Tag Archive for: Politics

Sudan prevents ambassador from travelling back to Ethiopia by land

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MEMO | Sudan has prevented Ambassador Yibtalal Amero from travelling overland back to Ethiopia due to tension on the border between the two countries.

A security source told Anadolu Agency that the Ethiopian ambassador submitted a request to the security services in Khartoum on Saturday to allow him to travel by land to his country. The fact that an answer is still not forthcoming implies rejection of the application.

The authorities in Khartoum apparently fear that the ambassador’s life might be endangered due to the situation on the border and in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region. The ambassador, explained the same source, flew to Addis Ababa, where he arrived safely.

On 4 November, armed clashes erupted between the Ethiopian Federal Army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. The federal government in Addis Ababa announced on 28 November that its forces had ended their operation successfully by controlling the entire region and its capital.

Sudanese-Ethiopian relations have been tense along the border, sparked by an armed attack against the Sudanese army in Umm Durman in mid-December. Khartoum said that Ethiopian militias had seized the land of Sudanese farmers in the Fashaqa area, after expelling them by force of arms. Sudan also accused the Ethiopian army of supporting these gangs, which Addis Ababa denies, describing the armed groups are outlaws.

Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok announced last Sunday that Sudan has agreed to South Sudan mediating to resolve border disputes between his country and Ethiopia.

Witnesses: Eritrean soldiers loot, kill in Ethiopia’s Tigray

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Zenebu, who arrived home in Colorado after weeks trapped in Tigray, Ethiopia, where she had gone to visit her mother, poses for a photo Friday, Jan. 22, 2021. Huge unknowns persist in Ethiopia’s deadly conflict, but details of the involvement of neighboring Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive countries, are emerging with witness accounts by survivors and others such as Zenebu. While fighting in support of Ethiopian forces, Eritrean soldiers have been accused of killing civilians, targeting refugees and even acting as local authorities. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The Eritrean soldiers’ pockets clinked with stolen jewelry. Warily, Zenebu watched them try on dresses and other clothing looted from homes in a town in Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region.

“They were focused on trying to take everything of value,” even diapers, said Zenebu, who arrived home in Colorado this month after weeks trapped in Tigray, where she had gone to visit her mother. On the road, she said, trucks were full of boxes addressed to places in Eritrea for the looted goods to be delivered.

Heartbreakingly worse, she said, Eritrean soldiers went house-to-house seeking out and killing Tigrayan men and boys, some as young as 7, then didn’t allow their burials. “They would kill you for trying, or even crying,” Zenebu told The Associated Press, using only her first name because relatives remain in Tigray.

Huge unknowns persist in the deadly conflict, but details of the involvement of neighboring Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive countries, are emerging with witness accounts by survivors and others. Estimated in the thousands, the Eritrean soldiers have fought on the side of Ethiopian forces. They are accused of targeting thousands of vulnerable refugees from their own country, raping and intimidating locals — and now, some worry, refusing to go home.

Eritrea and Ethiopia recently made peace under Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts. But Eritrea remains an enemy of the Tigray leaders who dominated Ethiopia’s government for nearly 30 years and are now fugitives since fighting began between Ethiopian and Tigray forces in November, the result of growing tensions over power.

Ethiopia’s government denies the Eritreans are in Tigray, a stance contradicted by an Ethiopian military commander who confirmed their presence last month. The U.S. has called Eritrea’s involvement a “grave development,” citing credible reports. Eritrean officials don’t respond to questions.

Despite the denials, the Eritrean soldiers aren’t hiding. They have even attended meetings in which humanitarian workers negotiated access with Ethiopian authorities.

Now millions of Tigray residents, still largely cut off from the world, live in fear of the soldiers, who inspire memories of the countries’ two-decade border war. The recent peace revived cultural and family ties with Tigray, but Eritrea soon closed border crossings.

“If Eritrea refuses to leave, the U.N. should give us protection before we perish as a people,” a former Ethiopian defense minister, Seye Abraha, said in comments posted Sunday by a Tigray media outlet.

A spokeswoman for Ethiopia’s prime minister, Billene Seyoum, did not respond to a request to discuss the Eritrean forces.

With almost all journalists blocked from Tigray and humanitarian access and communications links limited, witness accounts give the clearest picture yet of the Eritreans’ presence.

They were first reported in northwestern Tigray, which saw some of the earliest fighting. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission cites residents of the border town of Humera as saying the Eritreans participated in widespread looting that “emptied food and grain storages.” That has contributed to growing hunger among survivors.

The account by Zenebu, a 48-year-old health care worker, is one of the most detailed to emerge — and it came from central Tigray, an area little heard from so far.

She first saw the Eritrean soldiers in mid-December. She had fled with others into the mountains as fighting approached, leaving her mother, too frail for the journey, behind. Twelve days later she returned to the town of Hawzen, needing to know whether her mother had survived.

In the darkness, she said, she stumbled over bodies, including around 70 she later realized she knew as they were identified. The ground was strewn with beer bottles, cigarettes and other trash, and “I couldn’t tell the difference between human and animal bodies.” The stench of death was strong.

A neighborhood boy, just 12, had been recruited by soldiers to do errands and then killed.

“I saw his body,” Zenebu said. “They just, like, threw him away.”

Her mother had survived, her home stripped of possessions.

People had been killed for having photos of Tigray leaders, even long-ago ones, Zenebu said, and the photos were set on fire. While she said some atrocities were carried out by Ethiopian forces and allied fighters from the neighboring Amhara region, she recognized the Eritreans by markings on their cheeks and their dialect of the Tigrinya language.

“I was more heartbroken and surprised to see the Eritreans doing that because I felt a connection, speaking the same language,” Zenebu said. “I felt we shared more of the same struggle,” while others “don’t know us like the Eritreans do.”

Residents tried to survive as food supplies dwindled. Electricity for grinding grains was gone, and medical supplies ran out. “People are starving to death,” Zenebu said.

It was worse, she said, than in the 1980s, when famine and conflict swept through Tigray and images of starving people in Ethiopia brought global alarm and she fled to Sudan.

Then, “there wasn’t house-to-house looting of civilians, weaponizing hunger, the merciless killing,” she said. “It’s worse than before.”

Zenubu eventually managed to leave Hawzen and reach the Tigray capital, Mekele, after pretending she was a resident and blending in with others traveling there. She called her family in the U.S., crying hysterically.

“I just wanted to say I was alive,” she said. Now she is unable to reach her mother.

Her account, like many, cannot be verified until communication links with Tigray are fully restored — and even then, people in Ethiopia worry that phone calls are monitored.

But another person who escaped Hawzen and arrived in the U.S. this month told the AP that Eritrean soldiers were “everywhere” and confirmed their killing and looting. He also identified them by their dialect.

“Same blood, same language,” he said, noting the close ties with Tigrayans. “I don’t know why they killed.” He spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear for his relatives.

“We are investigating credible reports of a whole range of abuses by the Eritrean forces in central Tigray, including extrajudicial executions of civilians, widespread looting and damage of public and private property, including hospitals,” Human Rights Watch researcher Laetitia Bader said, urging “immediate international scrutiny” and a U.N.-led investigation.

Other accounts come from the nearly 60,000 refugees who fled to Sudan.

“My five brothers and mother are in Axum” near the Eritrean border, a doctor among the refugees, Tewodros Tefera, told the AP. “People from Axum said Eritrean forces killed many young men.”

“I don’t know if my brothers are alive,” he said of his brothers, who are 25 to 35. His phone calls don’t go through.

A woman now in the U.S. after managing to leave Axum, who gave only her first name, Woinshet, wept as she told the AP she believes she survived because she showed Eritrean soldiers her U.S. passport instead of a local ID.

“There’s no (military) camp in Axum, just monasteries,” she said, recalling bodies left in the streets. “Why are they there?”

Other survivors have fled the Eritrean soldiers to remote areas in Tigray and called to say they have been living for weeks on leaves and dried fruit.

“I don’t know how people are staying alive,” Tewodros said.

Sudan calls on Ethiopia to close GERD deal

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Sudanese Minister of Culture and Information Faisal Saleh has expressed concern over the second filling of Ethiopia’s Great Renaissance Dam (GERD), Al-Arabiya news reported .

The dam cannot be brought into operation until Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa reach a binding agreement, he said. This is a legally confirmed document that will allow three parties to regulate the water level in the bed of the Blue Nile River.

Faisal Saleh expressed concern about Sudan amid Ethiopia’s unwavering commitment to begin the second filling of the dam in July this year, despite the lack of agreement.

“We do not agree with the imposition of a fait accompli. The Khartoum authorities are ready to give an appropriate rebuff in case of arbitrariness of Addis Ababa,” the head of the Ministry of Culture and Information said.

Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok met last week with the country’s GERD High Monitoring Committee, where he said it is unacceptable to risk the safety of the 20 million citizens whose lives depend on the Blue Nile.

Recall that in the summer of 2020, Ethiopia announced the successful filling of the Renaissance Dam (4.9 billion cubic meters) during the rainy season.

A few days later, Sudan recorded a decrease in the water level in the Blue Nile, coming from Ethiopia. This has sparked disputes between countries, including Egypt, lasting more than half a year.

The Sudanese-Ethiopian relations have been witnessing an escalating tension for weeks due to armed attacks on the borders of the two countries, which Khartoum says were carried out by Ethiopian militias backed by government forces on Sudanese territory.

On January 12, Sudan announced that Ethiopian forces launched an attack on the Al-Fashaqa area within the Sudanese borders in Gedaref State, killing 6 people, 5 women and a child.

In turn, Ethiopia accused the Sudanese forces of “seizing 9 camps” within the Ethiopian borders and “violating the agreement signed between the two countries in 1972 on border issues by invading Ethiopian territory.”

Last week, Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti accused Egypt of intensifying its destabilization efforts against Ethiopia and the volatile Horn of Africa region. “The Egyptian government is pushing Sudan to engage in a conflict with Ethiopia, in its bid to weaken both countries,” the official said.

Recently, an Egyptian official admitted Egypt’s concerted effort to delay the second filling of the GERD: “It is true that Egypt played a role in the recent Sudanese escalation, but it does not want to stir a complete military confrontation between them [Sudan and Ethiopia]. It only wants a military escalation to achieve a political solution, which is the delay of the second filling of the GERD until a final solution is reached, since filling the dam has negative repercussions on the flow of water to Egypt,” the official said.

Ethiopia’s leader must answer for the high cost of hidden war in Tigray

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The Guardian | Simon Tisdall | Abiy Ahmed should hand back his Nobel peace prize over his actions in the breakaway region that have raised the spectre of famine again.

Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s long-serving former foreign minister, was one of the foremost African diplomats of his generation. He was gunned down this month in Tigray by the armed forces of a lesser man – Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister and Nobel peace prize winner. Some suggest it was the Eritrean military, Abiy’s allies, who killed Seyoum, although their presence in Tigray is officially denied. The circumstances of his death remain murky.

As with much of the unreported, unchallenged murder and mayhem currently occurring in northern Ethiopia, murky is what Abiy prefers. When he ordered the army’s assault on the breakaway Tigray region in November, he blocked the internet, shut out aid agencies and banned journalists. It’s a conflict he claims to have won – but the emerging reality is very different. It’s a war fought in the shadows, with the outside world kept in the dark.

After humanitarian workers finally gained limited access this month, it was estimated that 4.5 million of Tigray’s 6 million people need emergency food aid. Hundreds of thousands are said to face starvation. The UN warns that Eritrean refugees in the Mai Aini and Adi Harush camps are in “desperate need of supplies” and harassed by armed gangs. Some are said to have been forcibly, illegally repatriated.

Access continues to be denied to two other camps, Shimelba and Hitsats, which have been set ablaze. Many of the camps’ residents are believed to have fled marauding Eritrean and Amhara militiamen. Satellite images published by UK-based DX Open Network reportedly show damage to 400 structures at Shimelba. Filippo Grandi, head of the UN refugee agency, points to “concrete indications of major violations of international law”.

There are persistent, unconfirmed reports of massacres, torture, rapes, abductions, and the looting or destruction of centuries-old manuscripts and artefacts across Tigray. Last week, EEPA, a Belgium-based NGO, described a massacre of 750 people at a cathedral in Aksum that reputedly houses the Ark of the Covenant. Ethiopian troops and Amhara militia are accused of the killings at the Church of St Mary of Zion, part of a UN World Heritage site. The report has not been independently verified.

Despite Abiy’s claims that the war is over and no civilians have been harmed, sporadic fighting continues, an analyst familiar with government thinking said. Thousands of people have died, about 50,000 have fled to Sudan, and many are homeless, sheltering in caves. Intentional artillery attacks have destroyed hospitals and health centres in an echo of the Syrian war, the analyst said.

Meeting this month in Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, aid workers complained Ethiopia’s government was still hindering relief efforts and demanded full access. “People are dying of starvation. In Adwa, people are dying while they are sleeping. [It’s] the same in other zones,” a regional administrator, Berhane Gebretsadik, was quoted as saying. But there has been scant response from Addis Ababa.

Official Ethiopian and Eritrean denials that Eritrean forces are operating in Tigray are contradicted by eyewitness accounts. Amid the murk, it seems clear Eritrea’s dictator-president, Isaias Afwerki, has made common cause with Abiy. The two met in Addis Ababa in October, shortly before the war was launched, to discuss the “consolidation of regional cooperation”.

Afwerki is an old enemy who runs a brutally repressive regime. But he shares Abiy’s hatred of the Tigrayan leadership that dominated the government of former prime minister Meles Zenawi during Ethiopia’s 20-year border war with Eritrea. Abiy, an Oromo from Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, made peace with Eritrea in 2018, ousted his Tigrayan rivals, and has been feuding with them ever since.

Further evidence of secret alliances comes from Somalia. The Somali Guardian reported this month that 2,500 Somali recruits were treated as “cannon fodder” after being sent to a military base in Eritrea for training, then deployed in Tigray with Eritrean forces. Dozens are reported to have been killed.

International scrutiny of Abiy’s Tigray war has been largely lacking. An exception is the EU, which has indefinitely suspended €88m in aid to Addis Ababa. “We receive consistent reports of ethnic-targeted violence, killings, looting, rapes, forceful return of refugees and possible war crimes,” Josep Borrell, the EU foreign affairs chief, said.

The UN and EU warnings, coupled with the shocking murder of the internationally respected Seyoum Mesfin, may now bring closer scrutiny. I met Seyoum, a co-founder in 1975 of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, in Addis in 2008. He was a master diplomat. According to Alex de Waal, the Africa specialist, Seyoum was a skilled peacemaker in Rwanda and Sudan who “presided over the rehabilitation of Ethiopia’s international standing” after 1991.

Abiy now risks destroying that standing. “The circumstances of Seyoum’s killing aren’t clear. The Ethiopian government is not a reliable source of information. Eritrea – which may well have carried out the assassinations – is remaining silent. The official report that Seyoum and his colleagues ‘refused to surrender’ is opaque,” De Waal wrote.

He noted that the two other elderly Tigrayans killed alongside Seyoum, aged 71, were Abay Tsehaye, who had just had heart surgery, and Asmelash Woldeselassie, who was blind. This trio hardly posed a physical threat to heavily armed troops.

Abiy seems to have lost control of events. There is anger in Mekelle, where a puppet administration has been installed, about ongoing security issues, including rapes. The threat of rural famine looms large. In the mid-1980s, mass starvation in Ethiopia shocked the world. About 1 million people died. Those horrors were subsequently vanquished by decades of hard work.

To Abiy’s great shame, the spectre of famine now haunts Ethiopia again. The good work of the past is being undone. He should hand back his Nobel peace prize and answer for his actions in Tigray.

The East African war escalates, Ethiopia accuses Sudan of occupying 9 camps

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NetEase| According to Ethiopian sources, Ethiopian ambassador to Sudan Ibtalal Amero accused the Sudanese army of occupying nine camps in Ethiopia. In Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, Amelo told representatives of the UN Truce International Organization and foreign ambassadors: “We are surprised by the Sudanese army’s attack on Ethiopian territory. Since November last year, the Sudanese army has occupied 9 camps in Ethiopia.”

While Ethiopian diplomats called on the Sudanese army to stop cross-border attacks and resolve the border issue with Ethiopia by peaceful means, the head of the Sudanese National Border Commission, General Moaz Ahmed Tango, denied that the Sudanese army “controls Ethiopia”. Territory. He said: “There is no Sudanese army on Ethiopian territory. They are all deployed in Sudan and they know the location of the border.”

At the same time, the Ethiopian army is deploying its “Armor-S1” air defense missile system to the border with Sudan. This happened against the background of the deterioration of relations between the two countries. The Ethiopian armed forces are gathering military forces in the border area with Sudan. The situation between the two countries has deteriorated due to another border dispute. The Sudanese military said that the Ethiopian Air Force of Ethiopia attacked its own targets. It is said that the attack by the Ethiopian government forces resulted in the death of civilians and the death of the Sudanese Defence Force.

The Ethiopian army is deploying reinforcements along the border with Sudan. In this case, Ethiopia will be given a special role for its air defense. Among other air defense missile equipment transferred to the border, the “Armor-S1” air defense missile and Russian radar system shipped from Russia to Ethiopia in 2019 were seen. With the help of Russian air defense missiles, the Ethiopian military intends to defend against air strikes by Sudanese fighters.

“The Ethiopian army organizes heavy weapons near the border with Sudan. Amhara has been pushing their prime minister into war. Internally against Tigray  and externally against Sudan. It seems that the end of the old empire is near!” The Sudanese side believes that the Ethiopian army is opening fire everywhere, but if the Ethiopian government forces go to war with Sudan, it will inevitably face the tragedy of total defeat.

The “Armor-S1” air defense missile performed well during the armed conflicts between Syria and Libya. The targets of the “Armor-S1” air defense missile include modern Turkish inspection and strike integrated drones. Considering the potential enemy of Ethiopia, the Sudanese Air Force uses outdated aircraft and helicopters, mainly Russian MiG-29 fighter jets and Chinese-made “Mountain Eagle” trainer attack aircraft. This modern air defense system is used in areas where conflicts may occur. The emergence of the Sudan Air Force greatly complicates the use of fighters.

Pterosaur Rainbow drones (UAV) are put into battle, attacking Ethiopian rebels at night, killing 500 people on the spot

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UAV Network 2020-11-30 | The Asian-African conflict that was just quelled a while ago finally ended with Azerbaijan’s victory. In this war, drones as a new type of military weapons showed up on the battlefield, and soon won the world’s Concerned, some experts even predict that in future wars, drones will replace armed helicopters and become the new darling on the battlefield. This is true when used in the recent conflict between Ethiopia and the “rebels”.

Satellite data provided by a US space company recently showed that buildings in areas where Ethiopia was engaged in combat with rebels were suspected of being subjected to a wide range of precision-guided strikes, and the rebels who used buildings as shelters suffered a devastating blow. In this attack, at least 500 rebels were wiped out on the spot. The Ethiopian government forces had absolute initiative at the beginning of the battle. Such a precise air strike was definitely not done by the Su-27 of the Ethiopian Air Force. It was the Ethiopian Air Force that used the killer weapon. Judging from the current situation in Ethiopia, Ethiopia and the UAE Air Force stationed in Eritrea both use this killer weapon: it is possible to armed drones. The Ethiopian side uses the Rainbow 4 weapon. The man-machine, and the UAE Air Force, is likely to use the Pterosaur 2 armed drone.

Read More China Has Been Spying On The African Union Headquarters

Both of these drones are excellent products manufactured in China, and have been exported to many countries and regions in the world. The Pterosaur 2 was developed by my country’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. The aerodynamic layout of the Pterosaur 2 and the previous Pterosaur domestic UAV is generally similar, but the size of the Pterosaur 2 is almost a circle larger than the Pterosaur, so Compared with the pterosaur, the descendant pterosaur 2 has a significant improvement over the pterosaur in terms of bomb load and maximum range. In the seven years since it was put on the market, the Pterosaur 2 has been successfully equipped in many countries, and it has achieved normalized applications. It has also performed well in actual combat. The Rainbow 4 UAV is my country’s “Rainbow” series UAV Representative products in China are also exported to the Middle East and Europe.

Read More The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels

And it shines in the struggle against the armed elements. Both types of drones represent the advanced level of Chinese drones. Compared with UAVs produced in the United States, U.S.-made UAVs have always been popular in the international arms market before China’s UAV momentum has risen, but since Chinese UAVs entered the international market many countries were immediately attracted by the ultra-high cost performance of our drones. At the same time, our drones are more durable than American drones, easy to maintain, which has successfully shaken the US drones in the international market. Dominance.

In this conflict, Ethiopia once again used Chinese domestic drones. Obviously, after the conflict in the Tigray region, the use of drones in modern warfare has also been attracted by countries all over the world and started imitation.

The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels

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UAV Network | Tencent QQ | Ethiopia: the price is too good

According to a report by TASS News Agency on December 3, the UAV deployed by the UAE in Eritrea recently participated in the Ethiopian civil war and achieved “impressive” results. Under the continuous bombing of drones, the Tigray People’s Army kept retreating, and there was no way to deal with it. The rebels could no longer hold it, and began to surrender. On December 1, the Ethiopian government stated that senior officials of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had surrendered to the Ethiopian army. The official who surrendered was Kerya Ibrahim, one of the nine important leaders of the TPLF.

The price of a U.S.-made Predator drone is about US$5 million, and the price of an American Reaper drone is about US$15 million. In contrast, the cost of a Chinese-made pterosaur drone is only about $1 million. But the performance of the Pterosaur UAV is not much different from that of the U.S. Predator. The Pterosaur UAV can also realize the integration of investigation and fighting, and has many actual combat records. The difference between the Pterosaur UAV and the Predator is mainly due to the relatively weak engine performance, which leads to the difference in the maximum ammunition capacity of the Pterosaur and the Predator. But if the price factor is taken into account, this may not be a problem at all. In addition, there are many restrictions on the purchase of U.S. military drones, but there are no more restrictions on the purchase of pterosaur drones. You can buy your own equipment and you can use it whatever you want.

In the civil war in Ethiopia, the pterosaur drones undertook a 24-hour non-stop bombing mission, which destroyed the rebels to life. In fact, the conflict between Ethiopia and Tigray was not a day or two; the government forces did not quickly win the victory over the rebels. The biggest difference was that there was no help from drones. The Ethiopian army has a lot of advanced equipment, including AR-2 rockets, etc., but it cannot fully utilize the advantages of these equipment. Tigray armed with rockets in hand and the government army are very impressive. But when the pterosaur drones joined, the situation changed quickly. Death was hovering over the heads of the rebels for 24 hours, and any heavy weapons that appeared would be quickly attacked. The drones made the rebels feel powerless, and the destruction of the period was terrible.

The Ethiopian military believes that these Pterosaur drones are too valuable. In fact, this batch of UAVs is not Ethiopian, it is likely to be the UAE. The UAE built military bases in the area in 2015 and deployed multiple pterosaur UAVs to fight against Husai. The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels. After the Ethiopian army has seen the power of the pterosaur drone, it is believed that it will also have the idea of ​​buying it. After all, it can have the ability to attack the ground without spending a lot of money, which is impossible for manned fighters. UAVs are very attractive to Ethiopia.

In recent years, drones have appeared on the battlefield more and more and have played a very important role. Both the TB-2 UAV and the Pterosaur UAV participated in the battlefield in Libya. The TB-2 UAV successfully destroyed multiple armored S air defense systems. The Pterosaur UAV pressed the GNA army before the Turkish army entered the battle. In the Naka conflict, Azerbaijan used Turkish TB-2 UAVs to destroy several Russian-made Sam-8 air defense systems, S300 air defense systems, and a large number of T72 tanks, which played an important role in winning the war. In the civil war in Ethiopia, drones once again played an important role. Many practical examples show that for small countries, drones may be more useful than manned fighters.

Ethiopias military offensive in Tigray accompanied by atrocities and internal repression

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Source: IPIS Research Briefing | Arms Trade Bulletin November – December 2020

On 4 November 2020 the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) launched a military offensive against the Tigray regional government. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dubbed it a “law enforcement operation” reportedly “to restore the rule of law and the constitutional order”. The military intervention by the ENDF was a retaliation for an alleged surprise attack by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), in the early morning of November 4, against the ENDF’s Northern Command bases in Tigray. The federal government declared a six-month state of emergency in Tigray, blocking all internet, mobile and landline communications, claiming “illegal and violent activities” were threatening the country’s sovereignty.

Internal Repression and Possible War Crimes

Meanwhile the Ethiopian News Agency announced that the House of People’s Representatives had lifted the immunity of 39 members of the House, including the President of Tigray Regional State. On 7 November police arrested two journalists. One of the editors of the Addis Standard was accused of “attempts to dismantle the constitution through violence,” and “outrage against the constitution”, while journalist Bekalu Alamirew of online Awlo Media was accused of “interviewing Tigray region officials, producing reports undermining the government, producing articles in order to defame the government and undermine its credibility in collaboration with foreign forces, producing articles photographs aimed at inciting inter-communal violence, and inciting a civil war”. Several days later the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reported the arrest of 4 more journalists.

In the days that followed calls for dialogue were dismissed by the Prime Minister. Air strikes continued to hit Tigray. Reports of possible war crimes emerged from the region. One of which took place in Mai Kadra. Two alternative accounts have been presented for the Mai Kadra massacre. One blamed a local militia linked to the TPLF, others blame Amhara militia with assistance from the ENDF. The Ethiopian army and the regional Amhara “Fano” militia have allegedly killed civilians and looted the hospital, banks, businesses, supermarkets and private houses while reportedly taking control of Humera. Tens of thousands Tigrayans fled to Sudan. The Ethiopian army chief of staff alleged that the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), who is Tigrayan and a member of the TPLF, had attempted to obtain weapons for the TPLF. This strongly denied by the WHO Director-General.

An internal U.N. security report seen by Reuters alleged that Ethiopian police visited a World Food Programme office in Amhara region to request a list of ethnic Tigrayan staff. Ethnic profiling of Tigrayans seems to have begun before the recent conflict. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said it was “gravely concerned” at reports of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans, “most notably manifested in forced leave from work and in stopping people from travelling overseas including on work missions, for medical treatment or studies”. According to William Davison, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, “the ethnic profiling demonstrates that despite the government’s stated intention to target only the TPLF leadership, this conflict is also having a much broader negative impact on Tigrayans outside of Tigray”.

The Tigrayan regional government accused Eritrea of attacking Tigray’s northern border. This was strongly denied by both the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments. But when Hitsats Refugee Camp was captured by troops fighting for the Ethiopian government on 21 November, witnesses claimed that the armed men who entered the camp were Eritrean. The New York Times was told by aid workers that the Eritrean soldiers looted aid materials and vehicles, and burnt crops. Meanwhile multiple witnesses in Humera had told AFP that during the battle for Humera they witnessed mortar bombs coming from the direction of Eritrea. In December the U.S. government cited satellite images, intercepted communications and anecdotal reports from Tigray region as evidence of Eritrean involvement.

“There Will Be No Mercy”

On 22 November the Ethiopian forces had reached Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. Earlier the ENDF warned Mekelle’s 500,000 residents that the army would “encircle” the city and attack it with artillery fire. “There will be no mercy,” a spokesman reportedly said. On 28 November PM Abiy Ahmed announced the fall of Mekelle.

On 8 December the Ethiopian government admitted that federal troops had fired at and detained United Nations workers, proclaiming it did not need a “baby-sitter”. In Geneva U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet reported that her office had received substantiated reports of human rights violations: “We have corroborated information of gross human rights violations and abuses – including indiscriminate attacks against civilians and civilian objects, looting, abductions and sexual violence against women and girls. There are reports of forced recruitment of Tigrayan youth to fight against their own communities”.

Meanwhile the Tigray regional state interim administration, installed on 7 November by the House of Federation of Ethiopia, cautioned residents of Mekelle to hand over their firearms to federal forces until December 15. It was claimed that there would be a door-to-door search and whoever was found with firearms would be held accountable. Eritrean troops in Mariam Dengelat reportedly killed 37 civilians. Ethiopian ENDF soldiers reportedly shot at unarmed civilians, and looting by Amhara militia was reported.

The UNHCR has reported the displacement of millions. Tension along the Sudan-Ethiopia border has risen due to clashes between Sudanese and Ethiopian forces.

Prelude

Ethiopia is a federation of regional ethnic states, and constitutionally large autonomy is granted to the regions. Until 2018 all regional governments were linked directly or indirectly to the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), an alliance of four regional parties [the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) and the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP)], which used to govern Ethiopia. The TPLF was the dominant force until being displaced by an alliance of the two largest Ethiopian ethnicities, the Oromo and the Amhara.

Shortly after becoming Prime Minister in April 2018 Abiy Ahmed had begun to accuse the TPLF of trying to destabilise the country. In the media the TPLF were scapegoated for all the wrongs in the country. Which led to complaints from Tigrayans that they are persecuted in a crackdown on corruption and past abuses. “It has become fashionable to blame TPLF for everything that goes wrong in the country,” said a TPLF spokesperson. In November 2019 three of the four regional parties under direction of Abiy, with the exception of the TPLF, merged into a single national party – the Prosperity Party. The 2020 elections were postponed by the Ethiopian government, due to covid-19. The TPLF saw this as a means for the PM to hold on to power, and declared to hold elections anyway. The Ethiopian government ruled the Tigray government was unlawful and in return Tigray said it no longer recognised Abiy’s administration.

According to the United Nations Comtrade database the major exporters of armaments to Ethiopia in the last decade have been Slovakia, Israel, India, Sudan and Russia.

Exports arms and ammunition to Ethiopia 2010-2019

Country

Value (usd)

Description

India

3.9 million

Various munitions

Israel

4.8 million

Civilian firearms, various munitions

Russia

22.4 million

Various munitions

Slovakia

8.4 million

Armoured vehicles, various munitions

Sudan

4.5 million

Military weapons, various munitions

Source: Comtrade HS 87.10 & HS 93

The United Nations Register of Conventional Arms adds Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Ukraine to that list. In August 2020 trade publication Janes published that Turkish armoured vehicles worth USD20.7 million had been offloaded in Djibouti with likely end destination Ethiopia.

United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, exports to Ethiopia 2010-2019

Year

Exporter

Item

Quantity
2010 Russia Attack Helicopter

8
2012 Ukraine Main battle tank (T-72)

99
2012 Bulgaria Large calibre artillery system (122mm howitzer)

64
2012 Czech Rep. Large calibre artillery system

64
2013 Bulgaria Combat aircraft (MiG-23)

12
2013 Hungary Attack Helicopter (Mi-24)

12
2019 Czech Rep. Small arms

7,742

Peter Danssaert

Further Reading

The secret war in Tigray, Ethiopia Insight, 23 December 2020.

Did Ethiopia’s attack on Tigray violate international laws?, The Conversation, 9 December 2020.

Instant Non-international Armed Conflict? Classifying the situation in Northern Ethiopia under IHL, Armed Groups and International Law, 9 December 2020.

Five reasons why Ethiopia ended up at war, Ethiopia Insight, 1 December 2020.

Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis: Escalating Violence and Mass Displacement Threaten Ethiopian and Regional Security, Just Security, 25 November 2020.

Teflon TPLF, Ethiopia Insight, 12 December 2019.

The Republic of Tigray?, Ethiopia Insight, 28 September 2019.

Is Tigray really a drop in the bucket for Abiy’s administration?, Ethiopia Insight, 17 January 2019.

On ‘Rooftop of Africa,’ Ethiopia’s Troops Hunt Fugitive Former Rulers

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NYT | Politicians and military commanders who once led Ethiopia are being tracked down, caught and sometimes killed by their own country’s soldiers in the war in the Tigray region.

By Simon Marks and Declan Walsh

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — For two decades, as foreign minister, Seyoum Mesfin was Ethiopia’s face to the world — a personable and soft-spoken diplomat who brokered peace in neighboring war-torn countries, delivered speeches at the United Nations and helped establish his country as a weighty African power.

That distinguished career came to an ignominious end last week when Ethiopian soldiers tracked down Mr. Seyoum, now labeled an enemy of the state, and killed him in a muddy and remote corner of the mountainous north of the country. The government said he died in a shootout, but Mr. Seyoum’s allies say he was executed.

The former foreign minister Seyoum Mesfin was killed last week by the Ethiopian military. | via NYT | ©Reuters

Mr. Seyoum, 71, was the most prominent casualty yet of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s 11-week-old war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. The main target of Mr. Abiy’s military campaign is not a ragtag group of provincial rebels, but the politicians and generals of Tigray, who ruled Africa’s second-most populous country for much of the past three decades through their political party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or T.P.L.F.

Now Ethiopia’s former rulers are on the run in their Tigray heartland, and on the defensive against the forces they once commanded. Since Jan. 7, Ethiopia’s military has killed or captured at least 47 people from a most-wanted list of 167 senior leaders of the T.P.L.F., including four of the party’s nine-member executive committee, according to Ethiopian state media reports.

When Mr. Abiy came to power in 2018, his government quickly unseated many of these T.P.L.F. leaders, who over 27 years had overseen impressive economic growth, but ruled Ethiopia with an iron fist. Several were charged with corruption and human rights abuses, and some of them fled or retreated to their home base in Tigray.

Mr. Abiy has portrayed his military campaign as a law-enforcement drive against Tigray’s fugitive politicians, who are backed by their own seasoned military force. The Tigrayan leaders went ahead with a regional election in September, in defiance of Mr. Abiy’s order to postpone the vote due to the Covid-19 pandemic. He said he launched his military operation on Nov. 4 in response to an attack on a federal military base in Tigray.

“The government is engaged in a stabilizing mission for a month now while it continues to bring to justice perpetrators,” Billene Seyoum, Mr. Abiy’s spokeswoman, said in a statement.

But the T.P.L.F. says that Mr. Abiy, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for resolving a long-running conflict with Eritrea, is revealing himself as yet another power-hungry autocrat. Thousands of people have died in the fighting, by most estimates, and the handful of aid workers who have been permitted to enter Tigray report human rights abuses, burned refugee camps, looted hospitals and a swelling humanitarian crisis that could lead to mass starvation.

Refugees in Tigray are “emaciated, begging for aid that is not available,” Filippo Grandi, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, said in a statement last week.

Despite Mr. Abiy’s recent military successes, the swift and bloodless victory he once promised in Tigray remains far from his grasp. The T.P.L.F. has retreated to the mountains, alongside thousands of heavily armed fighters.

Fighting has raged across the region in recent weeks, according to U.N. security reports seen by The New York Times. Human rights groups have shared accounts of atrocities against civilians, including plunder, sexual violence and killings.

And as Mr. Abiy ramps up his assault on the T.P.L.F., brushing aside international pleas to start peace talks, experts warn that he risks boosting public support for the rebels inside Tigray, and plunging his country deeper into a protracted conflict with an enemy that is unlikely to give up easily.

The T.P.L.F. “is an organization in which the guerrilla ethos of not bowing to external pressure, even when cornered and pressured, is very much in its DNA,” said Rashid Abdi of Sahan, a Kenya-based conflict analysis group specializing in the Horn of Africa. “They have said they will die to the last person. People should not underestimate that.”

Mr. Abiy’s forces — with the help of Eritrean troops — hold the regional capital, Mekelle, and much of northern and western Tigray. But sporadic fighting has continued in rural areas across Tigray, and on roads leading to Mekelle, according to Western diplomats and U.N. security assessments.

Although analysts initially estimated the T.P.L.F. had 250,000 men under arms, it quickly became clear that its force was much smaller. Government soldiers and allied ethnic militias surrounded the T.P.L.F.’s forces by sealing Ethiopia’s borders with Eritrea and Sudan, effectively severing the rebels’ supply lines.

And the T.P.L.F. received an unexpected blow when soldiers from Eritrea, Ethiopia’s former enemy, crossed into Tigray to fight alongside Mr. Abiy’s forces. In such conditions, experts say, it’s unclear how long the T.P.L.F. can hold out.

Still, the situation is fluid and unpredictable. Border clashes between Ethiopia and Sudan in recent weeks, over a patch of disputed farmland, could play to the advantage of the T.P.LF. if Sudan helps the rebels to resupply.

And the top military commanders of the T.P.L.F. remain at large. Two Western officials and one with the T.P.L.F., who were not authorized to speak publicly, identified Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a former head of the Ethiopian military, as a senior rebel leader.

General Tsadkan led Ethiopia into combat against Eritrea during the two countries’ brutal border war between 1998 and 2000. In recent years, after retiring from the army, he ran a small brewery. Now 66, he is back in the fight with the newly formed Tigray Defense Forces, battling the Ethiopian army he once commanded.

One T.P.L.F. stronghold, the Western officials said, is in the Tembien mountains, a cluster of jagged hills and narrow winding roads in central Tigray — part of a highland massif often called the “rooftop of Africa.”

Kjetil Tronvoll, an expert on the T.P.L.F. at Bjorknes University College in Oslo, said the party’s leadership has likely dispersed in small groups, to spread the risk of capture.

It was in Tigray’s central hills near the Tekeze River that Mr. Abiy’s force scored a symbolic coup earlier this month, when they captured Sebhat Nega, an octogenarian founding member of the T.P.L.F.

Ethiopian federal troops crossed tributaries of the Tekeze and hiked up steep hillsides in search of Mr. Sebhat, according to accounts on Ethiopian state television and a former T.P.L.F. official who had been in touch with Mr. Sebhat. After scaling a precipitous slope with ropes, they discovered Mr. Sebhat in a cave with his wife and sister.

Footage broadcast on state media showed a disheveled, white-bearded man in a tracksuit, being led in handcuffs off a military transport plane at Addis Ababa International Airport. Ethiopian leaders were jubilant.

“It was difficult to believe a human could live in the mountain where we found him,” said Maj. Gen. Mesele Meseret, who led the operation.

The triumphal capture of Mr. Sebhat contrasted with the more muted announcement of Mr. Seyoum’s death, which was shrouded in recriminations and conflicting accounts.

The Ethiopian government said Mr. Seyoum, a T.P.L.F. leader, died during a gunfight between his bodyguards and government soldiers. But the T.P.L.F. insisted he had been summarily executed, pointing to a photo circulating online that showed Mr. Seyoum, his eyes closed, with blood streaming from a bullet-sized wound in his forehead.

“Seyoum deserved to end his days in comfortable retirement with all the respect due to a statesman and patriot,” said Alex de Waal, a Horn of Africa scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, who knew Mr. Seyoum, and called for an international investigation into his death. “His killing should be a red line.”

But Mr. Abiy shows little sign of backing down. On Tuesday, Ethiopia’s election board formally barred the Tigrayan party from elections that Mr. Abiy has set for June 5. Some had hoped the elections might act as a spur to peace talks.

The government accuses Western media of falsely portraying Mr. Abiy as a warmonger. Critics say he is hewing to the traditions of a political culture that prizes dominance.

“Abiy is buying into an old, aggressive warrior tradition in which you vanquish your enemy,” said Mr. Abdi, the analyst. “In countries like Kenya, you weaken your enemy in order to negotiate with him later. In Ethiopia, you obliterate him.”

After two months of war, Tigray faces starvation

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The Economist | Ethiopia’s government appears to be blocking food deliveries to the region

No image better symbolises the fall from power of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (tplf), the party that had called the shots in Ethiopia for almost three decades. Sebhat Nega, one of its founders, was pictured this month in handcuffs, wearing a rumpled tracksuit and a single sock. The 86-year-old, long one of Ethiopia’s most powerful men, had been captured by the army. His party, which was pushed out of power amid massive protests in 2018, has been fighting the government led by Abiy Ahmed for the past two months. It is not going well.

Several other senior tplf figures have been killed by the army. Among them was Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s longest-serving foreign minister. The killings and arrests appear to have left the tplf in disarray. Its leaders, including the ousted president of the Tigray region, Debretsion Gebremichael, have been in hiding for over a month. Although the tplf still controls sizeable swathes of rural Tigray, it holds no towns or cities. Allies of Abiy, who has already declared victory, believe it is only a matter of time before the rest of what he calls the “junta” are captured or killed.

But time is not a luxury Tigrayans can afford. For weeks the vast majority of the region’s roughly 6m people have been without adequate food, water or medicine. According to the interim administration of Tigray, which Abiy appointed last month, more than 2m civilians have been driven from their homes. The state-appointed human-rights commission has warned of a “humanitarian crisis”. According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, run by the American government, parts of central and eastern Tigray are probably one step from famine. “We could have a million dead there in a couple of months,” frets a Western diplomat.

It is impossible to know how bad the crisis is because phone lines are down and the government has barred journalists from going to most of Tigray. It also restricts the movement of aid workers. But accounts are trickling out. In some places, especially in the north, crops have been burnt. In others, farmers abandoned their fields before the harvest.

Even where food is still available, many people have no means of getting it. Banks are closed across Tigray (apart from in Mekelle, the region’s capital). So are markets and shops. In many places fuel has run out. Inflation is rampant. “Even if you have the money, you don’t have a bank,” says Kibrom, who fled from Tigray to Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, last month. “If you have grain, you don’t have a mill. If you have a mill, you don’t have power.”

Hospitals are also running out of supplies. In most, such as the one in Humera, a town close to Sudan and Eritrea, staff have not been paid since October. A lack of electricity means medicines are spoiling—if there are any left at all. When Médecins Sans Frontières (msf), an international charity, arrived at the hospital in Adwa earlier this month, its staff found that it had been almost completely looted. “How are we going to do blood transfusions that save lives if we don’t have a refrigerator?” asks Mari Carmen Viñoles, the head of msf’s emergency unit.

The federal government disputes such accounts. “There is no starvation in Ethiopia,” said a spokesman for the federal disaster management agency on January 19th. It claims to have distributed aid to nearly 2m people in northern Ethiopia (though it is unclear how many of those were actually in Tigray).

Muferiat Kamil, the minister of peace, says her ministry is reaching citizens even in the central areas of Tigray, which are largely under the control of the tplf. This is implausible. A senior humanitarian official notes that civilians in these places are “effectively trapped”. tplf forces regularly attack military convoys, which makes it impossible for the government to deliver supplies safely. An agreement signed with the un last month to allow aid groups to travel unhindered throughout the region is not being honoured. This is probably because officials do not want them to expose war crimes or the presence of thousands of troops from neighbouring Eritrea (who are helping the government). Four un staff were shot at and detained last month for entering areas where a government official said “they were not supposed to go”.

Lorries carrying emergency supplies are also being stopped. Despite some recent improvements, the system for getting permits to let them into Tigray is slow and complex. Even when permission is granted by the central government, local authorities in neighbouring regions halt shipments, saying that they too have to give permission. Once the lorries arrive in Tigray, local army commanders stop them, citing security or perhaps because they think the food will end up in rebel hands.

It is possible that Ethiopia’s government is too incompetent to realise that its actions are likely to cause starvation. But it seems more likely that the authorities are deliberately holding back food in an effort to starve the rebels out. “The lack of humanitarian access is part and parcel of the war campaign,” says a un diplomat. Even before the war began there was an effort to blockade Tigray to weaken its leaders. In October the federal government stopped welfare payments to poor farmers.

For decades Ethiopian governments have been guilty of putting politics before people. A famine in 1973 was covered up to avoid embarrassing the government of Emperor Haile Selassie. A decade later a Marxist military dictatorship burned crops and restricted aid to Tigray in an attempt to defeat the tplf, then a ragtag band of guerrillas. There is not yet a fully-fledged famine in Tigray. But there is a real danger that history will repeat itself. ■