Mysterious Wheat Deals Complicate Hunger Fight in Ethiopia

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Source: Bloomberg | Samuel Gebre, Agnieszka de Sousa and Simon Marks

Nation scrapped import tenders for grain after no progress
Ethiopia is seeking outside assistance to help feed its people

Back in November, Ethiopia unveiled two deals to buy deeply discounted wheat from suppliers that seasoned traders had never heard of. A website named for one of the companies listed a German address that didn’t exist and appeared to use stock photos of models.

Two months on, it remains a mystery who was behind the deals or what their motivation was, especially as Ethiopia says it hasn’t lost any money. One thing is clear though: no wheat has been delivered. The government has now canceled the tenders and plans to start over.

It’s an embarrassing blunder that could have ramifications for a country in desperate need of food. Ethiopia relies on more than 1 million tons of wheat imports a year to feed its people; the two canceled tenders together represented 600,000 tons. Global wheat prices have risen since the deals were initially awarded, meaning it will probably have to pay more now.

Ethiopia’s grain-tender process has for years been dogged by cancellations and corruption allegations, as well as putting strain on much-needed foreign-exchange reserves. The nation had already postponed or canceled tenders over the course of last year. That’s especially a problem for a country where some 11 million people were seen in need of food aid by the end of last year.

Ethiopia’s farming industry last year suffered from the worst desert-locust infestations in decades as well as the Covid-19 pandemic. At the same time, conflict in parts of the country displaced tens of thousands of people, adding to widespread food shortages.

“There is no doubt that there is a major food security crisis,” said Tedd George, founder at Kleos Advisory, a U.K.-based adviser on African markets. “Ethiopia has lost a number of tenders beforehand. It may have been that they have had difficulty finding more established, more respected traders to provide wheat.”

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance this week said that while the two tenders were canceled, the nation has been able to meet its needs through other purchases and domestic supply, though couldn’t comment further.

Major grain merchants have largely shunned Ethiopia’s tenders due to unfavorable terms such as requiring offers to be valid for 30 days, exposing traders to losses should prices change. However, there are a handful of smaller suppliers that regularly participate in the tenders.

The two tenders awarded in November were for the purchase of 400,000 tons from Rosentreter Global Food Trading and 200,000 tons from Martina Mertens, at a combined value of about $117 million. However, the companies were unknown to nine experienced international grain traders surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Public Procurement and Property Disposal Service this month said it canceled the tenders because the companies didn’t follow through with the deals and plans to reissue them. Since the tenders were awarded in early November, benchmark futures have climbed about 10% to $6.72 a bushel in Chicago.

When asked about Rosentreter’s authenticity in November, PPPDS Director-General Tsewaye Muluneh said that while it was the first time the new company had participated in tenders, it had passed the PPPDS’s checks.

Two Companies

There are reasons to question the firms’ legitimacy. Rosentreter and Martina Mertens offered wheat much cheaper than other tender participants. The German address that was stated on a website for Rosentreter doesn’t exist, phone numbers wouldn’t connect, an email failed to deliver and personal biographies used what seems are stock photos of models.

Rosentreter’s website no longer works, and Bloomberg couldn’t identify one, or locate contact details, for Martina Mertens.

It’s not clear who would stand to benefit from the failed tenders. Tsewaye said Ethiopia hasn’t lost any money in the two tenders, with the companies even putting up a bond payment to participate. She wouldn’t elaborate further.

The Ministry of Finance didn’t respond to phone calls, emails and text messages over the past two months seeking comment on the authenticity of the companies involved and whether the awards were a blunder.

The government held a monopoly on wheat purchases until early last year when, as part of new state reforms, it started allowing some private companies to import as long as they use their own foreign currency. There’s no public list of who is eligible to import.

It seems the country still needs more food. The Catholic Relief Services said Ethiopia has asked it for assistance, with distribution already underway. The World Food Programme also confirmed it’s assisting the government in procuring wheat.

Ethiopia’s National Disaster Risk Management Commission said 11.1 million people needed food aid last year and that it’s working on figures for 2021. The country is currently buying about 700,000 tons of wheat and plans to purchase another 300,000 tons later this year, said Mitiku Kassa, head of the agency.

“It is inevitable they are going to need support from the World Food Programme,” Kleos Advisory’s George said. “At least this will be wheat, not a tender someone will cancel.”

 

— With assistance by Megan Durisin

Regjeringsstyrker drepte tidligere utenriksminister

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VG: Etiopias tidligere utenriksminister Seyoum Mesfin er drept i et sammenstøt med regjeringsstyrker, ifølge myndighetene i landet.

Sammenstøtet fant sted i Tigray-regionen, der regjeringsstyrkene gjennomførte en omfattende offensiv mot Tigray-folkets frigjøringsfront (TPLF) i november i fjor.

I tillegg til Mesfin ble også to andre tidligere toppolitikere drept, ifølge en uttalelse fra regjeringen. Abay Tsehaye var tidligere minister, og Asmelash Woldeselassie hadde tidligere en viktig posisjon i nasjonalforsamlingen.

Alle tre hadde nå viktige roller i TPLF, ifølge regjeringen. De ble angivelig drept da de nektet å overgi seg og det oppsto en skuddveksling mellom deres egne sikkerhetsfolk og regjeringsstyrker.

Mesfin var Etiopias utenriksminister i nesten tjue år. Han fungerte som fredsmegler i Sør-Sudan, der også norske myndigheter spilte en viktig rolle.

(NTB/AFP)

In Memoriam: Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopian Peacemaker and Patriot

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Source: World Peace Foundations | Alex de Waal

Seyoum Mesfin, who was killed in Tigray this week at the age of 71, was Ethiopia’s longest-serving foreign minister. His untimely death robs Ethiopia of a man who exemplified the country’s tradition of enlightened and progressive patriotism. Under other circumstances we would expect a national day of mourning and a state funeral, including national and international recognition of Seyoum’s exceptional contribution to the norms, principles and practices of peace in Africa.

As a radical student activist, Seyoum was one of the founders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in 1975. Like many of his generation, he was an avid debater of different revolutionary ideas, and was one of the first to articulate the agenda of self-determination for the diverse nations, nationalities and peoples within the Ethiopian empire. He was appointed as head of foreign relations for the TPLF and became well-known internationally as the face of the Tigrayan struggle. I first met him in 1988, travelling within the TPLF-held areas of the country, and recall well the vigorous discussions we had about the challenges of the revolution and what should be their agenda when they took power. One of the things that most struck me about Seyoum was his lack of any personal bitterness towards the members of the military regime that was, at that time, waging unlimited war against the people of Tigray. The leaders of the Dergue, he assured me, would face justice.

Three years later, when he was in the Foreign Minister’s office in Addis Ababa as a leader of the transitional EPRDF government, he reminded me of this promise, and sent me to visit the Dergue leaders. They were all detained in a university dormitory, with just two guards on the gate—to deter angry citizens from breaking in and attacking them. General Legesse Asfaw, who had ordered the most murderous aerial assault of the war when fighter jets bombed the market town of Hausien and killed about 1800 civilians, was kept in a special room for his own protection. The TPLF could easily have executed him. But for Seyoum and his comrades, ‘revolutionary justice’ meant a transformation in the practice of killing your defeated enemies.

The dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam had executed 61 senior officials of the overthrown imperial government in November 1974 in his seizure of power. Among them was Seyoum’s predecessor in the foreign ministry, Aklilu Habtewold, shot dead within earshot of the headquarters of the Organisation of African Unity, an institution he had done so much to create—without any international condemnation. The EPRDF would not follow that path of arbitrary revenge: instead, officials of the military regime were to be brought to court and charged according to due process of law. By a quirk of the Ethiopian Penal Code, the definition of genocide under domestic law included attempts to eliminate not just national, ethnical, racial or religious groups, but political groups as well, and so it was possible to convict (in absentia) Mengistu for acts of genocide for crimes perpetrated during the ‘Red Terror’ of 1977-78.

Mengistu himself fled to Zimbabwe with his family. When his children’s passports expired, the Ethiopian ambassador in Harare asked for advice. Seyoum responded without hesitation. He said that the sins of the father should not be visited on the children: they were Ethiopians entitled to passports and should be issued with them at once.

In the same spirit, Foreign Minister Seyoum was a driving force behind the setting up of the International Panel of Eminent Personalities to investigate the genocide in Rwanda in 1994. The IPEP report was the first formulation of the doctrine of ‘non-indifference’: the responsibility of countries to intervene to prevent genocide. The United Nations later reconfigured this as the ‘Responsibility to Protect.’ Had he been a less modest man, Seyoum might have clamoured for international prizes to reflect his contribution. Instead, he invested his efforts in making sure that African nations adopted the norm and incorporated it into the Constitutive Act of the African Union.

Another example of Seyoum’s quietly principled diplomacy is the Declaration of Principles for the resolution of the conflict in Sudan. In 1993-94, when the north-east African regional grouping the InterGovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) was mandated with taking forward the mediation of Sudan’s war, Seyoum convened the IGAD foreign ministers and made the case that their efforts needed to be guided by principles that would ensure a just and lasting peace. Among them he identified the right of southern Sudanese to self-determination, should the Sudanese government fail to respect the ethnic diversity and democratic rights of all Sudanese. This was a radical innovation: never before had an African intergovernmental organization formally recognized the right to self-determination of an oppressed minority in a sovereign country. It is no exaggeration to say that the IGAD Declaration of Principles, penned by Seyoum in his office in Addis Ababa, surmounted the single biggest legal and political hurdle in the southern Sudanese road to independence.

Indeed, during his nineteen years in office, Seyoum presided over the rehabilitation of Ethiopia’s international standing. From being a pariah under the Dergue, Ethiopia became widely respected. Ethiopia succeeded in making friends with the United States, Europe and China, with Africa and with the Middle East. Long-running rivalry with Sudan was peaceably resolved. The countries that Ethiopia saw as long-term rivals and potential threats—Egypt and the Gulf States—were kept at bay. Under Seyoum’s guiding hand, Ethiopia became admired as Africa’s biggest contributor to peace and security, a reliable contributor of high-quality troops to peacekeeping operations, and a partner in conflict resolution.

In some ways, Seyoum returned Ethiopia’s foreign policy to the traditions of Emperor Haile Selassie: seeking to be on good terms with all but dependent on none, using soft power to build alliances that allowed the country to chart a path all of its own. In his ministry, he retained the most professional and capable officials from the previous government, arguing that the country needed both their skills and also respect for an institution of state. Like Aklilu bringing Ethiopia’s foreign policy skills to bear on building the OAU, Seyoum was a discreet but influential architect of the creation of the African Union.

The big exception to the ‘friendship with all’ strategy was Eritrea, and Seyoum resisted calls for Ethiopia to seek a military solution to the dispute, opting instead for containing and isolating Eritrea in the hope that time would bring about an end to ruthless regime of President Isseyas Afewerki. I recall Seyoum lamenting that the most progressive and democratically-minded members of the Eritrean political elite—such as his former counterparts in the Eritrean foreign ministry, Petros Solomon and Haile ‘Duru’ Woldensae, had been first sidelined and then destroyed. Like Mengistu during the darkest days of the Red Terror, Isseyas’s approach to any political challenge was total elimination, and that included his closest comrades in arms, consigned to incommunicado imprisonment without charge, trial or contact with even their closest families. Isseyas made his move on September 18, 2001, knowing that world attention was elsewhere and he could act without international scrutiny. ‘Duru’ is feared to have died; Petros’s fate, along with so many others, isn’t known. Seyoum mourned his colleagues’ demise. And he insisted that the culture of systematic elite murder—politicide, or genocide of political groups—was something that should never be allowed to re-enter Ethiopia.

After retiring as foreign minister, Seyoum served as ambassador to China and as chief mediator for the peace talks in the conflict in South Sudan. The civil war erupted in South Sudan on December 13, 2013 and within a week, a delegation of foreign ministers of IGAD countries was in Juba insisting that the fighting should cease and a political solution should be found. Overruling the predictable objections that it was an internal affair and the opposition were traitors, IGAD and the African Union put the welfare of the country above the anger and ambition of South Sudan’s warring politicians. Seyoum was the mediator: patient and fair, continually frustrated by the mercenary callousness of his interlocutors.

As the EPRDF began the process of liberalization in Ethiopia three years ago, leading to the selection of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister, Seyoum was prominent among a small group of Tigrayans who stayed on within the highest levels of government, trying to steer the transition towards consensus. He remained in a post as advisor within the Prime Minister’s Office until late 2019, though the extent to which the PM called upon his experience and wisdom isn’t at all clear. Certainly, Abiy’s readiness to partner with autocratic Eritrea disturbed him.

As a person, Seyoum was always warm and accessible, and ready to talk without regard for rank or protocol. He had a well-deserved reputation for treating all his staff with care and respect, for keeping his door open.

Seyoum became less active in politics, planning to spend more time reflecting on the lessons learned from his unparalleled career, and building up the think tank, the Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation that he founded. His health also suffered: he had a serious back problem and had difficulty walking more than short distances.

The circumstances of Seyoum’s killing aren’t clear. The Ethiopian government is not a reliable source of information. Eritrea—which may well have carried out the assassinations—is remaining silent. The official report that Seyoum and his colleagues ‘refused to surrender’ is opaque. The other two elderly Tigrayans killed in the same incident were Abay Tsehaye, who just had heart surgery, and Asmelash Woldeselassie, who is blind.

Seyoum is survived by his wife and sons. His wife and one son were recently arrested and are now out on bail.

The circumstances of the killing of Seyoum, Abay and Asmelash warrant an immediate high-level international investigation. It is hard to see how these three men posed a military threat. Their killing is part of a pattern of systematic targeting of Tigrayans, which goes beyond removing their political influence in Ethiopia to the wholesale elimination of a political class representing an ethnic or national group. It is consistent with the politics of genocide practiced by Mengistu Haile Mariam and his generals and by Isseyas Afewerki inside Eritrea and in his ongoing military operations inside Tigray today.

Seyoum deserved to end his days in comfortable retirement with all the respect due to a statesman and patriot. His killing should be a red line. The world should not repeat the error of its silence over the extra-judicial execution of his predecessor Aklilu. The killing must stop today.

 

Alex de Waal is the Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Considered one of the foremost experts on Sudan and the Horn of Africa, his scholarly work and practice have also probed humanitarian crisis and response, human rights, HIV/AIDS and governance in Africa, and conflict and peace-building.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 56 – 15 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 14 January)

● Asena TV shows images of four to six explosions outside the municipality offices in the centre of Addis Ababa, which were followed with a few shots.

● New Eritrean troops have entered Mekelle, roaming the city along with many intelligence agents.

● Tigray news reports that Al Shebaab fighters are entering western regions of Ethiopia and may even be controlling parts of the Somali region of Ethiopia.

● A video emerged of the massacre at the Aksum Church of Maryam Zion, where at least 750 civilians were allegedly killed by Eritrean troops. The video shows a body taken away by a priest and shows the I.D. cart found on the body. EEPA reported that the massacre took place on 15 Dec., that civilians were hiding in the church and had been ordered out onto the square, before being executed.

● A second video has emerged of the Maryam Zion Church in Aksum, which was filmed on 29th November. The commentator states that the square should have been full on the eve of the annual Maryam Zion celebration, but it is showing an empty square without any people.

● In this video it is explained that the square is empty because Eritrean soldiers had arrived on the 27th Nov. evening in vehicles with an Eritrean military number plate (with red slash). Regional Tigray troops and youth tried to defend the town but could not hold it.

● The video comments that subsequently, the soldiers were shooting anyone they found on the road including those who tried to open shops in the early morning of 28 Nov. ENDF had entered Aksum around the 22nd November, but they did not stop the shooting, and Eritrean soldiers were killing hundreds of people and looting properties.

● The Catholic Bishop of Adigrat (Tigray), Abune Tesfaselassie Medhin, sent an appeal (dated 5 Jan 2021) stating that the people, including Eritrean refugees, have “run out of food items, basic life-saving medicines, water, etc., and have no access to essential services.”

● The Bishop states “millions” of people have been displaced, most of them women and children without food and water to escape from “heavy artillery and air-strikes.” The Bishop calls on humanitarian assistance to respond to the “war-induced” humanitarian crisis in Tigray. Many of the areas have still not been reached by aid organisations.

● In the last days, there has been fighting again around the Hitsats camp for Eritrean refugees. Eritrean soldiers killed many Eritrean refugees and took some of them to Eritrea. Some refugees escaped to the Adi Harush camp. A woman testified that in the flight from Hitsats to Adi Harush, 3 persons died.

● Eritrean refugees in Tigray are taken to Shiraro, others to Badme. There are at least 10.000 refugees, and they are slowly taken to Eritrea. What happens with them in Eritrea, is not known.

● The refugees held in Shiraro and Badme are held by Eritrean soldiers. They have no food, and they are forced to contact their family to send money. However, the refugees are dependent on the Eritrean soldiers to be able to phone relatives.

●The refugees held by Eritrean troops are using mobile phones from the Eritrean soldiers to contact relatives. These are Eritrean mobile phones. The soldiers are making a business out of this, so that they get paid for this ‘service’. Soldiers take a part of this money, and in some cases all of it.

● Mulu Nega, the chief of the Interim government in Tigray has cancelled a meeting with Mekelle University staff due to emergency operations in the area today.

● It is reported that banks are the first target to be looted by Eritrean soldiers.

● The US embassy warns against ‘strong-armed’ robberies of hiking American citizens in Entoto and Yeka parks and Guellele Botanical gardens. The hikers were surrounded by multiple armed men.

● US embassy sets a negative travel advise to

  1. Border area with Somalia due to potential for terrorism, kidnapping, and landmines;
  2. Border areas with Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Eritrea due to crime, armed conflict, and civil unrest;
  3. Somali Regional State due to potential for terrorism;
  4.  Ethiopia’s Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region (SNNPR) due to civil unrest;
  5. The East Hararge region and the Guji zone of Oromia State due to armed conflict and civil unrest;
  6. Benishangul Gumuz and the western part of Oromia State due to armed conflict and civil unrest.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 14 January)

● UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Filippo Grandi appeals to the Ethiopian government to give unimpeded access to Tigray “in whatever way possible” and that “all options should be explored” to safely provide desperately needed assistance.

● Grandi stated his teams were distressed by what they saw in Tigray: “Equally distressing to UNHCR teams on the ground has been our inability to assist thousands of Eritrean refugees who continue to flee the camps in search of safety and support. Refugees arriving on foot to Shire town in Tigray are emaciated, begging for aid that is not available. Refugees who reached Addis Ababa are being returned to Tigray, some against their will.” (Ep/013/Em)

● The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (GCRP) releases an atrocity alert delivering a sobering report on the situation in Tigray, Ethiopia, backed up with satellite imagery.

● GCRP Director, Simon Adams, said that, Ethiopia should “guarantee unfettered humanitarian access to all vulnerable populations in Tigray and ensure their full protection.”

● Simon Adams called on states with significant ties to Ethiopia to “withhold all military support to the government until independent investigations take place regarding the alleged destruction of refugee camps and other potential war crimes.”

● Adams states that “The international community has to increase the political cost of ongoing human rights violations in Tigray.”

● Ethiopian Chief of Staff, General Birhanu Jula, received the highest military medal from Djibouti Army Chief of Staff, General Zekaria Shiek, ordered by Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh for his “effective military leadership in the completed law enforcement operation in Tigray and his great contribution to peace and stability in the country and the region as well”.

● Alex Dewaal from the World Peace Foundation writes in an obituary of Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s longest-serving foreign minister who was killed in Tigray at the age of 71: “Under Seyoum’s guiding hand, Ethiopia became admired as Africa’s biggest contributor to peace and security, a reliable contributor of high-quality troops to peacekeeping operations, and a partner in conflict resolution.”

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Trump’s Withdrawal From Somalia Is a Security Threat. Biden Should Reverse It

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Source: Foreign Policy | Abdi Yusuf

U.S. troops are scheduled to leave the country on Jan. 15, opening the door for al-Shabab terrorists to step up their attacks. The new administration should recommit to protecting the country.

Years of hard-fought gains to stabilize Somalia and defeat the al-Shabab terrorist group are now endangered by President Donald Trump’s threat to withdraw U.S. forces. Not unlike the fragile gains the United States achieved defeating the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, Somalia’s future rests on sound judgment and Washington’s continued engagement. Without persistent pressure from U.S. forces, al-Shabab’s leaders will be able to emerge from hiding, reorganize, and conduct attacks not just in Somalia but across the region, including against key U.S. allies such as Ethiopia and Kenya. However, there’s still time to change course. The current administration’s Jan. 15 deadline to withdraw U.S. troops from Somalia is rapidly approaching.

In all likelihood, the Trump administration will not reverse course on any major policy decision in the lead-up to President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, and the withdrawal will continue as planned. If this is indeed the case, Biden must move swiftly after inauguration to redeploy troops back to their original bases in Somalia.

Biden must move swiftly after inauguration to redeploy troops back to their original bases in Somalia.

Not doing so risks Somalia falling back into the hands of al-Shabab and endangers the lives of not only Somalia’s citizens but those from Western countries residing in the region.

Since 1991, the ongoing civil war in Somalia has killed more than 300,000 people and injured countless others. As the country recovers, a continuing U.S. presence will be crucial to maintaining stability.

Currently, Somalia is showing signs of recovery and gradually becoming a popular destination for business, mainly due to its enhanced security situation in recent years. The persistent efforts of the international community, led by the United States, have made this possible. For decades, the U.S. government has provided training and equipment to Somalia’s armed forces. The U.S.-trained unit Danab conducted many successful operations against al-Shabab, which has killed more than 4,000 people, including Americans.

Two months ago, a CIA paramilitary officer was killed while fighting alongside Danab. In early 2020, al-Shabab launched an attack against U.S. forces in Kenya, killing three Americans and destroying a U.S. surveillance plane.

These sacrifices have not been in vain. Thanks to U.S. involvement in Somalia, a 9/11-style attack against the U.S. homeland was recently foiled—a reminder of the mutually beneficial relationship between the two countries.

This relationship is now at risk. On Dec. 4, Trump ordered the removal of U.S. soldiers from Somalia by early 2021.

The proposed withdrawal comes at an especially critical time and is a risk to the stability of the entire region. Indeed, Ethiopia is in the middle of a civil war and has withdrawn thousands of its troops who had been helping the Somali army fight against al-Shabab. Kenya-Somalia relations are at their lowest point in years, and domestic tensions are high over the upcoming elections and a string of attacks and assassinations. If the United States goes ahead with its withdrawal, it could have a huge impact on stability in Somalia, deal a major blow to morale among Somalia’s armed forces, and raise questions about U.S. credibility.

The proposed withdrawal comes at an especially critical time and is a risk to the stability of the entire region.

U.S. Defense Department officials claim the United States will “retain the capability to conduct targeted counterterrorism operations in Somalia, and collect early warnings and indicators.” However, in the eyes of many Somalis, Washington is abandoning the country. “Al-Shabab will frame this as a victory,” said Omar Mahmood, a senior Somalia analyst at the International Crisis Group. “They will use it as evidence of their ability to take on a world power like the United States and force them to leave Somalia.”

U.S. officials claim that moving troops to neighboring countries such as Kenya and Djibouti will have no major consequences. Somali officials disagree; former Danab chief Col. Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh criticized the move, saying that the U.S. military “can launch and stage operations from countries like Djibouti and Kenya, but it’s not the same as being in the country. … You can’t train a force remotely.” U.S. support in planning and launching raids in Somalia is a critical component of the fight against al-Shabab—one that cannot easily be replaced.

It is true that a permanent U.S. military presence in Somalia is not a long-term solution. However, this transition should happen with the help of the international community. The Somali government has started to see success toward building an effective security force, thanks in large part to Washington’s unwavering support for Somalia and its people. With U.S. support, the Somali army was able to reduce al-Shabab’s military capabilities, diminish its territorial control, and bring peace back to large areas of Somalia. But the group remains a persistent threat to the region.

Now more than ever, Somalia needs the support of the United States. Leaving Somalia to fend for itself would risk erasing years of progress. Al-Shabab could reconquer territory, strengthen its military capabilities, and increase its stranglehold over the Somali people. “It’s my hope therefore that the U.S. government will reevaluate its decision and hopefully change,” one Danab officer—who prefers to remain anonymous—told me.

The Biden administration needs to increase U.S. efforts in Somalia in order to strengthen the government’s capabilities to contain the threat posed by al-Shabab. The first step Biden can take would be an immediate redeployment, followed by concrete assurances of future U.S. support. Otherwise, America’s hard-fought efforts to bring peace and stability to Somalia will have been in vain.

Abdi Yusuf is an international affairs researcher and a freelance writer based in Nairobi.

 

Over 80 sivile skal være drept i nytt angrep i Etiopia

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Minst 80 mennesker er drept et angrep i en landsby vest i Etiopia, ifølge landets nasjonale menneskerettighetskommisjon.

Lille julaften ble 200 sivile ifølge lokale myndigheter drept i Metekel-området i Benishangul-Gumuz-regionen. Massakren skjedde dagen etter at statsminister Abiy Ahmed besøkte området og krevde at skyldige i tidligere overgrep ble stilt til ansvar.

Sudan sends delegation to neighboring countries, bans aviation over state bordering Ethiopia

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Sudan sends delegation to neighboring countries to talk over the country’s border dispute with Ethiopia. 

Sudan’s Transitional Council and the Joint Council of Ministers have decided to visit neighboring countries regarding the country’s border dispute with Ethiopia, Al Ain News reported.

Authorities are reportedly in Cairo, Asmara, Juba and Saudi Arabia to explain the situation.

Lieutenant General Shamsedin Kabashi, a member of the Transitional Federal Council (TFP) is in South Sudan, Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, vice chairman of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Eritrea, Lieutenant General Ibrahim Jabir, a member of the Transitional Federal Council (TFP) in Chad, and Mohammed Faki Suleiman in Saudi Arabia.

Acting Foreign Minister Omar Kemedin, Chief of Intelligence General Jamal Aden Omar, Information Minister Faisal Mohammed Salih and Lieutenant General Sham Il-Dean Kabashi, a member of the Transitional Council, left for Cairo today.

Lt. Gen. Abdulfatah Alburhan visited the Ethiopia-Sudan border. Reportedly, he told members of the defense force that he will not leave the area as it belongs to Sudan.

Aviation banned

On Thursday Sudan announced a ban on civil aviation in the airspace of Al-Qadarif state which borders Ethiopia, citing security reasons, Anadolu Agency reported.

“The Ministry of Defense has sent a decision to the Civil Aviation Authority to prevent flying over the airspace of Al-Qadarif State,” Abdelhafez Abdelrahim, the spokesman for the Sudanese Civil Aviation Authority, told Anadolu Agency.

The decision was based on “security reasons,” he added.

The two East African nations have been locked in a border dispute since December when Sudanese forces crossed into Ethiopia saying they were reclaiming their lands.

Dozens Die in Ethnic Massacre in Troubled Ethiopian Region

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Source: The New York Times | Simon Marks and Declan Walsh

It was the latest of several bloody outbursts over the past year in the western region of Benishangul-Gumuz, along the border with Sudan, where ethnic tensions are running high.

At least 80 people were killed on Tuesday when unidentified gunmen stormed through a village in western Ethiopia in the latest of a series of ethnically driven massacres in the area, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and witnesses said on Wednesday.

The massacre in Benishangul-Gumuz region, along the border with Sudan, is the latest challenge to the regime of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who came to power in 2018 promising to unite Ethiopia but has struggled to contain a growing wave of ethnic violence.

The attacks further threaten the stability of Africa’s second-most populous nation at a time when Mr. Abiy is already embroiled in an escalating conflict in the northern Tigray region, where he launched a major military operation on Nov. 4 that he said was intended to capture defiant local leaders.

Analysts say the campaign in Tigray has hampered Mr. Abiy’s ability to stem clashes like the recent one in Benishangul-Gumuz, because it has forced him to divert soldiers from across Ethiopia to Tigray. As a result, ethnic clashes that had already been growing for months have only gotten worse.

In the latest episode, witnesses said that men of the Gumuz ethnic group, armed with rifles and swords, stormed into Daletti village early Tuesday. Photos from the aftermath of the attack, provided by local activists, showed bloodied bodies of women and children strewn on the ground, many with horrific wounds. They said that many of the victims were ethnic Amharas and Agaws, who are a minority in that region.

“A group of Gumuz men came to our village chanting ‘leave our land,’” said Sebsibie Ibrahim, 36, a shop owner in Metekel district, speaking by phone. “They fired their guns and used swords to attack anyone they came across — women, children, elderly people.”

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In the chaos that followed, houses were torched and an old man was beheaded outside his house, Mr. Sebsibie said. “Blood was flooding from his neck,” he said.

On Dec. 22, Mr. Abiy took time out from the campaign in Tigray to visit Benishangul-Gumuz and calm tensions in the area. But a day later, armed men attacked a village, leaving at least 100 people dead, according to human rights groups.

Aaron Maasho, a spokesman for the government-funded Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, which reported the killings on Wednesday, urged Mr. Abiy to deploy extra security forces to keep the peace in the troubled region.

“For the umpteenth time, we call on the federal and regional authorities to scale up security in Metekel,” he said, referring to the district of Benishangul-Gumuz where the killings took place.

Mr. Abiy’s decision to open up Ethiopian politics after he came to power in 2018, releasing political prisoners and allowing exiles to return, was widely acclaimed. But it also unleashed simmering ethnic tensions.

Benishangul-Gumuz, for example, is home to five major ethnic groups, mostly from the Berta and Gumuz peoples. But the region is also home to minority Amharas, Oromos, Tigrayans and Agaws — a source of escalating tension.

Billene Seyoum, a spokeswoman for Prime Minister Abiy, did not respond to questions about the violence.

Dessalegn Chanie, an Amhara opposition politician, said there had been signs in recent days that armed men from the Oromo and Gumuz ethnic groups were preparing an attack, particularly in areas where there was little federal security presence.

“These attacks were premeditated and highly prepared,” he said.

Although Mr. Abiy declared victory in Tigray last month, United Nations officials say the fight continues.

On Wednesday, Ethiopia said its military had killed three senior members of Tigray’s former ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, including Seyoum Mesfin, a former foreign minister of Ethiopia.

Without U.S. Aid, Where Would Egypt Turn?

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Terminating U.S. aid to Cairo would jeopardize the long-standing U.S.-Egyptian relationship and regional stability for years to come.

As a candidate, Joe Biden issued a stern warning to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, pledging “no more blank checks for Trump’s favorite dictator.” Biden and his team have signaled they would limit or in some cases halt support for countries based on their human rights records, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Biden’s team has threatened to condition the $1.5 annual bilateral aid the United States has provided Egypt since 1946. Following the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, which was signed subsequent to the Camp David Accords in 1979, U.S. military and economic assistance to Cairo has increased significantly. Every U.S. administration has justified the continuation of aid to Cairo as necessary for sustaining regional stability, safeguarding U.S. interests, and prolonging cooperation with the Egyptian military.

Limiting U.S. aid to Cairo would jeopardize the long-standing U.S.-Egyptian relationship for years to come. At the same time, denunciations over El-Sisi’s human rights record are legitimate. During his presidency, El-Sisi has unjustly imprisoned human rights defenders, journalists and activists in Egypt, reversing freedoms achieved in the 2011 Arab Spring uprising. However, terminating dialogue with Cairo would be harmful to regional security, as Egypt would lean on other human rights abusers for support instead.

El-Sisi took this threat seriously and in recent months began veering Egypt away from the U.S. and towards Western adversaries—including China. On August 5, Egypt agreed to let China establish a Mediterranean container terminal in Abu Qir, extending China’s reach and ability to bolster its One Belt One Road initiative in the Middle East. El-Sisi’s outreach to China poses severe implications for U.S. policy as it demonstrates Egypt’s willingness to work with Western adversaries to ensure its economic and military security.

Biden’s Middle East team must also consider the importance of sustained Israeli-Egyptian cooperation while it contemplates potential Egypt policy agendas. Four decades of peace between Israel and Egypt have been a highly important asset to the region. Since both countries signed the 1979 peace accord, Egypt has played an essential role in safeguarding Israel’s security on its western border with Gaza, which has been controlled by Hamas since 2007. Cairo and Tel Aviv’s shared disdain for the de facto governing authority in Gaza has contributed to their common ground. Egyptian and Israeli forces have worked together to counter the Sinai insurgency, an ongoing ISIS affiliated uprising on the peninsula. If the United States terminates supporting Egypt’s collaborative counter-terror efforts through military technology transfers and monetary aid, the Cairo-Tel Aviv relationship will be tested.

In addition to the Israel-Egypt relationship, cooperation between the United States and Egypt significantly cuts across multiple spheres, including security, counterterrorism, and intelligence. Both the Obama and Trump administrations defended continual aid to Egypt as crucial for regional stability. In 2013 the Obama administration partially halted its supply of military equipment to Egypt following the coup d’état that brought President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to power. However, these limitations were lifted two years later in the “name of U.S. national security,” according to Obama administration officials. The equipment freeze was reversed since Egypt’s counter-terrorism efforts and anti-ISIS operations in the Sinai region and Libya were prioritized.

French President Emmanuel Macron recently faced pressure to limit and condition the sale of weapons to Egypt on the basis of human rights violations. However, Macron chose a different course than what Biden reportedly is planning. During a joint news conference in Paris with Egyptian President El-Sisi on December 7, Macron announced France would not abide by this strategy as it would be a detriment to Cairo’s ability to counter terrorism in the region. Macron stated he “would not condition matters of defense and economic cooperation on these disagreements (over human rights)…it is more effective to have a policy of demanding dialogue than a boycott which would only reduce the effectiveness of one our partners in the fight against terrorism.”

Terminating dialogue with Egypt will not lead to the cessation of human rights violations. In order to sustain its counter-terror capabilities and economic security, El-Sisi will unquestionably look to other authoritarian human rights abusers, including China and Russia, as replacements for support. The United States often has to make difficult national security decisions to cooperate with states with poor human rights records. Instead of boycotting Cairo and ultimately pushing them toward unsavory new partnerships, the U.S. could take up a two-track approach to Egypt, prioritizing the advancement of security issues while simultaneously pushing for improvements in human rights.

Maya Carlin is an Analyst with the Center for Security Policy located in Washington DC. She is a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel, where she completed her MA in Counter-terrorism and Homeland Security.

Outrage over damage to Tigray mosque

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Source: Middle East Eye | Zecharias Zelalem

Details of the damage inflicted on the al-Nejashi mosque – believed to be one of the oldest mosques in Africa – took weeks to emerge

Nejashi

 

The conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region – pitting the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies against rebel Tigray forces since 4 November – has caused concern over its humanitarian toll, with tens of thousands of Ethiopians fleeing to neighbouring Sudan and allegations surfacing of violent crimes against civilians.

In recent weeks, outrage has poured in on social media as news emerged that the conflict had also touched one of the region’s most revered religious heritage sites: the historical al-Nejashi mosque in the area of Wukro.

One of Africa’s oldest mosques and touted as a potential Unesco World Heritage site, al-Nejashi has been mourned as one of the casualties of the chaos of war – while belated government vows to repair it have been treated with suspicion.

Worrying rumours

Since fighting began in Tigray over two months ago, the area has been cut off from the rest of the world due to internet and phone outages. Ethiopian authorities have also barred journalists and aid workers from much of the region.

Mounting reports of potential war crimes and infrastructural damage have therefore been difficult to authenticate, as Addis Ababa continues to resist calls from the United Nations to grant it unfettered access to the region, where it estimates over a million people have been internally displaced.

In late November, rumours began to surface on social media of fighting in Wukro, more than 800km north of the Ethiopian capital. Accounts emerged that several houses of worship – including the al-Nejashi mosque and the nearby Amanuel Orthodox church – had been shelled around that time.

On 27 November, an Ethiopian army commander told Ethiopian state broadcaster FBC that his troops had secured control of the area, but made no mention of damage to religious sites.

A day later, Ethiopian troops captured the regional capital of Mekelle and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared the war over.

But telephone and internet services are yet to be restored to Wukro and its surroundings, as fighting persists in rural areas.

On 18 December, a communique by the Belgium-based Europe External Programme with Africa reported that the mosque “was first bombed and later looted by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops”, before mentioning that sources in the region spoke of killings at the mosque.

Distress over the incident reached fever pitch on New Year’s Day, when photos and video footage of the significantly damaged al-Nejashi mosque first appeared on social media, going viral.

Images showed the mosque’s minaret destroyed, its dome partially collapsed and its facade in ruins. Inside the mosque, rubble littered the floor.

Ahmed Siraj, a representative of the regional International Association of Muslims in Tigray, told Middle East Eye that his organisation had recorded the deaths of several people killed by combatants in the wake of the partial destruction of the mosque.

“We have determined from our sources that a number of innocent people, including a father of four children, were killed by Eritrean soldiers simply for protesting against the mosque’s pillaging on 26 November,” Siraj said.

Siraj added that a number of artefacts were believed to have been stolen from the mosque, including religious manuscripts, books and letters dating as far back as the seventh century, while a shrine believed to hold the remains of some followers of the Prophet Muhammad was also in need of repairs.

An official from the state-run Ethiopian Heritage Preservation Authority said on 5 January that a team would be sent to inspect the mosque’s damage, as well as that of a nearby church, before repairs were undertaken.

But Siraj said such efforts couldn’t undo the human and cultural toll.

“Repairs won’t bring them back. Nor will it bring back the stolen artefacts,” he said.

The office of the Ethiopian premier had not responded to a MEE request for comment at the time of writing.

Renowned history

Confirmation of the damage inflicted to the al-Nejashi mosque provoked widespread shock and outrage among Ethiopians, Muslims and Christians alike.

The iconic mosque was built in the seventh century and is among the holiest sites in Islam.

Ahmedin Jebel, a prominent Ethiopian Muslim scholar and writer, told MEE that the mosque was reportedly built by early followers of the prophet fleeing persecution from the ruling Quraysh tribe in Mecca.

The prophet reportedly told a dozen of his followers to head towards the kingdom of Aksum – located in present-day Ethiopia – where the Christian king, known as Nejashi, would offer them sanctuary.

“Twelve men and four women took heed of the prophet’s advice and made the pilgrimage to the Kingdom of Aksum,” Jebel said. “Among them, Ruqayyah bint Muhammad, daughter of the prophet himself.

“In Islam, the mosque has a renowned rich history of justice and tolerance, as King Nejashi rejected bribes from the Quraysh to turn in his guests who had fled their homelands seeking freedom,” he added. “Mosques around the world have since been named in Nejashi’s honour.”

Jebel was pessimistic about the Ethiopian Authority for Research and Conservation of Cultural Heritage’s initiative to repair the mosque.

“There was a concentrated effort by the preservation authority to cover up the mosque’s destruction for weeks,” he explained. “The fact that the destruction of a mosque as cherished and prominent as the al-Nejashi mosque could be kept secret this long has me doubting whether they would put in a sincere effort to hasten repairs.”

Government silence

Prior to the publication of images of the mosque, Ethiopian government officials hadn’t addressed growing accounts of the mosque’s destruction.

While information has been difficult to verify due to strict government restrictions in Tigray, the most well-circulated account of events has alleged that the mosque was hit by either Eritrean or Ethiopian army heavy weaponry, before being looted by allied Eritrean soldiers.

Akemel Negash is a journalist and senior editor for local news outlet Amba Digital, which was the first media organisation to cover the mosque’s destruction prior to the release of the pictures. He echoed Jebel’s sentiments and said authorities’ deafening silence was an effort to avoid backlash.

‘It left me devastated. There’s no precedent for this. The al-Nejashi mosque has been around for millennia’

– Ahmed Siraj, International Association of Muslims in Tigray

“The federal government has been prompt to report on the destruction of property throughout the war, but only when it’s caused by their foes,” he told MEE.

“The destruction of Aksum Airport by Tigrayan rebel forces was given immediate airtime on state media. Images of homes and hospitals said to have been destroyed by them have been widely circulated as well.

“But when the government’s allied forces destroy something as prominent as one of Islam’s most cherished heritage sites, they keep it hushed until citizen journalists exposed it. They were well aware of it, but said nothing as it didn’t serve political ambitions,” he added.

While many appear unconvinced by the government’s pledges to swiftly repair the mosque, for Tigray Muslims such Siraj, the damage is already done.

“It left me devastated,” Siraj said. “There’s no precedent for this. The al-Nejashi mosque has been around for millennia.

“In that time, there have been all sorts of tyrants in Ethiopia, including some who targeted Muslims for oppression. But none of them dared touch the mosque,” he added.

“The fact that this would first happen in the 21st century is especially shocking and should be worrying for all Ethiopians.”