Tag Archive for: Situation Reports

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 47 – 07 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 6 January 2021)

  • A video has emerged of the head of the Ethiopian Northern Command, General Belay, saying that the Eritrean Soldiers in Tigray had not been invited and were undesirable. It is the latest statement by an Ethiopian Federal official which confirms the presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray.
  • The General Belay is blaming the TPLF for starting the conflict and stopping the ENDF from guarding the border against Eritrean intrusion. Eritrea has provided major support to ENDF forces during the invasion of Tigray. This has been confirmed by the Ethiopian government as well.
  • Satellite images have spotted fires near Hitsats refugee camp in central Tigray. Fighting has been reported in the area, including between Tigrayan and Eritrean forces.
  • Fighting between ENDF-allied forces and Tigray regional forces has also been reported near Inda Aba Guna, near Shire, Tigray.
  • Further fighting between the ENDF and Tigrayan forces has closed the road between Mekoni and Mekelle. According to reports, several buses filled with ENDF soldiers were ambushed.
  • Sudanese and Ethiopian forces have clashed in the contested border region again. The Sudanese army says it repulsed two attacks carried out by Ethiopian forces. They specifically praised Sudanese paratroopers for repelling the attack.
  • The Sudanese army says that the attacks were carried out by the regular Ethiopian army. They say heavy weaponry was used during the attacks and so they have ruled out miliamen as the assailants. Sudan also says it has captured an Ethiopian soldier.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 6 January 2021)

  • The Ethiopian boundary commission has accused Sudan of breaching the agreement. Both countries have also accused each other of beginning the conflict. Both have also said that they want a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
  • The new round of GERD dam negotiations seem to have failed. The first meeting on Sunday 3 Jan has so far been the only one that has taken place. Sudan has demanded a greater role for AU experts.
  • Egypt has reaffirmed the need to reach an agreement before the summer.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 6 January 2021)

  • The interim mayor of Mekelle, who recently made comments about Eritrean soldiers having to leave Tigray, has said that he was merely repeating the comments of General Belay. Another official, Mulu Nega, has said that the interim mayor did not have the authority to discuss the situation and that “corrective measures” had been taken.
  • The BBC reported that the government had pledged to repair the shelled Al Negash mosque. It was recently restored by Turkey and severely damaged in December by artillery shelling.
  • A convoy transporting 35 tons of relief supplies arrived in Mekelle on Friday.
  • Photos have emerged of the looted hospital in Adwa. Hospitals in Tigray are running out of supplies.
  • January 7th is Christmas according to the coptic calendar. Prime Minister Abiy, and many religious leaders have been holding speeches to celebrate the holiday.

Situation in refugees (as confirmed per 6 January 2021)

  • Eritrean opposition broadcast, Radio Erena, is reporting that Ethiopian authorities are refusing permits to leave (exit permits) for hundreds of Eritrean refugees. These refugees are mostly part of family reunion programmes and have been approved by the IOM. It is not clear why the exit is being refused.
  • The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has said that many new refugees are arriving in Sudan. The many more refugees has resulted in overcrowding in Um Rakuba. They require more resources to ensure proper health standards and avoid epidemics of diseases, including Covid-19.
  • The IRC says that there are an unusually high number of unaccompanied children among the refugees. The IRC is enacting better protection programmes to take care of them. Children are especially at high risk of exploitation. They are often severely traumatized as well.
  • The SudanTribune reported that the ENDF has deployed more troops to the Sudanese border to prevent refugees from crossing over into Sudan. Ethiopian refugees in Sudan currently exceed 63 thousand.
  • The Norwegian Refugee Council Director in Sudan, William Carter, corroborates this and says that Ethiopia is also pushing Sudan for immediate repatriation of civilians that did manage to get to Sudan.
  • The Ethiopian minister of foreign affairs spokesman has said that the last details are being worked on with regards to repatriation of refugees from Sudan to Ethiopia. The spokesman said that it will start soon. Many refugees in Sudan have stated to media that they will not go back and will not feel safe.

International Situation (as confirmed per 6 January 2021)

  • US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has met with Prime Minister Hamdok, the Chairman of the Sovereign Council General al-Burham and various other ministers. They discussed economic opportunities for Sudan through the Abraham Accords, Sudanese debt repayment and the GERD dam negotiations.
  • The Abraham accords were signed between Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other arabic countries in the region. Sudan officially joined the accords on 6 January, paving the way for normalisation of relations between Israel and Sudan.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://addisstandard.com/news-analysis-we-dont-want-it-north-command-chief-on-eritrean-army-in-tigray-says-army-didnt-let-alienforces-in-full-speech/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55530355
https://www.rescue.org/press-release/thousands-more-fleeing-conflict-ethiopia-arrive-eastern-sudan-irc-scales-emergency
https://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article70296

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 47 – 6 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 5 January 2021)

  • The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) claims that it has killed 100 ENDF soldiers near Abraha Atsbeha, North of Mekelle. It also claims to have destroyed 2 tanks.
  • A source reports that heavy fighting is taking place between TPLF and Eritrean combatants near Endabaguna and Kisadgaba. Reportedly TPLF forces launched an attack on looting Eritrean soldiers. Endabaguna is the location of the reception center for refugees from Eritrea in Central Tigray.
  • Tigray Media House reported that a senior ENDF officer died of his wounds in Hospital. Colonel Dejene was ambushed by TPLF while traveling from Maychew to Korem two weeks ago.
  • Additional ENDF forces moving to Tigray reportedly consist of 8 tanks and troops in vehicles.
  • Pictures have appeared online, identified as Eritrean soldiers in Idaga Hamus (allegedly).

Regional situation (as confirmed per 5 January 2021)

  • The Prosperity Party Chair of Tigray, the ruling party of Ethiopia, has become the second official to confirm that there are Eritrean troops in Tigray. In a statement on Tigray Television, the regional broadcast, Nebeye Sehul said that Eritrean soldiers fighting in Tigray were probably deserters seeking better lives in Ethiopia. Nebeye says that the government is investigating.
  • Reported that on the 38th Extraordinary Assembly by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) there was an expectation that Ethiopian PM Abiy would invite the AU Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat to visit Tigray. The trip, however, had to be erased from the final communique. Ethiopia rejects “any foreign intervention” in a crisis that it says is purely domestic.
  • The Communique of the IGAD 38th Assembly welcomed the agreement by Ethiopia of 29th November 2020 allowing “unimpeded, sustained and secure access” for humanitarian support. Such “unimpeded access” has not yet been realised, despite UN and humanitarian organisations urging they need access.
  • The United Nations says that access to Tigray has improved slightly, but it remains critically challenged. Insecurity and bureaucracy are constraining the aid that can be provided. It has been able to access the main cities, but cannot access rural areas and Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps.
  • The UN reports that in East Sudan the first refugees have been transferred from the Village 8 reception centre to the new camp in Tunaydbah, Sudan. Um Rakuba camp has approached full capacity.
  • UNHCR spokesperson, Andrej Mahedic, states that more than 30% of the refugees arriving from Ethiopia are minors, younger than 18, whilst 5% are elderly, older than 60.
  • The head of Egypt’s intelligence service has met with the Sudanese Prime Minister Hamdok as well as the Head of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, General Al-Burhan. They discussed regional developments and the GERD dam negotiations. President Al-Sisi of Egypt and Al-Burhan also spoke on the phone on Monday.
  • Eritrean Minister of Information, Yemane Meskel, informs that Minister of Foreign Affairs, Osman Saleh and Presidential Adviser, Yemane Ghebreab, met Sudan’s Head of the Sovereign Council, General Al-Burhan, delivering a message of President Afewerki.
  • In a press conference Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Minister and Vice President Demeke has said that Ethiopia wants to resolve the conflict with Sudan peacefully. According to him, the clashes in November and December have not changed the strong relationship between both countries.
  • The status of the GERD dam negotiations remains unclear. Sudan has not yet returned to the negotiation table.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 5 January 2021)

  • Ethiopian police have released the Reuters cameraman that was arrested a couple weeks ago. No charges have been filed against him.
  • VP Demeke said that the government is currently taking measures to provide food and other supplies to Tigray. He also said that reconstruction efforts are on the way and that telecommunication lines are being restored to the whole region. Telecom, electricity, and full banking access will soon start again.
  • VP Demeke has also said that planning for a 6th general election is on the way in TIgray. The federally appointed interim government has been tasked with organizing it. Opposition parties have been invited to participate.
  • The Ethiopian National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) has arrested 21 individuals for issuing travel documents illegally. Most of them worked at the Bole Airport.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 5 January 2021)

  • A witness has told federal broadcaster ETV that Amanuel Church was shelled. Civilians were seeking shelter inside and were killed as a result of the attack. Amanuel is near the UNESCO site Negash Mosque, Africa’s oldest mosque, which was severely damaged in December as a result of shelling.
  • A list has been published on-line, claiming to contain the names of civilian victims of the war in Tigray. The list has 440 entries and has been assembled using information from different sources. Many of the deaths have not been (officially) confirmed.

International Situation (as confirmed per 5 January 2021)

  • The US Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin is due to visit Khartoum on 6 January. The aim of the visit is to review the economic situation, as well as the US assistance to Sudan. Mnuchin will also visit other countries in the region such as Egypt, Qatar and Israel.
  • The UN estimates that more than 322 thousand people are Internally Displaced (IDP). The provisional Tigrayan government reported yesterday that it believed there were 2.2 million IDPs.
  • The UN says health facilities outside cities are not operational, while those in cities are in critical need of supplies.
  • The UNHCR has stated that it needs 156 million US$ to meet immediate needs of refugees in Ethiopia, but only US$ 40 million has been pledged.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.tghat.com/victim-list/
https://www.facebook.com/MFAEthiopia/posts/4313919665301910
https://www.unocha.org/story/daily-noon-briefing-highlights-ethiopia-niger-yemen
https://dailynewsegypt.com/2021/01/04/egypts-intelligence-chief-abbas-kamel-met-with-hamdok-al-burhan-hamidati-in-khartoum/

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 46 – 5 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

● Clashes between Ethiopia and Sudan ended last week, after the Ethiopian army withdrew away from the border.

● More sources are saying that the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) is retreating from rural areas in Tigray towards the capital Mekelle. This corroborates earlier sources.

● Fighting continues to take place around Mekelle. Shelling has been observed near Hagere Selam, 50 kilometers from the regional capital.

● Civilians are afraid of ENDF soldiers as they are said to take revenge on civilians after losing a battle.

● Mechanised infantry of the ENDF is being moved to Tigray, and is heading to Mekelle.

● Satellite pictures show that many fields surrounding the ENDF Northern Command HQ have been burned. In total 12 ha of land has been set on fire.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

● The negotiations on the GERD dam between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have collapsed after Sudan did not attend. Sudan wants to give a greater role to AU experts and observers to facilitate negotiations and reconcile opinions. The EU, US, and AU are observing the talks.

● A Sudanese radio station has reported that Amhara militias kidnapped and killed herders in Sudan. A source told the radio that “the incident is just part of a series of killings and kidnappings carried out by Ethiopian shifta gangs, supported by Ethiopian government forces.”

● The Sudanese government has opened a new refugee camp for Tigrayan refugees. This new camp, in Gedaref state, has a capacity of 30 thousand. 500 refugees are being transferred every day.

● An outbreak of coronavirus in one of the refugee camps has slowed down the transfer of refugees to the new camp.

● Egypt and Sudan have increased cooperation to crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood. It includes training in the tolerance of Islam, promoting anti extremist discourse, and a joint missionary convoy.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

● FEWSNET, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, released its outlook for the coming months (up to May 2021), predicting large food insecurity across Ethiopia. Half the territory will be in the stress or crisis phase. Current and programmed international humanitarian aid are already included in the model.

● In Tigray, food security will likely remain at crisis levels until May.

● Swarms of locusts have caused large scale damages between October and December. Up to 60% of crops were lost as a result. Many eggs are now hatching in the Somali region. They will remain a threat in the coming months.

● FEWSNET predicts below average rainfall in most regions. This will likely result in smaller crop yields and have a negative impact on food security. Low rainfall also encourages locust swarm formation.

● The Amhara Chief Commissioner of Police, Abere Adamu, has given a speech on the involvement of Amhara forces in the conflict with Tigray. According to him, Amhara special forces played an important role in positioning ENDF forces prior to the conflict. The President of Amhara was allegedly also aware that a conflict was going to take place.

● Amhara continued playing an important role in coordinating and guiding ENDF forces, he stated.

● The Amhara Commissioner also said that “deployment of forces had taken place in our borders from east to west. The war started that night, after we have already completed our preparations” implying that the involvement of the Amhara special forces had been prepared and was well on the way before the start of military operations on 4 November 2020.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

● A preliminary report by the interim Tigray administration has been released on the damages of the conflict in the region. According to their assessment 4.5 million people need humanitarian assistance. Many houses have been completely destroyed, and 2.2 million people have been internally displaced (IDPs). Half of these IDPs come from Western Tigray.

● The status of 78% of the health facilities in Tigray is unknown. Many of the hospitals have been potentially destroyed or pillaged.

● At the start of the conflict Tigray counted 40 hospitals and 296 ambulances. The report assesses that only 31 ambulances, in four hospitals, remain. The remaining ambulances were stolen or destroyed.

● The University of Mekelle has at least partially been looted. Pictures show that the offices of the College of Veterinary Medicine have been destroyed.

● A delegation from Mekelle University is reportedly in Addis Ababa negotiating the future of the university. Discussions are taking place about the functioning of the university and the take over of Adigrat University students and staff. Future international partnerships are also being discussed.

● Many people in Mekelle fear leaving their houses. They fear being forcefully conscripted into the army.

● Checkpoints have been set up in Tigray, complicating movement in the area.

● A source has said that 150 civilians have been killed by Eritrean soldiers near Nebelet town. This would include 4 muslims guarding the local mosque (at Adi Argudi).

International Situation (as confirmed per 4 January 2021)

● The British minister for Africa, James Duddridge, has said that the UK government is deeply worried about the situation in Tigray and the wider region. The British government continues to raise the importance of the respect for human rights with the Ethiopian government. The UK also works with other regional actors to find a peaceful solution.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/eastern-sudan-herder-killed-by-ethiopian-militia
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/12/egypt-sudan-train-imam-religious-muslim-brotherhood.html
https://addisstandard.com/news-analysis-amhara-region-police-chief-reveals-how-regions-police-force-guided-federal-steel-clad-mechanized-forces-to-join-war-in-tigray/
https://www.davidalton.net/2021/01/04/in-a-letter-from-the-africa-minister-james-duddridge-mp-he-says-we-are-deeply-worried-about-the-risks-the-conflict-poses-to-civilian-lives-access-to-tigray-remains-restricted/
https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/desert-locust-bulletin-507-4-january-2020

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 45 – 4 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 3 January 2021)

● The Federally appointed provisional mayor of Mekelle, Mr. Atakilti Haileslassie, has urged for the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean Troops from Tigray. This is the first time Ethiopian Federally appointed officials have officially admitted that Eritrean soldiers are involved in operations in Tigray.

●  Eritrean military captain Gubssa Kahsay has died. Sources in Tigray state he died during operations with Tigray Defence Forces in Tigray. In Eritrea, EritTV broadcasted his death caused by illness. In the past few weeks, at least five high ranking Eritrean military have died from illness, according toauthorities.

● Report of shooting among Ethiopia National Defense Forces (ENDF) soldiers in a meeting held at Meles Zenawi Academy in Mekelle, Tigray. Federal Ethiopia Prosperity Party military officials ordered federal police and military forces, who are patrolling Mekelle, to fight the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) in mountainous areas where TDF are engaging guerilla warfare. Forces refused to take the order and argued they came to Mekelle to keep peace, order and arrest TPLF leadership; not to engage in a fight with TDF. Dozens were wounded and are receiving medical treatment at Ayder Hospital.

● ENDF formations are reportedly gathering around Mekelle, Tigray, and surrounding towns (including in Qwiha, where shots were fired on 3 January).

● Sudanese military intelligence has said it has arrested 45 TPLF fighters arriving in Sudan.

● Eritrean soldiers in Tigray select people with relatives abroad. They select them by offering people to call relatives. Those with relatives abroad are then detained. The relatives overseas are subsequently extorted for money, with the threat that the relatives will be killed. This has been reported in Rama and other places. Eritrea is involved in abductions for ransom extortion in Sudan and Libya and previously in Egypt.

● Report of severe violence against women: “countless number of women” are victims of physical and sexual abuse and rape, including gang rape. Some of these acts are aggravated by other forms of brutality like shooting victims or mutilating them with knives.

● In Mekelle many women are asking for a post pill as a precaution for avoiding unwanted pregnancy.

● Report that women are kidnapped and taken by armed forces from different parts of the region without any information of their whereabouts. Call made for urgent investigation.

● Unconfirmed report that ethnic Tigray Ethiopians in peacekeeping missions abroad have been redeployed to the Ethiopian-Sudan border and that two Eritrean divisions are surveilling this
operation.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 3 January 2021)

● The Sudanese army deputy of staff has said that Sudan will restore sovereignty over the entire al-Fashqa region which is occupied by ethnic Amhara Ethiopian farmers.

● The dispute over the area of the al Fashaqa on the Ethiopia-Sudan area is rooted in colonial times. Land in use by Ethiopian farmers belongs to Sudan. A compromise was reached in 2008: Ethiopia would acknowledge the legal status of the border, while Sudan would allow the Ethiopian farmers to live there. The status of the agreement has recently been challenged.

● The Egyptian President Al-Sisi has spoken with the Sudanese Chairman of the Sovereignty Council, Al Burhan, stressing “Egypt’s support to Sudan across all fields”.

● An agreement reached between the US and Sudan. The US will provide 111 millionUS$ to pay off bilateral debt, 120 million US$ to help pay the IMF, and 700 million US$ for budgetary assistance.

● The Sudanese finance minister announced the aid would help Sudan to clear its arrears with the World Bank, and make it eligible for the IMF Highly Indebted Poor Countries Programme.

● Negotiations on the Ethiopian GERD dam restarted Sunday under chairmanship of . Representatives of the AU, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, were in attendance. The meeting was held virtually. The meeting collapsed because Egypt refused to accept a paper put on the table for discussion.

● According to the Ethiopian State Broadcaster Fana, most of the issues regarding the filing and annual operations of the dam are agreed. The differences are about future water development projects on the Abbay Basin and on the “co-relations between the GERD Guidelines and Rules “.

● The number of Tigrayan refugees in Sudan has grown to 61.000. It is estimated 1200 pregnant women are in the camps.
● Refugees in Um Rakoba camp clashed. There have been high tensions between refugees of different ethnic groups. According to the Sudantribune, aid workers have been avoiding these camps as a result.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per3 January 2021)

● There are concerns about the increase in violence in Ethiopia. The number of massacres that have been taking place in the last months has been increasing in regularity. The Federal government is being confronted with multiple crises at once.

● The OLF, an insurgency mainly fighting in the region of Oromia, has reportedly “graduated” hundreds of new fighters. Recent months have seen a surge in violence in the region.

● Electricity is still not available in the vast majority of Tigray. Satellite images show many towns without lights.

International Situation (as confirmed per 3 January 2021)

● The UNHCR is concerned about the reported forced repatriation of Eritrean refugees from Addis Ababa to Tigray. Many Eritreans fleeing the conflict in Tigray have been forced to return to the camps they
left in november. UNHCR is requesting access to all facilities at which refugees are being held.

● The ENDF has left the Shire area, where the Eritrean refugees in Tigray are hosted, reportedly under control of Eritrean troops and this area is not safe for Eritrean refugees who fled Eritrea.

● It was further announced that Eritrean refugees will not be allowed outside of camps without a pass.

Links of interest

https://www.africanews.com/2020/12/31/sudanese-army-retake-border-area-with-ethiopia/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55476831
https://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article70283
https://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article70287
https://www.awashpost.com/2021/01/02/mounting-violence-in-ethiopia-exposes-deepening-fault-lines-and-leadership-crisis/

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 44 – 3 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● The TPLF is keeping control of mountainous areas in Tigray. As many analysts predicted when Mekelle was taken, the ENDF has had difficulties driving the TPLF out of well entrenched mountain positions.

● The ENDF has launched an offensive towards Samre, East of Mekelle.

● Reported cruelties against civilians include forcing relatives to commit incest on women and girls under the threath of arbitrary execution.

● Report that 150 civilians were hiding in a church in Edagahamus, Tigray. They were, reportedly, brutally killed. It is estimated that 300 civilians were killed in Edagahamus and surrounding.

● Many towns in Tigray have been attacked by ENDF and Eritrean troops by heavy artillery. The towns include: Humera, Shire, Aksum, Adwa, Adigrat, Wukro, Mekelle, Hewane, Workamba, Abi Adi, and Hagerselam. In these operations innocent civilians were attacked.

● In Mekelle, Tigray, there were air strikes and bombings on Saint George church, two Mekelle university campuses and ‘adishimdehun’, kebeles 03, 05, 11, 14 & 15, ‘Enda Gebriel’, ‘70 kare’, and ‘Latchi’.

● Abi Adi, Tigray, and its outskirts, has been hit by airstrikes on civilian neighbourhoods for one week.

● It is reported that 1000 civilians were killed in attacks on Aksum town and 500 civilians in Wukro.

● It is reported that hundreds of civilians were killed in smaller towns of Hazwzen, Digum and Nebelet.

● Pictures are emerging of the heavily damaged Al Negash Mosque in Tigray. There are clear signs of shelling. It was first reported that the mosque had been destroyed on 18 december. Reportedly, the mosque was first bombed and later looted by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops.

● The Al Negash Mosque is thought to be the oldest mosque in Africa, dating back to the 7th century. It is a UNESCO world Heritage site and was recently restored. People died trying to protect the mosque.

● Foreign Minister Demeke, Ethiopia, rejects the TPLF-claim to have carried out a pre-emptive strike.

● TPLF stated it was provoked on 3 Nov when the Ethiopian government sent commandos in an Antonov and/or cargo plane, under pretext of delivering new banknotes, allegedly with the intention to capture the Tigray regional government, which was assembled in a meeting in Planet hotel in Mekelle.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● The US carried out drone strikes on an Al Shabaab operated radio station. No casualties were reported.

● Sudan has announced that it is redeploying more troops to the Sudan-Ethiopian border.

● The UN peacekeeping mission to Darfur in Sudan, ongoing since 2003, has ended. 800 Ethiopian soldiers helping with policing the area are returning home. Sudanese security forces will be taking over. Protests have been taking place urging for the continuation of the mission.

● The Ethiopian Border Affairs Commission (EBAC) has released a statement that all Sudanese forces should leave Ethiopian soil immediately. They condemn the Sudanese aggression and the destruction of property, looting and killings of Sudanese forces in the disputed region.

● EBAC warns that unlike in previous clashes, this time regular Sudanese military played an important role in operations. This creates a “destabilizing” regional environment.

● The EBAC called for the withdrawal of Sudanese troops and the Ethiopian government to deploy troops to protect the farmers.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reported that individuals wanting to leave the country now need to show their ID, which shows an ethnic classification of each citizen.

● Tigrayans at airports are being asked whether they participated in the election on 9 September. Fana, the Ethiopian state broadcaster reported that an Ethiopian airlines employee of Tigrayan origin had been charged with assisting in the organising of the election. Another Tigrayan, a manager at the state company Ethiotelecom has also been accused of participating in the election as a voter.

● The ENDF has released a list of TPLF groups and cells that have been destroyed. They include many high ranking officers as well as a former minister. A law professor at the university of Mekelle has also been arrested for allegedly creating agitation and unrest.

● Ethnic harassment continues to take place. The New York Times (NYT) reported earlier that Tigrayans had their houses sacked by police. These have not been isolated events.

● Tigrayan businesses have been targeted by ethnic profiling. Companies are having their finances investigated, others closed. The CEO of Ethiopian Airlines, among executives and employees, has been put under house arrest for communicating with the TPLF.

● The NYT reported earlier three foreign diplomats from different embassies have said that they had to search for new security contractors after a Tigrayan security company had been suspended.

● State companies are conducting purges of employed Tigrayans. Employees are detained by police.

● The NYT also reported earlier that the purge is taking place within the armed forces. Tigrayans in the ENDF have had their phones confiscated and were then put under arrest.

● The Ethiopian Attorney General (AG) Gedion has said that there have been a few “isolated incidents”. The government is taking the issue seriously. A hotline will be set up to report complaints.

● 27 people were killed by gunmen in Oromia. It is unclear who committed these shootings, although there have been some accusations that government forces were involved.

International Situation (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● The Ethiopian Diaspora group ED-REAP released a press statement including 5 demands: immediate withdrawal of foreign forces, a UN mandated investigation into war crimes, full access for independent media, full and unfettered access for humanitarian aid groups, and access to organisations helping with rehabilitation of TIgray.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/12/world/africa/Ethiopia-Tigray-ethnic.html
https://www.fanabc.com/english/ministry-of-defence-announces-list-of-destroyed-tplf-group-members/
https://am.al-ain.com/article/ethiopian-national-defence-force-announced-the-names-of-tplf-s-killed-officials
http://www.branapress.com/2020/12/31/ethiopian-border-affairs-committee-issues-a-statement-sudan-should-unconditionally-withdraw-its-forces-from-ethiopian-territories/
https://t.co/FRCkis06CO?amp=1
http://www.tigraionline.com/articles/ed-reap-press-release.html

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 42 – 2 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● Multiple sources state that Eritrean soldiers are blocked in attempts to leave Tigray. Heavy fighting between Ethiopia National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) is taking place near the major roads out to Eritrea. This has stopped the Eritrean transfer of looted goods out of the region.

● A source says that the ENDF is handing Shire, Tigray, to Eritrean troops. Eritrean telecom is servicing the area. Some people received calls. The Shire area hosts 100.000 Eritrean refugees.

● A source states that the Tigray Egela Woreda (including Gerhu-Sirnay, Semhal, May-Hamato, Leyto, Endaba-Estifanos, and Gere’a), on the border with Eritrea, is occupied by Eritrean soldiers and Eritrean telecom is providing full coverage. Citizens made calls, using phones of Eritrean troops.

● The TPLF says that it has shot down an ENDF airforce gunship on 30/12 8:30.

● Belgian TV shows footage of dozens of “shot-up army vehicles”.

● Reports of rape of Tigray women as part of the violence carried out on civilians in Tigray.

● Sudan has declared that it achieved control of its territory occupied by Ethiopian farmers after several weeks of fighting in the area. Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs accused Sudan of sending troops into Ethiopia, which is denied by Sudan. Negotiations between the countries broke down last week.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● Egypt reported that the statement of the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, Dina Mufti, was “totally unacceptable”. The statement held that Egypt “has turned Ethiopia into a threat”, a statement that was related to the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

● Egypt will hire an international law firm to protect investments, states Alaa Al-Saqati, head of the Egyptian Industrial Zone in Ethiopia, to initiate a case before international courts against Ethiopia.

● Al Shabaab and the Somalia ISIS branch have been emboldened after Ethiopia and the US withdrew a significant numbers of troops. The terrorist organisations state that they will disrupt elections planned for early 2021. There are fears of suppression and low turnout.

● The government and opposition in Somalia are in disagreement on the election preparations. The President has been accused by the opposition of “stacking” election committees with loyalists.

● There are concerns about the severe coronavirus restrictions in Eritrea. Sources say people have described the restrictions as a death sentence as they have no food. The rules do not apply to soldiers.

● Representatives of Ethiopia forced 179 truck drivers from the Tigrayan company EFFORT to hand the trucks over to the Ethiopian government. Amharic and Tigray drivers were separated. The drivers refused, but were brought to camps and forced to hand over the keys of the trucks.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● UN risk assessment team has reportedly not been able to travel outside Mekelle. According to a report they feared the Ethiopian security forces were surveilling their work.

● Aid agencies say that they are still largely unable to access the rest of Tigray. No communications, damaged infrastructure and government restrictions have stopped them from reaching most areas in Tigray. The Ethiopian government is still refusing full access.

● Students from the University of Adigrat have been transferred to Mekelle University. The other institutions in Tigray, have all been looted. Mekelle remains the only functional university in Tigray.

● Many houses have been completely looted. Utensils, valuables, and furniture have been taken. VOA Tigrigna has also reported that investments worth billions of Birr have been destroyed and looted in the southern areas of Tigray.

● ENDF soldiers have rounded up youth in Mekelle and these were taken to an unknown location.

● Report that the transitional Tigray government (Prosperity Party) is intimidating scholars of Mekelle University to join the Prosperity Party and to take a position in the transitional government appointed by the Federal Ethiopian government.

● The elected government of Tigray (TPLF) states on its station DW that it will act against Tigrinyans working with the transitional government appointed by the Federal Ethiopian government.

● Trucks owned by the Tigray EFFORT company were taken to Addis Ababa by the Ethiopian government.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● No evidence has been presented against the Reuters cameraman arrested on thursday 24 december. He will be held until January 8th, pending investigation.

● More reports of ethnic profiling and harassment against Tigrayans, including at Bole airport.

● 310 people were arrested in Ethiopia for causing disputes between the Ale and Konso communities in South Ethiopia. The conflict between the communities was quelled after traditional reconciliation. The communities are now helping each other rebuild their homes. Traditional law can help settle disputes.

● The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) released a report on the killings that took place in june following the assassination of the Oromo musician Hachalu Hundessa’s June 29th. 123 people were killed in the violence, 75 were killed by Ethiopian security forces. Many more were wounded and displaced as a result. The EHCR report finds that Crimes against Humanity took place by groups perpetrating the massacre.

● Witnesses interviewed by the EHCR stated that sometimes police watched and did not intervene while attacks were taking place.

● The EHCR said that they “did not find any indication of ongoing efforts to investigate the use of force by security officers during the unrest and to hold to account those who caused unnecessary human suffering”.

● The report noted that “crimes against humanity of this nature combined with the current national context are signs that the risk of atrocity crimes, including genocide, is increasing”. They call for
investigation and “a lasting institutional solution.”

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/397910/Egypt/Politics-/BREAKING-Egypt-slams-Ethiopian-statements-on-its-i.aspx
https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/b165-blunting-al-shabaabs-impact-somalias-elections
https://www.trtworld.com/africa/scores-reportedly-killed-beheaded-tortured-in-ethiopia-s-june-july-unrest-42873

Events in Tigray Overview 2020 – Briefing EEPA HORN No.2 – 31 Dec 2020

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Key points

● More than two million children in Tigray do not have access to food, water and safety and may have been displaced, while there is a severe humanitarian situation regarding
100.000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray; full humanitarian access has not been given.
● Serious concern that war crimes are being committed against civilians in Tigray.
● Military situation likely to evolve into a protracted guerilla war situation.
● Destabilisation of peace in the region.
● Destabilisation in Ethiopia with increased ethnic fighting in the preparation of the elections.
● Facts on the ground in Tigray remain unclear due to a two-month communication lock-down.

Short overview

● Ethiopia PM Abiy claims that the regional government of Tigray state is undermining the central authority of Addis Ababa, by carrying out elections in September 2020, which were
not recognised by Addis Ababa. National elections had been postponed due to the COVID-situation.

● Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) won a new mandate, it claims, through the elections it held. It claims that PM Abiy was in cohoot with Eritrean Pres Isayas to
undermine Tigray.

● PM Abiy ordered a reorganisation of the Northern command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF). This constitutes an important part of the ENDF, stationed in Tigray
region due to the earlier conflict with Eritrea. This conflict ended with an agreement between Abiy and Afwerki in July 2018. Abiy ordered the split of the Northern command.

● After PM Abiy sent a general to carry out the division of the Northern command, the TPLF sent him back to Addis Ababa. In a next move, PM Abiy sent troops in a cargo plane on 3
November to the Tigray capital Mekelle. The TPLF ordered the arrest of the troops. Details on what happened with them are missing and contradictory.

● Shooting from the main camp of the Northern Command in Qwiha/Mekelle was reported starting from ca. 10 pm. Different sources claim that some members of the ENDF had sided
with Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and other parts of the ENDF resisted, which led to bloodshed. Similar events are reported from other military posts in Tigray around the same
time. Sources from inside the TPLF, claimed that it was a pre-emptive strike due to preparations for an immediate attack by the federal government. PM Abiy called a law and order operation with the aim to restore his authority over the region.

● PM Abiy instated a temporary provisional government in Tigray to replace the elected TPLF regional government. He declared a six-month state of emergency in Tigray.

● Operations to get control over the Tigray capital Mekelle started 28th of November. The TPLF withdrew from the capital and the ENDF took control of the capital.

● Eritrea participates in the war, by providing support to Ethiopian troops within Eritrea and by sending troops into Tigray. The latter is denied by both PM Abiy and Eritrea President
Afewerki. However, the evidence from Tigray and Ethiopia is overwhelming. The US State Department declared Eritrea was engaged in the war after studying evidence.

● Tigray has been in shut down since the start of the military hostilities, with no phone, internet and bank access. In Mekelle phone contact was restored in December. More than
two million people do not have access to food, water and safety and are displaced.

Current Military Situation

● ENDF have stated that they control the situation in Tigray regional state.

● This is contradicted by the TPLF and TDF who state they are involved in large parts of Tigray and have claimed victory in several battles in which they would have been able to capture
soldiers, weapons, ammunition and vehicles.

● TPLF had 250.000 troops at the start of the war and claimed it had gained control over parts of the Northern command of the ENDF. This has weakened ENDF, and increased its
dependency on Eritrea. Amharic militia, including the youth militia Fano, are fighting alongside ENDF forces.

● Eritrean troops have been fighting alongside ENDF forces; although it is difficult to give exact numbers, there is reason to believe that an extensive number of divisions and
mechanised divisions of Eritrea are involved.

● The UAE has been alleged of engaging in the war initially by giving air-support with drones flown in from the Eritrea port of Assab, where the UAE has a military base.

Regional Stability in the Horn

Sudan: A border conflict broke out between Sudan and Ethiopia concerning fertile land originally from Sudan but in use by Ethiopian farmers. Both sides mobilised troops and
clashed after Sudanese troops claimed to have been ambushed and soldiers were killed. The army Chief of Staff al-Barun of Sudan personally oversaw the operation.

South Sudan: Ethiopia is the major contributor of UNMISS and UNISFA-Abyei. Ethiopia is the head of the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangement Monitoring and
Verification Mechanism (CTSAMM) and contributes forces to CTSAMM. The crisis in Ethiopia is affecting its ability to engage with South Sudan.

Somalia: Ethnic Tigray troops were removed from AMISOM and replaced by Eritrean troops. AMISOM’s mandate includes overseeing the threats posed by Al Shabaab and other
terrorist groups. In the past Al Shabaab was supported and trained by Eritrea as reported by the UN Monitoring Group.

Refugee situation

Shire, Tigray: four large camps hosting 100.000 refugees from Eritrea under international protection were among the places targeted in the military operations. It is estimated that
thousands of refugees were abducted by Eritrean troops and forcefully returned to Eritrea. Refugees were forced to engage in the fighting against the local population. Refugees were
killed and many fled from the camps. Two camps, Adi Harush and May Aini received the first food aid from World Food Programme on 27 December. The other camps, Shemelba and Hitsats have not received any food for three months. Five humanitarian workers in the camps have been killed.

Eastern Sudan: Over 60.000 refugees from Tigray have arrived in Eastern Sudan. They report massacres and cruel killings and many dead. Many lost their relatives. Ethiopian
troops and militia from Amhara regional state have been reported to block refugees from reaching Sudan.

Addis Ababa: Eritrean refugees who fled from Shire, Tigray to Addis Ababa have been arrested and forcefully transported back to the refugee camps in Tigray, despite the lack of
safety, food and water in those camps and the threat of forced refoulement to Eritrea.

Ethnic profiling, civilian targeting, looting

● Reports of massacres across Tigray, especially in Humera and Adigrat, cruelties and mass executions.

● Widespread profiling of ethnic Tigrayans has been reported in Tigray. In Ethiopia ethnic profiling has affected ethnic Tigrayans, who have been suspended from work, travel and
have been subject to harsh security measures.

● Heavy looting of properties, allegedly by Amhara militia and Eritrean troops, involving universities and laboratories, industries, commercial places, churches, religious sites and
citizens. It is reported that truckloads were transported to Eritrea (military base Asholgol).

Situation in Ethiopia

● In Ethiopia further conflict broke out in the Benishangul-Gumuz region and some officials of the region have been arrested.

● Leaders of the Oromo Liberation Front have been arrested.

● Journalists have been harassed, surveilled, arrested, raising concern of freedom of press.

● National elections have been called by the Ethiopian National Election Board for June 5th.

International response

● AU has appointed 3 special envoys: Mr Joaquim Chissano, former president of Mozambique; Madame Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, former President of Liberia, and Mr Kgalema
Motlanthe, former President of South Africa. The envoys have met with PM Abiy.

● US has repeatedly expressed concern over the developing situation. The US has sent the USS Makin Island ship to the Red Sea to relocate US “forces in Somalia to other East Africa
operating locations while maintaining pressure on violent extremists and supporting partner forces”. US has expressed concern over the situation.

● EU has suspended budget support to Ethiopia due to violation of Human Rights. The EU has called for a ceasefire and full humanitarian access to the Tigray region.

● UN has asked for full humanitarian access to all parts of Tigray and investigations into the allegations related to what may constitute war crimes.

● IGAD has met on 20th December 2020 in Djibouti to discuss the regional situation.

● Sudan and Egypt increased cooperation on military exercises.3rd Jan negotiations are planned on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which may further increase tension.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/world/africa/Ethiopia-Eritrea-Tigray.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-arrest/ethiopian-police-arrest-reuters-cameraman-idUSKBN2920AD
https://addisstandard.com/news-local-official-in-amhara-region-accused-sudan-of-invading-large-swaths-of-land-stealing-destroying-more-than-25-m-worth-property/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2020-12-30/abiy-ahmeds-crisis-legitimacy
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/12/30/evidence-mounts-that-eritrean-forces-are-in-ethiopia
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1ukq3h-fUshA0a0ZDcSI22WHbfC6PnKtX&shorturl=1&ll=26.16920359729128%2C-14.51459589999999&z=2
https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2020/12/29/the-murky-politics-behind-the-metekel-massacres/
https://www.cfr.org/blog/amid-misinformation-and-suppressed-free-speech-ethiopian-conflict-erodes-abiys-credibility

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 42 – 31 December 2020

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation

– The TPFL broadcaster Dimtsi Woyanen (DW) reports victories by the TPLF including over the ENDF 4th brigade moving from Adwa through Edaga Arbi. The TPLF claims it ambushed them in Zongi, and 124 soldiers were killed, and 114 captured, as well as weapons, ammunition, vehicles and a 507 rocket.

– The TPLF also claims that it has captured ENDF colonel Alemu Semie, commander of the 4th brigade.

– Eritrean troops were blocked on the way from Ahsea around Ziban Guila, carrying large amounts of looted property. They took many casualties and were forced to turn back.

– According to DW the ENDF aligned forces are committing atrocities on civilians in Gijet, southern Tigray through heavy bombardment and killed 21 youth, including a 7 year old child.

– The economist has published an article which argues that there is mounting evidence of an Eritrean presence in Ethiopia. This “makes it harder to bring peace to Tigray”.

– Eight hundred ENDF and Eritrean troops have gathered at the Trans Ethiopia PLC camp in Mekelle. They reportedly retreated from Agula and May Mekden. Their commander is severely wounded.

– Eritrean soldiers in Tigray have reportedly only passed through, and have not occupied any positions.

– Pictures show that medical equipment and pharmacies of health centers in Wukro, Negash, Idagahamus and Adigrat towns were completely destroyed and looted – allegedly by Eritrean troops.

– Tsedale Lemma (Addis Standard) states that: “No armed conflict in the world, much less politically complex as the one in Tigray, has ever been resolved without a roundtable negotiated settlement.”

Reported Regional situation

– The Ethiopia crisis has a direct impact on South Sudan since Ethiopia is the major contributor of UNMISS and UNISFA-Abyei. Ethiopia is the head of the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangement Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (CTSAMM) and has a reasonable contribution of forces under CTSAMM. The crisis in Ethiopia is affecting its ability to engage with South Sudan.

– Refugees report they were hunted down by militia trying to escape to Sudan fleeing without anything.

Reported International dimension

– A Dutch humanitarian organization ZOA staff member is killed in Tigray, Ethiopia. The 52 year old staff member was murdered during the recent conflict while on duty in Hitsats refugee camp.

– United Nations Human Rights Chief, Bachelet, demands access to the whole of Tigray.

– Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summons the Ethiopian chargé d’affaires to Cairo to clarify statements by the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson on Egypt’s internal affairs.

– An AU initiated negotiation on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is scheduled for Sunday. Agreement was almost reached in 2020, but fell through. The outcome of the negotiations will be influenced by the dispute on land-ownership at the Ethiopia-Sudan border, fueling conflict.

– The UN has reiterated its Human Rights chief’s demands for access to the whole of Tigray.

– Article in Foreign Affairs points out that PM Abiy is facing a legitimacy issue with ethnic tensions rising all over Ethiopia, causing a precarious situation. The article finds the conflict in Tigray is not over.

– US Council on Foreign Relations writes that misinformation and suppression of free speech erodes the credibility of PM Abiy.

Situation in Tigray

– Sources state that the church in Yeha, an archeological site, was looted, allegedly by Eritrean troops.

– Sources state that the school in Yeha, where many were taking shelter, was bombed. No information on casualties. Eritrean troops reportedly moved from Adwa through Yeha without occupying it.

– Sources state that there were killings in the village of Tashi (27-29/12). Federal soldiers started killing young men in the settlement area after they did not receive information about the whereabouts of TPLF leadership and militias. Tashi is located near Samre, where fighting has been taking place.

– Money transfers via Western Union and Moneygram are possible in Mekelle since 29/12. It is not clear whether people can access their regular accounts.

– Internet and mobile services remain cut in most of Tigray. While services have been partially returned to Mekelle, large areas of Tigray remain cut off.

– VICE reported on interviews with refugees in Sudan stating that civilians were not warned, prepared and protected. Civilian houses and people in their homes were shelled during the bombardment.
– In another interview, a refugee from Tigray in Sudan reported seeing people killed and “slaughtered”, he saw many dead bodies on the way and stated that many died on the way.

– VICE also reported that militias are blocking refugees from Tigray to reach Sudan. Refugees are now crossing Sudan through the Eritrean border with Sudan and also through Ethiopian farmlands.

Situation in Ethiopia

– Over 20 Eritrean refugees fleeing from tigray, were arrested by federal police in Addis Ababa (30/12).

– The Ethiopian Red Cross reported that 207 people were killed in the attack at around 04:00 local time (23/12) in the village of Bekoji in Bulen county in the Metekel zone (Benishangul-Gumuz region).

– ENDF chief now in charge of Benishangul-Gumuz, says 50 perpetrators of the massacre are captured.

– 97.000 people have been displaced as a result of ethnic violence in Benishangul-Gumuz.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/12/30/evidence-mounts-that-eritrean-forces-are-in-ethiopia
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1ukq3h-fUshA0a0ZDcSI22WHbfC6PnKtX&shorturl=1&ll=26.16920359729128%2C-14.51459589999999&z=2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_wWwfTso7I&feature=youtu.be
https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2020/12/29/the-murky-politics-behind-the-metekel-massacres/
https://twitter.com/UNGeneva/status/1344323612694568961?s=08
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2020-12-30/abiy-ahmeds-crisis-legitimacy
https://www.cfr.org/blog/amid-misinformation-and-suppressed-free-speech-ethiopian-conflict-erodes-abiys-credibility
https://youtu.be/9bAOhqV8bWU

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 41 – 30 December 2020

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 30 December)

– Fighting between ground troops of the Ethopian aligned forces (ENDF) and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) since early morning today (29/12) on the road from Wukro to Mekelle, including Agula, Mai Mekden, and East of Wikro in Atsbi, as well as in the outskirts of Mekelle, in Messebo.

– Fighting between ENDF and TPLF ground troops South West from Mekelle around Samre.

– There was also fighting between ENDF and TPLF troops at Finariwa, near the Tigray Southern border with Amhara region on the way from Samre (Tigray) to Sekota (in Amhara region).

– Ongoing fighting between ENDF and TPLF along the winding road that climbs to Atsbi, starting from the outskirts of Wukro.

– Roads from Mekelle to Adwa and from Mekelle to Wukro were closed in the afternoon.

– Officially confirmed that around Shire, Tigray, an Airforce MiG-23 jet was downed by TPLF several weeks ago. The pilot Col Tango was buried in Bishoftu a few days ago.

– According to a local direct source, the town of Wukro has been targeted or attacked by 216 bombs.

– Local sources say that there was no killing in the church in Tashi. However local sources state that there were ‘a lot of killings’ in Hagere Selam and Halah and Ala’isa on the way from Mekele to Hagere Selam.

– The ENDF has reported that it has captured containers, vehicles of rockets and missiles of the TPLF.

Reported regional situation

– Refugees interviewed in Hamdayet refugee camp (Sudan), declared that 250 people from a single village, Adi Aser, in Tigray were forcefully abducted to Eritrea by Eritrean soldiers in November. (AP)

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 30 December)

– The World Food Programme delivered food to 35.000 Eritrean refugees in May Ayni and Adi Harush in Tigray, but not to Shemelba and Hitstats camps with tens of thousands of refugees without support.

– Safety missions have been sent by the UN to Shemelba and Hitsats camps.

– Not all banks were open in Mekelle. Only a few government owned branches in the center were opened. Only depositing is possible. There is no explanation why they are only open for deposits.

– Tigray Prosperity Party Mekelle Head office has commenced work today.

– Dashen Beer branch manager in Adigrat, Isayas Asgedom was murdered along with his entire family. He was in a church outside Edaga Hamus. His son (Alula) was detained in Addis.

– Artist Henok Aregawi was killed in Adigrat allegedly by Eritrean troops. One of his songs is titled “peace to my country Ethiopia”.

– A courthouse in Humera had been turned into a ‘slaughterhouse’, allegedly by Amhara militia. (AP)

– The AP reports from Sudan refugee camps that Tigrayan refugees are now arriving from areas deeper in Tigray. These refugees suffer from trauma, some gunshot wounds, starvation and dehydration.

– An NPR reporter visited a refugee camp in Sudan with many survivors of the Mai Kadra incident. According to the testimonies, on November 9, “at about 3:00 a.m., men started rampaging through Mai-Kadra.” The witness states: “She saw them when she opened the door to her house. (..) They were young men like the ones here at this camp. She says the militants threatened ethnic Tigrayans like her.” The reporter finds that government related militia were explicitly alleged as perpetrators in addition to potential other perpetrators. 700 people are estimated to have been killed in the massacre.

– The NPR report points to intimidation of interviewees and finds that ethnic violence between Tigray and Amhara refugees is high. The UNHCR has separated both groups to calm the situation.

– AP reports that refugees find the area around the reception center in Sudan near the border with Ethiopia (Tigray) “unsafe”: stating that Amhara militia fighters threaten the refugees.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 30 December)

– Two officials of the Benishangul Gumuz region were arrested in relation to a “security problem” of the Metekel Zone: Mr. Atinkut Shitu – Chief Administrator of Metekel zone and Inspector Misgana Enjifeta – Deputy police commissioner of Benishangul Gumuz region.

– Members of the Benishangul Gumuz Regional State Council have unanimously voted to revoke the immunity of four members. Those four members are: Adgo Amsaya, former vice president of Benishangul Gumuz regional state; Shiferaw Chelibo, former Director General of the region’s Science and Technology Agency; Arega Balbid, former leadership of Metekel zone; and Girma Meni, member.

– Three of the officials were arrested in connection with the massacre in Bekuji Kebele, Bulen Woreda, Metekel zone in which more than 200 civilians were killed. The regional government said they were suspected of involvement and negligence to discharge their responsibility.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 30 December)

– The US top diplomat on African Affairs, Tibor Nagy, expressed extreme concern “by continuing reports of intimidation of journalists in Ethiopia. U.S. resolve to see media freedom respected remains unshaken.” These comments come following the arrest of a Reuters cameraman.

– The EU calls for investigation into ‘ethnically targeted’ violence in Ethiopia.

– Foreign nationals describe the many difficulties they encountered in leaving Tigray and Ethiopia. To reach Addis Ababa, they were bused out through Afar. They were profiled as being originally from Tigray. One was almost taken off the plane bound for London.

– The WHO chief Dr. Tedros Adhanom, expressed his concern about the situation in Tigray. Like him, many other people around the world have difficulties contacting relatives or friends in Tigray.

– Two Ethiopian officials from the Derg regime, which preceded the Federal Ethiopian regime, have had their sentence commuted. They have been hiding inside the Italian Embassy in Addis Ababa since 1991. Italian authorities did not kick them out, citing the possibility for the death penalty.

– The Sudanese PM, Hamdok, has met with the local governor to discuss the refugee situation.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://apnews.com/article/eritrea-sudan-middle-east-ethiopia-only-on-ap-a4cba907c516401df0a0b3c7eb095405
https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/2020-12-28/hundreds-of-civilians-killed-with-machetes-and-axes-in-ethiopian-town
https://eritreahub.org/last-flight-from-tigray-two-young-womens-escape-from-the-war

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 40 – 29 December 2020

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 29 December)

– According to the New York Times (NYT), Eritrea “joined the war in northern Ethiopia” in November and its forces “rampaged through refugee camps” where Eritrean refugees were hosted under international protection. The soldiers committed “human rights violations”.

– PM of Ethiopia Abiy, and Pres Isayas, Eritrea, deny the presence of Eritrean troops. On 30 Nov. Ahmed told the Ethiopian parliament that Eritrea “had fed, clothed and armed retreating Ethiopian soldiers.”

– NYT conducted interviews with “two dozen aid workers, refugees, United Nations officials and diplomats, including a senior American official”. Satellite images, analyzed by the NYT, have corroborated the findings from the interviews.

– NYT reported that clashes took place in refugee camps for Eritreans in Tigray between Eritrean soldiers and TPLF aligned forces. The camp’s main water tank was “riddled with gunfire”.

– According to the NYT: “Eritrean soldiers looted aid supplies, stole vehicles and set fire to fields filled with crops and a nearby forested area used by refugees to collect wood.”

– Following the fight, Eritrean soldiers singled out dozens of refugees and “forced (them) back across the border into Eritrea.” Refoulement (forced return) is prohibited under international law as a fundamental principle. The refugees had fled Eritrea, an autocratic and harsh regime.

– A hundred thousand Eritrean refugees were hosted prior to the start of the military operations in camps in Tigray, Ethiopia. The New York Times quotes witnesses stating that the soldiers “burst into the camp” on November 19, and that these were Eritrean. This resulted in “mayhem”, described as “days of plunder, punishment and bloodshed.”

– A highly credible source from Eritrea informed the Situation Report that an estimated 7.000 Eritrean refugees have been forcefully returned to Eritrea and are held in “a special camp” in Eritrea. The report comes from a reliable source from the ground in Asmara (Eritrea).

– A Report that an EU official stated that looted goods were “openly sold in the Eritrean capital, Asmara.”

– Reports obtained from Asmara confirm the arrival of looted goods, including from factories and industries, held in Ashogolgol (Asmara). Catholic church leaders and elders in Eritrea continue to guide Eritreans not to buy these goods, even if cheap. Many citizens are, reportedly, following this guidance.

– More reports are coming in of Eritrean soldiers looting. The BBC has interviewed an analyst who says that sources inside Tigray are detailing that Eritrean soldiers are involved in heavy looting.

– The New York Times has also reported that witnesses say that Eritrean soldiers were wearing ENDF uniforms. This is not the first time this has been reported.

– NYT reports of an “Eritrean attack on a church in Dinglet, in eastern Tigray, on Nov. 30. By one account, 35 people whose names were provided were killed.”
– Unconfirmed reports that senior Eritrean military officers, L. Colonel Fisahaye Gebreab and Birhane Haile (Head of radio communication) are killed in a fight with Tigrayan forces in Tigray.

– Unconfirmed reports that in Nebelet, a town near Adwa, Tigray, Eritrean troops killed 54 civilians.

– Unconfirmed report on social media that some Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) in Mekelle are disguised in Tigray TPLF military uniforms and that they are harassing residents.
– Unconfirmed report that on the border to Sudan, Eritrean forces and Ethiopian Amhara soldiers are wearing TPLF uniforms in order to mislead the warring parties.

– Refugees from Tigray in Sudan say they will not return to Ethiopia or Tigray – even if they are told to come back, because they do not feel safe.

– Fighting between Sudan and Ethiopia aligned forces continues. The West Gondar region of Ethiopia has accused Sudan of stealing and destroying property worth 1 billion Birr (25 million euro) to the area. More Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Sudanese troops are moving into the area.

– A written declaration by the Commissioner of Refugees in Sudan, dated 23 Dec 2020, of a ‘prima facie’ approach to the recognition of refugees arriving from Ethiopia after 5 Nov.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 29 December)

– A Reuters cameraman was arrested in Addis Ababa – in the presence of his wife and 3 children, and will be held for a minimum of two weeks. No charges have been filed. Reuters has strongly condemned the arrest. The arrest follows the beating on 16th December of Reuters photographer Tiksa Negeri by two police officers.

– The Addis Standard reports renewed violence in the regions of Afar and Ethiopian Somaliland. Militias of both regions have carried out attacks in the other region. Several civilians have been killed.

– Unconfirmed report that 29 Ethiopian police officers were killed by the Oromia Liberation Front (OLF).

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 29 December)

– The mental toll on workers and other helpers is increasing, MSF said. It is taking steps to address it. Triage, and nursing wounded soldiers has especially caused traumatic stress.

– Banks have reopened in Mekelle. They were closed for over a month, stopping people from accessing money needed to buy the little food available. Customers were told today only to deposit and not to withdraw money. There were large queues today of people hoping to withdraw money.

– The ADP, a local Tigrayan party, has rejected a Federal offer to join the interim provisional government of Tigra. They cite the presence of Eritrean soldiers in Tigray, killings and other human rights violations, and the destruction of public and private infrastructure as reasons not to join.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 29 December)

– The EU calls for an investigation into the killing of a 100 people in Benishangul-Gumuz last week.

– The Minister of water in Egypt states that Egypt will prioritise cooperation with Nile Basin countries.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/world/africa/Ethiopia-Eritrea-Tigray.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55295650
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-arrest/ethiopian-police-arrest-reuters-cameraman-idUSKBN2920AD
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1252402
https://addisstandard.com/news-local-official-in-amhara-region-accused-sudan-of-invading-large-swaths-of-land-stealing-destroying-more-than-25-mworth-property/