Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 16 January)

● Fires have been detected on the outskirts of Humera. The fires are within an active combat zone.

● Minutes have leaked of the Tigray Emergency Coordination Centre (TECC) meeting of 8 January 2021. The minutes identify that 4.5 million are in need of food.

● The TECC includes the UN and Humanitarian organisations present in Tigray (MSF, Red Cross, CRS, Norwegian Church Aid) and several administrators of the transitional governments participated in the meeting.

● The minutes identify that five assessment teams have been re-established but only two of them “managed to go to the field”, while three teams have no access and no vehicles to go to West, North-west and Central zones of Tigray.

● Impediments to humanitarian assistance is the lack of vehicles and salary issues as people outside have not received salaries pending payment issues.

● Delivery of water has been difficult as water trucks and missionaries are looted.

● A flow of IDPs is observed “coming into Mekelle and other major towns” showing “how much desperate” people are to get “humanitarian access”. Their produce and household materials are vandalised or burned.

● The humanitarian administrators can not go back to regional offices without food as “people are starving” and they will be in trouble “if they go with empty hands”.

● The Central Zone interim administrator states that “the situation on the ground is dire”. It is explained that “food and non-food items or other livelihoods are either looted or destroyed.”

● The Central Zone administrator warns that “hundreds of thousands” may “starve to death”, if urgent emergency assistance is not dispatched.

● The humanitarian organisations do not have an adequate number of trucks for transportation. During the war all trucks from the region were allegedly looted and driven to Addis Ababa. To transport the required food ratios to 4.5 million people more than 2000 trucks are now urgently required.

● Pictures have emerged on the internet of the bodies of the former Minister of Foreign affairs Seyoum Mesfin, the former minister of Federal affairs Abay Tsehaye, and former chief Whip of the government Asmelash Weldeselassie.

● The pictures of the bodies would indicate that the three have been executed together. The picture of Seyoum Mesfin shows that he was shot in the forehead. Asmelash is wearing socks. There is no indication of any fighting.

● The ENDF had said previously that the retired politicians had been killed in a firefight after they had resisted arrest. Asmelash Weldeselassie was blind.

● The pictures of the retired leaders were posted on facebook by the head of the transitional government in Tigray, Mulu Nega.

● The statement by the provisional administrator of Tigray, Mulu Nega, that Ethiopia did not have the power to get Eritrean troops out of Tigray has led to fierce comments.

● Tsedale Lemma of the Addis Standard states in response to the admission of Mulu Nega: “Any reflection on the status of Ethiopia as a state at this moment should begin by recognizing the somber fact that it’s no longer a sovereign state. For a country that fiercely defended its sovereignty for generations, 76 days to lose it is like being hit with a brute force!”

● Increased presence of Eritrean military and intelligence reported in Addis Ababa.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 16 January)

● 20.000 health workers and other government civil servants are not receiving their salary for over two months with some exceptions.

● International partners are requested to fill in the gaps as government structures are not functioning.

● Many businesses in Mekelle remain unable to operate due to a shortage of Ethiopian Birr. A withdrawal limit is still in place, hindering economic transactions.

● The interim administration has said that the majority of businesses are still unable to conduct normal activities.

● The Interim government has also said that government offices have been looted, making public services hard to distribute.

● 24 Former TPLF officials appeared in court, including Sebhat Nega. Federal police have asked for 14 days to investigate the case. The court accepted the extension and adjourned the case until the 29th of January.

Reported regional situation (as confirmed per 16 January)

● Sudan has said that it would not allow Ethiopia to accomplish a fait accompli regarding the filling of the GERD dam. Ethiopia has said that it would proceed with the second filling of the dam in July, something which both Sudan and Egypt oppose.

● Ethiopia has denied that it violated Ethiopian airspace. The chief of the Ethiopian army staff said that Sudan was trying to mislead the Sudanese and Ethiopian people into an “unwanted situation”.

● Sudanese Prime minister Hamdok has welcomed the initiative by President Kiir to mediate the Ethiopian-Sudanese dispute.

● Kenya is in talks with China to rearrange its debt. This is important because the harbour of Mombassa serves as a collateral to these debts. This has been an additional factor in heightened tensions in the region.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 16 January)

● France will host the next Sudanese investment conference. Due to take palace in Paris in May, the conference aims to encourage investment in the country.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

• Former TPLF officials appear court  
• Businesses in Mekelle grapple shortage birr
• Ethiopia not allowed to impose fait accompli in GERD issue: Sudanese official

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 14 January)

● Asena TV shows images of four to six explosions outside the municipality offices in the centre of Addis Ababa, which were followed with a few shots.

● New Eritrean troops have entered Mekelle, roaming the city along with many intelligence agents.

● Tigray news reports that Al Shebaab fighters are entering western regions of Ethiopia and may even be controlling parts of the Somali region of Ethiopia.

● A video emerged of the massacre at the Aksum Church of Maryam Zion, where at least 750 civilians were allegedly killed by Eritrean troops. The video shows a body taken away by a priest and shows the I.D. cart found on the body. EEPA reported that the massacre took place on 15 Dec., that civilians were hiding in the church and had been ordered out onto the square, before being executed.

● A second video has emerged of the Maryam Zion Church in Aksum, which was filmed on 29th November. The commentator states that the square should have been full on the eve of the annual Maryam Zion celebration, but it is showing an empty square without any people.

● In this video it is explained that the square is empty because Eritrean soldiers had arrived on the 27th Nov. evening in vehicles with an Eritrean military number plate (with red slash). Regional Tigray troops and youth tried to defend the town but could not hold it.

● The video comments that subsequently, the soldiers were shooting anyone they found on the road including those who tried to open shops in the early morning of 28 Nov. ENDF had entered Aksum around the 22nd November, but they did not stop the shooting, and Eritrean soldiers were killing hundreds of people and looting properties.

● The Catholic Bishop of Adigrat (Tigray), Abune Tesfaselassie Medhin, sent an appeal (dated 5 Jan 2021) stating that the people, including Eritrean refugees, have “run out of food items, basic life-saving medicines, water, etc., and have no access to essential services.”

● The Bishop states “millions” of people have been displaced, most of them women and children without food and water to escape from “heavy artillery and air-strikes.” The Bishop calls on humanitarian assistance to respond to the “war-induced” humanitarian crisis in Tigray. Many of the areas have still not been reached by aid organisations.

● In the last days, there has been fighting again around the Hitsats camp for Eritrean refugees. Eritrean soldiers killed many Eritrean refugees and took some of them to Eritrea. Some refugees escaped to the Adi Harush camp. A woman testified that in the flight from Hitsats to Adi Harush, 3 persons died.

● Eritrean refugees in Tigray are taken to Shiraro, others to Badme. There are at least 10.000 refugees, and they are slowly taken to Eritrea. What happens with them in Eritrea, is not known.

● The refugees held in Shiraro and Badme are held by Eritrean soldiers. They have no food, and they are forced to contact their family to send money. However, the refugees are dependent on the Eritrean soldiers to be able to phone relatives.

●The refugees held by Eritrean troops are using mobile phones from the Eritrean soldiers to contact relatives. These are Eritrean mobile phones. The soldiers are making a business out of this, so that they get paid for this ‘service’. Soldiers take a part of this money, and in some cases all of it.

● Mulu Nega, the chief of the Interim government in Tigray has cancelled a meeting with Mekelle University staff due to emergency operations in the area today.

● It is reported that banks are the first target to be looted by Eritrean soldiers.

● The US embassy warns against ‘strong-armed’ robberies of hiking American citizens in Entoto and Yeka parks and Guellele Botanical gardens. The hikers were surrounded by multiple armed men.

● US embassy sets a negative travel advise to

1. Border area with Somalia due to potential for terrorism, kidnapping, and landmines;
2. Border areas with Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Eritrea due to crime, armed conflict, and civil unrest;
3. Somali Regional State due to potential for terrorism;
4.  Ethiopia’s Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region (SNNPR) due to civil unrest;
5. The East Hararge region and the Guji zone of Oromia State due to armed conflict and civil unrest;
6. Benishangul Gumuz and the western part of Oromia State due to armed conflict and civil unrest.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 14 January)

● UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Filippo Grandi appeals to the Ethiopian government to give unimpeded access to Tigray “in whatever way possible” and that “all options should be explored” to safely provide desperately needed assistance.

● Grandi stated his teams were distressed by what they saw in Tigray: “Equally distressing to UNHCR teams on the ground has been our inability to assist thousands of Eritrean refugees who continue to flee the camps in search of safety and support. Refugees arriving on foot to Shire town in Tigray are emaciated, begging for aid that is not available. Refugees who reached Addis Ababa are being returned to Tigray, some against their will.” (Ep/013/Em)

● The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (GCRP) releases an atrocity alert delivering a sobering report on the situation in Tigray, Ethiopia, backed up with satellite imagery.

● GCRP Director, Simon Adams, said that, Ethiopia should “guarantee unfettered humanitarian access to all vulnerable populations in Tigray and ensure their full protection.”

● Simon Adams called on states with significant ties to Ethiopia to “withhold all military support to the government until independent investigations take place regarding the alleged destruction of refugee camps and other potential war crimes.”

● Adams states that “The international community has to increase the political cost of ongoing human rights violations in Tigray.”

● Ethiopian Chief of Staff, General Birhanu Jula, received the highest military medal from Djibouti Army Chief of Staff, General Zekaria Shiek, ordered by Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh for his “effective military leadership in the completed law enforcement operation in Tigray and his great contribution to peace and stability in the country and the region as well”.

● Alex Dewaal from the World Peace Foundation writes in an obituary of Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s longest-serving foreign minister who was killed in Tigray at the age of 71: “Under Seyoum’s guiding hand, Ethiopia became admired as Africa’s biggest contributor to peace and security, a reliable contributor of high-quality troops to peacekeeping operations, and a partner in conflict resolution.”

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

• Statement on the situation of Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia’s Tigray region
• Atrocity Alert No. 235: Central African Republic, Ethiopia and Cameroon
• General Birhanu Jula Awarded Highest Military Medal Of Djibouti
• In Memoriam: Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopian Peacemaker and Patriot

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 12 January)

● Tigray regional forces have taken Adi Berak and Daero Tekli areas from ENDF and from Eritrean forces. These are strategic locations that connect Adwa with Eritrea via Rama, a town on the border.

● Report of heavy war initiated by the Tigray regional forces on the Ethiopian and Eritrean forces at Semema and Adi-Etay. Semema is about 35 km South of Aksum.

● Footage emerged showing many vehicles of ENDF and Eritrean forces were destroyed by Tigray forces near Wukro in Tigray, following an attack by Tigray forces on an ENDF convoy a week ago.

● Radio Erena is reporting the deployment of additional Eritrean troops to Tigray in Shire, Adwa, Adigrat. Such troops are instructed to remain in the area until the situation in Tigray ‘settles down’.

● Eritreans have been called up to report for military duty.

● It is reported that Eritrean wounded military troops are not being able to return home.

● Footage is emerging of Eritrean military involved in training of troops in the ENDF-alliance in Tigray.

● Some leaders and members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the regional government of Tigray, captured by ENDF and Eritrean troops, would have passed through Eritrea. The captives would have been taken to Eritrea before being handed to Ethiopia.

● It is specifically reported that the location of a picture showing Sebhat Nega, the co-founder of the TPLF, captured by soldiers, is recognised as Mai Edaga location. This is a place in Eritrea, approximately 48 km South of Asmara near the town of Dekemhare. This would point to a modus operandi in which captured TPLF members are abducted/taken to Eritrea and held there (for some time).

● Reported in Mekelle that people who are arrested can not be handed over as basic institutional structures have been destroyed.

● It was revealed by ETV that women were raped in Mekelle in the week following the takeover by the ENDF at the beginning of December; this was reported by an unidentified man in an Ethiopian military uniform who spoke of repeated abuses against women.

● Policemen in Mekelle say that they are not paid by the interim government appointed by Addis Ababa.

● Lists of 49 names of civilians who died in the Saint Mary’s Church of Dengelat, Tigray, is circulating.

● Tension is building on the Ethiopia – Sudan border in the Fashqa triangle area. Ethiopia went 5 km into Sudanese claimed territory and five female civilians and a child have been killed by Ethiopian troops; two women are missing, as reported by Sudan. Sudanese troops are building up in the disputed areas.

● The Foreign Ministry of Sudan condemns “in strongest terms Ethiopia’s militias aggression” in the Eastern Sudan Al-Fashqa triangle. Ethiopia has accused Sudan of expanding in its territories.

● Sudan called on the international community to condemn the aggression of the Ethiopian militias.

● The Ministry of Information of Sudan reports that there is no progress on the work of the Ethiopia – Sudan Border Commission.

● Ethiopia may take the issue of the GERD-dam to the UN Security Council, if negotiations are stalled.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 12 January)

● MSF teams have been able to enter Tigray, and reports that “tens of thousands of displaced people are living in abandoned buildings and on construction sites in western areas around Shire, Dansha, and Humera towns, while others found refuge in host communities in the east and south of the region.”

● MSF states that “people have very limited access to food, clean water, shelter, and healthcare.”

● MSF teams report “many people are still hiding in the mountains and in rural areas across the region.”

● According to the MSF teams the situation is dire: “power lines are cut, water supplies are not functional, telecommunications networks are down, banks are closed, and many people are afraid to return to their places of origin because of the ongoing insecurity.”

● Food is in very short supply as the war broke out during harvest time and farmers were already coping with the locust infestation.

● Many civilians in Tigray are not yet reached by any food supplies and families face additional burdens as relatives are moving in with them due to the massive displacements in the Tigray region.

● Between three and four million people have no access to basic health care in the Central Tigray alone, the MSF Teams estimate.

● Most of the internally displaced people in Mai Kadra and Humera have left, MSF reports.

● More than 60 civilians were killed in attacks in the Metekel zone in BenishangulGumuz regional state.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 12 January)

● Eritrean refugees in Addis Ababa are abducted to Eritrea by Eritrean troops in Ethiopia’s capital.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 12 January)

● Concern raised that Ethiopia and the Horn become increasingly part of the security landscape of the Middle East and that this is a geostrategic concern.

● Expert states that the characterisation of the Tigray crisis as a “domestic law enforcement operation” is undermined by the involvement of Eritrean forces, foreign drone attacks, use of airstrikes, mechanized ground units, and ethnic militias.

● Egyptian investors in Ethiopia will seek international arbitration to protect their investments in the Tigray region and a case will be filed if no agreement will be reached. The compensation on Egyptian investments due to the war in Tigray is estimated at 2 million US$.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

• Ethiopian women raped in Mekelle, says soldier
• Ethiopia: MSF provides medical assistance to some of the most affected people in Tigray
• Egypt investors in Ethiopia request compensations for losses due to Tigray conflict 
• Ethiopia accuses Sudan of breaching border
• Ethiopia warns Sudan it is running out of patience over border dispute

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 10 January)

• Fierce fighting reported for the last two or three days on the Tekeze belt of Abi Adi of Tigray Central Zone, between Tigray forces and Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) and Eritrean forces.
• Intense fighting in the North Western zone of Tigray, Endebaguna area, specifically DebreAbay and Meili area between Tigray forces and ENDF together with Eritrean troops.
• The UN says it has no access to Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps in Tigray. Access to most parts of North, Western, Eastern and Central Tigray remains constrained as fighting continues in many areas.
• The Federal Ethiopian government has confirmed that Sebhat Nega, 86, the co-founder of the TPLF, was arrested and transported to Addis Ababa together with other TPLF affiliated officials. Sebhat Nega, also referred to as ‘Aboy Sebhat’ (‘father Sebhat’) is a retired political intellectual, former director of the Tigray Endowment Fund and director of a think tank, the Foreign Relations Strategic Study Institute in Addis Ababa until 2018.
• During the arrest of Sebhat Nega, a video broadcasted by the Ethiopian News Agency shows two soldiers in Eritrean uniforms, one sitting and one filming the arrest. The participation of Eritrean troops in the Tigray war has been confirmed by General Belay Seyoun of the North Command of ENDF.
• Reported that ENDF reinforcements of several buses loaded with soldiers and heavy trucks were seen in the Afar region and Tekeze areas. Their destinations are not yet known.
• A leaked recording of a zoom meeting shows a high ranking Ethiopian General explaining the plan to take measures on Tigrayan refugees in Sudan. “They are sheltered as refugees; we will keep on bringing them back and we will work on it”, says the General. “We will also get inside Sudan and take measures after our mission in the North (Tigray) is completed”.
• In the zoom recording the Ethiopian General also talked about the use of armed drones in the war in Tigray. “While the war was happening in front we were attacking/bombing them behind the frontlines with drones and we don’t know who is dead and alive”, said the General.
• Reported in social media that deputy commander of ENDF 33th division was killed while fighting Tigray regional forces on the Western front.
• Reported in social media that more than 160 civilians have been murdered by ENDF soldiers in Bora near Maychaw town in the Southern Tigray.
• According to a source in social media, 13 members of a family have been killed by Eritrean soldiers in a village named May Cado, near Hawzen, Eastern Tigray.
• The de facto division by the Amhara regional state of Western Tigray into two new administrative zones, entirely under Amhara administration, is carried out without legal procedure or without any official decision. The two zones are called Telemt and Humera-Welqayt-Tegede Zone. Tigrayans living in these areas are transported to Central Tigray and Amhara farmers are settled into the deserted places.
• With regards to control in Telemt or Tselemti in West Tigray, it is reported that Amhara regional forces control May Tsebri, and Tigray regional forces control most of the area to the East.
• On 9 and 10 January shooting was reported in Mekelle during evening and night.
• The UN fears “massive community transmission of COVID-19 in Tigray, increased by massive displacement and the collapse of health services.
• A new UN report said, “only five out of 40 hospitals in Tigray are physically accessible, with another four reachable by mobile networks”. It added; “ Apart from those in (the Tigray capital) Mekele, the remaining hospitals are looted and many reportedly destroyed.” AP reported that “many of the hospitals in Ethiopia’s conflict-hit Tigray region, outside its capital, have been struck by artillery during the two months of fighting”.
• The UNHCR says it has continued to register new refugee arrivals at the Sudanese-Ethiopian border.
• A global demonstration has taken place in different parts of the world, organized by Tigrayan and Eritrean members of the diaspora, demanding the war on Tigray must stop and Eritrean troops must leave Tigray immediately.
• A protest of ‘body bags’ on St Kilda beach in Australia forms a protest against ‘genocide’ in the Tigray region. Australian Ethiopians call for action on the crisis in the Tigray region.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 10 January)

• After the withdrawal of UN and African Union peacekeepers from Darfur, Sudan security forces including the Rapid Support Forces (RFS) are tasked to keep the peace and protect Darfur’s citizens. Residents of the Kalma Camp protest against the end of the peacekeeping mission by the UN and AU.
• Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia failed to agree on the way forward for talks on the GERD dam, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said. The matter is being referred back to the chairman of the African Union.
• Ethiopia blames Sudan for the breakdown of talks to resolve the GERD dam dispute. While Ethiopia and Egypt agreed to another round of talks, Sudan declined because it seeks a role for AU experts in the talks and it is angered by Ethiopia’s intent to fill the dam with or without an agreement.

Links of interest

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-10/talks-over-ethiopia-s-nile-dam-hit-another-deadlock-egypt-says
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/8/un-fears-massive-covid-transmission-in-ethiopias-tigray
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-09/australian-ethiopians-rally-in-support-of-people-of-igray/13041980
https://www.africanews.com/2021/01/10/un-camp-in-sudan-registers-new-tigrayan-refugees/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-09/st-kilda-protest-against-tigray-ethopia-alleged-genocide/13044776
https://apnews.com/article/abiy-ahmed-africa-ethiopia-united-nations-kenya-a2894a53c2b85cda6a86cdd2d6c64f11

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

• The ENDF has announced that next to the nine officials that it captured, they have also killed four other Tigrayan officials. The officials killed are the TPLF spokesman, the former head of the Tigray finance bureau, and two other core members. The ENDF did not detail how the four men were killed.
• The ENDF reinforcements that were seen moving towards Mekelle at the beginning of the week have reached Alamata. The force consists of 8 tanks, 20 buses, and 5 heavy trucks.
• Heavy gunfire has been reported in Mekelle and its outskirts. Heavy artillery bombing was reported in Wukro, North of Mekelle.
• Report that Maryam Tsiyon Church has been attacked (local people believe with the aim to take the Ark of Covenant to Addis Ababa). Hundreds of people hiding in the Maryam Tsiyon Church were brought out and shot on the square in front. The number of people killed is reported as 750.
• Satellite images have detected a fire in Baeker, Humera. Fighting has been reported in that area.
• Reported in social media that the Sudanese army would have evidence of participation of Eritrean troops in the war between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed border area, Al-Fashqa.
• Reported that Eritrean troops are currently in all administrative zones in Tigray, except the Southern zone. This includes: Tekeze area, Adigoshu, Maywoini (Geyts), Fresalem (Edris), Adebay, Ousman, Jebel, Humera, Rawyan, Bereket (Western); Shire, Endebagina, Selekleka, Adihageray, Adinebried, Sheraro, Semema (North Western); Wukro Maray, Aksum, Adwa, Rama, Egela, Zana (Central); Adigrat, Edaga Hamus, Wukro, Hawzen (Eastern).
• Extreme looting reported in the Gheralta area, and Hawzen has been seriously damaged (‘destroyed’).
• Another list of names of civilian victims in the districts of Gheralta and Enderta (Tigray) has emerged. Reportedly, the victims were killed by Eritrean troops. All the names on the list are of men.
• Reported that Eritrean soldiers use Ethiopian military uniforms as disguise but local people recognise them easily as they speak Tigrigna with an Eritrean accent. Mostly, especially in Western Tigray, the Eritrean troops are wearing the uniforms of the Eritrean army, according to reports.
• A second humanitarian worker from Dutch humanitarian NGO ZOA has also been killed in the Hitsats refugee camp, where heavy fighting is reported.
• According to the UN OCHA fighting in Tigray continues, among other locations, in the Mekelle Periphery, Shire, and Shiraro. The fighting has stopped the deployment of some of its missions.
• Unconfirmed: Sebhat Nega, 86, the co-founder of the TPLF, was arrested in a remote valley, together with defected officers from the Northern Command. Sebhat Nega, also referred to as ‘Aboy Sebhat’ (‘father Sebhat’) is a retired political intellectual, former director of the Tigray Endowment Fund and director of a think tank, the Foreign Relations Strategic Study Institute in Addis Ababa until 2018.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

• The Vice-Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, General M.H. Dugalo (‘Hemiti’ or ‘Hamediti’) met with Eritrean President Isaias in Asmara on Friday. The visit followed accusations that Eritrea is involved in the war on the Ethiopia-Sudan border. The visit was reported as a failure.  President Ramaphosa of South Africa has said that the AU appointed Special Envoys on Tigray will visit the Tigray area soon.
• President Kiir of South Sudan has called on the Sudanese government to reach a settled negotiation with Ethiopia. He made the comments following a meeting with al-Din Kabbashi, a member of the Sovereign Council, and Omer Gamar Eldin, the acting Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 08 January)

• The Global Center for the Responsibility to Protect is urging states with significant military ties to Ethiopia, to withhold military assistance until all war crimes and human rights violations have been investigated, and their perpetrators held accountable.
• A demonstration has taken place in The Hague, the Netherlands, organised by Tigray and Eritrean members of the diaspora, demanding that Eritrean troops leave Tigray immediately.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 08 January)

• UN OCHA states in a report that the situation in Tigray remains volatile. While, it believes that the situation has been improving, access to food, water, and medical supplies remains limited. The report has identified that looting of humanitarian supplies and equipment continues in some areas, including Kuiha and Lachi.
• The UN OCHA report identifies that 4.5 million people needing emergency assistance, of which 2.2 million IDPs. However only 77 thousand people in Mekelle and 25 thousand in Mai Ayni and Adi Harush refugee camps have received food support from the UN and its partners.
• UN OCHA reports that it still does not have access to Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps. Bureaucratic constraints and lack of security has made it more difficult to access many areas of Tigray.
• Sources disagree with UN OCHA’s assessment that things are going back to normal in Mekelle, Alamata, and Mehoni. Fighting has still been taking place in the area, and people are being prevented from leaving. Moreover, a critical lack of many supplies still exists in the area.
• Demtsi Woyane, DW, a TPLF aligned broadcast, has released further footage of a heavily looted buildings of Mekelle University. Multiple departments have been completely emptied.
• Since mid-November the accounts of EFFORT, the umbrella to which many companies in Tigray belong, have been frozen and reports show that its huge assets are now being ‘redistributed’ in Ethiopia.

Refugee Situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

• Ethiopian refugees in Sudan have told The World on their experiences in the conflict. A witness recounts how on his flight to Sudan he Ethiopian Federal Troops were accompanied by Eritrean soldiers. They proceeded to shoot his son twice and left him to die.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.pri.org/stories/2021-01-05/sudan-ethiopian-refugees-tell-their-stories
https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-tigray-region-humanitarian-update-situation-report-6-january-2021
https://africanarguments.org/2021/01/eritrea-in-the-tigray-war-what-we-know-and-why-it-might-backfire/
https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/finance-and-policy/tigray-conflict-could-delay-grand-renaissance-dam-negotiations/
https://www.globalr2p.org/publications/atrocity-alert-no-234-ethiopia-china-and-niger/