‘Extreme urgent need’: Starvation haunts Ethiopia’s Tigray

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — From “emaciated” refugees to crops burned on the brink of harvest, starvation threatens the survivors of more than two months of fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

The first humanitarian workers to arrive after pleading with the Ethiopian government for access describe weakened children dying from diarrhea after drinking from rivers. Shops were looted or depleted weeks ago. A local official told a Jan. 1 crisis meeting of government and aid workers that hungry people had asked for “a single biscuit.”

More than 4.5 million people, nearly the region’s entire population, need emergency food, participants say. At their next meeting on Jan. 8, a Tigray administrator warned that without aid, “hundreds of thousands might starve to death” and some already had, according to minutes obtained by The Associated Press.

“There is an extreme urgent need — I don’t know what more words in English to use — to rapidly scale up the humanitarian response because the population is dying every day as we speak,” Mari Carmen Vinoles, head of the emergency unit for Doctors Without Borders, told the AP.

But pockets of fighting, resistance from some officials and sheer destruction stand in the way of a massive food delivery effort. To send 15-kilogram (33-pound) rations to 4.5 million people would require more than 2,000 trucks, the meeting’s minutes said, while some local responders are reduced to getting around on foot.

The specter of hunger is sensitive in Ethiopia, which transformed into one of the world’s fastest-growing economies in the decades since images of starvation there in the 1980s led to a global outcry. Drought, conflict and government denial contributed to the famine, which swept through Tigray and killed an estimated 1 million people.

The largely agricultural Tigray region of about 5 million people already had a food security problem amid a locust outbreak when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Nov. 4 announced fighting between his forces and those of the defiant regional government. Tigray leaders dominated Ethiopia for almost three decades but were sidelined after Abiy introduced reforms that won him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict. More than 50,000 have fled into Sudan, where one doctor has said newer arrivals show signs of starvation. Others shelter in rugged terrain. A woman who recently left Tigray described sleeping in caves with people who brought cattle, goats and the grain they had managed to harvest.

“It is a daily reality to hear people dying with the fighting consequences, lack of food,” a letter by the Catholic bishop of Adigrat said this month.

Hospitals and other health centers, crucial in treating malnutrition, have been destroyed. In markets, food is “not available or extremely limited,” the United Nations says.

Though Ethiopia’s prime minister declared victory in late November, its military and allied fighters remain active amid the presence of troops from neighboring Eritrea, a bitter enemy of the now-fugitive officials who once led the region.

Fear keeps many people from venturing out. Others flee. Tigray’s new officials say more than 2 million people have been displaced, a number the U.S. government’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance calls “staggering.” The U.N. says the number of people reached with aid is “extremely low.”

A senior Ethiopian government official, Redwan Hussein, did not respond to a request for comment on Tigray colleagues warning of starvation.

In the northern Shire area near Eritrea, which has seen some of the worst fighting, up to 10% of the children whose arms were measured met the diagnostic criteria for severe acute malnutrition, with scores of children affected, a U.N. source said. Sharing the concern of many humanitarian workers about jeopardizing access, the source spoke on condition of anonymity.

Near Shire town are camps housing nearly 100,000 refugees who have fled over the years from Eritrea. Some who have walked into town “are emaciated, begging for aid that is not available,” U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said Thursday.

Food has been a target. Analyzing satellite imagery of the Shire area, a U.K.-based research group found two warehouse-style structures in the U.N. World Food Program compound at one refugee camp had been “very specifically destroyed.” The DX Open Network could not tell by whom. It reported a new attack Saturday.

It’s challenging to verify events in Tigray as communications links remain poor and almost no journalists are allowed.

In the towns of Adigrat, Adwa and Axum, “the level of civilian casualties is extremely high in the places we have been able to access,” the Doctors Without Borders emergency official Vinoles said. She cited the fighting and lack of health care.

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — From “emaciated” refugees to crops burned on the brink of harvest, starvation threatens the survivors of more than two months of fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

The first humanitarian workers to arrive after pleading with the Ethiopian government for access describe weakened children dying from diarrhea after drinking from rivers. Shops were looted or depleted weeks ago. A local official told a Jan. 1 crisis meeting of government and aid workers that hungry people had asked for “a single biscuit.”

More than 4.5 million people, nearly the region’s entire population, need emergency food, participants say. At their next meeting on Jan. 8, a Tigray administrator warned that without aid, “hundreds of thousands might starve to death” and some already had, according to minutes obtained by The Associated Press.

“There is an extreme urgent need — I don’t know what more words in English to use — to rapidly scale up the humanitarian response because the population is dying every day as we speak,” Mari Carmen Vinoles, head of the emergency unit for Doctors Without Borders, told the AP.

But pockets of fighting, resistance from some officials and sheer destruction stand in the way of a massive food delivery effort. To send 15-kilogram (33-pound) rations to 4.5 million people would require more than 2,000 trucks, the meeting’s minutes said, while some local responders are reduced to getting around on foot.

The specter of hunger is sensitive in Ethiopia, which transformed into one of the world’s fastest-growing economies in the decades since images of starvation there in the 1980s led to a global outcry. Drought, conflict and government denial contributed to the famine, which swept through Tigray and killed an estimated 1 million people.

The largely agricultural Tigray region of about 5 million people already had a food security problem amid a locust outbreak when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Nov. 4 announced fighting between his forces and those of the defiant regional government. Tigray leaders dominated Ethiopia for almost three decades but were sidelined after Abiy introduced reforms that won him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict. More than 50,000 have fled into Sudan, where one doctor has said newer arrivals show signs of starvation. Others shelter in rugged terrain. A woman who recently left Tigray described sleeping in caves with people who brought cattle, goats and the grain they had managed to harvest.

“It is a daily reality to hear people dying with the fighting consequences, lack of food,” a letter by the Catholic bishop of Adigrat said this month.

Hospitals and other health centers, crucial in treating malnutrition, have been destroyed. In markets, food is “not available or extremely limited,” the United Nations says.

Though Ethiopia’s prime minister declared victory in late November, its military and allied fighters remain active amid the presence of troops from neighboring Eritrea, a bitter enemy of the now-fugitive officials who once led the region.

Fear keeps many people from venturing out. Others flee. Tigray’s new officials say more than 2 million people have been displaced, a number the U.S. government’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance calls “staggering.” The U.N. says the number of people reached with aid is “extremely low.”

A senior Ethiopian government official, Redwan Hussein, did not respond to a request for comment on Tigray colleagues warning of starvation.

In the northern Shire area near Eritrea, which has seen some of the worst fighting, up to 10% of the children whose arms were measured met the diagnostic criteria for severe acute malnutrition, with scores of children affected, a U.N. source said. Sharing the concern of many humanitarian workers about jeopardizing access, the source spoke on condition of anonymity.

Near Shire town are camps housing nearly 100,000 refugees who have fled over the years from Eritrea. Some who have walked into town “are emaciated, begging for aid that is not available,” U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said Thursday.

Food has been a target. Analyzing satellite imagery of the Shire area, a U.K.-based research group found two warehouse-style structures in the U.N. World Food Program compound at one refugee camp had been “very specifically destroyed.” The DX Open Network could not tell by whom. It reported a new attack Saturday.

It’s challenging to verify events in Tigray as communications links remain poor and almost no journalists are allowed.

In the towns of Adigrat, Adwa and Axum, “the level of civilian casualties is extremely high in the places we have been able to access,” the Doctors Without Borders emergency official Vinoles said. She cited the fighting and lack of health care.

Hunger is “very concerning,” she said, and even water is scarce: Just two of 21 wells still work in Adigrat, a city of more than 140,000, forcing many people to drink from the river. With sanitation suffering, disease follows.

“You go 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the city and it’s a complete disaster,” with no food, Vinoles said.

Humanitarian workers struggle to gauge the extent of need.

“Not being able to travel off main highways, it always poses the question of what’s happening with people still off-limits,” said Panos Navrozidis, Action Against Hunger’s director in Ethiopia.

Before the conflict, Ethiopia’s national disaster management body classified some Tigray woredas, or administrative areas, as priority one hotspots for food insecurity. If some already had high malnutrition numbers, “two-and-a-half months into the crisis, it’s a safe assumption that thousands of children and mothers are in immediate need,” Navrozidis said.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network, funded and managed by the U.S., says parts of central and eastern Tigray are likely in Emergency Phase 4, a step below famine.

The next few months are critical, John Shumlansky, the Catholic Relief Services representative in Ethiopia, said. His group so far has given up to 70,000 people in Tigray a three-month food supply, he said.

Asked whether combatants use hunger as a weapon, one concern among aid workers, Shumlansky dismissed it by Ethiopian defense forces and police. With others, he didn’t know.

“I don’t think they have food either, though,” he said.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 59 – 18 January 2021

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 17 January)

● According to Sudan Tribune, the head of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, disclosed that Sudanese troops were deployed on the border as per an agreement with the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, arranged prior to the beginning of the war.

● Al-Burhan told a gathering about the arrangements that were made in the planning of the military actions: “I visited Ethiopia shortly before the events, and we agreed with the Prime Minister of Ethiopia that the Sudanese armed forces would close the Sudanese borders to prevent border infiltration to and from Sudan by an armed party.”

● Al-Burhan stated: “Actually, this is what the (Sudanese) armed forces have done to secure the international borders and have stopped there.” His statement suggests that Abiy Ahmed spoke with him about the military plans before launching the military operation in Tigray.

● Ethiopia has called the operation a “domestic law and order” action to respond to domestic provocations, but the planning with neighbours in the region on the actions paint a different picture.

● Al-Burhan described as “inaccurate” statements by Ethiopian officials saying that Sudanese military are implementing the agenda of a third party. “Statements by Ethiopian officials claiming several border areas are a new development that requires to defend the integrity of the Sudanese territory.”

● Reported in the Somali Guardian that dozens of Somali soldiers were used as cannon fodder in the recent offensive in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and were killed in the conflict. The Somali soldiers were deployed after completing training in Eritrea a few months ago. The Somali government has previously denied involvement in the Tigray war.

● Report received that Amb. Seyoum Mesfin, Asmelash Weldeselassie and Abay Tsehaye were taken from their houses during the war and then brought to Senafe in Eritrea and mistreated there. They have recently been handed to the Ethiopian federal military and were executed without any charge.

● Eritrea is handing out Eritrean national ID-cards to Tigrayans living up to 8kms North of Adigrat. Eritrea is claiming 36 km into Tigray towards Adigrat belongs to Eritrea.

● Reported that 90% of the Central Zone of Tigray now controlled by Tigray regional forces and fighting was also reported in the Southern, Eastern, Western and Southern fronts.

● Tigray regional forces have captured 30 soldiers from EDF in Wajirat in Southern Tigray.

● Fighting was reported at Edaga Arbi and Tigray regional forces have destroyed one ENDF battalion and captured 8 Bren machine guns, 100 AK-47 and many soldiers. In revenge, ENDF forces killed more than 80 youths at Debre Abbay.

● An ENDF allied convoy was reportedly ambushed by Tigray defence forces at Enda Maryam near Hagereselam town in Central Zone Tigray.

● Fires were detected within Enticho town in Central Tigray, a location within an active area of conflict.

● Reported that more than 750 Tigrayan ethnic members of the federal police, who were disarmed during the Tigray war have been deployed and arrived in the Southern Tigray without arms after a short training with the purpose of restoring law and order.

● More Eritrean troops are coming to Adigrat telling citizens to stay closed at home.

● The Sudan defense minister said Ethiopia is massing military forces on the borders in locations facing the Sudanese army deployment.

● Sudan calls on Ethiopia to withdraw its forces from all positions under its control.

● The Washington Post writes that “Though Ethiopia’s prime minister declared victory in late November, its military and allied fighters remain active amid the presence of troops from neighboring Eritrea.”

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 17 January)

● A report by The Washington Post states that starvation haunts Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

● The Washington Post writes that the “first humanitarian workers to arrive after pleading with the Ethiopian government for access describe weakened children dying from diarrhea after drinking from rivers.” The Post reports that “A local official told a Jan. 1 crisis meeting of government and aid workers that hungry people had asked for ‘a single biscuit.’”

● The Washington Post reported that a doctor in Sudan where refugees arrive stated that newer arrivals show signs of starvation. It is also reported that new arrivals come as far as from Aksum and Mekelle to Sudan.

● The Washington Post reports that “More than 4.5 million people, nearly the region’s entire population, need emergency food.” It reports a meeting in which “a Tigray administrator warned that without aid, ‘hundreds of thousands might starve to death’”.

● The Washington Post reports that “In the towns of Adigrat, Adwa and Axum, ‘the level of civilian casualties is extremely high in the places we have been able to access’”

● According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network “parts of central and eastern Tigray are likely in Emergency Phase 4, a step below famine.” states the Washington Post.

● The AP reports the head of the emergency unit of Doctors without Borders, Mari Carmen Vinoles, stating that “There is an extreme urgent need — I don’t know what more words in English to use — to rapidly scale up the humanitarian response because the population is dying every day as we speak.”

● The Telegraph reported that churches and mosques in Tigray are attacked, vandalized and their sacred treasures looted. Further, International experts warned of historical vandalism and “cultural cleansing”.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 17 January)

● The International Tigrayan Muslims Association expressed outrage over the attack on the Al-Nejashi Mosque.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

17/01/2021 News and Commentaries – Tigray War

‘Extreme urgent need’: Starvation haunts Ethiopia’s Tigray. 

From “emaciated” refugees to crops burned on the brink of harvest, starvation threatens the survivors of more than two months of fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

The first humanitarian workers to arrive after pleading with the Ethiopian government for access describe weakened children dying from diarrhea after drinking from rivers. Shops were looted or depleted weeks ago.

A local official told a Jan. 1 crisis meeting of government and aid workers that hungry people had asked for “a single biscuit.” Washington Post

Report: “Hundreds of Somali troops used as cannon-fodder in Ethiopia’s Tigray War”

Dozens of Somali soldiers were killed in Ethiopia’s Tigray region months after crossing over the border with Eritrean troops on November last year following their graduation from military training camps in Eritrea | Somalia. Somali Guardian

Ethiopia is massing military forces on the borders in locations facing the Sudanese army deployment sites.

Sudanese troops have been deployed on the border in agreement with Ethiopia’s PM: al-Burhan

The head of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, disclosed Saturday that he had agreed with the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to deploy the Sudanese troops to secure the borders between countries. Sudan Tribune

‘Major violations’ of international law at Tigray refugee camps.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said satellite imagery showed fires burning and fresh signs of destruction at the Shimelba and Hitsats camps for refugees from neighbouring Eritrea which people fled due to political persecution and compulsory military service before the conflict in Tigray.

“These are concrete indications of major violations of international law,” Filippo Grandi, commissioner of the UNHCR, said in a statement on Thursday. Al Jazeera

EU’s Borrell says ‘possible war crimes’ in Ethiopia’s Tigray.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Friday said that “possible war crimes” have been reported in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and insisted authorities must open humanitarian access.

“The situation on the ground goes well beyond a purely internal ‘law and order’ operation. We receive consistent reports of ethnic-targeted violence, killings, massive looting, rapes, forceful returns of refugees and possible war crimes,” Borrell wrote in a blog post.

“More than two million people have been internally displaced. And while people are in dire need of aid, access to the affected region remains limited, which makes it very difficult to deliver humanitarian assistance.” AFP

Meet the people forced to flee Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

“We saw many dead bodies”, Melashu, 65 .

“I saw they were killing young men, so I fled. Here I feel safe,” Ashenafi, 19.

“I wish I didn’t have to give birth to my baby in this place,” Leilti, 30. Norwegian Refugee Council

 

Sudanese troops have been deployed on the border in agreement with Ethiopia’s PM: al-Burhan

Source: Sudan Tribune

The head of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, disclosed Saturday that he had agreed with the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to deploy the Sudanese troops to secure the borders between countries.

On the first of November 2020, days before the attack of the Ethiopian federal army on the TPLF forces in Tigray region, al-Burhan travelled to Ethiopia together with Omer Gamar Eldin the Foreign Minister, Jamal Abdel Majeed the head of the General Intelligence Service, and Yasir Mohamed Osman the head of the Military Intelligence.

Al-Burhan told a gathering of businessmen and entrepreneurs to support the Sudanese army that his army has no intention to wage war against Ethiopia. He added that the army has been deployed within the Sudanese borders.

“I visited Ethiopia shortly before the events, and we agreed with the Prime Minister of Ethiopia that the Sudanese armed forces would close the Sudanese borders to prevent border infiltration to and from Sudan by an armed party,” he said.

“Actually, this is what the (Sudanese) armed forces have done to secure the international borders and have stopped there,” he further added.

His statements suggest that Abiy Ahmed spoke with him about these plans before to launch the military operation on the TPLF positions in Tigray few days after

He further described as “inaccurate” statements by Ethiopian officials saying that Sudanese military are implementing the agenda of a third party.

Ethiopian officials kept repeating that some people in the Sudanese government are implementing plans by a third party to harm their country without naming it.

Al-Burhan who worked in the border army during long years said he had participated four years ago in joint committees to discuss placing border markers on the ground and forming joint forces, adding nobody raised doubts on Sudan’s ownership of any border area.

“Four years ago, I was based with a military force in the Qalaa Alluban area, in which were killed six Sudanese women a few days ago. During that time, the Ethiopians argued that they had internal problems and that the situation did not allow marking the borders,” he said.

“The political leadership at the time assessed the situation and gave us instructions to withdraw, ” he added referring to the former president Omer al-Bashir who is accused of facilitating the occupation of Sudanese borderland for over 20 years.

He further said that the statements by Ethiopian officials claiming several border areas are a new development that requires to defend the integrity of the Sudanese territory.

(ST)

የኢትዮጵያ ፍጻሜ: ጉዞ ወደ ዩጎዝላቪያ?

ኦህዴድ-ብልጽግና፣ መሬት አስመላሹ ብአዴንና ህግደፍ-ሻዕቢያ፣ ህወሓትን ለየብቻ መግጠም ስለማይችሉ፣ ተቧድነው ገጠሙት። ሁሉም የጋራ ጠላት እንጂ የሚያስተሳስራቸው የጋራ ሌላ አጀንዳ የላቸውም። ያሸነፉ በመሰላቸው ማግስት፣ እርስ በእርስ መባላት እንደሚጀምሩ ሳይታለም የተፈታ ነበር። ብዙ ዝርዝር ጽፌያለሁ ስለዚህ ጉዳይ፣ ወደዛ አልመልሳችሁም። ፈትቶ የለቀቀው የአማራ ምልሻ / ልዩ ሀይል የአብይ አሕመድ ዋነኛ ራስ ምታቱ ነው። ይህ ሀይል ለ30 ዓመታት ሲፎክርና ሲሸልል ኖረ እንጂ ተኩሶ አያውቅም። አሁን ተደራጅቶ በቆመህ ጠብቀኝ የመተኮስ እድሉን አገኝቷል። ወልቃይትና ራያን እንዲይዝ ተፈቀደሎታል። ይህ የልብ ልብ ይሰጠውና ፊቱን ወደ ሌላ መሬት የማስመለስ ዘመቻ ያዞራል አልነ። እንሆ፣ በቤንሻንጉል ጉምዝ ልዩ ሀይልና ምልሻውን አሰማርቶ፣ ሲቪሎቹን ለፖለቲካ ትርፍ እየማገደ፣ በሰው ክልል ጦርነት ከፈተ። ኦህዴድና ኦነግም ከጉምዝ ጎን ቆመው እየከተከቱት ይገኛሉ። በጅምላ ተጨፍጭፈው፣ በጭነት መኪና ሬሳቸው እየተነዳ፣ በጅምላ እየተቀበሩ ነው። ሰው ያልዘራውን አያጭድም።

አብይ አሕመድ ያለ የሌለ ጉልበቱን ትግራይ ላይ ጨርሷል። በሌላ ክልል ጸጥታ ሊያስከብር ቀርቶ፣ በትግራይ የጀመረውን መቋጨት አይችልም። ሻዕቢያም ከቁጥጥሩ ውጭ ሆኖ፣ መከላከያ ፈለገ አልፈለገ፤ የትግራይ ጊዜያዊ አስተዳደረ ፈቀደ አልፈቀደ፣ ግድ ሳይሰጠው፣ ያሻውን እያደረገ ነው። ይህ ብልጽግናን ከፈሎታል። መከላከያን ከፈሎታል። በመከላከያና በብልጽግና ቅራኔ ፈጠሯል። አሁን ትግራይ መቀበሪያቸው ብቻ ሳትሆን፣ እርስ በእርስ የሚጫረሱባት የጦርነት አውድም እየሆነች ነው።

የአገር ውስጥ ራስ ምታቱ በቤንሻንጉል ጉምዝና በትግራይ ብቻ አይደለም እየታየ ያለው። በኦሮሚያ ኦነግ ግማሹን ቦታ ተቆጣጥሮታል። የኦህዴድ ተከታዮች ሳይቀሩ፣ ወደ ኦነግ ማዘንበል መርጠዋል። ጃል መሮን የሚከተል ሰራዊት፣ በ10ሺዎች የሚቆጠሩ ሆነዋል። በሺዎች የሚቆጠሩ የኦሮሚያ ክልል ያሰለጠናቸው ምልሻዎች፣ ጃል መሮን እየተቀላቀሉ ነው። ድፍን ኦሮሞ “እስከዛሬ ለኢዮጵያ የሞትነው ይበቃል፣ ለአገሪቱ እየሞትን በአገሪቱ እየተከዳንና እየተገደልን መኖር የለብንም፣ ከእንግዲህ ትግላችን ለነጻነታችን መሆን አለበት” ብሏል። አብይ አሕመድ ለስልጣኑ ሲል፣ ኦሮሞን ክዶ፣ ከሁሉም ተነጥሎ ብቻዉን ቀርቶ፣ የነፍጠኛ ስርዓት ለመመለስና ለማንገስ እያሸረገደ ነው ብሎ የሚከሰው ድፍን ኦሮሞ ነው። ብንፈልግ እንኳን ኢዮጵያ ከእንግዲህ የመትረፍ እድል የላትም በማለት ኦሮሞ የራሱን ህልውና ወደሚያስከብርበት፣ ጥቅሙን ወደሚያስጠብቅበት ትግል አቅንቷል።

በሌላ በኩል ደግሞ ቅርቃር ውስጥ እንደገባ የተረዳው አብይ አሕመድ፣ የአማራ ልዩ ሀይልና ምልሻን በማስቀጥቀጥ፣ ነፍጠኛን ለመስበር በማሴር፣ ሱዳን ጦሯን ድንበር ላይ እንድታሰፍር ከሱዳን ጋር መስማማቱን በየሚዳው እየተነገረ ነው። ይህን ሊያደርግ እንደሚችል ከዴይ ዋን ጀምሮ ገምተን ነበር። የልብ ልብ የሰጠው ነፍጠኛ ከሱዳን ጋርም ይተናኮሳል፣ ቢተናኮስም በአብይ ትዕዛዝ ከመከላከያ ድጋፍ አያገኝም የሚል መላምት አስቀምጠን ነበር። እንደተገመተው ብቻ ሳይሆን ከገመትነው ባላይ ነው እየሆነ ያለው። ራሱ አብይ፣ ጦርነቱን የጀመሩትን የአማራ ምልሻና ልዩ ሀይል በይፋ በማህበራዊ ሚድያ ገጾቹ ኮንኗል። የኛን ሰላም የማይሹና የሁለቱ አገራት ወዳጅነት የማይረዱ ናቸው፣ ሲል በሱዳን ወታደር ክፉኛ መቀጥቀጣቸው ሳያንስ ድርጊታቸውን ኮንኗል። ከዛ ብኋላ ነው መከላከያ ለሁለት የተከፈለው። ከአብይ ትዕዛዝ ውጭና ከብርሃኑ ጁላ እውቀት ውጪ፣ በነፍጠኛው የሚመራ የመከላከያ ብራንች ከሱዳን ጋር መጠነኛ ጦርነት ከፍቶ ቆይቷል። አሁንም እንደተፋጠጠ ነው። ምልሻው ብቻዉን ስላልቻለ፣ ጦርነቱን በሁለት ሉአላዊ አገራት መካከል ለማድረግና ከሌላው ህዝብ የድረሱልኝ ጥሪ ለማሰማት ነው ትንኮሳው። በዚህ የብልጽግና መሪዎች አልተስማሙም። ለበርካታ ቀናት አብይ አሕመድ የገባበት አይታወቅም። አንዴ ተመርዟል፣ ሌላ ጊዜ ታሟል፣ ሌላ ጊዜ ታፍኗል የሚል ወሬ እንደሰማን አለን። ምንም ይሁን ምን፣ አገሪቱን አክቲቭሊ እየመራ እንዳልሆነና ለበርካታ ቀናት ከህዝብ እየታ ርቆ እንዳለ ግልጽ ነው።

ይህ ሁሉ ሔዶ ሔዶ የሚጠናቀቀው በአንድ አስቀያሚ እልቂት ነው። በተለይ በኦሮሚያና በአማራ ክልል የሰለጠኑ ልዩ ሀይሎች፣ እርስ በእርስ የሚጫረሱበት ግዜ እየመጣ ነው። ፊንፊኔ/አዲስ አበባ እየተሰማ ያለው ተኩስና ፍንዳታ፣ እየታየ ያለው የእሳት ቃጠሎ፣ የፍጻሜው መነሻ ምልክቶች ናቸው። ኢዮጵያ ከሞተችና ከተበተነች ሰነባብታለች። ክፋቱ በሰላም መለያየት ሲቻል፣ በደም አፋሳሽ መንገድ እንዲሆን፣ መንጋው መምረጡ ነው ጉዞዋን ወደ ዩጎዝላቪያ እየቃኘ ያለው።

የህወሓት መሪዎችን በማሰርና በመግደል የተወሳሰበና ለክፍለዘመናት የኖረ ችግራቸውን የሚፈቱ መስሏቸው የነበሩ ሰዎች ዛሬ፣ ትግራይ ላይ ቃታቸውን የሳቡባትን ቀን መርገም ጀምረዋል። ገና ነው፣ ጸጸቱ የምትችሉት አይሆንም።

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 58 – 17 January 2021

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 16 January)

● Fires have been detected on the outskirts of Humera. The fires are within an active combat zone.

● Minutes have leaked of the Tigray Emergency Coordination Centre (TECC) meeting of 8 January 2021. The minutes identify that 4.5 million are in need of food.

● The TECC includes the UN and Humanitarian organisations present in Tigray (MSF, Red Cross, CRS, Norwegian Church Aid) and several administrators of the transitional governments participated in the meeting.

● The minutes identify that five assessment teams have been re-established but only two of them “managed to go to the field”, while three teams have no access and no vehicles to go to West, North-west and Central zones of Tigray.

● Impediments to humanitarian assistance is the lack of vehicles and salary issues as people outside have not received salaries pending payment issues.

● Delivery of water has been difficult as water trucks and missionaries are looted.

● A flow of IDPs is observed “coming into Mekelle and other major towns” showing “how much desperate” people are to get “humanitarian access”. Their produce and household materials are vandalised or burned.

● The humanitarian administrators can not go back to regional offices without food as “people are starving” and they will be in trouble “if they go with empty hands”.

● The Central Zone interim administrator states that “the situation on the ground is dire”. It is explained that “food and non-food items or other livelihoods are either looted or destroyed.”

● The Central Zone administrator warns that “hundreds of thousands” may “starve to death”, if urgent emergency assistance is not dispatched.

● The humanitarian organisations do not have an adequate number of trucks for transportation. During the war all trucks from the region were allegedly looted and driven to Addis Ababa. To transport the required food ratios to 4.5 million people more than 2000 trucks are now urgently required.

● Pictures have emerged on the internet of the bodies of the former Minister of Foreign affairs Seyoum Mesfin, the former minister of Federal affairs Abay Tsehaye, and former chief Whip of the government Asmelash Weldeselassie.

● The pictures of the bodies would indicate that the three have been executed together. The picture of Seyoum Mesfin shows that he was shot in the forehead. Asmelash is wearing socks. There is no indication of any fighting.

● The ENDF had said previously that the retired politicians had been killed in a firefight after they had resisted arrest. Asmelash Weldeselassie was blind.

● The pictures of the retired leaders were posted on facebook by the head of the transitional government in Tigray, Mulu Nega.

● The statement by the provisional administrator of Tigray, Mulu Nega, that Ethiopia did not have the power to get Eritrean troops out of Tigray has led to fierce comments.

● Tsedale Lemma of the Addis Standard states in response to the admission of Mulu Nega: “Any reflection on the status of Ethiopia as a state at this moment should begin by recognizing the somber fact that it’s no longer a sovereign state. For a country that fiercely defended its sovereignty for generations, 76 days to lose it is like being hit with a brute force!”

● Increased presence of Eritrean military and intelligence reported in Addis Ababa.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 16 January)

● 20.000 health workers and other government civil servants are not receiving their salary for over two months with some exceptions.

● International partners are requested to fill in the gaps as government structures are not functioning.

● Many businesses in Mekelle remain unable to operate due to a shortage of Ethiopian Birr. A withdrawal limit is still in place, hindering economic transactions.

● The interim administration has said that the majority of businesses are still unable to conduct normal activities.

● The Interim government has also said that government offices have been looted, making public services hard to distribute.

● 24 Former TPLF officials appeared in court, including Sebhat Nega. Federal police have asked for 14 days to investigate the case. The court accepted the extension and adjourned the case until the 29th of January.

Reported regional situation (as confirmed per 16 January)

● Sudan has said that it would not allow Ethiopia to accomplish a fait accompli regarding the filling of the GERD dam. Ethiopia has said that it would proceed with the second filling of the dam in July, something which both Sudan and Egypt oppose.

● Ethiopia has denied that it violated Ethiopian airspace. The chief of the Ethiopian army staff said that Sudan was trying to mislead the Sudanese and Ethiopian people into an “unwanted situation”.

● Sudanese Prime minister Hamdok has welcomed the initiative by President Kiir to mediate the Ethiopian-Sudanese dispute.

● Kenya is in talks with China to rearrange its debt. This is important because the harbour of Mombassa serves as a collateral to these debts. This has been an additional factor in heightened tensions in the region.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 16 January)

● France will host the next Sudanese investment conference. Due to take palace in Paris in May, the conference aims to encourage investment in the country.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Brookings: Internal and external conflicts compound in Ethiopia

Source: Brookings | Chris Heitzig

In recent weeks, tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed Al-Fashqa region have flared up, including an attack on Tuesday that left 80 civilians dead, according to Sudan’s Foreign Ministry. The latest violence comes in the wake of fatal attacks in the region last month that killed more than 220 people. The situation is complicated by a multitude of actors, including gangs, which Sudanese officials have claimed are responsible for some of the violence. On Tuesday, Ethiopia indicated that it was losing patience for Sudan’s militarization on the border of the disputed territory. Sudan has blamed Ethiopian military forces for escalating conflict in the region and reported on Wednesday that an Ethiopian military aircraft had recently entered into Sudanese territory.

A new round of negotiations to resolve the dispute over the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was short-lived, as the three countries concluded on January 10 without a resolution. In separate statements, Ethiopia and Egypt faulted Sudan for the latest impasse. The statement released by Egypt’s foreign ministry read, “Sudan insisted on the assigning of African Union experts to offer solutions to contentious issues … a proposal which Egypt and Ethiopia have reservations about.” Sudan, however, claims the stalemate stems from Ethiopia’s determination to fill the reservoir with 13.5 million cubic meters of water this year in the face of objections from other countries in the region. “We cannot continue this vicious cycle of circular talks indefinitely,” said Sudanese Irrigation Minister Yasir Abbas.

These tensions continue to mount despite the fragile situation within Ethiopia itself. Last week, a senior Ethiopian military official confirmed that Eritrean troops were indeed present in the country’s Tigray region, which has been the source of infighting for several months. Humanitarians fear that fighting in that region has rendered the local population vulnerable to displacement and food insecurity. Last week, the United Nations expressed in a report the fear that Tigray could also be a source of “massive community transmission” of COVID-19 due to the suspension of health services caused by the conflict.

Ethiopia’s Oromia conflict: Why a teacher was killed ‘execution-style’

Source: BBC

The shooting dead of Kitilaa Guddata has left his family in shock.

The 32-year-old high school teacher was among the latest casualties in the conflict between government forces and rebels in Ethiopia’s Oromia region.

The violence centres around demands by an insurgent group for the “liberation” of Oromia – a vast swathe of land that is home to Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, the Oromo – and the subsequent security crackdown.

It has led to civilians being caught in the crossfire – including Mr Kitilaa. His family allege that he was killed after about 10 police officers took him from his home in Sekela town on the night of 19 November.

Frantic search

“His wife – the mother of his two children – begged them to take her instead, but they told her he would be back after some questioning,” said a relative, who spoke to BBC Afaan Oromoo on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.

The teacher never returned. His family said that after a frantic search they found his body, along with those of two other people, a couple of days later.

“There was a river and they killed him on a rock next to it. He was shot from behind; his hands were tied at the back. It looks like they used him as a target for shooting practice,” the relative alleged.

Attempts to obtain comment from the Oromia Special Police Force were unsuccessful, but Oromia regional government spokesman Getachew Balcha said he was unaware of the security forces falsely accusing people of being allied with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).

“Measures are taken only against those whose crimes are known and exposed by the people,” he told BBC Afaan Oromoo.

“But anyone found to have committed a crime, including police members and government officials, would be held accountable,” he added.

The Oromia Special Police Force has increasingly become involved in operations aimed at quelling the insurgency in the southern and western parts of Oromia after an unspecified number of soldiers were hastily redeployed to the Tigray region following the outbreak of conflict there in early November.

It highlights the mounting security challenges in Ethiopia, ending the euphoria that had gripped the nation when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rose to power in April 2018 and won the Nobel Peace Prize the following year.

He introduced sweeping reforms to end decades of authoritarian rule, including unbanning political parties and rebel groups, releasing thousands of detainees, and allowing exiles to return.

As Ethiopia’s first Oromo prime minister, Mr Abiy’s premiership was particularly welcomed in Oromia, with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the biggest rebel group, turning into an opposition party.

But one of its top military commanders, Kumsa Diriba, who is also known as “Jaal Maro”, failed to reach a deal with the government over the disarmament of fighters.

After also falling out with the OLF, he continued the insurgency for what he calls the “liberation” of Oromia under the banner of the OLA from his forest hide-out in the west.

At the time in 2018, the security forces promised to crush his group within two weeks, but more than two years later they are still battling the insurgents.

‘Buried without family knowing’

Meanwhile, reports of civilian casualties mount. Another case is that of Galana Imana, a father of two.

In a BBC Afaan Oromoo interview, his younger sister Chaltu Imana said he was arrested by nearly 20 armed officers at his home in Ambo town, about 100km (60 miles) west of Addis Ababa, in November.

Ms Chaltu said she desperately searched for him for four days until she received news that police had found a body by a river. She then went to a local police station, where officers confirmed they had found a body and buried it.

“After some deliberations they asked us to bring his photo and describe how he was dressed the night he was arrested. Later they confirmed to us that the man they buried matched the photo and the description we gave them.

“They told us to go home and mourn him in the absence of his body. We had no option,” she said, adding that the officers confirmed that her brother had died of a gunshot wound.

“We only know about his arrest. We don’t know what his crime was, we don’t know why they preferred to kill him rather than take him to court,” Ms Chaltu said.

Her brother had only been politically active in the OLF, having served on a committee to welcome leaders who had returned from exile in 2018, she said.

Ethnic Amharas killed

The exact number of casualties from the conflict is unclear, but the state-linked Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said it had recorded the alleged killing of 12 civilians by the security forces in Oromia in November alone.

“Political disagreements are costing civilians dearly,” commission adviser Imad Abdulfetah told BBC Afaan Oromoo.

He emphasised that OLA fighters have also been accused of targeting civilians.

Their victims include Amharas, the second largest ethnic group in Ethiopia and its historic rulers. More than 50 of them have been killed in western Oromia’s Horro Guduru zone since November, in an apparent attempt to drive them out of the region.

The zone had been largely peaceful. The attacks suggest that the OLA has now moved in, and the killings have shocked people and raised fears of causing ethnic tensions.

According to government accounts, 13 Amharas were reportedly killed in the zone’s Amuru district in November. In a deadlier attack in the same month, at least 34 Amharas were gunned down after OLA fighters called them to a meeting in a school compound in Guliso district.

The BBC also spoke to two residents of Abbay Choman district, who witnessed the killing of seven Amharas in December.

Competing political visions

Residents said the gunmen, whose identities they were unsure of, used a loudhailer to summon both Oromos and Amharas to a meeting on the evening of 8 December.

“There were eight armed men, they had long hair, their faces were covered, they asked for residents who were Amharas to identify themselves. They told the rest of us to go home and took away about 10 of those who stood up,” an Oromo resident said.

“We were waiting for their release the whole night, they didn’t come. We found seven bodies the next morning,” he added.

While it is unclear what exactly the OLA means by the “liberation” of Oromia, the main opposition parties in Oromia are demanding greater regional autonomy, believing it to be the best way to guarantee the political, cultural and language rights of different ethnic groups.

But their critics, especially urban elites with a more cosmopolitan outlook, fear this could result in ethnic identities becoming more entrenched, and Ethiopia disintegrating into ethnic fiefdoms.

Many Oromos feel Mr Abiy is leaning towards the latter view and wants to centralise power. This perception grew especially after he dissolved the ethnically based ruling coalition in 2019 and gave his newly formed Prosperity Party (PP) power at both the centre and in Ethiopia’s 10 regions.

The same argument is part of the conflict in Tigray.

‘Enemy of the people’

In Oromia, the security forces have also arrested almost the entire leadership of the two main opposition parties, the OLF and Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), accusing them of fuelling violence to advance their cause for greater autonomy. They deny instigating violence.

Their detention has led to many opposition supporters concluding that the political space Mr Abiy opened in 2018 had now closed. This has resulted in sympathy, if not support, for the OLA growing, especially among youths impatient for change.

The OLA has mainly attacked government officials and police officers – including commanders – in small towns and villages as part of a strategy to make them ungovernable for Mr Abiy.

However, it has also created a culture of fear among Oromos. Armed men raided two banks in Hagamsaa village in December and set ablaze an ambulance, which was taking a pregnant woman to a medical facility to deliver her baby, and a private vehicle in nearby Shambu town. Locals suspect that the rebels were trying to obtain money and vehicles for their insurgency.

The OLA is strongest in southern Oromia, which borders Kenya. The group suffered a major blow there in December when a powerful traditional leader in the region, Kura Jarso, denounced it as an “enemy of the people” after accusing its fighters of killing civilians, raping women and stealing cattle.

The conflict has also spilled into Kenya, where tens of thousands of Oromos live and are loyal to Mr Kura. In November, residents in the Kenyan town of Moyale said Ethiopian troops had crossed the border ransacking neighbourhoods and taking away 10 people they accused of sheltering members of the OLA, also referred to as OLF-Shane.

Mr Abiy visited the Kenyan side of the border with Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta in December.

In his speech, he lumped the Oromo rebels with Somalia-based militant Islamist group al-Shabab, which is the main security threat in Kenya. He said both should be “eliminated”, although there is no evidence linking the ethnic nationalists to the Somali militants.

It was a further sign that Mr Abiy intends to continue taking a hard-line approach to tackling conflicts in Ethiopia.

Canada Should Support Ethiopia

The conflict between Tigray and Ethiopia could cause rifts with other African regions. Canada’s truth and reconciliation experience could help.

Source: Policy Options Politiques | Ann Fitz-Gerald, Hugh Segal

The conflict between the Ethiopian federal government and a group from within its northern state of Tigray has ended according to the Ethiopian government. The view of some analysts is that in this post-conflict phase, there remain risks of insurgency from peripheral regions of Tigray. Rather than any organized armed conflict, or armed regrouping by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the more likely outcome is ongoing sporadic violence leading up to delayed federal elections in Ethiopia, now scheduled for June 2021.

Ethiopia is a significant player in Africa’s future. Canada should support its efforts to limit further violence by considering its experience in other similar international challenges. In the wake of its newly brokered partnership with Ethiopia following Prime Minister’s Justin Trudeau’s visit to Addis Ababa in 2020, it’s time for Canada to use its experience in support of peace and progress in Ethiopia, and across the African continent more generally.

Border tensions could bring other countries into the fray

Of increasing concern for the resolution of conflict in Tigray are recent border tensions between Ethiopia and neighbouring Sudan regarding land that has long been inhabited by Ethiopian farmers in the agricultural region of al-Fashqua. Although precise borders in this area have been contested peacefully since the 1896-1902 Ethiopian-British negotiations, otherwise cordial relations between the two allied countries now appear threatened.

Any new Sudanese hostility towards Ethiopia’s border region could compel Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to act militarily. This in turn could spur Egypt to become involved to protect its interests vis-à-vis the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam. The dam draws from the Abay River or Blue Nile, which is the main tributary of the Nile River, on which Egypt depends. Heightened Ethiopia-Sudan tensions, and the prospect of Egypt backing Sudan’s position, risks magnifying regional instability. Having these tensions become an international issue will further complicate matters for Prime Minister Ahmed, and potentially undermine and distract from the urgent internal healing and rebuilding processes in Tigray.

Internationalization of Sudan-Ethiopia tensions could realign interests of some groups and create wider internal cracks in an already challenging federalist arrangement in Ethiopia. This is why the international community must keep front and centre the peacebuilding process in Tigray – which requires the confidence and commitment of the Tigrayan people.

Ethiopia’s close partners have concerns about the conflict, which is constraining any unconditional offers of help. Disabled network communications and a lack of access to the conflict area have restricted reliable and verified situational analyses. This suggests that a wide range of perceptions could be influencing the international position on the conflict. International concerns include the role of Eritrea, which neighbours Tigray to its north, and the Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia, neighbouring to the south, in the conflict; media arrests and detentions; and issues concerning humanitarian access and alleged civilian casualties. That some Ethiopia-based advocacy organizations and international actors are not viewed as free from bias is further obscuring clarity around the situation.

Post-conflict dialogue and regional security structures

To heal from the past, there needs to be a post-conflict dialogue, which considers lessons learned from past Truth and Reconciliation Commissions held in other countries. A wider national dialogue has always been planned in Ethiopia, but because there has been so much dispute over the facts of the conflict, this dialogue process may become challenged. To an extent, this is understandable in a diverse and internally competitive, ethnic federalist system which leaves little, if any, room for perceived impartiality and independence, particularly with nine regional ethnic states and two federally administered city-states. It will, however, be essential to establish the truth regarding the facts of the conflict in order to navigate through the national dialogue process that the government seeks to facilitate.

But even if the details surrounding the conflict are established and agreed upon, the challenge then becomes the reform of the regional security structures. If this is not addressed in parallel to dialogue processes, governance and national stability will continue to be undermined.

While the constitution permits the formation of regional security forces to protect the interests of regional states, the relative strength of these security forces has amplified over the years to levels and conduct beyond the scope of the constitution. These regional militia forces have included a “Liyu Hail” (special force) capability which, like the broader regional force, is accountable directly to the regional president.

Precedent for this “Liyu” paramilitary wing was set in Ethiopia’s eastern Somali regional state. Set up originally to defend the region against the threat of an Ogaden National Liberation Front-led insurgency, the loosely structured force subsequently committed grave atrocities and human rights abuses. This Liyu concept of policing was copied in the regional states of Oromia and Amhara, and continued to grow in capacity after Prime Minister Abiy came to power.

Tigray’s regional security architecture is no exception to this setup. It was already quite expansive due to the northern region’s lead role in supporting the armed insurgency which, in 1991, overthrew the Derg military dictatorship. Tigray further increased its militia capacity following both forced and voluntary 2018 retirements of senior Tigrayan officers of the national defence forces, which brought an influx of experienced and knowledgeable operational leaders back to the region.

Truth and clarity are also required on issues concerning regional security structures, not only in Tigray but also in other regions with large militia build up. A recently reformed legal proclamation restricting the development of civil society groups with an interest in security studies has, since 1991, limited useful national data on this issue.

There is ambiguity surrounding the number of sworn members of regional and special forces, the types of weapons they can use, and the circumstances in which force can be deployed. The prospect for future regional-federal tensions will only increase if regional militia and special forces, with different lines of authority than federal forces, are maintained.  Clarity around these issues is particularly important for a pluralist democratic federalist system, which could benefit from different political party affiliations co-existing between regional and federal jurisdictions in the future.

The Ethiopian government should consider inviting a respected, independent and impartial adjudicator to assist with post-conflict dialogue and strategic communications. This would add legitimacy to the country’s reporting on key issues – clarity which is vital to the relationship between the Tigrayan population and the federal government. Too much of the federal government’s focus is on fire-fighting less-than-substantiated allegations, which only legitimizes the allegations and dilutes the progress required on the key priorities of healing and reconciliation.

Based on its view that outside mediation was neither desired nor appropriate, the Ethiopian government declined the African Union’s arbitrary appointment of three former presidents as mediators. The government has initiated a broader national dialogue involving a Reconciliation Commission and an independent committee of facilitators. Independent adjudication to verify alleged facts on the ground from the Tigray conflict is necessary to give traction to this homegrown dialogue process.

Drawing from international lessons learned

There is a long history of truth and reconciliation commissioners in South Africa, Australia and Canada. In South Africa, the process involved creating a forum where victims and perpetrators could testify without fear of prosecution on the cruelty of Apartheid. In Canada, the process was initiated by Prime Minister Stephen Harper following his apology to Indigenous Peoples for the cruelty and trauma of Residential schools. The process helped establish the truth and form a basis for reparations for survivors. The lack of commonly shared “truth” in Ethiopia between some groups creates a need for a commission. The commission would investigate the legitimate concerns that moderate and non-violent Tigrayans might have, allowing Abiy’s government to make progress towards strengthening the Ethiopian federation.

A commission could specify the nature of its mission and the questions it would consider before preparing its recommendations. Two co-chairs, perhaps a prominent and respected Ethiopian academic or judicial figure well-versed in the unique structures of Ethiopian federalism, and an external eminent person, could – together with regional religious and traditional leaders — oversee the data collection, data processing and subsequent dialogue concerning conflict-related issues.

Canada’s contribution to the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning of paramilitary weapons, as part of the Northern Ireland peace process, has relevance to this proposal. Former Chief of Defence Staff, John de Chastelain, supported by reputable Finnish and American representatives, was chosen to chair the commission. The appointment of a Catholic bishop to work with General Chastelain as co-chair for the commission resonates with the integral role of traditional and religious leaders in supporting Ethiopia’s conflict resolution tradition.

An active or retired military leader may be a good choice for co-chairing the Ethiopian commission, because of the non-partisan nature of the military. Such a leader would bring knowledge and insight when developing a workable solution for Ethiopia’s regional security structures.

Knowledge of the country, its federal dynamics, as well as experience with the Tigrayan people, matters. A reputable individual who served with the UN Mission in Eritrea and Ethiopia (UNMEE) following the 1998-2000 Ethiopian-Eritrea conflict could be of value. Canada played a very positive role in that UN mission.

For Canada, beyond the implicit value of supporting democratic federalism in Ethiopia, and contributing to peace, stability and opportunity across the African continent, there is an opportunity to make real the professed global engagement implicit in the “Canada is back slogan. Foreign policy is about principles, values and interests, and how competently a government advances them in complex global contexts. With recent events in the United States impacting on the perception of its own soft power equity, Canada should not reduce its own soft power projection – one supported by a strong commitment to democratic norms.

Canada’s impact in the past – in Cyprus, in the Middle East and Suez, in Sri Lanka, in Bosnia, on the ending of Apartheid in South Africa – has been real because Canadian leaders and diplomats engaged in situations where Canada could play a constructive role.

Ethiopia plays a major role in the future of Africa. Its legitimate effort at addressing, what appears to have been, an attempted armed attack from some TPLF elements, could benefit from Canadian support and involvement. Canada has genuine experience in similar contexts in other international challenges. It is time to offer that experience in support of peaceful resolution, conciliation and progress in Ethiopia.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 57 – 16 January 2021

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 15 January)

● During the last three days, there has been heavy fighting in Daero Hafash (East of Axum) where four battalions of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Eritrean Defense Forces (ErDF) were “totally destroyed” by Tigray forces. It is reported that Tigray forces captured “lots of weapons”.

● It is reported that in a place called Dairo Hafash, Tigray forces overtook 4.000 troops of the ENDF/EriDF.

● Fighting is going on in Tsigereda around Wukro between ENDF/ErDF and Tigray forces.

● Reported that one battalion of ENDF/ErDF was “eliminated” by Tigray forces in Ruwa Gered on the way from Adwa to Edaga Arbi two days ago.

● Reported fighting is ongoing in “various locations”.

● Video circulating with shooting and people running in Addis Ababa. No further information.

● In a meeting at Mekelle University staff with the appointed chief of the Tigray provisional government, Mulu Nega, a number of ‘difficult questions’ were raised during a hot debate. Mulu Nega told participants that he had called on the federal government to pull Eritrean troops out of Tigray. However, the country lacked the military power to force the troops to leave Tigray.

● In a nervous response to a question of what would happen to those dissenting, Mulu Nega answered: “if you don’t listen to what we’re telling you? You’d better go into the deserts and join the fight.”

● A UN team reports that it has encountered uniformed troops from neighbouring Eritrea.

● Message circulated of the relatives of a female Eritrean refugee, Eyasu Hagos, who was kidnapped from the Hitsats refugee camp in Tigray and has disappeared. When she was abducted her children Adyam Kesete, 12, and Merhawi Mebrahtom, 8 were left behind on their own.

● Reported that Hitsats camp was under Eritrean military control from end November/December. Eritrean soldiers killed people, including 2 priests that protested when soldiers tried to enter into the church. Tigray troops started shooting on 17 November in a fight with the Eritrean troops, and 9 Eritrean refugees were killed in the crossfire. Shimelba and Hitsats have not been accessible since.

● Wife and two children of Tsadkan Gebretinsae, former chief of staff of the army, have been detained.

● The Tigray regional government issued a statement today: “The government of Tigray has confirmed that Tegadalay Syoum Mesfin, Abay Tsehaye and Asmelash Weldeselassie were not in the war front due to their ages and health issues. Therefore, they are assassinated by Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean forces, very likely at the order of Isayas.”

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 15 January)

● In a video circulating on social media of PM Abiy addressing a church group, the Ethiopian PM states that his mother predicted that he would be the 7th king of Ethiopia and that he had achieved this.

● Brigadier-General Tesfaye Ayalew, Head of the ENDF Deployment Department, states: “Even if there may be good people amongst them (Tigrayans) we can’t differentiate the good from the bad. To save the country we made it so that they (Tigrayans) were excluded from doing the work.”

● Reported that the chairman of Asimba Democratic Party (ADP) Dori Asegdom is arrested. Earlier, Dori had rejected an invitation from the Prosperity Party to be part of Tigray provisional Administration.

Reported regional situation (as confirmed per 15 January)

● The ambassador of Ethiopia in Khartoum has stated that Sudan took over disputed land as it was taking advantage of the war in the Tigray. Ethiopian military warplane crossed over the disputed border area.

● Sudan has accused Ethiopia of a “dangerous and unjustified escalation”.

● The Sudanese Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) imposed restrictions on air traffic over El-Gadarif province and the greater and lower areas of Al-Fashaga in the east of the country.

● Ambassador of Ethiopia to The UAE, Suleiman Dedefo, points out that the GERD dam is located in the areas of Matema and Benishangul and that Sudan, by implication of its claim to these areas, is claiming the GERD dam. The ambassador states Ethiopia is able to protect its sovereign claim to the area.

● Sudan’s head of the Sudanese military, Lieutenant General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan, visited the disputed area, meeting Sudanese troops guarding the borders and stated that Ethiopia had started the war when militia killed civilians in the al-Fashaga area.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 15 January)

● EU suspends 88 million€ in budget support to Ethiopia until it opens access to Tigray for humanitarian aid organisations.

● EU Diplomat Josep Borrell states: “We are ready to help, but unless there is access for humanitarian aid operators, the EU cannot disburse the planned budget support to the Ethiopian government.”

● Borrell says it is no longer credible to describe the Tigray conflict as an internal “law and order” operation and that the conflict threatens stability of the whole region. He stated: “We receive consistent reports of ethnic-targeted violence, killings, massive looting, rapes, forceful returns of refugees and possible war crimes.”

● Borrell also pointed to the impact of the Eritrean participation in the war: “there are regional spill-over effects of the conflict, with for instance Eritrean troops being involved in the military operations in Tigray and with Ethiopian troops being withdrawn from Somalia”.

● Referring to the refugee camps in Tigray for Eritrean refugees, Un High Commissioner for Refugees, Fillipo Grandi states: “These are concrete indications of major violations of international law.”

● Reported that Beijing is “extremely angry” at PM Abiy for the killing of Seyoum Mesfin, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia. Seyoum “was respected in policy circles. He was the architect of Ethiopia’s strategic partnership with China that spawned a vast infrastructure renewal in Ethiopia.”

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest