Tag Archive for: Tigray War

Chancellor Merkel calls for peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Tigray

Readout from the Press and Information Office of the Federal Government of Germany on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s telephone conversation with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Translation by Addis Standard.


Presse- und Informationsamt der Bundesregierung

Tuesday, February 02, 2021
Serial no.: 32
Issue year: 2021

The Spokesman of the German Government, Steffen Seibert, announces:

Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke on the phone [yesterday] with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali.

The Chancellor and her Ethiopian counterpart exchanged views on the domestic political situation in Ethiopia, regional security policy issues and questions of bilateral cooperation. The Chancellor stressed the importance of a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Tigray region and of providing humanitarian assistance to the affected people in the conflict area. Humanitarian aid organizations and the media must be granted free access to the Tigray region, she said.

They also discussed the economic and health situation in Ethiopia in light of the Covid19 pandemic.


Here is the Ethiopian Prime Ministe’s takeaway from their conversation,

 

Tigray crisis: Ethiopia region at risk of huge ‘humanitarian disaster’

BBC | Opposition parties in Ethiopia’s Tigray region have warned of a huge “humanitarian disaster” if aid is not delivered urgently.

The parties said people were already dying from hunger and urged the international community to intervene.

Ethiopia’s government says aid is being delivered and nearly 1.5 million people have been reached.

The parties also said 52,000 people had been killed since the conflict started in November.

They did not explain how they arrived at the estimate but said it included women, children and religious leaders.

The government has not given figures. It says it is waging a “law enforcement operation” against Tigray’s former ruling party.

Conflict broke out after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) seized federal military bases in the region following a breakdown in relations with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

About 100,000 Eritrean refugees who had been living in UN-run camps in Tigray have also been caught up in the conflict.

A spokesman for the UN refugee agency said they had received reports that some of them were eating tree barks and drinking water from puddles after being forced to flee their camps.

About two million people have been internally displaced in the conflict in Tigray. The government has heavily restricted access to the region for the media and aid agencies.

On Monday, the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, Jan Egeland, said he had “rarely seen an aid response so impeded” in the 40 years he had worked in the humanitarian field.

In a joint statement, three opposition parties – the Tigray Independence Party (TIP), Salsay Weyane Tigray, and National Congress of Great Tigray – said if food and medicine did not arrive quickly the “looming humanitarian disaster of biblical proportion” would become a “gruesome reality in Tigray”.

“Towns and villages have been demolished by blind artillery shelling. Our health and educational facilities have been looted and destroyed and, to the surprise of any sane mind, our religious institutions have also been attacked and their sacred possessions plundered,” the parties added.

The opposition parties also called for the immediate withdrawal of Ethiopian and Eritrean troops from the region, and for an independent investigation into alleged war crimes committed by all forces.

Last week, the US called for the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean troops. The state department said “credible reports” had emerged of their involvement in human rights abuses, including sexual violence and looting.

The Eritrean and Ethiopian governments have previously denied that Eritrean troops are in Tigray.

‘Threatening territorial integrity’

The TPLF had been the ruling party in Tigray, with an estimated 250,000 fighters under its command, for almost 30 years.

It was ousted from power on 28 November after Ethiopian government troops captured the regional capital, Mekelle.

Mr Abiy accused the TPLF of threatening the territorial integrity of Ethiopia, and of trying to overthrow his government by seizing military bases earlier that month.

The TPLF said it had captured the bases as a pre-emptive strike as it feared federal intervention in Tigray.

In August, it organised elections in Tigray in defiance of a decision taken at federal level to postpone all polls because of the coronavirus outbreak.

Mr Abiy’s government condemned the election as illegal, while the TPLF said his government was “illegitimate” and did not have a mandate to govern Ethiopia.

Tensions boiled over, leading to the outbreak of conflict.

Five Reasons why the UN Security Council needs to deal with the humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia

World Peace Foundation | Alex de Waal | 14.12.2020

Today, the UN Security Council members are expected to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Tigray.

It’s a matter for UN Security Council urgent business for several reasons.

First, it’s an internationalized crisis: there are over 45,000 refugees in Sudan and within weeks there could be three times that number. There are over 100,000 Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia, and the Eritrean army has overrun their camps and is reportedly forcing conscripting youth, while the Federal Government is proposing to send over 100 Eritreans who made it as far as Addis Ababa back to Tigray, likely into the hands of the Eritrean army.

Second, there’s little doubt that starvation crimes are being committed in Tigray. There is good reason to suppose that parties to the conflict—the Ethiopian federal forces and militia, the Tigrayan forces and the Eritrean army—are violating the prohibition on using starvation as a weapon. These violations demand an international investigation.

Third, Ethiopia will be asking international donors—including the United States, Europe and Japan, among others—to foot the bill. Just five years ago, Ethiopia was on the point of graduating from the status of famine-prone country, with its large-scale pathbreaking programs for food security. Not only is there a vast manmade food crisis enveloping Tigray, but it’s now deeply uncertain whether Ethiopia can muster the financial and institutional capacity to deal with a large-scale nationwide food security challenge such as that which threatened in 2015. Having invested heavily over the last 25 years in the achievements of Ethiopia’s pro-poor developmental state and famine prevention mechanisms, international aid donors have a legitimate interest in preventing relapse.

Fourth, the African Union has failed Ethiopia thus far. There has been no African Union Peace and Security Council meeting on the topic. South Africa discouraged the UN Security Council for discussing the conflict. The African Union envoys were rebuffed. Yesterday, Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok announced an emergency summit of the InterGovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) on Ethiopia. His initiative needs the highest level of international backing.

Fifth, under UN Security Council resolution 2417 of May 2018, the United Nations Secretary General is required to report swiftly to the Council on any situation of armed conflict that threatens widespread food insecurity. The Ethiopian and Eritrean war in Tigray is precisely such a scenario for enacting this provision.

Tigray Opposition Parties Assert 50,000-Plus Civilian Deaths

Associated Press | Cara Anna — A trio of opposition parties in Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region estimates that more than 50,000 civilians have been killed in the three-month conflict, and they urge the international community to intervene before a “humanitarian disaster of biblical proportion will become a gruesome reality.”

The statement posted Tuesday does not say where the estimate comes from, and the parties could not immediately be reached. Communication links remain challenging in much of the region, making it difficult to verify claims by any side.

No official death toll has emerged since the fighting began in early November between Ethiopian and allied forces and those of the Tigray region who dominated the government for almost three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018. Each side now views the other as illegitimate.

The opposition parties say the international community should ensure the immediate withdrawal of fighters including soldiers from neighboring Eritrea, who witnesses say are supporting Ethiopian forces. The parties also urge an independent investigation into the conflict, dialogue, more humanitarian aid and media access to “cover what is happening.”

Civilians throughout Tigray, a region of some 6 million people, have been dying from targeted attacks, crossfire, disease and lack of resources, according to witnesses. Even some of the new administrators appointed by Abiy’s government have warned that people are dying of starvation as vast areas beyond main roads and towns still cannot be reached.

The opposition parties assert that the hunger is man-made as cattle have been killed and raided, crops burned and homes looted and destroyed. The statement was signed by the Tigray Independence Party, the National Congress of Great Tigray and Salsay Weyane Tigray.

Their statement accuses Ethiopia’s government of “using hunger as a weapon to subdue Tigray since it has been obstructing international efforts for humanitarian assistance.” Ethiopia’s government, however, has asserted that aid is being delivered and nearly 1.5 million people have been reached.

The United Nations and others have pressed for more humanitarian access and a solution to a complicated system of clearances with a variety of authorities, including ones on the ground.

“In 40 years (as) a humanitarian, I’ve rarely seen an aid response so impeded,” the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, Jan Egeland, tweeted on Monday.

U.N. refugee chief Filippo Grandi after a visit to Tigray told reporters on Monday that the situation is “extremely grave.” He said his team had heard a “very strong appeal” from appointed authorities in Tigray and Ethiopian ministries for more international help, and he pointed out that the U.N. works in “northern Syria, in Yemen, in areas of high insecurity.”

The Tigray region hosted 96,000 refugees from Eritrea before the fighting, and Grandi said he had spoken to some who were caught in the crossfire and then resorted to “eating leaves” after being cut off from support for several weeks. Others were forcibly returned to Eritrea by Eritrean forces, he said. It was not clear how many.

Two of the refugees’ four camps remain inaccessible, and “most likely there is no refugee presence here anymore,” he said. Citing satellite imagery, the U.K.-based DX Open Network nonprofit this week reported further destruction at the Hitsats and Shimelba camps in recent weeks by unnamed armed groups, with humanitarian facilities among those targeted.

Up to 20,000 of the refugees have been “dispersed” into areas where humanitarian workers don’t have access, Grandi said.

The U.N. refugee chief also called for an independent, transparent investigation into alleged abuses. “The situation is very complex,” he said. “There has been a lot of crossfire, a lot of violations on all sides,” including Tigray-allied fighters.

Eritrean refugees caught in crossfire of Ethiopia’s Tigray war

AFP | They have survived gun battles, attempted abductions, attacks by angry militiamen and days-long treks to safety with nothing to eat but moringa leaves.

Yet Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia fear their suffering may not be over, as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed strains to end a brutal conflict in the northern region of Tigray that has rendered them uniquely vulnerable.

Nearly 100,000 refugees from Eritrea, an oppressive, authoritarian nation bordering Ethiopia to the north, were registered in four camps in Tigray when fighting erupted in November between Abiy’s government and the regional ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Two of those camps, Hitsats and Shimelba, were caught up in hostilities and remain inaccessible to the United Nations refugee agency and its Ethiopian counterpart, the Agency for Refugee and Returnee Affairs (ARRA).

The information vacuum has spurred dire speculation over the refugees’ fate.

The UN has sounded the alarm over reported targeted killings and abductions by Eritrean soldiers, whose role in the conflict is widely documented but officially denied by Addis Ababa and Asmara.

The US State Department last week cited “credible reports” of looting and sexual violence in the camps.

On his first trip to Ethiopia since the conflict began, UN refugees chief Filippo Grandi over the weekend visited Mai Aini, one of two camps in southern Tigray where the UN has regained access.

The camp is now home to hundreds of refugees from Hitsats, some of whom told AFP of the horrors they left behind.

“Most of the people, if you search this camp, they’ll start crying when they talk about what happened,” said Girmay, who like other refugees insisted on using only one name, fearing reprisals.

“Our friends could be alive or dead. We don’t know.”

– ‘They came and killed’-

The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for almost three decades — it was in power when Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a border war that killed tens of thousands between 1998 and 2000 and led to a two-decade stalemate.

After taking office in 2018, Abiy initiated a surprise rapprochement with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, a move that won him the Nobel Peace Prize the following year.

Yet Isaias and the TPLF — whose region borders Eritrea — remain bitter enemies, heightening the risks for Eritrean refugees caught up in the conflict.

Once fighting reached Hitsats in late November, pro-TPLF militiamen targeted refugees in reprisal killings after suffering battlefield setbacks against Eritrean troops, several refugees told AFP.

On one morning the militiamen shot dead nine young Eritrean men outside a church, they said.

Pro-TPLF forces based themselves out of Hitsats for weeks, forbidding hungry residents from going out in search of food and shooting dead several who tried anyway.

“At first we couldn’t believe it because they speak the same language as us,” Girmay said of the pro-TPLF forces.

“Before we are friends… Suddenly they came and killed.”

Eritrean soldiers also committed abuses, the refugees said, arresting dozens of people, likely more, and whisking them to an unknown destination.

“The Eritrean soldiers caught some people and started asking them questions. I’ve counted 26 or 27,” one refugee said.

“The next day they took them somewhere else. We don’t know where they are.”

Many refugees fled Eritrea to avoid its notorious system of compulsory national service, which inspires descriptions of the nation as an “open-air prison”, and among their greatest fears is to be forced back.

Addressing reporters at the end of his visit Monday night, the UN’s Grandi said he had come away with “a more complex sense” of who committed abuses.

“There were very precise allegations regarding TPLF elements. There were very specific allegations regarding Eritrean forces present — possibly or surely present — in the region,” he said.

Ethiopia’s government is investigating abuses and will try to account for all of Hitsats’ pre-conflict population, which it estimates at around 11,000, said Tesfahun Gobezay, ARRA’s executive director.

“With regard to Eritrean soldiers taking Eritrean refugees, we don’t have any solid evidence yet,” Tesfahun told AFP.

-‘How can I feel safe?’-

Eritrean forces assumed control of Hitsats in early January and forced those remaining in the camp to evacuate, refugees said.

“They threatened to kill us and people were afraid,” said one refugee now in Addis Ababa, who asked that his name not be used.

Roughly 3,000 refugees from Hitsats and the other inaccessible northern camp, Shimelba, have since reached the two camps in southern Tigray, many travelling by foot with no water and only leaves for food.

In Mai Aini some new arrivals complained of poor access to clean water and of not having a place to sleep.

But their biggest concern, shared by some longtime residents, was for their security, with several worrying that pro-TPLF militias could attack the camp despite an extensive federal military presence nearby.

“How can I feel safe here?” said Natnael, who has lived in Mai Aini since he was a boy. “There are many militias around the camp.”

ARRA’s Tesfahun said the southern camps were safe and that progress had been made in re-establishing basic services.

Grandi, for his part, called for a more efficient system of distributing aid, saying the current situation in Tigray was “very grave” and that “without further action it will get worse.”

It remains to be seen what has become of the two camps in northern Tigray that are still out of contact.

Satellite imagery shows widespread damage to both, suggesting a campaign to destroy them, the British-based investigations firm DX Open Network said.

“There are clear and consistent patterns across both camps over a two-month period demonstrating that these refugee camps were systematically targeted despite their protected humanitarian status,” it said in a statement.

Ethiopia updates debt sustainability assessment with IMF help

NAIROBI (Reuters) – Ethiopia is updating its debt sustainability assessment with International Monetary Fund help and will then talk to official creditors, its finance ministry said in an apparent attempt to allay market concerns over a possible restructuring of sovereign debt.

On Friday, a Finance Ministry official told Reuters that Ethiopia planned to seek a restructuring of its sovereign debt under a new G20 common framework and was examining all available options.

This pushed its government bonds to their biggest ever daily fall and analysts said restructuring concerns could spill over to hit other borrowers.

The ministry said in a statement on Monday that once the discussions with official creditors were complete, it will inform other creditors of the need for broader debt treatment.


Read More “EU suspends Ethiopian Budget Support Over Tigray Crisis” 


It also said it was confident that possible implementation of debt treatment under a new G2 framework will address vulnerabilities and preserve long-term access to international financial markets.

Under the new G20 framework, debtor countries are expected to seek an IMF programme to put their economies onto a firmer footing and negotiate a debt reduction from both public and private creditors.


Read About “Tigray War


Ethiopia has a $1 billion dollar bond outstanding, though only $66 million worth of interest payments on the issue are coming due this year.

Finnish EU envoy to investigate ‘dire’ Ethiopia war

EU Observer | The security situation in Ethiopia was “dire”, as Finnish foreign minister Pekka Haavisto prepared to travel to the region on an EU fact-finding mission.

Finnish FM

Finnish foreign minister Pekka Haavisto | Wikimedia Commons

“Nearly three months after the start of the conflict … the security situation in Tigray [a region of Ethiopia] remains dire, with reports of localised fighting especially in rural areas,” Haavisto told EUobserver.

“There is news circulating that hundreds of thousands of people have yet to receive [humanitarian] assistance,” he said.

But “access to the affected regions remains limited due to the challenging security environment and bureaucratic obstacles,” he added.

War broke out last year between the government of prime minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a local power which defied his rule.

The TPLF leader, Debretsion Gebremichael, said on Sunday (1 February) that the Ethiopian army was guilty of “genocide” and “massacres”.

He also said three foreign powers were fighting on Ethiopia’s side, while urging the international community to investigate “the atrocities” he spoke of.

An Ethiopian government spokeswoman told the BBC that Gebremichael’s words were “the delusions of a criminal clique” and accused the TPLF of “horrendous crimes” in return.

Ethiopia has also denied that Eritrean and Somalian forces, as well as Emirati drones, were fighting on its side.

But the US state department has confirmed that Eritrea was involved.

And Tigrayans who fled to neighbouring Sudan have told Human Rights Watch, an NGO, that Ethiopian forces were guilty of indiscriminate shelling and extrajudicial killings.

For his part, Finland’s Haavisto said: “The regional impacts of the Tigray conflict are of growing concern”.

“Reports indicate that more than 58,000 refugees have fled to Sudan and tensions in the border areas are growing dangerously,” he added.

The Nordic diplomat planned to go to “Ethiopia and its neighbouring regions” in the “next few weeks”, he said, after EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell tasked him with the mission last week.

Haavisto is to travel with Alexander Rondos, an EU special representative for the Horn of Africa.

An internal EU report, last November, said Europe feared “the unravelling of the Ethiopian state” and the creation of millions of refugees if the war got worse.

And it feared instability could spread to neighbouring Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia.

The Ethiopia conflict is just one of several in the EU’s southern neighbourhood, including ones in Libya, Israel, the Sahel, and Syria.

Meanwhile, Europe’s eastern flank is also becoming increasingly volatile.

Warfare recently erupted in Azerbaijan and goes on unabated in eastern Ukraine.

A political crisis in Belarus and mass-scale demonstrations in Russia have also posed questions about the future of the ruling regimes there.

Russia diplomacy
Russia, on Sunday, arrested another 4,000 people in nationwide protests calling on authorities to free opposition hero Alexei Navalny.

“Russian citizens’ right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression should be respected,” Haavisto told EUobserver.

Borrell, the EU top diplomat, is himself going to Moscow at the end of this week to urge Navalny’s release and to discuss “strategic” issues.

And Haavisto said it was important for the EU to keep up Russia diplomacy despite the deteriorating ties.

He also highlighted the need for “people-to-people contacts” between ordinary Russians and Europeans, “which have taken a big setback from the Covid pandemic”.

“We have a lot of experience on this, as Finland issues the highest number of Schengen visas in Russia,” Haavisto said, referring to Europe’s ‘Schengen’ free-travel area.

How War in Ethiopia Impacts Red Sea and Horn of Africa Power Politics: The Battle in Tigray and Beyond

Terrorism Monitor | Michael Horton

Ethiopia is a key prize in the scramble for influence and power in the Horn of Africa and broader Red Sea region. With its natural resources, population of 110 million, and well-equipped military, Ethiopia has become an African power. The nation’s capital, Addis Ababa, moreover, hosts the African Union headquarters, and the country is one of the few African nations never to be colonized. [1] Ethiopia has accordingly long played an outsized role in African and sub-regional politics.

For much of the last decade, successive Ethiopian governments have navigated treacherous regional and global politics by maintaining relations with diverse geopolitical actors. On the global level, Ethiopia has been—and remains—an important U.S. ally, while China accounts for the largest volume of foreign direct investment into Ethiopia. [2] At the regional level, Ethiopia has avoided becoming entangled in the Gulf’s acrimonious power politics between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and their two main adversaries, Qatar and Turkey. All four of those countries nevertheless provide Ethiopia with financial aid and private investment across multiple areas, especially its important agricultural sector. Turkey and the UAE, despite being regional rivals, also both maintain high-level military-to-military relations with Ethiopia.

The ongoing war in Ethiopia’s northernmost Tigray region will test Ethiopia’s strategy of balancing the interests of outside powers with its own need for domestic investment. At the same time, the war, which began on November 4, will present these same outside powers with new opportunities to enhance their relationship with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (East African, November 7). However, those and other outside powers will also have ample opportunity to create instability in Ethiopia if they so choose.

Ethiopian Foreign Policy from Balancing to Entanglement

The war in Tigray pits the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) against the Ethiopian government. The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for much of the last three decades, is a formidable political and military power in its own right. While the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has made quick progress in capturing major cities in the Tigray region, this was likely due to strategic withdrawals by the TPLF (Nazret, November 19). Such a strategy aligns with the TPLF’s long history of guerrilla warfare.

Barring some negotiated settlement between the TPLF and the Ethiopian government, the war in Tigray will likely evolve into an insurgency that will spill beyond the borders of Tigray. At the same time, the war in Tigray, even if it is contained to TPLF redoubts in the mountains, will attract the interest of outside powers. This is already the case with Eritrea, which has deployed troops within Ethiopia’s borders to help the ENDF bottle up the TPLF. In addition to its three decade-long battle for independence from Ethiopia, Eritrea and Ethiopia fought over disputed border towns from 1998-2000. Eritrea, which was once allied with the TPLF, is now supporting Abiy Ahmed, who signed a peace agreement with Eritrean president Isaias Afewerki in 2018 that ended the two countries’ longstanding border conflict (Addis Fortune, September 22, 2018).

The involvement of Eritrean forces in Ethiopia’s war in Tigray could be a harbinger of things to come. The UAE, which maintains military bases in Eritrea, may also be aiding Abiy Ahmed’s government. Conflicting and unconfirmed reports, for example, indicate the possible deployment of UAE-operated drones from the UAE base in Assab, Eritrea to Tigray. [3] The UAE, which is locked in a cold war with Qatar and Turkey, could try to enhance its relationship with Ethiopia by supporting its fight against the TPLF at the cost of Ethiopia’s relationship with Qatar and Turkey.

Turkey, however, like the UAE, enjoys excellent military-to-military relations with Ethiopia. Due to Ethiopia’s involvement in Somalia, with which it shares a long and largely unguarded border, Turkey works closely with the Ethiopian military and intelligence services. Turkey also regards Somalia, where it maintains its largest overseas military base, as the lynchpin in its strategy to preserve and grow its influence in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region (Terrorism Monitor, November 20). In mid-November, Ethiopia withdrew large numbers of troops it had deployed in its ethnically Somali Ogaden region and Somalia itself to redeploy them to Tigray (Somali Affairs, November 3). Somalia-based al-Shabaab, therefore, will benefit from gaps left by the Ethiopian forces, and the relationship between Ethiopia and Turkey may deepen as Ankara seizes on opportunities to help Addis Ababa bolster security along its border with Somalia. Turkey also has greater ability than either the UAE or Saudi Arabia to offer the Ethiopian military what it lacks and most desires: drone technology and the expertise to use it (Terrorism Monitor, October 13).

Further afield, China, which has invested billions of dollars in almost every economic sector in Ethiopia, will act to protect those investments. China will make every effort to support stability in Ethiopia. Given China’s pragmatic foreign policy in Africa and in Ethiopia in particular, this support will be cost-effective and possibly covert. There is little doubt that China will aid Abiy Ahmed’s efforts to contain and defeat the TPLF. However, such aid will, as is customary with Chinese foreign policy, come with strings attached. [4]

Water Wars and Instability

On the other side of the equation, Ethiopia’s regional rivals will view limited instability in Ethiopia as a benefit. Ethiopia has completed its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and, as of July 2020, began filling the dam’s immense reservoir (Nazret, July 16). Egypt views the dam, which impedes the flow of water into the Nile’s primary tributary, the Blue Nile, as an existential threat. [5] Thus far, the two governments have failed to reach an agreement over how they will share the Nile’s water resources.

Over this summer, Egypt reportedly proposed to build a base in the unrecognized Republic of Somaliland (The East African, July 28). It is unlikely the government of Somaliland will accept the proposal. However, it reflects Egypt’s interest in enhancing its relations with other nations in the Horn of Africa and expanding its military’s regional reach as a way of checking what it sees as growing Ethiopian power.

For its part, Sudan, which will benefit from cheap electricity and flood control provided by the GERD, has been more willing to negotiate with Ethiopia on the dam. However, Egypt wields considerable influence in Sudan. The war in Tigray, especially if it is prolonged, may undermine the Ethiopian government’s ability to press forward with what Egypt views as an uncompromising agreement on GERD and hinder Sudan’s possible accommodation with Ethiopia on the dam.

Ethiopia’s Outlook

Ethiopia’s successful foreign policy, which is based on balancing the interests of rival countries in its natural resources and strategic position in exchange for access and investment, could be compromised by sustained war in Tigray. The TPLF is a sophisticated political and military organization that possesses the knowledge and institutional memory that will allow it to engage rival internal and outside powers. Abiy Ahmed’s government will find it requires more and new types of aid to deal with the challenges posed by the TPLF. Receipt of this aid, be it military or financial, will constrain Ethiopia’s nimble and independent foreign policy.

Notes

[1] Ethiopia was occupied by the Italians from 1936-1941. See Jeff Pearce, Prevail: The Inspiring Story of Ethiopia’s Victory over Mussolini’s Invasion (Skyhorse Publishing, 2014).

[2] In 2019, China accounted for the largest volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ethiopia, followed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

[3] There are conflicting and unconfirmed reports in Western media on the possible deployment of UAE-operated drones from the UAE’s base in Assab, Eritrea to Tigray. See, for example: https://www.voanews.com/africa/expert-no-evidence-uae-drones-are-being-used-ethiopias-tigray-conflict; https://www.bellingcat.com/news/rest-of-world/2020/11/19/are-emirati-armed-drones-supporting-ethiopia-from-an-eritrean-air-base/; and https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-conflict-idUSKBN27V05M. While deployment of UAE-operated and Chinese-manufactured Wing Loong II drones would be consistent with the UAE’s deployment of drones over Yemen and Libya, it is unlikely at this stage. What is more likely is that the UAE is using surveillance drones within Eritrean territory to monitor incursions into Eritrean territory by TPLF forces.

[4] This is not to say that other countries providing aid, like the United States, do not also expect some kind benefit in return. However, China is particularly adept at incorporating countries into its financial and political web at relatively minimal expense to the Chinese treasury. See Tom Burgis, The Looting Machine: Warlords, Oligarch, Corporations, Smuggler, and the Theft of Africa’s Wealth (Public Affairs, 2016).

[5] For an overview of the complexity surrounding GERD and downstream riparian environments, see: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19089-x

Ethiopia accused of using ethnic profiling to target Tigrayans

Financial Times | Daughter of former PM says she was prevented from leaving country because of her heritage.

The daughter of a former Ethiopian prime minister has accused the government of preventing her from leaving the country because of her Tigrayan heritage, highlighting the ethnic divisions that continue to split the nation in the wake of brutal fighting between government and Tigray forces in the northern region.

Semhal Meles, the 32-year-old daughter of Meles Zenawi, who was Ethiopia’s prime minister for 17 years until his death in 2012, said she was prevented from boarding a US-bound flight from Addis Ababa on Tuesday despite having a valid passport, visa and ticket, in what she called a “curtailing” of her constitutional rights.

In an emailed statement to journalists, she said officials told her she did not have paperwork clearing her for travel, required by anyone who had been previously arrested. Ms Meles was briefly detained by security forces in December.

“To the best of my knowledge I haven’t been included in any wanted list, no arrest warrant has so far been issued against me nor have I appeared in court,” Ms Meles said. “I was illegally and unlawfully profiled.”

Ms Meles’s claims echo those of other Tigrayans, who say they have been prevented from travelling or dismissed from work since the government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a military attack on Tigray in November last year. The government said the move was a “law enforcement operation” after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front — which effectively ran the country until 2018, when Mr Abiy took power — attacked federal troops.

Hundreds have died in the fighting and thousands of refugees have fled across the border to Sudan. There have been reports, mostly unverifiable because of a news blackout in Tigray, of atrocities by both sides. Forces loyal to the TPLF have been accused of a massacre of 600 civilians, mainly from rival region Amhara, while refugees have reported executions of civilians by pro-government Amhara militia.

Ms Meles accused Addis Ababa of “the weaponisation of rape and hunger, the targeting of dense urban populations for aerial bombardment, wanton destruction of public infrastructure and widespread looting”.

The government said on Thursday that her account was unreliable. “For three decades, the TPLF has laboured to satisfy an unbridled thirst for absolute power and self-enrichment, fanning flames of ethnic division and hatred,” an official said. “Average Ethiopians . . . have paid dearly for this.”

The government has accused the TPLF of being a “criminal clique”, sponsoring terrorism and fomenting ethnic violence. More than 100 party members have been placed on a wanted list, while senior TPLF officials such as Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s former foreign minister, have died in unclear circumstances during the conflict.

Mr Abiy’s government has denied targeting Tigrayans on the basis of ethnicity, saying its dispute is with the TPLF. In September last year, the TPLF went ahead with a regional poll that Addis Ababa said was illegal, after the government postponed national elections amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Before the recent fighting, Mr Meles, who led a guerrilla war that toppled the previous Marxist Derg regime in 1991, was seen as a hero in Tigray. But his legacy remains divisive.

Under his leadership, Ethiopia was widely praised for rapid growth, but the TPLF also oversaw a repressive police state.

The former premier is seen as the father of so-called ethno-nationalism, under which power was devolved to nine ethnically defined regions, an arrangement enshrined in the 1995 constitution. An item of faith for some Ethiopians, the constitution is seen by others as sowing violent divisions.

Ethnic violence, including the burning of churches and mosques, has swelled in Ethiopia since 2016, leading to the internal displacement of 3m people. Mr Abiy has put forward a philosophy of “strength through diversity”, intending to bind Ethiopia under one national identity. But his opponents say this hides an effort to water down regional autonomy and centralise power.

Describing her arrest last year, Ms Meles said 20 federal police officers armed with machine guns arrived at the house in Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, where she was staying. She was taken to a “makeshift prison” for 48 hours, she said, adding that she was denied access to a lawyer and never told the reason for her detention.

One officer threatened to “sever” her head, Ms Meles said, and along with the son of a former TPLF general who had also been arrested, “we were put on display for members of the federal police and army in an attempt to celebrate the capture of the junta’s children”.

“My dual crime, it seems, is being born into a political family with a Tigrayan identity,” she added.

Ms Meles said the Tigray people viewed November’s operation as an attack on their right to self-determination. “Every Tigrayan family paid a price to enshrine these rights within our constitution,” she said. “And no one here is prepared to betray the sacrifices made by their forefathers.”

Biden Administration Faces Mounting Pressure to Act in Ethiopian Conflict

The Washington Free Bacon | Millions in peril of starvation in Ethiopia’s Tigray region

Hundreds of protesters gathered outside the State Department Thursday to demand the Biden administration take immediate action in Ethiopia to combat a humanitarian crisis that has left thousands dead.

The protesters called on newly confirmed secretary of state Antony Blinken to prioritize the deteriorating situation in Ethiopia where troops from the federal government—as well as troops from neighboring Eritrea and Somalia—have cracked down on the Tigray region. Protesters said immediate aid is necessary to prevent millions of Tigray residents from starving to death, presenting the days-old Biden administration with its first international crisis. Attendee Makea Araya said the crisis has placed millions in danger and displaced millions more.

“We need international actors, we need the Biden administration to take action and allow humanitarian access into the region,” Araya said.

The conflict puts millions of lives at stake and threatens the religious and cultural heritage of the world’s largest religions. Tensions between Tigray, a region in northern Ethiopia, and the federal government came to a head when Tigray’s leading political party refused to join the Ethiopian government’s new coalition in 2019. In early November, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent troops into the region, sparking violent clashes with the region’s militia force. While the crisis has been raging for months, limited information has emerged about its true scale since communications have been cut off in the region and foreign media and human-rights watchdogs have not been able to access the region. Reports of the massacre of religious worshipers in a famous Oriental Orthodox church and violence across the region are mounting, however.

Selome Girma, a protester, told the Washington Free Beacon that 4.5 million people are in dire need of humanitarian aid and are being cut off from the outside world. Tigray has been plagued by several communications blackouts during the months-long conflict, which the government has blamed on cyberattacks. Girma said the United States should lead the way to break the embargo and allow outside observers into Tigray.

“We are asking the United States to please humbly try to get some sort of international investigation of what’s going on in Tigray,” Girma said.

She said religious and cultural history is also in danger of being destroyed in the conflict. The region is home to several major Christian and Islamic historic sites, including the site of the massacre in the Oriental Orthodox church, which is reputed to be the location of the Ark of the Covenant.

The State Department, which did not return a request for comment, has remained vague on how it will approach the crisis. The department has released a statement calling for foreign troops allied with Ethiopia to leave the region immediately. The administration, however, has yet to lay out a strategy in the event that foreign troops remain in the region. The statement also called for “full, safe and unhindered humanitarian access” to the region, but the administration did not elaborate on how it would ensure this access.

Blinken also tweeted about the conflict in November and briefly mentioned the issue during his confirmation hearing, saying that the United States needed to do more in Africa. He called for more humanitarian access and said he was concerned that the violence could destabilize the region.

Ferez Timay, a longtime Washington, D.C., resident who was born in Tigray, said the Biden administration must do more than issue public declarations.

“We want the Biden administration to act soon because as the hours go, the minutes go, it’s the difference between life and death for the people of Tigray,” Timay said. “We want the Biden administration to act right away.”

The White House did not return a request for comment.