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How Egypt is supporting Sudan in border conflict

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Al-Monitor — A delegation from the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, headed by Lt. Gen. Shamseldin al-Kabashi and Director of the General Intelligence Service Jamal Abdul Majeed, visited Cairo Jan. 14, where they met with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to discuss the latest developments on the border conflict with Ethiopia and the military operations led by the Sudanese army to liberate the territories from the armed Ethiopian militias.

The visit came as part of Sudan’s regional moves that are expected to include other visits to Arab countries, namely the Gulf, such as Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, to request “diplomatic and legal support,” according to a Jan. 14 statement by Sudanese Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din.

However, on Jan. 25, tensions escalated on the Sudanese-Ethiopian border when violent clashes with heavy weapons and artillery broke out in the Jabal Abu al-Toyour border area.

In December 2020, the Sudanese army deployed its soldiers on the border in al-Fashqa region to liberate Sudanese lands from groups affiliated with the Ethiopian militias that have been benefiting from the cultivation of hundreds of acres of fertile land since 1995.

A diplomatic source familiar with Egyptian-Sudanese ties told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “Egypt has been carefully observing the tension on the Sudanese borders since the beginning of the skirmishes because it is concerned with protecting peace and security in the African region, especially in the neighboring countries.”

He said, “Cairo has taken no recent action to support any of the conflicting parties, but Egypt welcomes Sudan’s request for support and assistance in its legal position to regain and liberate its lands.”

The source noted, “Egypt adopts policies that support peaceful solutions through dialogue and negotiation to restore peace and resolve all outstanding issues.”

He explained, “Restoring calm between Khartoum and Addis Ababa would be in Cairo’s interest — unlike what Ethiopia has been promoting in the media by throwing accusations against Egypt.”

Cairo has made no official comment on the border conflict between Khartoum and Addis Ababa since the beginning of the crisis, except in an strongly worded statement from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Dec. 31, 2020, in response to statements by Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti. The latter had touched on the Egyptian internal affairs by criticizing the human rights situation in Egypt. Cairo considered the statement a “blatant transgression,” accusing Ethiopia of pursuing “continuous hostile practices against its regional surroundings,” referring to the Ethiopian attacks on Sudanese territory.

Egypt and Sudan are both committed to the Treaty of Joint Defense and Economic Cooperation, under the umbrella of the Arab League, which stipulates in Article 2, “The Contracting States consider any [act of] armed aggression made against any one or more of them or their armed forces, to be directed against them all. Therefore, in accordance with the right of self-defense, individually and collectively, they undertake to go without delay to the aid of the State or States against which such an act of aggression is made, and immediately to take, individually and collectively, all steps available, including the use of armed force, to repel the aggression and restore security and peace.”

Maj. Gen. Khaled Okasha, a security expert and head of the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor, “Egypt is well aware of the sensitivity of the tripartite relationship between it and Sudan and Ethiopia, and interfering in this conflict will worsen the situation without resolving it.”

He noted, “Sudan is able to recover its lands through all legal, diplomatic and military means, and it does not need Egypt’s support. Egypt realizes that these are all recurring conflicts and are not of a level that threatens Egyptian national security.”

However, Okasha added, “The escalating tension between Sudan and Ethiopia over the lands in al-Fashqa region revealed the true positions of Ethiopia, which has long claimed to be a sister country of Sudan that protects its interests in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam [GERD] issue.”

In an unprecedented military cooperation between Egypt and Sudan, units from Egypt’s air force and Saiqa (Thunderbolt) commando forces carried out joint air maneuvers with Sudan, dubbed Nile Eagles-1, on Nov. 19, 2020. The maneuvers included a number of offensive and defensive sorties on targets, while the Saiqa forces carried out drills on combat search and rescue work.

Okasha stressed, “The Egyptian military maneuvers with Sudan are not an exceptional situation, but rather a restoration of normal relations between the two countries, which had been tense throughout the period of Islamic rule in Sudan.”

In a Jan. 25 interview with Al-Arabiya channel, Sudanese Minister of Defense Lt. Gen. Yassin Ibrahim Yassin linked the border dispute with Ethiopia to the GERD negotiations, noting that “the common factor in both cases is the Ethiopian delay.”

Speaking about the possibilities of Egyptian intervention to mediate between Sudan and Ethiopia to solve the border crisis, Mona Omar, a former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister, told Al-Monitor, “I rule out such a possibility, especially with Ethiopia’s intransigent positions with Egypt in the GERD negotiations and its lack of respect for the historical charters and agreements that define mechanisms for dealing with the Nile water.”

She said, “At the present time Egypt can offer to support Sudan by raising the [border] issue in international forums and providing legal support.”

Omar noted, “Egypt’s policy does not consist of working in secret or fueling conflict between two countries, especially since Cairo is well aware that should the Sudanese-Ethiopian tension no longer be limited to mere clashes, it would have negative effects and repercussions on security in the region.”

She added, “Despite the internal calls to resort to a military solution against Ethiopia in the GERD issue — which is a matter of life and death for Egypt — the Egyptian administration committed itself to peaceful dialogue and negotiation as a way to solve the crisis.”

Since the outbreak of the confrontations with Ethiopia on the eastern border of Sudan, Khartoum has taken more hard-line stances on the GERD issue, completely rejecting the Ethiopian positions during the negotiations rounds sponsored by the African Union (AU).

Sudanese government spokesman and Minister of Information Faisal Saleh said in a press statement Jan. 23, “Sudan will not accept the imposition of a fait accompli in the GERD [issue], and we have the means to respond to Ethiopia. AU mediation [in the GERD issue] in its old form is no longer useful.”

Egypt’s moves to support Sudan in its border conflict with Ethiopia come as part of a new era of cooperation and coordination between Cairo and Khartoum to stop any threats affecting the common interests and national security of the two countries, especially in the Nile water file.

Sudan calls on Ethiopia to close GERD deal

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Sudanese Minister of Culture and Information Faisal Saleh has expressed concern over the second filling of Ethiopia’s Great Renaissance Dam (GERD), Al-Arabiya news reported .

The dam cannot be brought into operation until Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa reach a binding agreement, he said. This is a legally confirmed document that will allow three parties to regulate the water level in the bed of the Blue Nile River.

Faisal Saleh expressed concern about Sudan amid Ethiopia’s unwavering commitment to begin the second filling of the dam in July this year, despite the lack of agreement.

“We do not agree with the imposition of a fait accompli. The Khartoum authorities are ready to give an appropriate rebuff in case of arbitrariness of Addis Ababa,” the head of the Ministry of Culture and Information said.

Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok met last week with the country’s GERD High Monitoring Committee, where he said it is unacceptable to risk the safety of the 20 million citizens whose lives depend on the Blue Nile.

Recall that in the summer of 2020, Ethiopia announced the successful filling of the Renaissance Dam (4.9 billion cubic meters) during the rainy season.

A few days later, Sudan recorded a decrease in the water level in the Blue Nile, coming from Ethiopia. This has sparked disputes between countries, including Egypt, lasting more than half a year.

The Sudanese-Ethiopian relations have been witnessing an escalating tension for weeks due to armed attacks on the borders of the two countries, which Khartoum says were carried out by Ethiopian militias backed by government forces on Sudanese territory.

On January 12, Sudan announced that Ethiopian forces launched an attack on the Al-Fashaqa area within the Sudanese borders in Gedaref State, killing 6 people, 5 women and a child.

In turn, Ethiopia accused the Sudanese forces of “seizing 9 camps” within the Ethiopian borders and “violating the agreement signed between the two countries in 1972 on border issues by invading Ethiopian territory.”

Last week, Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti accused Egypt of intensifying its destabilization efforts against Ethiopia and the volatile Horn of Africa region. “The Egyptian government is pushing Sudan to engage in a conflict with Ethiopia, in its bid to weaken both countries,” the official said.

Recently, an Egyptian official admitted Egypt’s concerted effort to delay the second filling of the GERD: “It is true that Egypt played a role in the recent Sudanese escalation, but it does not want to stir a complete military confrontation between them [Sudan and Ethiopia]. It only wants a military escalation to achieve a political solution, which is the delay of the second filling of the GERD until a final solution is reached, since filling the dam has negative repercussions on the flow of water to Egypt,” the official said.

‘Egypt working to destabilize Ethiopia, East Africa’ — Ethiopia

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Anadolu Agency | Ethiopian diplomat says Cairo trying to weaken Ethiopia and volatile Horn of Africa region

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — The Egyptian government has been stepping up its long-standing policy of destabilizing and weakening Ethiopia by “providing full support to anti-peace elements” and pitting neighbors against it, according to a top Ethiopian diplomat.

The official, who holds a high position in the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry and asked for anonymity, told Anadolu Agency that “Egypt has intensified its destabilization efforts against Ethiopia and the volatile Horn of Africa region.”

Ethiopia’s reformist administration, led by Nobel Laureate Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who took office in 2018, has faced multiple domestic and external security challenges.

Last November, Ahmed told parliament that since he became premier, Ethiopia had witnessed 114 ethnic and religious conflicts, resulting in the deaths of thousands and displacements of millions of people.

According to him, all those conflicts were manufactured, instigated, and led by Ethiopian armed and unarmed forces bent on thwarting his administration’s political, social, and economic reform agenda in order to trigger a regime change or failed state.

‘Conflict over dam’

The diplomat said that for more than half a century the Egyptian establishment has been providing financial, military, and diplomatic assistance to armed and unarmed Ethiopian forces in its bid to destabilize and weaken Ethiopia and thwart its ambition to utilize the resources of the Nile River.

Ethiopia has realized its Nile River utilization dreams by constructing the $5 billion Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is now 78% complete, he added.

Ethiopia hopes the stalled negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Addis Ababa over the dam will eventually result in a win-win solution for everyone.

However, despite strong opposition from Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia is planning to begin the second phase of filling this August. Early power generation is slated to start this January or February.

“It is in light of this development that Egypt has intensified its covert and overt anti-Ethiopian activities over the past couple of years,” he said.

‘Supporting Gumuz rebels’

The armed Gumuz militia has been unleashing brutal ethnic attacks on ethnic minorities in Ethiopia’s western Benishangul-Gumuz state, where the dam is located. Hundreds of civilians have been massacred and tens of thousands displaced.

According to the Ethiopian government, the sole aim of the Gumuz militia, which has been trying to block the main road leading to the dam, is to trigger a civil war in the region and beyond and eventually delay or thwart the dam’s construction.

“We have credible intelligence that Egypt has been assisting the Gumuz militia,” the diplomat said. “Egyptian security agents have been in touch with the leaders of the rebel group, and they are working on enhancing their support.”

Furthermore, the official said, the Egyptians are also trying to find an operational base for Gumuz as well as the militarily defeated and outlawed Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which they had supported, and other groups.

“It’s worth saying that recently Egypt solicited the government of South Sudan to provide a military base for the groups,” he said. “But the South Sudanese authorities, who highly value our friendly relations, rebuffed the request in no uncertain terms.”

‘Pitting Sudan against Ethiopia’

Sudan and Ethiopia have maintained peaceful relations for decades despite a long-standing border dispute over the agricultural area known as al-Fashaqa, which is adjacent to Ethiopia’s northwest Amhara region.

But last November, while the Ethiopian army was busy battling TPLF forces, the Sudanese army took control of the contested area.

Weeks after the move, Sudanese officials declared that the Sudanese army had managed to regain about 90% of the al-Fashaqa area and demanded that the Ethiopian army vacate the remaining two localities.

The Ethiopian government has sought a diplomatic solution to the dispute and accused the Sudanese army of entering deep into Ethiopian territory, killing and evicting farmers and looting their properties.

Last week, Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti accused Sudan of deploying its army further into the contested region and warned that Ethiopia’s “peaceful approach to the dispute has limits.”

Tensions remain high between the two countries, with thousands of heavily armed troops amassed along the disputed areas.

“The Egyptian government is pushing Sudan to engage in a conflict with Ethiopia, in its bid to weaken both countries,” the official said. “The situation will give Egypt more leverage to further infiltrate the Sudanese army and security apparatus.”

He added: “If the standoff turns into a full-blown conflict, Sudan and Ethiopia will endure collateral damage, while Egypt will benefit.”

The problem was caused and exacerbated by some military officials who fell into Egypt’s plot, he added.

‘Adding fuel to Somalia fire’

Cairo has been actively seeking a presence in Somalia, a troubled Horn of Africa country which for decades has struggled to form a viable state and establish security.

“Throughout last year, Egypt tried to befriend the federal government of Somalia by promising military aid,” said the official. But, he added: “The Somali authorities recognized Egypt’s sinister motives and refused the military assistance.”

According to the diplomat, after the Somali federal government refused the offer, Egypt turned to Somaliland, a self-declared “country” that is part of Somalia and has been at loggerheads with the federal government. Last July, Cairo asked officials in Hargeisa, the Somaliland “capital,” to allow them to set up a military base.

“The Egyptians very well know the strained relations between Mogadishu and Hargeisa could turn into a military confrontation at any time,” the diplomat stressed. “They have been trying to add fuel to the Somalia fire.”

He continued: “The misguided self-centric Egyptian policy has been pushing the volatile Horn of Africa to further become a region of endless wars and destructions.”

‘Waning Egyptian influence’

According to the official, Egypt’s policy of trying to gain ground in the Horn of Africa is meant to get back the influence it has lost in the Middle East.

For decades, Egypt positioned itself as a peace broker in the Middle East conflict and managed to garner diplomatic, financial, and military support from the Western world. However, the rise of Gulf countries and other friends of the Arab world helped shrink Egyptian influence in the region.

“Egypt is trying to gain influence in our region. However, the region has demonstrated its will and capability to deal with its own problems and does not need Egypt to meddle in its affairs,” he concluded.

Egypt may attack Ethiopia by force, all because of a dam

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Tencent QQ | Negotiations between the three African countries broke down, Egypt may attack Ethiopia by force, all because of a dam

What is the most important thing in the world? Except for air, it is water. People can survive without eating for seven days, but if they don’t drink water for three days, they may be thirst to death. Wars that erupt because of water resources are not uncommon in human history, and new examples that may occur now are in Africa. A piece of news came out a few days ago that the tripartite negotiations among the three African countries of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have broken down because of Ethiopia’s reconstruction of the dam, and the waves of armed settlement of disputes are rising in the Egyptian media. According to local media reports, a large number of Egyptian military personnel have already begun to prepare, and the high level of the Egyptian military has also announced that the option of resolving disputes by force is not ruled out in the future.

The construction of the dam in Ethiopia, the entire project, has been controversial. This dam built on the Nile River is said to be related to the problems of three countries. This is because as we all know, Africa is already very short of water, and whoever has the water source has the great initiative. Previously, because Egypt itself fell into turmoil during the Arab Spring, and Sudan had no time to take care of it due to the civil war, Ethiopia found an opportunity. The project was formally approved by the late Ethiopian Meles in 2011. Once this hydropower station with a generating capacity of 6 million kilowatts is completed, it will be a huge boost to Ethiopia’s industrial development and can smoothly solve the problem of power shortage in Ethiopia. But doing so will seriously affect the water use problems of the other two countries, Sudan and Egypt.

Sudan and Egypt also know it well. After the domestic situation stabilized, these two countries also put forward their opinions to Ethiopia. After all, the water resources of the Nile River are limited. The three countries are also racking their brains in order to distribute water resources. Everyone wants to win more for themselves. This is understandable, but Ethiopia has not had the last laugh lately. In the beginning, Ethiopia took advantage of the civil strife in the other two countries to build the dam. Now Ethiopia is also experiencing a crisis of civil war. The two neighboring countries have not hesitated to retaliate against Ethiopia, taking advantage of the fire. The issue of Filling Dam has been solved. And now it is catching up with the critical moment of the second impoundment of the dam. For Egypt, it has reached the point of threatening their lifeline.

In this regard, there have been some reports from the Egyptian military, and they will not rule out the use of force. This includes directly attacking the dam itself. But doing so violates the UN’s laws of war. After all, an attack on a hydroelectric power station requires an international court. However, some people in Egypt have suggested that instead of attacking the dam itself, just attacking a few nearby power stations can disable the dam’s function. As for Sudan’s involvement in Ethiopia’s civil war affairs, there are rumors that Sudanese militia guerrillas have been discovered in the Tigray area of ​​Ethiopia, which has made the local chaotic war even more unbearable.

Now that wars have spread around the dam, whether new wars can break out depends entirely on whether the three local countries have the patience to continue the talks. Some people believe that the key lies in whether the three parties can reach an agreement in the next three months. Otherwise, when water resources are scarce in the dry season, the three countries will really fight for water.

Is Egypt behind Sudanese escalation on border with Ethiopia

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Source: Al-Monitor | Khalid Hassan

With the intensifying border conflict between Sudan and Ethiopia and the success of the Sudanese army in controlling the border areas where Ethiopian farmers have been living for decades, Ethiopia has been hurling accusations of a third party planning, funding and executing the recent confrontations on the border between the two countries.

Sudan’s Sovereignty Council Chairman Abdul Fattah Burhan said at a Jan. 16 press conference that deployment of Sudanese troops on the border with Ethiopia and the army’s control of the border areas were driven by domestic willingness, rather than foreign incitement. He denied the presence of any party pitting Sudan against Ethiopia.

Burhan’s comments came in response to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s statement on Dec. 24 claiming that several parties, which he did not name, seek to undermine the relations between Ethiopia and Sudan and that these parties — in reference to Egypt — plotted, funded and executed the recent border confrontations between the two countries.

The Sudanese-Ethiopian border has been witnessing in the past weeks unprecedented escalation between the Sudanese army and its Ethiopian counterpart over the disputed al-Faqsha border region.

On Jan. 13, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that a military Ethiopian aircraft entered Sudanese airspace, warning that such a move could have serious repercussions.

On Jan. 12, Sudan announced that al-Liya and Koli areas in al-Fashqa locality in western Sudan suffered an armed aggression from Ethiopian militias, killing five women and a child.

On Jan. 11, the Ethiopian military aircraft executed its first air sorties on the border areas in the Amhara region near eastern Sundus in the eastern Sudanese Qallabat locality.

The latest Ethiopian escalation comes after Sudanese troops launched a military attack on the border area and took control of al-Faqsha region on Dec. 31. In a Jan. 12 statement, Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Dina Mufti, accused Sudan of infiltrating into Ethiopian territories.

In light of the escalating conflict between the two countries, a high-ranking Sudanese convoy headed to Egypt Jan. 14 in an urgent visit and met with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. They discussed the border developments between Sudan and Ethiopia.

Directly after the meeting, Sudan announced Jan. 14 a ban on civil aviation and overflights in the airspace of the Gedaref state on the border with Ethiopia, thus prompting questions about the implication of Cairo in the crisis and whether it is using Sudan to pressure Ethiopia in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis.

Ethiopian writer specializing in Ethiopian affairs Noureddin Abda told Al-Monitor that Sudan has been leaning toward escalation as of late. Its intervention to control the border area, its strict stances and withdrawal from the latest negotiations on the GERD, and its accusation of Ethiopia of being stubborn all prove this. He said that Sudan has adopted a completely different strategy in its relations with Ethiopia lately.

On Nov. 18, Sudan announced its withdrawal from the GERD negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

On Jan. 11, the Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it would resort to other options if the African Union (AU) does not play a greater role in the GERD talks.

Abda noted, “The Egyptian role has been clear since the onset of the [border] crisis, when Egypt announced its full support for Sudan, which was followed by unprecedented Sudanese escalation on the borders through military mobilization and Burhan’s repeated visits to the borderline and his refusal of a truce.”

On Jan. 2, Sisi expressed in a phone call with Burhan his country’s complete support for Sudan in various fields, in light of the tight relations between the national security of both Egypt and Sudan.

On Jan. 13, Burhan and senior army commanders headed to the border area with Ethiopia where they stressed the ability of the armed forces to protect the land and maintain the country’s security.

Shifaa Afari, a writer and analyst specialized in African affairs, told Al-Monitor that Ethiopia is in a critical state and is avoiding escalation. For that reason, it is seeking a truce as it would be the biggest loser in the war. He said, “Ethiopia is a disintegrated state, especially following the Tigray war, and any escalation would negatively impact its situation.”

On Nov. 5, Ethiopia waged a military operation on the Tigray region in the north of the country to regain control of it.

On Dec. 24, Ahmed said that his government was intent on halting disputes and stopping clashes between the Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front for good on the borders.

Afari believes that Egypt will directly intervene if an all-out military confrontation breaks out between Ethiopia and Sudan.

Samir Ghattas, head of the Middle East Forum for Strategic Studies, argued that Egypt does not want to show its support for Sudan publicly. He noted that Egypt will back Sudan militarily, economically and politically, but without being in the spotlight, in an attempt to garner Sudanese support to pressure Ethiopia in the GERD issue.

“Egypt is well aware that Sudan is key for the course of negotiations, given the Ethiopian obstinacy. Therefore it has sought to tighten its military and political ties with Sudan and succeeded,” he said.

On Nov. 1, official spokesperson for the Egyptian army Tamer al-Rifai said that the commanders of the Egyptian and Sudanese armies who met in Khartoum agreed to boost cooperation in the fields of training, exchange of expertise and border security.

On Nov. 14, the Egyptian army launched joint military exercises between Egypt and Sudan, the first such drills between Egyptian and Sudanese special air forces.

On Nov. 20, Egypt’s National Organization for Military Production signed a memorandum of understanding with Sudan’s Military Industry Corporation to boost cooperation across all fields of military production.

Ghattas concluded, “It is true that Egypt played a role in the recent Sudanese escalation, but it does not want to stir a complete military confrontation between them [Sudan and Ethiopia]. It only wants a military escalation to achieve a political solution, which is the delay of the second filling of the GERD until a final solution is reached, since filling the dam has negative repercussions on the flow of water to Egypt.”

On Aug. 20, 2020, Ahmed said that the second phase of filling the GERD’s reservoir would start in August and that Ethiopia will not wait until the negotiations conclude to begin the filling operation. Around 18.4 billion cubic meters are expected to be filled, he added

Ghattas expects Ethiopia to cave in to Egyptian and Sudanese pressure and to delay filling the dam until the negotiations are concluded, especially since Ahmed does not want to open new fronts with the internal elections just around the corner.

On Dec. 25, the Electoral Council in Ethiopia announced its plan to organize parliamentary elections June 5.

Britain understands Sudan’s position on Ethiopia dam negotiations, says ambassador

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MEMO | The UK Ambassador to Sudan, Irfan Siddiq, said on Tuesday that his country understands Sudan’s position on the negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Anadolu News Agency reported.

Mr. Siddiq added during a meeting in Khartoum with the Sudanese Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources, Dr Yasir Mohamed, that London would support the dam negotiations until Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt reach a satisfactory agreement, the Sudanese Irrigation Ministry said in a statement.

Last week, the Sudanese Foreign Minister, Omar Qamar al-Din announced that his country had submitted a list of conditions to the African Union before it returned to meaningful negotiations over the Renaissance Dam, noting that Khartoum was considering alternative options, which he did not clarify.

On 10 January, the Sudanese News Agency reported that the meeting of ministers of foreign affairs and irrigation of Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia have failed to reach an acceptable formula to continue negotiations on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

For nine years, the three countries have been locked in stalled negotiations over the dam.

Without U.S. Aid, Where Would Egypt Turn?

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Terminating U.S. aid to Cairo would jeopardize the long-standing U.S.-Egyptian relationship and regional stability for years to come.

As a candidate, Joe Biden issued a stern warning to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, pledging “no more blank checks for Trump’s favorite dictator.” Biden and his team have signaled they would limit or in some cases halt support for countries based on their human rights records, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Biden’s team has threatened to condition the $1.5 annual bilateral aid the United States has provided Egypt since 1946. Following the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, which was signed subsequent to the Camp David Accords in 1979, U.S. military and economic assistance to Cairo has increased significantly. Every U.S. administration has justified the continuation of aid to Cairo as necessary for sustaining regional stability, safeguarding U.S. interests, and prolonging cooperation with the Egyptian military.

Limiting U.S. aid to Cairo would jeopardize the long-standing U.S.-Egyptian relationship for years to come. At the same time, denunciations over El-Sisi’s human rights record are legitimate. During his presidency, El-Sisi has unjustly imprisoned human rights defenders, journalists and activists in Egypt, reversing freedoms achieved in the 2011 Arab Spring uprising. However, terminating dialogue with Cairo would be harmful to regional security, as Egypt would lean on other human rights abusers for support instead.

El-Sisi took this threat seriously and in recent months began veering Egypt away from the U.S. and towards Western adversaries—including China. On August 5, Egypt agreed to let China establish a Mediterranean container terminal in Abu Qir, extending China’s reach and ability to bolster its One Belt One Road initiative in the Middle East. El-Sisi’s outreach to China poses severe implications for U.S. policy as it demonstrates Egypt’s willingness to work with Western adversaries to ensure its economic and military security.

Biden’s Middle East team must also consider the importance of sustained Israeli-Egyptian cooperation while it contemplates potential Egypt policy agendas. Four decades of peace between Israel and Egypt have been a highly important asset to the region. Since both countries signed the 1979 peace accord, Egypt has played an essential role in safeguarding Israel’s security on its western border with Gaza, which has been controlled by Hamas since 2007. Cairo and Tel Aviv’s shared disdain for the de facto governing authority in Gaza has contributed to their common ground. Egyptian and Israeli forces have worked together to counter the Sinai insurgency, an ongoing ISIS affiliated uprising on the peninsula. If the United States terminates supporting Egypt’s collaborative counter-terror efforts through military technology transfers and monetary aid, the Cairo-Tel Aviv relationship will be tested.

In addition to the Israel-Egypt relationship, cooperation between the United States and Egypt significantly cuts across multiple spheres, including security, counterterrorism, and intelligence. Both the Obama and Trump administrations defended continual aid to Egypt as crucial for regional stability. In 2013 the Obama administration partially halted its supply of military equipment to Egypt following the coup d’état that brought President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to power. However, these limitations were lifted two years later in the “name of U.S. national security,” according to Obama administration officials. The equipment freeze was reversed since Egypt’s counter-terrorism efforts and anti-ISIS operations in the Sinai region and Libya were prioritized.

French President Emmanuel Macron recently faced pressure to limit and condition the sale of weapons to Egypt on the basis of human rights violations. However, Macron chose a different course than what Biden reportedly is planning. During a joint news conference in Paris with Egyptian President El-Sisi on December 7, Macron announced France would not abide by this strategy as it would be a detriment to Cairo’s ability to counter terrorism in the region. Macron stated he “would not condition matters of defense and economic cooperation on these disagreements (over human rights)…it is more effective to have a policy of demanding dialogue than a boycott which would only reduce the effectiveness of one our partners in the fight against terrorism.”

Terminating dialogue with Egypt will not lead to the cessation of human rights violations. In order to sustain its counter-terror capabilities and economic security, El-Sisi will unquestionably look to other authoritarian human rights abusers, including China and Russia, as replacements for support. The United States often has to make difficult national security decisions to cooperate with states with poor human rights records. Instead of boycotting Cairo and ultimately pushing them toward unsavory new partnerships, the U.S. could take up a two-track approach to Egypt, prioritizing the advancement of security issues while simultaneously pushing for improvements in human rights.

Maya Carlin is an Analyst with the Center for Security Policy located in Washington DC. She is a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel, where she completed her MA in Counter-terrorism and Homeland Security.

Egypt Deploys its Most Advanced Fighters to Sudan For Joint Exercises Amid Political Uncertainty

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Source: Military Watch Magazine

The Egyptian Air Force has deployed a contingent of its most capable fighter aircraft, the MiG-29M, to neighbouring Sudan for the Protectors of the Nile 2020 military exercises. This follows a Western-backed coup in Khartoum in 2019 which saw the administration of longstanding Western adversary Omar Al Bashir toppled, with Sudan’s political future still uncertain as nationalist, pro-Western, Islamist and other factions continue to vie for influence. The MiG-29M deployments has been met with a number of different interpretations, including a sign of support for the Sudanese Military amid growing instability internally. The Sudanese Air Force itself operates the MiG-29 as its primary frontline fighter, albeit the older but still relatively modern MiG-29SE variant, which until 2015 had a significant qualitative edge over anything in the Egyptian fleet due largely to its use of active radar guided R-77 missiles. Egypt itself was able to acquire the R-77 from 2015 alongside its MiG-29M jets – providing the most advanced air to air missile in both fleets and Egypt’s only active radar guided missile with a range exceeding 100km.

Sudanese Air Force MiG-29 Fighters Escort Su-24M Strike Fighter | Military Watch Magazine

 

Interoperability between Egyptian and Sudanese air units is expected to be high, and could improve considerably as the two carry out more joint exercises. With Cairo aligning itself closely with Russian since the overthrow of its Western backed Islamist government in 2013, and opposing Western designs in both Syria and Libya, greater Egyptian involvement in Sudan has the potential to tip the balance against of Western interests in the country, reversing many of the gains made since the coup against the Bashir government. While relations between the two East African states have historically been far from positive, with territorial disputes surrounding the Egyptian-held Hala’ib triangle area ongoing, the emergence of common perceived threats to both countries could well lead to the forging of a robust partnership.