiopian Human Rights Commission condemns more arrest of journalists as police keeps all incommunicado | 11 November 2020 | Addis Standard

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) confirmed that four more journalists were arrested overnight. They are Haftu Gebregzhiabher, Tsegaye Hadush, & Abreha Hagos from Ethiopian Press Agency (EPA’s) and Udi Mussa from Oromia Media Network (OMN).

Ethiopian journalists arrested as Tigray conflict worsens, refugees flee to Sudan | 11 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s human rights commission condemned the arrest of journalists as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pressed ahead with a military offensive in a northern region against local leaders defiant of his authority.

Thousands flee Ethiopia conflict, protests against Tigray’s leaders planned | 11 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian refugees were flooding into Sudan on Wednesday as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal troops battled well-armed local forces in Tigray and protests against the northern region’s leaders were planned elsewhere.

Clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray region force thousands to flee to Sudan | 11 November 2020 | UNHCR

UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, is working with authorities in Sudan to provide lifesaving assistance to more than 7,000 refugees from Ethiopia, who have fled across the border in the past two days.

Experts react: Understanding the conflict in Tigray | 11 November 2020 | Atlantic Council

On November 4, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a military offensive against forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which is the governing authority of the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray. Coming after months of rising tensions between the TPLF and the Abiy administration, the latest military action was precipitated by an alleged surprise night-time assault by the TPLF on a major Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) base in Tigray that resulted in the killing of non-Tigrayan soldiers and the attempted looting of heavy artillery and weapons.

Police rearrest Addis Standard’s editor | 10 November 2020 | Addis Standard

The police on duty at Addis Abeba police station have this afternoon rearrested Medihane Ekubamichael, product editor at Addis Standard publication. Medihane was first detained on Saturday November 07 by members of the city’s police and take to undisclosed location.

Police detain Addis Standard’s editor, accuse him of attempt to dismantle the constitution | 9 November 2020 | Addis Standard

Members of Addis Abeba and federal police officer have on Saturday arrested Medihane Ekubamichael, product editor at Addis Standard publication. Jakenn Publishing PLC, the publishers of Addis Standard publication, confirmed that Medihane was arrested and initially taken to undisclosed location on Saturday November 07, from his house in Addis Abeba.

Concern of outright war in Ethiopia grows as PM presses military offensive | 9 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s prime minister stepped up a military offensive in the northern region of Tigray on Sunday with air strikes as part of what he called a “law enforcement operation”, increasing fears of outright civil war in Africa’s second-most populous country.

Violence worsens in Ethiopia as hundreds reported to have died in conflict | 9 November 2020 | Businesslive

An escalating conflict in Ethiopia’s restive Tigray region has killed hundreds of people, sources on the government’s side said, even as the prime minister sought on Monday to reassure the world his nation was not sliding into civil war.

Conflict in Ethiopia extends the Greater Middle East’s arc of crisis | 7 November 2020 | ModernDiplomacy

Ethiopia, an African darling of the international community, is sliding towards civil war as the coronavirus pandemic hardens ethnic fault lines. The consequences of prolonged hostilities could echo across East Africa, the Middle East and Europe.

Ethiopia’s PM seeks to regain control over restive Tigray region | 7 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sought to re-establish authority over the northern Tigray region on Saturday, a day after launching air strikes amid reports that Tigrayan forces had seized control of federal military sites and weapons.

Timeline: Key events leading to Ethiopia’s crisis in Tigray | 6 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia is mobilising troops from around the country and sending them to the northern Tigray region to fight a powerful ethnic faction that led the ruling coalition for decades.

Ethiopia’s Abiy vows to disarm ‘fugitives from justice’ in Tigray campaign | 6 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s air force bombed arms depots and destroyed military hardware in the northern Tigray region on Friday, the prime minister said, escalating a war he launched this week against his former ruling coalition allies.

Ethiopia mobilises for war in northern region | 6 November 2020 | DefenceWeb

Ethiopia mobilised for war in the northern Tigray region on Thursday, dashing international hopes of averting a conflict between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and the powerful ethnic faction that led the ruling coalition for decades.

U.N. chief ‘deeply alarmed’ by armed clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray | 6 November 2020 | Reuters

The head of the United Nations said he was deeply alarmed by fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, where federal troops have been exchanging fire with the powerful ethnic faction that led the ruling coalition for decades.

Ethiopia’s PM Abiy defends military operations, others call it war | 6 November 2020 | RFI

The “large-scale law enforcement operation” has “clear, limited and achievable objectives: to restore the rule of law and the constitutional order,” he said on Friday, calling out the Tigray region’s Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leadership as “fugitives from justice … using the civilian population as human shields.”

As more troops mobilized to northern Ethiopia to join “aimless war” PM Abiy assures operations have “clear, limited & achievable objectives” | 6 November 2020 | Addis Standard

As more troops are being mobilized to join the offensive against TPLF’s regional special forces, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said military operations by federal defense forces underway in Northern Ethiopia have “clear, limited & achievable objectives.”

Ethiopia’s Premier Orders Troops Into Once-powerful Tigray Region in Major Escalation | 4 November 2020 | VoA

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered the military to deploy to the Tigray region on Wednesday after accusing the government there of attacking federal troops, a major escalation of a row between the premier and the once-powerful region.

A statement from Jakenn Publishing PLC regarding the blockage of all means of communication in Tigray Regional State | 4 November 2020 | Addis Standard

Jakenn Publishing PLC, the publisher of Addis Standard online magazine expresses its deep regret that due to the blockage of internet, mobile and landline communications, its journalists are unable to provide an inclusive news on the ongoing military engagement between forces of the federal army and Tigray regional state.

National defense forces given order to “start military offensive against TPLF: PM Abiy Ahmed | 3 November 2020 | EthioExplorer

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has just announced that the National Defense Forces (ENDF), led by a command post, is given order to start military offensive against TPLF in Tigray regional state.

Political Parties Commend HPR Decision to Lift Immunity of 39 Members | 3 November 2020 | Ethiopian News Agency

Representatives of political parties have commended the resolution to lift the immunity of some members of the House of People’s and Representatives (HPR) today.

Army Made a Sharp Riposte against Defiant TPLF Attack | 2 November 2020 | Ethiopian News Agency

Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has announced on Wednesday that it has successfully contained the attack from the defiance Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and advanced to counteract in a bid to protect the unity of the country.

“Crisis staring” Tigray, Federal governments “in the eye” as army is caught in the mix, relations plummet to new low | 31 October 2020 | Addis Standard

Tensions between the federal and the Tigray Regional State governments have picked up a new twist following a decision by the later to return Brigadier General Jamal Mohammed from Mekelle Alula Abanega Airport.

Splitting Southern Nations region into four can promote peace | 10 October 2020 | Ethiopia Insight

For more than two decades, the question of statehood formation has been raised by identiy-based zones in the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ Regional State (SNNPRS).

House of Federation speaker says establishing transitional government, dispatching federal security forces in Tigray among constitutional options | 2 October 2020 | Addis Standard

Adem Farah, Speaker of the House of Federation (HoF) says there are enough constitutional means to take measures against those endangering the constitution.

OFC calls for “genuine national dialogue” | 30 September 2020 | Oromo Federalist Congress | Addis Standard

“Ethiopia has entered a new year with all its heavy political burdens – with both hope and despair. And without a shadow of doubt, the hoped-for democratic transition is disturbingly failing,” said the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) in a statement.

Tigray region says it will defy federal laws enacted as of Oct. 05; EDP calls for transitional gov’t, inclusive dialogue & reconciliation | 29 September 2020 | Addis Standard

In an interview aired on Tigray Mass Media Agency, Asmelash Wolde Sellassie, executive member of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the governing party of Tigray regional state, said the region will not comply with laws, directives, and regulations, among others, to be enacted by the federal government after its current term in office came to an end on October 05/2020.

Ethiopia files terrorism charges against leading opposition activist | 19 September 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia has filed terrorism charges against a prominent media mogul and opposition politician from the Oromo ethnic group, Jawar Mohammed, the attorney general’s office said on Saturday.

Regional party wins vote in Ethiopia’s Tigray, challenging federal government | 11 September 2020 | Reuters

The regional ruling party has won a landslide election victory in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, officials said on Friday, as a confrontation looms with national authorities who have branded the vote illegal.

Ethiopia bars journalists from flying to Tigray regional vote, passengers say | 7 September 2020 | Reuters

At least 12 people, including four journalists and a senior think tank analyst, were barred on Monday from flying to Tigray, four of the passengers said, after Ethiopian security officials said the region’s elections later this week were illegal.

Ethiopia’s upper house rules Tigray regional vote unconstitutional | 5 September 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s upper house ruled on Saturday that plans by the Tigray region to hold an election on Sept. 9 were unconstitutional, setting up a potential clash between the central government and a powerful ethnic party.

Ethiopia’s Tigray region to holds poll, defying federal government | 4 September 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region will head to the polls on Wednesday in defiance of the federal government, the latest challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from a slew of regional leaders flexing their muscles ahead of next year’s national elections.

Ethiopia’s Tigray region eyes election in challenge to national unity | 5 May 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s Tigray region plans to hold elections, its main party said, setting it on a collision course with the federal government and testing the country’s fragile unity.

Ethiopia postpones August election due to coronavirus | 31 March 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia has postponed parliamentary elections scheduled for August due to the coronavirus outbreak, the electoral board said on Tuesday, a move endorsed by some key opposition parties.

Ethiopia passes gun control law to tackle surge in violence | 9 January 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s parliament passed legislation on Thursday aimed at curbing gun ownership after a surge in regional ethnic violence blamed on a proliferation of small arms in private hands.

Voting for Internal Secession – Federalism and ethnicity in Ethiopia | 28 November 2019 | Verfassungsblog

20 November 2019 might go down in history as one of the turning points for federalism in Ethiopia. It was the day on which the unparalleled clause of the Ethiopian Constitution, which provides ethnic communities with the right to establish their own state (i.e. subnational unit), was put into practice. Finally, after clamoring for their own state for years, the Sidama, the fifth largest ethnic group in the country, were allowed to have their day in a referendum.

Ethiopia’s ruling coalition agrees to form single party ahead of 2020 vote | 21 November 2019 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s ruling coalition on Thursday approved the merger of three of its four ethnic-based parties into a single national one ahead of the 2020 elections, part of the prime minister’s efforts to unite the country, but one of the parties boycotted the meeting and vote.

Violence during Ethiopian protests was ethnically tinged, say eyewitnesses | 26 October 2019 | Reuters

Much of the fighting seen during protests in Ethiopia this week was ethnically tinged, eyewitnesses said on Saturday, describing attacks by young men from the Oromo ethnic group against people from other ethnic groups.

Abiy Ahmed and the struggle to keep Ethiopia together | 11 October 2019 | The Africa Report

Ethiopia’s ongoing liberalisation and ethnic federalism are creating a combustible situation as ethnic groups seek more autonomy on economic, political and security matters.

Ethiopia to hold autonomy referendum for ethnic Sidama in November | 29 August 2019 | Reuters

Ethiopia on Thursday granted its ethnic Sidama community a referendum in November on self-determination, with a view to creating the country’s 10th autonomous region, Fana news agency reported.

Ethiopia’s opposition parties criticize election law changes | 24 August 2019 | Reuters

Ethiopian lawmakers on Saturday revised election laws to pave the way for polls next year, but some opposition parties said the changes would make it more difficult for them to challenge the ruling coalition.

Regional power grab attempt causes rare discord in Ethiopia coalition | 12 July 2019 | Reuters

A failed regional coup in Ethiopia has exposed rare divisions in the alliance that has dominated the country for three decades, with two of the four ethnic parties that form the ruling coalition trading insults in a public feud.

Abiy Ahmed’s reforms in Ethiopia lift the lid on ethnic tensions | 29 June 2019 | BBC

After launching the most ambitious reforms in his country’s history Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is under threat. The murder of his army chief of staff amid an alleged coup attempt in the Amhara region has highlighted the vulnerability of the reform process. The BBC’s Africa Editor, Fergal Keane, analyses the challenge facing the continent’s youngest leader.

Nearly 250 arrested in Ethiopia after foiled coup | 27 June 1019 | Reuters

Nearly 250 people have been arrested in Ethiopia’s capital and the main city in its Amhara region since a coup attempt was foiled, state TV reported on Thursday.

Ethiopia’s ethnic militias in the spotlight after failed coup | 24 June 1019 | Reuters

A foiled coup in the Ethiopian state of Amhara that left five senior officials dead, including the army’s chief of staff, has thrust ethnic militias in one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies into the spotlight.

Ethiopia opposition see dangers if 2020 vote delayed | 21 June 1019 | Reuters

Opposition politicians in Ethiopia are warning against a delay to national elections due in 2020 that would be the first under reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed but are under threat from an explosion of regional ethnic rivalries.

Ethiopia’s Ethnic Federalism: Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution | 23 January 2019 | Verfassungsblog

Lenin once famously said that ‘[t]here are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen’. This aptly describes the dizzying political sea change that Ethiopia has been going through since 2 April 2018, the day that saw the election of Abiy Ahmed as the Prime Minister. Since then, the country has witnessed political reforms that, if sustained, will soon herald a new era of democratization and human rights.

‘Nobody will kneel’: Tigrayans defiant as Ethiopian leader cracks down | 16 December 2018 | Reuters

In the birthplace of the armed struggle that propelled Ethiopia’s ruling coalition to power 27 years ago, there is growing anger as the country’s new prime minister stages a crackdown on the region’s once-powerful leaders.

Secessionism, Federalism and Constitutionalism in Ethiopia | 15 August 2018 | Verfassungsblog

On the morning of 4 August 2018, troops were seen taking over key positions in Jijiga, a capital city of the State of Somali, one of the constituent units of the Ethiopian federation. Heavily armed military vehicles were stationed outside the state parliament, the offices of state government and the state TV station. It was not an invasion by a foreign force. It was a federal intervention.

‘These changes are unprecedented’: how Abiy is upending Ethiopian politics | 8 July 2018 | The Guardian

Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia, has accelerated a radical reform programme that is overturning politics in the vast, strategically significant African country.

Abiy Ahmed sworn in as Ethiopia’s prime minister | 2 April 2018 | al Jazeera

Ethiopia’s parliament has elected Abiy Ahmed as the new prime minister, a week after the ruling coalition nominated him to succeed Hailemariam Desalegn. Abiy was sworn in on Monday shortly after his election to become Africa’s second-most populous country’s 16th prime minister and the first Oromo to hold Ethiopia’s top seat.