Tag Archive for: Tigray War

In Ethiopia’s digital battle over the Tigray region, facts are casualties

/1 Comment/in , , , /by

The Washingtonpost | Alexi Drew and Claire Wilmot | Claims about disinformation may be undermining online activism.

Nearly three months have passed since the conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) began. Despite Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s assurance that the military operation ended in late November, the conflict in Tigray is far from over. U.N. officials this week cited reports that Ethiopian troops may not have the region under their command, and warned of grave food shortages, calling for the government to allow aid workers to enter the region.

On social media, pro- and anti-government groups continue to vie for control of the conflict narrative. Abiy released a statement on Feb. 2 encouraging Ethiopians to launch an offensive against the TPLF’s distortions and “lies” in the international arena. Our analysis of over 500,000 tweets related to Tigray helps explain the intensifying information conflict.

We collected and analyzed tweets between Nov. 4 and Jan. 20 to try to understand the kinds of information being circulated, and the effects of different messaging campaigns. We found that both sides are quick to accuse the other of spreading intentionally false information — though actual disinformation accounts for a surprisingly small proportion of tweets about the conflict.

Ethiopia’s conflict continues online

Knowing what’s really going on in Tigray’s conflict is difficult, given a communications blackout in much of the region. The government has also not allowed humanitarian access to areas that reportedly have experienced atrocities or are in urgent need of assistance. It is in this opaque information environment that people have taken to Twitter.

Pro-Tigray activism online

#StandWithTigray is a central source of activism for pro-Tigray campaigns. Its website shares instructions for using Twitter, along with pre-written content for followers to share. Their online presence can broadly be divided into three categories: “old” and “new” activist accounts; and accounts with opaque credentials.

“Old” activist accounts are largely based in Ethiopia, Europe and North America. Although their activism does not necessarily predate the conflict, their Twitter accounts often do. They demonstrate a high degree of digital literacy, posting lots of original content and engaging with other users.

“New” activist accounts were created throughout the conflict. We found over 3,000 such accounts between November and the end of January. These accounts demonstrate a low level of digital literacy, few followers and short-term engagement.

Accounts with opaque credentials claim expertise or positions aimed at boosting their credibility. They claim to be academics or aid workers but have little or no online presence beyond Twitter, making their credentials difficult to verify. These accounts may be problematic because they can obtain significant “reach” based on unsubstantiated claims.

Do these tweets contain disinformation and misinformation?

Our analysis showed that the majority of content produced by the #StandWithTigray campaign is digital activism, which seeks to raise international awareness about the conflict. The #StandwithTigray campaign is organized similarly to many other social justice campaigns on social media. Pre-written tweets build momentum around hashtags and connect to potential influencers like foreign officials, U.N. agencies or foreign ministries. This is a standard approach for activists, who usually don’t have the resources to employ the kinds of PR firms that many governments rely on to manage information (and disinformation) strategies.

It’s important to distinguish between disinformation, which is the intentional spread of false or misleading information, and misinformation, which is unintentional. When false claims could be read as intentional — like when TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael reported that Ethiopian forces had bombed the Tekeze dam — it’s often tough to verify information because of communications blackouts or limited physical access. Most who go on to spread that information have no means of verifying what they are sharing. Combating the spread of false information would require opening access to all areas of Tigray.

Pro-government information campaigns

The government has the advantage of being able to channel strategic messages through high-profile or official government accounts with very large followings. This means they are able to spread information widely without relying heavily on new accounts or copy-and-paste campaigns.

Pro-government online activism tends to be more responsive than proactive. The #UnityForEthiopia website, which appeared in response to #StandWithTigray, similarly includes instructions for creating Twitter accounts and has a repository of pre-written tweets. We found that new accounts created between November and January were responsible for 30 percent of all #UnityForEthiopia tweets during the two most active days of the campaign — Jan. 1 and Jan. 6.

A blurry information environment

By blocking communications and access to Tigray, the government helped create conditions where disinformation and misinformation can thrive. At the start of the military incursion into Tigray, pro-government accounts and government officials warned of a “Digital Woyane,” a TPLF-funded effort to undermine government actions in the region. In December, Ethiopia’s Information Network Security Agency claimed that the TPLF was producing over 20,000 tweets containing disinformation daily — a finding that is not supported by our data set. This narrative gained significant traction, with pro-government activists labeling almost all tweets about potential government wrongdoing as TPLF-funded disinformation.

The government’s State of Emergency Fact Check account, for example, responded to examples of misinformation spread by pro-Tigray accounts by issuing corrective statements, co-opting the work of independent fact-checkers. The government’s strategy seems to be to aimed at undermining the credibility of its critics, while sometimes combating pro-Tigray campaigns with their own campaigns.

What’s really happening in Tigray?

People come to digital activism with a wide range of interests and objectives — many want to raise awareness and advocate for solutions, while others may be trying to mislead or pursue political agendas. It’s clear that both sides in the Tigray conflict are using social media to sway global public opinion about the situation in the region, but very little independent information is emerging from Tigray at present. Currently, pro-Tigray campaigners have started spreading the hashtag #AllowAccessToTigray.

Our data so far does not support government claims that pro-Tigray Twitter campaigns are spreading significant amounts of disinformation, at least not on Twitter, the focus of our study. Pro-Tigray campaigns do produce higher volumes of tweets, which helps compete with the legitimacy and reach of government accounts. Government accounts, with their higher reach, can reframe tweets containing misinformation as intentional disinformation, undermining pro-Tigray campaigns.

Like everyone else, the government has the right to contest inaccurate claims, and may have reason to fear the spread of false information in this conflict. However, curtailing access to Tigray means that reliable evidence is scarce.

Increasingly troubling reports of humanitarian emergencies and international law violations are emerging from Tigray. As both sides seek to amplify their narratives, the importance of access and independent verification increases.

Dr. Alexi Drew is a research associate at the Policy Institute at Kings College London, an associate fellow at the Global Network on Extremism and Technology (GNET), and an executive manager at the European Cyber Conflict Research Initiative. Follow her on Twitter @CyberAlexi.

Claire Wilmot is a PhD candidate at the London School of Economics and a research officer at the UK Research and Innovation’s GCRF Gender, Justice and Security Hub. Follow her on Twitter @claireLwilmot.

Ethiopia Faces a New Crisis

/0 Comments/in , , , /by

Bloomberg | First there was a war, now Ethiopia faces a debt crisis.

The nation’s request to restructure its external debt under a Group-of-20 program highlights how much circumstances have changed for the country and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in just over a year.

In 2019, Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize for ending two decades of conflict with Eritrea. After coming to power in 2018, he was hailed for pledging to open up the economy and create more space for democratic expression.

The coronavirus outbreak and a war with the rebellious Tigray region, have stifled that. Little progress has been made on privatization, and civilian casualties and displacement in Tigray has seen the leader of one of Africa’s fastest growing economies condemned internationally.

Now the country is worried about meeting its debt obligations and its announcement that it’s discussing liabilities with official lenders has sparked panic among private creditors. The country’s Eurobonds plunged the most on record last week.

“The World Bank has stepped in to fill the gap” in the past, said Mark Bohlund, a senior credit research analyst at REDD Intelligence. That’s “become more politically challenging in the wake of alleged human-rights abuses committed during the war in Tigray,” he said.

For now, there isn’t an immediate way out for Abiy.

The coronavirus has slashed demand for the country’s horticulture and textile exports and tourism has ground to a halt.

The war, which threatens to drag on in the form of guerrilla resistance, hasn’t helped.

UN still hoping for humanitarian access to Tigray

/0 Comments/in , /by

UN (US) (AFP) | Every member of the UN Security Council called for increased aid during a closed-door meeting Wednesday to discuss the humanitarian situation in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, according to diplomats.

The meeting had been requested by Ireland, Estonia, France, Norway, Britain and the United States.

“Everyone said there should be more humanitarian access,” one diplomat said under condition of anonymity, though no official statement was released after the discussions.

There was never meant to be a declaration passed, according to the same diplomat, though another said the idea was abandoned because African members of the council had said they would refuse to vote for one, deeming it unproductive.

Meetings on the situation in Tigray have been few and far between since the Ethiopian military operation began in November, with African countries in particular preferring to treat the conflict as a domestic matter.

But Western powers have argued that the influx of refugees into neighboring Sudan was a humanitarian crisis requiring international intervention.

The Security Council also failed to produce a declaration after other closed-door meetings on November 24 and December 14.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in mid-December announced two deals with Ethiopian authorities that should have allowed access to the country.

But opportunities to deliver aid remain fragile, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Wednesday.

“Very little is being allowed in,” he said.

“What we need is to be able to just get in there in an unfettered manner without having to, I guess, negotiate for every truck, for every box.”

“We work cooperatively with the government, and it’s their country … we have to go through them, and that’s the way it should be,” Dujarric said.

“But there is a grave humanitarian need in Tigray, and at this point, we’re not able to reach the people that need to be reached.”

High-level UN figures visited Ethiopia this week, including the high commissioner for refugees Filippo Grandi and UN undersecretary-general Gilles Michaud — while a visit from World Food Program chief David Beasley is expected in the coming days, according to diplomats — to try to gain access to refugee camps.

Akshaya Kumar of the NGO Human Rights Watch said: “The Security Council should hold a public session followed by a strong resolution demanding an end to aid obstruction and immediate investigation of war crimes” in Ethiopia.

UN: Situation in Ethiopia’s Tigray now ‘extremely alarming

/0 Comments/in , , , /by

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Life for civilians in Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region has become “extremely alarming” as hunger grows and fighting remains an obstacle to reaching millions of people with aid, the United Nations says in a new report.

The conflict that has shaken one of Africa’s most powerful and populous countries — a key U.S. security ally in the Horn of Africa — has killed thousands of people and is now in its fourth month. But little is known about the situation for most of Tigray’s 6 million people, as journalists are blocked from entering, communications are patchy and many aid workers struggle to obtain permission to enter.

One challenge is that Ethiopia may no longer control up to 40% of the Tigray region, the U.N. Security Council was told in a closed-door session this week. Ethiopia and allied fighters have been pursuing the now-fugitive Tigray regional government that once dominated Ethiopia’s government for nearly three decades.

Now soldiers from Eritrea are deeply involved on the side of Ethiopia, even as Addis Ababa denies their presence. Eritrea on Friday rejected “false and presumptive allegations” after the U.S. Embassy there posted a statement online about the need for Eritrean forces to leave.

On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was the latest to pressure Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed directly, urging the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner in a phone call to allow “immediate, full and unhindered” aid access to Tigray before more people die.

Abiy’s brief statement on the call didn’t mention Tigray. Neither did his statements on calls this week with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel as European countries also express concern over one of the world’s newest crisis zones. Neighboring Sudan and Somalia could be sucked in, experts have warned.

The new U.N. humanitarian report released late Thursday includes a map showing most of the Tigray region marked as “inaccessible” for humanitarian workers. It says the security situation remains “volatile and unpredictable” more than two months after Abiy’s government declared victory.

The aid response remains “drastically inadequate” with little access to the vast rural population off the main roads, the report says, even as Ethiopia’s government has said well over 1 million people in Tigray have been reached with assistance. Some aid workers have reported having to negotiate access with a range of armed actors, even Eritrean ones.

Civilians have suffered. “Reports from aid workers on the ground indicate a rising in acute malnutrition across the region,” the new report says. “Only 1 percent of the nearly 920 nutrition treatment facilities in Tigray are reachable.”

Starvation has become a major concern. “Many households are expected to have already depleted their food stocks, or are expected to deplete their food stocks in the next two months,” according to a new report posted Thursday by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, which is funded and managed by the U.S.

The report said more parts of central and eastern Tigray likely will enter Emergency Phase 4, a step below famine, in the coming weeks.

Health care in the region is “alarmingly limited,” with just three of Tigray’s 11 hospitals functioning and nearly 80% of health centers not functional or accessible, the U.N. report says. Aid workers have said many health centers have been looted, hit by artillery fire or destroyed.

Large parts of two camps that once hosted thousands of refugees from nearby Eritrea have been systematically destroyed, according to analysis of satellite images by the U.K.-based DX Open Network nonprofit. Now some 5,000 of the refugees who have made their way to the community of Shire “are living in dire conditions, many sleeping in an open field on the outskirts of the town, with no water and no food,” the U.N. report says.

Visiting U.N. refugee chief Filippo Grandi this week urged Ethiopia to allow access for independent investigators to probe alleged widespread human rights abuses, calling the overall situation in Tigray “extremely grave.”

US urges Ethiopia’s PM to allow ‘immediate’ help to Tigray

/0 Comments/in , , , /by

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a call with Ethiopia’s prime minister on Thursday expressed “grave concern” about the crisis in the embattled Tigray region and urged “immediate, full and unhindered humanitarian access to prevent further loss of life,” a U.S. spokesman said.

There was no immediate comment from Ethiopian officials.

The call is the latest this week that world leaders have held with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as Ethiopia faces growing pressure to open Tigray to journalists, independent investigators and far more humanitarian aid.

The Tigray conflict, which has entered its fourth month, remains largely in the shadows. Thousands of people have been killed as Ethiopian and allied forces fight those of the now-fugitive Tigray government that once dominated the country’s government for nearly three decades. Most of the population of 6 million need emergency aid.

Abiy also has spoken this week with the French president and German chancellor, whose governments have expressed similar wishes on opening up Tigray.

Starvation has become a major concern in Tigray. “Many households are expected to have already depleted their food stocks, or are expected to deplete their food stocks in the next two months,” according to a new report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, which is funded and managed by the U.S.

The report posted Thursday says more parts of central and eastern Tigray likely will enter Emergency Phase 4, a step below famine, in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the United Nations humanitarian chief has privately told the U.N. Security Council that Ethiopia may not have control of up to 40% of the territory in Tigray and does not have full command of forces from neighboring Eritrea operating there.

Details of the briefing by Mark Lowcock were shared by diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity because Wednesday’s meeting was a closed-door one.

Available information indicates that Ethiopia’s government now controls 60% to 80% of the territory in Tigray, Lowcock told diplomats. And some of the forces that sided with Ethiopian ones earlier in the conflict are reportedly now pursuing their own goals, he said.

Ethiopia’s government has denied the presence of soldiers from Eritrea, a bitter enemy of the former Tigray leaders, but witnesses have described widespread looting, killing and other abuses.

“Eritrean forces are almost everywhere in Tigray,” one man who managed to travel from northern Tigray to the regional capital, Mekele, told The Associated Press this week. He described widespread looting of health centers and people dying from lack of care, with little to no communication or transport links to rural areas. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of concerns for family members.

A senior official in the interim Tigray government, Mesfin Desalegn, in an interview with the pro-government Abbay Media outlet this week said Eritrean soldiers had entered the conflict “to destroy” the Tigray forces, “but it should have been managed. It should have been controlled.”

People have been “massacred,” he said, describing an atmosphere of “complete vengefulness.” He called for the Eritrean forces to “cease what they are doing.”

The U.S. last month told the AP it had pressed senior Eritrean officials for the immediate withdrawal of their forces from Tigray. The U.S. did not say how Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive nations, responded. Eritrea’s information minister in recent days has denounced “frenzied defamation campaigns.”

The fighting in Tigray has the potential to destabilize other parts of Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country and the anchor of the Horn of Africa, as security forces are deployed to the region, the U.N. humanitarian chief told the Security Council.

Lowcock also said the U.N. has received reports that food is scarce in markets mainly because it was harvest time when the conflict began. Main supply routes remain cut, cash is scarce and some people are reportedly eating leaves to survive.

Ethiopia’s government has said it is reaching more and more people with aid, and it has privately told Biden administration officials that life is returning to “normalcy.”

There Is a Grave Humanitarian Need.’ U.N. Presses for Access to Ethiopia’s Embattled Tigray Region

/0 Comments/in , , , /by

TIME — The U.N. Security Council discussed the grave humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region on Wednesday as senior U.N. officials pressed the government for access to deliver aid to hundreds of thousands of people that humanitarian workers have been blocked from reaching.

Diplomats said U.N. humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock called the situation “dire” and said it will get worse if aid and measures to protect civilians aren’t rapidly increased.

Lowcock said the U.N. has received reports that food is scarce in markets mainly because it was harvest time when the conflict between Ethiopian and allied forces and those of the Tigray region that dominated the government for almost three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, according to the diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity because the council meeting was closed. Each side in the conflict, which began in November, now views the other as illegitimate.

The humanitarian chief told the council that crops were not only left unharvested but main supply routes remain cut and in addition cash is scarce, malnutrition is reportedly rising, and some people are reportedly eating leaves to survive — and all of this is taking place during the COVID-19 pandemic, the diplomats said.

Before the conflict erupted, the U.N. said 1.6 million of Tigray’s 6 million people needed food aid, and it hosted tens of thousands of refugees who fled from neighboring Eritrea in four camps.

U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Wednesday “there is a grave humanitarian need in Tigray, and at this point, we’re not able to reach the people that need to be reached.”

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Tuesday underlined “the need for continued urgent steps to alleviate the humanitarian situation and extend protection to all those at risk in Tigray,” Dujarric said.

Britain’s U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward told reporters after Wednesday’s council meeting that all 15 council members “shared the view that the incremental progress we’ve seen so far is not enough.”

She noted that several senior U.N. officials including World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley and High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi and senior humanitarian were just in Ethiopia meeting with government officials, which diplomats said was a sign of the urgency in gaining access to all areas of Tigray.

The diplomats said Lowcock told the council that Beasley, Grandi and U.N. security chief Gilles Michaud had “positive” meetings and emphasized the need for unimpeded access, protecting civilians and refugees and urgently restoring basic services including banking, communications, health services and paying salaries for civil servants.

Britain’s Woodward said the United Kingdom has condemned the destruction of the two northern refugee camps, Hitsats and Shimelba, “and we called for urgent assistance to those refugees displaced as a result.”

Diplomats said Lowcock told the council there are reports of some Eritrean refugees caught in the conflict being attacked, killed, abducted and taken back to Eritrea.

U.N. warns Tigray conflict could spark broader destablization in Ethiopia

/0 Comments/in , , , /by

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region could trigger broader destablization in the country, U.N. aid chief Mark Lowcock told the Security Council on Wednesday as he warned that a dire humanitarian situation in the north was set to worsen.

Hundreds of thousands of people in Tigray have not received help and the United Nations has been unable to completely assess the situation because it does not have full and unimpeded access, according to Lowcock’s notes for the closed virtual briefing of the 15-member Security Council.

He said there were reports of increasing insecurity elsewhere, which could be due to a vacuum created by the redeployment of Ethiopian troops to Tigray, and that the United Nations was concerned about the potential for broader national and regional destablization.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered air strikes and a ground offensive against Tigray’s former ruling party – the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – after regional forces attacked federal army bases in the region on Nov. 4.

The TPLF withdrew from the regional capital, Mekelle, and major cities, but low-level fighting has continued.

In the region of more than five million people, thousands of people are believed to have died and 950,000 have fled their homes since fighting began.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was “seriously concerned” over the situation in Tigray, a U.N. spokesman said late on Tuesday.

Lowcock said Abiy’s government controls between 60% and 80% of the territory in Tigray, but does not have full command of the ethnic Amhara and Eritrean forces also operating in the region.

Dozens of witnesses say Eritrean troops are in Tigray to support Ethiopian forces, though both countries deny that.

The United Nations has received reports that police are operating at a fraction of their previous capacity and Lowcock said he could confidently say that if protection and aid were not quickly increased then the humanitarian situation would deteriorate.

He said there were troubling accusations of sexual and gender-based violence.

Several senior U.N. officials recently visited Ethiopia to push for greater access to Tigray. Lowcock said he was hopeful there would be concrete progress in coming days to allow aid to be scaled up.

Demand full humanitarian access into Tigray

/0 Comments/in , , /by

Amnesty International | According to the United Nations, 2.3 million people in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are in immediate need of life-saving assistance. But humanitarian access has been difficult due to restrictions and slow processes by Ethiopian authorities. Take action now and call on Ethiopia to immediately allow full humanitarian access to Tigray.

The humanitarian crisis is a result of the conflict between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray regional government ruling party, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which began in November 2020. The fighting continues in several parts of the region.

There is strong evidence of massacres of civilians, indiscriminate bombardment, extrajudicial killings, and looting. Girls and women have also been victims of sexual violence. Over 450,000 people have been displaced.

After weeks of blocked access, the UN announced in November that the Ethiopian authorities agreed to allow “unimpeded, sustained and secure access” into the areas under its control in Tigray. However, access remains extremely restricted. Relief agencies need to request approval from the federal government to access the region.

The Ethiopian government has introduced two separate approval processes for relief shipments and personnel. These processes have been slow. Many requests for relief shipments have been denied. The majority of entry requests for relief personnel have also not been approved making it difficult to distribute the aid that has been already allowed in.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis across Tigray is getting worse by the day. There has been no trade with the region since November. Crops and equipment have been destroyed. Farmers have fled from their land. The situation is particularly acute in rural areas where humanitarian access has been even more difficult due to the continued fighting and where banks and markets still are closed. The healthcare system in the region has almost collapsed.

Tigray borders Eritrea and is also home to four refugee camps hosting over 96,000 Eritrean refugees – many of whom are children. Two refugee camps, Hitsats and Shimelba, have not received any humanitarian assistance since the start of the conflict. A refugee who recently fled Hitsats told Amnesty International: “We were eating leaves from the field and drinking water from the nearby well.”

Join our supporters and members in calling on Ethiopian authorities to ease the life-saving work of the humanitarian organizations.

Send an e-mail now asking Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for immediate full humanitarian access to Tigray.

Ethiopia asks for debt relief as Covid takes toll

/0 Comments/in , , /by

Financial Times | Pandemic adds to pressure on developing economies trying to meet repayments

Ethiopia has asked for debt relief under a G20 programme to help poor countries reeling under the economic impact of coronavirus, making it the second African country to do so in the past week.

Ethiopia has long been seen as one of Africa’s most promising economies but the pressure the pandemic has placed on healthcare systems and economies means many developing nations are struggling to keep up with debt payments.

In a statement on Monday, its finance ministry said that it was “preparing for upcoming discussions with official creditors” as it looks to reduce “debt vulnerabilities and lower the impact of debt distress”.

“We haven’t even inoculated one individual against Covid, so we need to redirect the resources that we have towards that,” a senior official at the ministry of finance told the Financial Times.

Under its state-led development model, Ethiopia’s economy grew at close to 10 per cent a year for much of the past two decades until the arrival of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018. He had promised sweeping liberal reforms, including privatisation of the huge telecoms monopoly, to take the economy towards middle-income status. But ethno-political tensions and a conflict in the northern Tigray region have slowed his plans.

Monday’s statement from Addis Ababa follows a statement by the IMF last Wednesday that Chad had also asked for relief under the G20 programme agreed by the world’s biggest economies. In November, Zambia became the first African country to default on its debt since the start of the pandemic.

The Ethiopian move will be an early test of the G20 debt relief initiative, which requires borrowers to reach agreement on their debt with private creditors as well as official lenders.

Under the initiative, agreed last year by the world’s biggest economies, 73 of the world’s poorest countries can ask for debts to be restructured and, in the most extreme cases, written off. This goes beyond the G20’s debt service suspension initiative (DSSI), which allows the same group of countries to defer debt repayments but does not provide any debt reduction.

The DSSI has been criticised by debt campaigners and others for failing to enlist the participation of private sector creditors. This meant that debt relief secured from official lenders could be used to repay other debts. Several countries benefiting from the DSSI have stressed that they do not want relief from private creditors as this would jeopardise their access to commercial credit markets.

Despite the G20 framework’s requirement to seek a deal with private sector creditors, the finance ministry official sought to play down the impact on private sector lenders. “It would be a fair burden-sharing between all our official bilateral creditors and then, based on that, we will look at whether we need to reach out to private creditors, which is very unlikely,” the official told the FT. The official stressed that the adjustment would be “minor”.

Ethiopia had total public foreign debt of $27.8bn at the end of 2019, according to the World Bank, including $8.5bn owed to official bilateral creditors and $6.8bn to commercial creditors, including $1bn to bondholders. Chad has no outstanding foreign bonds but its total debts of $3.5bn include $1.5bn in commercial debt, about half of which is a loan from Glencore, the commodities trader, and associated banks.

“Ethiopia is trying to explore the options for broader debt relief,” said Kevin Daly, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “This is their way of saying things are difficult, we need further relief. What we don’t know is how this will work in practice. There is a lack of clarity right now.”

Ethiopia looks to Germany amid EU funding fight

/0 Comments/in , , /by

Devex | With the European Union withholding payments to the Ethiopian government over the conflict in its Tigray region, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed spoke to one of the bloc’s most influential national leaders Tuesday on improving bilateral ties.

“Good phone call with Chancellor Angela Merkel on national and regional issues,” Abiy tweeted, “including #COVID19 as well as strengthening development and economic cooperation between #Ethiopia and Germany.”

According to a German government readout of the call, the pair discussed “the domestic political situation in Ethiopia, regional security issues and questions relating to bilateral cooperation.”

“The Chancellor emphasized the importance of a peaceful solution to the conflict in the Tigray region and the humanitarian care of the people affected in the conflict area,” the readout continued. “Humanitarian aid organizations and the media must be given free access to the Tigray region.”

In December, the European Commission decided to postpone over €88 million in budget support to Ethiopia as a show of opprobrium at the spiraling conflict in the country’s North.

A commission spokesperson told Devex that other kinds of assistance, such as humanitarian aid and development programs through NGOs, are continuing but that payments to the government will only be unblocked once certain conditions are met, in particular “granting full humanitarian access for relief actors to reach people in need in all affected areas, in line with International Humanitarian Law.”

Officials in Brussels were hoping that EU member states would follow suit. But Berlin has taken a different stance.

Devex asked Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, or BMZ, last month whether it agrees with the commission that assistance to the Ethiopian government should be postponed until the situation on the ground improves.

“The Ethiopian government remains committed to its reform process, even since the start of the conflict in Tigray,” a spokesperson responded by email. “To facilitate the structural and sustainable implementation of this process over the medium and long term, Germany is willing to continue supporting Ethiopia. The German government is therefore continuing its ongoing bilateral development cooperation programmes.”

That didn’t elicit much support in Brussels, where officials have been pushing for a “Team Europe” approach to development policy, meaning better coordination between the commission, EU member states, the European Investment Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

“Decisions over budget support are for each Member State,” a commission spokesperson emailed Devex, “but the Team Europe approach in the context of the pandemic will have a much stronger impact on the ground in Ethiopia if there is full alignment with Member States.”

The BMZ spokesperson wrote that Germany is acting in line with the EU and other donors, however, as Berlin has its own conditions to be met before further funds are disbursed, including holding parliamentary elections — expected in June — and beginning a “credible political process” aimed at resolving the conflict in Tigray. The final condition is the conclusion of debt rescheduling negotiations between Ethiopia and China.

“Since funds will, in any event, only be disbursed following parliamentary elections, the German government is taking a long-term view,” the spokesperson wrote. “We will coordinate closely with the EU on all further steps.”

At least one EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, was more skeptical. “This is the issue with EU foreign policy,” the official told Devex. “If you are unified, you can do something. If you’re not, it’s like a shot in your own foot.”