The Middle East Cold War Behind the Ethiopian Crisis

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On the ground, the fight between the Federal Army and TPLF troops has been determined by drones. The drones take off from the base of Assab that is operated by the UAE, formerly used as a base for its military operations in Yemen.

Source: Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) | Federico Donelli

The operation conducted by the Ethiopian Federal Army in the northern Tigray region threatens to trigger a further wave of instability in one of the most vulnerable areas of the world. Ethiopia is the keystone of a very fragile arc of instability that has Afghanistan on one side, and Libya on the other. Accordingly, it would be narrow-minded to consider the impact of the current crisis on the Horn of Africa alone. By examining it from a regional angle, it is possible to identify a variety of issues that render the context highly volatile. These concerns range from the outstanding dispute over water in the Nile Basin to the two proxy conflicts in Yemen and Libya, passing through the complex Sudanese political transition to the weak sovereignty of the Somali government. The scenario sketched thus provides both the suitable milieu for the spread of transnational challenges – Islamic radicalism, internally displaced persons, human smuggling, piracy, warlords – and the ideal arena for competition among external actors.

Since 2011, the most fragile countries of the above-mentioned arc of instability have become the battleground of the new cold war among the leading players of the Middle East. As in post-World War Two, the United States and the Soviet Union brought competition and clashes into the so-called ‘Third World’, nowadays, the small-to-medium Middle Eastern powers have broadened the arena beyond traditional regional borders. Among the determinants of this dynamic are both the opportunity offered by the permissive multipolar order at the global level and the need to preserve domestic order. Specifically, to avoid spillover effects that would threaten the survival of their regimes, the Middle Eastern players have exploited the fragility or even the collapse of some states (Yemen, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, Iraq) to export competition into third country contexts. The struggle has in some cases turned into violent conflicts, either through direct intervention (Syria, Yemen) or through the backing of local groups (Libya). In other cases, it has become a war of friction aimed not only to gain influence but, above all, to reduce rivals’ gains. The relational concept of power drives the current Middle Eastern chessboard. The Horn of Africa, due to its strategic centrality (Red Sea, Yemen, Suez) and its historical-cultural proximity, has witnessed a process of gradual ‘Middle-Easternisation’ in recent years. In other words, local dynamics have been partly absorbed and partly superseded by regional logic and interactions.

Ethiopia has partially escaped from these logics thanks to its political and economic weight. Further, Addis Ababa has tried to profit as much as possible from the Middle Eastern scramble. Evidence of this can be found in the fact that all the Middle Eastern players have tried to nurture diplomatic and trade relations with Addis Ababa. Recent developments, however, seem to have thrown Ethiopia into the melee. In 2018, the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Aly to government has been marked by the normalisation of relations with Eritrea. The ‘peace-cum-security pact’ was signed in 2018 in Jeddah. Far from being symbolic, the choice was indicative of the role played by two Gulf monarchies – Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – in the rapprochement between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Few international observers at the time of the signing imagined that one of the Ethiopian prime minister’s mid-term goals was to hit the Tigray (Tigray People’s Liberation Front, TPLF) elite. A target that has become evident in recent weeks when the advance of the Ethiopian army toward Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, has been supported politically and, according to the TPLF forces also militarily, by the Asmara government. On the ground, the fight between the Federal Army and TPLF troops has been determined by drones. The drones take off from the base of Assab that is operated by the UAE, formerly used as a base for its military operations in Yemen.

Despite the TPLF’s allegations, it is not possible to assert a direct involvement of either the KSA or the UAE in the Ethiopian crisis. However, it is also appropriate to consider their role from behind the scenes. In so doing, it should be noted that although the regional policy of the KSA and the UAE is usually portrayed as a shared one, in practice there are several points of disagreement. Different positions have emerged in two regional scenarios where the KSA and the UAE are involved and operative: the war in Yemen, and the transition in Sudan. Even the stance that the two Gulf monarchies have adopted in the wake of the recent U.S. presidential elections would seem to distance them from each other. There has been growing concern in Riyadh that the Biden administration may assume a less tolerant attitude towards Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s methods. The comeback on the political scene of the Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and the attempts to ease tensions with Turkey and Qatar would seem to be two significant clues. In Abu Dhabi, on the contrary, there would seem to be a rush to exploit the free rein guaranteed by Trump’s presidency. Hence the Emirates have been accelerating their plans for normalization with Israel, but also for the building of new alignments, as demonstrated by the joint drills with Egypt and Russia. As shown by the Russian talks to establish a naval base in Sudan, Egypt and Russia would seem to become the main partners of the Emirates in the Horn of Africa. A trio that stands to fill the vacuum left by the United States.

From the angle of the Middle East cold war, the UAE and Egypt are the two actors who could gain the most from Ethiopian instability. In the worst-case scenario for Addis Ababa, the resistance of the TPLF could turn into armed guerrilla warfare; in the best case, it would lead to a complicated process of post-war reconstruction and trust-building in the Tigray region. In both cases, Ethiopia should devote its resources to the domestic field. A context of instability that would benefit Egypt and the UAE more than any other players in the area. In fact, a weak Ethiopia would give a further boost to Egyptian ambitions in the region; the balance of power in the Nile waters issue would change. Likewise, the African Union – whose headquarters are in Addis Ababa – could reconsider its intransigent position towards Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. For the UAE, a weakened Ethiopia as a commercial-military dependent would fit in with its overall designs on the region. Furthermore, the Ethiopian crisis may affect Somalia, an already fragile state whose security is also ensured by AMISOM troops (mostly Ethiopians). A new wave of turmoil in Somalia would undermine the system-building projects of the two main UAE-Egypt rivals – Qatar and Turkey -, and generate new challenges and vulnerabilities in the whole Horn of Africa.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 52 – 11 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 10 January)

  • Fierce fighting reported for the last two or three days on the Tekeze belt of Abi Adi of Tigray Central Zone, between Tigray forces and Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) and Eritrean forces.
  • Intense fighting in the North Western zone of Tigray, Endebaguna area, specifically DebreAbay and Meili area between Tigray forces and ENDF together with Eritrean troops.
  • The UN says it has no access to Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps in Tigray. Access to most parts of North, Western, Eastern and Central Tigray remains constrained as fighting continues in many areas.
  • The Federal Ethiopian government has confirmed that Sebhat Nega, 86, the co-founder of the TPLF, was arrested and transported to Addis Ababa together with other TPLF affiliated officials. Sebhat Nega, also referred to as ‘Aboy Sebhat’ (‘father Sebhat’) is a retired political intellectual, former director of the Tigray Endowment Fund and director of a think tank, the Foreign Relations Strategic Study Institute in Addis Ababa until 2018.
  • During the arrest of Sebhat Nega, a video broadcasted by the Ethiopian News Agency shows two soldiers in Eritrean uniforms, one sitting and one filming the arrest. The participation of Eritrean troops in the Tigray war has been confirmed by General Belay Seyoun of the North Command of ENDF.
  • Reported that ENDF reinforcements of several buses loaded with soldiers and heavy trucks were seen in the Afar region and Tekeze areas. Their destinations are not yet known.
  • A leaked recording of a zoom meeting shows a high ranking Ethiopian General explaining the plan to take measures on Tigrayan refugees in Sudan. “They are sheltered as refugees; we will keep on bringing them back and we will work on it”, says the General. “We will also get inside Sudan and take measures after our mission in the North (Tigray) is completed”.
  • In the zoom recording the Ethiopian General also talked about the use of armed drones in the war in Tigray. “While the war was happening in front we were attacking/bombing them behind the frontlines with drones and we don’t know who is dead and alive”, said the General.
  • Reported in social media that deputy commander of ENDF 33th division was killed while fighting Tigray regional forces on the Western front.
  • Reported in social media that more than 160 civilians have been murdered by ENDF soldiers in Bora near Maychaw town in the Southern Tigray.
  • According to a source in social media, 13 members of a family have been killed by Eritrean soldiers in a village named May Cado, near Hawzen, Eastern Tigray.
  • The de facto division by the Amhara regional state of Western Tigray into two new administrative zones, entirely under Amhara administration, is carried out without legal procedure or without any official decision. The two zones are called Telemt and Humera-Welqayt-Tegede Zone. Tigrayans living in these areas are transported to Central Tigray and Amhara farmers are settled into the deserted places.
  • With regards to control in Telemt or Tselemti in West Tigray, it is reported that Amhara regional forces control May Tsebri, and Tigray regional forces control most of the area to the East.
  • On 9 and 10 January shooting was reported in Mekelle during evening and night.
  • The UN fears “massive community transmission of COVID-19 in Tigray, increased by massive displacement and the collapse of health services.
  • A new UN report said, “only five out of 40 hospitals in Tigray are physically accessible, with another four reachable by mobile networks”. It added; “ Apart from those in (the Tigray capital) Mekele, the remaining hospitals are looted and many reportedly destroyed.” AP reported that “many of the hospitals in Ethiopia’s conflict-hit Tigray region, outside its capital, have been struck by artillery during the two months of fighting”.
  • The UNHCR says it has continued to register new refugee arrivals at the Sudanese-Ethiopian border.
  • A global demonstration has taken place in different parts of the world, organized by Tigrayan and Eritrean members of the diaspora, demanding the war on Tigray must stop and Eritrean troops must leave Tigray immediately.
  • A protest of ‘body bags’ on St Kilda beach in Australia forms a protest against ‘genocide’ in the Tigray region. Australian Ethiopians call for action on the crisis in the Tigray region.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 10 January)

  • After the withdrawal of UN and African Union peacekeepers from Darfur, Sudan security forces including the Rapid Support Forces (RFS) are tasked to keep the peace and protect Darfur’s citizens. Residents of the Kalma Camp protest against the end of the peacekeeping mission by the UN and AU.
  • Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia failed to agree on the way forward for talks on the GERD dam, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry said. The matter is being referred back to the chairman of the African Union.
  • Ethiopia blames Sudan for the breakdown of talks to resolve the GERD dam dispute. While Ethiopia and Egypt agreed to another round of talks, Sudan declined because it seeks a role for AU experts in the talks and it is angered by Ethiopia’s intent to fill the dam with or without an agreement.

Links of interest

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-10/talks-over-ethiopia-s-nile-dam-hit-another-deadlock-egypt-says
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/8/un-fears-massive-covid-transmission-in-ethiopias-tigray
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-09/australian-ethiopians-rally-in-support-of-people-of-igray/13041980
https://www.africanews.com/2021/01/10/un-camp-in-sudan-registers-new-tigrayan-refugees/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-09/st-kilda-protest-against-tigray-ethopia-alleged-genocide/13044776
https://apnews.com/article/abiy-ahmed-africa-ethiopia-united-nations-kenya-a2894a53c2b85cda6a86cdd2d6c64f11

Talking and fighting about self-determination in Ethiopia

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Source: LSE | Alex de Waal

The political dispute that led to war in Tigray, Ethiopia, was sparked by contending interpretations of the right to self-determination in the country’s constitution. Drawing on a themed collection in the January 2021 issue of Nations and Nationalism, Alex de Waal explores the diverse theories and practices of self-determination in the Horn of Africa, shedding light on the current conflict and why it will be so difficult to resolve.

Read more

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 51 – 10 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 09 January)

  • The Ethiopian army has reportedly built a fence along the Sudanese border to stop refugees fromTigray from getting to Sudan. Reportedly Ethiopian presence on the Sudanses border has been growing. A Sudanese TV channel reported that refugees stopped crossing for the first time on Friday.
  • Bloomberg reported that Satellite images show the destruction of UN facilities and other facilities in Hitsats and Shimelba camps. The images indicate that the structures have been intentionally destroyed. Eritrean soldiers have been reported in the area, and many reports have surfaced of Eritrean soldiers killing refugees and other civilians and forcing refugees back to Eritrea.
  • Shimelba camp is now completely deserted and Eritrea refugees are deported to Eritrea. Especially young men.
  • Fires have also been reported in Shimelba and Hitsats refugee camps. In Hitsats there were 14 buildings on fire on January 5th and 55 other buildings have been damaged or destroyed. New fires have been detected since then.
  • Ethiopian TV has reported that 300 refugees in Hitsats camp were executed by the TPLF. An anonymous source states: “The Hitsats story is a lie. Eritrean forces massively killed their own citizens in Hitsats refugee camp to punish them for leaving Eritrea escaping their shoot to kill policy.”
  • The massacre on the Orthodox Maryam Tsion Church in Aksum in which 750 people were killed took place half December. People hiding in the church were brought out and shot in the square in front. The Maryam Tsion Church is a sacred place which holds the Ark of Covenant. A witness with experience in war zones states he “has never seen such a degree of inhumanity.”
  • Eritrea has consolidated its military presence in the Northern border area from Tekeze, Northern Shire up to Adigrat.
  • Western Tigray is divided in two new administrative zones, entirely under Amhara administration. The two new zones are: 1) Telemt (Amharic name of Tselemti), main place: May Tebri (Amharic name of May Tsebri). Part of Northern Gondar. and 2) Humera-Welqayt-Tegede Zone, main place: Humera.
  • The administrator of the new Humera-Welqayt-Tegede Zone is Yeabsira Eshete. Colonel Demeke of the Welkait Committee is the deputy and head of security. The new administration is composed of Amhara identifying people.
  • Reported that Tigrayan civilians from western Tigray are transported with buses to Central Tigray. The deserted houses in western Tigray are immediately taken over by Amharic settlers who are brought in.
  • There have been many reports of rape in Mekelle and elsewhere. A video has also emerged of and ENDF commander admiting that the rape is taking place in Mekelle. The commander says that while it would have been expected during times of conflict, it should not be happening now that the city is well under control of the federal government.
  • The number of IDPs in Tigray is at least 2.2 million people, and sources warn that starvation is used as a weapon. Without sanitation, there is serious concern for the health of the IDPs.
  • 6 buses filled with soldiers are moving to Shire from Gondar.
  • It is confirmed that TPLF spokesman, Sekoture Getachew, and the former director of the Ethiopian Broadcasting Authority and journalist, Abebe Asgedom, were killed by a drone attack one month ago. They were attacked by a drone while traveling together in a car.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 09 January)

  • Ethiopia has announced that it would continue with the planned second filling of the GERD dam in the absence of an agreement. The filling is planned for the coming summer.
  • Sudan has expressed “deep concern” about Ethiopian intentions to proceed with the second filling. The minister for water resources said that it had serious consequences for a nearby Sudanese dam, the Roseires dam. The first filling in July 2020 also caused serious problems for Khartoum’s water supply.
  • The Coalition of Ethiopian Inter-Religious and Elders Council warn that conflict in the Benishangul-Gumuz region is endangering the GERD dam. The dam is located in the region, and violence is aimed at disrupting the construction of the dam.
  • The GERD dam negotiations are expected to resume on Sunday, with AU experts present.
  • Sudan and Ethiopia have announced that they will hold another round of negotiations regarding the border issue.
  • China’s biggest port operator, China Merchants Groups, has agreed on a deal that would see Djibouti turned into a regional hub. The agreement would see an investment of 3 billion US$. CMG already owns a 23.5% stake in the port. China has also built a railway from Djibouti to Addis Ababa.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 09 January)

  • The British Telegraph has done extensive reporting into the involvement of Eritrean troops in Tigray. They conducted interviews of witnesses to massacres carried out by Eritrean troops in Tigray.
  • One Witness said that Eritrean troops killed “dozens” of civilians in Idaga Hamus after capturing it on November 21st. Among the victims was a priest. Another saw summary executions of civilians, also by Eritreans, in Adigrat.
  • There were also accounts of indiscriminate artillery firing on Humera, near the Eritrean border. This corroborates stories of other witness reports.
  • EU High Representative of Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, talked with Deputy PM Mekonnen and conveyed EU alarm over the situation in Tigray. He also said Ethiopia must grant unrestricted access to the region.
  • The American-Ethiopian Yohannes Abraham will serve as the American National Security Council Chief of Staff. He is currently the executive-director of President-elect Biden’s transition team.
  • A new translation tool has been developed to translate Tigrinya into English. Lesan.ai developed this new tool. Translation to Amharic is possible as well.

Links of interest

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/eritreas-shadow-war-ethiopia-laid-bare-amid-accusations-eritrean/
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2021-01-09/satellite-images-show-destruction-of-refugee-camps-in-ethiopia
https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-sudan-deeply-concerned
https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/china-merchants-signs-deal-3bn-expansion-djibouti-/

IPIS Briefing December 2020 – Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict

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Sudan declares full control of border territory settled by Ethiopians | 31 December 2020 | Reuters

Sudan said on Thursday its forces had taken control of all of Sudanese territory in a border area settled by Ethiopian farmers, after weeks of clashes.

Is Ethiopia the Next Yugoslavia? | 31 December 2020 | Foreign Policy

A country that once seemed to hold great promise for peaceful democratization has descended into conflict. Here’s what could happen next.

Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict revives bitter disputes over land | 30 December 2020 | Business Recorder

As rifle-toting militiamen fired celebratory rounds into the air, young men marched through the streets denouncing the former ruling party of Ethiopia’s Tigray region as “thieves.”

Reuters cameraman detained in Ethiopia has seen no evidence against him, lawyer says | 30 December 2020 | Reuters

Reuters cameraman Kumerra Gemechu has been held in solitary confinement for nearly a week without charge or being given any evidence of wrongdoing, his lawyer said.

Arrest of Cameraman in Ethiopia Signals Wider Crackdown | 29 December 2020 | NYT

The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has stepped up the arrests of journalists since going to war in the country’s northern region of Tigray.

Tigray crisis: Eritrea’s role in Ethiopian conflict | 28 December 2020 | BBC News

In a sign of the changing political fortunes of a man who was once a pariah, Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki has proven to be a staunch ally of Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize winner and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, giving his troops much-needed support to fight the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Tigray.

Ethiopian police arrest Reuters cameraman | 28 December 2020 | Reuters

A Reuters cameraman, Kumerra Gemechu, was arrested in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on Thursday and will be kept in custody for at least two weeks, his family said. He has not been charged.

Ethiopia accused of war crimes in Mai Kadra massacre | 27 December 2020 | Morning Star

Investigations into potential war crimes committed during Ethiopia’s military offensive against the northern Tigray region must be impartial, thorough and transparent, the United Nations said today.

Ethiopia: Declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union | 25 December 2020 | Council of the EU

The European Union is closely following the crisis in Ethiopia. The EU remains concerned by the humanitarian situation, as well as allegations of human rights violations and ethnic targeting. Ongoing reports of non-Ethiopian involvement raise additional worries.

The secret war in Tigray | 23 December 2020 | Ethiopia Insight

The intervention has been covert to mask the involvement of Eritrean troops, control the narrative, and obscure civilian suffering. International action is needed.

Eritrea: Who Will Call Out Eritrea’s War Crimes in Tigray? | 23 December 2020 | African Arguments | AllAfrica

Eritrea has deployed most of its army in Tigray region of Ethiopia. This is no secret. At minimum, 12 divisions have been fighting inside Tigray. At first, the United States gave Eritrea a free pass, expressing “thanks to Eritrea for not being provoked” into retaliating after a TPLF rocket attack on Asmara. Later it admitted that Eritrea was a belligerent. The United Nations Secretary General repeated Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed’s assertion that Eritrean troops had not crossed the border. The Chairperson of the African Union has carefully said nothing on the issue.

U.N. pushes for war crimes probe in Tigray (video) | 23 December 2020 | Reuters

The United Nations has appealed for tens of millions of dollars to help refugees from Ethiopia’s Tigray and wants a team on the ground in the northern Ethiopian region to investigate alleged violations of human rights.

Violations of International Law Imperil Civilians in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region | 22 December 2020 | VoA News

The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michele Bachelet, is warning that civilians in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are in extreme peril amid allegations of widespread violations, some possibly amounting to war crimes.

Tigray: Hundreds of civilians reported killed in artillery strikes, warns UN rights chief | 22 December 2020 | UN News

Reports of artillery strikes on civilians and mass killings of non-combatants in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, must be investigated and full access granted to independent investigators, UN rights chief Michelle Bachelet said on Tuesday.

Le Tigré, en Ethiopie, une région en souffrance | 22 December 2020 | RTBF

L’Ethiopie est un pays d’Afrique particulièrement marqué par la diversité de ses peuples. On y trouve plus de 80 ethnies différentes dispersées géographiquement. Cette diversité de cultures fait de l’Ethiopie une terre particulièrement riche mais aussi fertile aux conflits.

Éthiopie: un rapport documente les atrocités commises dans le Tigré | 20 December 2020 | RFI

Depuis le début du conflit dans le Tigré, au nord de l’Éthiopie, le 4 novembre, près de 50 000 réfugiés ont traversé la frontière pour trouver refuge au Soudan voisin. Leurs témoignages ont été recueillis par la presse internationale qui s’est fait l’écho de leurs histoires individuelles. Un rapport basé sur plusieurs de ces témoignages, publié le vendredi 18 décembre, permet de mieux comprendre ce qui s’est déroulé, pendant un mois, dans cette province éthiopienne coupée du monde.

Éthiopie: poursuite des combats au Tigré, menace d’extension du conflit | 19 December 2020 | RFI

En Éthiopie, les combats continuent au Tigré sans que l’on puisse savoir exactement où ils se situent car les télécommunications sont toujours coupées dans l’ensemble de la province. Cela fait désormais 45 jours que le Premier ministre Abiy Ahmed a lancé son offensive. Une opération qu’il estime terminée bien qu’aucun des leaders du parti du tigréen TPLF n’ait été arrêté pour le moment.

Ethiopia offers reward for word on fugitive Tigrayan leaders | 18 December 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia offered a 10 million birr ($260,000) reward on Friday for information on the location of fugitive leaders of a rebellious force in northern Tigray region.

The War in Tigray Is a Fight Over Ethiopia’s Past—and Future | 18 December 2020 | Foreign Policy

The current conflict is the latest battle in a long-running war over the country’s identity as a unitary or federal state. The United States can restore its credibility as an honest broker by helping resolve it.

Sudan claims its officers were ambushed by Ethiopian forces | 17 December 2020 | DefenceWeb

A number of Sudan armed forces officers were ambushed by “Ethiopian forces and militias” during a security patrol of the border region.

Inside a Military Base in Ethiopia’s Tigray: Soldiers Decry Betrayal by Former Comrades | 17 December 2020 | US News

Rebellious soldiers used government tanks to attack their former comrades in a military base in the first chaotic days of Ethiopia’s month-long war in the region of Tigray, according to two soldiers caught in what they described as a 10-day siege.

Ethnic profiling of Tigrayans heightens tensions in Ethiopia | 16 December 2020 | The New Humanitarian

The fighting between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) wasn’t a surprise to Tigrayans living in Addis Ababa: They had seen it coming for years. What they didn’t expect was to be living in fear so far away from the front lines.

Did Ethiopia’s attack on Tigray violate international laws? | 15 December 2020 | The Africa Report

A legal scholar weighs in on the decision taken by Ethiopian prime minister Ahmed Abiy to send troops into the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray, to quell what the government sees as an insurgency.

Ruling party members speak of need to repeat Tigray military operation in Benishangul Gumuz as Amhara region | 15 December 2020 | Addis Standard

Members of the Benishangul Gumuz Regional State Prosperity Party (PP) Women’s League have demanded the federal government to repeat in Benishangul Gumuz regional state, Metekel Zone the ongoing “law enforcement operations in Tigray.”

Mekelle’s plight: A doctor’s account of Ethiopia’s Tigray war | 14 December 2020 | al Jazeera

Doctor at regional capital’s main hospital offers dramatic account of dire medical shortages, threat of starvation and widespread fear during the conflict.

US says reports of Eritrean troops in Ethiopia’s Tigray are ‘credible’ | 11 December 2020 | DefenceWeb

The United States believes reports of Eritrean military involvement in the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are “credible,” a State Department spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday, despite denials by both nations.

Ethiopia volatile with fighting, ethnic profiling of Tigrayans – UN rights boss | 9 December 2020 | Reuters

The situation in Ethiopia is “worrying and volatile” as fighting in the Tigray region continues amid reports of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans including in Addis Ababa, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said on Wednesday.

Ethiopie : Accès interdit au Tigray | 9 December 2020 | Sahel Intelligence

Le Secrétaire général de l’ONU, Antonio Guterres, a exhorté le gouvernement éthiopien à rétablir rapidement l’état de droit au Tigray et assurer un accès sans entrave de l’aide humanitaire dans la région.

Ethiopia says U.N. team shot at in Tigray after defying checkpoints | 8 December 2020 | Reuters

A United Nations team visiting refugees in Ethiopia’s war-hit Tigray region had failed to stop at two checkpoints when it was shot at over the weekend, the government said on Tuesday, proclaiming it did not need a “baby-sitter”.

Eritreans caught in dilemma over Tigray conflict | 7 December 2020 | Ethiopia Insight

Many Eritreans, including those that oppose President Isaias Afwerki’s rule, are in a dilemma regarding the conflict in Tigray. Most Eritreans agree that he is the mastermind of it and stand against any involvement by their country. There is also a die-hard few that believe he is doing this in the interests of Eritrea.

Ethiopia’s Abiy Denies Guerrilla War Emerging in Tigray | 7 December 2020 | VoA

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed denied on Monday that a rebellious northern force his troops have battled for over a month would have the capacity to mount a guerrilla war from the mountains of Tigray.

La guerre du Tigré, prélude à l’éclatement de l’Ethiopie sur le modèle de l’ex Yougoslavie ? | 6 December 2020 | Atlantico.fr

Depuis plus d’un mois déjà, une guerre particulièrement meurtrière secoue le nord de l’Ethiopie dans la province fédérale du Tigré. Elle a déjà causé des milliers de morts et plus de 50.000 réfugiés aujourd’hui accueillis dans des conditions précaires au Soudan.

‘Now I have nothing’: Tigray conflict has changed Ethiopia for ever, say refugees | 6 December 2020 | The Guardian

Before shelling by Ethiopia’s army ripped through Humera in early November, life in the airy, agricultural city in Tigray was idyllic, says Brhane Haftu, a geography teacher.

En marge du conflit au Tigré, l’armée soudanaise reprend une partie du triangle d’el-Fashaga | 6 December 2020 | RFI

La tension monte à la frontière entre l’Éthiopie et le Soudan, notamment dans la région du triangle d’el-Fashaga, une zone dont la démarcation pose problème entre les deux pays depuis des décennies. Or, à la faveur du conflit au Tigré, l’armée soudanaise a pris possession d’une partie de ce territoire agricole.

Fighting flares in Ethiopia’s Tigray as army says closing in on rebellious force | 5 December 2020 | Reuters

Bombing, looting and skirmishes persisted in parts of Ethiopia’s Tigray on Saturday, a rebellious force in the northern region said after government troops declared they were within days of capturing the group’s leaders.

Eritrea’s Role in Ethiopia’s Conflict and the Fate of Eritrean Refugees in Ethiopia | 4 December 2020 | African Arguments

In the following article, Mesfin Hagos (founding member of the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) in the 1970s who served as Minister of Defense in the 1990s), the most authoritative voice on Eritrean military affairs, reveals the extent of Eritrean involvement in the Ethiopian war.

Ethiopia’s war in Tigray shows no signs of abating, despite government’s victory claims | 4 December 2020 | The Washington Post

Clashes continued across Ethiopia’s Tigray region and humanitarian aid remained paused at its border Friday, despite government claims that military operations had ceased and pledges to allow U.N. agencies access to hundreds of thousands of people who rely on them for food.

Ethiopie : les 5 clés pour comprendre la guerre au Tigré | 4 December 2020 | Agence Ecofin

Depuis plusieurs semaines, la région du Tigré en Ethiopie est le théâtre d’un conflit sanglant entre le gouvernement central siégeant à Addis-Abeba et le Front pour la libération du peuple du Tigré (TPLF). Au cœur de ce nouvel épisode de guerre civile, des revendications indépendantistes du TPLF qui ne reconnaît plus l’autorité du pouvoir central. Mais les racines de ce conflit sont plus profondes. Il est en réalité le résultat de frustrations et de tensions accumulées, dues au passé politique de l’Ethiopie et à son système de gouvernance. Décryptage.

Ethnic Cleansing Feared as Ethiopia Wages War on Tigray Region Amid Communication Blackout | 3 December 2020 | DemocracyNow

The United Nations has reached a deal with Ethiopia’s government to allow humanitarian access to the northern Tigray region and start providing aid. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched military action against regional forces one month ago, setting off a bloody conflict and adding to the already alarming number of displaced people and refugees in the country and neighboring nations.

Why Ethiopia’s Tensions Are Boiling Over in Tigray | 3 December 2020 | The Washington Post

Long-standing tensions between Ethiopia’s federal government and the northern state of Tigray have escalated into all-out conflict. In early November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered the military to respond to a raid on an army camp in the restive region. After almost four weeks of fighting, Abiy said his forces had taken full control of Tigray.

Le Tigré sera-t-il le tombeau de l’Éthiopie ? | 3 December 2020 | Le Point

ANALYSE. La rébellion au Tigré menace d’aboutir à une sécession qui pourrait en entraîner d’autres et mettre à mal le fédéralisme ethnique éthiopien. Voilà pourquoi.

Tigray: War drums were sounding for two years | 3 December 2020 | The Standard

I grew up in Ethiopia during the days of the military government. For years before its overthrow in 1991, the national army was locked in a protracted war against rebel movements in the north. It was common in those days to hear state media reporting the capture or recapture of towns from rebel forces. The parading of prisoners of war made daily headlines.

Ethiopia war may turn into guerrilla insurgency, experts say | 2 December 2020 | DefenceWeb

Ethiopia’s nearly month-long war against rebellious northern forces may be transforming into a guerrilla conflict, experts said on Tuesday, even though federal troops declared victory after capturing the Tigrayan regional capital at the weekend.

Éthiopie : les principales dates du conflit armé au Tigré | 30 November 2020 | TV5 Monde

Les hôpitaux de Mekele sont débordés. Depuis l’annonce de la prise de contrôle de la capitale du Tigré par le gouvernement éthiopien, les blessés affluent. Les civils sont les premières victimes de la vaste opération militaire lancée le 4 novembre par le Premier ministre Abiy Ahmed. Aucun bilan précis n’est disponible, mais plus de 43.000 Ethiopiens ont fui au Soudan voisin. Comment est né ce conflit armé ? Qui en sont les principaux acteurs ? Rappel des faits.

Ethiopia’s PM savours victory, Tigrayan leader says war not finished | 30 November 2020 | Reuters

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed lauded his troops on Monday for ousting a rebellious northern movement, but the leader of Tigrayan forces said they were still resisting amid fears of a protracted guerrilla conflict.

Once enemies, Ethiopia and Eritrea ally against Tigray | 29 November 2020 | DW

Eritrea has been involved in the Tigray crisis in Ethiopia from day one, experts have said. But even though the two countries are fighting together against a common enemy, that does not make them friends.

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Separatism in Africa: Exploring colonial legacies | 3 December 2020 | DW

Diverse secessionist movements are back in the spotlight in Africa. The Tigray Region in Ethiopia is only one example. The roots often go back to the colonial era, and some of these conflicts still smolder today.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 50 – 09 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • The ENDF has announced that next to the nine officials that it captured, they have also killed four other Tigrayan officials. The officials killed are the TPLF spokesman, the former head of the Tigray finance bureau, and two other core members. The ENDF did not detail how the four men were killed.
  • The ENDF reinforcements that were seen moving towards Mekelle at the beginning of the week have reached Alamata. The force consists of 8 tanks, 20 buses, and 5 heavy trucks.
  • Heavy gunfire has been reported in Mekelle and its outskirts. Heavy artillery bombing was reported in Wukro, North of Mekelle.
  • Report that Maryam Tsiyon Church has been attacked (local people believe with the aim to take the Ark of Covenant to Addis Ababa). Hundreds of people hiding in the Maryam Tsiyon Church were brought out and shot on the square in front. The number of people killed is reported as 750.
  • Satellite images have detected a fire in Baeker, Humera. Fighting has been reported in that area.
  • Reported in social media that the Sudanese army would have evidence of participation of Eritrean troops in the war between Ethiopia and Sudan over the disputed border area, Al-Fashqa.
  • Reported that Eritrean troops are currently in all administrative zones in Tigray, except the Southern zone. This includes: Tekeze area, Adigoshu, Maywoini (Geyts), Fresalem (Edris), Adebay, Ousman, Jebel, Humera, Rawyan, Bereket (Western); Shire, Endebagina, Selekleka, Adihageray, Adinebried, Sheraro, Semema (North Western); Wukro Maray, Aksum, Adwa, Rama, Egela, Zana (Central); Adigrat, Edaga Hamus, Wukro, Hawzen (Eastern).
  • Extreme looting reported in the Gheralta area, and Hawzen has been seriously damaged (‘destroyed’).
  • Another list of names of civilian victims in the districts of Gheralta and Enderta (Tigray) has emerged. Reportedly, the victims were killed by Eritrean troops. All the names on the list are of men.
  • Reported that Eritrean soldiers use Ethiopian military uniforms as disguise but local people recognise them easily as they speak Tigrigna with an Eritrean accent. Mostly, especially in Western Tigray, the Eritrean troops are wearing the uniforms of the Eritrean army, according to reports.
  • A second humanitarian worker from Dutch humanitarian NGO ZOA has also been killed in the Hitsats refugee camp, where heavy fighting is reported.
  • According to the UN OCHA fighting in Tigray continues, among other locations, in the Mekelle Periphery, Shire, and Shiraro. The fighting has stopped the deployment of some of its missions.
  • Unconfirmed: Sebhat Nega, 86, the co-founder of the TPLF, was arrested in a remote valley, together with defected officers from the Northern Command. Sebhat Nega, also referred to as ‘Aboy Sebhat’ (‘father Sebhat’) is a retired political intellectual, former director of the Tigray Endowment Fund and director of a think tank, the Foreign Relations Strategic Study Institute in Addis Ababa until 2018.

Reported Regional situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • The Vice-Chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, General M.H. Dugalo (‘Hemiti’ or ‘Hamediti’) met with Eritrean President Isaias in Asmara on Friday. The visit followed accusations that Eritrea is involved in the war on the Ethiopia-Sudan border. The visit was reported as a failure.  President Ramaphosa of South Africa has said that the AU appointed Special Envoys on Tigray will visit the Tigray area soon.
  • President Kiir of South Sudan has called on the Sudanese government to reach a settled negotiation with Ethiopia. He made the comments following a meeting with al-Din Kabbashi, a member of the Sovereign Council, and Omer Gamar Eldin, the acting Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Reported International dimension (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • The Global Center for the Responsibility to Protect is urging states with significant military ties to Ethiopia, to withhold military assistance until all war crimes and human rights violations have been investigated, and their perpetrators held accountable.
  • A demonstration has taken place in The Hague, the Netherlands, organised by Tigray and Eritrean members of the diaspora, demanding that Eritrean troops leave Tigray immediately.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • UN OCHA states in a report that the situation in Tigray remains volatile. While, it believes that the situation has been improving, access to food, water, and medical supplies remains limited. The report has identified that looting of humanitarian supplies and equipment continues in some areas, including Kuiha and Lachi.
  • The UN OCHA report identifies that 4.5 million people needing emergency assistance, of which 2.2 million IDPs. However only 77 thousand people in Mekelle and 25 thousand in Mai Ayni and Adi Harush refugee camps have received food support from the UN and its partners.
  • UN OCHA reports that it still does not have access to Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps. Bureaucratic constraints and lack of security has made it more difficult to access many areas of Tigray.
  • Sources disagree with UN OCHA’s assessment that things are going back to normal in Mekelle, Alamata, and Mehoni. Fighting has still been taking place in the area, and people are being prevented from leaving. Moreover, a critical lack of many supplies still exists in the area.
  • Demtsi Woyane, DW, a TPLF aligned broadcast, has released further footage of a heavily looted buildings of Mekelle University. Multiple departments have been completely emptied.
  • Since mid-November the accounts of EFFORT, the umbrella to which many companies in Tigray belong, have been frozen and reports show that its huge assets are now being ‘redistributed’ in Ethiopia.

Refugee Situation (as confirmed per 08 January)

  • Ethiopian refugees in Sudan have told The World on their experiences in the conflict. A witness recounts how on his flight to Sudan he Ethiopian Federal Troops were accompanied by Eritrean soldiers. They proceeded to shoot his son twice and left him to die.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.pri.org/stories/2021-01-05/sudan-ethiopian-refugees-tell-their-stories
https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-tigray-region-humanitarian-update-situation-report-6-january-2021
https://africanarguments.org/2021/01/eritrea-in-the-tigray-war-what-we-know-and-why-it-might-backfire/
https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/finance-and-policy/tigray-conflict-could-delay-grand-renaissance-dam-negotiations/
https://www.globalr2p.org/publications/atrocity-alert-no-234-ethiopia-china-and-niger/

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 47 – 08 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • Reported that ethnic Tigray soldiers being suspended and/or returned from Ethiopian peace-keeping missions are imprisoned by the Ethiopian Federal Government.
  • Reported that ethnic Tigrayan military attachés in Ethiopian diplomatic services abroad are sacked.
  • Reported that Eritrean soldiers were ambushed by Tigrayan forces East of Wukro.
  • Pictures have emerged of the ambush between Mekoni and Mekelle. Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) forces were ambushed by Tigray forces.
  • Report that Eritrean forces occupy Hitsats town in Tigray and control the area, including a refugee camp which hosts 25.000 refugees from Eritrea. The camp has still not been reached by humanitarian organisations and refugees and communities have been without food supplies for over two months.
  • The ENDF released the names of 9 senior TPLF members they have captured, according to the report.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • An Eritrean delegation has met with the Chairman of the Sovereign Council Al-Burhan of Sudan. They discussed regional security and tried to strengthen bilateral ties and regional security. The Eritreans reportedly offered to mediate the conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan. Sudan rejected the offer.
  • One of the leading African Constitutional and Human rights law experts, Paulos Tesfagiorgis, has argued that the peace process that the AU initiated to solve the conflict in Tigray was undermined by the AU Commission chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, from the beginning. According to Tesfagiorgis, Mahamat was “blatantly partisan” and undermined the peacemaking process.
  • Tesfagiorgis argues that the Chairperson’s position “violates the letter and spirit of the African Union and IGAD constitutive documents and numerous subsequent resolutions,..” Mahamat undermined any chances of peace and the principles that the regional and continental bodies pursue, he states.
  • It was earlier reported that a proposal at the 38th Extraordinary Conference of IGAD for the AU Commission Chairperson, Mahamat, to visit Tigray was withdrawn from the communiqué.
  • Tesfagiorgis also stated that “Today there is alarming news of starvation in Eritrea. The regime has politicized the issue of the virus and opted to use it as a weapons to starve and weaken the people by enforcing lockdown without the means to feed them.”
  • Eritrea has taken complete lock-down measures. A source from Eritrea reported the COVID-spread is ‘devastating’, reporting that doctors, drivers and government officials have reportedly been infected.
  • The UN fears that the recent conflict in Tigray has facilitated massive COVID-19 community transmission in Tigray. Other sources suggested the conflict has facilitated the spread across all involved regions, including Eritrea.
  • Sudan has confirmed the arrival of more refugees from Ethiopia. The humanitarian official said that most refugees cross at night, to avoid military patrols on the border, stopping refugees from crossing.
  • The Ethiopian government has denied that more Ethiopian troops had been placed on the border to prevent refugees from crossing into Sudan.
  • The Council for the Arab States of the Gulf encourages members to cooperate with Sudan.
  • No agreement has yet been reached on reopening negotiations on the GERD dam. Sudan and Egypt disagree on the role that AU experts should play during the negotiations.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • In its recent report crisis NGO ACAPS ranks humanitarian access in Ethiopia with Very High Access Constraints. Areas not under the control of the government remain inaccessible for humanitarian aid.
  • ACAPS states that the border with Sudan has been partially closed since the Tigray conflict started.
  • The associate director of Human Rights Watch has said that it is essential to allow unhindered access to Tigray. With estimations on the number of IDPs ranging from 200 thousand (by the UN) to over 2 million (by the interim Tigray government), it is important to have unhindered access to reach them.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • The majority of the displaced people in the area have returned home, but most of their belongings have been looted. The UN has observed massive damage and vandalisation to public health centres. Infrastructure and other public buildings urgently need repairs.
  • The UN has only provided food relief to Mekelle and Mai Ayni and Adi Harush refugee camps. It would appear that until now no food has been provided to the camps Shemelba and Hitsats, home to 50.000 Eritrean refugees. These have not received food since October last year.

International Situation (as confirmed per 7 January 2021)

  • The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held a viral meeting on Wednesday. They discussed various challenges and initiatives for the promotion of peace and security. UN Chief Antonio Gutteres expressed support for the AU “silence the guns” initiative. Liberia’s former President, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, called on the Council to take bold steps towards ending conflicts.
  • President Kenyatta of Kenya has laid out Kenya’s agenda for its year tenure of a non-permanent UNSC seat. It includes a greater role for Africa and the Global South, COVID-19 vaccines for Africa, and a revitalised multilateralism aimed at strengthening global peace and security.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1788376
https://www.unocha.org/story/daily-noon-briefing-highlights-ethiopia-8
https://www.acaps.org/country/world/special-reports#container-1592
https://africanarguments.org/2021/01/the-ethiopian-conflict-and-the-abrogation-of-the-au-mandate-by-the-commission-chairperson/

UN fears ‘massive’ COVID transmission in Ethiopia’s Tigray

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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The United Nations fears “massive community transmission” of COVID-19 in Ethiopia’s troubled Tigray region, fueled by displacement and the collapse of health services, as humanitarian workers finally begin to access the region two months after fighting began. Hospitals have been looted, even destroyed.

A new U.N. report based on the first on-the-ground assessments confirms some of the grim concerns around Tigray’s some 6 million people since the conflict erupted Nov. 4 between Ethiopian forces and those of the Tigray region.

The crisis has threatened to destabilize one of Africa’s most powerful and populous countries and pull in neighbors like Sudan. Tigray leaders dominated Ethiopia’s government for nearly three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power and sidelined them amid sweeping reforms that won him the Nobel Peace Prize.

Abiy has rejected international “interference” in the conflict even as the U.N. and others pleaded for weeks for unhindered access to Tigray as food, medicines and other supplies ran out.

Now COVID-19 has emerged as the latest source of alarm. “Only five out of 40 hospitals in Tigray are physically accessible,” the new U.N. report issued Thursday says. “Apart from those in (the Tigray capital) Mekele, the remaining hospitals are looted and many reportedly destroyed.” It does not say who did the looting.

COVID-19 surveillance and control work was interrupted for more than a month in Tigray, and that, along with the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, “is feared to have facilitated massive community transmission of the pandemic,” the report says.

Ethiopia has one of the highest COVID-19 caseloads on the African continent with more than 127,000 confirmed infections. While its rate of daily cases has declined in recent weeks, officials have not said whether they have been receiving any data from the Tigray region.

“Health facilities outside of major cities are nonfunctional and those in the major cities are partially working with limited to no stock of supplies and absence of health workers,” the U.N. report says.

The report also says the Tigray region remains volatile. “Localized fighting and insecurity continues, with fighting reported in rural areas and in the peripheries of Mekele, Shiraro and Shire among other locations, as of last week,” it says.

The overall humanitarian situation is “dire,” the U.N. says, with food supplies “very limited” and widespread looting reported. “Only locally produced food items are available and at increasing prices, making basic goods unaffordable.” Most Tigray residents are subsistence farmers, and the conflict disrupted the harvest.

Two important camps hosting tens of thousands of refugees from nearby Eritrea remain unreachable — another source of alarm as the presence of Eritrean troops has been confirmed in Tigray.

No one knows how many thousands of people have been killed in the conflict. At least five humanitarian workers have been killed.

Abiy Ahmed and the Consolidation of Ethiopia’s Dictatorship

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As Ethiopia heads toward the delayed elections tentatively now rescheduled for June 5, 2021, Ahmed’s fight not only undercuts his chief rival, who happens to be Tigrayan but enables him to use emergency powers to further erode democracy.

Source: National Interest | Michael Rubin

Africa has, for decades, been a democracy success story albeit one too often ignored in the West. When Ronald Reagan took office, U.S. exports to Africa accounted for only four percent of total U.S. exports and the share of American investment in Africa was even less. Strip away Morocco from the mix, and the proportion of U.S. trade with the continent’s then-fifty-two countries was even less. Freedom was a rare commodity. Freedo House’s Freedom in the World survey for 1983–84 ranked only Botswana, Mauritius, and Nigeria free among African countries. South Africa’s Apartheid regime and Ethiopia’s Derg were both stains on the continent.

As the Cold War ended, democracy bloomed where, for decades, authoritarians had it smothered. In 1990–91, Freedom House listed sixty-five free countries. A decade later, it counted eighty-six free countries. The democratic revolution in Africa contributed to the change. Benin went from a Soviet-style police state to a free state. Cape Verde Ghana, Mali, newly-independent Namibia, and post-Apartheid South Africa also ranked as free states.

Far more countries moved from not free to partly free. Ethiopia, the continent’s second-largest country by population, was one of them. In 1991, longtime Marxist dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam fled the country for Zimbabwe exile. Meles Zenawi took over as a transitional leader and embraced ethno-federalism in order to end the decades of ethnic conflict which Ethiopia had suffered. In May 1995, Ethiopia had its first multi-party elections. Some opposition parties boycotted the polls which many observers nonetheless deemed fair despite ruling authorities taking advantage of state resources. Government harassment of opponents continued, however, and the outbreak of war with Eritrea in 1998 further impeded political liberalization. While the 1995 constitution was progressive, the reality of its implementation often was not. In 2010, against a broad global backdrop of democratic backsliding, Freedom House returned Ethiopia to the ranks of the not free and observed, “Ethiopia’s trajectory has also been negative for a number of years, as Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has persecuted the political opposition, tilted the political playing field, and suppressed civil society.” In 2012, Freedom House returned Ethiopia to the ranks of the unfree. In 2018, it listed Ethiopia in the company of Venezuela, Turkey, and Yemen as having among the most precipitous declines in freedom over the previous decade.

It was perhaps for this reason that the 2018 rise of Abiy Ahmed to Ethiopia’s premiership captivated international diplomats. He succeeded Hailemariam Desalegn who was the first leader in Ethiopia’s history to step down voluntarily. At just forty-one-years-old, Ahmed represented generational change. He came from a security service background, but had a reputation as a reformer. Such optimism about Ahmed’s intentions grew when he sought to end the decades-long stand-off with Eritrea, an initiative which won him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of “his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea.”

There are no shortage of Nobel Peace Prize embarrassments but Ahmed is quickly positioning himself to be among the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s biggest regrets. In hindsight, what the Nobel Committee saw as a bold gamble for peace appears more a premeditated agreement to bury one hatchet to wield another. The Ethiopia-Eritrea border war was likened to a fight between two bald men fighting over a comb. With the border settled, Ahmed could then begin his own assault in conjunction with Eritrean forces on Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region as Ahmed seeks to recentralize Ethiopia and reverse the autonomy enjoyed by Ethiopia’s ethnically diverse regions and enshrined in the 1995 constitution.

The casus belli appears to be a dispute between the Tigray region and Ahmed’s government about his unilateral efforts to expand his mandate. In June 2020, Ahmed announced that he was postponing elections. Supporters said prudence against the backdrop of the coronavirus merited the extension of his term while opponents warned that abrogating the constitution opened the door to reconsolidate dictatorship. In Tigray, the regional government did not recognize the extension of Ahmed’s term and moved forward with its own elections which Ahmed deemed “illegal.” Tigrayan authorities responded by arguing that Ahmed’s condemnation was meaningless as his constitutional mandate expired in October 2020. Perhaps fearing that Tigray’s political defiance could spread to Ethiopia’s other region, in November 2020, Ahmed ordered Ethiopian Defense Forces to occupy Tigray and oust its elected government. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, one of the key forces which overthrew the Derg, dug-in to defend their Tigray’s local autonomy and to stymie rumors plans to transfer territory from their region to neighboring Amhara.

It has been a brutal fight. Ethiopian forces cut off communications to the regional capital Mekelle as Ethiopian forces marched on the city and reportedly subjected it to an artillery barrage. Despite Ethiopia’s repeated denials, Ahmed appointed his own mayor who now admits that Eritrean forces also joined the fighting, a fact the U.S. intelligence community now acknowledges. Eyewitness accounts describe Ethiopian and Eritrean forces summarily executing civilians and looting property. For Ahmed, power motivates, and for Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki, cash does. Few having tasted liberty are willing to forfeit it easily, however, and so unrest continues. On Dec. 27, Ethiopia reportedly lost a general.

Like many self-described reformers before him, Ahmed has grown addicted to power. He is not alone. In Somalia, President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo has likewise moved to undermine federalism and restore dictatorial control akin to what Somalia experienced during his uncle Siad Barre’s regime. What makes Ahmed so dangerous is that well-meaning Norwegians bestowed him with the mantle of peacemaker. As Ethiopia heads toward the delayed elections tentatively now rescheduled for June 5, 2021, Ahmed’s fight not only undercuts his chief rival, who happens to be Tigrayan but enables him to use emergency powers to further erode democracy.

It is time for Western countries and African democracies to speak directly about the dangerous path down which Ahmed has sent Ethiopia. Ethiopia is a diverse country, so a centralized dictatorship simply will not work. As Ahmed seeks to substitute nationalist polemics for competence, he appears ready to pick fights not only with Egypt and Sudan, but with Kenya as well. Ahmed’s growing dependence on China increasingly appears less about development and more about finding a backer who will bankroll Ethiopia’s further slide into autocracy. Simply put, increasingly it appears that Ahmed is not the youthful, reformist alternative to Eritrea’s Isaias, but rather his pupil. Isaias brought tragedy to Eritrea. The international community should not be blind as a power-hungry Ahmed risks the same with Ethiopia.

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a frequent author for the National Interest.

Suspected Chinese hackers stole camera footage from African Union

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Source: Reuters | Raphael Satter

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – As diplomats gathered at the African Union’s headquarters earlier this year to prepare for its annual leaders’ summit, employees of the international organization made a disturbing discovery.

Someone was stealing footage from their own security cameras.

Acting on a tip from Japanese cyber researchers, the African Union’s (AU) technology staffers discovered that a group of suspected Chinese hackers had rigged a cluster of servers in the basement of an administrative annex to quietly siphon surveillance videos from across the AU’s sprawling campus in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital.

The security breach was carried out by a Chinese hacking group nicknamed “Bronze President,” according to a five-page internal memo reviewed by Reuters. It said the affected cameras covered “AU offices, parking areas, corridors, and meeting rooms.”

“We cannot estimate the quantity and value of the data which have been stolen,” the memo continued, adding that while AU technicians had managed to interrupt the flow of data, the hackers could easily regain the upper hand.

“We are still weak to prevent another attack,” the memo said.

The alert, drafted in late January and circulated to senior officials, provides a glimpse of how world powers are jockeying for influence and visibility at the continent’s paramount pan-African organization. Some American and European officials have voiced concern as Beijing has stepped in to meet the AU’s needs – part of an Africa-wide shift that has seen China become the continent’s top creditor. Chinese workers built the AU’s showpiece new conference center in 2012 and Chinese technicians still help maintain the organization’s digital infrastructure.

The Chinese mission to the AU said in an email that “the AU side has not mentioned being hacked on any occasion” and that Africa and China are “good friends, partners and brothers.”

“We never interfere in Africa’s internal affairs and wouldn’t do anything that harms the interests of the African side,” the email said.

Repeated messages sent to AU spokesperson Ebba Kalondo asking about the January breach were marked as “read” but went unanswered.

Longstanding doubts over Beijing’s role at the AU spilled into the open in 2018, when French newspaper Le Monde reported here that AU employees had found that the servers at the new conference center were sending copies of their contents to Shanghai every night and that the building itself had been honeycombed with listening devices.

Both the AU and the Chinese government vehemently denied the report at the time, but a former AU official told Reuters the article in Le Monde was accurate and had put officials there on high alert over cyberespionage.

The former official said the latest breach was discovered following a tip from Japan’s Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT), which in a Jan. 17 email alerted AU officials to unusual traffic between the international organization’s network and a domain associated with Bronze President.

Koichiro Komiyama, who directs the global coordination division of Japan’s CERT, confirmed to Reuters that he sent the warning after a fellow researcher discovered the malicious traffic while picking through the hacking group’s old infrastructure.

The AU memo said that, within days of Komiyama’s email, the AU’s information technology team had traced the suspicious traffic to a set of servers in the basement of the organization’s Building C – part of an older complex across the road from the new conference center.

The memo said the hackers were able to siphon off “a huge volume of traffic” from the servers by hiding it in the regular flow of data leaving the AU’s network during business hours, even pausing their data theft during lunch.

Secureworks, an arm of Dell Technologies Inc which has been tracking Bronze President since 2018, confirmed that the malicious domain identified by Japan’s CERT was linked to the hackers.

Secureworks researcher Mark Osborn said his company had seen strong evidence that Bronze President operated from China, adding that it had been detected in several espionage campaigns targeting China’s neighbors, including Mongolia and India.

Any official protest over the spying is unlikely, according to the former AU official. He said China plays a critical role in keeping the organization running, including during an incident in June when part of the AU’s network was knocked out by a power failure and Chinese technicians swiftly repaired the damage.

For that reason, the former official expects that the surveillance camera incident – like the listening devices reported in 2018 – would be swept under the rug.

“Attacking the Chinese, for us, it’s a very bad idea,” he said.

 

Reporting by Raphael Satter; editing by Jonathan Weber and Edward Tobin