HORN OF AFRICA

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Pterosaur Rainbow drones (UAV) are put into battle, attacking Ethiopian rebels at night, killing 500 people on the spot

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UAV Network 2020-11-30 | The Asian-African conflict that was just quelled a while ago finally ended with Azerbaijan’s victory. In this war, drones as a new type of military weapons showed up on the battlefield, and soon won the world’s Concerned, some experts even predict that in future wars, drones will replace armed helicopters and become the new darling on the battlefield. This is true when used in the recent conflict between Ethiopia and the “rebels”.

Satellite data provided by a US space company recently showed that buildings in areas where Ethiopia was engaged in combat with rebels were suspected of being subjected to a wide range of precision-guided strikes, and the rebels who used buildings as shelters suffered a devastating blow. In this attack, at least 500 rebels were wiped out on the spot. The Ethiopian government forces had absolute initiative at the beginning of the battle. Such a precise air strike was definitely not done by the Su-27 of the Ethiopian Air Force. It was the Ethiopian Air Force that used the killer weapon. Judging from the current situation in Ethiopia, Ethiopia and the UAE Air Force stationed in Eritrea both use this killer weapon: it is possible to armed drones. The Ethiopian side uses the Rainbow 4 weapon. The man-machine, and the UAE Air Force, is likely to use the Pterosaur 2 armed drone.

Read More China Has Been Spying On The African Union Headquarters

Both of these drones are excellent products manufactured in China, and have been exported to many countries and regions in the world. The Pterosaur 2 was developed by my country’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. The aerodynamic layout of the Pterosaur 2 and the previous Pterosaur domestic UAV is generally similar, but the size of the Pterosaur 2 is almost a circle larger than the Pterosaur, so Compared with the pterosaur, the descendant pterosaur 2 has a significant improvement over the pterosaur in terms of bomb load and maximum range. In the seven years since it was put on the market, the Pterosaur 2 has been successfully equipped in many countries, and it has achieved normalized applications. It has also performed well in actual combat. The Rainbow 4 UAV is my country’s “Rainbow” series UAV Representative products in China are also exported to the Middle East and Europe.

Read More The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels

And it shines in the struggle against the armed elements. Both types of drones represent the advanced level of Chinese drones. Compared with UAVs produced in the United States, U.S.-made UAVs have always been popular in the international arms market before China’s UAV momentum has risen, but since Chinese UAVs entered the international market many countries were immediately attracted by the ultra-high cost performance of our drones. At the same time, our drones are more durable than American drones, easy to maintain, which has successfully shaken the US drones in the international market. Dominance.

In this conflict, Ethiopia once again used Chinese domestic drones. Obviously, after the conflict in the Tigray region, the use of drones in modern warfare has also been attracted by countries all over the world and started imitation.

‘Egypt working to destabilize Ethiopia, East Africa’ — Ethiopia

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Anadolu Agency | Ethiopian diplomat says Cairo trying to weaken Ethiopia and volatile Horn of Africa region

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — The Egyptian government has been stepping up its long-standing policy of destabilizing and weakening Ethiopia by “providing full support to anti-peace elements” and pitting neighbors against it, according to a top Ethiopian diplomat.

The official, who holds a high position in the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry and asked for anonymity, told Anadolu Agency that “Egypt has intensified its destabilization efforts against Ethiopia and the volatile Horn of Africa region.”

Ethiopia’s reformist administration, led by Nobel Laureate Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who took office in 2018, has faced multiple domestic and external security challenges.

Last November, Ahmed told parliament that since he became premier, Ethiopia had witnessed 114 ethnic and religious conflicts, resulting in the deaths of thousands and displacements of millions of people.

According to him, all those conflicts were manufactured, instigated, and led by Ethiopian armed and unarmed forces bent on thwarting his administration’s political, social, and economic reform agenda in order to trigger a regime change or failed state.

‘Conflict over dam’

The diplomat said that for more than half a century the Egyptian establishment has been providing financial, military, and diplomatic assistance to armed and unarmed Ethiopian forces in its bid to destabilize and weaken Ethiopia and thwart its ambition to utilize the resources of the Nile River.

Ethiopia has realized its Nile River utilization dreams by constructing the $5 billion Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is now 78% complete, he added.

Ethiopia hopes the stalled negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Addis Ababa over the dam will eventually result in a win-win solution for everyone.

However, despite strong opposition from Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia is planning to begin the second phase of filling this August. Early power generation is slated to start this January or February.

“It is in light of this development that Egypt has intensified its covert and overt anti-Ethiopian activities over the past couple of years,” he said.

‘Supporting Gumuz rebels’

The armed Gumuz militia has been unleashing brutal ethnic attacks on ethnic minorities in Ethiopia’s western Benishangul-Gumuz state, where the dam is located. Hundreds of civilians have been massacred and tens of thousands displaced.

According to the Ethiopian government, the sole aim of the Gumuz militia, which has been trying to block the main road leading to the dam, is to trigger a civil war in the region and beyond and eventually delay or thwart the dam’s construction.

“We have credible intelligence that Egypt has been assisting the Gumuz militia,” the diplomat said. “Egyptian security agents have been in touch with the leaders of the rebel group, and they are working on enhancing their support.”

Furthermore, the official said, the Egyptians are also trying to find an operational base for Gumuz as well as the militarily defeated and outlawed Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which they had supported, and other groups.

“It’s worth saying that recently Egypt solicited the government of South Sudan to provide a military base for the groups,” he said. “But the South Sudanese authorities, who highly value our friendly relations, rebuffed the request in no uncertain terms.”

‘Pitting Sudan against Ethiopia’

Sudan and Ethiopia have maintained peaceful relations for decades despite a long-standing border dispute over the agricultural area known as al-Fashaqa, which is adjacent to Ethiopia’s northwest Amhara region.

But last November, while the Ethiopian army was busy battling TPLF forces, the Sudanese army took control of the contested area.

Weeks after the move, Sudanese officials declared that the Sudanese army had managed to regain about 90% of the al-Fashaqa area and demanded that the Ethiopian army vacate the remaining two localities.

The Ethiopian government has sought a diplomatic solution to the dispute and accused the Sudanese army of entering deep into Ethiopian territory, killing and evicting farmers and looting their properties.

Last week, Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti accused Sudan of deploying its army further into the contested region and warned that Ethiopia’s “peaceful approach to the dispute has limits.”

Tensions remain high between the two countries, with thousands of heavily armed troops amassed along the disputed areas.

“The Egyptian government is pushing Sudan to engage in a conflict with Ethiopia, in its bid to weaken both countries,” the official said. “The situation will give Egypt more leverage to further infiltrate the Sudanese army and security apparatus.”

He added: “If the standoff turns into a full-blown conflict, Sudan and Ethiopia will endure collateral damage, while Egypt will benefit.”

The problem was caused and exacerbated by some military officials who fell into Egypt’s plot, he added.

‘Adding fuel to Somalia fire’

Cairo has been actively seeking a presence in Somalia, a troubled Horn of Africa country which for decades has struggled to form a viable state and establish security.

“Throughout last year, Egypt tried to befriend the federal government of Somalia by promising military aid,” said the official. But, he added: “The Somali authorities recognized Egypt’s sinister motives and refused the military assistance.”

According to the diplomat, after the Somali federal government refused the offer, Egypt turned to Somaliland, a self-declared “country” that is part of Somalia and has been at loggerheads with the federal government. Last July, Cairo asked officials in Hargeisa, the Somaliland “capital,” to allow them to set up a military base.

“The Egyptians very well know the strained relations between Mogadishu and Hargeisa could turn into a military confrontation at any time,” the diplomat stressed. “They have been trying to add fuel to the Somalia fire.”

He continued: “The misguided self-centric Egyptian policy has been pushing the volatile Horn of Africa to further become a region of endless wars and destructions.”

‘Waning Egyptian influence’

According to the official, Egypt’s policy of trying to gain ground in the Horn of Africa is meant to get back the influence it has lost in the Middle East.

For decades, Egypt positioned itself as a peace broker in the Middle East conflict and managed to garner diplomatic, financial, and military support from the Western world. However, the rise of Gulf countries and other friends of the Arab world helped shrink Egyptian influence in the region.

“Egypt is trying to gain influence in our region. However, the region has demonstrated its will and capability to deal with its own problems and does not need Egypt to meddle in its affairs,” he concluded.

Egypt may attack Ethiopia by force, all because of a dam

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Tencent QQ | Negotiations between the three African countries broke down, Egypt may attack Ethiopia by force, all because of a dam

What is the most important thing in the world? Except for air, it is water. People can survive without eating for seven days, but if they don’t drink water for three days, they may be thirst to death. Wars that erupt because of water resources are not uncommon in human history, and new examples that may occur now are in Africa. A piece of news came out a few days ago that the tripartite negotiations among the three African countries of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have broken down because of Ethiopia’s reconstruction of the dam, and the waves of armed settlement of disputes are rising in the Egyptian media. According to local media reports, a large number of Egyptian military personnel have already begun to prepare, and the high level of the Egyptian military has also announced that the option of resolving disputes by force is not ruled out in the future.

The construction of the dam in Ethiopia, the entire project, has been controversial. This dam built on the Nile River is said to be related to the problems of three countries. This is because as we all know, Africa is already very short of water, and whoever has the water source has the great initiative. Previously, because Egypt itself fell into turmoil during the Arab Spring, and Sudan had no time to take care of it due to the civil war, Ethiopia found an opportunity. The project was formally approved by the late Ethiopian Meles in 2011. Once this hydropower station with a generating capacity of 6 million kilowatts is completed, it will be a huge boost to Ethiopia’s industrial development and can smoothly solve the problem of power shortage in Ethiopia. But doing so will seriously affect the water use problems of the other two countries, Sudan and Egypt.

Sudan and Egypt also know it well. After the domestic situation stabilized, these two countries also put forward their opinions to Ethiopia. After all, the water resources of the Nile River are limited. The three countries are also racking their brains in order to distribute water resources. Everyone wants to win more for themselves. This is understandable, but Ethiopia has not had the last laugh lately. In the beginning, Ethiopia took advantage of the civil strife in the other two countries to build the dam. Now Ethiopia is also experiencing a crisis of civil war. The two neighboring countries have not hesitated to retaliate against Ethiopia, taking advantage of the fire. The issue of Filling Dam has been solved. And now it is catching up with the critical moment of the second impoundment of the dam. For Egypt, it has reached the point of threatening their lifeline.

In this regard, there have been some reports from the Egyptian military, and they will not rule out the use of force. This includes directly attacking the dam itself. But doing so violates the UN’s laws of war. After all, an attack on a hydroelectric power station requires an international court. However, some people in Egypt have suggested that instead of attacking the dam itself, just attacking a few nearby power stations can disable the dam’s function. As for Sudan’s involvement in Ethiopia’s civil war affairs, there are rumors that Sudanese militia guerrillas have been discovered in the Tigray area of ​​Ethiopia, which has made the local chaotic war even more unbearable.

Now that wars have spread around the dam, whether new wars can break out depends entirely on whether the three local countries have the patience to continue the talks. Some people believe that the key lies in whether the three parties can reach an agreement in the next three months. Otherwise, when water resources are scarce in the dry season, the three countries will really fight for water.

The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels

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UAV Network | Tencent QQ | Ethiopia: the price is too good

According to a report by TASS News Agency on December 3, the UAV deployed by the UAE in Eritrea recently participated in the Ethiopian civil war and achieved “impressive” results. Under the continuous bombing of drones, the Tigray People’s Army kept retreating, and there was no way to deal with it. The rebels could no longer hold it, and began to surrender. On December 1, the Ethiopian government stated that senior officials of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had surrendered to the Ethiopian army. The official who surrendered was Kerya Ibrahim, one of the nine important leaders of the TPLF.

The price of a U.S.-made Predator drone is about US$5 million, and the price of an American Reaper drone is about US$15 million. In contrast, the cost of a Chinese-made pterosaur drone is only about $1 million. But the performance of the Pterosaur UAV is not much different from that of the U.S. Predator. The Pterosaur UAV can also realize the integration of investigation and fighting, and has many actual combat records. The difference between the Pterosaur UAV and the Predator is mainly due to the relatively weak engine performance, which leads to the difference in the maximum ammunition capacity of the Pterosaur and the Predator. But if the price factor is taken into account, this may not be a problem at all. In addition, there are many restrictions on the purchase of U.S. military drones, but there are no more restrictions on the purchase of pterosaur drones. You can buy your own equipment and you can use it whatever you want.

In the civil war in Ethiopia, the pterosaur drones undertook a 24-hour non-stop bombing mission, which destroyed the rebels to life. In fact, the conflict between Ethiopia and Tigray was not a day or two; the government forces did not quickly win the victory over the rebels. The biggest difference was that there was no help from drones. The Ethiopian army has a lot of advanced equipment, including AR-2 rockets, etc., but it cannot fully utilize the advantages of these equipment. Tigray armed with rockets in hand and the government army are very impressive. But when the pterosaur drones joined, the situation changed quickly. Death was hovering over the heads of the rebels for 24 hours, and any heavy weapons that appeared would be quickly attacked. The drones made the rebels feel powerless, and the destruction of the period was terrible.

The Ethiopian military believes that these Pterosaur drones are too valuable. In fact, this batch of UAVs is not Ethiopian, it is likely to be the UAE. The UAE built military bases in the area in 2015 and deployed multiple pterosaur UAVs to fight against Husai. The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels. After the Ethiopian army has seen the power of the pterosaur drone, it is believed that it will also have the idea of ​​buying it. After all, it can have the ability to attack the ground without spending a lot of money, which is impossible for manned fighters. UAVs are very attractive to Ethiopia.

In recent years, drones have appeared on the battlefield more and more and have played a very important role. Both the TB-2 UAV and the Pterosaur UAV participated in the battlefield in Libya. The TB-2 UAV successfully destroyed multiple armored S air defense systems. The Pterosaur UAV pressed the GNA army before the Turkish army entered the battle. In the Naka conflict, Azerbaijan used Turkish TB-2 UAVs to destroy several Russian-made Sam-8 air defense systems, S300 air defense systems, and a large number of T72 tanks, which played an important role in winning the war. In the civil war in Ethiopia, drones once again played an important role. Many practical examples show that for small countries, drones may be more useful than manned fighters.

Silencing of guns in Africa remains a pipe dream

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IOL | The African Union set itself a goal of silencing guns on the continent by 2020 but has failed to achieve that goal dismally. Guns are still blazing in the DRC, CAR, Libya, South Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria.

Instead, there is the potential of new wars coming on board in 2021 between Sudan and Ethiopia, and Western Sahara-Morocco, where we could see much bloodshed soon. Why is Africa constantly under such pressures of war?

A closer look at the situations in each country tells us a story of foreign interference and manipulations, so that they gain access to our resources and loot. Our enemies are willing to sponsor some of these wars so that in the midst of the chaos created by them, they can steal our resources.

If we are to examine each situation prevailing in any of these countries, we will notice that the real problem is resources. Instead of a country having pride in their God-given resources, it has now become a curse on them. This is very true with the DRC, for example, Africa’s richest country in terms of resources, which has never known any peace from independence up to this day. I mean, how do we explain the lack of development in the DRC?

Some western countries and their proxies on the continent have joined hands to exploit the DRCs resources. Countries that have no recorded diamonds deposits on their territories are selling the mineral on the world market. Where are they getting the diamonds from is the question?

The same can be said of what is going on in the Central African Republic (CAR). The country, as poor as it is, does possess a lot of natural resources. It was ruled by a man called Emperor Bokassa. This man was one of the richest on the continent. He lived more affluently than some of the European leaders.

The truth is that, like the DRC, CAR is one of the richest countries in terms of natural resources. It has diamonds, gold, and other western sought-after minerals in abundance. As a result of that, the French and the Russians have all lined up deploying their militaries to the CAR on the side of the government under the guise of fighting the rebels when in actual fact, they also bolster the different rebels’ groups inciting them to cause chaos.

Amid the chaos, it gives them the chance to loot in daylight. Over the weekend, the UN troops in CAR, had to retake control of a city in the Central African Republic captured two weeks ago by armed groups waging an offensive against the government of President Faustin-Archange Touadera. Rebels abandoned their positions in Bangassou, 750km east of the capital, Bangui, and fled the city following an ultimatum on Friday from the UN peacekeeping force MINUSCA, the mission’s spokesperson Vladimir Monteiro said late on Saturday.

The incumbent, who is mainly supported by the Russians and the French, is their chosen puppet giving them free access to the country’s resources. Where on earth does the CAR find the money to buy all those expensive weaponry that is being supplied by the Russians and the French? This puppet leader has mortgaged the country’s natural resources, and the people of CAR may never enjoy their God-given resources. Its just absurd to see a naturally rich country live in perpetual poverty forever.

The same is true with regards to Mozambique. Immediately after oil and LNG was discovered in Cabo Delgado, ISIS appeared. All of a sudden, it was Jihadists wanting to set up a caliphate ruled by Islamic shari’ah.

There is also a new wave of instability being imposed on Africa. This is coming from the so-called normalisations going on the continent and in the Gulf countries. Whether people agree with me or not, I remain convinced that, the normalisations are, in themselves, instabilities. The reason being that they are not based on truth and fairness, so, they are bound to collapse, sooner or later.

Their collapse will certainly not just happen in a vacuum, it will bring a lot of instabilities, wherever it happens. You cannot build peace based on falsehood and unfairness. How can a man pretend to have peace with his neighbours when, in reality, he doesn’t have peace in his own house?

The silencing of guns on the continent will not come about until our leadership really look close at what its real causes are. I believe most of our leaders are aware of the real causes of instability on our continent, but the problem is the nature of politics that they practice.

The politics of lies and deceit are the real problem. Ten or 20 years from now, when the lies are declassified, it is when the people get to know the truth, that is unacceptable. Why not let the people know the truth now? It affects them now, and must be solved now.

My advice to our leaders in Africa is, break away from western toxic politics and practice the truth period! As a warning, the new crop of youth rising is aware of these things, and if you do not change the way you are doing things, it will be a disaster. Stand up to these powers and announce your break away from the way they do things. Aluta Continua! (The struggle continues).

* Dr Mustafa Mheta is a senior researcher and head of the Africa Desk at the Media Review Network.

U.S. Withdrawal from Somalia — SOF

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Source: SOF News | John Friberg

U.S. Africa Command has announced the formation of Joint Task Force Quartz to oversee Operation Octave Quartz – a mission designated to reposition forces from Somalia and continue the assistance effort in Somalia. In early December President Trump and the Department of Defense announced that the United States would remove some 700 military personnel from Somalia. This is an action that Trump had mentioned several times over the past year but had not directed to take place.

Some national security observers applaud the action believing that the situation in Somalia is unsolvable. They point to decades of corruption and conflict and little to show for the millions of dollars and other sacrifices made in Somalia.

However, others say that we are ceding territory to an insurgent / terrorist group affiliated with al Qaeda. These critics say that the group poses a threat to the U.S. – pointing to the attack on Camp Simba in Kenya where Americans lost their lives and to the recent news of a potential plot by an al Shabaab member to hijack an aircraft to conduct an attack in the United States.

The withdrawal is being presented to the U.S. public as a ‘repositioning of forces’. Apparently some of these forces will move into neighboring countries. Djibouti and Kenya share a border with Somalia and have been hosts of U.S. military units and activities for many years.

Joint Task Force Quartz or JTF-Quartz is built around the headquarters of Special Operations Command – Africa. The mission is to oversee Operation Octave Quartz which will reposition U.S. forces from Somalia to other bases in East Africa. JTF Quartz is commanded by the Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAF) commander Maj. Gen. Dag Anderson.

JTF-Quartz components include:

  • Joint Force Special Operations Component Command
  • Joint Force Maritime Component Command
  • Joint Air Component Coordination Element

JTF-Quartz priorities are:

  • safely reposition U.S. forces
  • protect U.S. forces through coordinated and increased force protection measures
  • continue the mission to support regional partners and keep pressure on violent extremists

U.S. Army General Stephen Townsend, the commander of U.S. Africa Command, met with African partners to provide reassurance of a sustained commitment to East Africa security. He says that the U.S. will continue to support enduring partners while maintaining pressure on violent extremist organizations in the region.

“To be clear, the U.S. is not withdrawing or disengaging from East Africa. We remain committed to helping our African partners build a more secure future. We also remain capable of striking Al-Shabaab at any time and place of our choosing – they should not test us.”

General Stephen Townsend, commander of U.S. Africa Command, Dec 2020.

The U.S. and Somalia – Quick Timeline

Cold War. During the Cold War the Horn of Africa region was a focus of attention when it came to competition between the Soviet Union and the United States for influence and military presence. Somalia was a Soviet client state for many years (1970s).

Humanitarian Mission. In the early 1990s the United States committed US forces (including SOF) to Somalia in support of the United Nations humanitarian mission. This support ended when President Clinton ended the U.S. involvement in Somalia after the “Battle of Mogadishu” where 18 US. troops lost their lives during a raid on Somali militia leaders.

Failed State. Since the early 1990s Somalia has been a ‘failed state‘. It has suffered from famine, civil war, corruption, foreign intrigue and meddling, anarchy, and more. For many years it was the center of piracy operating from the coastal area of Somalia.

Fragile State. In 2012 the formation of a federal government provided a central authority that could provide services and security for the Somalia people. However, Somalia is still afflicted with division, political infighting, and corruption and remains a ‘fragile state’.

Al Shabaab. Somalia has been fighting an insurgency by an al Qaeda-affiliated group known as al Shabaab. The group controls much of Somalia – especially in the central and southern portions of the country. Its goal is to establish an Islamic state in Somalia.

US Support. The United States , along with other international partners, are working to stabilize the country and increase the effectiveness of the security forces. The US has been a key supporter of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), provides advice and training to the Somali security forces, and conducts counterterror (CT) missions within Somalia against al Shabaab and the local ISIS affiliate. U.S. Army Special Forces (and other organizations) have been instrumental in standing up the elite Danab Brigade.

Some Americans have lost their lives in the region including a CIA paramilitary officer (Nov 2020), a soldier assigned to 3rd Special Forces (June 2018), and contract pilots and an Army air traffic controller at Camp Simba (Jan 2020) just across the border in Kenya.

Security and Governance. The war in Somalia between government forces and al Shabaab has lasted almost 15 years. The prospects for peace is dismal. International donors are becoming reluctant to pay the expenses of the African Union forces that are deployed in Somalia to assist the government with security. Relations between Somalia and Kenya have frayed. Internal tensions exist between the different regions of Somalia are not good. The various clans and sub-clans in Somalia are constantly at odds with each other and may likely erupt into violence once again.

Great Power Competition. The Defense Department is now focused on strategic competition with China and Russia. To some, that means a shift to the Pacific and Eastern Europe with an emphasis on large conventional forces with the most modern ships, aircraft, and tanks. But to others, this means the competition is more likely to take place around the world in an environment where irregular warfare (some would say political warfare) is where the real competition is.

What Comes Next?

Future of Danab? The planned withdrawal of US forces will include the Special Forces contingent tasked with supporting the Danab special operations unit. Apparently a very small contingent of the US military will remain. The US has funded, trained, and partnered with this 1,000 man unit. It is commonly known that advisor work is best accomplished with person-to-person interaction. The premise that ‘advisor work’ can be accomplished remotely is largely dismissed by most members of the military that have been advisors. Certainly emails, Zoom sessions, video conferences, and phone calls have utility but nothing compares to an advisor on the ground sharing the battlespace.

It will be interesting (and perhaps disappointing) to observe the effectiveness of Danab over the next few years. There is the possibility that U.S. intelligence organizations will maintain a presence as well as private entities providing support, instruction, and advise through contract mechanisms with the State Department or Department of Defense.

Future Prospects? The Somali government has not met the milestones for the development of its security forces – goals set by the United States and the international community. In addition, it has not taken the steps for effective governance to alleviate the root causes of insurgent and tribal conflict. According to U.S. Africa Command al Shabaab remains adaptive, resilient, and capable of attacking US, Western, and partner interests in Somalia and East Africa.

The 19,000-man multinational African Union force will withdraw by the end of 2021. A withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Somalia accompanied by a reduction of ANISOM will likely increase the opportunity for al Shabaab to increase its influence and make further territorial gains. On January 20th a new president will occupy the White House. He may opt to reverse or adjust priorities in the region.

**********

References:

Task Force Quartz. “U.S. Africa Command stands up Joint Task Force – Quartz”, United States Africa Command, December 19, 2020.

IG Report on CT in Africa. The Defense Department posted the quarterly report for counterterrorism operations in East, North, and West Africa. This 98-page report provides information on the security situation in much of Africa to include Somalia. November 2020.

Recent Analysis and Commentary on Somalia.

“Why the Somali Danab SOF is Vital to the US and to Defeating Al-Shabaab”, by Steve Balestrieri, SOFREP, January 13, 2021.

“The Way Forward for the United States in Somalia”, by Stephen M. Schwartz, Foreign Policy Research Institute, January 12, 2021. Schwartz is a former U.S. Ambassador to Somalia (2016-2017).

In Somalia, mothers fear sons were sent to Ethiopia conflict

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MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP | Washington Post) — Pressure is growing on Somalia’s government amid allegations that Somali soldiers have been sent to fight in neighboring Ethiopia’s deadly Tigray conflict.

Mothers have held rare protests in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, and elsewhere, demanding to know the fate of their children who originally were sent to Eritrea for military training. They fear their children have been deployed to the Tigray region, where Ethiopian forces have been fighting Tigray ones since November in a conflict that threatens to destabilize the Horn of Africa.

“I heard that our children who were sent to Eritrea for military training have been taken and their responsibility was turned over to (Ethiopian Prime Minister) Abiy Ahmed to fight for him,” Fatuma Moallim Abdulle, the mother of 20-year-old soldier Ahmed Ibrahim Jumaleh, told The Associated Press.

“According to the information I gathered, our children were taken straight to Mekele city,” the capital of the Tigray region, she said. “You may understand how I feel, I am a mother who carried her child for nine months in my belly, that’s my blood and flesh.”

Ethiopia this week denied reports of the presence of Somali soldiers in Tigray, and it continued to deny the presence of Eritrean ones.

Abiy made peace with neighboring Eritrea in 2018, for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Now critics say Ethiopian and Eritrean forces have teamed up in the conflict against a common enemy in the now-fugitive Tigray leaders, who dominated Ethiopia’s government for nearly three decades before Abiy took office and embarked on around of regional peacemaking that included Somalia.

Somalia President Abdullahi Mohamed Abdullahi has been asked by the head of the country’s parliamentary committee on foreign affairs, Abdulqadir Ossoble Ali, to investigate allegations of participation in the Tigray conflict.

“We have the oversight right to check what our government is doing,” Ali wrote in the letter distributed to media outlets.

And the former deputy director for Somalia’s intelligence agency, Ismael Dahir Osman, has said “it is a question worth asking why these soldiers are not yet back home after more than a year when their training would have concluded long ago.”

Somalia’s information minister, Osman Abokor Dubbe, this week denied the “propaganda” that Somali soldiers who had been outside the country for training have been involved in the Tigray conflict.

“There are no Somali troops requested by the Ethiopian government to fight for them and fight in Tigray,” he said.

The issue has emerged at a sensitive time in Somalia. The country is set to hold national elections in the coming weeks, but two federal states have refused to participate and the opposition accuses the president of trying to push ahead with a partial vote.

“The parents of those children keep calling us and they don’t have any contact with their children, and some of them were told that their boys have died,” one opposition presidential candidate, Abdurahman Abdishakur Warsame, told the AP. “According to the information we’re receiving, those boys were taken to the war in northern Ethiopia. We’re calling for an independent national commission to investigate the matter, and if it is proven to be true, it will amount to treason of national scale.”

‘We don’t want war with Ethiopia,’ Sudan’s Sovereign Council says

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Ahram Online | The spokesperson argued the only way the border conflict can be solved is through resorting to technical committees that will handle the demarcation process.

The spokesperson of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, the transitional civilian-military body which governs the country, said that Khartoum “doesn’t want war with Ethiopia,” amid an ongoing dispute along the 1600-km border between the two countries.

Speaking to Al-Arabiya on Friday, Mohamed Al-Fakki stressed that Sudan is “capable of protecting our lands and restoring those left with Ethiopia,” adding that his country does not seek either a direct or proxy war with Addis Ababa.

“We only want our land,” Al-Fakki explained, adding that “the eruption of war between Sudan and Ethiopia is not in the region’s interest.”

Al-Fakki, moreover, highlighted that Sudan “entered the territories peacefully,” and that “If Sudan wants war, we would have entered Al-Fashqa since day one.”

“Why would Ethiopia accept to demarcate the border with Juba on basis of the 1902 [Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty] deal and refuse to have a similar one with Sudan,” Al-Fakki asked.

He also argued that the only way this border conflict can be solved is through resorting to technical committees that will handle the demarcation process.

Sudan has complained for years about attacks by Ethiopian farmers against its territories, counting on the support of Ethiopian militias to expel Sudanese citizens from their homes and take their possessions.

Last month, Sudan accused Ethiopia forces and militias of attacking Sudanese troops along the border, leaving four dead and more than 20 injured.

Media reports suggest that the conflict has taken place in agricultural land in Al-Fashqa, an eastern border region inside Sudan’s national boundaries, where Khartoum recently deployed troops.

In December, Sudan’s Information Minister Faisal Saleh told Reuters that “our army will do its duty to take back all our land, currently our army has taken back between 60 and 70 percent of Sudanese land.”

Saleh explained that Sudanese forces had clashed and acted defensively for two days against Ethiopian “regular forces” not militias.

“Sudanese intelligence reports confirmed that the organisation, training and arming of the forces that attacked were not militias but regular forces,” said Saleh.

Last month, both sides concluded a two-day meeting with the High-Level Political Committee that took place between top-level officials from the two countries.

The meeting was attended by Ethiopia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Top Diplomat Demeke Mekonnen, while Sudan’s Cabinet Affairs Minister Omar Munis led his country’s delegation.

No settlement has been reached so far on the border dispute, as military tensions along the borders continue to persist.

Is Egypt behind Sudanese escalation on border with Ethiopia

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Source: Al-Monitor | Khalid Hassan

With the intensifying border conflict between Sudan and Ethiopia and the success of the Sudanese army in controlling the border areas where Ethiopian farmers have been living for decades, Ethiopia has been hurling accusations of a third party planning, funding and executing the recent confrontations on the border between the two countries.

Sudan’s Sovereignty Council Chairman Abdul Fattah Burhan said at a Jan. 16 press conference that deployment of Sudanese troops on the border with Ethiopia and the army’s control of the border areas were driven by domestic willingness, rather than foreign incitement. He denied the presence of any party pitting Sudan against Ethiopia.

Burhan’s comments came in response to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s statement on Dec. 24 claiming that several parties, which he did not name, seek to undermine the relations between Ethiopia and Sudan and that these parties — in reference to Egypt — plotted, funded and executed the recent border confrontations between the two countries.

The Sudanese-Ethiopian border has been witnessing in the past weeks unprecedented escalation between the Sudanese army and its Ethiopian counterpart over the disputed al-Faqsha border region.

On Jan. 13, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that a military Ethiopian aircraft entered Sudanese airspace, warning that such a move could have serious repercussions.

On Jan. 12, Sudan announced that al-Liya and Koli areas in al-Fashqa locality in western Sudan suffered an armed aggression from Ethiopian militias, killing five women and a child.

On Jan. 11, the Ethiopian military aircraft executed its first air sorties on the border areas in the Amhara region near eastern Sundus in the eastern Sudanese Qallabat locality.

The latest Ethiopian escalation comes after Sudanese troops launched a military attack on the border area and took control of al-Faqsha region on Dec. 31. In a Jan. 12 statement, Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Dina Mufti, accused Sudan of infiltrating into Ethiopian territories.

In light of the escalating conflict between the two countries, a high-ranking Sudanese convoy headed to Egypt Jan. 14 in an urgent visit and met with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. They discussed the border developments between Sudan and Ethiopia.

Directly after the meeting, Sudan announced Jan. 14 a ban on civil aviation and overflights in the airspace of the Gedaref state on the border with Ethiopia, thus prompting questions about the implication of Cairo in the crisis and whether it is using Sudan to pressure Ethiopia in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis.

Ethiopian writer specializing in Ethiopian affairs Noureddin Abda told Al-Monitor that Sudan has been leaning toward escalation as of late. Its intervention to control the border area, its strict stances and withdrawal from the latest negotiations on the GERD, and its accusation of Ethiopia of being stubborn all prove this. He said that Sudan has adopted a completely different strategy in its relations with Ethiopia lately.

On Nov. 18, Sudan announced its withdrawal from the GERD negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

On Jan. 11, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it would resort to other options if the African Union (AU) does not play a greater role in the GERD talks.

Abda noted, “The Egyptian role has been clear since the onset of the [border] crisis, when Egypt announced its full support for Sudan, which was followed by unprecedented Sudanese escalation on the borders through military mobilization and Burhan’s repeated visits to the borderline and his refusal of a truce.”

On Jan. 2, Sisi expressed in a phone call with Burhan his country’s complete support for Sudan in various fields, in light of the tight relations between the national security of both Egypt and Sudan.

On Jan. 13, Burhan and senior army commanders headed to the border area with Ethiopia where they stressed the ability of the armed forces to protect the land and maintain the country’s security.

Shifaa Afari, a writer and analyst specialized in African affairs, told Al-Monitor that Ethiopia is in a critical state and is avoiding escalation. For that reason, it is seeking a truce as it would be the biggest loser in the war. He said, “Ethiopia is a disintegrated state, especially following the Tigray war, and any escalation would negatively impact its situation.”

On Nov. 5, Ethiopia waged a military operation on the Tigray region in the north of the country to regain control of it.

On Dec. 24, Ahmed said that his government was intent on halting disputes and stopping clashes between the Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front for good on the borders.

Afari believes that Egypt will directly intervene if an all-out military confrontation breaks out between Ethiopia and Sudan.

Samir Ghattas, head of the Middle East Forum for Strategic Studies, argued that Egypt does not want to show its support for Sudan publicly. He noted that Egypt will back Sudan militarily, economically and politically, but without being in the spotlight, in an attempt to garner Sudanese support to pressure Ethiopia in the GERD issue.

“Egypt is well aware that Sudan is key for the course of negotiations, given the Ethiopian obstinacy. Therefore it has sought to tighten its military and political ties with Sudan and succeeded,” he said.

On Nov. 1, official spokesperson for the Egyptian army Tamer al-Rifai said that the commanders of the Egyptian and Sudanese armies who met in Khartoum agreed to boost cooperation in the fields of training, exchange of expertise and border security.

On Nov. 14, the Egyptian army launched joint military exercises between Egypt and Sudan, the first such drills between Egyptian and Sudanese special air forces.

On Nov. 20, Egypt’s National Organization for Military Production signed a memorandum of understanding with Sudan’s Military Industry Corporation to boost cooperation across all fields of military production.

Ghattas concluded, “It is true that Egypt played a role in the recent Sudanese escalation, but it does not want to stir a complete military confrontation between them [Sudan and Ethiopia]. It only wants a military escalation to achieve a political solution, which is the delay of the second filling of the GERD until a final solution is reached, since filling the dam has negative repercussions on the flow of water to Egypt.”

On Aug. 20, 2020, Ahmed said that the second phase of filling the GERD’s reservoir would start in August and that Ethiopia will not wait until the negotiations conclude to begin the filling operation. Around 18.4 billion cubic meters are expected to be filled, he added

Ghattas expects Ethiopia to cave in to Egyptian and Sudanese pressure and to delay filling the dam until the negotiations are concluded, especially since Ahmed does not want to open new fronts with the internal elections just around the corner.

On Dec. 25, the Electoral Council in Ethiopia announced its plan to organize parliamentary elections June 5.

Ethiopia Denies Somalia Forces Involved in Fighting in Tigray

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Bloomberg | By Simon Marks and Mohammed Omar Ahmed

  • Somali lawmaker has asked president to investigate issue
  • Claim follows reports that Eritrea forces deployed in Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s government denied that Somali soldiers fought alongside federal troops in the ongoing conflict in its Tigray region.

The head of Somalia’s parliamentary committee on foreign affairs on Jan. 18 asked Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed to investigate complaints by family members that their sons had gone missing while fighting in Ethiopia. Somalia’s former deputy spy chief said in an interview this week with local broadcaster GoobJoog TV that hundreds of Somali soldiers may have died in the clashes.

The use of Somali troops would provide more evidence that the war in Tigray, which the Ethiopian government has characterized as a domestic issue, has grown into a regional confrontation. Tigray’s leaders last year alleged that troops from neighboring Eritrea were also involved in the conflict, prompting the U.S. to call for their withdrawal.

“We have seen reports about Eritrean troops that have crossed into Ethiopia,” Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti said in a statement. “We are also witnessing similar reports about Somalian soldiers participating in the same campaign. Both of these claims are false and unfounded.”

Regional Ties

The involvement of Somali troops, if confirmed, could stem from a tripartite accord signed between the leaders of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea in 2018 aimed at strengthening regional security and economic ties, said Omar Mahmood, a senior Somalia analyst for the International Crisis Group.

“One outgrowth of this has been the Eritrean training of Somali troops,” Mahmood said. “It is these troops that are now alleged to have been present during the fighting in Tigray, and suffered high casualties.”

Somali Information Minister Osman Dubbe told reporters in Mogadishu earlier that reports of its fighters going missing were “fabricated” for political reasons. Somalia is preparing to hold presidential elections next month.

The Ethiopian government and the dissident Tigray People’s Liberation Front have been at war since Nov. 4. Many of the TPLF’s senior leaders are still at large, though several key members of the party — including four of its nine-member executive committee — have been either captured or killed in the past two weeks.

The conflict has threatened to spill into neighboring Sudan. Earlier this month, it and Ethiopia traded accusations of breaching each other’s border, leading to deadly clashes around al-Fashqa, an area of fertile farming land that straddles the two nations.

U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, speaking Thursday during a trip to Sudan for talks with the transitional government, called for the two countries to avoid escalating tensions. He’s due in Ethiopia later in the day.

— With assistance by Michael Gunn