HORN OF AFRICA

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How Egypt is supporting Sudan in border conflict

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Al-Monitor — A delegation from the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, headed by Lt. Gen. Shamseldin al-Kabashi and Director of the General Intelligence Service Jamal Abdul Majeed, visited Cairo Jan. 14, where they met with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to discuss the latest developments on the border conflict with Ethiopia and the military operations led by the Sudanese army to liberate the territories from the armed Ethiopian militias.

The visit came as part of Sudan’s regional moves that are expected to include other visits to Arab countries, namely the Gulf, such as Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, to request “diplomatic and legal support,” according to a Jan. 14 statement by Sudanese Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din.

However, on Jan. 25, tensions escalated on the Sudanese-Ethiopian border when violent clashes with heavy weapons and artillery broke out in the Jabal Abu al-Toyour border area.

In December 2020, the Sudanese army deployed its soldiers on the border in al-Fashqa region to liberate Sudanese lands from groups affiliated with the Ethiopian militias that have been benefiting from the cultivation of hundreds of acres of fertile land since 1995.

A diplomatic source familiar with Egyptian-Sudanese ties told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “Egypt has been carefully observing the tension on the Sudanese borders since the beginning of the skirmishes because it is concerned with protecting peace and security in the African region, especially in the neighboring countries.”

He said, “Cairo has taken no recent action to support any of the conflicting parties, but Egypt welcomes Sudan’s request for support and assistance in its legal position to regain and liberate its lands.”

The source noted, “Egypt adopts policies that support peaceful solutions through dialogue and negotiation to restore peace and resolve all outstanding issues.”

He explained, “Restoring calm between Khartoum and Addis Ababa would be in Cairo’s interest — unlike what Ethiopia has been promoting in the media by throwing accusations against Egypt.”

Cairo has made no official comment on the border conflict between Khartoum and Addis Ababa since the beginning of the crisis, except in an strongly worded statement from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Dec. 31, 2020, in response to statements by Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti. The latter had touched on the Egyptian internal affairs by criticizing the human rights situation in Egypt. Cairo considered the statement a “blatant transgression,” accusing Ethiopia of pursuing “continuous hostile practices against its regional surroundings,” referring to the Ethiopian attacks on Sudanese territory.

Egypt and Sudan are both committed to the Treaty of Joint Defense and Economic Cooperation, under the umbrella of the Arab League, which stipulates in Article 2, “The Contracting States consider any [act of] armed aggression made against any one or more of them or their armed forces, to be directed against them all. Therefore, in accordance with the right of self-defense, individually and collectively, they undertake to go without delay to the aid of the State or States against which such an act of aggression is made, and immediately to take, individually and collectively, all steps available, including the use of armed force, to repel the aggression and restore security and peace.”

Maj. Gen. Khaled Okasha, a security expert and head of the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor, “Egypt is well aware of the sensitivity of the tripartite relationship between it and Sudan and Ethiopia, and interfering in this conflict will worsen the situation without resolving it.”

He noted, “Sudan is able to recover its lands through all legal, diplomatic and military means, and it does not need Egypt’s support. Egypt realizes that these are all recurring conflicts and are not of a level that threatens Egyptian national security.”

However, Okasha added, “The escalating tension between Sudan and Ethiopia over the lands in al-Fashqa region revealed the true positions of Ethiopia, which has long claimed to be a sister country of Sudan that protects its interests in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam [GERD] issue.”

In an unprecedented military cooperation between Egypt and Sudan, units from Egypt’s air force and Saiqa (Thunderbolt) commando forces carried out joint air maneuvers with Sudan, dubbed Nile Eagles-1, on Nov. 19, 2020. The maneuvers included a number of offensive and defensive sorties on targets, while the Saiqa forces carried out drills on combat search and rescue work.

Okasha stressed, “The Egyptian military maneuvers with Sudan are not an exceptional situation, but rather a restoration of normal relations between the two countries, which had been tense throughout the period of Islamic rule in Sudan.”

In a Jan. 25 interview with Al-Arabiya channel, Sudanese Minister of Defense Lt. Gen. Yassin Ibrahim Yassin linked the border dispute with Ethiopia to the GERD negotiations, noting that “the common factor in both cases is the Ethiopian delay.”

Speaking about the possibilities of Egyptian intervention to mediate between Sudan and Ethiopia to solve the border crisis, Mona Omar, a former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister, told Al-Monitor, “I rule out such a possibility, especially with Ethiopia’s intransigent positions with Egypt in the GERD negotiations and its lack of respect for the historical charters and agreements that define mechanisms for dealing with the Nile water.”

She said, “At the present time Egypt can offer to support Sudan by raising the [border] issue in international forums and providing legal support.”

Omar noted, “Egypt’s policy does not consist of working in secret or fueling conflict between two countries, especially since Cairo is well aware that should the Sudanese-Ethiopian tension no longer be limited to mere clashes, it would have negative effects and repercussions on security in the region.”

She added, “Despite the internal calls to resort to a military solution against Ethiopia in the GERD issue — which is a matter of life and death for Egypt — the Egyptian administration committed itself to peaceful dialogue and negotiation as a way to solve the crisis.”

Since the outbreak of the confrontations with Ethiopia on the eastern border of Sudan, Khartoum has taken more hard-line stances on the GERD issue, completely rejecting the Ethiopian positions during the negotiations rounds sponsored by the African Union (AU).

Sudanese government spokesman and Minister of Information Faisal Saleh said in a press statement Jan. 23, “Sudan will not accept the imposition of a fait accompli in the GERD [issue], and we have the means to respond to Ethiopia. AU mediation [in the GERD issue] in its old form is no longer useful.”

Egypt’s moves to support Sudan in its border conflict with Ethiopia come as part of a new era of cooperation and coordination between Cairo and Khartoum to stop any threats affecting the common interests and national security of the two countries, especially in the Nile water file.

Parents of Somali soldiers fear sons fighting in Ethiopia

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Mogadishu (AFP) | Somalia is under growing pressure to explain the fate of soldiers whose families fear they were secretly deployed from training camps in neighbouring Eritrea to fight in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region.

The government has strenuously denied allegations that Somali troops were sent to battlefields in Tigray, where Ethiopian federal troops have been fighting with regional forces since November.

But some lawmakers have written to Somalia’s president appealing for information on behalf of desperate parents who say their sons in uniform have gone missing, and they have reason to believe they could be in Tigray.

Hussein Ibrahim said his son was told he was going to Qatar for training, but wound up in Eritrea.

“I last spoke with my son 22 days ago. He told me he was fine but concerned, because some of his comrades were relocated from the camp and he didn’t know to where,” he said.

“I don’t know who to ask about his fate. There are reports everywhere that those taken to Eritrea were sent to fight in Ethiopia, and that some had died.”

Information minister Osman Abukar Dubbe on January 19 said “there were no Somali troops fighting in Tigray, and no such request made by the Ethiopian government”, describing reports to the contrary as “propaganda”.

– ‘Alive or not’? –

But the whereabouts of the missing soldiers remains unclear, and the plight of their families has struck a chord in Somalia and raised difficult questions for politicians preparing for a fraught national election which had been scheduled for next month but is beset with delays.

“We need the Somali president to hear our appeal, and tell us if our children are alive or not,” said Fadumo Moalim Abdulle, who believes her son was sent to Eritrea after being told he was going to Qatar.

In a letter dated January 18, the foreign relations committee asked President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, better known by his nickname Farmajo, for “details about the number of soldiers in Eritrea for training, and when they are coming back to the country”.

“We also understand that many parents have not been able to contact their children for some time, only to hear they were killed fighting in Tigray with government forces,” the letter stated.

“Confirm where these soldiers are now, and put them in touch with their parents.”

A military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that some recruits were sent to Eritrea for training “but these reports about Somali soldiers sent to Tigray are baseless”.

But Abdisalam Guleid, a former Somali deputy spy chief, told AFP that “Somalia had indeed entered the war, and that many soldiers had died,” citing intelligence from Ethiopian counterparts.

– ‘Hush hush’ –

After three weeks of fighting, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared victory in late November against the TPLF, the ruling party in Tigray, after the army captured the regional capital Mekele.

But the TPLF leadership remains on the run and has vowed to fight on. Thousands have died so far in the conflict, according to the International Crisis Group.

The fighting has raised concerns for stability in the wider Horn of Africa, with fears that Ethiopia’s neighbours could be dragged into a regional conflict.

Ethiopia last week denied the presence of Somali troops in Tigray, and continued to dismiss witness accounts of Eritrean involvement in the conflict.

“Ethiopia has never invited any of the neighbouring countries or others to be part of this conflict. This is an internal matter; the Ethiopian army has done it by itself,” said Dina Mufti, spokesman for Ethiopia’s foreign affairs ministry.

In December, the US State Department said it was “aware of credible reports of Eritrean military involvement in Tigray” and called for their withdrawal. This month the state-affiliated Ethiopian Human Rights Commission accused Eritrean troops of looting in Tigray.

Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 in large part for initiating a rapprochement with Eritrea, whose President Isaias Afwerki and the TPLF remain bitter enemies.

Abiy also forged a three-way regional security arrangement with Eritrea and Somalia.

Analysts say it is plausible small numbers of Eritrean-trained Somalis were sent to Tigray, given Eritrea’s long history of using regional forces under its tutelage for its own strategic gain.

“What’s clear is that troops have gone to Eritrea. Some have come back. But the government has never given any details about these troops, not even their numbers or the fact there are cohorts,” said one regional security analyst, who asked not to be named.

“It’s all hush hush.”

US says Eritrean forces should leave Tigray immediately

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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The United States says all soldiers from Eritrea should leave Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region “immediately.”

A State Department spokesperson in an email to The Associated Press late Tuesday cited “credible reports of looting, sexual violence, assaults in refugee camps and other human rights abuses.”

“There is also evidence of Eritrean soldiers forcibly returning Eritrean refugees from Tigray to Eritrea,” the spokesperson said.

The statement reflects new pressure by the Biden administration on the government of Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country with 114 million people and the anchor of the Horn of Africa, and other combatants as the deadly fighting in Tigray nears the three-month mark.

The AP this week cited witnesses who fled the Tigray region as saying Eritrean soldiers were looting, going house-to-house killing young men and even acting as local authorities. The Eritreans have been fighting on the side of Ethiopian forces as they pursue the fugitive leaders of the Tigray region, though Ethiopia’s government has denied their presence.

The U.S. stance has shifted dramatically from the early days of the conflict when the Trump administration praised Eritrea for its “restraint.”

The new U.S. statement calls for an independent and transparent investigation into alleged abuses. “It remains unclear how many Eritrean soldiers are in Tigray, or precisely where,” it says.

It was not immediately clear whether the U.S. has addressed its demand directly to Eritrean officials. And the office of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed did not immediately respond to questions.

Witnesses have estimated that the Eritrean soldiers number in the thousands. Eritrean officials have not responded to questions. The information minister for Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive countries, this week tweeted that “the rabid defamation campaign against Eritrea is on the rise again.“

The U.S. also seeks an immediate stop to the fighting in Tigray and “full, safe and unhindered humanitarian access” to the region, which remains largely cut off from the outside world, with Ethiopian forces often accompanying aid.

“We are gravely concerned by credible reports that hundreds of thousands of people may starve to death if urgent humanitarian assistance is not mobilized immediately,” the statement says.

The United Nations in its latest humanitarian update said it is receiving reports of “rising hunger” in Tigray and cited a “dire lack of access to food” since many farmers in the largely agricultural region missed the harvest because of the fighting, and as “critical staff” to scale up the humanitarian response can’t access the region. Transport, electricity, banking and other links “have yet to be restored in much of the region,” the U.N. said, and 78% of hospitals remain nonfunctional.

“Our concern is that what we don’t know could be even more disturbing,” U.N. children’s agency chief Henrietta Fore said in a statement Wednesday. “For 12 weeks, the international humanitarian community has had very limited access to conflict-affected populations across most of Tigray.”

Vaccinations have stopped across the region, Fore added.

The U.S. statement added that “dialogue is essential between the government and Tigrayans.” Ethiopia’s government has rejected dialogue with the former Tigray leaders, seeing them as illegitimate, and has appointed an interim administration.

The former Tigray leaders, in turn, objected to Ethiopia delaying a national election last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic and considered Abiy’s mandate over.

Sudanese patrol shelled by Ethiopian forces. Ethiopia asks Sudan to pull troops out for border talks

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Sudanese patrol shelled by Ethiopian forces.

Tension has escalated between Sudan, Ethiopia along their borderline.

A Sudanese patrol came under shelling from Ethiopian forces on Sunday near the border with Ethiopia, according to local media.

Sudan Tribune news portal, citing a military source, said mortar shells were fired by Ethiopian forces at the patrol in the eastern Al-Gadaref province.

No injuries were reported and the Sudanese military has yet to issue an official statement.

The attack came amid rising tensions between Khartoum and Addis Ababa over their borderline.

Last week, Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok informed UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that Sudanese forces were deployed within the country’s borders. Hamdok stressed that Khartoum was not seeking war with Addis Ababa.

Sudan accuses Ethiopia of supporting militias that attack Sudanese army forces in the border area, an accusation denied by Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia asks Sudan to pull troops out for border talks

Ethiopia on Tuesday reiterated its call for Sudan to pull back from disputed territories its troops have been in since late last year.

In late December, Sudanese soldiers reportedly moved up to 40 kilometers (25 miles) into Ethiopian-held territories, including the contested fertile agricultural region of Al-Fashaga, which Ethiopia called an act of blackmail by its western neighbor.

Ethiopia then launched a diplomatic effort to get Sudanese forces out of the territories to promote a return to the normal mechanisms of dialogue to resolve the century-long border dispute.

“Ethiopia is committed to a peaceful resolution of the border differences with Sudan,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti told a weekly news briefing.

Any possibility of mediation would require Sudan to pull its forces to positions prior to late December, when Ethiopia first signaled a breach of its borders, he added.

“We have had mechanisms, technical and political committees,” he said, adding that the two countries need to get back to those resolution mechanisms through dialogue.

Asked how long Ethiopia would maintain a diplomatic stance while Sudan remains in the contested territories, Dina said: “We will cross that river when we come to it.”

Sudanese military leaders have not shown any sign of heeding Ethiopia’s call, though, and reiterate they reclaimed their own territories.

The Horn of Africa nation decries how Sudan, otherwise considered a friendly neighbor, took the move when Ethiopia’s defense forces were busy dealing with the outlawed Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) after it stormed the federal army’s Northern Command last year, killing soldiers and looting military hardware

Sudan Responds with Force to Border Attack from Ethiopia

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Asharq Al-Awsat | The Sudanese military responded with artillery fire to an attack from Ethiopia against its forces deployed on a share border region with its neighbor.

Ethiopian forces struck the Jabal Abutiour border region on Sunday. The area is controlled by Sudan. No casualties were reported.

Amid the clashes, a military delegation, headed by chief of staff Mohammed Othman al-Hussein, headed to the border region to assess the latest developments and military operations.

The fighting took place despite statements from Khartoum and Addis Ababa that they wanted to avoid a border war. They instead stressed the need for negotiations to defuse tensions.

Ethiopia has, however, conditioned that the military withdraw from regions that were recaptured. Sudan has rejected any negotiations on the border, saying its forces are controlling their country’s territories.

It also says that the borders are recognized internationally and all that remains is to set the markers that have been removed due to the nature of the area. It urged the need to set the markers within close distances from each other whereby each point can be seen from the next with the naked eye.

Sudanese Defense Minister Yassin Ibrahim Yassin told Al Arabiya that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s remarks about “disputed regions” prompted Khartoum to dispatch military units to impose their control over Sudanese regions on the border.

Yassin slammed the PM’s remarks over the alleged border dispute, saying the borders are “clearly demarcated according to international agreements.”

He also refused to link the border developments to the stalled negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

“The common factor in both these issues is Ethiopia’s stalling,” he charged. “We do not acknowledge a dispute in the first place so negotiations are not valid.”

Tensions have been high on the border since December after the Sudanese military redeployed its forces in the al-Fashqa region, expelling Ethiopian militias that were controlling it.

The move was prompted by an attack by the militias against Sudanese forces.

The Three-Country Alliance Against Tigray Might Jeopardize Ethiopia’s Future – Analysis

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Eurasia Review | Martin Plaut

The Tigray war has turned into an all-out conflict, pitting Tigrayan forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation front (TPLF) against Ethiopian federal troops, the Eritrean army, Amhara militia and – as revealed last week – Somali soldiers.

Despite what would seem to be overwhelming odds against them, the Tigrayans appear to be holding their own in large areas of the region.

Both Eritrea and Somalia routinely deny any involvement in the war, but the evidence of their presence is strong.

On December 8, Reuters reported that “a U.S. government source and five regional diplomats” told them the US believes Eritrean soldiers have crossed into Ethiopia. The EU and UK support this assessment.

A senior Ethiopian general confirmed that Eritrean troops were in Tigray. Major General Belay Seyoum, head of the Northern Command, described the presence of foreign forces on Ethiopian soil as “painful”.

The Eritrea-Ethiopia-Somali alliance

The alliance has its origins in the ending of hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Much of the groundwork for this rapprochement was done by the United States, with Donald Yamamoto playing a critical role behind the scenes, although Washington could hardly have envisaged where this would lead.

On July 8-9, 2018 Prime Minister Abiy visited Asmara to seal the peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia. In the same month, the ice between Eritrea and Somalia was broken, with a three-day visit by Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed to Asmara. It was the first visit by a Somali president to Eritrea since it gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993. The two nations have not had diplomatic ties in nearly 15 years.

Abdinur Mohamed, a spokesman for the Somali president, said on Twitter that the country “is ready to write a new chapter of its relations with Eritrea.” Economic and security concerns are at the top of the agenda, as well as “regional issues of interest to both countries,” Eritrea’s information ministry said.

There were further bilateral visits in August 2018 and April 2019. This culminated in a summit between the leaders of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia on January 27, 2020, held in Asmara.

The communique committed the three leaders to consolidate “peace, stability, and security as well as promoting economic and social development. They also agreed to bolster their joint efforts to foster effective regional cooperation.”

There was no press conference at which the details of the agreement might be explained. The public was left in the dark about what the leaders were planning.

Further meetings took place in the run-up to the outbreak of war in Tigray:

  • Prime Minister Abiy made a rare visit to the Eritrea main training base at Sawa in July 2020.
  • Somali President Farmajo arrived in Asmara on 4 October.
  • President Isaias went to Ethiopia on October 14-15. This trip included seeing the Ethiopian air-force base at Bishofu.

Within three weeks, on November 4, 2020, the Tigray war erupted. Is it credible that the war was not discussed, and a strategy agreed between the three leaders at these meetings?

War aims

The first priority of the alliance is to remove the Tigrayan administration from Tigray. President Isaias has long loathed the TPLF. This goes back to the 1970’s and 80’s when the Eritreans and Tigrayans fell out over ideology, tactics and strategy.

Prime Minister Abiy also wants to rid himself of the vestiges of power of the previous Ethiopian government, which the TPLF controlled. He is attempting to reverse their policy of “ethnic federalism.”

Beyond this, outlines of a plan were revealed when information was leaked about a meeting held by President Isaias just prior to the outbreak of the war.

According to reports citing well-placed sources, President Isaias brought together his closest confidantes on the eve of the Tigray war. He said that Eritrea had to accept that it had a small economy and a lengthy Red Sea coast that it cannot patrol on its own. He suggested forming some sort of “union” with Ethiopia, at least in terms of economic co-operation and maritime security.

If accurate, President Isaias appeared to have echoed Abiy’s grandiose dream of re-establishing the old empire-state of Ethiopia. This includes suggestions that the Ethiopian navy could be reconstructed – a proposal supported by France. This would require the use of Eritrean ports which were once home to the Imperial Ethiopian Navy.

The idea of some form of union may not be as far-fetched as it would appear, despite the fact Isaias previously led Eritrea’s decades-long war to gain independence from Ethiopia.

It should not be forgotten that when President Isaias made his first visit to Addis Ababa in July 2018 he made what many Eritreans regarded as an extraordinary offer: for a joint administration of both countries.

“This is a historic day for all of us,” President Isaias Afwerki said. “Anyone who thinks the people of Eritrea and Ethiopia are separated is considered as naïve from now on.”  In a speech, Abiy said the countries had agreed to develop together and that Isaias had offered to help “lead this great nation.” He added that “we have finally found our sister nation after many years of hiding.”

This vision – of co-suzerainty – or a revised form of federation, appears to be behind the current conflict.

Regional blocs

In September 2020 Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia held their third trilateral meeting. They proposed to form a new regional bloc, which has been referred to as the “Horn of Africa Cooperation”.

The flaw in this proposal was commented on at the time. “Creating an economic and political bloc may seem a solution to bring peace and boost trade. But it risks sparking distrust from other East African countries, and with the other regional body, IGAD,” the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which Eritrea has long distrusted.

The Horn of Africa Cooperation could be linked to the wider ambition of the Saudis to extend their influence in the Horn of Africa. The “Council of the Arab and African States bordering the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden” was launched in January 2020. This new Arab-African alliance has eight members: Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Jordan and Yemen.

Conclusion

These plans depend on succeeding to crush the Tigrayans. At the moment this appears a distant prospect, despite Prime Minister Abiy’s assertion in November that it was little more than a “law enforcement”  operation that would soon be over.

If the war goes badly, and Eritrea, Somalia and the rest of Ethiopia becomes sucked into the conflict, the conflict could threaten the future of Ethiopia itself.  This was the warning from senior African experts at the US Institute of Peace.

“As members of the bipartisan senior study group on peace and security in the Red Sea arena, we are watching with grave concern the situation in Ethiopia. While many of the facts remain unclear, the risks of escalation are certain: Intrastate or interstate conflict would be catastrophic for Ethiopia’s people and for the region and would pose a direct threat to international peace and security.

The acceleration of polarization amid violent conflict would also mark the death knell for the country’s nascent reform effort that began two years ago and the promise of a democratic transition that it heralded.

As we cautioned in the study group’s Final Report and Recommendations released on October 29, the fragmentation of Ethiopia would be the largest state collapse in modern history. Ethiopia is five times the size of pre-war Syria by population, and its breakdown would lead to mass interethnic and interreligious conflict; a dangerous vulnerability to exploitation by extremists; an acceleration of illicit trafficking, including of arms; and a humanitarian and security crisis at the crossroads of Africa and the Middle East on a scale that would overshadow any existing conflict in the region, including Yemen.

As Ethiopia is currently the leading Troop Contributing Country to the United Nations and the African Union peacekeeping missions in Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia, its collapse would also significantly impact the efforts by both to mitigate and resolve others conflicts in the Horn of Africa.”

Sudan prevents ambassador from travelling back to Ethiopia by land

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MEMO | Sudan has prevented Ambassador Yibtalal Amero from travelling overland back to Ethiopia due to tension on the border between the two countries.

A security source told Anadolu Agency that the Ethiopian ambassador submitted a request to the security services in Khartoum on Saturday to allow him to travel by land to his country. The fact that an answer is still not forthcoming implies rejection of the application.

The authorities in Khartoum apparently fear that the ambassador’s life might be endangered due to the situation on the border and in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region. The ambassador, explained the same source, flew to Addis Ababa, where he arrived safely.

On 4 November, armed clashes erupted between the Ethiopian Federal Army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. The federal government in Addis Ababa announced on 28 November that its forces had ended their operation successfully by controlling the entire region and its capital.

Sudanese-Ethiopian relations have been tense along the border, sparked by an armed attack against the Sudanese army in Umm Durman in mid-December. Khartoum said that Ethiopian militias had seized the land of Sudanese farmers in the Fashaqa area, after expelling them by force of arms. Sudan also accused the Ethiopian army of supporting these gangs, which Addis Ababa denies, describing the armed groups are outlaws.

Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok announced last Sunday that Sudan has agreed to South Sudan mediating to resolve border disputes between his country and Ethiopia.

Sudan calls on Ethiopia to close GERD deal

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Sudanese Minister of Culture and Information Faisal Saleh has expressed concern over the second filling of Ethiopia’s Great Renaissance Dam (GERD), Al-Arabiya news reported .

The dam cannot be brought into operation until Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa reach a binding agreement, he said. This is a legally confirmed document that will allow three parties to regulate the water level in the bed of the Blue Nile River.

Faisal Saleh expressed concern about Sudan amid Ethiopia’s unwavering commitment to begin the second filling of the dam in July this year, despite the lack of agreement.

“We do not agree with the imposition of a fait accompli. The Khartoum authorities are ready to give an appropriate rebuff in case of arbitrariness of Addis Ababa,” the head of the Ministry of Culture and Information said.

Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok met last week with the country’s GERD High Monitoring Committee, where he said it is unacceptable to risk the safety of the 20 million citizens whose lives depend on the Blue Nile.

Recall that in the summer of 2020, Ethiopia announced the successful filling of the Renaissance Dam (4.9 billion cubic meters) during the rainy season.

A few days later, Sudan recorded a decrease in the water level in the Blue Nile, coming from Ethiopia. This has sparked disputes between countries, including Egypt, lasting more than half a year.

The Sudanese-Ethiopian relations have been witnessing an escalating tension for weeks due to armed attacks on the borders of the two countries, which Khartoum says were carried out by Ethiopian militias backed by government forces on Sudanese territory.

On January 12, Sudan announced that Ethiopian forces launched an attack on the Al-Fashaqa area within the Sudanese borders in Gedaref State, killing 6 people, 5 women and a child.

In turn, Ethiopia accused the Sudanese forces of “seizing 9 camps” within the Ethiopian borders and “violating the agreement signed between the two countries in 1972 on border issues by invading Ethiopian territory.”

Last week, Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti accused Egypt of intensifying its destabilization efforts against Ethiopia and the volatile Horn of Africa region. “The Egyptian government is pushing Sudan to engage in a conflict with Ethiopia, in its bid to weaken both countries,” the official said.

Recently, an Egyptian official admitted Egypt’s concerted effort to delay the second filling of the GERD: “It is true that Egypt played a role in the recent Sudanese escalation, but it does not want to stir a complete military confrontation between them [Sudan and Ethiopia]. It only wants a military escalation to achieve a political solution, which is the delay of the second filling of the GERD until a final solution is reached, since filling the dam has negative repercussions on the flow of water to Egypt,” the official said.

Sudanese army repels missile attack launched by Ethiopia on Abou Toyour Mountain

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A military source told Sky News Arabia Monday that the Sudanese army repelled a missile attack launched by Ethiopia on Abou Toyour Mountain in the evening of Sunday.

The source stated that no injuries or casualties were recorded, and that the Sudanese army holds the right to respond.

In November, the Sudanese army spread its forces in Fashaqa border area after restoring lands that used to be cultivated by Ethiopian farmers since 1995.

Earlier this month, Sudan imposed an air ban on the border area after what it had described as a dangerous escalation. On January 13, an Ethiopian military jet infringed the airspace, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared warning of the consequences embodied in more tensions in the borders area.

The ministry urged the Ethiopian side not to repeat such hostile acts in the future for their negative impact on the future of bilateral relations and security and stability in the Horn of Africa.

The ministry had earlier declared that an assault against Sudanese villagers was carried out by Ethiopia’s Shafta gangs in the evening of Monday. Those were harvesting crops in Al Qaresha lying five kilometers away from the Ethiopian borders. The attack resulted in the killing of five women and a child. Also, two women disappeared.

Some Ethiopian groups used to cultivate lands in Sudan’s Fashqa region for decades, which was tolerated by overthrown leader Omar al-Bashir but is no longer accepted by the transitional government. In May, Ethiopian militias attacked a camp in the eastern city of al-Qadarif killing and wounding several Sudanese military personnel and civilians.

The Sudanese Armed Forces sent reinforcements to Al Fashqa after the attack that killed four and injured 20 military personnel who were patrolling the southern borders on December 15, as reported by Sky News Arabia.

The assault came two days after Sudanese Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok cut his visit to Addis Ababa returning to his homeland after a few hours instead of staying for two days. Some media reported that Hamdok offered mediation between the Ethiopian Federal Government and the Trigray People’s Liberation Front but his offer was turned down by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

It is noted that 50,000 out of 950,000 displaced Ethiopians fled to Sudan because of the fighting initiated by the Ethiopian federal government against the Tigray region.

Hamdok issued a press release declaring that a force was patrolling Abou Toyour Mountain on the Sudanese territory, and on its way back, “it was ambushed by Ethiopian militias and forces.”

Sudan and Ethiopia share borders of 1,600 kilometers, while the surface area of the disputed Al Fashaqa region is 250 square kilometers.

An Ethiopian delegation arrived in Khartoum on December 22 to discuss the border demarcation matter with the Sudanese side for two days within the framework of the High Joint Committee on Border Issues, as reported by Al Arabiyah.

The meeting is an activation of the committee, and takes place one day after local media reported that the Sudanese Armed Forces was advancing in Al Fashaqa border district occupied by Ethiopia.

Sudan wants its borders to match the description indicated in the 1902 Agreement signed between Ethiopian and Great Britain, which was occupying Sudan at the time.

Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt also have disagreements over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Sudan withdrew from the talks twice.

The capacity of the dam worth $4.6 billion is 74 billion cubic meters so that its filling would be detrimental to the water shares of Egypt (55.5 billion cubic meters), and Sudan (18.5 billion cubic meters). Ethiopia intends to fill 13.5 billion cubic meters in summer, and plans to build two other dams. It began the filling process in summer 2020 with five billion cubic meters.

Constructions in the Grand Renaissance Dam started on April 2, 2011 by the Italian construction and engineering company Salini Impergilo headquartered in Milan. The dam is located on the Blue Nile, and is expected to generate up to 6,000 megawatts of power.

(©Egypt Today)

The East African war escalates, Ethiopia accuses Sudan of occupying 9 camps

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NetEase| According to Ethiopian sources, Ethiopian ambassador to Sudan Ibtalal Amero accused the Sudanese army of occupying nine camps in Ethiopia. In Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, Amelo told representatives of the UN Truce International Organization and foreign ambassadors: “We are surprised by the Sudanese army’s attack on Ethiopian territory. Since November last year, the Sudanese army has occupied 9 camps in Ethiopia.”

While Ethiopian diplomats called on the Sudanese army to stop cross-border attacks and resolve the border issue with Ethiopia by peaceful means, the head of the Sudanese National Border Commission, General Moaz Ahmed Tango, denied that the Sudanese army “controls Ethiopia”. Territory. He said: “There is no Sudanese army on Ethiopian territory. They are all deployed in Sudan and they know the location of the border.”

At the same time, the Ethiopian army is deploying its “Armor-S1” air defense missile system to the border with Sudan. This happened against the background of the deterioration of relations between the two countries. The Ethiopian armed forces are gathering military forces in the border area with Sudan. The situation between the two countries has deteriorated due to another border dispute. The Sudanese military said that the Ethiopian Air Force of Ethiopia attacked its own targets. It is said that the attack by the Ethiopian government forces resulted in the death of civilians and the death of the Sudanese Defence Force.

The Ethiopian army is deploying reinforcements along the border with Sudan. In this case, Ethiopia will be given a special role for its air defense. Among other air defense missile equipment transferred to the border, the “Armor-S1” air defense missile and Russian radar system shipped from Russia to Ethiopia in 2019 were seen. With the help of Russian air defense missiles, the Ethiopian military intends to defend against air strikes by Sudanese fighters.

“The Ethiopian army organizes heavy weapons near the border with Sudan. Amhara has been pushing their prime minister into war. Internally against Tigray  and externally against Sudan. It seems that the end of the old empire is near!” The Sudanese side believes that the Ethiopian army is opening fire everywhere, but if the Ethiopian government forces go to war with Sudan, it will inevitably face the tragedy of total defeat.

The “Armor-S1” air defense missile performed well during the armed conflicts between Syria and Libya. The targets of the “Armor-S1” air defense missile include modern Turkish inspection and strike integrated drones. Considering the potential enemy of Ethiopia, the Sudanese Air Force uses outdated aircraft and helicopters, mainly Russian MiG-29 fighter jets and Chinese-made “Mountain Eagle” trainer attack aircraft. This modern air defense system is used in areas where conflicts may occur. The emergence of the Sudan Air Force greatly complicates the use of fighters.