Tag Archive for: News and Commentary

11/01/2021 News And Commentaries

The Middle East Cold War Behind the Ethiopian Crisis. Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) 

On the ground, the fight between the Federal Army and TPLF troops has been determined by drones. The drones take off from the base of Assab that is operated by the UAE, formerly used as a base for its military operations in Yemen.

 

Ethiopian general admits the usage of ARMED drones in Tigray war, but Ethiopia doesn’t have one.

 

The Belgian based EEPA confirmed members of TPLF were killed by drone attack. EEPA Situation Report 51, 10 Jan, 2021

TPLF spokesman, Sekoture Getachew, and the former director of the Ethiopian Broadcasting Authority and journalist, Abebe Asgedom, were killed by a drone attack one month ago. They were attacked by a drone while traveling together in a car.

 

Talking and fighting about self-determination in Ethiopia. Alex de Waal | LSE

The political dispute that led to war in Tigray, Ethiopia, was sparked by contending interpretations of the right to self-determination in the country’s constitution.

… Ethiopians are fighting over self-determination. In the last few months, constitutional disputes over respective powers of the federal government and regional states have become full-scale civil war in Tigray and escalating conflicts in Oromiya, Beni Shangul-Gumuz and other regions over the right of self-determination.

… All reports from Ethiopia show that the government’s rejection of Tigrayans is being reciprocated: Tigrayans no longer feel they are wanted in Ethiopia. The notion ‘Ethiopian’ is in grave danger of reverting to being identified solely with an Amhara identity and agenda. If the Tigrayans remove themselves from the Ethiopian conversation, others may follow.

 

Food Security Analysis Ethiopia Monthly Market Watch, December 2020. WFP Monthly Market Watch

  • General inflation remained high in November 2020 at 19 percent.
  • The Birr devaluated by 27.1 percent against the US dollar and depreciated at 18.4 percent in the parallel market since November 2019.
  • The prices of food commodities escalated compared to pre-crisis levels in Tigray Region, despite cash shortages due to disrupted bank services and supply chain interruptions.
  • The security situation in Tigray region has contributed to food shortages, which disrupt both upstream input markets and downstream output markets, thus deterring food production, commercialization and stock management.

 

Negotiations over Ethiopia dam project break down. CNN

Negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, in a long-running dispute over the GERD on the Blue Nile, have reached a new impasse….

“We cannot continue this vicious cycle of circular talks indefinitely,” Sudanese irrigation minister Yasir Abbas said in a statement.

 

Ethiopia begins constructing new dam in northern Amhara region. Egypt Independent

Ethiopia broke ground on Saturday and began building a new dam worth US$125 million in North Shewa, Amhara Region. Construction is expected to be completed within three years. The dam will be … capable of storing 55 million cubic meters of water. … Upon completion, 7,000 hectares of land will be able to be developed, benefitting more than 28,000 families in the region.

 

Khartoum will resort to alternative methods to address Ethiopia Nile Dam, Sudan Foreign Minister

09/01/2021 News and Commentaries – Tigray War

Ethiopian women raped in Mekelle, says soldier. Here is an unabridged translation of the soldier’s speech. 

Why are women being raped at this time in the city of Mekelle? This is not a war time. If it were war-time it may be expected as it is not manageable. But we are here reclaiming peace and order. With local and federal police on duty and several staffs available, how come another incident happened today after the one that was reported last night?

Satellite Images Show Ethiopia Carnage as Conflict Continues. Bloomber, Politics.

Satellite images show the destruction of United Nations’ facilities, a health-care unit, a high school and houses at two camps [Hitsats and the Shimelba] sheltering Eritrean refugees in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, belying government claims that the conflict in the dissident region is largely over.

“Recent satellite imagery indicates that structures in both camps are being intentionally targeted. The systematic and widespread fires are consistent with an intentional campaign to deny the use of the camp.” said a UK based analyst, Isaac Baker.

Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General 08.01.2021

We, along with our partners, have been able to access areas that have been previously inaccessible. Localized fighting and insecurity continues, with fighting reported in rural areas and around Mekelle, Shiraro and Shire, in the Tigray province.

Access to most parts of north-western, eastern and central Tigray remains constrained due to the ongoing insecurity and bureaucratic hurdles, and two of the four refugee camps in the region (Hitsats and Shimelba) are still not accessible.

… We estimate that 2.3 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance in Tigray, including 1.3 million additional people due to the conflict and over 950,000 people already there, including refugees.

A glimpse into the health impact of Tigray war, OCHA, 08.01.2021

Only 5 out of 40 hospitals in Tigray are physically accessible, while four additional hospitals are reachable through mobile network. Apart from those in Mekelle, the remaining hospitals are looted and many reportedly destroyed, which, in addition to the insecure environment and non-payment of salaries, has halted basic health services and displaced staff.

The interruption of COVID-19 surveillance and control activities for over a month in the region, coupled with mass displacements and overcrowded conditions in displacement setting is feared to have facilitated massive community transmission of the pandemic.

Full and unrestricted humanitarian access must be granted. EU

The top 10 crises the world should be watching in 2021. The International Rescue Committee’s annual Emergency Watchlist.

War Crimes of Eritrean Troops in Tigray, reported by Jan Nyssen, full professor of geography at Ghent University (Belgium). Here is an excerpt from the report on some of the incidents observed by eyewitnesses in and around Adigrat:

  • On 18 November, Eritrean soldiers killed 59 civilians inside their houses in the border town of Zalambessa;
  • On 24 November, Eritrean soldiers drove a pick-up truck with machine guns through the central street of Adigrat and shot indiscriminately at shops, private residences, and passers-by. Several civilians were reportedly killed and wounded, including women and children;
  • On 25 November, a group of 8 – 15 citizens (according to different witnesses) stood guard at the Addis Pharmaceutical Factory in Adigrat when they were handcuffed and executed by Eritrean soldiers;
  • On 25 November, Eritrean soldiers shot 8 civilians inside their houses in the town of Hawzen.
  • On 30 November, Eritrean troops killed more than 80 people in the Church compound of Maryam Dengelat, situated 5 kilometres to SW of Idaga Hamus;
  • Staff of Dashen Brewery in Gondar informed us that their Branch Manager in Adigrat, ayte11 Isayas Asgedom, was also murdered that day at Maryam Dengelat, together with his family;
  • Around 2 – 12 December, 24 men in the village of Abraha Atsbaha were ordered by Eritrean troops to dig graves for fallen soldiers. When the men had finished, they were executed by Eritrean soldiers;
  • Around 1 – 14 December, 13 boys aged 12 – 15 years old from the village of Tokot near Idaga Hamus were ordered by Eritrean troops to load looted materials onto a truck. When they had finished, the 13 boys were shot dead by the Eritrean soldiers.
  • Around 12 – 14 December, Eritrean troops looted the Negash mosque, the most ancient centre of Islam outside Arabia, which has also been shelled. 81 (mostly Orthodox Christian) villagers were killed while trying to protect the holy site from looting;
  • Wukro has been heavily damaged mainly by organised looting, including St Mary College and the Catholic mission; the Sheba Leather Factory has been destroyed and local youth protecting the place killed in big numbers; and
  • Around 17 – 20 December, 750 inhabitants of the town of Aksum were killed by Eritrean troops when they tried to prevent them from looting the Maryam Tsion Church in the town.

Podcast

International Crisis Group. 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021.

IPIS Briefing December 2020 – Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict

Sudan declares full control of border territory settled by Ethiopians | 31 December 2020 | Reuters

Sudan said on Thursday its forces had taken control of all of Sudanese territory in a border area settled by Ethiopian farmers, after weeks of clashes.

Is Ethiopia the Next Yugoslavia? | 31 December 2020 | Foreign Policy

A country that once seemed to hold great promise for peaceful democratization has descended into conflict. Here’s what could happen next.

Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict revives bitter disputes over land | 30 December 2020 | Business Recorder

As rifle-toting militiamen fired celebratory rounds into the air, young men marched through the streets denouncing the former ruling party of Ethiopia’s Tigray region as “thieves.”

Reuters cameraman detained in Ethiopia has seen no evidence against him, lawyer says | 30 December 2020 | Reuters

Reuters cameraman Kumerra Gemechu has been held in solitary confinement for nearly a week without charge or being given any evidence of wrongdoing, his lawyer said.

Arrest of Cameraman in Ethiopia Signals Wider Crackdown | 29 December 2020 | NYT

The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has stepped up the arrests of journalists since going to war in the country’s northern region of Tigray.

Tigray crisis: Eritrea’s role in Ethiopian conflict | 28 December 2020 | BBC News

In a sign of the changing political fortunes of a man who was once a pariah, Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki has proven to be a staunch ally of Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize winner and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, giving his troops much-needed support to fight the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Tigray.

Ethiopian police arrest Reuters cameraman | 28 December 2020 | Reuters

A Reuters cameraman, Kumerra Gemechu, was arrested in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on Thursday and will be kept in custody for at least two weeks, his family said. He has not been charged.

Ethiopia accused of war crimes in Mai Kadra massacre | 27 December 2020 | Morning Star

Investigations into potential war crimes committed during Ethiopia’s military offensive against the northern Tigray region must be impartial, thorough and transparent, the United Nations said today.

Ethiopia: Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union | 25 December 2020 | Council of the EU

The European Union is closely following the crisis in Ethiopia. The EU remains concerned by the humanitarian situation, as well as allegations of human rights violations and ethnic targeting. Ongoing reports of non-Ethiopian involvement raise additional worries.

The secret war in Tigray | 23 December 2020 | Ethiopia Insight

The intervention has been covert to mask the involvement of Eritrean troops, control the narrative, and obscure civilian suffering. International action is needed.

Eritrea: Who Will Call Out Eritrea’s War Crimes in Tigray? | 23 December 2020 | African Arguments | AllAfrica

Eritrea has deployed most of its army in Tigray region of Ethiopia. This is no secret. At minimum, 12 divisions have been fighting inside Tigray. At first, the United States gave Eritrea a free pass, expressing “thanks to Eritrea for not being provoked” into retaliating after a TPLF rocket attack on Asmara. Later it admitted that Eritrea was a belligerent. The United Nations Secretary General repeated Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed’s assertion that Eritrean troops had not crossed the border. The Chairperson of the African Union has carefully said nothing on the issue.

U.N. pushes for war crimes probe in Tigray (video) | 23 December 2020 | Reuters

The United Nations has appealed for tens of millions of dollars to help refugees from Ethiopia’s Tigray and wants a team on the ground in the northern Ethiopian region to investigate alleged violations of human rights.

Violations of International Law Imperil Civilians in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region | 22 December 2020 | VoA News

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michele Bachelet, is warning that civilians in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are in extreme peril amid allegations of widespread violations, some possibly amounting to war crimes.

Tigray: Hundreds of civilians reported killed in artillery strikes, warns UN rights chief | 22 December 2020 | UN News

Reports of artillery strikes on civilians and mass killings of non-combatants in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, must be investigated and full access granted to independent investigators, UN rights chief Michelle Bachelet said on Tuesday.

Le Tigré, en Ethiopie, une région en souffrance | 22 December 2020 | RTBF

L’Ethiopie est un pays d’Afrique particulièrement marqué par la diversité de ses peuples. On y trouve plus de 80 ethnies différentes dispersées géographiquement. Cette diversité de cultures fait de l’Ethiopie une terre particulièrement riche mais aussi fertile aux conflits.

Éthiopie: un rapport documente les atrocités commises dans le Tigré | 20 December 2020 | RFI

Depuis le début du conflit dans le Tigré, au nord de l’Éthiopie, le 4 novembre, près de 50 000 réfugiés ont traversé la frontière pour trouver refuge au Soudan voisin. Leurs témoignages ont été recueillis par la presse internationale qui s’est fait l’écho de leurs histoires individuelles. Un rapport basé sur plusieurs de ces témoignages, publié le vendredi 18 décembre, permet de mieux comprendre ce qui s’est déroulé, pendant un mois, dans cette province éthiopienne coupée du monde.

Éthiopie: poursuite des combats au Tigré, menace d’extension du conflit | 19 December 2020 | RFI

En Éthiopie, les combats continuent au Tigré sans que l’on puisse savoir exactement où ils se situent car les télécommunications sont toujours coupées dans l’ensemble de la province. Cela fait désormais 45 jours que le Premier ministre Abiy Ahmed a lancé son offensive. Une opération qu’il estime terminée bien qu’aucun des leaders du parti du tigréen TPLF n’ait été arrêté pour le moment.

Ethiopia offers reward for word on fugitive Tigrayan leaders | 18 December 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia offered a 10 million birr ($260,000) reward on Friday for information on the location of fugitive leaders of a rebellious force in northern Tigray region.

The War in Tigray Is a Fight Over Ethiopia’s Past—and Future | 18 December 2020 | Foreign Policy

The current conflict is the latest battle in a long-running war over the country’s identity as a unitary or federal state. The United States can restore its credibility as an honest broker by helping resolve it.

Sudan claims its officers were ambushed by Ethiopian forces | 17 December 2020 | DefenceWeb

A number of Sudan armed forces officers were ambushed by “Ethiopian forces and militias” during a security patrol of the border region.

Inside a Military Base in Ethiopia’s Tigray: Soldiers Decry Betrayal by Former Comrades | 17 December 2020 | US News

Rebellious soldiers used government tanks to attack their former comrades in a military base in the first chaotic days of Ethiopia’s month-long war in the region of Tigray, according to two soldiers caught in what they described as a 10-day siege.

Ethnic profiling of Tigrayans heightens tensions in Ethiopia | 16 December 2020 | The New Humanitarian

The fighting between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) wasn’t a surprise to Tigrayans living in Addis Ababa: They had seen it coming for years. What they didn’t expect was to be living in fear so far away from the front lines.

Did Ethiopia’s attack on Tigray violate international laws? | 15 December 2020 | The Africa Report

A legal scholar weighs in on the decision taken by Ethiopian prime minister Ahmed Abiy to send troops into the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, to quell what the government sees as an insurgency.

Ruling party members speak of need to repeat Tigray military operation in Benishangul Gumuz as Amhara region | 15 December 2020 | Addis Standard

Members of the Benishangul Gumuz Regional State Prosperity Party (PP) Women’s League have demanded the federal government to repeat in Benishangul Gumuz regional state, Metekel Zone the ongoing “law enforcement operations in Tigray.”

Mekelle’s plight: A doctor’s account of Ethiopia’s Tigray war | 14 December 2020 | al Jazeera

Doctor at regional capital’s main hospital offers dramatic account of dire medical shortages, threat of starvation and widespread fear during the conflict.

US says reports of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia’s Tigray are ‘credible’ | 11 December 2020 | DefenceWeb

The United States believes reports of Eritrean military involvement in the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are “credible,” a State Department spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday, despite denials by both nations.

Ethiopia volatile with fighting, ethnic profiling of Tigrayans – UN rights boss | 9 December 2020 | Reuters

The situation in Ethiopia is “worrying and volatile” as fighting in the Tigray region continues amid reports of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans including in Addis Ababa, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said on Wednesday.

Ethiopie : Accès interdit au Tigray | 9 December 2020 | Sahel Intelligence

Le Secrétaire général de l’ONU, Antonio Guterres, a exhorté le gouvernement éthiopien à rétablir rapidement l’état de droit au Tigray et assurer un accès sans entrave de l’aide humanitaire dans la région.

Ethiopia says U.N. team shot at in Tigray after defying checkpoints | 8 December 2020 | Reuters

A United Nations team visiting refugees in Ethiopia’s war-hit Tigray region had failed to stop at two checkpoints when it was shot at over the weekend, the government said on Tuesday, proclaiming it did not need a “baby-sitter”.

Eritreans caught in dilemma over Tigray conflict | 7 December 2020 | Ethiopia Insight

Many Eritreans, including those that oppose President Isaias Afwerki’s rule, are in a dilemma regarding the conflict in Tigray. Most Eritreans agree that he is the mastermind of it and stand against any involvement by their country. There is also a die-hard few that believe he is doing this in the interests of Eritrea.

Ethiopia’s Abiy Denies Guerrilla War Emerging in Tigray | 7 December 2020 | VoA

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed denied on Monday that a rebellious northern force his troops have battled for over a month would have the capacity to mount a guerrilla war from the mountains of Tigray.

La guerre du Tigré, prélude à l’éclatement de l’Ethiopie sur le modèle de l’ex Yougoslavie ? | 6 December 2020 | Atlantico.fr

Depuis plus d’un mois déjà, une guerre particulièrement meurtrière secoue le nord de l’Ethiopie dans la province fédérale du Tigré. Elle a déjà causé des milliers de morts et plus de 50.000 réfugiés aujourd’hui accueillis dans des conditions précaires au Soudan.

‘Now I have nothing’: Tigray conflict has changed Ethiopia for ever, say refugees | 6 December 2020 | The Guardian

Before shelling by Ethiopia’s army ripped through Humera in early November, life in the airy, agricultural city in Tigray was idyllic, says Brhane Haftu, a geography teacher.

En marge du conflit au Tigré, l’armée soudanaise reprend une partie du triangle d’el-Fashaga | 6 December 2020 | RFI

La tension monte à la frontière entre l’Éthiopie et le Soudan, notamment dans la région du triangle d’el-Fashaga, une zone dont la démarcation pose problème entre les deux pays depuis des décennies. Or, à la faveur du conflit au Tigré, l’armée soudanaise a pris possession d’une partie de ce territoire agricole.

Fighting flares in Ethiopia’s Tigray as army says closing in on rebellious force | 5 December 2020 | Reuters

Bombing, looting and skirmishes persisted in parts of Ethiopia’s Tigray on Saturday, a rebellious force in the northern region said after government troops declared they were within days of capturing the group’s leaders.

Eritrea’s Role in Ethiopia’s Conflict and the Fate of Eritrean Refugees in Ethiopia | 4 December 2020 | African Arguments

In the following article, Mesfin Hagos (founding member of the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) in the 1970s who served as Minister of Defense in the 1990s), the most authoritative voice on Eritrean military affairs, reveals the extent of Eritrean involvement in the Ethiopian war.

Ethiopia’s war in Tigray shows no signs of abating, despite government’s victory claims | 4 December 2020 | The Washington Post

Clashes continued across Ethiopia’s Tigray region and humanitarian aid remained paused at its border Friday, despite government claims that military operations had ceased and pledges to allow U.N. agencies access to hundreds of thousands of people who rely on them for food.

Ethiopie : les 5 clés pour comprendre la guerre au Tigré | 4 December 2020 | Agence Ecofin

Depuis plusieurs semaines, la région du Tigré en Ethiopie est le théâtre d’un conflit sanglant entre le gouvernement central siégeant à Addis-Abeba et le Front pour la libération du peuple du Tigré (TPLF). Au cœur de ce nouvel épisode de guerre civile, des revendications indépendantistes du TPLF qui ne reconnaît plus l’autorité du pouvoir central. Mais les racines de ce conflit sont plus profondes. Il est en réalité le résultat de frustrations et de tensions accumulées, dues au passé politique de l’Ethiopie et à son système de gouvernance. Décryptage.

Ethnic Cleansing Feared as Ethiopia Wages War on Tigray Region Amid Communication Blackout | 3 December 2020 | DemocracyNow

The United Nations has reached a deal with Ethiopia’s government to allow humanitarian access to the northern Tigray region and start providing aid. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched military action against regional forces one month ago, setting off a bloody conflict and adding to the already alarming number of displaced people and refugees in the country and neighboring nations.

Why Ethiopia’s Tensions Are Boiling Over in Tigray | 3 December 2020 | The Washington Post

Long-standing tensions between Ethiopia’s federal government and the northern state of Tigray have escalated into all-out conflict. In early November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered the military to respond to a raid on an army camp in the restive region. After almost four weeks of fighting, Abiy said his forces had taken full control of Tigray.

Le Tigré sera-t-il le tombeau de l’Éthiopie ? | 3 December 2020 | Le Point

ANALYSE. La rébellion au Tigré menace d’aboutir à une sécession qui pourrait en entraîner d’autres et mettre à mal le fédéralisme ethnique éthiopien. Voilà pourquoi.

Tigray: War drums were sounding for two years | 3 December 2020 | The Standard

I grew up in Ethiopia during the days of the military government. For years before its overthrow in 1991, the national army was locked in a protracted war against rebel movements in the north. It was common in those days to hear state media reporting the capture or recapture of towns from rebel forces. The parading of prisoners of war made daily headlines.

Ethiopia war may turn into guerrilla insurgency, experts say | 2 December 2020 | DefenceWeb

Ethiopia’s nearly month-long war against rebellious northern forces may be transforming into a guerrilla conflict, experts said on Tuesday, even though federal troops declared victory after capturing the Tigrayan regional capital at the weekend.

Éthiopie : les principales dates du conflit armé au Tigré | 30 November 2020 | TV5 Monde

Les hôpitaux de Mekele sont débordés. Depuis l’annonce de la prise de contrôle de la capitale du Tigré par le gouvernement éthiopien, les blessés affluent. Les civils sont les premières victimes de la vaste opération militaire lancée le 4 novembre par le Premier ministre Abiy Ahmed. Aucun bilan précis n’est disponible, mais plus de 43.000 Ethiopiens ont fui au Soudan voisin. Comment est né ce conflit armé ? Qui en sont les principaux acteurs ? Rappel des faits.

Ethiopia’s PM savours victory, Tigrayan leader says war not finished | 30 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed lauded his troops on Monday for ousting a rebellious northern movement, but the leader of Tigrayan forces said they were still resisting amid fears of a protracted guerrilla conflict.

Once enemies, Ethiopia and Eritrea ally against Tigray | 29 November 2020 | DW

Eritrea has been involved in the Tigray crisis in Ethiopia from day one, experts have said. But even though the two countries are fighting together against a common enemy, that does not make them friends.

Separatism in Africa: Exploring colonial legacies | 3 December 2020 | DW

Diverse secessionist movements are back in the spotlight in Africa. The Tigray Region in Ethiopia is only one example. The roots often go back to the colonial era, and some of these conflicts still smolder today.

Ethiopia among top five in the International Rescue Committee’s 2021 Emergency Watchlist

Ethiopia features on the International Rescue Committee’s annual Emergency Watchlist for the third year in a row but rises into the top five for the first time due to escalating conflict.

Here are four reasons Ethiopia is one of the countries most at risk of humanitarian catastrophe in 2021, for the third year in a row:

  • Conflict in the Tigray region sparks refugee movements amid allegations of violence against civilians.
  • Ongoing political tensions increase the risk of instability across the country.
  • COVID-19 more than doubles the number of people in need of humanitarian aid.
  • Ethiopia is the epicenter of the largest locust outbreak in decades.

Read full story here.

07/01/2021 News and Commentaries – Tigray War

Tigray war

Ethiopian army Major-General Belay Seyoum confirms the presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray. Here is an unabridged translation from a YouTube Video.

“Our door, our sovereignty must be guarded by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF). It is true. The main mission of the ENDF is to safeguard our sovereignty. But we should also think about who stood against safeguarding our sovereignty. Our army was first attacked at the border, then an unwanted foreign force entered our territory. Are we the ones who let it in? No, we don’t want it. Personally, as a defense force, we feel bad. It’s our country. We know the problem that arise. It hurts. But who let them in? Wasn’t it intentional? It was the army defending the border that got killed. Then who would stop them from entering. They came in on their own. I think this should be clear. My conscience does not allow me to ask for help from the Eritrean army. Our problem is ours. We can solve it on our own. We have the capacity to solve our own problem.” 

Ethiopia blocking Tigrians from fleeing to Sudan. The Ethiopian Federal Army deployed more troops on the border area to prevent people fleeing the war in the Tigray region to cross into Sudan. Sudan Tribune

Refugees entering Sudan on the rise recently. The head of the emergency room for the housing of Ethiopian refugees in eastern Sudan confirmed on Wednesday the recent increase in the number of Ethiopians seeking refuge and protection in Sudan. Over 60,000 refugees have fled over the border to Eastern Sudan; with thousands having arrived over the weekend. Sudan Tribune

About 2.2 million people have been internally displaced in Tigray since fighting erupted in November with about half fleeing after their homes were burned down, a local appointed government official said. Reuters

● Ethiopia’s ‘Regional Special Forces’. The northern part of Ethiopia has seen a lot of conflict over the past year. One aspect of the fight is the emergence of ‘special forces’ units on a regional basis. Read more in “Regional Special Forces: threats or safeties?”The Reporter, January 2, 2021.

The Special Briefing. Back from the brink: global precedents, OZY.COM

In the early 1990s, more than a million people died in the country’s first civil war, which led to the formation of present-day Eritrea. And this past November, the critical East African nation seemed on the verge of another civil war amid backlash against democratic reforms launched by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed — just a year after he won a Nobel Prize for reopening the Ethiopia-Eritrea border following two decades of tensions. For now, Ahmed has mostly quashed the rebellious Tigray forces, but this could be short-lived.

Opinion, Courier Journal

Using the pandemic as an excuse, Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian prime minister, canceled elections. When the head of the government of Tigray, an internal region of Ethiopia, questioned the legitimacy of Ahmed’s rule that has continued after his term expired, Ahmed sent troops to “seize” Tigray. This caused a civil war, created thousands of refugees and destabilized Ethiopia’s neighborhood.

Metekel, Benishangul Gumuz

While the Tigray war rumbles on, violence elsewhere is spreading to an extent the central government cannot ignore. How Addis Ababa deals with ethnic violence in the region of Benishangul-Gumuz will determine the country’s future. Foreign Policy

More than 101,000 people have been displaced due to violence in Ethiopia’s Benishangul-Gumuz regional state since July 2020. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA)

Al-Fashqa, Ethiopia – Sudan border conflict

● Amhara militias are “asserting a renewed aggressiveness on the border [to Sudan] that could result in further provocations … If left unchecked, it represents the kind of ‘low probability, high impact’ scenario that could have devastating and far-reaching consequences.” Bloomberg

Ethiopia accused Sudanese troops of killing “many civilians” in recent fighting over contested land at the nations’ border. Bloomberg

● Sudan army thwarted two major attacks by Ethiopian militia on Al Fashiqa. Media News Sudan

●  A force of the Airborne Corps and Military Intelligence responded to an attack launched by Ethiopian forces equipped with heavy weapons.”  Sudan Tribune.

The Horn and GERD

Tigray conflict threatens the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Power Technology

The outbreak of fighting in Tigray in November 2020 threatens to distract governments from the continuing negotiations. The conflict is between the Ethiopian government and the region’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Both sides have accused each other of committing atrocities during the fighting. As of December 2020, it is estimated that several thousand people have been killed and up to one million people have been displaced.

War of words over stalled Nile dam talks, Al-Monitor

“Egypt has turned Ethiopia into a [danger zone] to escape its own internal problems, as there are tens of thousands of Islamists inside prisons in Egypt. … It is using such matters to avoid internal Egyptian issues and focus its attention on the GERD.” Dina Mufti, Spokesperson of the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

“Such an offense on the Egyptian state and allegations about its internal affairs is nothing but a continuation of the approach of using a hostile tone and fueling emotions as a cover for Ethiopia’s multiple failures, both domestically and externally.” Ahmed Hafez, spokesperson of Foreign Ministry of Egypt

Ethiopia’s Hydro-Hegemony Has Arrived. National Interest

The dam dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt most often garners international press, but the cases impacting Kenya and Somalia show that the pattern of Ethiopian defiance of international norms cuts deeper. While Ethiopia’s hydro-hegemony predates Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the Nobel Laureate’s increasing domestic failures have led him to double down on Ethiopian defiance and intransigence. This is his way of presenting himself as a nationalist. Also, this has led Abiy to increasingly lash out at the United States by claiming that U.S. mediation has led to unfair restrictions, power limitations, and back-door colonialism.

Podcast

As Conflicts Mount, Where Does Ethiopia Go from Here? Ethiopia has declared that its main military operation in northern Tigray is over, but fighting persists and existential questions hang over the country’s transition. Adem Kassie Abebe and Alan discussed how Prime Minister Abiy should navigate the troubled waters ahead. The Horn

 

05/01/2021 News and Commentary

Ethiopia in Crisis

Ethiopia’s total debt reached 51% of its GDP

Ethiopia’s total domestic and foreign debt has reached 54.7 billion US Dollar (2.01 trillion birr)  (50.8 percent of the country’s GDP), according to a recent government debt statement.

Source: Reporter 

Desert outbreak in Ethiopia caused 356, 286 metric tonnes of cereal loss

In a joint assessment report by the Ethiopian government and FAO, the desert outbreak in Ethiopia alone caused 356, 286 metric tonnes of cereal loss, along with the destruction of 197,000 ha of cropland, and 1.35 Million ha of pasturelands.

Source: Space in Africa. Satellite Imagery for the Locust Invasion Crisis in Eastern Africa.

Update: The outbreak of desert locusts could reduce production by 3.8 million quintals (ተከስቶ የነበረው የበረሃ አንበጣ ወረርሽኝ የ3.8 ሚሊዮን ኩንታል ምርት ቅናሽ ሊያመጣ እንደሚችል ተጠቆመ።)

ምንጭ: Reporter

4.5 million people seeking urgent humanitarian assistance in Tigray

According to the Interim government of Tigray, more than 4.5 million Tigrayans (of which roughly half are children) are seeking urgent humanitarian assistance. There are also 2.2 million IDPs within the region.

Source: ETV Tigrigna on Facebook

2.3 Million Children Without Access To Humanitarian Aid

“Following the recent crisis in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, an estimated 2.3 million children have been left without access to necessary humanitarian aid. Critical medical supplies provided by international organizations, including vaccines, emergency medications, and sanitation items, are likely running low, as communication and transportation into the region is limited. … About 45% of those crossing the border into Sudan are children. Those remaining in Tigray are currently living without electricity, and running water.”

Source: The Organization for World Peace

Tigray is an ideal staging post for an insurgency

In 2020 Ethiopia plunged into chaos. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, fresh off a 2019 Nobel Peace Prize win, has declared war on the restive province of Tigray. The government claims that the military operation ended after the capture of the Tigray capital, but there are fears that a gorilla conflict will drag on. The region is an ideal staging post for an insurgency, featuring rugged mountain terrain as well as the “gateway to hell”, the Danakil Depression. This sparsely populated desert is one of the lowest and hottest places on earth.

Sources: Explorers Web “The World’s Most Dangerous Places”

TPLF will likely continue to exist as a low-intensity insurgency and many local actors will reject the Ethiopian-appointed state leadership.

Source: Stratfor, 2021 Annual Forecast

ENDF graduated newly trained members

The new recruits were drawn from various parts of the country trained in various military techniques in Tolay, Hurso, & BirSheleko training camps.

Source: EBC News on Facebook

GERD and the HoA

Russia to Establish Navy Base in Sudan for at Least 25 Years

Russia has signed an agreement with Sudan to establish a navy base in the African nation for at least a quarter century, part of Moscow’s efforts to expand its global reach.

Source: Military.com

Pompeo signs order removing Sudan from terror sponsors list

Egypt’s leader meets US treasury chief ahead of Sudan visit

The office of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said in a statement the president and US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin discussed mutual and regional issues, including the latest developments in talks with Sudan and Ethiopia over a disputed dam that Ethiopia is building over the Blue Nile River.

Source: Arab News

Egypt has agreed to reopen airspace with Qatar

 … to end a three-year rift between Qatar, GCC states and Egypt

Source: Doha News

President Trump’s late pullout appears to put politics over antiterror strategy

Since Islamic State lost its physical caliphate in Syria and Iraq, unstable parts of Africa have become more appealing for jihadists looking to claim territory and plot attacks on the West. ISIS has a small presence in Somalia but the greatest threat is al-Shabaab.

Source: WSJ

The U.S. Withdraws from Somalia (Podcast).

Discussing President Trump’s decision to withdraw American force from Somalia.

Source: Long War Journal

The Evolution of the Islamic State Threat in Africa 

Abstract: The annus horribilis Islamic State Central suffered in 2019, during which the group lost the last stretch of its “territorial caliphate” in Iraq and Syria and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed, does not appear to have had a discernible impact on the overall operational trajectory of the Islamic State threat in Africa. Post-2019, the Islamic State’s West Africa Province sustained around the same high level of violence while Islamic State provinces in Libya, Sinai, and Somalia remained pernicious, though generally contained, threats. In some parts of Africa, the group grew as a threat. Both wings of the Islamic State’s new Central Africa Province as well as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara wing of the Islamic State’s West Africa Province escalated their violent campaigns post-2019. The Islamic State’s province in Algeria remains effectively defunct, and though the Islamic State affiliate in Tunisia failed to conduct major attacks, it remained active. As the authors stress in this article and an upcoming book, the overall resilience of the Islamic State in Africa should not be a surprise; it underscores that while connections were built up between Islamic State Central and its African affiliates—with the former providing, at times, some degree of strategic direction, coordination, and material assistance—the latter have historically evolved under their own steam and acted with a significant degree of autonomy.

Source: Combating Terrorism Center

04/01/2021 – News and Commentary – Tigray War

Tigray conflict renewed. Sudan refugee crises spiked. 

“The flow of Ethiopian refugees fleeing an armed conflict in Tigray into Sudan has increased over the past few days as the violence has flared up, Sudanese authorities said on Monday. … The number of those fleeing due to the armed conflict, which was renewed between the two parties in recent days, has increased … A total of 61,458 Ethiopians have entered Sudan since the conflict broke out in early November.”

Source: La Prensa Latina

Access to Tigray remains restricted. UK deeply concerned.

“We are deeply worried about the risks the conflict poses to civilian lives and Ethiopia’s overall stability. … Access to Tigray remains restricted.”

Source: African Minister, James Duddridge MP

Interim Mayor of Mekelle admits presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray

“Interim Mayor of Mekelle city, Ataklti Haileselassie, admits presence and participation of Eritrean forces in Tigray war” amid consistent denial by officials both in Addis Ababa and Asmara.

Source: Addis Standard

Amhara police chief admitted preparations already completed before the war brokeout on November 4

Amhara region police chief, Commissioner Abere Adamu, reveals how region’s police force guided federal steel-clad mechanized forces to join “war” in tigray.

Commissioner Abere also revealed that Amhara regional state had “already done [its] homework,” and “deployment of forces had taken place in our borders from east to west. The war started that night after we have already completed our preparations,” he told an audience to several rounds of applause.

Source: Addis Standard

A tripartite talk on GERD resumed, negotations to be held on January 10, 2021.

A tripartite talk on Renaissance Dam resume amid political tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia and border conflict between Sudan and Ethiopia. This week’s talks will pave the way “for the resumption of tripartite negotiations on Sunday January 10 in the hope of concluding by the end of January”, Sudan’s Water Ministry noted.

Source: DW

Sudan boycotted the tripartite ministerial meeting today

“Sudan boycotted the tripartite ministerial meeting held on Monday to discuss the disputed issues regarding the Ethiopian Dam. The meeting was held in the presence of water resources ministers from both Egypt and Ethiopia. … Sudan boycotted the meeting after it had received no response to its call for a bilateral meeting with the experts and observers of the AU on Sunday.”

Source: Daily News Egypt

“Never miss a good chance to shut up.” ― Will Rogers

 “An advisor to occupants of the prime minister’s office for over two decades, Arkebe Oqubay, is vying for the top job at a UN agency.”

Source: Africa Intelligence

IPIS Briefing November 2020 – Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict

Source: IPIS Briefing November 2020

Leader of Tigray’s forces tells Ethiopia PM to ‘stop the madness’ | 30 November 2020 | Al Jazeera

The defiant leader of Ethiopia’s rebellious Tigray region has called on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to “stop the madness” and withdraw troops from the region as he asserted that fighting continues “on every front”, two days after the government declared victory.

Ethiopia Rights Commission calls on gov’t to restore communications, basic services in Tigray; calls on independent, transparent investigation into grave rights violations | 30 November 2020 | Addis Standard

In a statement it released today, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) said that following the government’s November 28 announcement of “the completion of the final phase and cessation of the military operation in Tigray Region and the outlines of next steps listed therein,” it calls for the government to, among others, restore “telecommunications and provision of basic services,” as well as allow “access to independent and transparent investigation into conducts of grave human rights violations.”

Ethiopian military operation in Tigray is complete, prime minister says | 28 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Saturday that military operations in the restive region of Tigray are complete and federal troops control the regional capital, a major development in a three-week-old war that has shaken the Horn of Africa.

End of the road for TPLF? | 28 November 2020 | The Reporter (Ethiopia)

Surrounded by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the final assault on Mekele already underway, these look like the final days of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Even underneath the ardent defiance and unexpected claims of victory by the TPLF, there are some subtle admissions of an impending military defeat.

Ethiopia: A dispatch from West Tigray and North Amhara | 27 November 2020 | ICRC

In mid-November, after the first week of clashes in northern Ethiopia, an ICRC team traveled to North Amhara and West Tigray. In this account, Wilson Mondal, field team leader, describes what they saw.

The Situation in Ethiopia is a Unique War and the African Union Has a Legal Duty to Silence the Guns | 26 November 2020 | African Arguments

The onset of a shooting war between Ethiopia’s National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which began on 4 November 2020, was predictable. The surprise so far has been the reluctance of Ethiopia’s leadership under Nobel Peace Prize-winning Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed Ali, to accommodate appeals for de-escalation. On 25 November, the Prime Minister took to his twitter-feed to urge “the international community, to refrain from any acts of unwelcome or unlawful interference and respect the fundamental principles of non-intervention under international law.”

Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: Fears of ethnic profiling stalk conflict | 26 November 2020 | BBC

Some Tigrayans in Ethiopia have described to the BBC how they have been harassed, detained or discriminated against since fighting began in their home region on 4 November.

Why the third layer of Ethiopia’s conflict may be the most worrying | 26 November 2020 | African Arguments

The conflict between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is another tragic event for a nation reeling from ethnic-based violence and political assassinations. There have likely been thousands of casualties since the military campaign began on 4 November, and many more have had to flee their homes.

Who Benefits from the Destruction of Ethiopia? | 25 November 2020 | African Arguments

There are a lot of unanswered questions about the war in Ethiopia. Let me pose one more: who stands to gain across the region? Ten years ago the then-Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi told me, “my nightmare is that we should have an Egyptian agenda financed by Gulf money.” He didn’t foresee state-of-the-art military technology as part of that nightmare.

Q&A: Conflict in Ethiopia and International Law | 25 November 2020 | HRW

On November 4, 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appeared on state television and acknowledged that he ordered the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) to commence operations against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in response to what he described as attacks by TPLF forces on Ethiopian military bases and federal forces in the regional capital of Mekelle, and at other camps in the Tigray region.

Crisis Group links deportation of analyst to comments on Tigray | 25 November 2020 | The East African

There are concerns that Ethiopian authorities are getting uncomfortable with foreign commentators on the ongoing conflicts in the northern region of Tigray, after an analyst was deported.

Éthiopie : une nouvelle guerre de sécession ? | 25 November 2020 | IRIS

Il y a un peu plus d’un an, le Premier ministre éthiopien Abiy Ahmed recevait le prix Nobel de la paix pour avoir enfin mis fin à la guerre avec son voisin érythréen, et pour avoir démocratisé un pays qui était particulièrement répressif. Aujourd’hui le même est à la tête d’un pays qui pourrait se livrer à des massacres de masse dans la région du Tigré.

Tigray Maikadra massacre of civilians is a crime of atrocity: Ethiopian Human Rights Commission | 24 November 2020 | Addis Standard

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has found that an atrocious massacre of civilians has been committed by an informal group of Tigrayan youth known as ‘Samri’, aided and abetted by members of what was then the local administration and security establishment in Maikadra, in Tigray Region’s Western Zone, on November 9th, 2020.

As Ethiopia’s army declares daily victories, its people are being plunged into violence | 24 November 2020 | The Guardian

Stop War Crimes in Ethiopia Today | 23 November 2020 | African Arguments

Ethiopia’s prime minister Abiy Ahmed has promised military victory in Tigray. He says he will capture the capital, Mekelle, and the leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which he calls a criminal junta. If he succeeds, it will be a pyrrhic victory – prospects for peace, democracy and protection from famine in Ethiopia will be set back a generation.

Ethiopia’s other conflicts | 23 November 2020 | The New Humanitarian

The conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region has cost hundreds of lives and sent tens of thousands of people fleeing to Sudan over the past three weeks. But the region is just one of several in the country experiencing violent unrest amid a fraught political transition.

Ethiopia rejects African mediation, pushes toward rebel-held Tigray capital | 21 November 2020 | Reuters

The Ethiopian government rebuffed an African effort to mediate on Saturday, saying its troops had seized another town in their march towards the rebel-held capital of northern Tigray region.

Secret UN report reveals fears of long and bitter war in Ethiopia | 21 November 2020 | The Guardian

Ethiopian national forces are meeting heavy resistance and face a protracted “war of attrition” in the northern region of Tigray, a confidential United Nations assessment reveals.

The Tigrayan Conflict and the Laws of Humanitarian Assistance | 20 November 2020 | Opinio Juris

For over two weeks, violent and escalating clashes in the Tigray region of Ethiopia have resulted in hundreds of deaths, thousands of displaced persons and ever growing humanitarian needs in this mountainous region of northern Ethiopia.

Tigray Population Movement Information bulletin (pdf) | 20 November 2020 | nternational Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)

Since 3 November 2020, A series of escalating clashes between the Ethiopian Federal Government and the Tigray Regional Government has resulted in a growing humanitarian emergency including heavy casualties and population movements both internally and cross border. An estimated 9 million people within or near the Tigray region are at risk due to increasing confrontations.

WHO chief denies Ethiopia’s claim of backing Tigray region | 19 November 2020 | AP

The World Health Organization’s director-general on Thursday denied an allegation from his own country, Ethiopia, that he was lobbying neighboring nations to provide arms and other support to the defiant Tigray region, which has been clashing with the Ethiopian government for two weeks.

Ethiopia, led by a Nobel peace winner, is looking down the barrel of civil war | 19 November 2020 | The Guardian

The humanitarian tragedy is already stretching across borders: 27,000 Ethiopians have crossed the frontier into Sudan in two weeks, the largest influx in 20 years.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Trades His Nobel Peace Prize for Civil War | 19 November 2020 | Bloomberg

We may be long past holding laureates of the Nobel Peace Prize to its lofty standards — the cruel cynicism of Henry Kissinger and open bigotry of Aung San Suu Kyi are just two instances of honorees behaving dishonorably — but Abiy Ahmed’s belly flop from the pedestal is nonetheless remarkable. In less than a year since his uplift in Oslo, Ethiopia’s prime minister has embroiled his country in a civil war and brought the Horn of Africa to the edge of chaos.

Operational update on escalating fighting in Tigray and northern Ethiopia | 18 November 2020 | ICRC

In just two weeks, escalating fighting in Tigray and northern Ethiopia has triggered immense suffering and risks spiralling into a wider humanitarian crisis.

Digging Own Grave: The End Days of Ethiopia’s TPLF | 18 November 2020 | CounterCurrents

Previously in power for almost three decades, the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) of Ethiopia finally is approaching their end days and as we say here in the Horn of Africa, “they are digging their own grave”.

Ethiopia Tigray crisis: Abiy issues ‘ultimatum’ as civilians flee fighting | 18 November 2020 | BBC

Ethiopia’s prime minister has said a military operation against rebel forces in the northern Tigray region is entering its “final phase”. Abiy Ahmed said a three-day deadline given for Tigray’s forces to surrender had now expired.

Ethiopia pushes for Tigray capital, denies ‘ethnic bias’ | 18 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian forces pushed towards the capital of the rebel Tigray region on Wednesday, ignoring international appeals for talks to end the conflict and denying it was targeting any ethnic group.

Peace was swift in Ethiopia under Abiy. War was, too | 17 November 2020 | AP

Abiy Ahmed left Ethiopians breathless when he became the prime minister in 2018, introducing a wave of political reforms in the long-repressive country and announcing a shocking peace with enemy Eritrea.

Factbox: The forces fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict | 17 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s military is fighting battle-hardened troops in the northern Tigray region, threatening stability around the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia resists mediation as it bombs Tigray capital | 17 November 2020 | DefenceWeb

Ethiopia resisted international pressure for mediation in a war in the country’s north on Monday as its air force bombed the Tigrayan capital Mekelle, according to diplomatic and military sources.

Tigrai National Government Statement (pdf) | 17 November 2020 | Tigrai National Government | Aiga Forum

Abiy Ahmed has regionalised and internationalised the war. But it will not save him from eventual defeat. Dr. Debretsion Gebremichael, President of the Regional State of Tigray has written to more than seventy Heads of states and leaders of regional and international organizations warning the further internationalisation of the war.

Ethiopia says its troops marching on Tigrayan capital | 17 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia said its troops were marching on the capital of the Tigray region on Tuesday after a deadline for rebel forces to surrender passed in a two-week conflict shaking the Horn of Africa and alarming the world.

Factbox: Which countries have stakes in Ethiopia’s war? | 17 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian troops are battling rebellious forces from the country’s northern Tigray region. Fallout from the conflict in Africa’s second most-populous nation is already spilling over into Ethiopia’s neighbours, threatening to further destabilise a fragile region.

The Ongoing Law Enforcement Operations in Tigray: Causes and Objectives | 17 November 2020 | Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia | Ethiopian News Agency

Causes of the Ongoing Law Enforcement Operations: What makes the Law Enforcement Operation directed against the extreme elements of the TPLF clique just and necessary?

Background to the war in Ethiopia for the international media | 17 November 2020 | Committee for Voice of Reason | Aiga Forum

The illegitimate Ethiopian government has imposed a complete shutdown of communication and transportation in and out of the State of Tigray. He has now declared war and mobilized ground and air attacks against the state. This illegitimate government has controlled the local media and is disseminating false information to the international community.

Ethiopian troops ‘liberate’ key town in Tigray, claim officials | 16 November 2020 | The Guardian

Ethiopian troops have advanced further into the northern region of Tigray, seizing a key town on the road to its capital, officials in Addis Ababa have said.

Abiy Ahmed Ali’s war on Tigrai: a guide to its genesis | 16 November 2020 | Yitbarek Mesfin | Aiga Forum

Ethiopia is a very complex country made up of 80 different linguistic groups. Some international reporters are at last beginning to understand the cause of the civil unrest in Ethiopia from the start of Abiy Ahmed’s premiership in 2018. But there is still misunderstanding about the country’s political problems.

Tigray crisis viewpoint: Why Ethiopia is spiralling out of control | 15 November 2020 | BBC

Ethiopia appears to be fast approaching civil war. Fighting between forces loyal to the federal government headed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has claimed hundreds of lives and is threatening to rip the country apart.

In escalation of Ethiopia war, Tigray leader says his forces fired rockets at Eritrea | 15 November 2020 | Reuters

The leader of Ethiopia’s rebellious Tigray region confirmed on Sunday that his forces had fired rockets at the airport in Eritrea’s capital, a major escalation that raises fears of a wider war in the Horn of Africa region.

Conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Widens as Missiles Are Fired at Airports | 14 November 2020 | NYT

Two airports in a state that neighbors Tigray, where Ethiopian troops are fighting local forces, were the targets of rocket fire late on Friday, the government said, as an 11-day conflict in the region widened.

How Abiy is heralding Eritreanization of Ethiopia! | 14 November 2020 | Tedros A. Tsegay | Aiga Forum

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Abiy Ahmed is at war with his own people. He has ordered all state power at his disposal to annihilate the Tigrayan People Liberation Front (TPLF) by opening war from almost all fronts, including from Eritrea using Eritrean soldiers according to eyewitness account, who crossed the border into the Sudan.

Rockets fired at Eritrean capital from Ethiopia, diplomats say | 14 November 2020 | Reuters

At least three rockets were fired at Eritrea’s capital from Ethiopia on Saturday night, five regional diplomats said, a major escalation of a conflict pitting Ethiopian government troops against rebellious local forces in the Tigray region.

Ethiopia: leaders of Tigray region admit they attacked neighbouring Amhara | 14 November 2020 | The Guardian

Leaders of Tigray in Ethiopia’s north on Saturday claimed responsibility for rocket attacks on two airports in a nearby region and threatened to strike neighbouring Eritrea, raising concerns that the escalating conflict could spread across national borders.

Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis: How the conflict could destabilise its neighbours | 14 November 2020 | BBC

The fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray state may not only have drastic implications for the future of the country but could also seriously affect its neighbours.

Ethiopia Tigray crisis: Rights commission to investigate ‘mass killings’ | 14 November 2020 | BBC

Ethiopia’s human rights commission has said it will send a team to investigate reports of mass killings of civilians in the northern Tigray state.

Ethiopian human rights commission says monitoring military operation | 14 November 2020 | New Business Ethiopia

Ethiopian Human Rights Commission Public Statement | 14 November 2020 | Facebook

In its statement the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) indicated that it has been monitoring closely and is in consultation with the relevant authorities regarding the risk of multidimensional human rights violations arising from the ongoing war in Tigray Region.

Refugee exodus to Sudan swells as war crimes feared in Ethiopia’s Tigray | 13 November 2020 | Reuters

The United Nations voiced concern on Friday that the conflict between Ethiopian government forces and insurgent northern leaders could spiral out of control and said war crimes may already have been committed.

Amnesty International’s Irresponsible Allegations | 13 November 2020 | Elias Dawit | Aiga Forum

Amnesty International, a global human rights organization, issued a statement saying “We have confirmed the massacre of a very large number of civilians, who appear to have been day labourers in no way involved in the ongoing military offensive. This is a horrific tragedy whose true extent only time will tell as communication in Tigray remains shut down,” said Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa.

Ethiopian police seeking lists of ethnic Tigrayans – U.N. Report | 13 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian police visited a U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) office in Amhara region to request a list of ethnic Tigrayan staff, according to an internal U.N. security report seen by Reuters on Friday.

Ethiopians fleeing to Sudan describe air strikes and machete killings in Tigray | 13 November 2020 | Reuters

Civilians fleeing fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region described bombing by government warplanes, shooting on the streets and killings by machete, as they joined thousands of refugees crossing into neighbouring Sudan.

Tigray: How Ethiopia reached this crisis point and how it could get out | 13 November 2020 | African Arguments

The current crisis in Tigray has not appeared from the clear blue sky. Its roots are deep in Ethiopia’s history and its outcome will dictate the country’s future. It is unlikely Ethiopia will fall apart. But a period of violence is probable and will continue until there is a further adjustment of government at the centre and a rebalancing of the relationship with the regions. Increased democratisation is one potential solution, but by no means the only outcome.

Ethiopia: Protect People as Tigray Crisis Escalates | 13 November 2020 | HRW

The Ethiopian government and Tigray regional authorities should protect people and property at risk from the fighting. Amid credible reports of increasing casualties, the authorities on both sides should facilitate access for humanitarian groups, stop interrupting essential services, and immediately restore communication services in the region.

Ethiopia claims big advance in Tigray, Amnesty reports mass killing | 12 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia: Investigation reveals evidence that scores of civilians were killed in massacre in Tigray state | 12 November 2020 | Amnesty International

Ethiopia’s military has defeated local forces in the west of Tigray state, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Thursday, accusing his foes of atrocities during a week of fighting that threatens to destabilise the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia’s Instability Threatens to Engulf Region | 11 November 2020 | VoA

In a country plagued by years of ethnic violence, analysts fear the latest fighting between government troops and regional paramilitary forces in Ethiopia could be the breaking point.

Ethiopian Human Rights Commission condemns more arrest of journalists as police keeps all incommunicado | 11 November 2020 | Addis Standard

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) confirmed that four more journalists were arrested overnight. They are Haftu Gebregzhiabher, Tsegaye Hadush, & Abreha Hagos from Ethiopian Press Agency (EPA’s) and Udi Mussa from Oromia Media Network (OMN).

Ethiopian journalists arrested as Tigray conflict worsens, refugees flee to Sudan | 11 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s human rights commission condemned the arrest of journalists as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pressed ahead with a military offensive in a northern region against local leaders defiant of his authority.

Thousands flee Ethiopia conflict, protests against Tigray’s leaders planned | 11 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian refugees were flooding into Sudan on Wednesday as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal troops battled well-armed local forces in Tigray and protests against the northern region’s leaders were planned elsewhere.

Clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray region force thousands to flee to Sudan | 11 November 2020 | UNHCR

UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, is working with authorities in Sudan to provide lifesaving assistance to more than 7,000 refugees from Ethiopia, who have fled across the border in the past two days.

Experts react: Understanding the conflict in Tigray | 11 November 2020 | Atlantic Council

On November 4, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a military offensive against forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which is the governing authority of the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray. Coming after months of rising tensions between the TPLF and the Abiy administration, the latest military action was precipitated by an alleged surprise night-time assault by the TPLF on a major Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) base in Tigray that resulted in the killing of non-Tigrayan soldiers and the attempted looting of heavy artillery and weapons.

Police rearrest Addis Standard’s editor | 10 November 2020 | Addis Standard

The police on duty at Addis Abeba police station have this afternoon rearrested Medihane Ekubamichael, product editor at Addis Standard publication. Medihane was first detained on Saturday November 07 by members of the city’s police and take to undisclosed location.

Police detain Addis Standard’s editor, accuse him of attempt to dismantle the constitution | 9 November 2020 | Addis Standard

Members of Addis Abeba and federal police officer have on Saturday arrested Medihane Ekubamichael, product editor at Addis Standard publication. Jakenn Publishing PLC, the publishers of Addis Standard publication, confirmed that Medihane was arrested and initially taken to undisclosed location on Saturday November 07, from his house in Addis Abeba.

Concern of outright war in Ethiopia grows as PM presses military offensive | 9 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s prime minister stepped up a military offensive in the northern region of Tigray on Sunday with air strikes as part of what he called a “law enforcement operation”, increasing fears of outright civil war in Africa’s second-most populous country.

Violence worsens in Ethiopia as hundreds reported to have died in conflict | 9 November 2020 | Businesslive

An escalating conflict in Ethiopia’s restive Tigray region has killed hundreds of people, sources on the government’s side said, even as the prime minister sought on Monday to reassure the world his nation was not sliding into civil war.

Conflict in Ethiopia extends the Greater Middle East’s arc of crisis | 7 November 2020 | ModernDiplomacy

Ethiopia, an African darling of the international community, is sliding towards civil war as the coronavirus pandemic hardens ethnic fault lines. The consequences of prolonged hostilities could echo across East Africa, the Middle East and Europe.

Ethiopia’s PM seeks to regain control over restive Tigray region | 7 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sought to re-establish authority over the northern Tigray region on Saturday, a day after launching air strikes amid reports that Tigrayan forces had seized control of federal military sites and weapons.

Timeline: Key events leading to Ethiopia’s crisis in Tigray | 6 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia is mobilising troops from around the country and sending them to the northern Tigray region to fight a powerful ethnic faction that led the ruling coalition for decades.

Ethiopia’s Abiy vows to disarm ‘fugitives from justice’ in Tigray campaign | 6 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s air force bombed arms depots and destroyed military hardware in the northern Tigray region on Friday, the prime minister said, escalating a war he launched this week against his former ruling coalition allies.

Ethiopia mobilises for war in northern region | 6 November 2020 | DefenceWeb

Ethiopia mobilised for war in the northern Tigray region on Thursday, dashing international hopes of averting a conflict between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and the powerful ethnic faction that led the ruling coalition for decades.

U.N. chief ‘deeply alarmed’ by armed clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray | 6 November 2020 | Reuters

The head of the United Nations said he was deeply alarmed by fighting in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, where federal troops have been exchanging fire with the powerful ethnic faction that led the ruling coalition for decades.

Ethiopia’s PM Abiy defends military operations, others call it war | 6 November 2020 | RFI

The “large-scale law enforcement operation” has “clear, limited and achievable objectives: to restore the rule of law and the constitutional order,” he said on Friday, calling out the Tigray region’s Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leadership as “fugitives from justice … using the civilian population as human shields.”

As more troops mobilized to northern Ethiopia to join “aimless war” PM Abiy assures operations have “clear, limited & achievable objectives” | 6 November 2020 | Addis Standard

As more troops are being mobilized to join the offensive against TPLF’s regional special forces, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said military operations by federal defense forces underway in Northern Ethiopia have “clear, limited & achievable objectives.”

Ethiopia’s Premier Orders Troops Into Once-powerful Tigray Region in Major Escalation | 4 November 2020 | VoA

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered the military to deploy to the Tigray region on Wednesday after accusing the government there of attacking federal troops, a major escalation of a row between the premier and the once-powerful region.

A statement from Jakenn Publishing PLC regarding the blockage of all means of communication in Tigray Regional State | 4 November 2020 | Addis Standard

Jakenn Publishing PLC, the publisher of Addis Standard online magazine expresses its deep regret that due to the blockage of internet, mobile and landline communications, its journalists are unable to provide an inclusive news on the ongoing military engagement between forces of the federal army and Tigray regional state.

National defense forces given order to “start military offensive against TPLF: PM Abiy Ahmed | 3 November 2020 | EthioExplorer

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has just announced that the National Defense Forces (ENDF), led by a command post, is given order to start military offensive against TPLF in Tigray regional state.

Political Parties Commend HPR Decision to Lift Immunity of 39 Members | 3 November 2020 | Ethiopian News Agency

Representatives of political parties have commended the resolution to lift the immunity of some members of the House of People’s and Representatives (HPR) today.

Army Made a Sharp Riposte against Defiant TPLF Attack | 2 November 2020 | Ethiopian News Agency

Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has announced on Wednesday that it has successfully contained the attack from the defiance Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and advanced to counteract in a bid to protect the unity of the country.

Crisis staring” Tigray, Federal governments “in the eye” as army is caught in the mix, relations plummet to new low | 31 October 2020 | Addis Standard

Tensions between the federal and the Tigray Regional State governments have picked up a new twist following a decision by the later to return Brigadier General Jamal Mohammed from Mekelle Alula Abanega Airport.

Splitting Southern Nations region into four can promote peace | 10 October 2020 | Ethiopia Insight

For more than two decades, the question of statehood formation has been raised by identiy-based zones in the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples’ Regional State (SNNPRS).

House of Federation speaker says establishing transitional government, dispatching federal security forces in Tigray among constitutional options | 2 October 2020 | Addis Standard

Adem Farah, Speaker of the House of Federation (HoF) says there are enough constitutional means to take measures against those endangering the constitution.

OFC calls for “genuine national dialogue” | 30 September 2020 | Oromo Federalist Congress | Addis Standard

“Ethiopia has entered a new year with all its heavy political burdens – with both hope and despair. And without a shadow of doubt, the hoped-for democratic transition is disturbingly failing,” said the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) in a statement.

Tigray region says it will defy federal laws enacted as of Oct. 05; EDP calls for transitional gov’t, inclusive dialogue & reconciliation | 29 September 2020 | Addis Standard

In an interview aired on Tigray Mass Media Agency, Asmelash Wolde Sellassie, executive member of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the governing party of Tigray regional state, said the region will not comply with laws, directives, and regulations, among others, to be enacted by the federal government after its current term in office came to an end on October 05/2020.

Ethiopia files terrorism charges against leading opposition activist | 19 September 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia has filed terrorism charges against a prominent media mogul and opposition politician from the Oromo ethnic group, Jawar Mohammed, the attorney general’s office said on Saturday.

Regional party wins vote in Ethiopia’s Tigray, challenging federal government | 11 September 2020 | Reuters

The regional ruling party has won a landslide election victory in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, officials said on Friday, as a confrontation looms with national authorities who have branded the vote illegal.

Ethiopia bars journalists from flying to Tigray regional vote, passengers say | 7 September 2020 | Reuters

At least 12 people, including four journalists and a senior think tank analyst, were barred on Monday from flying to Tigray, four of the passengers said, after Ethiopian security officials said the region’s elections later this week were illegal.

Ethiopia’s upper house rules Tigray regional vote unconstitutional | 5 September 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s upper house ruled on Saturday that plans by the Tigray region to hold an election on Sept. 9 were unconstitutional, setting up a potential clash between the central government and a powerful ethnic party.

Ethiopia’s Tigray region to holds poll, defying federal government | 4 September 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region will head to the polls on Wednesday in defiance of the federal government, the latest challenge to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from a slew of regional leaders flexing their muscles ahead of next year’s national elections.

Ethiopia’s Tigray region eyes election in challenge to national unity | 5 May 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s Tigray region plans to hold elections, its main party said, setting it on a collision course with the federal government and testing the country’s fragile unity.

Ethiopia postpones August election due to coronavirus | 31 March 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia has postponed parliamentary elections scheduled for August due to the coronavirus outbreak, the electoral board said on Tuesday, a move endorsed by some key opposition parties.

Ethiopia passes gun control law to tackle surge in violence | 9 January 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s parliament passed legislation on Thursday aimed at curbing gun ownership after a surge in regional ethnic violence blamed on a proliferation of small arms in private hands.

Voting for Internal Secession – Federalism and ethnicity in Ethiopia | 28 November 2019 | Verfassungsblog

20 November 2019 might go down in history as one of the turning points for federalism in Ethiopia. It was the day on which the unparalleled clause of the Ethiopian Constitution, which provides ethnic communities with the right to establish their own state (i.e. subnational unit), was put into practice. Finally, after clamoring for their own state for years, the Sidama, the fifth largest ethnic group in the country, were allowed to have their day in a referendum.

Ethiopia’s ruling coalition agrees to form single party ahead of 2020 vote | 21 November 2019 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s ruling coalition on Thursday approved the merger of three of its four ethnic-based parties into a single national one ahead of the 2020 elections, part of the prime minister’s efforts to unite the country, but one of the parties boycotted the meeting and vote.

Violence during Ethiopian protests was ethnically tinged, say eyewitnesses | 26 October 2019 | Reuters

Much of the fighting seen during protests in Ethiopia this week was ethnically tinged, eyewitnesses said on Saturday, describing attacks by young men from the Oromo ethnic group against people from other ethnic groups.

Abiy Ahmed and the struggle to keep Ethiopia together | 11 October 2019 | The Africa Report

Ethiopia’s ongoing liberalisation and ethnic federalism are creating a combustible situation as ethnic groups seek more autonomy on economic, political and security matters.

Ethiopia to hold autonomy referendum for ethnic Sidama in November | 29 August 2019 | Reuters

Ethiopia on Thursday granted its ethnic Sidama community a referendum in November on self-determination, with a view to creating the country’s 10th autonomous region, Fana news agency reported.

Ethiopia’s opposition parties criticize election law changes | 24 August 2019 | Reuters

Ethiopian lawmakers on Saturday revised election laws to pave the way for polls next year, but some opposition parties said the changes would make it more difficult for them to challenge the ruling coalition.

Regional power grab attempt causes rare discord in Ethiopia coalition | 12 July 2019 | Reuters

A failed regional coup in Ethiopia has exposed rare divisions in the alliance that has dominated the country for three decades, with two of the four ethnic parties that form the ruling coalition trading insults in a public feud.

Abiy Ahmed’s reforms in Ethiopia lift the lid on ethnic tensions | 29 June 2019 | BBC

After launching the most ambitious reforms in his country’s history Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is under threat. The murder of his army chief of staff amid an alleged coup attempt in the Amhara region has highlighted the vulnerability of the reform process. The BBC’s Africa Editor, Fergal Keane, analyses the challenge facing the continent’s youngest leader.

Nearly 250 arrested in Ethiopia after foiled coup | 27 June 1019 | Reuters

Nearly 250 people have been arrested in Ethiopia’s capital and the main city in its Amhara region since a coup attempt was foiled, state TV reported on Thursday.

Ethiopia’s ethnic militias in the spotlight after failed coup | 24 June 1019 | Reuters

A foiled coup in the Ethiopian state of Amhara that left five senior officials dead, including the army’s chief of staff, has thrust ethnic militias in one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies into the spotlight.

Ethiopia opposition see dangers if 2020 vote delayed | 21 June 1019 | Reuters

Opposition politicians in Ethiopia are warning against a delay to national elections due in 2020 that would be the first under reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed but are under threat from an explosion of regional ethnic rivalries.

Ethiopia’s Ethnic Federalism: Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution | 23 January 2019 | Verfassungsblog

Lenin once famously said that ‘[t]here are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen’. This aptly describes the dizzying political sea change that Ethiopia has been going through since 2 April 2018, the day that saw the election of Abiy Ahmed as the Prime Minister. Since then, the country has witnessed political reforms that, if sustained, will soon herald a new era of democratization and human rights.

‘Nobody will kneel’: Tigrayans defiant as Ethiopian leader cracks down | 16 December 2018 | Reuters

In the birthplace of the armed struggle that propelled Ethiopia’s ruling coalition to power 27 years ago, there is growing anger as the country’s new prime minister stages a crackdown on the region’s once-powerful leaders.

Secessionism, Federalism and Constitutionalism in Ethiopia | 15 August 2018 | Verfassungsblog

On the morning of 4 August 2018, troops were seen taking over key positions in Jijiga, a capital city of the State of Somali, one of the constituent units of the Ethiopian federation. Heavily armed military vehicles were stationed outside the state parliament, the offices of state government and the state TV station. It was not an invasion by a foreign force. It was a federal intervention.

‘These changes are unprecedented’: how Abiy is upending Ethiopian politics | 8 July 2018 | The Guardian

Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia, has accelerated a radical reform programme that is overturning politics in the vast, strategically significant African country.

Abiy Ahmed sworn in as Ethiopia’s prime minister | 2 April 2018 | al Jazeera

Ethiopia’s parliament has elected Abiy Ahmed as the new prime minister, a week after the ruling coalition nominated him to succeed Hailemariam Desalegn. Abiy was sworn in on Monday shortly after his election to become Africa’s second-most populous country’s 16th prime minister and the first Oromo to hold Ethiopia’s top seat.