Tag Archive for: Crisis in Ethiopia

Pterosaur Rainbow drones (UAV) are put into battle, attacking Ethiopian rebels at night, killing 500 people on the spot

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UAV Network 2020-11-30 | The Asian-African conflict that was just quelled a while ago finally ended with Azerbaijan’s victory. In this war, drones as a new type of military weapons showed up on the battlefield, and soon won the world’s Concerned, some experts even predict that in future wars, drones will replace armed helicopters and become the new darling on the battlefield. This is true when used in the recent conflict between Ethiopia and the “rebels”.

Satellite data provided by a US space company recently showed that buildings in areas where Ethiopia was engaged in combat with rebels were suspected of being subjected to a wide range of precision-guided strikes, and the rebels who used buildings as shelters suffered a devastating blow. In this attack, at least 500 rebels were wiped out on the spot. The Ethiopian government forces had absolute initiative at the beginning of the battle. Such a precise air strike was definitely not done by the Su-27 of the Ethiopian Air Force. It was the Ethiopian Air Force that used the killer weapon. Judging from the current situation in Ethiopia, Ethiopia and the UAE Air Force stationed in Eritrea both use this killer weapon: it is possible to armed drones. The Ethiopian side uses the Rainbow 4 weapon. The man-machine, and the UAE Air Force, is likely to use the Pterosaur 2 armed drone.

Read More China Has Been Spying On The African Union Headquarters

Both of these drones are excellent products manufactured in China, and have been exported to many countries and regions in the world. The Pterosaur 2 was developed by my country’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. The aerodynamic layout of the Pterosaur 2 and the previous Pterosaur domestic UAV is generally similar, but the size of the Pterosaur 2 is almost a circle larger than the Pterosaur, so Compared with the pterosaur, the descendant pterosaur 2 has a significant improvement over the pterosaur in terms of bomb load and maximum range. In the seven years since it was put on the market, the Pterosaur 2 has been successfully equipped in many countries, and it has achieved normalized applications. It has also performed well in actual combat. The Rainbow 4 UAV is my country’s “Rainbow” series UAV Representative products in China are also exported to the Middle East and Europe.

Read More The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels

And it shines in the struggle against the armed elements. Both types of drones represent the advanced level of Chinese drones. Compared with UAVs produced in the United States, U.S.-made UAVs have always been popular in the international arms market before China’s UAV momentum has risen, but since Chinese UAVs entered the international market many countries were immediately attracted by the ultra-high cost performance of our drones. At the same time, our drones are more durable than American drones, easy to maintain, which has successfully shaken the US drones in the international market. Dominance.

In this conflict, Ethiopia once again used Chinese domestic drones. Obviously, after the conflict in the Tigray region, the use of drones in modern warfare has also been attracted by countries all over the world and started imitation.

The Ethiopian army’s offensive is fierce, and the Russian observers are very emotional: so many advanced Eastern weapons

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NetEase | According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on January 21, the Ethiopian army’s offensive was very fierce. Russian observers were very impressed by the fact that so many advanced Eastern weapons appeared.

Ethiopia has been facing internal and external troubles recently. Since November last year, the domestic situation in Ethiopia has been escalating. The conflict between the previous ruling department and the current one has intensified, and even military means have been used. Before the current leader Abiy came to power, the core faction of the Egyptian side was the Tigray Front, but after Abiy came to power, the front was excluded, and the conflict between the two sides escalated. Dissatisfied with Abi’s management, Tigray even held a local election in September last year. Recently, the military conflicts between the two sides have been escalating. According to the announcement by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, the military has killed many senior Tigray officials. Among them was the former Minister of Foreign Affairs who refused to surrender and was killed in fighting that broke out in the Tigray region. With the expansion of the Ethiopian civil war, the exchange of fire between Ethiopia and the Sudanese army has gradually become fierce, and Sudan took this opportunity to launch an attack on Ethiopia. In response, the Ethiopian army began to strengthen its deployment on the border and began to take action. Not long ago, a large number of elite Ethiopian troops launched an overnight attack and snatched a missile from the Tigray rebels. The battle once attracted many onlookers.

Related sources said that the recent offensive by the Ethiopian army has been very fierce, and even a large number of weapons from the east have been deployed. The Ethiopian army even dispatched S300 air defense missiles and armored S1 air defense missile systems from Russia. Ethiopia also has many of the 56-type submachine guns, 63-type assault rifles, 40 rockets, pterosaur drones, M20 tactical ballistic missiles and A200 long-range rockets produced by our country.

In particular, the M20 tactical ballistic missile and the A200 long-range rocket have become the focus of contention between Ethiopia and the rebels. The M20 ballistic missile is a short-range ballistic missile developed by the Chinese Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. This type of missile adopts an integrated design of vehicle transportation, erection and launch, a double cone aerodynamic shape, and an X-shaped tail rudder. The missile is powered by a single-stage solid propellant rocket engine, satellite guidance and inertial navigation, and full-range guidance, with high guidance accuracy and strong penetration capability. The missile has a length of 7.8 meters, a diameter of 0.75 meters, a take-off weight of 4,010 kilograms, and a warhead weight of 480 kilograms. The rocket model of the A200 system developed by China is A20011, with a length of 7.2 meters, a diameter of 300 mm, and a mass of about 840 kg. The maximum range has been further increased to 200 kilometers. The rocket uses advanced GPS and INS composite guidance, head-body separation technology, and achieves maneuvering flight capabilities. The accuracy of the rocket has been greatly improved. The CEP is less than when the entire blasting warhead equivalent to 150 kg of TNT is used. At 30 meters, the CEP of the warhead of the armor-piercing submunition with 390 rounds of bullets is also less than 45 meters, which has reached the level of mainstream short-range ballistic missiles.

The Russian observers were very emotional. They did not expect Ethiopia, an unheard-of African country, to possess weapons such as high-precision tactical ballistic missiles. Especially Ethiopia has so many advanced Eastern weapons, no wonder it is so violent. And we can see the popularity of these advanced Eastern weapons.

The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels

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UAV Network | Tencent QQ | Ethiopia: the price is too good

According to a report by TASS News Agency on December 3, the UAV deployed by the UAE in Eritrea recently participated in the Ethiopian civil war and achieved “impressive” results. Under the continuous bombing of drones, the Tigray People’s Army kept retreating, and there was no way to deal with it. The rebels could no longer hold it, and began to surrender. On December 1, the Ethiopian government stated that senior officials of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had surrendered to the Ethiopian army. The official who surrendered was Kerya Ibrahim, one of the nine important leaders of the TPLF.

The price of a U.S.-made Predator drone is about US$5 million, and the price of an American Reaper drone is about US$15 million. In contrast, the cost of a Chinese-made pterosaur drone is only about $1 million. But the performance of the Pterosaur UAV is not much different from that of the U.S. Predator. The Pterosaur UAV can also realize the integration of investigation and fighting, and has many actual combat records. The difference between the Pterosaur UAV and the Predator is mainly due to the relatively weak engine performance, which leads to the difference in the maximum ammunition capacity of the Pterosaur and the Predator. But if the price factor is taken into account, this may not be a problem at all. In addition, there are many restrictions on the purchase of U.S. military drones, but there are no more restrictions on the purchase of pterosaur drones. You can buy your own equipment and you can use it whatever you want.

In the civil war in Ethiopia, the pterosaur drones undertook a 24-hour non-stop bombing mission, which destroyed the rebels to life. In fact, the conflict between Ethiopia and Tigray was not a day or two; the government forces did not quickly win the victory over the rebels. The biggest difference was that there was no help from drones. The Ethiopian army has a lot of advanced equipment, including AR-2 rockets, etc., but it cannot fully utilize the advantages of these equipment. Tigray armed with rockets in hand and the government army are very impressive. But when the pterosaur drones joined, the situation changed quickly. Death was hovering over the heads of the rebels for 24 hours, and any heavy weapons that appeared would be quickly attacked. The drones made the rebels feel powerless, and the destruction of the period was terrible.

The Ethiopian military believes that these Pterosaur drones are too valuable. In fact, this batch of UAVs is not Ethiopian, it is likely to be the UAE. The UAE built military bases in the area in 2015 and deployed multiple pterosaur UAVs to fight against Husai. The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels. After the Ethiopian army has seen the power of the pterosaur drone, it is believed that it will also have the idea of ​​buying it. After all, it can have the ability to attack the ground without spending a lot of money, which is impossible for manned fighters. UAVs are very attractive to Ethiopia.

In recent years, drones have appeared on the battlefield more and more and have played a very important role. Both the TB-2 UAV and the Pterosaur UAV participated in the battlefield in Libya. The TB-2 UAV successfully destroyed multiple armored S air defense systems. The Pterosaur UAV pressed the GNA army before the Turkish army entered the battle. In the Naka conflict, Azerbaijan used Turkish TB-2 UAVs to destroy several Russian-made Sam-8 air defense systems, S300 air defense systems, and a large number of T72 tanks, which played an important role in winning the war. In the civil war in Ethiopia, drones once again played an important role. Many practical examples show that for small countries, drones may be more useful than manned fighters.

Ethiopias military offensive in Tigray accompanied by atrocities and internal repression

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Source: IPIS Research Briefing | Arms Trade Bulletin November – December 2020

On 4 November 2020 the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) launched a military offensive against the Tigray regional government. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dubbed it a “law enforcement operation” reportedly “to restore the rule of law and the constitutional order”. The military intervention by the ENDF was a retaliation for an alleged surprise attack by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), in the early morning of November 4, against the ENDF’s Northern Command bases in Tigray. The federal government declared a six-month state of emergency in Tigray, blocking all internet, mobile and landline communications, claiming “illegal and violent activities” were threatening the country’s sovereignty.

Internal Repression and Possible War Crimes

Meanwhile the Ethiopian News Agency announced that the House of People’s Representatives had lifted the immunity of 39 members of the House, including the President of Tigray Regional State. On 7 November police arrested two journalists. One of the editors of the Addis Standard was accused of “attempts to dismantle the constitution through violence,” and “outrage against the constitution”, while journalist Bekalu Alamirew of online Awlo Media was accused of “interviewing Tigray region officials, producing reports undermining the government, producing articles in order to defame the government and undermine its credibility in collaboration with foreign forces, producing articles photographs aimed at inciting inter-communal violence, and inciting a civil war”. Several days later the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reported the arrest of 4 more journalists.

In the days that followed calls for dialogue were dismissed by the Prime Minister. Air strikes continued to hit Tigray. Reports of possible war crimes emerged from the region. One of which took place in Mai Kadra. Two alternative accounts have been presented for the Mai Kadra massacre. One blamed a local militia linked to the TPLF, others blame Amhara militia with assistance from the ENDF. The Ethiopian army and the regional Amhara “Fano” militia have allegedly killed civilians and looted the hospital, banks, businesses, supermarkets and private houses while reportedly taking control of Humera. Tens of thousands Tigrayans fled to Sudan. The Ethiopian army chief of staff alleged that the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), who is Tigrayan and a member of the TPLF, had attempted to obtain weapons for the TPLF. This strongly denied by the WHO Director-General.

An internal U.N. security report seen by Reuters alleged that Ethiopian police visited a World Food Programme office in Amhara region to request a list of ethnic Tigrayan staff. Ethnic profiling of Tigrayans seems to have begun before the recent conflict. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said it was “gravely concerned” at reports of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans, “most notably manifested in forced leave from work and in stopping people from travelling overseas including on work missions, for medical treatment or studies”. According to William Davison, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, “the ethnic profiling demonstrates that despite the government’s stated intention to target only the TPLF leadership, this conflict is also having a much broader negative impact on Tigrayans outside of Tigray”.

The Tigrayan regional government accused Eritrea of attacking Tigray’s northern border. This was strongly denied by both the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments. But when Hitsats Refugee Camp was captured by troops fighting for the Ethiopian government on 21 November, witnesses claimed that the armed men who entered the camp were Eritrean. The New York Times was told by aid workers that the Eritrean soldiers looted aid materials and vehicles, and burnt crops. Meanwhile multiple witnesses in Humera had told AFP that during the battle for Humera they witnessed mortar bombs coming from the direction of Eritrea. In December the U.S. government cited satellite images, intercepted communications and anecdotal reports from Tigray region as evidence of Eritrean involvement.

“There Will Be No Mercy”

On 22 November the Ethiopian forces had reached Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. Earlier the ENDF warned Mekelle’s 500,000 residents that the army would “encircle” the city and attack it with artillery fire. “There will be no mercy,” a spokesman reportedly said. On 28 November PM Abiy Ahmed announced the fall of Mekelle.

On 8 December the Ethiopian government admitted that federal troops had fired at and detained United Nations workers, proclaiming it did not need a “baby-sitter”. In Geneva U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet reported that her office had received substantiated reports of human rights violations: “We have corroborated information of gross human rights violations and abuses – including indiscriminate attacks against civilians and civilian objects, looting, abductions and sexual violence against women and girls. There are reports of forced recruitment of Tigrayan youth to fight against their own communities”.

Meanwhile the Tigray regional state interim administration, installed on 7 November by the House of Federation of Ethiopia, cautioned residents of Mekelle to hand over their firearms to federal forces until December 15. It was claimed that there would be a door-to-door search and whoever was found with firearms would be held accountable. Eritrean troops in Mariam Dengelat reportedly killed 37 civilians. Ethiopian ENDF soldiers reportedly shot at unarmed civilians, and looting by Amhara militia was reported.

The UNHCR has reported the displacement of millions. Tension along the Sudan-Ethiopia border has risen due to clashes between Sudanese and Ethiopian forces.

Prelude

Ethiopia is a federation of regional ethnic states, and constitutionally large autonomy is granted to the regions. Until 2018 all regional governments were linked directly or indirectly to the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), an alliance of four regional parties [the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) and the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP)], which used to govern Ethiopia. The TPLF was the dominant force until being displaced by an alliance of the two largest Ethiopian ethnicities, the Oromo and the Amhara.

Shortly after becoming Prime Minister in April 2018 Abiy Ahmed had begun to accuse the TPLF of trying to destabilise the country. In the media the TPLF were scapegoated for all the wrongs in the country. Which led to complaints from Tigrayans that they are persecuted in a crackdown on corruption and past abuses. “It has become fashionable to blame TPLF for everything that goes wrong in the country,” said a TPLF spokesperson. In November 2019 three of the four regional parties under direction of Abiy, with the exception of the TPLF, merged into a single national party – the Prosperity Party. The 2020 elections were postponed by the Ethiopian government, due to covid-19. The TPLF saw this as a means for the PM to hold on to power, and declared to hold elections anyway. The Ethiopian government ruled the Tigray government was unlawful and in return Tigray said it no longer recognised Abiy’s administration.

According to the United Nations Comtrade database the major exporters of armaments to Ethiopia in the last decade have been Slovakia, Israel, India, Sudan and Russia.

Exports arms and ammunition to Ethiopia 2010-2019

Country

Value (usd)

Description

India

3.9 million

Various munitions

Israel

4.8 million

Civilian firearms, various munitions

Russia

22.4 million

Various munitions

Slovakia

8.4 million

Armoured vehicles, various munitions

Sudan

4.5 million

Military weapons, various munitions

Source: Comtrade HS 87.10 & HS 93

The United Nations Register of Conventional Arms adds Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Ukraine to that list. In August 2020 trade publication Janes published that Turkish armoured vehicles worth USD20.7 million had been offloaded in Djibouti with likely end destination Ethiopia.

United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, exports to Ethiopia 2010-2019

Year

Exporter

Item

Quantity
2010 Russia Attack Helicopter

8
2012 Ukraine Main battle tank (T-72)

99
2012 Bulgaria Large calibre artillery system (122mm howitzer)

64
2012 Czech Rep. Large calibre artillery system

64
2013 Bulgaria Combat aircraft (MiG-23)

12
2013 Hungary Attack Helicopter (Mi-24)

12
2019 Czech Rep. Small arms

7,742

Peter Danssaert

Further Reading

The secret war in Tigray, Ethiopia Insight, 23 December 2020.

Did Ethiopia’s attack on Tigray violate international laws?, The Conversation, 9 December 2020.

Instant Non-international Armed Conflict? Classifying the situation in Northern Ethiopia under IHL, Armed Groups and International Law, 9 December 2020.

Five reasons why Ethiopia ended up at war, Ethiopia Insight, 1 December 2020.

Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis: Escalating Violence and Mass Displacement Threaten Ethiopian and Regional Security, Just Security, 25 November 2020.

Teflon TPLF, Ethiopia Insight, 12 December 2019.

The Republic of Tigray?, Ethiopia Insight, 28 September 2019.

Is Tigray really a drop in the bucket for Abiy’s administration?, Ethiopia Insight, 17 January 2019.

Silencing of guns in Africa remains a pipe dream

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IOL | The African Union set itself a goal of silencing guns on the continent by 2020 but has failed to achieve that goal dismally. Guns are still blazing in the DRC, CAR, Libya, South Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria.

Instead, there is the potential of new wars coming on board in 2021 between Sudan and Ethiopia, and Western Sahara-Morocco, where we could see much bloodshed soon. Why is Africa constantly under such pressures of war?

A closer look at the situations in each country tells us a story of foreign interference and manipulations, so that they gain access to our resources and loot. Our enemies are willing to sponsor some of these wars so that in the midst of the chaos created by them, they can steal our resources.

If we are to examine each situation prevailing in any of these countries, we will notice that the real problem is resources. Instead of a country having pride in their God-given resources, it has now become a curse on them. This is very true with the DRC, for example, Africa’s richest country in terms of resources, which has never known any peace from independence up to this day. I mean, how do we explain the lack of development in the DRC?

Some western countries and their proxies on the continent have joined hands to exploit the DRCs resources. Countries that have no recorded diamonds deposits on their territories are selling the mineral on the world market. Where are they getting the diamonds from is the question?

The same can be said of what is going on in the Central African Republic (CAR). The country, as poor as it is, does possess a lot of natural resources. It was ruled by a man called Emperor Bokassa. This man was one of the richest on the continent. He lived more affluently than some of the European leaders.

The truth is that, like the DRC, CAR is one of the richest countries in terms of natural resources. It has diamonds, gold, and other western sought-after minerals in abundance. As a result of that, the French and the Russians have all lined up deploying their militaries to the CAR on the side of the government under the guise of fighting the rebels when in actual fact, they also bolster the different rebels’ groups inciting them to cause chaos.

Amid the chaos, it gives them the chance to loot in daylight. Over the weekend, the UN troops in CAR, had to retake control of a city in the Central African Republic captured two weeks ago by armed groups waging an offensive against the government of President Faustin-Archange Touadera. Rebels abandoned their positions in Bangassou, 750km east of the capital, Bangui, and fled the city following an ultimatum on Friday from the UN peacekeeping force MINUSCA, the mission’s spokesperson Vladimir Monteiro said late on Saturday.

The incumbent, who is mainly supported by the Russians and the French, is their chosen puppet giving them free access to the country’s resources. Where on earth does the CAR find the money to buy all those expensive weaponry that is being supplied by the Russians and the French? This puppet leader has mortgaged the country’s natural resources, and the people of CAR may never enjoy their God-given resources. Its just absurd to see a naturally rich country live in perpetual poverty forever.

The same is true with regards to Mozambique. Immediately after oil and LNG was discovered in Cabo Delgado, ISIS appeared. All of a sudden, it was Jihadists wanting to set up a caliphate ruled by Islamic shari’ah.

There is also a new wave of instability being imposed on Africa. This is coming from the so-called normalisations going on the continent and in the Gulf countries. Whether people agree with me or not, I remain convinced that, the normalisations are, in themselves, instabilities. The reason being that they are not based on truth and fairness, so, they are bound to collapse, sooner or later.

Their collapse will certainly not just happen in a vacuum, it will bring a lot of instabilities, wherever it happens. You cannot build peace based on falsehood and unfairness. How can a man pretend to have peace with his neighbours when, in reality, he doesn’t have peace in his own house?

The silencing of guns on the continent will not come about until our leadership really look close at what its real causes are. I believe most of our leaders are aware of the real causes of instability on our continent, but the problem is the nature of politics that they practice.

The politics of lies and deceit are the real problem. Ten or 20 years from now, when the lies are declassified, it is when the people get to know the truth, that is unacceptable. Why not let the people know the truth now? It affects them now, and must be solved now.

My advice to our leaders in Africa is, break away from western toxic politics and practice the truth period! As a warning, the new crop of youth rising is aware of these things, and if you do not change the way you are doing things, it will be a disaster. Stand up to these powers and announce your break away from the way they do things. Aluta Continua! (The struggle continues).

* Dr Mustafa Mheta is a senior researcher and head of the Africa Desk at the Media Review Network.

On ‘Rooftop of Africa,’ Ethiopia’s Troops Hunt Fugitive Former Rulers

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NYT | Politicians and military commanders who once led Ethiopia are being tracked down, caught and sometimes killed by their own country’s soldiers in the war in the Tigray region.

By Simon Marks and Declan Walsh

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — For two decades, as foreign minister, Seyoum Mesfin was Ethiopia’s face to the world — a personable and soft-spoken diplomat who brokered peace in neighboring war-torn countries, delivered speeches at the United Nations and helped establish his country as a weighty African power.

That distinguished career came to an ignominious end last week when Ethiopian soldiers tracked down Mr. Seyoum, now labeled an enemy of the state, and killed him in a muddy and remote corner of the mountainous north of the country. The government said he died in a shootout, but Mr. Seyoum’s allies say he was executed.

The former foreign minister Seyoum Mesfin was killed last week by the Ethiopian military. | via NYT | ©Reuters

Mr. Seyoum, 71, was the most prominent casualty yet of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s 11-week-old war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. The main target of Mr. Abiy’s military campaign is not a ragtag group of provincial rebels, but the politicians and generals of Tigray, who ruled Africa’s second-most populous country for much of the past three decades through their political party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or T.P.L.F.

Now Ethiopia’s former rulers are on the run in their Tigray heartland, and on the defensive against the forces they once commanded. Since Jan. 7, Ethiopia’s military has killed or captured at least 47 people from a most-wanted list of 167 senior leaders of the T.P.L.F., including four of the party’s nine-member executive committee, according to Ethiopian state media reports.

When Mr. Abiy came to power in 2018, his government quickly unseated many of these T.P.L.F. leaders, who over 27 years had overseen impressive economic growth, but ruled Ethiopia with an iron fist. Several were charged with corruption and human rights abuses, and some of them fled or retreated to their home base in Tigray.

Mr. Abiy has portrayed his military campaign as a law-enforcement drive against Tigray’s fugitive politicians, who are backed by their own seasoned military force. The Tigrayan leaders went ahead with a regional election in September, in defiance of Mr. Abiy’s order to postpone the vote due to the Covid-19 pandemic. He said he launched his military operation on Nov. 4 in response to an attack on a federal military base in Tigray.

“The government is engaged in a stabilizing mission for a month now while it continues to bring to justice perpetrators,” Billene Seyoum, Mr. Abiy’s spokeswoman, said in a statement.

But the T.P.L.F. says that Mr. Abiy, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for resolving a long-running conflict with Eritrea, is revealing himself as yet another power-hungry autocrat. Thousands of people have died in the fighting, by most estimates, and the handful of aid workers who have been permitted to enter Tigray report human rights abuses, burned refugee camps, looted hospitals and a swelling humanitarian crisis that could lead to mass starvation.

Refugees in Tigray are “emaciated, begging for aid that is not available,” Filippo Grandi, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, said in a statement last week.

Despite Mr. Abiy’s recent military successes, the swift and bloodless victory he once promised in Tigray remains far from his grasp. The T.P.L.F. has retreated to the mountains, alongside thousands of heavily armed fighters.

Fighting has raged across the region in recent weeks, according to U.N. security reports seen by The New York Times. Human rights groups have shared accounts of atrocities against civilians, including plunder, sexual violence and killings.

And as Mr. Abiy ramps up his assault on the T.P.L.F., brushing aside international pleas to start peace talks, experts warn that he risks boosting public support for the rebels inside Tigray, and plunging his country deeper into a protracted conflict with an enemy that is unlikely to give up easily.

The T.P.L.F. “is an organization in which the guerrilla ethos of not bowing to external pressure, even when cornered and pressured, is very much in its DNA,” said Rashid Abdi of Sahan, a Kenya-based conflict analysis group specializing in the Horn of Africa. “They have said they will die to the last person. People should not underestimate that.”

Mr. Abiy’s forces — with the help of Eritrean troops — hold the regional capital, Mekelle, and much of northern and western Tigray. But sporadic fighting has continued in rural areas across Tigray, and on roads leading to Mekelle, according to Western diplomats and U.N. security assessments.

Although analysts initially estimated the T.P.L.F. had 250,000 men under arms, it quickly became clear that its force was much smaller. Government soldiers and allied ethnic militias surrounded the T.P.L.F.’s forces by sealing Ethiopia’s borders with Eritrea and Sudan, effectively severing the rebels’ supply lines.

And the T.P.L.F. received an unexpected blow when soldiers from Eritrea, Ethiopia’s former enemy, crossed into Tigray to fight alongside Mr. Abiy’s forces. In such conditions, experts say, it’s unclear how long the T.P.L.F. can hold out.

Still, the situation is fluid and unpredictable. Border clashes between Ethiopia and Sudan in recent weeks, over a patch of disputed farmland, could play to the advantage of the T.P.LF. if Sudan helps the rebels to resupply.

And the top military commanders of the T.P.L.F. remain at large. Two Western officials and one with the T.P.L.F., who were not authorized to speak publicly, identified Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a former head of the Ethiopian military, as a senior rebel leader.

General Tsadkan led Ethiopia into combat against Eritrea during the two countries’ brutal border war between 1998 and 2000. In recent years, after retiring from the army, he ran a small brewery. Now 66, he is back in the fight with the newly formed Tigray Defense Forces, battling the Ethiopian army he once commanded.

One T.P.L.F. stronghold, the Western officials said, is in the Tembien mountains, a cluster of jagged hills and narrow winding roads in central Tigray — part of a highland massif often called the “rooftop of Africa.”

Kjetil Tronvoll, an expert on the T.P.L.F. at Bjorknes University College in Oslo, said the party’s leadership has likely dispersed in small groups, to spread the risk of capture.

It was in Tigray’s central hills near the Tekeze River that Mr. Abiy’s force scored a symbolic coup earlier this month, when they captured Sebhat Nega, an octogenarian founding member of the T.P.L.F.

Ethiopian federal troops crossed tributaries of the Tekeze and hiked up steep hillsides in search of Mr. Sebhat, according to accounts on Ethiopian state television and a former T.P.L.F. official who had been in touch with Mr. Sebhat. After scaling a precipitous slope with ropes, they discovered Mr. Sebhat in a cave with his wife and sister.

Footage broadcast on state media showed a disheveled, white-bearded man in a tracksuit, being led in handcuffs off a military transport plane at Addis Ababa International Airport. Ethiopian leaders were jubilant.

“It was difficult to believe a human could live in the mountain where we found him,” said Maj. Gen. Mesele Meseret, who led the operation.

The triumphal capture of Mr. Sebhat contrasted with the more muted announcement of Mr. Seyoum’s death, which was shrouded in recriminations and conflicting accounts.

The Ethiopian government said Mr. Seyoum, a T.P.L.F. leader, died during a gunfight between his bodyguards and government soldiers. But the T.P.L.F. insisted he had been summarily executed, pointing to a photo circulating online that showed Mr. Seyoum, his eyes closed, with blood streaming from a bullet-sized wound in his forehead.

“Seyoum deserved to end his days in comfortable retirement with all the respect due to a statesman and patriot,” said Alex de Waal, a Horn of Africa scholar at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, who knew Mr. Seyoum, and called for an international investigation into his death. “His killing should be a red line.”

But Mr. Abiy shows little sign of backing down. On Tuesday, Ethiopia’s election board formally barred the Tigrayan party from elections that Mr. Abiy has set for June 5. Some had hoped the elections might act as a spur to peace talks.

The government accuses Western media of falsely portraying Mr. Abiy as a warmonger. Critics say he is hewing to the traditions of a political culture that prizes dominance.

“Abiy is buying into an old, aggressive warrior tradition in which you vanquish your enemy,” said Mr. Abdi, the analyst. “In countries like Kenya, you weaken your enemy in order to negotiate with him later. In Ethiopia, you obliterate him.”

Could a National Dialogue Solve Ethiopia’s Political Crisis?

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USIP | It is time to talk about the common challenges that every Ethiopian faces.

While the recent conflict in Tigray renewed international focus on Ethiopia, more challenges lie ahead, including elections now scheduled for June 5. The state of Ethiopia’s political transition is contested, and the country remains polarized. However, as Ethiopian scholars Emebet Getachew, Mehari Taddele Maru, and Yohannes Gedamu discuss, a national dialogue process may have the potential to address the country’s dilemmas.

What is the current state of Ethiopia’s political transition?

Emebet: The political transition underway since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power is not Ethiopia’s first. Transition should be considered a recurrent Ethiopian phenomenon which, unfortunately, has rarely occurred peacefully. As with the 1974 revolution toppling Emperor Haile Selassie and the 1991 overthrow of the Derg military government, the consequences of the 2018 transition claimed many lives, even if the transfer of power itself was generally peaceful.

This transition means different things to different people. The initial euphoria that greeted the transition was short-lived. There was limited consensus to propel change. Critics were left out of the transition process leading to avoidable conflicts. The transition thus faces an uphill battle to stabilize and effectively govern the country, especially since reconciliation has not been high on the agenda.

Mehari: Ethiopia faces a “war of visions” as to its future. One vision is of centralization, the basis of which is to reclaim quasi-unitarist powers that have been—at least de jure—dismantled over decades. This vision recalls Ethiopia’s contested history of forcible assimilation. The same unitarist governance style, albeit with some aspects of decentralization, is now in the making. Proponents of this vision employ both constitutional norms, and when they deem necessary, unconstitutional, oppressive means including war on those who resist. This vision of centralization is undemocratic and antagonistic to multiculturalism.

On the other side is a vision of federalism, greater devolution of power, more autonomy, confederal arrangements, self-determination and even, potentially, secession. There are also middle positions between the two extremes with overlapping visions, based on maintaining the current constitution, with some tweaks. Ethiopia’s current system of multinational federalism still partially addresses the country’s historical problems, although it is also responsible for spawning new local conflicts.

By appointing new regional state presidents and councils, the prime minister’s office is replacing federalism with centralization. Supporters of Abiy back these actions as part of the transition to democracy and the preservation of the state, seemingly even at the cost of political instability, military confrontation, and the death of civilians. Choreographed narratives of national unity undermine the need for the constitutionally guaranteed governance of diversity. Political leaders of the most critical opposition to Abiy are in jail. Ethiopia has shut down independent and critical local media outlets, increased censorship and state propaganda, and reduced academic freedom. As a consequence, the Ethiopian state is in a precarious situation. The recent announcement of the election calendar only makes the state more fragile.

Yohannes: Reforms by Abiy’s administration were initially fast paced, although this has since slowed. But many key promises were fulfilled. In the first year of reforms, prisoners were released, the media revived, and exiled opposition returned to the country. A reformed ruling party has been established, which created inclusive politics by better involving regional political parties than previously. True, there have been serious peace and security challenges: repeated violence in Benishangul-Gumuz, Guji, and Wollega. Sadly, internal displacement and massacres on the basis of identity are now common. The government lost patience and even arrested some opposition leaders. However, the government continued to enact security sector reforms, long-term economic plans and other meaningful development programs, including environmental initiatives such as the Green Legacy Initiative.

Ethno-nationalist political narratives have increased ethnic polarization, inter-communal intolerance and violence, and are antagonistic to Abiy’s hope for unity. Such narratives that pit one group against another were exploited by some of Abiy’s opposition. Now that a date for a vote has been set, the 2021 elections will be another major test for Ethiopia’s future.

Given Ethiopia’s many challenges, is there a place for a national dialogue process?

Mehari: There is no military solution to a war of visions. Any government that fails to recognize the precedence of politics over military action risks facing protracted armed resistance and insurrection.

The Ethiopian government rejected calls for dialogue during the constitutional crisis in Ethiopia, when it became clear that elections would not be held on schedule and that the constitutional term of office of the government would soon expire. The government rejected dialogue to resolve the conflict with the Tigray region. Now, the solution lies in building bridges between communities and narrowing the gulf between the different political visions. Since existing institutions like the reconciliation commission are distrusted, a new process is required. A national dialogue is the best option of all, although it will not necessarily resolve all the problems Ethiopia faces.

Yohannes: Yes, there is always a place for national dialogue, as long as there is genuine commitment. Past Ethiopian regimes, including the one led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) before 2018, downplayed the need for such dialogue by saying that the timing was not right, and that Ethiopia faced too many challenges at that moment. The Abiy government is the first in Ethiopian history to have established a reconciliation commission to study and recommend solutions. As with his other initiatives, however, some of Abiy’s opponents undermined the idea of this commission. However, I have hope that this is a good place from which dialogue can start, if people agree that reconciliation is also about looking forward rather than just arguing about the past. It is time to talk about the common challenges that every Ethiopian faces, not only concentrate on particular, group-based grievances.

Emebet: Initiatives that foster national dialogue are needed more than ever in Ethiopia. Existing civil society initiatives should not be overlooked. One such initiative is the Multi-stakeholder Initiative for National Dialogue (MIND), a coalition of Yehasab Me’ad (Plate of Ideas), Destiny Ethiopia and the Political Parties’ Joint Council, endorsed and supported by the Ministry of Peace. MIND intends to bring “contentious issues to the table and discuss them one by one to create a common understanding step by step.” Led by civil society, MIND aims to build confidence in the concept of dialogue among participants. An inclusive national dialogue could help MIND strengthen its attempts to resolve challenges to peace and security.

How could a successful national dialogue process for Ethiopia be designed?

Yohannes: Work could start with the reconciliation commission, which could educate the public about the dimensions of reconciliation and what the commission aims to achieve. Some critical differences among groups and parties must be examined, and a task force that involves all stakeholders organized to debate and reach at least partial consensus. The goal should be to arrive at a common national agenda.

Emebet: For a national dialogue to succeed, five aspects must be considered:

  • Credibility of the conveners: Public trust in who convenes a national dialogue is especially critical in a deeply polarized society like Ethiopia. The whole process depends on the integrity, impartiality, and public perception of the convener(s).
  • Inclusivity: If critical participants are excluded from the process, the credibility and legitimacy of the process will be reduced. Inclusion is an ongoing process, and broad-based consultations are necessary if people are to feel they are represented in both the process and the outcomes of the dialogue. A commitment to inclusivity requires both formal (track 1) and informal (track 2) efforts. It also requires being gender and conflict sensitive.
  • Institutional linkages: Dialogue does not occur in a vacuum. Thinking how the process involves, for example, regional governments and processes, such as the elections and the reconciliation commission, will strengthen the coherence of the effort. Critically, it is unlikely that dialogue can be sustained if past grievances and serious human rights violations are ignored, so links to the institutions responsible for these processes is also needed.
  • How dialogue outcomes will be implemented: A dialogue process will not in itself solve the problems of the country. Effective implementation of the dialogue’s outcomes is needed, including of any recommendations to amend policy and legislation as well as on accountability and reconciliation. The high expectations of the process must be managed.
  • Mobilizing resources: Significant technical and financial resources are needed to involve large number of participants and multiple consultations.

Mehari: Dialogue design must be a guided by the goals of the process. Further, the process must account for realities on the ground, in particular, the war in Tigray and conflicts elsewhere in Ethiopia, the detentions and stifling of critical voices in the political opposition, political prisoners, and recent atrocities, assassinations, and displacement.

There should be a pre-dialogue to consult stakeholders and to solicit views on the central issues to be addressed. These consultations should also inform the dialogue’s design. The design of the dialogue needs to consider structure and rules; the core agenda; criteria for determining the participants, who may include, but not be limited to, political parties and armed groups; seating arrangements; and a realistic timeline, all outlined in an implementation roadmap. A sound communications strategy is vital to build and maintain trust, publicize progress, address dis- and misinformation and where necessary, change behavior.

Ultimately, Ethiopian ownership of the process, participants’ political will, and determination to ensure implementation will be intrinsic to the success of any dialogue process.

 

Emebet Getachew is country program manager at the Life & Peace Institute in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Mehari Taddele Maru is a professor at the European University Institute in Florence, Italy. Yohannes Gedamu is a lecturer in political science at Georgia Gwinnett College in Lawrenceville, Georgia.

The views expressed by the authors are their own.

After two months of war, Tigray faces starvation

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The Economist | Ethiopia’s government appears to be blocking food deliveries to the region

No image better symbolises the fall from power of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (tplf), the party that had called the shots in Ethiopia for almost three decades. Sebhat Nega, one of its founders, was pictured this month in handcuffs, wearing a rumpled tracksuit and a single sock. The 86-year-old, long one of Ethiopia’s most powerful men, had been captured by the army. His party, which was pushed out of power amid massive protests in 2018, has been fighting the government led by Abiy Ahmed for the past two months. It is not going well.

Several other senior tplf figures have been killed by the army. Among them was Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s longest-serving foreign minister. The killings and arrests appear to have left the tplf in disarray. Its leaders, including the ousted president of the Tigray region, Debretsion Gebremichael, have been in hiding for over a month. Although the tplf still controls sizeable swathes of rural Tigray, it holds no towns or cities. Allies of Abiy, who has already declared victory, believe it is only a matter of time before the rest of what he calls the “junta” are captured or killed.

But time is not a luxury Tigrayans can afford. For weeks the vast majority of the region’s roughly 6m people have been without adequate food, water or medicine. According to the interim administration of Tigray, which Abiy appointed last month, more than 2m civilians have been driven from their homes. The state-appointed human-rights commission has warned of a “humanitarian crisis”. According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, run by the American government, parts of central and eastern Tigray are probably one step from famine. “We could have a million dead there in a couple of months,” frets a Western diplomat.

It is impossible to know how bad the crisis is because phone lines are down and the government has barred journalists from going to most of Tigray. It also restricts the movement of aid workers. But accounts are trickling out. In some places, especially in the north, crops have been burnt. In others, farmers abandoned their fields before the harvest.

Even where food is still available, many people have no means of getting it. Banks are closed across Tigray (apart from in Mekelle, the region’s capital). So are markets and shops. In many places fuel has run out. Inflation is rampant. “Even if you have the money, you don’t have a bank,” says Kibrom, who fled from Tigray to Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, last month. “If you have grain, you don’t have a mill. If you have a mill, you don’t have power.”

Hospitals are also running out of supplies. In most, such as the one in Humera, a town close to Sudan and Eritrea, staff have not been paid since October. A lack of electricity means medicines are spoiling—if there are any left at all. When Médecins Sans Frontières (msf), an international charity, arrived at the hospital in Adwa earlier this month, its staff found that it had been almost completely looted. “How are we going to do blood transfusions that save lives if we don’t have a refrigerator?” asks Mari Carmen Viñoles, the head of msf’s emergency unit.

The federal government disputes such accounts. “There is no starvation in Ethiopia,” said a spokesman for the federal disaster management agency on January 19th. It claims to have distributed aid to nearly 2m people in northern Ethiopia (though it is unclear how many of those were actually in Tigray).

Muferiat Kamil, the minister of peace, says her ministry is reaching citizens even in the central areas of Tigray, which are largely under the control of the tplf. This is implausible. A senior humanitarian official notes that civilians in these places are “effectively trapped”. tplf forces regularly attack military convoys, which makes it impossible for the government to deliver supplies safely. An agreement signed with the un last month to allow aid groups to travel unhindered throughout the region is not being honoured. This is probably because officials do not want them to expose war crimes or the presence of thousands of troops from neighbouring Eritrea (who are helping the government). Four un staff were shot at and detained last month for entering areas where a government official said “they were not supposed to go”.

Lorries carrying emergency supplies are also being stopped. Despite some recent improvements, the system for getting permits to let them into Tigray is slow and complex. Even when permission is granted by the central government, local authorities in neighbouring regions halt shipments, saying that they too have to give permission. Once the lorries arrive in Tigray, local army commanders stop them, citing security or perhaps because they think the food will end up in rebel hands.

It is possible that Ethiopia’s government is too incompetent to realise that its actions are likely to cause starvation. But it seems more likely that the authorities are deliberately holding back food in an effort to starve the rebels out. “The lack of humanitarian access is part and parcel of the war campaign,” says a un diplomat. Even before the war began there was an effort to blockade Tigray to weaken its leaders. In October the federal government stopped welfare payments to poor farmers.

For decades Ethiopian governments have been guilty of putting politics before people. A famine in 1973 was covered up to avoid embarrassing the government of Emperor Haile Selassie. A decade later a Marxist military dictatorship burned crops and restricted aid to Tigray in an attempt to defeat the tplf, then a ragtag band of guerrillas. There is not yet a fully-fledged famine in Tigray. But there is a real danger that history will repeat itself. ■

UK backs Sudan economic reforms with over $50 million

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Source: AP | Noha Elhennawy 

Britain’s foreign secretary announced Thursday that his government would offer more than $50 million to help poor Sudanese families as their government embarks upon major austerity measures to revive its battered economy, Sudan’s state news agency reported.

On a visit to Khartoum, Dominic Raab and Sudanese Minister of Finance and Economic Planning Heba Mohamed Ali Ahmed signed a memorandum of understanding under which Britain commits to disbursing economic aid worth 40 million British pounds, or about $54.8 million, to the African country, SUNA reported.

Sudan is on a fragile path to democratic rule after a popular uprising led the military to overthrow longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, after nearly three decades of rule. A military-civilian government is now in power but struggles with a wide range of economic challenges, including crippling debt, widespread shortages of essential goods such as fuel, bread and medicine, and a three-digit inflation rate.

“This is the first visit by a British foreign secretary to Sudan in more than ten years,” said Rosie Diyas, Britain’s spokesperson for the Mideast and North Africa. “The visit aims at supporting Sudan’s transition to democracy and civilian rule.”

The British aid will finance cash handouts to 1.6 million poor Sudanese, said Diyas. Aid recipients are expected to be those most hit by the economic reforms, slashing of subsidies and the reduction of public spending that the Sudanese government is expected to implement in order to reduce its huge public deficit.

Sudan’s transitional government has been racing against the clock to garner economic and political support of Western powers in order to end decades of its pariah status and secure reliefs of its crippling debt.

In the weeks before leaving office, former President Donald Trump removed Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, a move that allows Khartoum to get international loans. Sudan’s economy has suffered from decades of U.S. sanctions and mismanagement under al-Bashir, who had ruled the country since a 1989 Islamist-backed military coup. The removal of the terror designation came after Sudan followed in the footsteps of other key Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, by normalizing relations with Israel.

Last year, Western and Arab countries pledged a total of $1.8 billion in aid to back Sudan at a donor meeting in Berlin. At the time, Britain pledged 66 million euros, more than $186 million.

According to Diyas, the U.K. has also offered another $6.87 million in aid to address Sudan’s urgent needs emanating from the influx of more than 50,000 Ethiopian refugees, who have recently fled their country following the eruption of war in Ethiopia’s Tigray province.

Shortly before boarding his Ethiopia-bound plane, Raab told reporters at Khartoum’s airport that his government hopes Ethiopia and Sudan can resolve the ongoing border dispute in “a sensible way”.

In recent weeks, the Sudanese army has deployed thousands of troops along the Ethiopian border and reclaimed territories controlled by Ethiopian militias. The Sudanese advances came on the heels of cross-border attacks that killed and wounded many Sudanese troops. The border tension raised concerns over a potential military conflict between the neighboring countries.

“We have a longstanding friendship with Sudan and likewise a strong partnership with Ethiopia. Our message is, let’s not at this precarious moment for the region see an escalation of tension,” said Raab, adding that he would reiterate the same message to the Ethiopians during his visit there.

SUNA reported that Raab had met with Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, head of Sudan’s ruling sovereign council, Sudan’s prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, and acting Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din.

Raab had also meant to discuss with Sudanese officials the ongoing water dispute between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, SUNA reported earlier. The news agency did not later say if anything came out of those discussions. The dispute is about Ethiopia’s construction of a controversial dam on the Blue Nile River, the main tributary of the Nile, which Egypt says endangers its critical share of the Nile waters.

Ethiopia Denies Somalia Forces Involved in Fighting in Tigray

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Bloomberg | By Simon Marks and Mohammed Omar Ahmed

  • Somali lawmaker has asked president to investigate issue
  • Claim follows reports that Eritrea forces deployed in Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s government denied that Somali soldiers fought alongside federal troops in the ongoing conflict in its Tigray region.

The head of Somalia’s parliamentary committee on foreign affairs on Jan. 18 asked Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed to investigate complaints by family members that their sons had gone missing while fighting in Ethiopia. Somalia’s former deputy spy chief said in an interview this week with local broadcaster GoobJoog TV that hundreds of Somali soldiers may have died in the clashes.

The use of Somali troops would provide more evidence that the war in Tigray, which the Ethiopian government has characterized as a domestic issue, has grown into a regional confrontation. Tigray’s leaders last year alleged that troops from neighboring Eritrea were also involved in the conflict, prompting the U.S. to call for their withdrawal.

“We have seen reports about Eritrean troops that have crossed into Ethiopia,” Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti said in a statement. “We are also witnessing similar reports about Somalian soldiers participating in the same campaign. Both of these claims are false and unfounded.”

Regional Ties

The involvement of Somali troops, if confirmed, could stem from a tripartite accord signed between the leaders of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea in 2018 aimed at strengthening regional security and economic ties, said Omar Mahmood, a senior Somalia analyst for the International Crisis Group.

“One outgrowth of this has been the Eritrean training of Somali troops,” Mahmood said. “It is these troops that are now alleged to have been present during the fighting in Tigray, and suffered high casualties.”

Somali Information Minister Osman Dubbe told reporters in Mogadishu earlier that reports of its fighters going missing were “fabricated” for political reasons. Somalia is preparing to hold presidential elections next month.

The Ethiopian government and the dissident Tigray People’s Liberation Front have been at war since Nov. 4. Many of the TPLF’s senior leaders are still at large, though several key members of the party — including four of its nine-member executive committee — have been either captured or killed in the past two weeks.

The conflict has threatened to spill into neighboring Sudan. Earlier this month, it and Ethiopia traded accusations of breaching each other’s border, leading to deadly clashes around al-Fashqa, an area of fertile farming land that straddles the two nations.

U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, speaking Thursday during a trip to Sudan for talks with the transitional government, called for the two countries to avoid escalating tensions. He’s due in Ethiopia later in the day.

— With assistance by Michael Gunn