Ethiopia’s government appears to be wielding hunger as a weapon – Famine crimes

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The Economist | A rebel region is being starved into submission

Ethiopia has suffered famines in the past. Many foreigners know this; in 1985 about one-third of the world’s population watched a pop concert to raise money for starving Ethiopians. What is less well understood is that poor harvests lead to famine only when malign rulers allow it. It was not the weather that killed perhaps 1m people in 1983-85. It was the policies of a Marxist dictator, Mengistu Haile Mariam, who forced peasants at gunpoint onto collective farms. Mengistu also tried to crush an insurgency in the northern region of Tigray by burning crops, destroying grain stores and slaughtering livestock. When the head of his own government’s humanitarian agency begged him for cash to feed the starving, he dismissed him with a memorably callous phrase: “Don’t let these petty human problems…consume you.”

Things were supposed to be different under Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian prime minister who was hailed as a reformer when he took charge in 2018, and who won the Nobel peace prize the following year. Yet once again it looks as if hunger is being used as a weapon in Africa’s second-most-populous nation. And once again the scene of the horror is Tigray. Since fighting broke out in November between federal forces and those of Tigray’s rebellious former ruling party, perhaps 2m out of 6m Tigrayans are thought to have fled their homes. Many could now starve because the government has let so little food into the region (see article).

Aid agencies guess that between 2m and 4.5m people need urgent assistance. They cannot be more precise because the phone networks are down and the government has barred reporters from entering Tigray. The few who make it in return with horrifying accounts of ethnic killings, mass rapes—and starvation.

Plenty of food is available. Charities and un agencies have been trying to get supplies through for months. But Ethiopia’s Orwellian Ministry of Peace has sent them on a paperchase for permits. “For more than two months there has been essentially no access to Tigray,” says Mark Lowcock, the un’s humanitarian chief. “There are 450 tonnes of supplies we’ve been trying to get in that are stuck.” On those occasions when the federal government grants permission for an aid lorry to pass, it is typically stopped en route by regional governments, which insist that they, too, need to give permission, or halted by troops inside Tigray. Meanwhile there are credible reports of government forces or their allies killing livestock and burning crops. If true, both the perpetrators and those who gave the orders are guilty of war crimes.

Abiy insists that his troops are respecting humanitarian law. The conflict is not a civil war, but a mere police action, he claims. His government claims that restrictions on aid workers are for their own safety. Few believe him. Moreover, many observers fear that the fighting has grown too complex for the government to control. Troops from neighbouring Eritrea have joined the fray, as have militias from a rival ethnic group, the Amharas.

Outsiders should press all parties to let civilians eat. Josep Borrell, the eu’s foreign-policy chief, has suspended €88m ($107m) of budget support until aid agencies are given access to Tigray. This is a good first step. Others, such as America and Britain, should add financial pressure. Ethiopia is desperately short of foreign currency, and depends on loans and grants from the imf and World Bank. Until its government allows food into Tigray, donors should not give it another dollar.

Ethiopia Denies Somalia Forces Involved in Fighting in Tigray

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Bloomberg | By Simon Marks and Mohammed Omar Ahmed

  • Somali lawmaker has asked president to investigate issue
  • Claim follows reports that Eritrea forces deployed in Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s government denied that Somali soldiers fought alongside federal troops in the ongoing conflict in its Tigray region.

The head of Somalia’s parliamentary committee on foreign affairs on Jan. 18 asked Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed to investigate complaints by family members that their sons had gone missing while fighting in Ethiopia. Somalia’s former deputy spy chief said in an interview this week with local broadcaster GoobJoog TV that hundreds of Somali soldiers may have died in the clashes.

The use of Somali troops would provide more evidence that the war in Tigray, which the Ethiopian government has characterized as a domestic issue, has grown into a regional confrontation. Tigray’s leaders last year alleged that troops from neighboring Eritrea were also involved in the conflict, prompting the U.S. to call for their withdrawal.

“We have seen reports about Eritrean troops that have crossed into Ethiopia,” Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti said in a statement. “We are also witnessing similar reports about Somalian soldiers participating in the same campaign. Both of these claims are false and unfounded.”

Regional Ties

The involvement of Somali troops, if confirmed, could stem from a tripartite accord signed between the leaders of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea in 2018 aimed at strengthening regional security and economic ties, said Omar Mahmood, a senior Somalia analyst for the International Crisis Group.

“One outgrowth of this has been the Eritrean training of Somali troops,” Mahmood said. “It is these troops that are now alleged to have been present during the fighting in Tigray, and suffered high casualties.”

Somali Information Minister Osman Dubbe told reporters in Mogadishu earlier that reports of its fighters going missing were “fabricated” for political reasons. Somalia is preparing to hold presidential elections next month.

The Ethiopian government and the dissident Tigray People’s Liberation Front have been at war since Nov. 4. Many of the TPLF’s senior leaders are still at large, though several key members of the party — including four of its nine-member executive committee — have been either captured or killed in the past two weeks.

The conflict has threatened to spill into neighboring Sudan. Earlier this month, it and Ethiopia traded accusations of breaching each other’s border, leading to deadly clashes around al-Fashqa, an area of fertile farming land that straddles the two nations.

U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, speaking Thursday during a trip to Sudan for talks with the transitional government, called for the two countries to avoid escalating tensions. He’s due in Ethiopia later in the day.

— With assistance by Michael Gunn

Ethiopia operating Chinese mobile bridges

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Source: Defence Web

Ethiopia’s military appears to have acquired a number of mobile bridges from China.

Photos posted on Twitter last month show at least three truck-mounted mobile bridges being transported along a road in Ethiopia.

They appear to be Norinco GQL-111 scissor-type bridges transported and launched over the rear of an 8×8 cross-country truck chassis.

According to Jane’s International Defence Review, the GQL-111 is conceptually similar to the Russian TMM-6 heavy bridge building system. A single section can be used to span a gap of up to 15 metres. A complete set of five can span a gap of 75 metres.

The GQL-111 can be used to span wet and dry gaps, with each scissors bridge having an adjustable leg that can be extended to 5.5 metres below. It can also be used with pontoons to enable wider rivers to be crossed, Jane’s reported.

The GQL-111 bridge can handle tracked armoured fighting vehicles) up to 50 tonnes and wheeled vehicles with a maximum axle weight of 13 tonnes. A later version is also referred to as the 60T Modified Heavy Mechanized Bridge; its capacity increased to 60 tones.

The 8×8 bridge-laying vehicle weights 30.8 tons and can erect a single span in 11 minutes.

The GQL-111 is in widespread service with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. It has also been exported to the Peruvian armed forces and apparently Myanmar.

The acquisition appears to be one of few in recent years by Ethiopia. In 2019 the country received several Pantsyr-S1 air defence systems from Russia and six G-120TP trainers from Germany. Other recent acquisitions include a donated C-130E Hercules transport from the United States and 75 Thunder armoured personnel carriers from Israel.

Western concern mounts over Ethiopian crisis

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©FT | UK, US and EU push for humanitarian relief to get to the war-ravaged Tigray region

Ethiopia’s reputation is “being tarnished” by the military conflict, UK foreign secretary Dominic Raab has said, ahead of his visit to the east African country on Friday to urge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to allow unrestricted humanitarian access to the Tigray region.

Mr Raab has joined a chorus of senior western diplomats, including US secretary of state nominee Antony Blinken and the EU minister for foreign affairs Josep Borrell, who have all expressed concern about the humanitarian situation in the war-ravaged northern region.

“Until this conflagration, [Ethiopia] has had a, if you like, a reputation as a beacon, and of course it’s being tarnished. There’s no doubt, there’s no escaping it. I want to talk to Prime Minister Abiy. But above all, what we want to focus on right now is getting humanitarian relief,” Mr Raab told the Financial Times during the first leg of a tour that will take him to Sudan and Ethiopia, where aid agencies have expressed concerns about limited access to impoverished Tigray.

Addis Ababa launched a military campaign on November 4 against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the movement that governed Ethiopia for almost three decades until Mr Abiy took office in 2018, seeking to push through liberal economic reforms. Saying the offensive was a response to TPLF attacks on federal forces in the Tigrayan capital Mekelle, Mr Abiy — who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 — launched “a law enforcement” operation that included air strikes and ground troops.

While the government has declared the war over, the conflict in Tigray has exposed ethnic faultlines, with ethnic-motivated attacks still being reported in parts of Ethiopia, and tens of thousands of refugees heading across the border into Sudan. Western donors say the delivery of humanitarian aid has been hindered by ongoing bouts of violence.

In a US Senate hearing this week Mr Blinken said that “we have seen a number of deeply, deeply concerning atrocities directed at both people in Tigray, directed at Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia, I think we need to see much greater access to the region, accountability . . . we need to see restoration of communications, we need to see access for humanitarian assistance in the region”.

“The situation on the ground goes well beyond a purely internal ‘law and order’ operation,” Mr Borrell said last week, freezing €88m in budget support for Ethiopia, until aid agencies were granted better access to the region.

“We receive consistent reports of ethnic-targeted violence, killings, massive looting, rapes, forceful returns of refugees and possible war crimes,” he said. “More than two million people have been internally displaced. And while people are in dire need of aid, access to the affected region remains limited, which makes it very difficult to deliver humanitarian assistance.”

There have been recent reports of “additional military incursions”, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi, said last week. These were “consistent with open source satellite imagery showing new fires burning and other fresh signs of destruction” at two camps hosting nearly 100,000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray, who have fled Eritrea over the years, he said.

Some Eritrean refugees were being forced to return to the repressive state, he added, amid growing reports of involvement of Eritrean forces, a longstanding enemy of the TPLF, in the Tigray conflict. “Clear evidence exists,” said a senior US diplomat, “of Eritrean direct involvement.”

Ethiopia’s government said this week that it had been working with humanitarian agencies to deliver aid to 1.8m people.

Britain understands Sudan’s position on Ethiopia dam negotiations, says ambassador

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MEMO | The UK Ambassador to Sudan, Irfan Siddiq, said on Tuesday that his country understands Sudan’s position on the negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Anadolu News Agency reported.

Mr. Siddiq added during a meeting in Khartoum with the Sudanese Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources, Dr Yasir Mohamed, that London would support the dam negotiations until Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt reach a satisfactory agreement, the Sudanese Irrigation Ministry said in a statement.

Last week, the Sudanese Foreign Minister, Omar Qamar al-Din announced that his country had submitted a list of conditions to the African Union before it returned to meaningful negotiations over the Renaissance Dam, noting that Khartoum was considering alternative options, which he did not clarify.

On 10 January, the Sudanese News Agency reported that the meeting of ministers of foreign affairs and irrigation of Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia have failed to reach an acceptable formula to continue negotiations on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

For nine years, the three countries have been locked in stalled negotiations over the dam.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 62 – 21 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 20 January)

● Journalist Dawit Kebede, who was working at Tigray TV and reported the fighterjet downed in Tembien by Tigray forces, has been killed. He was arrested earlier in Mekelle, subsequently released, but after three days killed together with the lawyer Adi Hawsi, in front of the UNICEF building on 19/1.

● An American witness, who was in Aksum during the war, reports that in Aksum water and electricity went out on November 2, prior to the start of hostilities on November 3 and 4. As a result people in Aksum did not see any news. A few days later people arrived from Humera. They told that they came because of the war, that their houses were destroyed, and people had been killed.

● The witness states that a few days later shooting started when Eritrean soldiers entered Aksum with tanks. They came in thousands and killed whoever stood in their way. There were dead bodies all over the city: “I had to step over dead bodies to get there. The entire city from the bus station to the park was covered in bodies.” Many civilians were killed when St. Michael church was shelled.

● The witness states that the Eritrean soldiers said they had been told to kill, to kill all Tigrayan males over the age of four. The soldiers said they were told to kill all males so that they would not come to take revenge in the future.

● According to the witness soldiers fired indiscriminately at anyone. They killed people without warning. People were not given any warning. The soldiers just fired on everything.

● The witness states that Eritrean troops killed Eritrean soldiers, priests, farmers, and burned crops. The Eritrean troops forced farmers and priests to slaughter their own animals and they killed the farmers if they refused to do so.

● The Eritrean soldiers stole medicine from health facilities and destroyed the infrastructure. They broke glass windows and stole everything.

● The witness states that she heard of old women and young girls being raped.

● According to the witness, people of Aksum sought refuge in the Mariam Zion Church.

● The witness states Eritrean soldiers were completely in charge of the situation in Aksum and that ENDF soldiers watched and did nothing to stop the violence and the killing. The ENDF soldiers were fired at if they tried to stop Eritrean soldiers who were looting.

● Refugees from Shemelba and Hitsats refugee camps report that there is nothing left of the two refugee camps after they have been looted and destroyed. Refugees have relocated to the two camps Adi Harush and May Ayni, or have traveled to Addis Ababa or other places where they feel more safe.

● The refugees report that the camps were first attacked by Eritrean soldiers who tried to take those who were wanted by the Eritrean government for political reasons and were sent back to Eritrea. Afterwards Tigrayan regional forces chased the Eritrean soldiers out.

●The refugees report that several refugees were killed and that refugees had been terrified. They had not had any food rations for 2-3 months. “We ate what we could find, even plants and leaves”.

● The refugees did not have difficulty passing through checkpoints on their way to Addis Ababa. But they had to pay much more than normal bus fare prices for the trip: 200 Birr from Shemelba to Shire, 1000 Birr from Shire to Mekelle, and 1500 Birr from Mekelle to Addis – per person.

● The Somali Federal Republic Federal Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation asks President Farmaajo to clarify the whereabouts of thousands of Somali soldiers trained in Eritrea. Ref 02/79/21, dated 18/01/2021.

● The Somali Parliament urges President Farmaajo to send a team to Asmara to confirm if the Somali soldiers are alive or dead. The report indicates that more than 2,800 of Somali soldiers were killed in the Tigray war.

● In a village in the Alitena region controlled by Eritreans, six men are killed. None of the six were armed or politically active. Alitena is a territory that the Eritrea Ethiopia Commission decided belongs to Ethiopia, therefore to Tigray regional state. Serious food shortages are reported in this region.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 20 January)

● Action Against Hunger’s (AAH) Ethiopia director Panos Navrozidis states: “Central Tigray is a black hole” as aid groups only have access to certain towns and many of the people are remaining within rural villages because of fear of fighting. They can not access food or health services.

● Tigray Water Resource Management Bureau stated that access to clean water in Tigray is jeopardized for many due to “damaged infrastructure, looted offices, stolen equipment and an inoperative dam.”

● Sihul Michael, Head of Tigray’s Prosperity Party sends out a letter from the Prosperity Party (PP) to new PP-members and former members of the TPLF on recruiting all ex-TPLF members to be PP members and to do all necessary surveillance regarding any kind of communication with TPLF. In case there are any cadres that look suspicious to the party, ‘all necessary measures’ must be taken against them as stated in a letter dated Nov 14, 2013. TPLF members are forced to become a member of the PP.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 20 January)

● Mr. Dina Mufti, of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, denies allegations that Eritrean and Somali soldiers are among forces fighting in Tigray as baseless, speaking to the media today (20/11).

● Ethiopia disaster commission spokesman, Debebe Zewdie states that there is no starvation in Ethiopia.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 20 January)

● The nominee US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expresses concerns about the atrocities in Tigray and the fate of Eritrean refugees in Tigray senate confirmation hearing, on a question of Sen Coons.

● Nominee Blinken states the US needs to take an active approach, that access to the Tigray region is needed, provision of humanitarian assistance, accountability, restoration of communications, and an effort to put a dialogue in place to deal with the conflict and litigate it, and expressing concerns that the situation may destabilize the Horn of Africa.

● Blinken expresses the desire for active diplomatic engagement of the US in the conflict in Tigray.

● Lord Alton asks the UK government what steps are taken to ensure that eye witness statements are taken from refugees from Tigray about reports of war crimes and crimes against humanity; how any such evidence is preserved; and what plans there are to put judicial justice in place.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Ethiopians dying, hungry and fearful in war-hit Tigray: agencies

Ethnic conflict could unravel Ethiopia’s valuable garment industry

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Source: The Conversation | Dorothee Baumann-Pauly

Ethiopia has long been considered one of Africa’s economic wunderkinds. Until recently, it had relative political stability in comparison to other countries on the continent. And, with an average GDP growth rate of 10% in the past decade and a government that instituted policies friendly to foreign investors, the country was able to attract South and East Asian clothing manufacturers. These sell to international brands, such as Decathlon and H&M.

But, for the past two months, violent conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region fuelled by ethnic power politics has threatened the country’s stability. According to the International Crisis Group, the violence has likely killed thousands of people, including many civilians, displaced more than a million people internally, and led some 50,000 to flee to Sudan.

The scale of the conflict could scare off foreign investment in the country’s garment industry. This sector is hugely important to Ethiopia, which aimed to propel its agricultural economy toward a more prosperous future built on providing clothing to consumers in the West.

While the Ethiopian textile and garment industry is still small – its export share is not more than 10% of total exports, and its products only represent 0.6% of total GDP – the sector was expected to grow by around 40% a year in the next few years.

In March 2019, I assessed Ethiopia’s garment industry alongside two colleagues from the New York University’s Stern Center for Business and Human Rights. We wanted to see whether Ethiopia – as the new frontier of garment manufacturing – had learnt from mistakes in other sourcing countries. We analysed the industry’s prospects and the working conditions with a close look at the flagship Hawassa Industrial Park. This is a vast and still only partly filled facility, which currently employs 25,000 workers about 225km south of the capital of Addis Ababa.

What we found was sobering.

Manufacturers told us about the many challenges of doing business in Ethiopia. These included bureaucratic and logistical hurdles and the problems that come with an unskilled workforce that had no prior experience of working in an industrial setting.

Workers reported that they could barely survive with their base monthly wage as low as US$26. The government’s eagerness to attract foreign investment led it to promote the lowest base wage in any garment-producing country.

In addition to this already-strained business context, the report we published points to what we saw as the greatest challenge of all: ethnic tensions.

In Hawassa, ethnic tension erupted in July 2019 and caused disruptions to the industrial park. The new conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region could be the tipping point for foreign investors in the garment industry. Manufacturers had told us that further political instability in the country could jeopardise all future business.

The collapse of this sector would be disastrous. Tens of thousands of people would lose their jobs and the investments made in this enterprise wasted. In addition, foreign investors and the Ethiopian government need to understand that its collapse could have a symbolic knock-on effect in the region – Ethiopia’s garment sector is often seen as a pioneering experiment proving that structural transformation in Africa is possible.

Unmet promises

Garment manufacturers were already struggling to do business. We found that workers, unhappy with their working conditions and pay, were increasingly willing to protest by stopping work or even quitting. Attrition was high, and production was low.

There are also problems with raw materials, almost all of which need to be imported into Ethiopia from India or China. The government advertised the availability of more than 3 million hectares for cash crops, including cotton cultivation in 2010. In fact, only about 60,000 hectares were being used by 2019 to grow cotton, and that figure is falling as local farmers switch to sugar, sesame, and other more lucrative cash crops.

Ethnic tensions disrupted factory operations further. When Abiy Ahmed took over as Prime Minister in 2018, his reforms – which aimed to create a more ethnically inclusive government – unsettled the ruling coalition and opened a political space for ethnic tensions to resurface. For instance, in Hawassa, a group of the Sidama people – who are the majority ethnic group in the Hawassa state – pushed for independence in 2019.

The political uncertainty due to ethnic tensions translates into economic uncertainty for investors.

In Hawassa, security concerns emerged for local workers and foreign staff. Night shifts had to be cancelled so that workers could get home safely before nightfall. Political demonstrations at the park’s fence and within the park disrupted production. Sidama people also mobilised within factories and demanded more jobs for their people resulting in short strikes and occasional park-wide closings.

Such disruptions are a wild card beyond the control of investors, which may set back further investments.

By a thread

When the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in early 2020, the sector was hanging by a thread. In June 2020, the International Labour Organisation published a report, which described reduced orders and a situation for workers even more perilous than before.

By the end of 2020, many of the over 60,000 garment workers in Ethiopia had lost their jobs or were too afraid to return to work, fearing they would catch the coronavirus.

The current ethnic conflict could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. For instance, the industrial park in Mekelle built for 20,000 workers – and with an occupancy in 2020 of around 3,500 workers – is currently closed. The current internet and phone blackout in the Tigray region now also makes any communication between buyers and the factories impossible.

A worsening human rights situation creates reputational and operational risks for investors and buyers. It increases uncertainty over the ability to complete orders and ship them on time. It also increases security risks for staff and workers. This may all cause long-lasting damage to investor confidence and the opportunity for sustainable economic development.

What must change

To assure investors, buyers, and international stakeholders, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed needs to end the blackout in the Tigray region, better protect journalists and civilians, and allow for independent human rights monitors to assess conditions.

At this critical moment, clothing companies and manufacturers invested in Ethiopia need to double down on their commitments to business in Ethiopia. This means they need to stay in the country and speak up to support human rights.

Once ethnic tensions are defused, more work will still need to be done by both the government and foreign manufacturers to strengthen the sector. This includes developing a domestic supply chain and establishing a minimum wage that ensures decent living conditions for workers.

But first, the future of the industry must be secured.

Ethiopians Flex Military Muscle During Orthodox Epiphany Holiday

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© 2021 AFP

Outside a centuries-old stone church in the northern Ethiopian city of Gondar, a drama troupe performed skits hailing the military defeat of the former leaders of the country’s Tigray region.

As rifle-toting actors danced around chanting actresses, an audience cheered when the troupe denounced the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as a band of “traitors”.

The performance was part of festivities marking the Orthodox Christian holiday of Epiphany, known as Timkat in Ethiopia, which commemorates Jesus’s baptism in the River Jordan.

In a typical year, Timkat in Gondar is a sunny, lighthearted affair, capped by a ceremony at 17th-century stone baths — built during the time of Emperor Fasilides — in which thousands of worshippers and tourists dive into holy water.

The event is a main driver of tourism in Gondar, the former seat of Ethiopia’s royal empire, and in 2019 it earned a spot on UNESCO’s list of Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity.

This year, however, is hardly typical for Ethiopia: The country is grappling with the conflict in Tigray as well as persistent ethnic violence in other regions and, most recently, simmering tensions along the border with Sudan.

The crises have inspired some officials and ordinary Ethiopians to turn the event into a celebration of military might, using public statements and performances to project strength and issue warnings to would-be enemies.

Even the official slogan of this year’s celebration — “Ethiopia’s Rebirth at Gondar’s Timkat” — is a reference to the Tigray conflict, which officials term a “law-enforcement operation”.

“It is talking about Ethiopia’s renaissance, especially because of what the government is achieving with the law-enforcement operation,” Gondar’s mayor, Molla Melkamu, said of the slogan.

“It means that for Ethiopians, this is a new beginning.”

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, announced the military operations in Tigray in early November, saying they were in response to TPLF-orchestrated attacks on federal army camps.

By the end of the month, federal forces had entered the Tigray capital Mekele and Abiy was declaring victory, though TPLF leaders remain on the run and fighting has continued.

In Gondar, located in the Amhara region south of Tigray, the conflict has spotlighted long-running animosity towards the TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy took office in 2018.

After the fighting broke out, Gondar resident Tesfahun Mande grabbed a rifle and rushed to the front, determined to help reclaim land that many Amharas, members of Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group, accuse the TPLF of seizing when they came to power in the early 1990s.

“When we went there, we were very joyful,” Tesfahun told AFP, describing his time in battle.

“Even the dead died smiling.”

Tesfahun held onto his rifle during Timkat this week, strolling through the streets of Gondar yelling chants in praise of Amhara fighters who took on the TPLF.

A nighttime poetry reading organised in Gondar in the lead-up to Timkat struck a triumphant note, with one man drawing applause for the following lines:

“Oh, the time has come/ The people who are being pushed are now standing/ The people who were doing the pushing are now down.”

The Tigray offensive was not the only conflict invoked by worshippers during this year’s Timkat.

At a five-kilometre fun-run earlier this week, several participants carried signs imploring officials to “pay attention to Metekel”, an area of western Ethiopia where hundreds — including many Amharas — have died in recent grisly attacks on civilians.

Abiy’s government has failed to stem the violence or explain who is behind it.

But Amhara politicians see it as an attempt to drive ethnic Amharas out of Metekel and are calling for federal military intervention.

Tegenu Guadie, a 26-year-old student from Metekel, spotlighted that appeal during Gondar’s main Timkat procession Monday, which saw priests escort cloaked tabots — replicas of the Ark of the Covenant — amid a riot of song, dance and prayer.

“The Metekel issue is very worrying. People are chased out of their homes and are being killed,” Tegenu said, arguing that the situation called for “military” force.

As crowds gathered Tuesday morning at Fasiledes’ Bath, priests tried to keep the focus squarely on religion, singing hymns, burning incense and reading Bible verses describing Jesus’s baptism.

Emerging in his underwear from his short swim in the holy water, 24-year-old Gondar resident Getenet Mekuant said that was as it should be, stressing he was there “for religion, not politics”.

Yet politics and conflict were never far from officials’ minds.

“As we celebrate this year’s Timkat, we think about those who gave their lives in the law enforcement operation,” Amhara regional president Agegnehu Teshager said in remarks delivered from the water’s edge.

“We also think,” he added, “about those who were killed or chased from their homes because of their ethnic identity.”

Sudan calls on Ethiopia to withdraw its forces from the disputed Al-Fashaqa region

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Source: Ecofin Agency |

Following an emergency meeting of its Security and Defense Council on Jan 17, Sudan called on the Ethiopian government to withdraw its forces from the Al-Fashaqa region, which the two countries have been disputing on for years.

“Despite the military mobilization and build-up carried out by Ethiopia in the areas facing our forces in Al-Fashaqa, we confirm that our forces will remain in their lands to preserve sovereignty stipulated in the charters and agreements that affirm Sudan’s entitlement,” Sudanese Defense Minister Lieutenant General Yassin Ibrahim Yassin said in a press release.

He called on Ethiopia to “withdraw its forces from the remaining positions it still occupies in Maraghad, Khor Hamar, and Ghatar (in the Al-Fashaqa region, ed) as soon as possible in compliance with international treaties and the sustainability of good-neighborly relations.”

The battle between the two countries over this region, inhabited by Ethiopian farmers (who operate land claimed by Sudan), has sharply increased in recent weeks. On Thursday, Sudanese authorities banned flights over the border area after declaring that an Ethiopian military plane had violated Sudanese airspace in a “dangerous and unjustified escalation.” The allegations were denied on Friday by the Ethiopian army chief of staff, General Berhanu Gula.

Last week, Sudan claimed at least five people died in border attacks by Ethiopian government-backed militias and that it will use all “available means” to respond. Earlier in December, Sudan accused Ethiopian “forces and militias” of ambushing Sudanese troops along the border, killing four people and wounding more than 20. The incident resulted in a large number of Sudanese military backups being sent to the border with Ethiopia to “recover land usurped by Ethiopian militias.”

Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan, Chairman of the Sovereignty Council of Sudan, said on Saturday his country did not mean to start a war with Ethiopia and has no interest in doing so. Sudan just wants to protect its border rights.

In a press conference on Friday, the Ethiopian army chief of staff also said Addis Ababa has no interest in going to war with Sudan. He added that if the Ethiopian army went to war, “we would not hide.”

The commander of the Ethiopian army added that a small group within the Sudanese government is working for the benefit of a third party and is standing behind the incursions.

The Al-Fashaqa region borders the Tigray region of Ethiopia where the Ethiopian government has been waging a military campaign against the TPLF since November; a conflict that has led to the exodus of more than 45,000 Ethiopian refugees to Sudan, according to the United Nations.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 61 – 20 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 19 January)

● Reported that 9.2% or about 65,000 children under five years of age in Tigray are suffering from acute nutritional deficiency such as wasting.

● Reported that 5 families have been found dead of starvation in Erop, Eastern part of Tigray.

● A video and pictures have emerged showing the extent of the damage Eritrea and Ethiopian forces caused to Cherkos Church in Zalanbesa, Tigray. The church was carved during the 5th century. It appears bombed and looted and one side is completely destroyed.

● More pictures coming out from Wukro, 40 km from Mekelle showing buildings, hotels, shops, banks and cars heavily destroyed, allegedly by Eritrean and ENDF allied forces.

● Osman Abukar Dubbe, Minister of Information from Somalia, denies reports that Somali soldiers took part in the conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. He states reports that hundreds of Somali soldiers were killed in the conflict is untrue.

● Other sources continue to stand by the story that Somali youth are fighting in Tigray. The reported number of soldiers that would have been sent to Tigray varies.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 19 January)

● The Electoral Board of Ethiopia states that it canceled the license of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Elections are due on 5 June. The TPLF held an election in Tigray on 9 Sept which the TPLF won.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 19 January)

● The European Union is sending the Finnish foreign minister Pekka Haavisto to negotiate with the Ethiopian government to open up a full access humanitarian corridor in Tigray. Pekka Havvisto intends to report back to the EU Council.

● The top priority of the EU is full humanitarian access: “International humanitarian law is not about giving access to government-controlled areas (..) International humanitarian law means giving access to all areas where people need us, and it’s very clear that this is not the case with the current agreement. We have told the Ethiopians that we stand ready to negotiate something different, but what is now on the table is not working.”

● UNHCR led the first humanitarian mission to the refugee camps Mai Aini and Adi Harush in Tigray and found thousands of Eritrean refugees in “desperate need” of supplies and services. Ethiopia granted UNHCR a one-time access to conduct a needs assessment, in the two camps. UNHCR did not receive authorisation to enter two other camps, believed to be under intense strain.

● A second EU official stated that the approach by the UN, based on the idea that some access was better than no access at all, had failed, and stated: “The government is still claiming that things are getting better, at least where they have control. It’s not true. It doesn’t work.”

● A spokesperson for the European Commission’s development department said Ethiopia will have to comply with the following conditions before the EU will disburse future budget support: “Granting full humanitarian access for relief actors to reach people in need in all affected areas, in line with International Humanitarian Law. Civilians must be able to seek refuge in neighboring countries. Ethnically targeted measures and hate speech must stop. Mechanisms to monitor human rights violations must be put in place to investigate allegations of breach of Human Rights. Communication lines and media access to Tigray should be fully re-established.”

● Reported that both the Ethiopian prime minister’s spokeswoman Billene Seyoum and Tigray’s interim Governor Mulu Nega are yet to respond to emailed queries seeking insight on the matter of humanitarian assistance reaching Tigray, Al Jazeera states.

● Mehari Taddele Maru, a professor at the European University Institute, alleged the refusal to allow unhindered access to the region was meant to keep news of starvation and abuses by state forces under the wraps. (AJ)

● Mehari Taddele Maru states that the “Deliberate obstruction of humanitarian access is a classic method of systematic starvation of people (..) Ethiopian government and Eritrean troops continue to obstruct access to humanitarian aid. The blanket continues and thus first-hand information is almost impossible to get. The restriction of information is in itself a crime of the state to hide other crimes.”

● Murithi Mutiga, Horn of Africa project director for the International Crisis Group comments on the looming famine: “In past conflicts, mass starvation in parts of Tigray has stiffened local resistance and led to prolonged conflict” (AJ)

● Murithi Mutiga states that “If the government is to be taken at its word that its campaign is aimed only at ousting the TPLF and not at harming the Tigrayan people, they should swiftly accede to the demands of humanitarian agencies for access to Tigray and even to areas TPLF forces may still control to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe.”

● Daniel Bekele, Ethiopia’s human rights commissioner, said greater access to media, human rights groups, and international organisations should be allowed and that civilian-military coordination was needed to smooth out hurdles in humanitarian access. ( 6/1, online briefing by the Geneva Press Club)

● The Sudanese government has launched an appeal to the international community to provide urgent aid and to increase support and contributions to help Ethiopian refugees who fled to eastern Sudan as a result of the fight in the Tigray region.

● Responding to the alleged attack on people at the Maryam Zion Church in Aksum, Michael Gervers, professor of history, University of Toronto, states: “The government and the Eritreans want to wipe out the Tigrayan culture. (..) The looting is about destroying and removing the cultural presence of Tigray.”

● Canada expresses concern of the humanitarian situation in Tigray, the situation of refugees and the “continued barriers to humanitarian access”. The Government of Canada states that the “protection of civilians must be upheld in accordance with international law & humanitarian principles”.

● Diaspora kids from Tigray publish “A New Song” to stop the war in Tigray.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

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