Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 71 – 30 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 29 January)

● A source from Mekelle, Tigray, speaks of the difficulty of speaking about what is happening: “Our problem is that the value of life has become meaningless. When a single person dies, we feel all the pain. For some, it has become a matter of statistics. But here, we don’t know how to mourn and how to speak to a family where they have lost eight relatives.”

● The source describes a very depressing situation in the town due to the complete information shut-down. He has realised that “information is as important as food and water.” He states: “we don’t know who is creating information and it adds to demoralisation and intimidation”.

● The source lives near the Mekelle Ayder referral hospital. He says: I could see the pain in the eyes of the ENDF soldiers who used Ayder hospital as a camp.” Most of them are 18-19 years old. They have no hope. They know they may die soon. It is devastating for all the families of these young people.”

● The source explains that the Ethiopian federal troops were in Ayder hospital in the first week after ENDF had captured Mekelle. I went and saw around 500 ENDF soldiers with machine guns. I thought they came to protect us. But when Eritrean soldiers came they did nothing to protect the property.

● The source states: “Eritrean soldiers came with vehicles to take goods.” The soldiers were few. The source says that the elders asked the ENDF colonel at the hospital campus whether they would prohibit the looting and that they would follow orders from ENDF. The ENDF colonel said they had no mandate to tell Eritrean soldiers what to do. The elders then asked ENDF to give weapons to defend the hospital which is a public property of the Ethiopian government.”

● The source states ENDF could not help to protect the institution from the Ethiopian government. The information that the Eritrean soldiers were on their way to Ayder referral hospital went around very fast through the megaphone system. The elders instructed the community to block the road. “My house is ten minutes away from there and everything was blocked.” He concludes: the community protected Ayder hospital from major looting. They did the same for the Telecom (TV and satellites).

● “When I grew up, my mother never smiled”, says the source. “Now I have had the revelation to understand why. The experiences of war have made her afraid. A lot of pain may have taught her sadness. Now I have a young boy of three. I find that he can differentiate between a gunshot and a bomb and airstrike. We are passing this experience of war through the generations.”

● The source from Mekelle states: “The pain we must see is the bigger picture of all our Eritrean and Ethiopian brothers. The problem is a collective one of the whole region.”

● Eritrean I.D. cards have been distributed to citizens in Irob, Tigray, Ethiopia, confirms a source by phone from Sebe’a in Irob. He confirms that everything has been stolen. People only wear the clothes they wear. Many people have fled to the mountains and are hiding in caves. There is no food, no money. Two grandchildren of the source have been killed.

● Another source says that the Eritrean troops are looting blankets of farmers in rural areas around Tigray. When they do this they say: “you have taken us 20 years back in development. In return, we will take you (Tigrayans) 50 yrs back. You will know in the future that you will never be richer than Eritrea.” The source was in a village near Rama. He left for Addis and spoke by phone from there.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 29 January)

● A group of “Concerned Eritreans Regarding the Civil War in Ethiopia”, signed by Professor Emeritus Bereket Habte Selassie issues a statement. Dr. Selassie has held high-profile positions within Ethiopia, serving as Attorney General, Associate Justice of Ethiopia’s Supreme Court, Vice Minister of Interior, and Mayor of Harar. He was the Chairman of the Constitutional Commission in Eritrea after its independence in 1993 and the principal author of Eritrea’s constitution, which never came into effect.

● The group of Concerned Eritreans express their “grief over the Ethiopian civil war that on Nov. 4th started” and condemns “in the strongest possible terms the wanton killings, displacement, famine and distress that the Ethiopian Federal Government and its partners have since inflicted upon the civilian population of Tigray.” The Group states that “The Eritrean military is actively involved in the war on orders of President Isaias Afwerki and his close circle.”

● The Group expresses its duty “as citizens and as human beings to take a firm stand against role of the Eritrean military in subjecting the people of Tigray and Eritrean refugees in Tigray to conditions that led to killings, pillaging, sexual violence, destruction of heritage sites displacement.”

● The Groups strongly condemns “President Isaias Afwerki and his close circle for coercing Eritreans into causing death and destruction for the sole purpose of exacting personal vengeance.”

● The Group notes: President Isaias aims “to sow generational feud and hatred between Eritreans and their Tigrayan neighbors. We can only overcome such seeds of hatred with love, compassion and remorse, and hence we express our respect for and solidarity with the people of Tigray.”

● The Group states that “Soldiers of the Eritrean Defense Forces (irrespective of their ethnic roots) who have been designated to waste in this debacle are themselves victims of the repressive regime, and their commanders and the regime in Asmara bear primary responsibility for the violations that they endure and that they inflict. The United States has said that it has communicated directly to senior Eritrean officials that Eritrean soldiers must withdraw immediately from Tigray.”

● The Group strongly condemns “the hypocrisy of enforcing the strictest lockdown since April 2020 while sending citizens to battle. While most governments are working hard to combat the spread of COVID-19, President Isaias Afwerki has created a conducive environment for large-scale deaths by exposing Eritrean soldiers to mass-spread of the virus and battlefield deaths.”

● The Group calls “for the immediate and unconditional withdrawals of the Eritrean military from Tigray and Ethiopian forces from Eritrean territories. We urge the world community and international and regional organizations to pressure the Ethiopian federal government and President Isaias and his associates to end the war.”

● The Group calls “upon the international community to pressure the Ethiopian federal government to grant humanitarian access to Tigrayans and Eritrean refugees in the region, who are in dire need due to war-caused hunger and shortage of other basic necessities.”

● The Group calls upon the United Nations, U.N. Security Council, the African Union, the European Union, President Joe Biden’s administration and other partner countries to appoint an impartial body to investigate and bring the perpetrators to justice. The atrocities that are being committed in Tigray amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity and violate many international treaties and conventions that Eritrea and Ethiopia have signed.”

● The US has ‘directly’ pressured Eritrea to withdraw forces from Tigray.

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 70 – 29 January 20

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 28 January)

● Asmara is mobilising 200.000 fresh troops, assigned to travel from Eritrea to Tigray to fight, through both the Zalambesa & Rama border, for a “final offensive.” This ‘huge’ number “has been achieved by enlisting several categories of conscripts who might have previously been exempt. This includes women with very young children, retired soldiers and some children as young as 16.”

● It is reported that “the Eritrea plan is to finish off the Tigrayan resistance before international pressure forces the Ethiopian government to give access to Tigray for aid and reporters.”

● The Morning Star reports that a letter signed by a Prosperity Party representative, was leaked to them showing that Ethiopian government forces threatened to kill TPLF members if they refused to join the ruling Prosperity Party. Similar threats were made to journalist Dawit Kebede, just before he was shot.

● Human Rights Concern Eritrea (HRCE) received eye witness accounts of the killing of unarmed civilian refugees at the Eritrean refugee camp in Shimelba, Tigray. in Nov, two senior Eritrean military officers entered the camp and told refugees to return to Eritrea. The refugees refused, fearing for their lives.

● HRCE reports that subsequently eight Tigrayan civilians, suspected of supporting the TPLF, were brought into the camp and that they were executed in front of the refugees, to terrorise them. Four Eritrean refugees, from the Kunama tribe, were also killed by the Eritrean forces.

● As refugees were terrified by the executions, they were removed at gunpoint from the camp and marched to Sheraro, where they were loaded onto trucks and repatriated to Eritrea, states HRCE.

● HRCE reports that on the 23rd Nov armed militia started to shoot at refugees in the Hitsats Eritrean refugee camp in Tigray. Ten refugees died immediately; more than forty were wounded.

● On 5th Jan, Eritrean military forces ordered all refugees in the Hitsats camp to march on foot to Sheraro; pregnant women, children, elderly. There they were loaded on trucks and taken to Eritrea, states HRCE. The information was obtained from refugees who could escape and contacted HRCE.

● Shimelba and Hitsats camps are deserted and there have been fires, confirmed by satellite images.

● Eritrean troops allegedly killed more than 10 civilians in Idagahamus today.

● According to sources, Tigray forces killed more than 2000 ENDF allied forces at May Keyih area.

● Heavy fighting reported around Wukro and also in Tsigereda.

● A fourth video appears of civilians speaking about the atrocities and killing of civilians in Aksum on Nov 28-30th. In the video, some Eritrean soldiers deny the killing of civilians. One Eritrean soldier states that they were in Aksum and other towns and killed those suspected to be enemies.

● EriTV announced the death of senior Eritrean officer Colonel Girmay Gebreyesus.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 28 January)

● The Stop Slavery in Eritrea Campaign issues a statement against forced conscription in Eritrea, demanding protection of Eritrean refugees in Tigray; demands that Eritrea suspends forced conscripts and suspends all war activity, withdraws Eritrean troops from foreign territory; and asks all Eritrean conscripts to “defy orders to attack innocent civilians.

● Stop Slavery states that the UN Security Council must reinstate sanctions on President Esayas Afwerki and PFDJ officials, stating: “This is Isaias’ war, the same Isaias Afwerki found guilty of crimes against humanity, using forced conscripts under the indefinite national slavery program to wage war on Tigray and commit horrendous crimes – gross human rights violations to which Eritreans have been subjected to for decades – and now he is also allegedly unleashing on civilians in Tigray with impunity.”

● Stop Slavery states: “that many of the forced Eritrean conscripts are underaged girls and boys.”

● Stop Slavery demands an independent investigation in war crimes committed and that Eritrean and Ethiopian forces found guilty of war crimes to be taken to the International Criminal Court.

● Stop Slavery expresses deep concern “about reports of Eritrean refugees forcibly returned to Eritrea by the brutal regime they fled from.” The campaign urges UNHCR “to protect Eritrean refugees.”

● Stop Slavery states that it is inspired by Somali mothers demanding the return of their children, secretly recruited for the war in Tigray: “We are inspired by the courageous Somali mothers demanding the return of their children that have joined the war in Tigray.”

● Reuters has reported that Eritrea has secretly been recruiting Somali men and sending them to fight in TIgray. According to people interviewed, young men were recruited by the Somali Federal Government to work in Qatar, but instead were sent to Eritrea to serve in the military against their will.

● The young men were not told. One called home in November and said: “We were all shocked to land in Eritrea.” and “I have not seen food save a lump or slice of bread since I left Somalia in 2019.”

● Human Rights Concern Eritrea (HRCE) states that Eritrean military forces “consists mostly of young conscripts who have been forced to fight in Tigray against their will.”

● HRCE states that the UN Commission of Inquiry into Human Rights in Eritrea found “evidence of Crimes against Humanity” being committed in Eritrea and that Crimes against Humanity have been committed in Tigray. HRCE calls on the International Criminal Court to investigate these crimes immediately.

● Protests by Somali mothers asking where their children are, in Mogadishu, Guriel, and Galkayo.

● Somalia has admitted that it sent young recruits for training to Eritrea, according to Garowe online.

● The United States demanded that Eritrea leave Tigray immediately. The US calls for an independent and transparent investigation into the abuses in the region. The US Senate Foreign Affairs committee discussed the conflict in the Horn and Sudan.

● In Washington protest held demanding Eritrea leaves Tigray by Tigray and Eritrean protesters.

● In a new statement, UNICEF has said that 10% of the children below five are showing signs of severe malnutrition. This is above the WHO 3% emergency threshold.

● The Washington Post published an opinion asking whether PM Abiy is committing war crimes. The Post points to the many atrocities committed by Eritrean troops in the region. No action has been taken by the Abiy government despite many reports coming out of the region of massacres, rapes and looting.

● The Washington Post states that PM Abiy has been accused of blocking food deliveries to the region, even as soldiers were burning crops and stealing cattle. International officials have warned that millions are at risk of starvation; the Tigray interim government stated that people had died of famine.

● U.N. officials say about 80 aid workers are waiting in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, for permission to travel to Tigray.

● Joint NGO Letter calls for a Special Session on the deteriorating human rights situation in Ethiopia.

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

 

US ‘Directly’ Presses Eritrea to Withdraw Forces From Tigray

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Associated Press — The United States says it has directly “pressed senior levels” of Eritrea’s government to immediately withdraw its troops from neighboring Ethiopia, where witnesses have described them looting and hunting down civilians in the embattled Tigray region.

A State Department spokesperson in an email to The Associated Press on Thursday said Washington has conveyed “grave” concerns about credible reports of abuses. There were no details on how officials with Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive countries, responded.

Eritrea has said little publicly about the conflict in Tigray as Ethiopian soldiers fight forces loyal to the now-fugitive Tigray regional leaders who once dominated Ethiopia’s government for nearly three decades. The Tigray leaders were marginalized after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, and each side regards the other as illegitimate.

Ethiopia has repeatedly denied the presence of Eritrean soldiers, who some witnesses have estimated in the thousands. Now concerns are growing that the Eritrean forces refuse to leave. Eritrea remains an enemy of the fugitive Tigray leaders after a two-decade border war that ended under Abiy.

Eritrea’s information ministry on Thursday published a statement by the country’s embassy in the U.S. responding to an open letter this week by former U.S. ambassadors to Ethiopia that expressed concern about the Tigray conflict and Eritrea’s involvement.

“The allusion by these ambassadors to potential territorial war between Eritrea and Ethiopia can only be disingenuous in content and vicious in intent,” Eritrea’s statement said, expressing “profound dismay at their provocative and ill-intentioned swipe.”

The Tigray region remains largely cut off from the outside world and Ethiopia has blocked almost all journalists from entering, complicating efforts to verify assertions by the warring sides.

Meanwhile, humanitarian workers have had limited access to the estimated 6 million people in Tigray as food and other supplies run short and concerns about starvation grow.

The situation is “deteriorating every day, every minute,” the president of the Ethiopian Red Cross Society, Ato Abera Tola, told reporters on Thursday as Red Cross entities appealed for more financial support. “There is no area which is not affected by this conflict … the conflict is everywhere.”

The Ethiopia head of delegation for the International Committee for the Red Cross, Katia Sorin, said they still had not been able to reach rural areas of Tigray, a largely agricultural region. The ICRC is one of the few international organizations to maintain its operations in Tigray after fighting began.

“We’re helping, but it’s a drop in the ocean of need,” Sorin said.

Ethiopia Moves Artillery to Sudanese Border After Deadly Clashes

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Bloomberg | Sudan delegation met Saudi officials to discuss crisis. Tension adds to dispute over construction of giant hydro dam. 

Ethiopia moved heavy weapons to disputed territory on its border with Sudan, according to people familiar with the matter.

The military build-up in an area known as the al-Fashqa triangle signals increasing tensions, after deadly clashes in recent weeks raised international concern. Sudanese officials met Saudi Arabian officials in Riyadh on Wednesday to discuss the crisis, after the U.K. last week called for a de-escalation of tensions.

The Ethiopian army deployed armaments including tanks and anti-aircraft batteries to the border region in the past two weeks, said two foreign diplomats who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s spokeswoman Billene Seyoum referred a request for comment to the Foreign Ministry, and Redwan Hussein, spokesman for the government’s emergency task force, didn’t respond to a request for comment sent by text message.

Ethiopia’s government earlier this month accused the Sudanese military of carrying out organized attacks using machine-guns and armored convoys at their border. Those attacks killed “many civilians,” according to Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry.

Tensions between the two nations have ratcheted up since conflict erupted in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region on Nov. 4. Regional analysts and diplomats have said Abiy is under pressure from powerful Amhara politicians in his government, including Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen, not to back down on the border dispute.

The state of Amhara, whose fighters backed the Ethiopian federal army’s incursion into Tigray, claims ownership of parts of al-Fashqa, including areas that are within Sudanese territory. Historically, Khartoum has allowed Amhara farmers to conduct business and live in the fertile area as long as they pay taxes and operate under Sudanese laws. In turn, Ethiopia has recognized the land as Sudanese.

Demeke’s spokesman, Dina Mufti, didn’t answer two calls to his mobile phone seeking comment.

The border dispute is straining relations already weakened by an impasse over a giant hydropower dam Ethiopia is building on the main tributary of the Nile River. Sudan and Egypt depend on the flow of the river for fresh water, and both countries want Ethiopia to agree to rules on the filling and operating of the reservoir to safeguard supplies.

Sudan says the border area around al-Fashqa was demarcated under colonial-era treaties dating back to 1902, putting the land firmly inside its international borders.
Mohamed al-Faki Suleiman, a member of Sudan’s transitional government, said Wednesday he’d sought political support from Saudi Arabia in talks he held in Riyadh, Sudan’s state-run SUNA news agency reported. Any eruption of war could affect security in the wider region, including the Red Sea, he said.

Biden administration puts hold on foreign arms sales, including F-35s to UAE

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UAE

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration has put a temporary hold on several major foreign arms sales initiated by former President Donald Trump.

Officials say that among the deals being paused is a massive $23 billion transfer of stealth F-35 fighters to the United Arab Emirates. That sale and several other massive purchases of U.S. weaponry by Gulf Arab countries had been harshly criticized by Democrats in Congress. The officials did not identify the other sales that had been temporarily halted.

The new administration is reviewing the sales but has not made any determination about whether they will actually go through, the State Department said. It called the pause “a routine administrative action” that most incoming administrations take with large-scale arms sales.

“The department is temporarily pausing the implementation of some pending U.S. defense transfers and sales under Foreign Military Sales and Direct Commercial Sales to allow incoming leadership an opportunity to review,” the department said.

“This is a routine administrative action typical to most any transition, and demonstrates the Administration’s commitment to transparency and good governance, as well as ensuring U.S. arms sales meet our strategic objectives of building stronger, interoperable, and more capable security partners,” it said.

In its waning months, the Trump administration authorized tens of billions of dollars in new arms sales, including announcing plans to send 50 F-35s to the UAE. That announcement came shortly after Trump lost the Nov. 6 election to now-President Joe Biden and followed the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel, Bahrain and the UAE, under which the Arab states agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

Congressional critics have expressed disapproval with such sales, including a major deal with Saudi Arabia, that then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pushed through after bypassing lawmakers by declaring an emergency required it. The critics have alleged the weapons could be used to prosecute Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, which is the home of one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Less than a month after the Nov. 10 UAE sale was announced, an effort to block the deal fell short in the Senate, which failed to halt it.

Senators argued the sale of the defense equipment had unfolded too quickly and with too many questions. The administration has billed it as a way to deter Iran, but UAE would have become the first Arab nation — and only the second country in the Middle East, after Israel — to possess the stealth warplanes.

Sivilbefolkningens nye hverdag i Tigray: Frykter soldatene, jakter på mat

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Folk dør av sult i den konfliktherjede Tigray-provinsen i Etiopia. Bønder er blitt drept og deres eiendeler plyndret av eritreiske soldater alliert med den etiopiske regjeringshæren. Folk flykter til hovedbyen Mekele eller ut på landsbygda i håp om å kunne få mat.

Behovene er enorme og folk sulter, men store deler Tigray er utilgjengelig for FNs nødhjelpsarbeidere og internasjonale hjelpeorganisasjoner. Lokale organisasjoner er i gang med nødhjelpsarbeid noen steder.

Ifølge den seneste rapporten fra FNs nødhjelpskontor OCHA er sikkerhetssituasjonen «ustabil og utforutsigbar». Det er aktive kamphandlinger i flere deler av provinsen. Humanitær adgang uten hindringer forblir et problem snart tre måneder etter starten på konflikten. Flere internasjonale hjelpearbeidere og nødhjelpstransporter venter på de riktige tillatelsene til å kunne bevege seg nordover og inn i Tigray.

I mellomtiden er det mange hundretusener som sulter, og som lever i frykt for soldater på plyndringstokst.

Sult har drevet dem på flukt. De gikk til fots til Mekelle. I begynnelsen fikk de hjelp fra familie og venner. Etter hvert gikk de tom for mat.

– Vi lider selv om vi har penger. Vi sulter fordi Abiy (Etiopias statsminister, red.anm.) har stengt bankene. Vi får ikke lov til å bruke våre egne penger i disse vanskelige tider, sier “Merhawit” til Bistandsaktuelt.

– Min mor døde mens hun sov. Hun hadde håpet i det lengste at noen ville komme med mat til oss. Men det skjedde ikke, sier Gebretensye.

Folk fra landsbyene rundt Axum og Adwa trekker seg inn mot byene fordi avlingene de skulle hatt til mat er blitt brent.

Det er mellom 2 og 4 millioner mennesker med behov for matvarehjelp ifølge FN, mens helsesystemet har brutt fullstendig sammen. 60 000 mennesker har flyktet til nabolandet Sudan, mens nærmere en halv million er internt fordrevne.

(©Bistandsaktuel)

 

Tigray-konflikten: Frykter hundretusener skal dø av sult

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VG | Situasjonen i Tigray-provinsen i Etiopia har gått fra vondt til verre, mener norsk ekspert.

4. november 2020 beordret Etiopias regjering et militært angrep på Tigray-folkets frigjøringsfront (TPLF). Partiet har makten i landets nordligste region, Tigray, som har rundt seks millioner innbyggere. Tigrayene er en minoritet i Etiopia, men dominerte etiopisk politikk i flere tiår fram til våren 2018.

Etter folkelige protester ble Abiy Ahmed statsminister, den første fra landets største etniske gruppe, oromoene.

I 2019 ga Nobelkomiteen statsminister Abiy Ahmed fredsprisen. Nå anklages samme mann for krigsforbrytelser og oppfordring til etnisk konflikt. Det er kommet anklager om etnisk motiverte drap på begge sider av konflikten.

Demonstrerte

Forrige fredag samlet demonstranter fra den norske tigrean-foreningen seg utenfor Stortinget, i et håp om å belyse den pågående humanitære krisen i Tigray-regionen. Mange av dem som deltok i demonstrasjonen er direkte berørt av konflikten, og flere sier de har mistet familiemedlemmer.

Les videre >>

Anger in Somalia as sons secretly sent to serve in Eritrea military force

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MOGADISHU (Reuters) – Ali Jamac Dhoodi thought his son was working as a security guard in Qatar, helping prepare for next year’s soccer World Cup. Then one day last April, officials from Somalia’s National Intelligence Agency arrived with $10,000 in cash.

They told him his son had died – not in Qatar, but in Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive countries.

“They showed me a picture from their WhatsApp and asked me, ‘do you know this picture and his full name?’ I said, ‘yes he is my son,’” Dhoodi, 48, told Reuters. “They said to me ‘your son died’. I cried.”

They gave him the money, and told him not to ask questions.

Ali’s son was one of three young Somali men whose families told Reuters they had been recruited by Somalia’s federal government for jobs in Qatar, only to surface in Eritrea, where they were sent to serve in a military force against their will. Two other families said their sons had simply disappeared.

The apparent secret recruitment of young Somali men for a fighting force in Eritrea is stirring public anger in Somalia, a poor country where opportunities to work abroad are eagerly sought. Protests erupted last week in the capital Mogadishu and in the towns of Guriel and Galkayo over the missing recruits.

Reports that Eritrean forces have taken part in fighting that broke out in November last year in neighbouring northern Ethiopia – which Eritrea and Ethiopia strongly deny – have led some Somalis to worry their sons may have been sent there.

Asked if Eritrea had recruited Somalis, trained them or sent them to Ethiopia, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel told Reuters: “This is ludicrous … There is massive disinformation floating around.”

Somali government spokesman Mohamed Ibrahim and Information Minister Osman Dube did not respond to requests for comment on the Somali government’s apparent role in the recruitment, but Ibrahim said no Somalis had been sent to Ethiopia.

The leaders of Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea have been drawing closer together since 2018, after a change of leadership in Ethiopia. Ethiopia and Eritrea, once archenemies, signed a peace deal and have regular high level visits. Somalia – which once accused Eritrea of supporting Islamist rebels – now has friendly relations with its president.

‘A BULLET IS THE REPLY’

Hussein Warsame said his son Sadam, 21, had been recruited for a security job in Qatar in October, 2019. Nothing was heard from him for more than a year. Finally, last November, he phoned from Eritrea.

“We were all shocked to land in Eritrea. We thought we were being flown to Qatar,” he quoted his son as telling him. “Dad, there is no life here, I have not seen food save a lump or slice of bread since I left Somalia in 2019, and when recruits demonstrate or reject orders, a bullet is the reply.”

Sahra Abdikadir, whose son Aqil Hassan Abdi disappeared in 2019 under similar circumstances, told Reuters that he had called in January and said he was in a camp in an unknown location in Eritrea.

Eritrea, a heavily militarised society, has never held elections, has no independent media and forces its citizens into indefinate government service. Former guerrilla leader Isaias Afwerki has been president since 1993.

Somalia has had only limited central government rule since 1991.

Both countries have a history of decades of conflict in the Horn of Africa region, often involving their much larger neighbour Ethiopia.

A regional security analyst who asked not to be identified told Reuters he had learned from conversations with Somali security officials that about 1,000 Somalis had been recruited and taken to Eritrea in at least three groups. One group had returned to Somalia, the second group was unreachable and the third was still in Eritrea.

Reuters was unable to confirm those details.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 69 – 28 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 27 January)

● Arbi Harnet (a group of underground sources in Eritrea) warns that preparations are being made and already “near completion” for a “renewed final offensive” in Tigray.

● The offensive is being finalised and implementers are being informed that this will be “the final offensive to annihilate TPLF”, orchestrated as what is called a “final offensive”, the group states.

● Report that large numbers of Ethiopian uniforms arrived in Mekelle yesterday and that Eritrean soldiers were changing uniforms during the telecom shut-down. More Eritrean soldiers arrived in Mekelle.

● There is concern that Eritrean soldiers may be instructed to fight in Ethiopian uniforms in some places. Eritrean troops were dressed in ENDF uniforms in the Hawzen and Nebelet battles and they were captured by Tigray regional forces wearing these uniforms.

● At the airport in Mekelle, Eritrean troops, carrying out the security, are dressed in ENDF uniforms.

● The news comes as other sources report that Brigadier General Abraha Kassa, Director of National Security of Eritrea, was in Addis Ababa on 25/1. There was a disagreement among Eritrean and Ethiopian higher officials during the meeting at the 4 Killo Palace, the office and residence of the PM. Various sources reported altercations, with some reporting gunshots and a report of people having been shot, possibly even killed; the exact number of casualties is unknown due to variance in reports. ● Information from the Eritrean Embassy in Addis Ababa was leaked, according to a source, instructing a strategy to ensure a policy against “all educated and elite Tigreans” to be ‘forced to flee’ or ‘be squashed’ ‘mercilessly’ (as reported yesterday).

● This strategy builds on the Eritrean government’s interest in the list of arrest warrants of Tigray leadership. Eritrean official government news-site Tesfanews published a list of arrest warrants that – according to the news site, had been issued by the Ethiopian federal policy Commission. The list was published on Nov 13 and includes the names of 64 persons. The same list was published by Fana.

● The following persons named in this list of arrest warrants have now been killed: Asmelash Weldesilassie (TPLF executive member); Daniel Assefa (Head of Tigray Bureau of Finance and Planning) and ; Seyoum Mesfin (former Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia); Abay Tsehaye (former Director of Policy Study and Research Center Institute); Zeray Asgedom (former Director General of the Ethiopian Broadcasting Authority) ; and Sekoture Getachaw (former official).

● The following persons named in this list have been arrested: Dr Abraham Tekeste (Vice president of Tigray Regional State); Keria Ibrahim (former Speaker of House of Federation of Ethiopia); Dr Engineer Solomon Kidane (former Head of Addis Ababa City Road and Transport Bureau); Dr Addisalem Balema (Director General of Policy Research Institute); Mulu Gebregziabher (former state Minister of Transport); and TPLF co-founder, Sebhat Nega.

● Bank accounts of the persons on the arrest warrant list have been frozen.

● The Eritrean underground group Arbi Harnet states that “Eritrean soldiers have been trying to escape the war to seek refuge in Sudan or in different directions once they reached Tigray”.

● According to the group many Eritrean soldiers and particularly women soldiers from the 17th and 61 brigades are now stationed in Humera” to stop Eritrean soldiers from fleeing to Sudan.

● The intervention of Eritrean and ENDF allied forces lacks a military command structure, other than the high-level personal relationships between PM Abbiy and President Esayas. The military culture between the armed forces is different. While the ENDF is trained as a professional outfit, Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) is based on a conscript army, trained to survive on the land that has been captured, rather than rely on supplies and support.

● An ENDF colonel was killed by Tigray regional forces on 25/1 in Adwa.

● Six vehicles carrying soldiers were destroyed by Tigray regional forces in the Hamedo area, along the way from Adwa to Rama. The vehicles were allegedly going to Eritrea carrying looted properties.

● A new list is available of the victims of the attack on the Medhanie Alem church in Gu’etelo in wereda Gulomakeda (reported earlier). The list was compiled by local inhabitants and published in social media. On the celebration day of Medhanie Alem Eritrean soldiers killed 32 persons, among whom one could not be identified, and nine priests and church servants, one child and other villagers, mostly in Gu’etelo and some in nearby villages Ara’ero, Fredashim, Agamyu and Sebeya.

● More than 20 civilians have been killed by Eritrean troops in the Edaga Arbi area, Central zone, Tigray.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 27 January)

● The United States has made clear its position that all Eritrean troops need to leave Tigray immediately citing “Credible reports” had emerged of their involvement in human rights abuses, assaults in refugee camp, sexual violence and looting. The statement says there is “evidence of Eritrean soldiers forcibly returning Eritrean refugees from Tigray to Eritrea.”

● According to the statement “Eritrea appeared to have launched artillery attacks from its side of the border, and had troops in Tigray, though the exact number was unclear.”

● The State department states dialogue between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayans was “essential”, and humanitarian aid needed to be mobilised immediately because of “credible reports” that hundreds of thousands of people may starve to death.

● The Biden administration has imposed a temporary freeze on U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as it reviews billions of dollars in weapons transactions approved by former President Donald Trump, according to U.S. officials.

● Mr. Biden “has made clear that we will end our support for the military campaign led by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, and I think we will work on that in very short order,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at his confirmation hearing last week. Washington will continue to help defend the Saudis against Houthi attacks, Mr. Blinken said.

● The review, the officials said, includes the sale of precision-guided munitions to Riyadh as well as top-line F-35 fighters to Abu Dhabi, a deal that Washington approved as part of the Abraham Accords, in which the United Arab Emirates established diplomatic relations with Israel.

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

How Egypt is supporting Sudan in border conflict

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Al-Monitor — A delegation from the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, headed by Lt. Gen. Shamseldin al-Kabashi and Director of the General Intelligence Service Jamal Abdul Majeed, visited Cairo Jan. 14, where they met with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to discuss the latest developments on the border conflict with Ethiopia and the military operations led by the Sudanese army to liberate the territories from the armed Ethiopian militias.

The visit came as part of Sudan’s regional moves that are expected to include other visits to Arab countries, namely the Gulf, such as Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, to request “diplomatic and legal support,” according to a Jan. 14 statement by Sudanese Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din.

However, on Jan. 25, tensions escalated on the Sudanese-Ethiopian border when violent clashes with heavy weapons and artillery broke out in the Jabal Abu al-Toyour border area.

In December 2020, the Sudanese army deployed its soldiers on the border in al-Fashqa region to liberate Sudanese lands from groups affiliated with the Ethiopian militias that have been benefiting from the cultivation of hundreds of acres of fertile land since 1995.

A diplomatic source familiar with Egyptian-Sudanese ties told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “Egypt has been carefully observing the tension on the Sudanese borders since the beginning of the skirmishes because it is concerned with protecting peace and security in the African region, especially in the neighboring countries.”

He said, “Cairo has taken no recent action to support any of the conflicting parties, but Egypt welcomes Sudan’s request for support and assistance in its legal position to regain and liberate its lands.”

The source noted, “Egypt adopts policies that support peaceful solutions through dialogue and negotiation to restore peace and resolve all outstanding issues.”

He explained, “Restoring calm between Khartoum and Addis Ababa would be in Cairo’s interest — unlike what Ethiopia has been promoting in the media by throwing accusations against Egypt.”

Cairo has made no official comment on the border conflict between Khartoum and Addis Ababa since the beginning of the crisis, except in an strongly worded statement from the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Dec. 31, 2020, in response to statements by Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti. The latter had touched on the Egyptian internal affairs by criticizing the human rights situation in Egypt. Cairo considered the statement a “blatant transgression,” accusing Ethiopia of pursuing “continuous hostile practices against its regional surroundings,” referring to the Ethiopian attacks on Sudanese territory.

Egypt and Sudan are both committed to the Treaty of Joint Defense and Economic Cooperation, under the umbrella of the Arab League, which stipulates in Article 2, “The Contracting States consider any [act of] armed aggression made against any one or more of them or their armed forces, to be directed against them all. Therefore, in accordance with the right of self-defense, individually and collectively, they undertake to go without delay to the aid of the State or States against which such an act of aggression is made, and immediately to take, individually and collectively, all steps available, including the use of armed force, to repel the aggression and restore security and peace.”

Maj. Gen. Khaled Okasha, a security expert and head of the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor, “Egypt is well aware of the sensitivity of the tripartite relationship between it and Sudan and Ethiopia, and interfering in this conflict will worsen the situation without resolving it.”

He noted, “Sudan is able to recover its lands through all legal, diplomatic and military means, and it does not need Egypt’s support. Egypt realizes that these are all recurring conflicts and are not of a level that threatens Egyptian national security.”

However, Okasha added, “The escalating tension between Sudan and Ethiopia over the lands in al-Fashqa region revealed the true positions of Ethiopia, which has long claimed to be a sister country of Sudan that protects its interests in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam [GERD] issue.”

In an unprecedented military cooperation between Egypt and Sudan, units from Egypt’s air force and Saiqa (Thunderbolt) commando forces carried out joint air maneuvers with Sudan, dubbed Nile Eagles-1, on Nov. 19, 2020. The maneuvers included a number of offensive and defensive sorties on targets, while the Saiqa forces carried out drills on combat search and rescue work.

Okasha stressed, “The Egyptian military maneuvers with Sudan are not an exceptional situation, but rather a restoration of normal relations between the two countries, which had been tense throughout the period of Islamic rule in Sudan.”

In a Jan. 25 interview with Al-Arabiya channel, Sudanese Minister of Defense Lt. Gen. Yassin Ibrahim Yassin linked the border dispute with Ethiopia to the GERD negotiations, noting that “the common factor in both cases is the Ethiopian delay.”

Speaking about the possibilities of Egyptian intervention to mediate between Sudan and Ethiopia to solve the border crisis, Mona Omar, a former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister, told Al-Monitor, “I rule out such a possibility, especially with Ethiopia’s intransigent positions with Egypt in the GERD negotiations and its lack of respect for the historical charters and agreements that define mechanisms for dealing with the Nile water.”

She said, “At the present time Egypt can offer to support Sudan by raising the [border] issue in international forums and providing legal support.”

Omar noted, “Egypt’s policy does not consist of working in secret or fueling conflict between two countries, especially since Cairo is well aware that should the Sudanese-Ethiopian tension no longer be limited to mere clashes, it would have negative effects and repercussions on security in the region.”

She added, “Despite the internal calls to resort to a military solution against Ethiopia in the GERD issue — which is a matter of life and death for Egypt — the Egyptian administration committed itself to peaceful dialogue and negotiation as a way to solve the crisis.”

Since the outbreak of the confrontations with Ethiopia on the eastern border of Sudan, Khartoum has taken more hard-line stances on the GERD issue, completely rejecting the Ethiopian positions during the negotiations rounds sponsored by the African Union (AU).

Sudanese government spokesman and Minister of Information Faisal Saleh said in a press statement Jan. 23, “Sudan will not accept the imposition of a fait accompli in the GERD [issue], and we have the means to respond to Ethiopia. AU mediation [in the GERD issue] in its old form is no longer useful.”

Egypt’s moves to support Sudan in its border conflict with Ethiopia come as part of a new era of cooperation and coordination between Cairo and Khartoum to stop any threats affecting the common interests and national security of the two countries, especially in the Nile water file.