19/01/2021 News and Commentaries

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  1. ‘Swift action’ needed in Tigray to save thousands at risk, UNHCR warns. UN News
  2. Starvation crisis looms as aid groups seek urgent Tigray access. Al Jazeera
  3. Can Ethiopia heal after the TPLF killings? The African Report
  4. ‘No Somali soldier killed in Ethiopia-Tigray conflict’ Anadolu Agency
  5. Anthony Blinken | Actions of the Ethiopian federal government could destabilize the Horn Of Africa. YouTube
  6. Somali mothers protest in Galkayo demanding answers to whereabouts of their missing children.
  7. China at the heart of rising Nile River conflict Asian Times
  8. Podcast: Red Sea rivalries: The Gulf, the Horn, and the new geopolitics of the Red Sea. Brookings | Transcript

 

1. ‘Swift action’ needed in Tigray to save thousands at risk, UNHCR warns. UN News

” … help is urgently needed for the tens of thousands of Eritrean refugees in northern Ethiopia”

 

2. Starvation crisis looms as aid groups seek urgent Tigray access. Al Jazeera

Humanitarians sound alarm for millions of people in need of emergency assistance in Ethiopia’s conflict-hit northern region.

“People are dying of starvation. In Adwa, people are dying while they are sleeping. [It’s] also the same in other zones in the region,” said Berhane Gebretsadik, interim

“Deliberate obstruction of humanitarian access is a classic method of systematic starvation of people,” Mehari told Al Jazeera. “Ethiopian government and Eritrean troops continue to obstruct access to humanitarian aid. The blanket continues and thus first-hand information is almost impossible to get. The restriction of information is in itself a crime of the state to hide other crimes.”

 

3. Can Ethiopia heal after the TPLF killings? The African Report

“It is difficult, the defence force is in a very remote region. We cannot bury everyone, if we could we would. Their families can ask for their bodies.” ENDF’s Brigadier General Tesfaye Ayaylew says.

 

4. Anthony Blinken | Actions of the Ethiopian federal government could destabilize the Horn Of Africa. YouTube

Joe Biden’s candidate for the US State Department, Anthony Blinken, said before the Senate, “We are concerned about the actions of the #Ethiopia|n federal government and what is happening there could destabilize the #HornOfAfrica.”

 

5. ‘No Somali soldier killed in Ethiopia-Tigray conflict’ Anadolu Agency 

  • Mogadishu denies claims that hundreds of Somali soldiers killed while fighting against Tigray rebels

 

6. Somali mothers protest in Galkayo demanding answers to whereabouts of their missing children.  

 

7. China at the heart of rising Nile River conflict. Asian Times

China-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is Africa’s largest and most divisive development project.

The Chinese-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), despite a recent breakdown in talks on Africa’s largest development project, risks powering up a range of downstream tensions and rivalries.

These run from rising rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia to a festering border war between Ethiopia and neighboring Sudan. At stake, too, is the future of almost 90% of the water in the Nile River, the world’s longest waterway.

 

8. Red Sea rivalries: The Gulf, the Horn, and the new geopolitics of the Red Sea. Brookings | Transcript

The emergence of the Red Sea as a common political and economic arena offers opportunities for development and integration, but it also poses considerable risks. As Gulf countries seek to expand their influence in the Horn of Africa, they risk exporting Middle Eastern rivalries to a region that has plenty of its own; and they aren’t the only outside powers now paying attention. China recently established its first-ever overseas military base in Djibouti, just six miles from the only U.S. base in Africa. Amid historic changes in the Horn and a rapidly-changing landscape in the Red Sea, states with different cultures, models of government, and styles of diplomacy are shaping a new frontier where the rules of the game are yet to be written.

EU to dispatch humanitarian negotiator to Ethiopia after aid suspension

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Source: Devex | Vince Chadwick

The European Union is preparing to send Finnish foreign minister Pekka Haavisto to negotiate with the Ethiopian government as it pushes for unfettered access for humanitarians in the conflict-torn Tigray region.

EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell raised the possible visit on a Jan. 9 phone call with Ethiopia’s Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen, a spokesperson for the European External Action Service told Devex Monday, adding that the idea was “welcomed.”

The move comes after the EU announced its decision Friday to halt budget support for Ethiopia over the lack of humanitarian access in Tigray.

Haavisto is an experienced Greens politician and former development minister who has acted as a special representative and adviser in Africa for Finland, the EU, and United Nations, notably in Darfur. An EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Borrell accepted Haavisto’s offer to act on his behalf in talks with the Ethiopian government due to his high-level contacts and experience in the region.

Haavisto’s precise mandate and mission will be finalized in the coming days, the official said, with the current plan for him to travel to Ethiopia in time to report back to a Feb. 22 meeting of EU foreign ministers. Haavisto’s office declined to comment.

Last Friday, Borrell outlined the EU’s decision to stop sending development assistance directly to the Ethiopian government, citing restricted humanitarian access amid “reports of ethnic-targeted violence, killings, massive looting, rapes, forceful returns of refugees and possible war crimes.”

“In the absence of full humanitarian access to all areas of the conflict, we have no alternative but to postpone the planned disbursement of €88 million [$106.7 million] in budget support,” Borrell wrote in a blog post.

The figure includes the suspension of three planned payments: €60 million for regional connectivity, €17.5 million for a health sector transformation plan, and €11 million for job creation.

“We were under circumstances under which by no means we could give a single euro of the EU budget to this government, because of what’s going on,” the EU official told Devex.

A spokesperson for the European Commission’s development department said Ethiopia will have to comply with the following conditions before the EU will disburse future budget support:

  • “Granting full humanitarian access for relief actors to reach people in need in all affected areas, in line with International Humanitarian Law.
  • Civilians must be able to seek refuge in neighboring countries.
  • Ethnically targeted measures and hate speech must stop.
  • Mechanisms to monitor human rights violations must be put in place to investigate allegations of breach of Human Rights.
  • Communication lines and media access to Tigray should be fully re-established.”

The move only affects budget support, which goes directly to the government. Other development modalities, such as funding channeled through NGOs, and humanitarian programs will continue. Last month, the EU increased its emergency aid to the region by €23.7 million.

The spokesperson did not respond to questions on how the suspension would affect the EU’s 2021-2027 development work in Ethiopia, which is currently being programmed.

Ethiopia is one of the top recipients of official development assistance from the EU. It was allocated €815 million for the 2014-2020 budgetary period, plus more than €400 million from the EU Trust Fund for Africa.

The EU official said that the European commissioners responsible for development, humanitarian aid and foreign affairs will discuss in the coming weeks how the current situation could affect the amount and implementing modalities for 2021-2027. However, it would be counterproductive to try to use the programming process as leverage against Ethiopia, the official added, arguing it would only harm the relationship and recalling that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has plenty of other partners.

Stefano Manservisi, the head of the commission’s development department from 2016 to 2019 and now a distinguished non-resident fellow at the Center for Global Development, said suspending budget support was an understandable move in the circumstances. But he underscored the need to maintain “constant, daily dialogue” with Abiy and others in order to preserve relations with Ethiopia.

“Here, we are talking about one of our biggest partners and strategic allies in the Horn [of Africa],” Manservisi told Devex. “[Ethiopia is] one of the biggest African states, from which depends the stability not only of the Horn but also of big parts of eastern Africa and Africa at large.”

The United Nations reached an agreement with the Ethiopian government late last year on humanitarian access in government-controlled areas, but EU officials argue that this is insufficient.

“International humanitarian law is not about giving access to government-controlled areas,” the EU official told Devex. “International humanitarian law means giving access to all areas where people need us, and it’s very clear that this is not the case with the current agreement. We have told the Ethiopians that we stand ready to negotiate something different, but what is now on the table is not working.”

A spokesperson for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters Friday that despite some progress, “humanitarian relief operations continue to be constrained by the lack of full, safe and unhindered access to Tigray caused by both insecurity and bureaucratic obstacles imposed by federal and regional authorities.”

A second EU official told Devex that the U.N.’s initial approach — that some access was better than none — had failed. “The government is still claiming that things are getting better, at least where they have control,” the second official said. “It’s not true. It doesn’t work.”

The Ethiopian government did not respond to requests for comment.

Kapuściński and the Autocrats

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Source: Book and Film Globe |  Neal Pollack

The late Polish journalist, like no other writer, understood societies in crisis

Everyone’s busy checking Orwell out of the library and pretending to read 1984 right now, because apparently we live in an “Orwellian” reality. But if you really want to understand, or at least try to understand, what’s going on in America, I recommend reading Ryszard Kapuściński instead. Kapuściński was a Polish journalist who had more courage on an average Tuesday than you or I have had in our entire lives. He spent decades reporting from the most dangerous war zones on Earth. He would find what’s going on in the States tragic and comic in equal measure. Kapuściński saw what really happens when societies descend into revolt.

[…] Kapuściński had many specialities as a writer, but his best literary trick was explaining autocrats, how they work, and how societies function under them. In particular, his masterpieces, Shah of Shahs, about the end of the Iranian monarchy and the rise of the caliphate, and The Emperor, about the terrifying reign of Ethopia’s monarch Halie Selassie, can help shed some understanding on what’s going on today.

[…]

The Emperor

Ethiopia doesn’t exist in the American consciousness at all, except for guilt-making commercial pleas for aid during period famines, and as the source of culinary delicacies like injera bread and zilzil tibs for urban sophisticates. In the middle of the 20th century, though, it was a larger player on the world stage, first because Mussolini’s Italy invaded it, in a precursor to World War II. Then it’s “Emperor”, Halie Selassie, became a favored pet among the Western elite, even receiving Time’s “Man of the Year” award for resisting Mussolini even though he was hiding in the English town of Bath at the time.

In reality, as Kapuściński writes in his brilliant book The Emperor, Selassie was merely a savvy bureaucrat who wheedled his way to the throne, whispering society to bend to his whims and stealing countless billions to deposit into Swiss bank accounts. Whereas Shah of Shahs is a more on-the-ground “you are there” style of book, The Emperor comes in after Selassie death in 1975, when it’s relatively safe to talk about him and his misdeeds. Kapuściński, who covered Ethiopia during Selassie’s reign as well, seeks out the surviving members of Selassie’s court, as well as some of his former servants, to provide an account of life in the insanely privileged court of a country suffering from inconceivable poverty and starvation.

The pattern is somewhat similar to Iran’s: an elaborate system of favors and rewards, hoodwinking naive Westerners into donating capital and cash, and absolute incompetence at every level of society. Monstrous violence follows. Eventually, and pathetically, Selassie falls in a military coup. The palace empties. The Emperor has no clothes.

Aftermath

Kapuściński is equally harsh on these societies after the autocrats fall. What replaces the strongman is often just as murderous as before, if not more so. The mullah-ruled Iran is a mess of repression, spying, superstition, renunciations, and meaningless, bloody street demonstrations. In post-Selassie Ethiopia, he writes of the bizarre phenomenon of “fetasha“, which authorizes every citizen to search every other citizen at all times, without explanation:

“To get things under control, to disarm the opposition, the authorities order a complete fetasha [Amharic for search], covering everyone. We are searched incessantly. On the street, in the car, in front of the house, in the house, in the street, in front of the post office, in front of an office building, going into the editor’s office, the movie theatre, the church, in front of the bank, in front of the restaurant, in the market place, in the park. Anyone can search us because we don’t know who has the right and who hasn’t, and asking only makes thing worse. It’s better to give in. Somebody’s always searching us. Guys in rags with sticks, who don’t say anything, but only stop us and hold out their arms, which is the signal for us to do the same: get ready to be searched. They take everything out of our briefcases and pockets, look at it, act surprised, screw up their faces, nod their heads, whisper advice to each other. They frisk us: back, stomach, legs, shoes. And then what? Nothing, we can go on, until the next spreading of arms, until the next fetasha. The next one might be only a few steps on, and the whole thing starts all over again. The searchers never give you an acquittal, a general clearance, absolution. Every few minutes, every few steps, we have to clear ourselves again.”

[…]

Read the full article >>

750 killed at Ethiopian Orthodox church said to contain Ark of the Covenant

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Report: Church Post

Ark of the Covenant for the Tabernacle replica at BYU in this photo from October 16, 2017. | (Wikimedia Commons)

Around 750 people were killed in an attack on an Orthodox church, which is said to contain the Ark of the Covenant described in the Book of Exodus in the Bible, in northern Ethiopia’s war-torn Tigray region — home to thousands of churches and monasteries — according to reports.

Hundreds of people hiding in Maryam Tsiyon Church in Aksum amid an armed conflict were brought out and shot to death, and local residents believe the aim was to take the Ark of Covenant to Addis Ababa, the Belgium-based nonprofit European External Programme with Africa reported in this month’s situational report, released on Jan. 9.

“The number of people killed is reported as 750,” it said. The church, the most ancient and sacred of Ethiopian Christianity and also known as the Church of St. Mary of Zion, belongs to the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church.

“I’ve not heard more than rumours about the looting of the Arc from Maryam Tsion, but if it’s true that up to 750 died defending it, it is conceivable that the attackers didn’t stop there,” said Michael Gervers, a professor of history at the University of Toronto, according to The Telegraph.

“The government and the Eritreans want to wipe out the Tigrayan culture. They think they’re better than rest of the people in the country. The looting is about destroying and removing the cultural presence of Tigray,” Gervers explained.

“People were worried about the safety of the Ark, and when they heard troops were approaching feared they had come to steal it. All those inside the cathedral were forced out into the square,” Plaut was quoted as saying.

About 1,000 people were believed to be in the church complex at the time of the attack. The EEPA said the massacre was carried out by Ethiopian federal troops and allied Amhara militia that are fighting the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

The church and and the Ark have likely not been damaged, Plaut added.

The fighting began in Tigray since Nov. 4 when the region’s ruling political party Tigray People’s Liberation Front captured the Northern Command army base in the regional capital Mekelle as part of an uprising, after which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered a military offensive. Abiy claimed on Nov. 28 that the Ethiopian National Defense Force had regained “full command” of Mekelle.

However, humanitarian workers say the fighting continues.

Tensions escalate between Ethiopia and Sudan

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DW | The already-uneasy relationship between the two countries is showing signs of simmering over into protracted conflict. But how did it reach this point?

Tensions between Ethiopia and Sudan continued to escalate on Tuesday, less than a week after Sudan accused an Ethiopian military aircraft of crossing into Sudan.

The Sudanese army reportedly advanced to the west of Ethiopia’s Gondar region near the border, while residents and government officials claimed some members of the military looted cattle and burned farmlands belonging to Ethiopian farmers.

Ethiopia-Sudan relations have long hinged on mutual suspicion and disagreements over territory.

A fragile peace between the two countries began to unravel in November 2020 after conflict broke out in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region along the disputed border.

What’s going on with the border?

The border between Ethiopia and Sudan has been disputed for more than a century, with a number of failed attempts to negotiate an agreement on exactly where the border should run.

Treaties drawn up in 1902 and 1907 between Ethiopia and Britain were intended to define the border between Sudan and Ethiopia.

But Ethiopia has long claimed that parts of the land given to Sudan actually belong to them.

“This issue has been shelved for some time and although there was Ethiopian agriculture activity in these areas, there seemed to be an understanding that it didn’t mean it was Ethiopian land,” William Davison, a senior analyst for Ethiopia at International Crisis Group told DW.

Decades of friction and negotiations seemingly ended in 2008 when a ‘soft border’ compromise was reached between the countries.

However, this agreement began to unravel after Ethiopia’s Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was removed from power in 2018.

The Ethiopia delegation’s head of the 2008 border talks, Abay Tsehaye, was a senior official of the TPLF, which ethnic Amhara leaders have since labeled a secret deal.

Initially, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s friendly relationship with his Sudanese counterpart was cause for optimism.

“After Abiy Ahmed took power, [Abdalla] Hamdok became the Prime Minister [of Sudan],” Phillip C. Jahn the Resident Representative of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Sudan told DW.

“He has spent a long part of his career in Ethiopia, so he knows a lot of people in the TPLF, but he’s also very close to Abiy Ahmed.”

However, attempts to resolve the issue at a regional summit in December 2020 were unsuccessful. Shortly afterwards, clashes between the Sudanese army and Ethiopian shifta forces took place on farmlands in the border area.

“Exactly what has triggered [Sudan’s] assertive move is not clear, but it is that assertiveness that Ethiopia believes goes against the agreements that the parties had to resolve this through negotiations that had led to the tensions,” said Davison.

Tigray conflict sparks Sudanese reaction

Ethiopia is also still reeling from an ongoing armed conflict in the northern Tigray region near the Sudanese border, possibly triggering fears on the Sudan’s side that the Ethiopians may try and take some of the disputed amid the chaos.

“When Amhara nationalists and other elements in Amhara regional state reclaimed territory in Tigray that they say historically was Amhara, they are also looking at regions that were historically part of [Ethiopia],” said Davison.

“This is believed to have led to some concerns in Sudan that the Amhara farmers will consolidate their occupation of these areas which Sudan considered Sudanese.”

Ethiopia’s ambassador in Khartoum, Yibeltal Aemero, also accused the Sudanese military of taking advantage of the Tigray crisis to take control of the disputed land.

“When the Ethiopian National Defense forces moved to Tigray region on November 4, 2020 for the law enforcement majors, the Sudanese army took the advantage and entered deep inside Ethiopian territory, looted properties, burned camps, detained, attacked and killed the Ethiopians while displacing thousands,” said Aemero.

Although Ethiopian government forces declared victory over the TPLF in the northern Tigray region in November, sporadic fighting continues in a number of areas, while the humanitarian situation continues to worsen, prompting calls for access from international aid groups.

Dam friction

Away from the core issue of the border, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam also looms over Ethiopia and Sudan’s tense relationship.

Ethiopia began building the dam in April 2011 about 20 kilometers east of Sudan’s border. Once complete, it will be Africa’s largest hydroelectric power plant. However, no agreement on the use of Nile waters has been reached – much to the concern of Sudan, which relies heavily on the Nile reservoirs for agriculture.

“Sudan was supportive of the Renaissance Dam, which of course can be beneficial to Sudan in terms of electricity, reducing flooding, enhancing irrigation,” explains Davison. “But in the last couple of years Sudan has taken a more assertive stance, it’s stressed its concerns about how the joint operation of the dam and the Sudanese dams are going to be managed…and that’s led to some tensions in the relationship with Ethiopia.”

Is conflict on the horizon?

Despite Sudan’s increasing assertiveness, Jahn said a protracted conflict is not in the best interests of the Sudanese interim government, or the Sudanese people.

“Sudan is in a deep government crisis with hyperinflation,” said Jahn. “It is in the process of negotiating a new government with the rebel groups, the civilian side and the military, which has been repeatedly postponed … Sudan cannot afford this conflict at the moment.”

Still, some civilians are already preparing to get their families near the border out of harm’s way.

“A lot of people in Khartoum are travelling to the east and relocating their family members to the cities,” said Jahn. “So everybody is very afraid of an upcoming conflict.”

But Davison believes that war between Ethiopia and Sudan is “by no means inevitable.”

“We have reached a rather sticky point…but there is also plenty of opportunity for the parties to pull back and take themselves away from the prospect of conflict,” he said.

“The prospect of Ethiopia opening up another major military front is worrying because the country is already very fragile and if it were to have more internal instability that would also have regional ramifications.”

Grim picture emerges from glimpses of Ethiopia’s Tigray war

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Special forces troops, pictured last month in the Tigrayan city of Alamata EDUARDO SOTERAS AFP/File

 

Addis Ababa (AFP) | Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared victory in his military operation in the northern region of Tigray, but there are clear signs that fighting persists despite a claimed return to normalcy.

Abiy launched the offensive last November against Tigray’s ruling party, which he accused of attacking federal army camps and seeking to destabilise the country.

Within weeks troops entered the regional capital of Mekele and Abiy announced military operations were “completed.”

But the government continues to give accounts of TPLF leaders slain in gun battles while the United Nations reports “insecurity” hampering aid access.

And in recent weeks satellite images, public statements from military and civilian officials in Tigray and scattered accounts from residents have added to evidence of a conflict unfolding largely in the shadows.

A communications blackout in much of Tigray means confirmable details remain scant.

– Region still ‘volatile’ –

When federal forces arrived in Mekele in late November, they encountered little resistance as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leadership appeared to have already fled.

And a triumphant Abiy claimed no civilians had been killed during the capture of Tigrayan cities.

Doctors at one Mekele hospital told a different story, though, saying at least 20 civilians died in shelling.

They provided AFP with photos of survivors with gruesome injuries, including lost limbs and exposed internal organs.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank says thousands have died so far, and tens of thousands of refugees have streamed across the border into neighbouring Sudan.

Federal officials have described subsequent fighting as minor operations centred on Tigrayan leaders like former regional president Debretsion Gebremichael, who has been out of contact for more than a month.

But a UN humanitarian assessment dated January 6 said Tigray remained “volatile”, with “localised fighting”.

The UN is especially worried about what happened at two camps housing over 30,000 Eritrean refugees that are inaccessible.

Top officials have repeatedly sounded the alarm about reported killings, abductions and forced repatriations from the camps back to neighbouring Eritrea.

The alleged presence of soldiers from the isolated and iron-fisted Eritrean regime in Tigray has been a hotly contested aspect of the conflict.

Five humanitarian workers have been confirmed killed at one of the camps, known as Hitsats.

“Reports of additional military incursions over the last 10 days are consistent with open source satellite imagery showing new fires burning and other fresh signs of destruction at the two camps,” UN refugees chief Filippo Grandi said in a statement Thursday.

“These are concrete indications of major violations of international law.”

– Eritrea’s role –

Ethiopia has strenuously denied Eritrean soldiers played an active role in the fighting, contradicting witness accounts.

But in December the US State Department said it was “aware of credible reports of Eritrean military involvement in Tigray” and called for Eritrean troops to be withdrawn.

Eritrea fought a brutal border war with Ethiopia in 1998-2000, back when the TPLF dominated Ethiopia’s governing coalition.

Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 in large part for initiating a rapprochement with Eritrea, whose President Isaias Afwerki and the TPLF remain bitter enemies.

In late December a top-ranking member of Ethiopia’s army told a meeting of Mekele residents that Eritrean troops had entered Tigray, but insisted they were “unwanted”.

Awet Woldemichael, a Horn of Africa security expert at Queen’s University in Canada, said this explanation was dubious.

“Eritrean involvement in the war in Tigray is not considered a violation of Ethiopia, and the international community is not worked up about it, precisely because the Ethiopian government invited it,” he said.

– Starvation warnings –

Perhaps the most immediate concern for Tigray’s estimated population of six million is humanitarian access.

So far “the number of people reached is extremely low compared with the number of people we estimate to be in need of life-saving assistance, around 2.3 million people,” said Saviano Abreu, spokesman for the UN’s humanitarian coordination office.

The government’s Tigray Emergency Coordination Centre puts the number of people needing food assistance at 4.5 million and says 2.2 million have been displaced.

Officials from the new caretaker administration have warned of widespread starvation if food aid does not arrive soon, according to humanitarian officials briefed on their assessments.

A letter from a Catholic church official in the town of Adigrat, dated January 5 and seen by AFP, says residents have run out of food, water and medicine and are living without electricity and other basic services.

“It is a daily reality to hear people dying from the fighting consequences, lack of food, insulin & other basic medicines,” the letter reads.

Government statements about the conflict have recently focused on TPLF leaders who have been killed or captured.

William Davison, the ICG’s Ethiopia analyst, said this could complicate the caretaker administration’s efforts to win over Tigrayans, raising questions about Abiy’s long-term strategy.

“From the outset of the conflict,” Davison said, “the major challenge for the federal government has been how to defeat Tigray’s leadership without alienating the Tigrayan people.”

© 2021 AFP

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 60 – 19 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 18 January)

● Reported from Somalia “that 1000 (young) soldiers are missing (presumed dead). Parents are now planning to organize protests.” A report circulating from a Somali MP speaks of 3,000 Somali troops participating in Ethiopia’s Tigray war. The troops were sent to Asmara in Eritrea to receive training. According to one report only 180 of them survived. It is reported that one of them contacted his family from Mekelle, saying that he was injured in the war.

● Former head of intelligence in Somalia, Abdisalem Guled, states in the Garowe Online that young men were taken from Mogadishu, Somalia, last year and flown to Asmara, Eritrea, where they received training and these soldiers were used to front the war in Tigray.

● Abdisalem Guled reports that 370 of the Somali soldiers, who were involuntarily conscripted in the front engaging in the war in Tigray, died.

● Video distributed of mothers in Somalia who are in shock to find that youth who disappeared were found in the war in Tigray. Desperate mothers protest in Galkayo Town, Somalia, demanding answers to the whereabouts of their missing children, unknown to them, taken to Eritrea for military training and then deployed and killed in the Tigray War. Some of the children are as young as 14 years. (independently confirmed).

● Federal Ethiopian military movements from Gonder areas towards the Tekeze area. Between yesterday and today around 67 trucks full of military personnel were reported to be passing through.

● Increasing concerns expressed at high political levels in the region that Ethiopia is falling apart and on the brink of a civil war.

● Beginning of confrontation in Kilil, Somalia, this morning in Gabri Dahar, the stronghold of the Ogaden National Liberation Front, ONLF, between the troops of the president of the Kilil and the ONLF, reporting several deaths and injuries on both sides. The president of Kilil has the total support of the Amharas (Ethiopia).

● General Birhanu Jula Gelalcha, the chief of general staff of Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the president of Oromia state Shimelis Abdisa held a closed-door meeting with President Farmaajo of Somalia on 15/1.

● Reported that ENDF allied forces were destroyed by Tigray regional forces at Sero, Eastern zone while heading to Adigrat from Adwa via Enticho. 10 orals destroyed; 4 small military cars, one ZU-23, many machine guns were taken and an unknown number of soldiers were captured.

● The Prime Minister of Sudan, Hamdok, says that the lives of 20 million Sudanse is threatened by the GERD Dam as their lives depend on the Blue Nile.

● Sudanese media reports that Ethiopian militias have killed 2 Sudanese shepherds in Gallabat, Gedaref State. A local mayor claims the militias stole around 250 sheep.

● Sudanese media reports Eritrean troops armed with heavy weapons have entered ENDF controlled areas of Wadi al Ghurab and Birkat Noreen inside the disputed Al-Fashaga Triangle. It is said they entered Ethiopia from Humera and crossed into Sudan via Abdurafi.

● Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) handed over eight soldiers to Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) who were captured during border clashes last December. The handover took place in the border area near Gallabat.

● Reported that an Eritrean gunship helicopter has been shot down by Tigray regional forces at Rama front near Enda Semere area.

● Videos circulating of ENDF troops arrested by Tigray regional forces in Edaga Arbi.

● Pictures circulating of ENDF and Eritrean troops. Eritrean troops are recognisable by the typical Eritrean plastic or rubber sandals, ‘congos’, or ‘shida’, desert sand colored uniform or olive colored guerilla styled camouflage uniform, no insignias, no identification as Eritrean. Ethiopian soldiers are wearing boots, country flag, rank and insignias on their uniforms and place for identification and have a different camouflage shading.

● The United Nations and other agencies are rushing to relocate thousands of refugees camped out along the disputed Sudan-Ethiopia border to safer areas further away.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 18 January)

● The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) is monitoring the situation in Tigray and carried out two field visits.

● The EHRC found that in Humera 92 people died, including civilians. Residents of Humera report “widespread looting of houses and businesses, by a youth group calling itself “Fano”, some members of the Amhara Liyu Hayl (Amhara Special Force) and Amhara Militia, a few members of the Ethiopian Defense Force, and some Eritrean soldiers. Looters have also emptied food and grain storages.”

● EHRC concludes that “In all four visited areas of Humera, Dansha, Bissober and Ullaga, residents consistently regret the continued lack of security. People of Tigray ethnic origin residing in Dansha and Humera faced harassment. The fact that justice sector bodies have not resumed their regular operations only adds to residents’ sense of insecurity and escalates the risk of human rights abuses.”

● The EHRC finds that “It is therefore imperative for the government to restore security in these areas and take the necessary measures to ensure the protection of the community.”

● The EHRC concludes that “The crimes allegedly committed by some members of security forces in the areas included in this report need to be investigated and perpetrators held to account.”

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 18 January)

● Africa Minister say UK Government is ”gravely concerned over allegations of atrocities and violations” in Tigray but it’s “the UK’s longstanding position that determining whether a situation amounts to genocide is an issue for competent national and international courts, not governments”

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/ex-spy-chief-claims-hundreds-of-somali-soldiers-killed-in-tigray-region

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1X9iK4jPtdgREXCfS1UJ1MhrkuvWhwNjl/view

https://www.davidalton.net/2021/01/18/january-18th-africa-minister-say-uk-government-is-gravely-concerned-over-allegations-of-atrocities-and-violat ions-in-tigray-but-its-the-uks-longstanding-position-that-determining/

https://www.voanews.com/africa/un-rushing-relocate-ethiopian-refugees-away-sudanese-border

https://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article70346

Hundreds of Somali soldiers killed in Tigray war

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Suna Times – Former deputy head of Somalia’s Intelligence Agency Abdisalan Guled said hundreds of Somali recruits deployed by Eritrea to Tigray region were killed in the initial offensive in the northern Ethiopian region.

Former deputy head of the Somali Intelligence Agency (NISA) Abdisalan Guled, in an interview with Kulmiye radio based in Mogadishu, stated that he received information saying that 370 Somali recruits trained by Eritrea had been killed in the recent war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

“Following an investigation and contacts I made with different people, it was confirmed that 4000 Somali soldiers participated in Tigray war, who were fighting alongside Ethiopian and Eritrean forces against the TPLF,” said Abdisalan Guled.

“I was shocked when I was told that nearly 400 of those Somali recruits trained by Eritrea were killed and hundreds more were wounded [in Tigray war], and those wounded were returned to Eritrea.”

Abisalan Guled citing Ethiopian military sources told Kulmiye radio that “only a few men have survived from recruits numbered between 900 and 1100 who had been deployed on just one frontline, nearly all of them were killed,”

Speaking further, Mr Guled said he was told that the Somali recruits thrown into the battle were led by Eritrean military officers.

“When i asked the officers, they told me that Somalia had signed agreement with Ethiopia and Eritrea that required Farmajo [Somalia’s president] to prepare Somali troops who would take part in the stabilization of Tigray, which he accepted,”

The former deputy head of the Somali Intelligence Services said president Farmajo had requested his Eritrean counterpart not to return those soldiers to their country if he does not win reelection.

“I have heard two days ago that president Farmajo said ‘those soldiers should not be returned home, if I win reelection the matter will be discussed with me, if I don’t return, it will be dealt with those in power but during this sensitive election time I should not be given information on whether they are alive or dead’.”

–
Alternative Sources:

Exclusive: Hundreds of Somali Troops Used as Cannon Fodder in Ethiopia’s Tigray War

‘Nearly 400’ Somalia army soldiers killed in Tigray war: Ex-deputy Spy Chief

Sudan demands Ethiopia withdraw its forces from ‘occupied territories’ and halt military buildup

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AMN NEWS | On Sunday evening, the Sudanese Security and Defense Council appealed to Ethiopia to “withdraw its forces from the remaining positions it still occupies in Maraghad, Khor Hamar and Ghatar as soon as possible in compliance with international treaties and the sustainability of good-neighborly relations.”

The Sudanese Defense Minister, Lieutenant General Yassin Ibrahim Yassin, stated that “the council was informed of the developments on the eastern borders,” saying that “despite the military mobilization and build-up carried out by Ethiopia in the areas facing our forces in Al-Fashaqa, we confirm that our forces will remain in their lands in order to preserve sovereignty stipulated in the charters and agreements that affirm Sudan’s entitlement,” the Sudanese News Agency (SUNA) reported.

During his meeting with Tut Qalwak, advisor to the President of Southern Sudan, Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok announced Khartoum’s approval of Juba’s mediation to resolve the border dispute with Ethiopia, which has worsened in recent weeks between Sudan and Ethiopia.

On Saturday, Al-Burhan stated that “the conflict with Ethiopia is old and the neighbors attacked Sudanese farmers and seized their lands for decades,” adding that “recognizing the Sudanese areas in which the Sudanese army has recently deployed removes obstacles to relations between the two countries.”

U.S. military completes removal of troops from Somalia

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Global News – AP |  Cara Anna 

The U.S. military says its troop withdrawal from Somalia is complete, in one of the last actions of President Donald Trump’s presidency.

Some experts have warned that the withdrawal of an estimated 700 U.S. military personnel comes at the worst possible time for Somalia, as the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab extremist group improves its bomb-making skills and continues to attack military and civilian targets even in the capital, Mogadishu. The withdrawal comes less than a month before Somalia is set to hold a national election.

The U.S. personnel trained and supported Somali forces, including its elite special forces, in counter-terror operations. They are being moved to other African countries such as neighbouring Kenya and Djibouti, home of the only permanent U.S. military base in Africa, but U.S. Africa Command spokesman Col. Chris Karns would not say how many are going where.

Asked whether the administration of President-elect Joe Biden will reverse the withdrawal, Karns replied in an email: “It would be inappropriate for us to speculate or engage in hypotheticals.”

Karns said the operation enters its “next phase of periodic engagement with Somali security forces.” He would not go into details.

The withdrawal was announced late last year, with a Jan. 15 deadline. The U.S. military, which has carried out a growing number of airstrikes against al-Shabab and a small band of fighters linked to the Islamic State group during Trump’s administration, says it will continue to pressure al-Shabab. The extremist group has an estimated 5,000 to 10,000 fighters.

Those Somali forces, even U.S. assessments have said, are not ready to take over responsibility for the country’s security, especially as a 19,000-strong multinational African Union force is also set to withdraw by the end of this year.

The U.S. Africa Command commander, Gen. Stephen Townsend, noted “no serious injuries or significant loss of equipment, despite significant efforts to target us by al-Shabab” during the “intense” operation to remove the U.S. personnel.

Townsend on Saturday visited Manda Bay in Kenya, where the U.S. Africa Command said “substantial enhancements have been made to physical security” after a deadly al-Shabab attack a year ago destroyed U.S. aircraft used against it in Somalia.