Ethiopia’s privatization program threatened by security risks

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(Ecofin Agency) – Ethiopia’s initiative to privatize public companies could be hampered by security risks.

“In recent months, the conflict between Ethiopia’s central government and the leaders of the Tigray region has dominated the news. Although federal government troops have regained control of Tigray, the conflict illustrates potentially serious flaws in Ethiopia’s federal system,” the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said.

The other conflict that could be of concern to investors interested in this privatization program is that between Ethiopia and its neighbors Egypt and Sudan over the Great Renaissance Dam (GERD). This project is however one of the strong pillars of the economic transformation of the country.

Reforms undertaken by the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, led to the decision to organize the very first democratic election slated for June 5, 2021. In Africa, this type of transition often does not go smoothly.

Beyond being a political line, the privatization of Ethiopian public enterprises has become a necessity. Already, the growth model based on public investment has begun to show limits, even before covid-19. Data from the IIF indicate that after average annual growth of 9.5% between 2011 and 2018, the Ethiopian economy grew by only 2.4% in 2019.

The other challenge facing Ethiopia’s public companies is the contingent debt they have accumulated. The debt of state-owned enterprises also affects the stability of the national financial system through the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, one of the country’s largest lenders. It has extended large loans to public enterprises at lower rates than private borrowers, the IIF says.

In such a scheme, foreign capital would help support the ongoing restructuring of the Ethiopian economy. The local government has pledged to allow minority private participation in some large public enterprises – including Ethiopian Airlines, EthioTelecom, and Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics Service Enterprise – and to fully privatize others. This announcement is being closely followed by large companies and investors targeting Africa.

Parents of Somali soldiers fear sons fighting in Ethiopia

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Mogadishu (AFP) | Somalia is under growing pressure to explain the fate of soldiers whose families fear they were secretly deployed from training camps in neighbouring Eritrea to fight in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region.

The government has strenuously denied allegations that Somali troops were sent to battlefields in Tigray, where Ethiopian federal troops have been fighting with regional forces since November.

But some lawmakers have written to Somalia’s president appealing for information on behalf of desperate parents who say their sons in uniform have gone missing, and they have reason to believe they could be in Tigray.

Hussein Ibrahim said his son was told he was going to Qatar for training, but wound up in Eritrea.

“I last spoke with my son 22 days ago. He told me he was fine but concerned, because some of his comrades were relocated from the camp and he didn’t know to where,” he said.

“I don’t know who to ask about his fate. There are reports everywhere that those taken to Eritrea were sent to fight in Ethiopia, and that some had died.”

Information minister Osman Abukar Dubbe on January 19 said “there were no Somali troops fighting in Tigray, and no such request made by the Ethiopian government”, describing reports to the contrary as “propaganda”.

– ‘Alive or not’? –

But the whereabouts of the missing soldiers remains unclear, and the plight of their families has struck a chord in Somalia and raised difficult questions for politicians preparing for a fraught national election which had been scheduled for next month but is beset with delays.

“We need the Somali president to hear our appeal, and tell us if our children are alive or not,” said Fadumo Moalim Abdulle, who believes her son was sent to Eritrea after being told he was going to Qatar.

In a letter dated January 18, the foreign relations committee asked President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, better known by his nickname Farmajo, for “details about the number of soldiers in Eritrea for training, and when they are coming back to the country”.

“We also understand that many parents have not been able to contact their children for some time, only to hear they were killed fighting in Tigray with government forces,” the letter stated.

“Confirm where these soldiers are now, and put them in touch with their parents.”

A military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that some recruits were sent to Eritrea for training “but these reports about Somali soldiers sent to Tigray are baseless”.

But Abdisalam Guleid, a former Somali deputy spy chief, told AFP that “Somalia had indeed entered the war, and that many soldiers had died,” citing intelligence from Ethiopian counterparts.

– ‘Hush hush’ –

After three weeks of fighting, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared victory in late November against the TPLF, the ruling party in Tigray, after the army captured the regional capital Mekele.

But the TPLF leadership remains on the run and has vowed to fight on. Thousands have died so far in the conflict, according to the International Crisis Group.

The fighting has raised concerns for stability in the wider Horn of Africa, with fears that Ethiopia’s neighbours could be dragged into a regional conflict.

Ethiopia last week denied the presence of Somali troops in Tigray, and continued to dismiss witness accounts of Eritrean involvement in the conflict.

“Ethiopia has never invited any of the neighbouring countries or others to be part of this conflict. This is an internal matter; the Ethiopian army has done it by itself,” said Dina Mufti, spokesman for Ethiopia’s foreign affairs ministry.

In December, the US State Department said it was “aware of credible reports of Eritrean military involvement in Tigray” and called for their withdrawal. This month the state-affiliated Ethiopian Human Rights Commission accused Eritrean troops of looting in Tigray.

Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 in large part for initiating a rapprochement with Eritrea, whose President Isaias Afwerki and the TPLF remain bitter enemies.

Abiy also forged a three-way regional security arrangement with Eritrea and Somalia.

Analysts say it is plausible small numbers of Eritrean-trained Somalis were sent to Tigray, given Eritrea’s long history of using regional forces under its tutelage for its own strategic gain.

“What’s clear is that troops have gone to Eritrea. Some have come back. But the government has never given any details about these troops, not even their numbers or the fact there are cohorts,” said one regional security analyst, who asked not to be named.

“It’s all hush hush.”

Retired US Ambassadors to Ethiopia write an open letter to Prime Minister Abiy

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Ethiopian Reporter | Four retired US ambassadors to Ethiopia write an open letter to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) stating their concerns about recent political developments in the country.

The letter sent exclusively to The Reporter is signed by Ambassadors David Shinn, Aurelia Brazeal, Vicki Huddleston, and Patricia Haslach.

The full content of the letter is presented below.

Open Letter to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from retired U.S. Ambassadors to Ethiopia

January 21, 2021

Dear Mr. Prime Minister:

We are former ambassadors who have served in Ethiopia during various political crossroads, and each of us are forever inspired by the resilience and principles of the Ethiopian people. At present, we are deeply concerned about the stability and future of Ethiopia, and so have taken the liberty to write to you about our concerns.

We have watched the conflict in Tigray with grave unease as, according to the United Nations, nearly 60,000 refugees have fled to Sudan, 2.2 million people have been displaced, and 4.5 million people need emergency assistance, many of whom are without adequate food. We are also worried about the reported presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray, which could jeopardize Ethiopia’s territorial integrity.

We are concerned about the worsening ethnic tensions throughout the country, reflected in the proliferation of hate speech and rising ethnic and religious violence. Based on our time in your country, this growing violence seems to us to be contrary to Ethiopia’s long-standing tradition of tolerance for diverse religions and ethnicities.

It is our hope, Mr. Prime Minister, that your government will ensure the protection of civilians, the independent investigation of human rights violations, and unrestricted access for the United Nations and other relief agencies. We would like to repeat the advice we often heard during each of our tenures in your country: Ethiopia needs a national dialogue designed to bring together all sectors of society. We wish you and every Ethiopian the very best.

Sincerely,

Hon. David H. Shinn
Ambassador: July 1996-August 1999

Hon. Aurelia E. Brazeal
Ambassador: November 2002-September 2005

Hon. Vicki J. Huddleston
Chargé d’Affaires: September 2005-November 2006

Hon. Patricia M. Haslach
Ambassador: September 2013-August 2016

US says Eritrean forces should leave Tigray immediately

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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The United States says all soldiers from Eritrea should leave Ethiopia’s embattled Tigray region “immediately.”

A State Department spokesperson in an email to The Associated Press late Tuesday cited “credible reports of looting, sexual violence, assaults in refugee camps and other human rights abuses.”

“There is also evidence of Eritrean soldiers forcibly returning Eritrean refugees from Tigray to Eritrea,” the spokesperson said.

The statement reflects new pressure by the Biden administration on the government of Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country with 114 million people and the anchor of the Horn of Africa, and other combatants as the deadly fighting in Tigray nears the three-month mark.

The AP this week cited witnesses who fled the Tigray region as saying Eritrean soldiers were looting, going house-to-house killing young men and even acting as local authorities. The Eritreans have been fighting on the side of Ethiopian forces as they pursue the fugitive leaders of the Tigray region, though Ethiopia’s government has denied their presence.

The U.S. stance has shifted dramatically from the early days of the conflict when the Trump administration praised Eritrea for its “restraint.”

The new U.S. statement calls for an independent and transparent investigation into alleged abuses. “It remains unclear how many Eritrean soldiers are in Tigray, or precisely where,” it says.

It was not immediately clear whether the U.S. has addressed its demand directly to Eritrean officials. And the office of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed did not immediately respond to questions.

Witnesses have estimated that the Eritrean soldiers number in the thousands. Eritrean officials have not responded to questions. The information minister for Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive countries, this week tweeted that “the rabid defamation campaign against Eritrea is on the rise again.“

The U.S. also seeks an immediate stop to the fighting in Tigray and “full, safe and unhindered humanitarian access” to the region, which remains largely cut off from the outside world, with Ethiopian forces often accompanying aid.

“We are gravely concerned by credible reports that hundreds of thousands of people may starve to death if urgent humanitarian assistance is not mobilized immediately,” the statement says.

The United Nations in its latest humanitarian update said it is receiving reports of “rising hunger” in Tigray and cited a “dire lack of access to food” since many farmers in the largely agricultural region missed the harvest because of the fighting, and as “critical staff” to scale up the humanitarian response can’t access the region. Transport, electricity, banking and other links “have yet to be restored in much of the region,” the U.N. said, and 78% of hospitals remain nonfunctional.

“Our concern is that what we don’t know could be even more disturbing,” U.N. children’s agency chief Henrietta Fore said in a statement Wednesday. “For 12 weeks, the international humanitarian community has had very limited access to conflict-affected populations across most of Tigray.”

Vaccinations have stopped across the region, Fore added.

The U.S. statement added that “dialogue is essential between the government and Tigrayans.” Ethiopia’s government has rejected dialogue with the former Tigray leaders, seeing them as illegitimate, and has appointed an interim administration.

The former Tigray leaders, in turn, objected to Ethiopia delaying a national election last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic and considered Abiy’s mandate over.

UNESCO Director-General urges probe into killing of Ethiopia journalist

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Jurist | UNESCO | Director-General condemns murder of journalist Dawit Kebede in Ethiopia. 

The Director-General of United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) , Audrey Azoulay, has called for an inquiry into the killing of journalist Dawit Kebede, who was found dead in Mekelle, the capital of the Ethiopian region of Tigray, on 19 January.

“I condemn the killing of Dawit Kebede. I call on the authorities to investigate this crime and bring its perpetrators to justice,” said Audrey Azoulay. “Impunity must not be allowed to embolden those who use violence to stop journalists from doing their job.”

Kebede, a journalist working for Tigray regional state television, was found dead in a car along with his friend, Bereket Berhe. Both had been shot in the head.

Kebede was a journalist for a Tigray regional state television outlet. Police allegedly detained Kebede on January 16 and questioned Kebede about his outlet’s coverage of the November conflict between federal troops and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

The Committee to Protect Journalists, an independent non-profit organization, echoed Azoulay’s statement. It too called upon Ethiopian authorities to conduct an investigation to “determine if it [the killing] was motivated by his work, and hold those responsible to account.”

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 68 – 27 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 26 January)

●  Eritrean Brigadier General Abraha Kassa, the Director of National Security for Eritrea, was in Addis Ababa today. Unconfirmed Information is reported of a new policy from Eritrea. All educated and “elite” Tigrayans should be ‘forced to flee’ or ‘squashed’ to remove all leadership from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

●  Demands in Ethiopia are growing that Ethiopia should defend its territorial sovereignty. However, this position is undermined by increasing numbers of Eritrean troops entering Tigray or consolidating their positions.

●  Yesterday a new trend was reported of clashes between the Eritrean and Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF), who are allies in the fight against the TPLF. The fighting between Eritrean forces and Ethiopian National Defence Forces has continued today in Kwiha, a suburb of Mekelle town.

●  Reported that 2 helicopters and six planes landed in Mekelle. Security at Mekelle airport is controlled by Eritrean troops. Reports of heavy gunshots around the city.

●  It is reported that the ENDF has sent reinforcements to Mekelle.

●  Telephone and telecom has been completely switched off again all over Tigray this afternoon.

●  A video circulating on social media shows Eritrean troops in Wukro town with vehicles commonly seen in the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF). Also donkeys are carrying equipment.

●  Reported that Eritrean troops who have amassed gold and wealth from looting in Tigray, are not planning to return to Eritrea, which is well known for its harsh conditions of indefinite national service and forced labour, extreme poverty, and lack of freedom.

●  While the administration in Addis Abeba is providing strong pressure regarding what should and should not be said in public, the interim administration increasingly admits the catastrophic situation on the ground in public and asks for support, risking disagreement with the capital.

●  Reported that an Eritrean gunship helicopter was shot down by Tigray regional forces at Hamedo, near Rama town at the border with Eritrea.

●  Regina Lynch, Aid to the Church in Need (ACN), reports on the massacre in Maryam Zion church in Aksum: ”those who have been able to visit the area are reporting the possible murder of 750 people in an assault on the Orthodox Church of St Mary of Zion in Aksum last November.” She states that “ACN has received confirmation of a series of killings and attacks on innocent people in many parts of Tigray, including in the Aksum area, and she said the population is terrified.”

Reported regional situation (as confirmed per 26 January)

●  Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, Dina Mufti, states that: “Ethiopia will only have negotiations with neighboring Sudan after its forces withdraw from Ethiopia’s territory”.

● Egypt Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, states that “Egypt will not allow any attempt to impose the policy of fait accompli and will not allow any party to control the Nile River”, in remarks to the Egyptian Parliament today. This is as reports circulate that Ethiopia is starting to fill the GERD dam.

●  The foreign minister said Egypt attaches great importance to the issue of the GERD in order to maintain its water rights: “Egypt took part in a series of talks out of its belief in the importance of reaching a binding legal agreement on filling and operating the dam.”

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 26 January)

●  Kenya’s former electoral commissioner, Roselyn Akombe, is taking up the key post at UNDP in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia as the UN Development Programme as the governance and peace building coordinator.

●  EU Council meets and High Representative, Joseph Borell, reports that the EU Foreign Ministers agreed on the urgent need to prevent further destabilisation in the Horn. Foreign Ministers were briefed on the situation in Tigray, and the Sudanese-Ethiopian border. The Foreign Ministers agreed that there will be more political pressure in order to settle the dispute through diplomatic and peaceful means.

●  The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland, Pekka Haavisto, will travel as an EU Envoy in order to visit the region in early February, together with Amb. Alexander Rondos, the EU Special Representative.

●  The DG of UNESCO, Audrey Azoulay, calls for an inquiry into the killing of journalist Dawit Kebede. She condemned the killing and calls on the authorities to investigate this crime and bring its perpetrators to justice. The journalist was killed in Mekelle on 19 January.

●  The EU Parliament joint meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee and Development Committee discusses the situation in Ethiopia and Tigray. The Ambassador of Ethiopia to the EU, Hirut Zemene, states that the humanitarian work to reach 2.5 people is on the way. The main problem is insufficient trucks, but, according to the Ambassador the food is in Tigray and the bottleneck is only a distribution problem.

●  It is recalled that in December EEPA reported that all available trucks from Tigray, and trucks from Tigray in Djibouti port, were dispossessed and taken to Addis Ababa.

●  Four retired US ambassadors to Ethiopia wrote an open letter to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy, stating their concerns about recent political developments in the country.

●  The letter states “We have watched the conflict in Tigray with grave unease as, according to the United Nations, nearly 60,000 refugees have fled to Sudan, 2.2 million people have been displaced, and 4.5 million people need emergency assistance, many of whom are without adequate food. We are also worried about the reported presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray, which could jeopardize Ethiopia’s territorial integrity”.

●  “We are concerned about the worsening ethnic tensions throughout the country, reflected in the proliferation of hate speech and rising ethnic and religious violence. This growing violence seems to us to be contrary to Ethiopia’s long-standing tradition of tolerance for diverse religions and ethnicities”, the ambassadors added.

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Sudanese patrol shelled by Ethiopian forces. Ethiopia asks Sudan to pull troops out for border talks

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Sudanese patrol shelled by Ethiopian forces.

Tension has escalated between Sudan, Ethiopia along their borderline.

A Sudanese patrol came under shelling from Ethiopian forces on Sunday near the border with Ethiopia, according to local media.

Sudan Tribune news portal, citing a military source, said mortar shells were fired by Ethiopian forces at the patrol in the eastern Al-Gadaref province.

No injuries were reported and the Sudanese military has yet to issue an official statement.

The attack came amid rising tensions between Khartoum and Addis Ababa over their borderline.

Last week, Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok informed UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that Sudanese forces were deployed within the country’s borders. Hamdok stressed that Khartoum was not seeking war with Addis Ababa.

Sudan accuses Ethiopia of supporting militias that attack Sudanese army forces in the border area, an accusation denied by Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia asks Sudan to pull troops out for border talks

Ethiopia on Tuesday reiterated its call for Sudan to pull back from disputed territories its troops have been in since late last year.

In late December, Sudanese soldiers reportedly moved up to 40 kilometers (25 miles) into Ethiopian-held territories, including the contested fertile agricultural region of Al-Fashaga, which Ethiopia called an act of blackmail by its western neighbor.

Ethiopia then launched a diplomatic effort to get Sudanese forces out of the territories to promote a return to the normal mechanisms of dialogue to resolve the century-long border dispute.

“Ethiopia is committed to a peaceful resolution of the border differences with Sudan,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti told a weekly news briefing.

Any possibility of mediation would require Sudan to pull its forces to positions prior to late December, when Ethiopia first signaled a breach of its borders, he added.

“We have had mechanisms, technical and political committees,” he said, adding that the two countries need to get back to those resolution mechanisms through dialogue.

Asked how long Ethiopia would maintain a diplomatic stance while Sudan remains in the contested territories, Dina said: “We will cross that river when we come to it.”

Sudanese military leaders have not shown any sign of heeding Ethiopia’s call, though, and reiterate they reclaimed their own territories.

The Horn of Africa nation decries how Sudan, otherwise considered a friendly neighbor, took the move when Ethiopia’s defense forces were busy dealing with the outlawed Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) after it stormed the federal army’s Northern Command last year, killing soldiers and looting military hardware

Departing US Envoy Warns Ethiopia Against Violence

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VOA News | ADDIS ABABA – Calling Ethiopia “the critical actor in Horn of Africa stability,” outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia Michael Raynor voiced confidence in a strengthened bilateral relationship but warned that violence – especially in the northern Tigray region – threatens the country’s progress.

“We remain concerned about ethnic violence around the country and the threat it poses to achieving the country’s potential,” Raynor said of Ethiopia, speaking at a press conference Monday in Addis Ababa, the capital.

It was Raynor’s final news briefing as ambassador, a post he has held since September 2017. He has focused on Africa for many of his 30-plus years as a diplomat.

Rivalries among some of Ethiopia’s 80 ethnic groups have spawned deadly violence, including the Jan. 12 killings of more than 80 civilians in Metekel, a town in the western Benishangul-Gumaz region, the Associated Press reported, citing information from the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission.

Raynor said the U.S. government also is “particularly alarmed by the ongoing situation in Tigray,” where Ethiopian federal forces launched a military operation in early November to put down a rebellion by regional forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.  Ethiopia’s government said that it had regained control of the region by late November, but reports of extrajudicial killings and other sporadic violence have continued to filter out.

Since the conflict’s outbreak, more than 58,000 have fled northern Ethiopia for neighboring Tigray, the International Organization for Migration reported Monday. While thousands are believed to have been killed and many more internally displaced, numbers are difficult to verify because of limited communications with, and access to, Tigray. The United Nations estimates that roughly 4.5 million people in Tigray desperately need food, medicine and other basics, and U.N. agencies have criticized Ethiopian authorities for blocking humanitarian aid.

“After almost three months, we’re still not seeing enough humanitarian assistance reach the most vulnerable areas,” Raynor told journalists. “Much more needs to be done, and urgently, to ensure humanitarian organizations – both Ethiopian and international – have full and secure access to the region to provide lifesaving support to the millions of people who are suffering.”

The U.N’s special representative on sexual violence, Pramila Patten, last week released a statement that she was “greatly concerned by serious allegations of sexual violence” in the region.

Raynor acknowledged that concern, saying the U.S. government continues “to call on all parties to cease any hostilities, ensure the protection of all civilians in Tigray, including refugees and humanitarian workers, and to uphold international human rights and humanitarian law.”

He also brought up the U.S. assessment that soldiers from Eritrea were helping Ethiopian federal forces in Tigray, despite Ethiopian authorities’ denials.

“We continue to be troubled by the activities of Eritrean actors in the Tigray region,” Raynor said, “and we continue to call for an immediate halt to — and independent investigations of — all credible reports of atrocities. sexual violence, human rights violations of all kinds in Tigray and other places.”

Improved bilateral relations

Raynor said that when Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in April 2018, replacing Hailemariam Desalegn after 23 years and introducing an array of reforms, “there was a fundamental reset, a realignment of core values fully in sync with U.S. core values, both in terms of economic opportunity and job creation and in terms of political space and respect for rights. So that formed a strong basis for us to expand our engagement.”

During his tenure as ambassador, Raynor said, the U.S. government “brought well over $3 billion” to support Ethiopia’s governance, development and humanitarian priorities. These range from enhancing the country’s food security and health systems to reforming judicial activities and updating economic policies to encourage private investment.

Raynor also observed that Ethiopia’s ability “to focus on our areas of partnership has been strained by some degree due to the rate of ethnic tensions and Ethiopian-on-Ethiopian violence and certainly the current Tigray crisis. But by and large I feel very optimistic about the trajectory we have been on and that my successor will be able to build upon.”

A successor has not yet been named.

“This is a pivotal time for Ethiopia,” Raynor said. “What Ethiopia does in the coming months — particularly in promoting democracy, organizing free and fair credible elections this year, protecting basic human rights including freedom of the press and freedom of expression, resolving conflict and addressing ethnic tension, maintaining regional harmony and promoting economic opportunity — will impact this country’s prospects for generations to come.”

Sudan Responds with Force to Border Attack from Ethiopia

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Asharq Al-Awsat | The Sudanese military responded with artillery fire to an attack from Ethiopia against its forces deployed on a share border region with its neighbor.

Ethiopian forces struck the Jabal Abutiour border region on Sunday. The area is controlled by Sudan. No casualties were reported.

Amid the clashes, a military delegation, headed by chief of staff Mohammed Othman al-Hussein, headed to the border region to assess the latest developments and military operations.

The fighting took place despite statements from Khartoum and Addis Ababa that they wanted to avoid a border war. They instead stressed the need for negotiations to defuse tensions.

Ethiopia has, however, conditioned that the military withdraw from regions that were recaptured. Sudan has rejected any negotiations on the border, saying its forces are controlling their country’s territories.

It also says that the borders are recognized internationally and all that remains is to set the markers that have been removed due to the nature of the area. It urged the need to set the markers within close distances from each other whereby each point can be seen from the next with the naked eye.

Sudanese Defense Minister Yassin Ibrahim Yassin told Al Arabiya that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s remarks about “disputed regions” prompted Khartoum to dispatch military units to impose their control over Sudanese regions on the border.

Yassin slammed the PM’s remarks over the alleged border dispute, saying the borders are “clearly demarcated according to international agreements.”

He also refused to link the border developments to the stalled negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

“The common factor in both these issues is Ethiopia’s stalling,” he charged. “We do not acknowledge a dispute in the first place so negotiations are not valid.”

Tensions have been high on the border since December after the Sudanese military redeployed its forces in the al-Fashqa region, expelling Ethiopian militias that were controlling it.

The move was prompted by an attack by the militias against Sudanese forces.

The Three-Country Alliance Against Tigray Might Jeopardize Ethiopia’s Future – Analysis

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Eurasia Review | Martin Plaut

The Tigray war has turned into an all-out conflict, pitting Tigrayan forces loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation front (TPLF) against Ethiopian federal troops, the Eritrean army, Amhara militia and – as revealed last week – Somali soldiers.

Despite what would seem to be overwhelming odds against them, the Tigrayans appear to be holding their own in large areas of the region.

Both Eritrea and Somalia routinely deny any involvement in the war, but the evidence of their presence is strong.

On December 8, Reuters reported that “a U.S. government source and five regional diplomats” told them the US believes Eritrean soldiers have crossed into Ethiopia. The EU and UK support this assessment.

A senior Ethiopian general confirmed that Eritrean troops were in Tigray. Major General Belay Seyoum, head of the Northern Command, described the presence of foreign forces on Ethiopian soil as “painful”.

The Eritrea-Ethiopia-Somali alliance

The alliance has its origins in the ending of hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Much of the groundwork for this rapprochement was done by the United States, with Donald Yamamoto playing a critical role behind the scenes, although Washington could hardly have envisaged where this would lead.

On July 8-9, 2018 Prime Minister Abiy visited Asmara to seal the peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia. In the same month, the ice between Eritrea and Somalia was broken, with a three-day visit by Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed to Asmara. It was the first visit by a Somali president to Eritrea since it gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993. The two nations have not had diplomatic ties in nearly 15 years.

Abdinur Mohamed, a spokesman for the Somali president, said on Twitter that the country “is ready to write a new chapter of its relations with Eritrea.” Economic and security concerns are at the top of the agenda, as well as “regional issues of interest to both countries,” Eritrea’s information ministry said.

There were further bilateral visits in August 2018 and April 2019. This culminated in a summit between the leaders of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia on January 27, 2020, held in Asmara.

The communique committed the three leaders to consolidate “peace, stability, and security as well as promoting economic and social development. They also agreed to bolster their joint efforts to foster effective regional cooperation.”

There was no press conference at which the details of the agreement might be explained. The public was left in the dark about what the leaders were planning.

Further meetings took place in the run-up to the outbreak of war in Tigray:

  • Prime Minister Abiy made a rare visit to the Eritrea main training base at Sawa in July 2020.
  • Somali President Farmajo arrived in Asmara on 4 October.
  • President Isaias went to Ethiopia on October 14-15. This trip included seeing the Ethiopian air-force base at Bishofu.

Within three weeks, on November 4, 2020, the Tigray war erupted. Is it credible that the war was not discussed, and a strategy agreed between the three leaders at these meetings?

War aims

The first priority of the alliance is to remove the Tigrayan administration from Tigray. President Isaias has long loathed the TPLF. This goes back to the 1970’s and 80’s when the Eritreans and Tigrayans fell out over ideology, tactics and strategy.

Prime Minister Abiy also wants to rid himself of the vestiges of power of the previous Ethiopian government, which the TPLF controlled. He is attempting to reverse their policy of “ethnic federalism.”

Beyond this, outlines of a plan were revealed when information was leaked about a meeting held by President Isaias just prior to the outbreak of the war.

According to reports citing well-placed sources, President Isaias brought together his closest confidantes on the eve of the Tigray war. He said that Eritrea had to accept that it had a small economy and a lengthy Red Sea coast that it cannot patrol on its own. He suggested forming some sort of “union” with Ethiopia, at least in terms of economic co-operation and maritime security.

If accurate, President Isaias appeared to have echoed Abiy’s grandiose dream of re-establishing the old empire-state of Ethiopia. This includes suggestions that the Ethiopian navy could be reconstructed – a proposal supported by France. This would require the use of Eritrean ports which were once home to the Imperial Ethiopian Navy.

The idea of some form of union may not be as far-fetched as it would appear, despite the fact Isaias previously led Eritrea’s decades-long war to gain independence from Ethiopia.

It should not be forgotten that when President Isaias made his first visit to Addis Ababa in July 2018 he made what many Eritreans regarded as an extraordinary offer: for a joint administration of both countries.

“This is a historic day for all of us,” President Isaias Afwerki said. “Anyone who thinks the people of Eritrea and Ethiopia are separated is considered as naïve from now on.”  In a speech, Abiy said the countries had agreed to develop together and that Isaias had offered to help “lead this great nation.” He added that “we have finally found our sister nation after many years of hiding.”

This vision – of co-suzerainty – or a revised form of federation, appears to be behind the current conflict.

Regional blocs

In September 2020 Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia held their third trilateral meeting. They proposed to form a new regional bloc, which has been referred to as the “Horn of Africa Cooperation”.

The flaw in this proposal was commented on at the time. “Creating an economic and political bloc may seem a solution to bring peace and boost trade. But it risks sparking distrust from other East African countries, and with the other regional body, IGAD,” the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which Eritrea has long distrusted.

The Horn of Africa Cooperation could be linked to the wider ambition of the Saudis to extend their influence in the Horn of Africa. The “Council of the Arab and African States bordering the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden” was launched in January 2020. This new Arab-African alliance has eight members: Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Jordan and Yemen.

Conclusion

These plans depend on succeeding to crush the Tigrayans. At the moment this appears a distant prospect, despite Prime Minister Abiy’s assertion in November that it was little more than a “law enforcement”  operation that would soon be over.

If the war goes badly, and Eritrea, Somalia and the rest of Ethiopia becomes sucked into the conflict, the conflict could threaten the future of Ethiopia itself.  This was the warning from senior African experts at the US Institute of Peace.

“As members of the bipartisan senior study group on peace and security in the Red Sea arena, we are watching with grave concern the situation in Ethiopia. While many of the facts remain unclear, the risks of escalation are certain: Intrastate or interstate conflict would be catastrophic for Ethiopia’s people and for the region and would pose a direct threat to international peace and security.

The acceleration of polarization amid violent conflict would also mark the death knell for the country’s nascent reform effort that began two years ago and the promise of a democratic transition that it heralded.

As we cautioned in the study group’s Final Report and Recommendations released on October 29, the fragmentation of Ethiopia would be the largest state collapse in modern history. Ethiopia is five times the size of pre-war Syria by population, and its breakdown would lead to mass interethnic and interreligious conflict; a dangerous vulnerability to exploitation by extremists; an acceleration of illicit trafficking, including of arms; and a humanitarian and security crisis at the crossroads of Africa and the Middle East on a scale that would overshadow any existing conflict in the region, including Yemen.

As Ethiopia is currently the leading Troop Contributing Country to the United Nations and the African Union peacekeeping missions in Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia, its collapse would also significantly impact the efforts by both to mitigate and resolve others conflicts in the Horn of Africa.”