2026 is shaping up to be a year where overlapping crises, geopolitical rivalries, and fragile states collide. These are the most critical flashpoints ICG analysts warn could define the global security landscape in the coming year:

1. Venezuela The U.S. has launched a massive military buildup in the Caribbean, aiming to oust President Nicolás Maduro. With a blockade in effect and tensions rising, the risk of a protracted low-intensity conflict or regional chaos is high.

2. Sudan The war continues toward a de facto partition between the army and the Rapid Support Forces. Outside powers continue to fuel the fire, making a permanent ceasefire—and the return to civilian rule—an uphill battle.

3. Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions are peaking as Addis Ababa and Asmara trade accusations of meddling and territorial ambition. With Ethiopia seeking Red Sea access and Eritrea fearing for its sovereignty, the Horn of Africa sits on the edge of an all-out conflagration.

4. Mali and Burkina Faso In the Sahel, insurgencies are expanding despite the presence of Russian forces and military-led governments. The region faces a deepening humanitarian crisis as state authority continues to erode.

5. Ukraine The war has entered a perilous phase. While “shuttle diplomacy” from the U.S. administration attempts to find a deal, the risk remains that any agreement could leave Ukraine exposed to further Russian aggression.

6. Syria Following the fall of the old regime, Syria faces a fragile transition. While new leadership has received some sanctions relief, the country remains a tinderbox of sectarian tension and competing regional interests.

7. Israel-Palestine An “ugly ceasefire” persists in Gaza, with Palestinians living in dire conditions and Israel maintaining security control over much of the strip. Without a roadmap for reconstruction and political rights, the peace is extremely shaky.

8. Israel & the U.S. vs. Iran & the Houthis Following direct strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025, a precarious truce holds. However, any move by Iran to rebuild its missile or nuclear programs could trigger a much larger, more devastating regional war.

9. Myanmar The military junta has recently regained the upper hand against rebel forces, backed by Chinese support. The conflict remains far from over, leaving the Rohingya and other civilians caught in a cycle of displacement and violence.

10. Afghanistan-Pakistan Cross-border militant attacks and retaliatory airstrikes have brought these two neighbors to their worst diplomatic point in decades. With the Taliban and Islamabad at odds, the border remains a major site of potential escalation.

In 2026, the line between a fragile truce and a total collapse of order appears to be thinner than ever. You can read the full analysis here.