Tigray War – Useful Links

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Daily Briefing Highlights and Tigray Region Humanitarian Update

UNDaily Press Briefings by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General.

Europe External Programme with Africa (EEPA), Daily Situation Reports and others.

TGHAT, A list of victims of Genocide in Tigray compiled from different sources.

BBC. Tigray Crisis.

Jan Nysen, Professor of Geography at Ghent University (Belgium) The Situation in Tigray by the end of 2020

Solomon Negash, News and commentaries.

 

The list will regularly be updated.

Ethiopia among top five in the International Rescue Committee’s 2021 Emergency Watchlist

Ethiopia features on the International Rescue Committee’s annual Emergency Watchlist for the third year in a row but rises into the top five for the first time due to escalating conflict.

Here are four reasons Ethiopia is one of the countries most at risk of humanitarian catastrophe in 2021, for the third year in a row:

  • Conflict in the Tigray region sparks refugee movements amid allegations of violence against civilians.
  • Ongoing political tensions increase the risk of instability across the country.
  • COVID-19 more than doubles the number of people in need of humanitarian aid.
  • Ethiopia is the epicenter of the largest locust outbreak in decades.

Read full story here.

ዋዕላ ሱዳን፣ ግብጺን ኢትዮጵያን ኣብ ጉዳይ ግድብ ህዳሴ

ጽባሕ ሰንበት (10.01.2001 GC) ሱዳን፣ ግብጺን ኢትዮጵያን ህዳሴ ግድብ አመልኪተን ክዝትያ እዬን።

አብዚ ሰሙን ሱዳን ብዝተፈላለየ መንገዲ ጠንካራ ቅዋማ ክትገልጽ ጸኒሓ እላ።

በሶኒ ናይ ሰለስቲአን ሀገራት ሚንስትራት ሀፍቲ ማይን ቴክኒካል መራሕትን ክመያየጡ ብውድብ ሕቡራት አፍሪካ (ኤዩ) አብ ዝተዳለወ መድረኽ፣ “ኤዩ ብቅጥዒ ናይ ምምራሕ ዓቅሚ ስለዘይብሉ፣ አብቲ መድረኽ አይሳተፍን” ኢላ ነጺጋቶ ነይራ።

ጎን ንጎኒ ድማ ብጉልበት አብ ዝተቆጻጸረቶ መሬት አልፋሽቃ አራጢጣ ኮፍ ኢላ፣ “ዶብና ንጠርረሉ እዋን ሕዚ እዩ” እንዳበለት ኣብ መንግስቲ ኢትዮጵያ ጸቅጢ ክትገብር ቀንያ አላ።

ኤርትራ አብ ዘየእታው አትያ ንሱዳን ክትወግእ ከምዝጸነሐት ንማሕበረሰብ ዓለም ፍለጡለይ ክትብል አውን ቀንያ አላ።

በዚ ዝተለዓለ ሻዕቢያ ብአደባባይ ፈኸረ ካብ ምስማዕ ሓሊፉ ሰራዊቱ አጓዓዒዙ ቦታ-ቦታ ከምዘትሐዘን፣ አብ ዝኾነ እዋን አድላይ ስጉምቲ ክወስድ ከምዝኽእልን አፍሊጡ አሎ።

ካብኡ ሓሊፉ ሻዕቢያ “ምስ ግብጺ ሸሪኾም ህዳሴ ግድብ ተሀኒጹ ከይውዳእ ዕንቅፋት ንዝኾኑ ዘለዉ ሓይሊታት ምስ ኢትዮጵያ ብምሕባር ስጉምቲ ክንወስደሉ ኢና” ብምባል አሰላልፋኡ አንጻር ግብጺ ምዃኑ ብዕሊ ገሊጹ አሎ።

ግብጺ፣ ሱዳንን ፈተውተን አዕራብ ሀገራትን ብሓደ ገጽ፤ ኤርትራ፣ ኢዮጵያን ኢመሬትን ብኻሊእ ገጽ ናብ ሓያል ኲናት የምርሓ ከምዘለዋ ካብ ዝተፈላለዩ ዜናታት ንምረዳእ ተኻኢሉ አሎ።

ሰለስቲአን ሀገራት ጽባሕ ዝገብርኦ ድርድር ነቲ ዘሎ ውጥረት ከየፈንድኦ ተሰጊኡ አሎ።

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 50 – 09 January 2021

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • The ENDF has announced that next to the nine officials that it captured, they have also killed four other Tigrayan officials. The officials killed are the TPLF spokesman, the former head of the Tigray finance bureau, and two other core members. The ENDF did not detail how the four men were killed.
  • The ENDF reinforcements that were seen moving towards Mekelle at the beginning of the week have reached Alamata. The force consists of 8 tanks, 20 buses, and 5 heavy trucks.
  • Heavy gunfire has been reported in Mekelle and its outskirts. Heavy artillery bombing was reported in Wukro, North of Mekelle.
  • Report that Maryam Tsiyon Church has been attacked (local people believe with the aim to take the Ark of Covenant to Addis Ababa). Hundreds of people hiding in the Maryam Tsiyon Church were brought out and shot on the square in front. The number of people killed is reported as 750.
  • Satellite images have detected a fire in Baeker, Humera. Fighting has been reported in that area.
  • Reported in social media that the Sudanese army would have evidence of participation of Eritrean troops in the war between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed border area, Al-Fashqa.
  • Reported that Eritrean troops are currently in all administrative zones in Tigray, except the Southern zone. This includes: Tekeze area, Adigoshu, Maywoini (Geyts), Fresalem (Edris), Adebay, Ousman, Jebel, Humera, Rawyan, Bereket (Western); Shire, Endebagina, Selekleka, Adihageray, Adinebried, Sheraro, Semema (North Western); Wukro Maray, Aksum, Adwa, Rama, Egela, Zana (Central); Adigrat, Edaga Hamus, Wukro, Hawzen (Eastern).
  • Extreme looting reported in the Gheralta area, and Hawzen has been seriously damaged (‘destroyed’).
  • Another list of names of civilian victims in the districts of Gheralta and Enderta (Tigray) has emerged. Reportedly, the victims were killed by Eritrean troops. All the names on the list are of men.
  • Reported that Eritrean soldiers use Ethiopian military uniforms as disguise but local people recognise them easily as they speak Tigrigna with an Eritrean accent. Mostly, especially in Western Tigray, the Eritrean troops are wearing the uniforms of the Eritrean army, according to reports.
  • A second humanitarian worker from Dutch humanitarian NGO ZOA has also been killed in the Hitsats refugee camp, where heavy fighting is reported.
  • According to the UN OCHA fighting in Tigray continues, among other locations, in the Mekelle Periphery, Shire, and Shiraro. The fighting has stopped the deployment of some of its missions.
  • Unconfirmed: Sebhat Nega, 86, the co-founder of the TPLF, was arrested in a remote valley, together with defected officers from the Northern Command. Sebhat Nega, also referred to as ‘Aboy Sebhat’ (‘father Sebhat’) is a retired political intellectual, former director of the Tigray Endowment Fund and director of a think tank, the Foreign Relations Strategic Study Institute in Addis Ababa until 2018.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • The Vice-Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, General M.H. Dugalo (‘Hemiti’ or ‘Hamediti’) met with Eritrean President Isaias in Asmara on Friday. The visit followed accusations that Eritrea is involved in the war on the Ethiopia-Sudan border. The visit was reported as a failure.  President Ramaphosa of South Africa has said that the AU appointed Special Envoys on Tigray will visit the Tigray area soon.
  • President Kiir of South Sudan has called on the Sudanese government to reach a settled negotiation with Ethiopia. He made the comments following a meeting with al-Din Kabbashi, a member of the Sovereign Council, and Omer Gamar Eldin, the acting Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • The Global Center for the Responsibility to Protect is urging states with significant military ties to Ethiopia, to withhold military assistance until all war crimes and human rights violations have been investigated, and their perpetrators held accountable.
  • A demonstration has taken place in The Hague, the Netherlands, organised by Tigray and Eritrean members of the diaspora, demanding that Eritrean troops leave Tigray immediately.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • UN OCHA states in a report that the situation in Tigray remains volatile. While, it believes that the situation has been improving, access to food, water, and medical supplies remains limited. The report has identified that looting of humanitarian supplies and equipment continues in some areas, including Kuiha and Lachi.
  • The UN OCHA report identifies that 4.5 million people needing emergency assistance, of which 2.2 million IDPs. However only 77 thousand people in Mekelle and 25 thousand in Mai Ayni and Adi Harush refugee camps have received food support from the UN and its partners.
  • UN OCHA reports that it still does not have access to Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps. Bureaucratic constraints and lack of security has made it more difficult to access many areas of Tigray.
  • Sources disagree with UN OCHA’s assessment that things are going back to normal in Mekelle, Alamata, and Mehoni. Fighting has still been taking place in the area, and people are being prevented from leaving. Moreover, a critical lack of many supplies still exists in the area.
  • Demtsi Woyane, DW, a TPLF aligned broadcast, has released further footage of a heavily looted buildings of Mekelle University. Multiple departments have been completely emptied.
  • Since mid-November the accounts of EFFORT, the umbrella to which many companies in Tigray belong, have been frozen and reports show that its huge assets are now being ‘redistributed’ in Ethiopia.

Refugee Situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • Ethiopian refugees in Sudan have told The World on their experiences in the conflict. A witness recounts how on his flight to Sudan he Ethiopian Federal Troops were accompanied by Eritrean soldiers. They proceeded to shoot his son twice and left him to die.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.pri.org/stories/2021-01-05/sudan-ethiopian-refugees-tell-their-stories
https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-tigray-region-humanitarian-update-situation-report-6-january-2021
https://africanarguments.org/2021/01/eritrea-in-the-tigray-war-what-we-know-and-why-it-might-backfire/
https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/finance-and-policy/tigray-conflict-could-delay-grand-renaissance-dam-negotiations/
https://www.globalr2p.org/publications/atrocity-alert-no-234-ethiopia-china-and-niger/

በትግራይ ጦርነቱ አሁንም እንደ ቀጠለ ነው ሲል ተመድ ገለጸ

የተመድ ልኡካን አዲስ በለቀቁት ሪፖርት እንደገለጹት ከሆነ በትግራይ አሁንም አለመረጋጋቱ ቀጥሏል።

ሪፖርቱ እስከተጠናቀረበት ድረስ በመቀለ፣ ሽረና ሸራሮ ዙሪያ በበርካታ ቦታዎች ጦርነቱ እንደቀጠለ ነው።  ልዑካኑ ወደ ሽረና ሽራሮ መጓዝ እንዳልቻለ ገልጿል።

የተባበሩት መንግስታት የሰብዓዊ ጉዳዮች ማስተባበሪያ ጽህፈት ቤት  (UN OCHA) በታህሳስ ወር በሁለት ቡድን ወደ ትግራይ ተጉዞ ጥናት ካደረገ ብኋላ በለቀቀው ሪፖርት መሰረት፣ በጦርነት በተጎዳው ክልል ውስጥ ከ4.5 ሚሊዮን በላይ ሰዎች አስቸኳይ የምግብ ዕርዳታ እንደሚያስፈልጋቸው የገለጸ ሲሆን፣ ከጦርነቱ ወዲህ የምግብ እርዳታ ያገኙ ሰዎች 100 ሺ እንደማይሞሉ ለማወቅ ተችሏል።

በተጨማሪም ጦርነቱ ከተቀሰቀሰ በኋላ 2.2 ሚሊዮን የክልሉ ኗሪዎች ከቀያቸው መፈናቀላቸውን ጠቁሟል።

በፀጥታና በቢሮክራሲያዊ መሰናክሎች ምክንያት የከተማ አካባቢዎችን ብቻ ለመገምገም እንደተገደደ የገለጸው የልኡካን ቡድኑ፣ በክልሉ ውሱን የምግብ አቅርቦት እንዳለና ከፍተኛ የዋጋ ጭማሪ እየታየ መሆኑን በሪፖርቱ አመላክቷል። የባንክ አገልግሎት ስለመጀመሩ የተገለጸ ነገር የለም።

የልዑካን ቡድኑ በጉብኝቱ “ደካማ የመንግስት አገልግሎቶች፣ አስከፊ የኑሮ ሁኔታ እና የሰብአዊ ጉዳዮች እንዳሉ” መታዘቡን በሪፖርቱ አመላክቷል ፡፡

በርካታ ንብረቶች እንደወደሙና እንደተዘረፉ ያመላከተው ሪፖርቱ፣ በክልሉ ከሚገኙ 40 ሆስፒታሎች ውስጥ በሽተኞችን በአካል ተቀብለው በማስተናገድ አገልግሎት መስጠት የሚችሉት 5 ብቻ መሆናቸውን ገልጿል። ከነዚህ በተጨማሪ አራት ሆስፒታሎች የስልክ አገልግሎት ብቻ ይሰጣሉ ብሏል።

የኤርትራ ወታደሮችም በውጊያው መሳተፋቸውን የኢትዮጵያ መንግስት ሲክድ የቆየ ቢሆንም፣ የንግድ ተቋማትን በመዝረፍ እና ስደተኞችን አፍኖ በመውሰድ የኤርትራ ወታደሮች ተሰማርተው ማየታቸውን ማብራሪያ እንዲሰጡ የተጠየቁ የእርዳታ ሰራተኞች እና ዲፕሎማቶች ገልጸዋል፡፡

የሰሜን እዝ አዛዥ ሜጀር ጄነራል በላይ ስዩም እና በፌደራል መንግስት የተሾመው ጊዜያዊው የመቀለ ከንቲባ አቶ አታክልቲ ወልደስላሴ በተናጠል ከመቀለ ኗሪዎች ጋር ባደረጉት ውይይት የኤርትራ ወታደሮች በትግራይ እንደሚገኙ ማመናቸው ይታወሳል።

ሰ.ነ. 

 

Eritreiske styrker deltok i Tigray-kamper, ifølge etiopisk militæroffiser

Abc Nyheter | Eritreiske sikkerhetsstyrker var aktive i konflikten i Tigray i nabolandet Etiopia, opplyser en offiser i det etiopiske forsvaret.

Tigray-flyktninger har opplyst at eritreiske sikkerhetsstyrker angrep og bortførte eritreiske flyktninger, i tillegg til lokale Tigray-innbyggere.

Både Tigray-opprørere og USA har også meldt om eritreisk deltakelse.

Eritreiske myndigheter nekter for at landets sikkerhetsstyrker var aktive i konflikten.

Den etiopiske hæren startet i november en omfattende militæroffensiv mot opprørere i den nordlige Tigray-regionen. Titusenvis flyktet, og FN har varslet om grove menneskerettighetsbrudd.

Etiopias fredsprisvinnende statsminister Abiy Ahmed Ali erklærte seier i desember.

(©NTB)

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 47 – 08 January 2021

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • Reported that ethnic Tigray soldiers being suspended and/or returned from Ethiopian peace-keeping missions are imprisoned by the Ethiopian Federal Government.
  • Reported that ethnic Tigrayan military attachés in Ethiopian diplomatic services abroad are sacked.
  • Reported that Eritrean soldiers were ambushed by Tigrayan forces East of Wukro.
  • Pictures have emerged of the ambush between Mekoni and Mekelle. Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) forces were ambushed by Tigray forces.
  • Report that Eritrean forces occupy Hitsats town in Tigray and control the area, including a refugee camp which hosts 25.000 refugees from Eritrea. The camp has still not been reached by humanitarian organisations and refugees and communities have been without food supplies for over two months.
  • The ENDF released the names of 9 senior TPLF members they have captured, according to the report.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • An Eritrean delegation has met with the Chairman of the Sovereign Council Al-Burhan of Sudan. They discussed regional security and tried to strengthen bilateral ties and regional security. The Eritreans reportedly offered to mediate the conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan. Sudan rejected the offer.
  • One of the leading African Constitutional and Human rights law experts, Paulos Tesfagiorgis, has argued that the peace process that the AU initiated to solve the conflict in Tigray was undermined by the AU Commission chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, from the beginning. According to Tesfagiorgis, Mahamat was “blatantly partisan” and undermined the peacemaking process.
  • Tesfagiorgis argues that the Chairperson’s position “violates the letter and spirit of the African Union and IGAD constitutive documents and numerous subsequent resolutions,..” Mahamat undermined any chances of peace and the principles that the regional and continental bodies pursue, he states.
  • It was earlier reported that a proposal at the 38th Extraordinary Conference of IGAD for the AU Commission Chairperson, Mahamat, to visit Tigray was withdrawn from the communiqué.
  • Tesfagiorgis also stated that “Today there is alarming news of starvation in Eritrea. The regime has politicized the issue of the virus and opted to use it as a weapons to starve and weaken the people by enforcing lockdown without the means to feed them.”
  • Eritrea has taken complete lock-down measures. A source from Eritrea reported the COVID-spread is ‘devastating’, reporting that doctors, drivers and government officials have reportedly been infected.
  • The UN fears that the recent conflict in Tigray has facilitated massive COVID-19 community transmission in Tigray. Other sources suggested the conflict has facilitated the spread across all involved regions, including Eritrea.
  • Sudan has confirmed the arrival of more refugees from Ethiopia. The humanitarian official said that most refugees cross at night, to avoid military patrols on the border, stopping refugees from crossing.
  • The Ethiopian government has denied that more Ethiopian troops had been placed on the border to prevent refugees from crossing into Sudan.
  • The Council for the Arab States of the Gulf encourages members to cooperate with Sudan.
  • No agreement has yet been reached on reopening negotiations on the GERD dam. Sudan and Egypt disagree on the role that AU experts should play during the negotiations.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • In its recent report crisis NGO ACAPS ranks humanitarian access in Ethiopia with Very High Access Constraints. Areas not under the control of the government remain inaccessible for humanitarian aid.
  • ACAPS states that the border with Sudan has been partially closed since the Tigray conflict started.
  • The associate director of Human Rights Watch has said that it is essential to allow unhindered access to Tigray. With estimations on the number of IDPs ranging from 200 thousand (by the UN) to over 2 million (by the interim Tigray government), it is important to have unhindered access to reach them.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • The majority of the displaced people in the area have returned home, but most of their belongings have been looted. The UN has observed massive damage and vandalisation to public health centres. Infrastructure and other public buildings urgently need repairs.
  • The UN has only provided food relief to Mekelle and Mai Ayni and Adi Harush refugee camps. It would appear that until now no food has been provided to the camps Shemelba and Hitsats, home to 50.000 Eritrean refugees. These have not received food since October last year.

International Situation (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held a viral meeting on Wednesday. They discussed various challenges and initiatives for the promotion of peace and security. UN Chief Antonio Gutteres expressed support for the AU “silence the guns” initiative. Liberia’s former President, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, called on the Council to take bold steps towards ending conflicts.
  • President Kenyatta of Kenya has laid out Kenya’s agenda for its year tenure of a non-permanent UNSC seat. It includes a greater role for Africa and the Global South, COVID-19 vaccines for Africa, and a revitalised multilateralism aimed at strengthening global peace and security.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1788376
https://www.unocha.org/story/daily-noon-briefing-highlights-ethiopia-8
https://www.acaps.org/country/world/special-reports#container-1592
https://africanarguments.org/2021/01/the-ethiopian-conflict-and-the-abrogation-of-the-au-mandate-by-the-commission-chairperson/

UN fears ‘massive’ COVID transmission in Ethiopia’s Tigray

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The United Nations fears “massive community transmission” of COVID-19 in Ethiopia’s troubled Tigray region, fueled by displacement and the collapse of health services, as humanitarian workers finally begin to access the region two months after fighting began. Hospitals have been looted, even destroyed.

A new U.N. report based on the first on-the-ground assessments confirms some of the grim concerns around Tigray’s some 6 million people since the conflict erupted Nov. 4 between Ethiopian forces and those of the Tigray region.

The crisis has threatened to destabilize one of Africa’s most powerful and populous countries and pull in neighbors like Sudan. Tigray leaders dominated Ethiopia’s government for nearly three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power and sidelined them amid sweeping reforms that won him the Nobel Peace Prize.

Abiy has rejected international “interference” in the conflict even as the U.N. and others pleaded for weeks for unhindered access to Tigray as food, medicines and other supplies ran out.

Now COVID-19 has emerged as the latest source of alarm. “Only five out of 40 hospitals in Tigray are physically accessible,” the new U.N. report issued Thursday says. “Apart from those in (the Tigray capital) Mekele, the remaining hospitals are looted and many reportedly destroyed.” It does not say who did the looting.

COVID-19 surveillance and control work was interrupted for more than a month in Tigray, and that, along with the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, “is feared to have facilitated massive community transmission of the pandemic,” the report says.

Ethiopia has one of the highest COVID-19 caseloads on the African continent with more than 127,000 confirmed infections. While its rate of daily cases has declined in recent weeks, officials have not said whether they have been receiving any data from the Tigray region.

“Health facilities outside of major cities are nonfunctional and those in the major cities are partially working with limited to no stock of supplies and absence of health workers,” the U.N. report says.

The report also says the Tigray region remains volatile. “Localized fighting and insecurity continues, with fighting reported in rural areas and in the peripheries of Mekele, Shiraro and Shire among other locations, as of last week,” it says.

The overall humanitarian situation is “dire,” the U.N. says, with food supplies “very limited” and widespread looting reported. “Only locally produced food items are available and at increasing prices, making basic goods unaffordable.” Most Tigray residents are subsistence farmers, and the conflict disrupted the harvest.

Two important camps hosting tens of thousands of refugees from nearby Eritrea remain unreachable — another source of alarm as the presence of Eritrean troops has been confirmed in Tigray.

No one knows how many thousands of people have been killed in the conflict. At least five humanitarian workers have been killed.

Abiy Ahmed and the Consolidation of Ethiopia’s Dictatorship

As Ethiopia heads toward the delayed elections tentatively now rescheduled for June 5, 2021, Ahmed’s fight not only undercuts his chief rival, who happens to be Tigrayan but enables him to use emergency powers to further erode democracy.

Source: National Interest | Michael Rubin

Africa has, for decades, been a democracy success story albeit one too often ignored in the West. When Ronald Reagan took office, U.S. exports to Africa accounted for only four percent of total U.S. exports and the share of American investment in Africa was even less. Strip away Morocco from the mix, and the proportion of U.S. trade with the continent’s then-fifty-two countries was even less. Freedom was a rare commodity. Freedo House’s Freedom in the World survey for 1983–84 ranked only Botswana, Mauritius, and Nigeria free among African countries. South Africa’s Apartheid regime and Ethiopia’s Derg were both stains on the continent.

As the Cold War ended, democracy bloomed where, for decades, authoritarians had it smothered. In 1990–91, Freedom House listed sixty-five free countries. A decade later, it counted eighty-six free countries. The democratic revolution in Africa contributed to the change. Benin went from a Soviet-style police state to a free state. Cape Verde Ghana, Mali, newly-independent Namibia, and post-Apartheid South Africa also ranked as free states.

Far more countries moved from not free to partly free. Ethiopia, the continent’s second-largest country by population, was one of them. In 1991, longtime Marxist dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam fled the country for Zimbabwe exile. Meles Zenawi took over as a transitional leader and embraced ethno-federalism in order to end the decades of ethnic conflict which Ethiopia had suffered. In May 1995, Ethiopia had its first multi-party elections. Some opposition parties boycotted the polls which many observers nonetheless deemed fair despite ruling authorities taking advantage of state resources. Government harassment of opponents continued, however, and the outbreak of war with Eritrea in 1998 further impeded political liberalization. While the 1995 constitution was progressive, the reality of its implementation often was not. In 2010, against a broad global backdrop of democratic backsliding, Freedom House returned Ethiopia to the ranks of the not free and observed, “Ethiopia’s trajectory has also been negative for a number of years, as Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has persecuted the political opposition, tilted the political playing field, and suppressed civil society.” In 2012, Freedom House returned Ethiopia to the ranks of the unfree. In 2018, it listed Ethiopia in the company of Venezuela, Turkey, and Yemen as having among the most precipitous declines in freedom over the previous decade.

It was perhaps for this reason that the 2018 rise of Abiy Ahmed to Ethiopia’s premiership captivated international diplomats. He succeeded Hailemariam Desalegn who was the first leader in Ethiopia’s history to step down voluntarily. At just forty-one-years-old, Ahmed represented generational change. He came from a security service background, but had a reputation as a reformer. Such optimism about Ahmed’s intentions grew when he sought to end the decades-long stand-off with Eritrea, an initiative which won him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of “his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea.”

There are no shortage of Nobel Peace Prize embarrassments but Ahmed is quickly positioning himself to be among the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s biggest regrets. In hindsight, what the Nobel Committee saw as a bold gamble for peace appears more a premeditated agreement to bury one hatchet to wield another. The Ethiopia-Eritrea border war was likened to a fight between two bald men fighting over a comb. With the border settled, Ahmed could then begin his own assault in conjunction with Eritrean forces on Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region as Ahmed seeks to recentralize Ethiopia and reverse the autonomy enjoyed by Ethiopia’s ethnically diverse regions and enshrined in the 1995 constitution.

The casus belli appears to be a dispute between the Tigray region and Ahmed’s government about his unilateral efforts to expand his mandate. In June 2020, Ahmed announced that he was postponing elections. Supporters said prudence against the backdrop of the coronavirus merited the extension of his term while opponents warned that abrogating the constitution opened the door to reconsolidate dictatorship. In Tigray, the regional government did not recognize the extension of Ahmed’s term and moved forward with its own elections which Ahmed deemed “illegal.” Tigrayan authorities responded by arguing that Ahmed’s condemnation was meaningless as his constitutional mandate expired in October 2020. Perhaps fearing that Tigray’s political defiance could spread to Ethiopia’s other region, in November 2020, Ahmed ordered Ethiopian Defense Forces to occupy Tigray and oust its elected government. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, one of the key forces which overthrew the Derg, dug-in to defend their Tigray’s local autonomy and to stymie rumors plans to transfer territory from their region to neighboring Amhara.

It has been a brutal fight. Ethiopian forces cut off communications to the regional capital Mekelle as Ethiopian forces marched on the city and reportedly subjected it to an artillery barrage. Despite Ethiopia’s repeated denials, Ahmed appointed his own mayor who now admits that Eritrean forces also joined the fighting, a fact the U.S. intelligence community now acknowledges. Eyewitness accounts describe Ethiopian and Eritrean forces summarily executing civilians and looting property. For Ahmed, power motivates, and for Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki, cash does. Few having tasted liberty are willing to forfeit it easily, however, and so unrest continues. On Dec. 27, Ethiopia reportedly lost a general.

Like many self-described reformers before him, Ahmed has grown addicted to power. He is not alone. In Somalia, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo has likewise moved to undermine federalism and restore dictatorial control akin to what Somalia experienced during his uncle Siad Barre’s regime. What makes Ahmed so dangerous is that well-meaning Norwegians bestowed him with the mantle of peacemaker. As Ethiopia heads toward the delayed elections tentatively now rescheduled for June 5, 2021, Ahmed’s fight not only undercuts his chief rival, who happens to be Tigrayan but enables him to use emergency powers to further erode democracy.

It is time for Western countries and African democracies to speak directly about the dangerous path down which Ahmed has sent Ethiopia. Ethiopia is a diverse country, so a centralized dictatorship simply will not work. As Ahmed seeks to substitute nationalist polemics for competence, he appears ready to pick fights not only with Egypt and Sudan, but with Kenya as well. Ahmed’s growing dependence on China increasingly appears less about development and more about finding a backer who will bankroll Ethiopia’s further slide into autocracy. Simply put, increasingly it appears that Ahmed is not the youthful, reformist alternative to Eritrea’s Isaias, but rather his pupil. Isaias brought tragedy to Eritrea. The international community should not be blind as a power-hungry Ahmed risks the same with Ethiopia.

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a frequent author for the National Interest.

Suspected Chinese hackers stole camera footage from African Union

Source: Reuters | Raphael Satter

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – As diplomats gathered at the African Union’s headquarters earlier this year to prepare for its annual leaders’ summit, employees of the international organization made a disturbing discovery.

Someone was stealing footage from their own security cameras.

Acting on a tip from Japanese cyber researchers, the African Union’s (AU) technology staffers discovered that a group of suspected Chinese hackers had rigged a cluster of servers in the basement of an administrative annex to quietly siphon surveillance videos from across the AU’s sprawling campus in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital.

The security breach was carried out by a Chinese hacking group nicknamed “Bronze President,” according to a five-page internal memo reviewed by Reuters. It said the affected cameras covered “AU offices, parking areas, corridors, and meeting rooms.”

“We cannot estimate the quantity and value of the data which have been stolen,” the memo continued, adding that while AU technicians had managed to interrupt the flow of data, the hackers could easily regain the upper hand.

“We are still weak to prevent another attack,” the memo said.

The alert, drafted in late January and circulated to senior officials, provides a glimpse of how world powers are jockeying for influence and visibility at the continent’s paramount pan-African organization. Some American and European officials have voiced concern as Beijing has stepped in to meet the AU’s needs – part of an Africa-wide shift that has seen China become the continent’s top creditor. Chinese workers built the AU’s showpiece new conference center in 2012 and Chinese technicians still help maintain the organization’s digital infrastructure.

The Chinese mission to the AU said in an email that “the AU side has not mentioned being hacked on any occasion” and that Africa and China are “good friends, partners and brothers.”

“We never interfere in Africa’s internal affairs and wouldn’t do anything that harms the interests of the African side,” the email said.

Repeated messages sent to AU spokesperson Ebba Kalondo asking about the January breach were marked as “read” but went unanswered.

Longstanding doubts over Beijing’s role at the AU spilled into the open in 2018, when French newspaper Le Monde reported here that AU employees had found that the servers at the new conference center were sending copies of their contents to Shanghai every night and that the building itself had been honeycombed with listening devices.

Both the AU and the Chinese government vehemently denied the report at the time, but a former AU official told Reuters the article in Le Monde was accurate and had put officials there on high alert over cyberespionage.

The former official said the latest breach was discovered following a tip from Japan’s Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT), which in a Jan. 17 email alerted AU officials to unusual traffic between the international organization’s network and a domain associated with Bronze President.

Koichiro Komiyama, who directs the global coordination division of Japan’s CERT, confirmed to Reuters that he sent the warning after a fellow researcher discovered the malicious traffic while picking through the hacking group’s old infrastructure.

The AU memo said that, within days of Komiyama’s email, the AU’s information technology team had traced the suspicious traffic to a set of servers in the basement of the organization’s Building C – part of an older complex across the road from the new conference center.

The memo said the hackers were able to siphon off “a huge volume of traffic” from the servers by hiding it in the regular flow of data leaving the AU’s network during business hours, even pausing their data theft during lunch.

Secureworks, an arm of Dell Technologies Inc which has been tracking Bronze President since 2018, confirmed that the malicious domain identified by Japan’s CERT was linked to the hackers.

Secureworks researcher Mark Osborn said his company had seen strong evidence that Bronze President operated from China, adding that it had been detected in several espionage campaigns targeting China’s neighbors, including Mongolia and India.

Any official protest over the spying is unlikely, according to the former AU official. He said China plays a critical role in keeping the organization running, including during an incident in June when part of the AU’s network was knocked out by a power failure and Chinese technicians swiftly repaired the damage.

For that reason, the former official expects that the surveillance camera incident – like the listening devices reported in 2018 – would be swept under the rug.

“Attacking the Chinese, for us, it’s a very bad idea,” he said.

 

Reporting by Raphael Satter; editing by Jonathan Weber and Edward Tobin