Ethiopia arrests 15 over UAE embassy attack plot: Reports

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Al Jazeera | The country’s intelligence and security service said suspects were working on direction of foreigners, local media report.

Ethiopia’s state-run media have said authorities arrested 15 people over a plot to attack the United Arab Emirates’ embassy in the capital, Addis Ababa.

The Ethiopian Press Agency (EPA) on Wednesday cited a statement from the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) as saying that the suspects were working on foreigners’ direction.

An unspecified amount of arms, explosives and documents were seized during the operation, according to the statement, which was also cited in a report by the state-affiliated FANA news outlet.

“The group took the mission from a foreign terrorist group and was preparing to inflict significant damage on properties and human lives,” EPA said.

There was no immediate comment by the UAE’s foreign ministry or its embassy in Addis Ababa.

A second group of suspects was planning to attack the UAE’s diplomatic mission in neighbouring Sudan, the EPA said.

Ethiopia’s NISS was working with its Sudanese counterparts on that aspect of the plot, the agency said. There was no immediate comment from Sudanese authorities.

In its report, FANA cited the statement as saying that a man named “Ahmed Ismael, who is the leader of the terrorist group and a resident of Sweden, was arrested in Sweden as a result of exchange of information with European, African, and Asian security services”.

The UAE has played a key diplomatic role in bringing longtime foes Ethiopia and Eritrea since Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s prime minister in 2018, while also providing financial contributions to stabilise Ethiopia’s economy.

Sudan army clashes with Ethiopia forces, regains control of seized borderland

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MEMO | Border clashes between the Sudanese army and Ethiopian forces were renewed in Al-Fashqa Al-Sughra on Thursday. Sudanese sources have confirmed that the army has regained control of new lands previously seized by Ethiopian forces.

The clashes that took place on Thursday were confirmed by Sudanese local media, the Sudan Tribune, Al-Sudani and Altaghyeer, reporting that fatalities and injuries occurred on the Sudanese side due to the fighting.

The Sudan Tribune reported that the Sudanese army on Thursday recovered an area on the borders following clashes with Ethiopian forces and militias in Al-Fashqa Al-Sughra, resulting in one death and eight injuries in the Sudanese forces.

The news website quoted military sources stating that the army managed to re-control the area of Cumbo Melkamu located in Al-Fashqa Al-Sughra, adjacent to the border strip with the Ethiopian Amhara region.

The news was also confirmed by Altaghyeer newspaper, quoting a military source stating: “The army forces liberated one of the Sudanese areas on the eastern borders.”

The military source confirmed that the area of Cumbo Melkamu had also been re-controlled by Sudanese troops.

Al-Sudani newspaper quoted eyewitnesses in the village of Barakat Noreen, claiming that Ethiopian forces attacked Sudanese forces, who responded and took control of the territory.

Recently, the borders between Khartoum and Addis Ababa witnessed significant developments, which led to an intervention by the Sudanese army with the aim of “regaining control of all of its territories.”

Sudan previously accused Ethiopia of supporting militias in usurping its lands, while Addis Ababa denied the allegations, amid stalled border demarcation negotiations between the two sides.

On 19 December, Sudan announced sending military reinforcements to the border area with Ethiopia, to “regain control over its usurped lands from an Ethiopian militia” in Al-Fashqa.

Prior to that, on 16 December, the Sudanese army announced the fall of casualties and losing military equipment in an attack launched by an Ethiopian militia in lands near Al-Fashqa.

The conflict in Al-Fashqa border area has been ongoing for decades, but it was limited to incidents between Ethiopian and Sudanese farmers, as Ethiopian gunmen frequently attacked Sudanese farmers for the purpose of looting and plundering. According to Khartoum, many were killed and injured in these aggressions.

The exceptionally fertile lands of Al-Fashqa are divided into three regions: Al-Fashqa Al-Kubra, Al-Fashqa Al-Sughra and the Southern Region.

Five Steps the Biden Administration Needs to Take on the Crisis in Tigray

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Just Security | The unfolding crisis in northern Ethiopia bears all the hallmarks of a human rights and humanitarian catastrophe. Since November, more than 6 million people have been trapped between the guns of Ethiopia’s military forces, marauding Eritrean troops, Amharan militia, and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The vast majority are now in urgent need of assistance. Yet the Ethiopian government continues to present a narrative that all is well in the north while effectively blocking relief aid. The Biden administration will need to move quickly to avoid further devastation in Tigray.

Much of Tigray remains under an information blackout. But not total. MSF has exposed the situation in Adigrat, a city in eastern Tigray. Witnesses speak of mass atrocities, of wanton extra-judicial killings, and gender violence. Ethiopian and Eritrean forces stand accused of targeting refugees and of deliberately razing their camps to the ground. The United States has demanded that Eritrea withdraw its troops from the region, but to little effect.

The humanitarian toll is already staggering. Two-plus million people have been internally displaced. Over four and a half million desperately need aid. A leaked government document quoted a regional government official acknowledging that people were starving. Medical doctors were said to be pleading for supplies, and body bags. Other reports highlight the fears of an exploding number of COVID-19 cases. In private, a senior United Nations official warned, “It is so bad, I can’t believe what I’ve seen. And there is no capacity, there are no supplies, and even if we had both of those there is no access.”

One hesitates to surmise what is happening across vast swathes of the region where journalists and aid workers cannot go. Ethiopia has a troubled history of blockading relief assistance to civilian populations in the midst of conflict. In decades past, the central government in Addis Ababa destroyed humanitarian stockpiles or otherwise prevented aid from reaching the people of Tigray as part of its counterinsurgency strategy against the TPLF. In the end, it was the people living there that starved – not the insurgents. History is once again at risk of repeating itself.

So far, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the conflict with Eritrea, has been largely impervious to outside pressure, as has Debretsion Gebremichael and the TPLF rebels he leads. The African Union sought to curb the slide to war in November, then largely disengaged. The Trump administration weighed in late in the game and in muted tones. European leaders have denounced atrocities in Tigray and have suspended $100 million in budget support for Ethiopia. But these efforts have yet to be sequenced into a coordinated diplomatic strategy to pressure Abiy to do the right thing.

All this must change – and quickly. The good news is that the Biden administration has already been more engaged and outspoken than its predecessor. The United States must now move swiftly and in concert with its partners and allies to prevent Ethiopia from fully collapsing and the country falling into the abyss. Key members of the Biden’s Cabinet have important roles to play.

First, incoming U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, can call on the U.N. Emergency Relief Coordinator and the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to provide the U.N. Security Council with frank and comprehensive briefings on the humanitarian and human rights situation in areas under the control of the Ethiopian army and forces allied with it, as well as areas under the control of the TPLF. The briefings must then be followed by concrete action. To date, the U.N. Security Council has taken up the situation in Tigray three times, but its members have failed to issue even so much as a statement.

Second, Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield can also push the U.N. Emergency Directors to meet and declare Tigray an “L3 Emergency” – the highest level of urgency that allows the U.N. humanitarian agencies to quickly mobilize staff and resources. This move should also trigger a special urgent donor appeal for the crisis in Tigray outside of the annual country Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), which do not include those who have sought refuge in neighboring Sudan. To be effective, this appeal will require early and urgent funding to make a difference.

Third, it’s time to send in the humanitarians. In recent years, the government, donors, U.N., and NGOs in Ethiopia used development frameworks and systems to respond to short-term needs caused from drought, flood, and the like. It would be easy to fall back on that model for this crisis, but that would be a mistake. Aid agencies need to flip the emergency switch and bring in dedicated humanitarian teams with the requisite skillsets and capacities. To this end, incoming USAID Administrator Samantha Power should send a DART team – America’s premier crisis response tool – to address the situation in Tigray. The scale, urgency, and complexity of the crisis certainly justify – if not require – the deployment of a DART.

Fourth, the White House must continue to press Eritrea to pull its forces back across the border. It also needs to push for the Ethiopian government to set the conditions in which relief groups can save lives. This means unfettered and blanket access to all affected communities. Ethiopia should issue 6-month visas for relief groups and expedite customs clearances for humanitarian supplies. In addition, humanitarians must be allowed to communicate in the information blackhole Tigray has become. The Ethiopian government must allow aid agencies to deploy telecommunications, including cell towers, sat phones, and HF/VHF radio.

Fifth, Secretary of State Antony Blinken must urgently appoint a special envoy for the Horn of Africa to help oversee a regional diplomatic strategy. Blinken has already told senators that he would consider such a move. A special envoy could also help coordinate efforts of the African Union, the European Union, and Ethiopia’s bilateral benefactors to bring concerted pressure to bear on Abiy and all parties to the conflict to make progress on the humanitarian situation and invest in a national political dialogue in advance of elections now scheduled for June of this year.

There is still time to pull back from the brink, but not much. Without an immediate infusion of assistance, to all areas of Tigray, a humanitarian crisis will become a humanitarian catastrophe the likes of which Ethiopia has not seen in a generation.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 78 – 06 February 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 05 February)

● Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, states that the situation in Tigray continues to be extremely alarming and is deteriorating rapidly.

● Dujarric states that the humanitarian response is entirely inadequate to the needs.

● The spokesperson states that humanitarian access remains restricted due to bureaucratic obstacles and due to insecurity on the ground.

● Humanitarian aid workers are prevented from accessing and helping victims from the conflict.

● According to the UN, 80 humanitarian workers are ready in Addis Ababa to travel to Tigray but are stuck in Addis Ababa for a month as they have not been receiving the necessary permits.

● Whilst 250.000 people have been reached, 4.2 million people need food aid and other assistance.

● Especially people in rural areas are not being reached by the aid efforts.

● The UN is assisting victims of gender-based violence across the Amhara and Tigray region.

● Fewer than one third out of the total number of people that the UN and humanitarian partners are trying to reach have access to water.

● Father Mussie Zerai, a priest of the Archdiocese of Asmara, Eritrea, says: “Today there is hunger in Tigray. There is talk of starvation in Tigray, because there are many areas not reached by humanitarian aid. I fear that hunger is being used as a tool of punishment and to force all forms of resistance to surrender. All of this is a crime against humanity.”

● Father Mussie Zerai, who works with migrants, states that 10,000 Eritrean refugees under international protection in Tigray were deported back to Eritrea by Eritrean troops. The refugees were under the protection of Ethiopia which failed to prevent the deportations.

● The Eritrean refugees that have been deported, were sheltered in two camps, Shemelba and Hitsats in Tigray, Ethiopia. Fr Mussie Zerai said that 10,000 of the refugees were deported to Eritrea.

● The Eritrean refugees which are deported to Eritrea face punishment, torture and indefinite compulsary national services, a form of forced labour, which the UN has classified as a Crime against Humanity.

● The Eritrean refugees had fled political persecution, compulsory indefinite military service, classified as a Crime against Humanity.

● UNHCR spokesperson, Mr. Baloch, states that UNHCR estimates that 15-20,000 refugees from the two camps are dispersed in areas where UNHCR does not have access.

● Baloch states that UNHCR workers have not had access to the two refugee camps in Tigray, Shemelba and Hitsats. It has been reported that the camps are entirely destroyed and made uninhabitable.

● The UN special adviser on the prevention of genocide, Alice Wairimu Nderitu, said on Friday that she has received reports of “serious human rights violations and abuses, committed by the parties to the conflict in the Tigray region and their allies. These include extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, looting of property, mass executions and impeded humanitarian access.”

● Nderitu is alarmed by “the continued escalation of ethnic violence in Ethiopia and allegations of serious violations of international humanitarian law and human rights in the Tigray region.”

● Nderitu states that “if urgent measures are not immediately taken to address the ongoing challenges facing the country, the risk of atrocity crimes in Ethiopia remains high and likely to get worse.”

Reported international situation (as confirmed per 05 February)

● European Parliament will debate the situation in Tigray in plenary on Thursday 11 February. The European Union has been active in addressing the crisis in Tigray, with concerted actions from the EU institutions and Member States.

● EU Member States have been able to ensure that the dramatic situation in Tigray has remained on the agenda of the UN Security Council during the last three months.

● Experts call on the US to also step up actions in concertation with the AU and the EU.

● It is suggested that incoming U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, could call on the U.N. Emergency Relief Coordinator and the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to provide the U.N. Security Council with “frank and comprehensive briefings on the humanitarian and human rights situation in areas under the control of the Ethiopian army and forces allied with it, as well as areas under the control of the TPLF.”

● Experts suggest that Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield can push the U.N. Emergency Directors to meet and declare Tigray an “L3 Emergency” – this is “the highest level of urgency that allows the U.N. humanitarian agencies to quickly mobilize staff and resources.”

● A L3 emergency move should also “trigger a special urgent donor appeal for the crisis in Tigray outside of the annual country Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), which do not include those who have sought refuge in neighboring Sudan. To be effective, this appeal will require early and urgent funding to make a difference.”

● The experts advise that USAID Administrator Samantha Power should send a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) to address the situation in Tigray: “The scale, urgency, and complexity of the crisis certainly justify – if not require – the deployment of a DART.”

● Experts emphasize that the White House should press Eritrea to pull its forces back across the border in Eritrea and withdraw all troops from Tigray.

● Experts advise that Secretary of State Antony Blinken must “urgently appoint a special envoy for the Horn of Africa to help oversee a regional diplomatic strategy. Blinken has already told senators that he would consider such a move. A special envoy could also help coordinate efforts of the African Union, the European Union, and Ethiopia’s bilateral benefactors.”

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

US pledges support for Ethiopia’s reforms

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MEMO | US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced his government’s continued assistance to Ethiopia’s ongoing reform measures, Anadolu Agency reports.

After a phone call with Blinken on Friday, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Twitter: “Our aspirations to democratize and build a multidimensional prosperous & peaceful country for all will be enhanced through strengthened Ethiopia-US relations.”

A statement by the US State Department said Blinken stressed the significance of the US-Ethiopia bilateral relations.

“Secretary Blinken expressed our grave concern about the humanitarian crisis in the Tigray region and urged immediate, full, and unhindered humanitarian access to prevent further loss of life,” the statement added.

“The secretary also reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Ethiopia’s reform agenda and our support for upcoming national elections, regional peace and security, democracy and human rights, justice and accountability, and economic prosperity for all Ethiopians,” it noted.

Ex-Peace Corps volunteers plead with US for help on Tigray

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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — More than 350 former Peace Corps volunteers and a trio of former U.S. ambassadors have written to U.S. congressmen urging them to condemn the violence in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, warning that “as the fighting ostensibly winds down, we are quite sure that the war will continue on a much more pernicious level.”

The letter seen by The Associated Press also asks lawmakers to press for humanitarian aid to all parts of Tigray, urge the United Nations to investigate and advocate for media access to the region “to document human rights abuses.”

Communications links remain difficult to parts of the Tigray region of some 6 million people, and only a small number of former volunteers have reached friends there. But “we have avoided explicit discussions on what is occurring due to safety concerns and our acute awareness that the Ethiopian government is monitoring all calls,” Isabella Olson, a former volunteer who helped to organize the letter, said in an email to the AP.

Ethiopia’s government has not responded to the letter, she said. The concern about monitoring has been echoed by Tigrayans and others in Ethiopia who say they have faced harassment and ethnic profiling since the conflict began.

As the fighting enters its fourth month, international pressure increases on Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country and the anchor of the Horn of Africa, to allow the world to see the effects of the alleged massacres, widespread looting and destruction of health centers, crops and houses of worship. Starvation is now a growing concern.

The fighting began in early November between Ethiopian and allied forces and those of the Tigray region who dominated the government for almost three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018. Each side now views the other as illegitimate.

Ethiopia’s government on Wednesday rejected new reports citing Tigray opposition groups as estimating that 52,000 civilians have been killed in the conflict. The government said “we have not found ourselves with significant civilian casualties,” but it did not say how many people have died.

The letter from former Peace Corps volunteers and diplomats urges lawmakers to remember that the strongest allies of the U.S. “are not simply constituted of politicians in Addis Ababa. They are also the students, teachers, farmers and healthcare workers that Peace Corps volunteers collaborated with in the urban and rural communities currently embroiled in turmoil.”

Full Coverage: Ethiopia
Tigrayans reached by the AP in recent weeks have reported fear and exhaustion as the fighting continues and few know the fate of relatives elsewhere in the region. Meanwhile, Ethiopian senior officials have asserted to Biden administration staffers that life is returning to normal.

“It just feels like it’s not my country anymore,” said Danait, a woman who felt her home in the regional capital, Mekele, shake when a nearby church was bombarded weeks ago. “It’s been like 90 days, and nothing is back to normal.” She gave only her first name out of concern for family members.

Ethiopian politician facing terror trial goes on hunger strike

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AFP | A prominent Ethiopian opposition politician charged last year with terrorism faces “permanent health problems” after going on hunger strike for more than a week, his lawyer told AFP Friday.

Jawar Mohammed, a member of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress, is one of around 20 suspects facing trial for terrorism and other offences in connection with several days of grisly violence that left more than 100 people dead last June and July.

The violence erupted after the shooting death in late June of Hachalu Hundessa, a popular singer from the Oromo ethnic group, Ethiopia’s largest, who channelled Oromo feelings of political and economic marginalisation.

Jawar and Bekele Gerba, another Oromo opposition leader, have been on hunger strike for eight days, while the other defendants “are on their sixth day now”, lawyer Tuli Bayyisa said.

Their demands include improved treatment for visiting family and supporters and, more broadly, an end to legal and other harassment of Oromo opposition politicians, Tuli said.

“They said, ‘This is the only option that we have as far as we are in prison. This is the only means we have to show our peaceful resistance to what is going on in the country,'” Tuli said.

On Thursday the men appeared in court but were too weak to stand, he said.

“They were very, very weak. They have private doctors, and their doctors…. said their health condition is in a critical situation now. Unless the situation is reversed they are going to face some permanent health problems,” he said.

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, a government-affiliated but independent body, on Friday said it had visited the defendants in Addis Ababa and confirmed they were on hunger strike.

“Very close supervision is required to prevent any grave threat to their health and life,” chief commissioner Daniel Bekele said in a statement, adding that “reasonably justified demands of the prisoners must be addressed”.

Jawar was once seen as an ally of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s first Oromo ruler.

But he has since accused Abiy of being a poor advocate of ethnic Oromos’ interests and behaving like a dictator.

Jawar is one of several high-profile opposition politicians behind bars as Ethiopia gears up for long-awaited national elections currently planned for June.

Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) Press Release – 05/02/2021

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ADDIS ABABA: SITUATION OF PRISONERS ON HUNGER STRIKE

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has deployed a monitoring mission to Kaliti Correctional Facility and Kilinto Prison to monitor the situation of defendants in Jawar Mohammed et al case, who have remained on hunger strike since January 27, 2021, and other prisoners. The Commission’s team visited the said prisons on February 2, 2021 to investigate the current situation of the prisoners on hunger strike and the treatment of Colonel Gemechu Ayana and Tilahun Yemi. EHRC’s monitoring team also talked with the prison administration of both facilities and the prisoners.

During the Commission’s visit to Kaliti Correctional Facility on February 2, 2021, Jawar Mohammed, Bekele Gerba, Hamza Adane (Borena) and Shemsedin Taha had been on hunger strike since January 27, 2021. The prisoners informed EHRC that the purpose thereof is to “protest the government’s suppression and violation of rights of people and their party; to ask for a stop to the harassment and ill treatment of Colonel Gemechu Ayana and to demand that the mistreatment and imprisonment of the visitors and relatives who attend their hearings and visit them in prison.”

The Kaliti Correctional Facility administration on its part told EHRC that “most of the demands listed as reasons for the hunger strike are beyond the remit of the administration.” Adding that the administration does not mistreat the prisoners’ visitors, it explained that two of the prisoners on hunger strike are receiving close medical supervision because they have a prior health condition which requires regular medication. The Commission’s team was able to confirm the provision of said medical monitoring.

EHRC has also visited Colonel Gemechu Ayana and Tilahun Yemi, the safety and security of both of whom was said to be in danger in relation with a video footage filmed from inside prison and circulated on social media. Both of the prisoners are in good health and have suffered no bodily injury. However, Colonel Gemechu Ayana expressed his dismay to the Commission with regards to the harassment he has suffered by being transferred to various holding areas (zones) several times. He also said that he was moved from the holding area (zone) he was in before “to another one that puts his safety at risk”.

The prison administration says that prisoners are regularly moved from one holding area (zone) to another and that there are other prisoners in the same area (zone) as Colonel Gemechu. During the visit, the Commission found one prisoner who had indicated being moved to the area (zone) for breaking prison rules.
Kaliti Prison Administration was preparing to move Colonel Gemechu Ayana to another holding area following EHRC’s recommendations in this regard, when the Federal High Court at a hearing on February 3, 2021, ordered for the prisoner to be returned to Kilinto noting that the prisoner’s transfer to Kaliti did not follow due process. The Commission has confirmed the transfer by visiting the prisoner on February 4, 2021.

EHRC has also investigated the treatment of Tilahun Yemi, detained on suspicion of assassinating musician Hachalu Hundessa. The prisoner is in good health and has told the Commission that he has not been beaten or otherwise suffered any rights violations in Kilinto. However, he told the Commission that he was mistreated during his detention in a police station.

With regards to the prisoners in Kaliti Correctional Facility who are on a hunger strike, EHRC Chief Commissioner Daniel Bekele said that “very close supervision is required to prevent any grave threat to their health and life and that reasonably justified demands of the prisoners must be addressed.” He added that “during visits to prisons or attending court hearings visitors must be treated properly.”

Statement by the Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide on the situation in Ethiopia, February 2021

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OFFICIAL STATEMENT | The United Nations Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, Ms. Alice Wairimu Nderitu, is alarmed by the continued escalation of ethnic violence in Ethiopia and allegations of serious violations of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights in the Tigray region.

The Special Adviser has received reports of serious human rights violations and abuses, committed by the parties to the conflict in the Tigray region and their allies. These include extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, looting of property, mass executions and impeded humanitarian access. Ms. Nderitu reiterated the call by the Secretary-General for continued urgent steps to alleviate the humanitarian situation and extend the necessary protection to those at risk. The Special Adviser further urged the Government of Ethiopia to restore the rule of law and public order in the region and called for an independent and impartial investigation into the allegations of serious violations and abuses of human rights committed.

The Special Adviser has also received disturbing reports of attacks against civilians based on their religion and ethnicity as well as serious allegations of human rights violations and abuses including arbitrary arrests, killings, rape, displacement of populations and destruction of property in various parts of the country. These are in addition to reported acts of hate speech and stigmatization including, ethnic profiling against some ethnic communities, notably, the Tigray, Amhara, Somali, and Oromo.

“The deep-seated divisions have reportedly led to imposition of travel restrictions on citizens based on their ethnicity, while ethnically motivated hate speech continues to spread on social media with calls for the exclusion of those perceived not to be original inhabitants of certain ethnic regions,” the Special Adviser stated.

A failure to address ethnic violence, stigmatization, hate speech, religious tensions compounded with other risk factors, including a culture of impunity and lack of accountability for serious violations committed, perpetuates an environment that exposes the civilian population to a high risk of atrocity crimes, the Special Adviser concluded.

Ms. Nderitu called on the Ethiopian authorities to establish national mechanisms to address the root causes of ethnic violence, build national cohesion and promote reconciliation. The Office of the Special Adviser as a focal point for the UN Strategy on Hate Speech stands ready when requested, to support Ethiopia to put in place mechanisms to address and counter hate speech, which is one of the key indicators for the risk of atrocity crimes.

The Special Adviser concluded that if urgent measures are not immediately taken to address the ongoing challenges facing the country, the risk of atrocity crimes in Ethiopia remains high and likely to get worse.

SOURCE: Office of the UN Special Advisers on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect

In Ethiopia’s digital battle over the Tigray region, facts are casualties

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The Washingtonpost | Alexi Drew and Claire Wilmot | Claims about disinformation may be undermining online activism.

Nearly three months have passed since the conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) began. Despite Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s assurance that the military operation ended in late November, the conflict in Tigray is far from over. U.N. officials this week cited reports that Ethiopian troops may not have the region under their command, and warned of grave food shortages, calling for the government to allow aid workers to enter the region.

On social media, pro- and anti-government groups continue to vie for control of the conflict narrative. Abiy released a statement on Feb. 2 encouraging Ethiopians to launch an offensive against the TPLF’s distortions and “lies” in the international arena. Our analysis of over 500,000 tweets related to Tigray helps explain the intensifying information conflict.

We collected and analyzed tweets between Nov. 4 and Jan. 20 to try to understand the kinds of information being circulated, and the effects of different messaging campaigns. We found that both sides are quick to accuse the other of spreading intentionally false information — though actual disinformation accounts for a surprisingly small proportion of tweets about the conflict.

Ethiopia’s conflict continues online

Knowing what’s really going on in Tigray’s conflict is difficult, given a communications blackout in much of the region. The government has also not allowed humanitarian access to areas that reportedly have experienced atrocities or are in urgent need of assistance. It is in this opaque information environment that people have taken to Twitter.

Pro-Tigray activism online

#StandWithTigray is a central source of activism for pro-Tigray campaigns. Its website shares instructions for using Twitter, along with pre-written content for followers to share. Their online presence can broadly be divided into three categories: “old” and “new” activist accounts; and accounts with opaque credentials.

“Old” activist accounts are largely based in Ethiopia, Europe and North America. Although their activism does not necessarily predate the conflict, their Twitter accounts often do. They demonstrate a high degree of digital literacy, posting lots of original content and engaging with other users.

“New” activist accounts were created throughout the conflict. We found over 3,000 such accounts between November and the end of January. These accounts demonstrate a low level of digital literacy, few followers and short-term engagement.

Accounts with opaque credentials claim expertise or positions aimed at boosting their credibility. They claim to be academics or aid workers but have little or no online presence beyond Twitter, making their credentials difficult to verify. These accounts may be problematic because they can obtain significant “reach” based on unsubstantiated claims.

Do these tweets contain disinformation and misinformation?

Our analysis showed that the majority of content produced by the #StandWithTigray campaign is digital activism, which seeks to raise international awareness about the conflict. The #StandwithTigray campaign is organized similarly to many other social justice campaigns on social media. Pre-written tweets build momentum around hashtags and connect to potential influencers like foreign officials, U.N. agencies or foreign ministries. This is a standard approach for activists, who usually don’t have the resources to employ the kinds of PR firms that many governments rely on to manage information (and disinformation) strategies.

It’s important to distinguish between disinformation, which is the intentional spread of false or misleading information, and misinformation, which is unintentional. When false claims could be read as intentional — like when TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael reported that Ethiopian forces had bombed the Tekeze dam — it’s often tough to verify information because of communications blackouts or limited physical access. Most who go on to spread that information have no means of verifying what they are sharing. Combating the spread of false information would require opening access to all areas of Tigray.

Pro-government information campaigns

The government has the advantage of being able to channel strategic messages through high-profile or official government accounts with very large followings. This means they are able to spread information widely without relying heavily on new accounts or copy-and-paste campaigns.

Pro-government online activism tends to be more responsive than proactive. The #UnityForEthiopia website, which appeared in response to #StandWithTigray, similarly includes instructions for creating Twitter accounts and has a repository of pre-written tweets. We found that new accounts created between November and January were responsible for 30 percent of all #UnityForEthiopia tweets during the two most active days of the campaign — Jan. 1 and Jan. 6.

A blurry information environment

By blocking communications and access to Tigray, the government helped create conditions where disinformation and misinformation can thrive. At the start of the military incursion into Tigray, pro-government accounts and government officials warned of a “Digital Woyane,” a TPLF-funded effort to undermine government actions in the region. In December, Ethiopia’s Information Network Security Agency claimed that the TPLF was producing over 20,000 tweets containing disinformation daily — a finding that is not supported by our data set. This narrative gained significant traction, with pro-government activists labeling almost all tweets about potential government wrongdoing as TPLF-funded disinformation.

The government’s State of Emergency Fact Check account, for example, responded to examples of misinformation spread by pro-Tigray accounts by issuing corrective statements, co-opting the work of independent fact-checkers. The government’s strategy seems to be to aimed at undermining the credibility of its critics, while sometimes combating pro-Tigray campaigns with their own campaigns.

What’s really happening in Tigray?

People come to digital activism with a wide range of interests and objectives — many want to raise awareness and advocate for solutions, while others may be trying to mislead or pursue political agendas. It’s clear that both sides in the Tigray conflict are using social media to sway global public opinion about the situation in the region, but very little independent information is emerging from Tigray at present. Currently, pro-Tigray campaigners have started spreading the hashtag #AllowAccessToTigray.

Our data so far does not support government claims that pro-Tigray Twitter campaigns are spreading significant amounts of disinformation, at least not on Twitter, the focus of our study. Pro-Tigray campaigns do produce higher volumes of tweets, which helps compete with the legitimacy and reach of government accounts. Government accounts, with their higher reach, can reframe tweets containing misinformation as intentional disinformation, undermining pro-Tigray campaigns.

Like everyone else, the government has the right to contest inaccurate claims, and may have reason to fear the spread of false information in this conflict. However, curtailing access to Tigray means that reliable evidence is scarce.

Increasingly troubling reports of humanitarian emergencies and international law violations are emerging from Tigray. As both sides seek to amplify their narratives, the importance of access and independent verification increases.

Dr. Alexi Drew is a research associate at the Policy Institute at Kings College London, an associate fellow at the Global Network on Extremism and Technology (GNET), and an executive manager at the European Cyber Conflict Research Initiative. Follow her on Twitter @CyberAlexi.

Claire Wilmot is a PhD candidate at the London School of Economics and a research officer at the UK Research and Innovation’s GCRF Gender, Justice and Security Hub. Follow her on Twitter @claireLwilmot.