Who Will Call Out Eritrea’s War Crimes in Tigray?

By Alex de Waal | World Peace Foundation 

Eritrea has deployed most of its army in Tigray region of Ethiopia. This is no secret. At minimum, 12 divisions have been fighting inside Tigray.

At first, the United States gave Eritrea a free pass, expressing “thanks to Eritrea for not being provoked” into retaliating after a TPLF rocket attack on Asmara. Later it admitted that Eritrea was a belligerent. The United Nations Secretary General repeated Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed’s assertion that Eritrean troops had not crossed the border. The Chairperson of the African Union has carefully said nothing on the issue.

It is lawful for a state to request the military assistance of another state. The involvement of Eritrea in Ethiopia isn’t illegal per se.

But there is mounting evidence that activities of Eritrean troops include perpetrating war crimes on a vast scale. Every report from the northern parts of Tigray speaks about Eritrean soldiers looting. They ransacked the town of Shire. They shelled Humera close to the Sudanese border. They systematically dismantled the university and pharmaceutical factory in Adigrat. They stole cars, generators, and high value goods. Now we hear that they are combing ordinary houses in towns and villages, taking such basic items as furniture, doors, and jerrycans. Eritreans are said to have emptied food stores and looted cattle, sheep and goats.

Catholic priests in Eritrea were horrified by the looted items coming into Eritrea from Tigray and admonished anyone buying them. Despite the information blackout, journalists have pieced together enough information on these actions.

International criminal law prohibits a belligerent from removing, destroying or rendering useless objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population. The fast-approaching humanitarian crisis with at least 2 million displaced is due not only to fighting but to starvation crimes such as these.

Eritrean troops overran and emptied four refugee camps where Eritreans who had escaped their country had been living, until last month under the protection of the Ethiopian government. That’s another violation of international law.

As the weeks pass, it is becoming ever clearer that President Isseyas Afewerki has long planned this war with the intention of annihilating the TPLF and reducing Tigray to a condition of complete incapacity. His strategy is to say nothing and make a fait accompli on the assumption that the world will, in due course, come to live with it.

If anyone should doubt Isseyas’s intent, they should reflect on the way in which he has dealt with domestic opposition. In September 2001, while international attention was consumed by the al-Qaeda attacks on New York and Washington DC, he arrested eleven high-ranking colleagues, heroes of the liberation war, who had called for democratization, and ten journalists. They have never been seen since. After PM Abiy Ahmed visited Asmara in 2018 to end the long-dormant peace process between the two countries, Eritrea did not liberalize or demobilize its army. Nothing was said about political prisoners. Eritreans complained that nothing changed for them. For Pres. Isseyas, it wasn’t peace—it was a new opportunity to consolidate despotism.

Who will call out Eritrea’s role in the destruction of Tigray?

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 34 – 23 December

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 23 December)

– Social media sources indicate heavy fighting on three fronts on Tuesday. Tigray sources report an ENDF brigade was destroyed in Hugumburda on the way to Mayichaw town, a division destroyed in BietMara, Alaje, one battalion destroyed in Maykintal (Central front), and two brigades on Zana, Shire fronts.

– Further Tigray reports indicate an Ethiopian fighter jet was downed at Abiy Addi.

– Advisor to the elected government of Tigray, Getachew Reda, states that fighting continues on many fronts: “enemy forces are being routed in Zana, had already lost hundreds of soldiers in Adet and Tsimbla.” He claims that Eritrean and Ethiopian forces have lost an air force gunship in BietMara.

– Getachew Reda accuses the Ethiopian Government of carrying out a “genocidal campaign” in Tigray.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 23 December)

– The United States Africa Command reports that the USS Makin Island ship has arrived in Somalia to relocate US “forces in Somalia to other East Africa operating locations while maintaining pressure on violent extremists and supporting partner forces”.

– Refugees International reports that Eritrean refugees are being rounded up in Addis Ababa and returned to Tigray after having fled from Tigray, and are also being deported back from Tigray to Eritrea, from where they originally fled. This confirms reports by journalist Stijn Vercruysse (VRT) who interviewed Eritrean refugees in the refugee camps in Shire reporting forced deportations.

– VRT journalist shows images of Eritrean soldiers in Tigray. It would appear from the now available evidence that Eritrean soldiers crossed the border in Ethiopian uniforms, and participated in fighting, and are looting in Tigray.

International dimension (as confirmed per 23 December)

– Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) Commissioner Bachelet urges independent investigation of human rights abuses, stating “the need for independent human rights monitors to be given access to Tigray to adequately assess the human suffering resulting from the conflict, verify allegations and to help ensure accountability for violations”.

– OHCHR Bachelet urges Ethiopian authorities to provide unhindered access to the Tigray region. Two humanitarian assessment missions have entered Tigray on Monday (21 Dec.)

– OHCHR spokesperson Liz Throssell office states that OHCHR has held talks with the Ethiopian government and plans to prepare a team to verify reported rights abuses as soon as possible

– UK House of Lords member David Alton sends a report to UK Government Ministers which warns of serious human rights violations in the conflict in Tigray and increasing internationalisation of the conflict.

– Social media messages state that Eritrea would have ordered Egyptian ambassador to leave Asmara.

– Norwegian Professor Kjetil Tronvoll states in an open letter to Ethiopian authorities that he has experienced “repeated and grievous ad hominem attacks from an Ethiopian government spokesperson and internet trolls associated with the regime”.

– Norwegian Refugee Council appeals again for unhindered access to Tigray for their aid workers and relief trucks, which are on standby.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 23 December)

– Journalist Stijn Vercruysse, VRT reporter currently in Tigray, reports serious injuries caused by bombs; stating that there is an acute lack of assistance, doctors and medical supplies in Shire, Tigray. According to the VRT, the situation is a humanitarian disaster in the making.

– The VRT has also seen evidence of tanks filled with loot in Shire.

– VRT further shows footage of many deserted ghost towns in the Shire area.

– Accounts on social media allege heavy damage and looting in Adigrat, Tigray, including factories; source reports the university campuses were occupied by Eritrean soldiers and everything has been taken.

– A new provisional administrative department “Setit Humera zone” has been created and will include all the areas west of the Tekeze river in Tigray. This includes almost all the lowlands where many
Tigrayans live. This new administrative department will be administered as part of the Amhara region.

– Many villages in the Western Tigray region are completely deserted. The majority of the houses have been looted. The inhabitants have fled the area. A witness reports that security administrators in the region are encouraging Amhara to settle in the empty houses and bring their families.

– Amhara militiamen are reportedly recruiting 20,000 more men. They want to use this manpower to face Sudan and police the new administrative area, the “Setit Humera zone”. The Amhara special
forces are currently fighting the Sudanese army at the border over control over fertile land.

– People continue to be killed in the streets by militiamen and soldiers. A video of an unknown date shows panicked people on the streets of Mekelle running from gunshots.

– In Humera, a large number of residents have fled and signs in Tigrinya have been covered. Shops and houses are closed. In Dansha, bars and hotels were renamed and reopened after their owners fled.

– Shops in Mekelle remain closed.

Situation refugees (as confirmed per 23 December)

– Journalist Stijn Vercruysse (VRT) warns of a lack of food, water, and medicines for the Eritrean refugees and other displaced people.

– Refugees in Adi Harush refugee camp state that attackers came to confiscate around 180 cellphones. The refugees feel unsafe, continue to hear heavy weaponry, and are not allowed to leave the camp.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=26623&LangID=E

https://www.awashpost.com/2020/12/22/a-changing-ethiopia-divisions-fear-and-unfounded-accusations/

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/12/20/vrtnws-als-eerste-in-oosten-van-tigray-in-ethiopie-het-geweld/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkvOfC9q-n8&feature=youtu.be

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 33 – 22 December

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 22 December)

– Mahad Salad, a Somali opposition lawmaker, is asking whether the Somali govt forces that were deployed yesterday in Dolow district at the Somalia-Kenya border, are Somali or Eritrean troops. It was reported that the arriving troops include troops trained by Eritrea months ago, sent from Asmara.

– An unconfirmed twitter post claimed that the Somali military fired rockets with the assumed aim to prevent a Kenyan military aircraft from carrying out an air strike.

– A delegation from South Africa, led by the National Organizer of the South Africa Communist Party-SACP Mhelekwa Nxumalo, organised in the Somaliland Action Group in Johannesburg, visited Somaliland. They were received by President Bihi. The group advocates for recognition of Somaliland.

– A strict lockdown is in place in Eritrea from 22-12. The use of private cars is not allowed but trucks are exempted. People are banned from moving between villages. No end date for the measures has been provided.

– A witness told the Guardian that “Eritreans were really leading the Ethiopian forces in the area”. They played a major role in the ENDF ‘law and order’ operation in Tigray.

– Eritrean soldiers armed Eritrean refugees in Tigrayan camps, “before looting property, slaughtering livestock and burning crops” of local populations living near the camps.

– The Ethiopian PM, Abiy Ahmed, has said that the recent skirmishes along the border with Sudan will not break the historic ties that exist between both countries.

International dimension (as confirmed per 22 December)

– Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission commented on the tough challenges in Ethiopia: “It cannot be denied (..) that the crisis in Tigray regional state has provoked large-scale displacement” The AU encourages IGAD: “to support Ethiopia in addressing the humanitarian dimensions.” Faki called for attention to refugees and displaced people.

– AU Commission Chair Faki emphasized that it “is necessary to recall the important role that Ethiopia plays in peacekeeping operations in the region, and I hope that these efforts will continue.”

– On Saturday 19 Dec, Ethiopians and Germans demonstrated in Frankfurt for peace in Ethiopia without hatred and ethnic differences. Development aid from Germany to Ethiopia was, in 2019, €352.5m.

– The Ethiopian Federal Police Commission stated that it would work in partnership with Interpol to apprehend accomplices of the TPLF “for whom warrants were issued and reside abroad.”

– Federal Police Crime Prevention Sector Head, Deputy Commissioner General Melaku Fanta has told the media in Mekelle that arrest warrants have been issued against anyone that is collaborating with the TPLF.

Situation refugees (as confirmed per 22 December)

– William Carter (Norwegian Refugee Council) tweeted him singing a Christmas song from one of the new refugee camps in Sudan. He dedicated it to all the separated families.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 22 December)

– According to a witness on the ground ENDF soldiers killed ‘many’ in Hagere Selam in Tigray. They are thought to have come to the town to take revenge after they lost a battle against Tigrayan forces.

– In subsequent days the town Hagere Selam was ‘entirely’ looted by Eritrean soldiers fighting on the side of the ENDF. They were going door to door, forcing their way in and taking what they could, especially electronics, TVs, audio installations and mobile phones.

– In Hagere Selam there is no water and no electricity. Little food is available and the hospital is in a dire situation as medical supplies are running critically low. It cannot refer patients to the main Ayder referral hospital in Mekelle.

– Witnesses from the ground state that the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies moved along the roads, from town to town. This is where the people are at a direct risk of being killed or looted. Witnesses from Tigray report that Eritrean soldiers are now in Abiy Addi and in Mekelle.

– According to an analyst the harvest in Tigray is worst hit (1) in South Tigray because of heavy damage by locusts; (2) in Western Tigray where Amhara and Eritrean soldiers are all over the place, and people fear harvesting crops; (3) in places along the roads.

– Suspended activities of humanitarian organisations in Tigray include sixteen humanitarian INGOs with 596 staff (international and national) and other national non-governmental organisations.

– Pictures on social media show 21 destroyed tanks, armoured cars, and BM-21 rocket launchers taken on the road from Maykeyih to Hewanii. According to the source, these vehicles were destroyed by the Tigray Defence Forces. The drivers reportedly returned from Mekoni to Mekelle due to fears of continuing fighting on the Southern front.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 22 December)

– The International Rescue Committee is warning that the war in Tigray is making the fight against the locust invasion more difficult and that millions of Ethiopians are in need of food assistance.

– The Oromo Liberation Front is urging the international community to ensure that the Ethiopian government releases political prisoners ahead of the elections planned in 2021.

– The Ethiopia Development Partners Group (DPG) Executive Committee members received a brief by the Minister of Finance, Ahmed Shide, and Minister of Peace, Muferiat Kamil, on the measures to ensure “peace and the return to normalcy after the end of the law enforcement operation in Tigray”.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://twitter.com/BashirHashiysf/status/1340926633700515840?s=19
https://www.somalilandsun.com/south-african-based-somaliland-action-group-meets-president-commits-to-support-quest-for-recognition/
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-12/21/c_139607588.htm
https://addisstandard.com/news-olf-accuses-govt-of-fresh-crackdown-on-its-members-oromia-region-says-measures-taken-on-several-dozen-rebel-members-thousands-arrested-across-region/
https://amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/dec/21/slaughtered-like-chickens-eritrea-heavily-involved-in-tigray-conflict-say-eyewitnesses

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 32 – 21 December

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Regional dimension (as confirmed per 21 December)

– The 38th IGAD extraordinary summit took place on Sunday 20 December in Djibouti. It was chaired by PM Hamdok of Sudan.

– During the IGAD meeting, Ethiopian PM Ahmed met with Sudanese PM Hamdok to discuss bilateral relations. According to PM Hamdok it was agreed that Sudan and Ethiopia will hold a meeting of the High Boundary Committee on 22 December (Tuesday) to delineate their shared border.

– According to diplomats present, the tensions at the summit were running high. They also dispute that PM Hamdok had a meeting with PM Ahmed.

– President Farmaajo and President Kenyatta had a bilateral meeting during the IGAD Summit. Somalia and Kenya have agreed to hold de-escalation talks. The AU put pressure on them to resolve the row.

– In a further development, Somalia has sent hundreds of Turkish-trained Gorgor unit troops to Dolow near the border with Kenya and Ethiopia. Kenya has also deployed more forces to the area.

– Turkey has recently been sending troops and equipment to Somalia. There are reports that Turkey may deploy drones to the area in support of the Somali army. Turkey opened its biggest overseas base in Mogadishu in 2017 and sees Somalia as a major partner in the region.

– The Sudanese Tribune and DW have reported that the Sudanese military has regained control of Jabal Abu Tayyur, in the disputed land on the Ethiopian-Sudan border. According to reliable sources, the military is advancing further. Heavy fighting against Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Amharic militia is taking place in Metena near the Ethiopian-Sudanese border. The Sudanese military reportedly attacked an Ethiopian army base. The army Chief of Staff al-Barun personally oversaw the operation.

– The Ethiopian government and media are said not to be reporting the military clashes with Sudan.

– The first journalist visiting the Western Shire region of Tigray, VRT journalist Stijn Vercruysse, reports footage of deserted homesteads. He states that the estimation that 1 million Tigrayan people have been displaced in Tigray might be an understatement. Vercruysse confirms the presence of Eritrean soldiers and confirms the abduction of Eritrean refugees in Tigray by Eritrean forces back to Eritrea. He found the Shimelba refugee camp almost deserted.

– The Somali Foreign Minister was in Brussels today to meet EU officials. Somalia is increasing its pressure to remove Kenya from AMISOM, the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia. It has dispatched officials to other AMISOM member countries. Under the AMISOM agreement, Somalia can not do this unilaterally.

– Footage on social media of an ENDF general who escaped to Eritrea when the conflict with Tigray started on 4 November. He states that Eritrea welcomed Ethiopian military, providing full support.

International dimension (as confirmed per 21 December)

– EU High Representative, Josep Borell, released a statement on the IGAD Summit: “The European Union joins the millions across the region affected by the current crises, in placing their faith in today’s summit. We support all efforts to encourage dialogue and to silence guns. As IGAD’s most significant international partner, we also hope that the outcome of today’s meeting will bring the region a step closer to finding a sustainable solution to the ongoing crises, in line with respect for international commitments and, in particular, international humanitarian law.”

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 21 December)

– BBC published testimonies of witnesses from Mekelle reporting that artillery shelling took place before November 28th. The shelling destroyed houses in residential areas and killed civilians. In one case a whole family was killed, leaving only a little boy alive. A doctor says that he personally saw 22 bodies. It was hard to take proper care of those wounded by the artillery due to a critical shortage of medical supplies.

– Flights from Addis Ababa to Mekelle were cancelled on Sunday.

– There are reports of looting of ritual books and other artifacts from remote monasteries in Tigray. These are being transported to Eritrea.

– According to an analyst, the entire leadership of the TPLF is intact. Over 70 of them have retreated to the mountains. Only two have been arrested.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 21 December)

– Three people were killed by an explosion in Addis Ababa, caused according to the Addis Abeba policy by an abandoned bomb. It took place near the city center and three people were killed. There have been several explosions in the capital since the offensive in Tigray started. Police have blamed the TPLF for some of these explosions, although evidence has not been presented. The TPLF has not claimed responsibility for any of these.

– Social media reports that children of current and former TPLF leaders are detained in Mekelle. The daughter of former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Semehal Meles, and the youngest son of former Major General Hayelom, Berhanemeskel Hayelom, are mentioned to be among them.

– Ten Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) leaders, cadre and journalists have been arrested. These are: Mohamed Ragasa, OLF Central Committee Member and Spokesperson of the OLF; Murataa Sabaa, OLF Central Committee Member; Ayyaantuu Bulchaa, Journalist (SBO); Ibsaa Gaaddisaa, Journalist (SBO); Dr Gadaa Oljirraa – Office Administrator of OLF Chairman; Yeroosan Hayyuu Organisational Affairs- Finfinnee area); Tumsaa (Asaffaa Fikadu) – Member of Organisational Affairs; Gurmuu Ayyanaa – OLF cadre; Geessisaa Kuusaa – Organisational Affairs- Mandii area; and Lidia Ali Miseensa – Women Association member. It is not known where they are being detained.

– Fighting between Amhara and Afar militias is taking place in Wollo Province.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/10/397220/World/Africa/SudanEthiopia-border-demarcation-talks-set-for-Tue.aspx
https://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article70244
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55325603
https://twitter.com/WainnieT/status/1340717204984242178?s=19
https://www.facebook.com/296815557366800/posts/1350049242043421/?sfnsn=mo
https://twitter.com/vercrus

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 31 – 20 December

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Regional dimension (as confirmed per 20 December

– IGAD to meet Sunday 20 Dec in Addis Ababa, chaired by Sudan PM Hamdok. Today a meeting was held in Djibouti between Djibouti PM Kamil Mohamed, Somalia Pres Farmaajo and VP Mabior of South Sudan.

Military situation (as confirmed per 20 December)

– Tension between Ethiopia and Sudan is increasing. Sudan has sent more troops, including Rapid Support Forces, and equipment to the border area. Support from the Bani Amer and al-Habb tribes in the states of Kassala and Gedaref, including food supplies and finances. Talks with Ethiopia have stopped.

– A report based on testimonials of three Egyptian officials and one European diplomat indicates that the UAE used its base in Assab (Eritrea) to launch drones strikes against Tigray. The investigative platform Bellingcat confirmed the presence of Chinese-produced drones at the UAE’s military base in Assab, Eritrea.

– Egyptian officials are reportedly concerned about strengthening ties between the UAE and Israel. They fear that both countries will collaborate in the construction of an alternative to the Suez canal starting from Haifa in Israel.

– Egypt is reportedly encouraging Sudan to support the TPLF in Tigray. It wants to strengthen a joint position in relation to negotiations on the GERD Dam, which impacts both countries downstream.

– Sudan has reportedly captured Eritrean soldiers dressed in Amhara militia uniforms fighting along the Sudan border alongside Amhara special forces.

– A foreign diplomat has stated that “thousands” of Eritrean soldiers are engaged in Tigray. Two diplomats stated that Eritrean troops entered Ethiopia through three northern border towns: Zalambessa, Rama and Badme.

– Killings occurred in Edaga Hamus, a small town in Tigray. Eritrean soldiers reportedly killed approximately 150 civilians, including a priest and women seeking refuge in a church, located 4 km to the west of Marieam Dengelat. The town and some rural villages (Maimegelta, Dengelat, Tsa’a and Hangoda) are under the
control of Eritrean forces. The military is slaughtering the animals. People are starving to death.

– Eritrean soldiers were in Mekelle (Tigray), according to a resident and two diplomats receiving information from the ground. They state that some soldiers were wearing Eritrean uniforms, whilst others wore Ethiopian uniforms but “spoke Tigrinya with an Eritrean accent and drove trucks without license plates.”

– There are multiple reports that the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) are looting property from the Sur Company and transporting the loot to Addis Ababa.

– A deacon and 15 civilians were killed by Eritrean and ENDF soldiers in Adigrat while trying to protect the Addis Pharmaceutical Factory from looting.

International dimension (as confirmed per 20 December)

– US Senators Booker (D-NJ) and Young (R-IN) released a joint statement on the conflict in Ethiopia: “The conflict in Ethiopia remains far from over, despite Prime Minister Abiy’s claim that military operations are complete. We are deeply concerned by reports of Eritrean refugees in Tigray being killed, abducted and forcibly returned to Eritrea by Eritrean forces, as well as disturbing reports that some trying to reach safer areas are being prevented from leaving.” They also noted that “the internationalisation of the conflict is a threat to US interests” and called on Ethiopia to abide by its commitments.

– Cameron Hudson, a former director for African affairs at the US National Security Council, stated that there is division in the U.S. government on speaking publicly about Eritrea’s involvement in Tigray, due to strategic and tactical considerations.

– An analyst believes that Eritrean President Isaias is weak and when the TPLF is removed, Eritrean generals will remove Isaias, leading to “integration” of Eritrean and Ethiopia, giving Ethiopia access to a seaport.

– The EU has stated that Tigray is on the edge of a humanitarian catastrophe which risks destabilizing the whole neighbourhood. The EU increased humanitarian funding for the area by €23.7 million on Saturday. EU humanitarian assistance will go to organisations in Ethiopia, Kenya and Sudan.

– UN deputy spokesperson for SG Antonio Guterres, has stated that many people in the region have not received any assistance, and that deliveries by some agencies have been limited. The UN continues to “call for immediate and unfettered access to all areas where people have been affected by the fighting.”

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 20 December)

– Police and TPLF absence has led to lawlessness in Mekelle. Youth especially targeted by ENDF soldiers.

– Electricity and phone lines intermittently working in Mekelle, but not in most areas in Tigray. The Internet is still down.

– Civil servants were ordered back to work by the provisional government in Tigray but few report to work.

– The UN reports that many Tigray people have no access to food, water, cash, power and telecommunications.

– Catholic Bishop Tesfaselassie Medhin of Adigrat has been reported safe in his residence.

– The Apostolic Nuncio to Ethiopia, Archbishop Antoine Camilleri, expressed “solidarity with Bishop Medhin who was missing in the assembly because of the situation in his diocese where the war is hard hit.”

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 20 December)

– Ethnic profiling of Tigray continues. A prominent Tigrayan activist and lawyer living in Addis Ababa, was detained on Saturday by Ethiopian police. A former TV Tigray employee and several priests of Tigrayan ethnic origins were also reportedly arrested. Another Tigrayan, an Ethiopian Airlines employee was arrested last week.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

 

Links of interest

https://www.booker.senate.gov/news/press/booker-young-joint-bipartisan-statement-regarding-the-conflict-in-ethiopia
https://africa.cgtn.com/2020/12/19/many-people-in-ethiopias-tigray-have-not-received-assistance-un-spokesman/
https://allafrica.com/stories/202012190027.html?utm_campaign=allafrica%3Aeditor
https://mada29.appspot.com/madamasr.com/en/2020/12/17/feature/politics/a-gulf-of-difference-how-the-uae-and-egypts-close-coordination-fell-apart-and-whats-next/?s=08
https://www.reuters.com/article/ethiopia-conflict-eritrea-idUSKBN28I1OX
http://communications.amecea.org/index.php/2020/12/18/ethiopia-need-for-churchs-intervention-amid-tigrays-conflict-prelates-in-ethiopia-at-50th-assembly/

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 30 – 19 December

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 19 December)

– Al Shabaab, Somalia’s al Qaeda-allied Islamist extremist group, claims responsibility for a suicide attack in Mogadishu, Somalia, at a rally to be attended by PM Mohamed Hussein Roble, killing at least ten people. The commander of the 21st Division of the SNA General Abdiaziz Abdullahi Qooje and the commander of Danab forces in Galmudug Col Mukhtar Abdi Aden.

– Eritrea has in the past trained Al Shabaab and provided military support to it.

– Kenya and Somaliland have agreed to establish direct Kenya Airways flights between Nairobi and Hargeisa in Somaliland. This move comes shortly after an agreement was reached for Kenya to open a consulate in Hargeisa. The closer relations has created concern in Mogadishu and led to the severance of diplomatic relations between Kenya and Somalia.

– Sudanese military would be advancing towards the disputed Ethiopia-Sudan border area. The Sudanese Commander-in-Chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, also visited the area on Thursday.

– Eritrean soldiers have been digging trenches on the border with Ethiopia according to multiple reports. Sudanese authorities have been warning people to be cautious in the border area.

– The Sudanese government has accused the Ethiopian government of using artillery against Sudanese troops conducting operations in the border area. Tensions have been rising between the two countries in recent weeks after Sudan reoccupied land that it said was occupied by Ethiopian farmers. The government of Ethiopia has so far not commented on the matter.

– Special forces of Afar and Amahara have reportedly, for the last three days, been fighting each in Tigray

– A fire was detected during the night of Dec. 15-16 within Hagere Selam town in South Eastern Tigray. This appears to corroborate reports of ongoing attacks in the area.

International dimension (as confirmed per 19 December)

– Both the UK government and the EU received questions by parliamentarians about their respective roles in Ethiopia. In its response the British government said that Eritrea categorically denied the presence of troops in Tigray. They also denied forcing Eritrean refugees back to Eritrea.

– Egypt has condemned the border attack by Ethiopia on Sudan. The government has said that it stands in full solidarity with Sudan and calls for all measures to ensure that such events do not reoccur. Both Sudan and Egypt are in the middle of a struggle with Ethiopia, which is building a major new dam on the Blue Nile. Egypt and Sudan fear this could have severe impact downriver. The three countries have been in negotiations, however a compromise has not been reached yet.

– The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) demands that journalist Dawit Kebebe be released immediately. He has been held since november 30th for disseminating false information and tarnishing the image of the government but has not been charged. CPJ also calls for other journalists to be released.

– The Anglican Communion has expressed regret at the death toll in Tigray. The Secretary General has written in a letter that he is deeply concerned about the current situation in Tigray.

Human Rights (as confirmed per 19 December)

– Reportedly 37 civilians were killed by Eritrean troops in Mariam Dengelat. This follows further reports of Ethiopian ENDF soldiers shooting at unarmed civilians. Recent days has also seen the emergence of names of civilians killed in Tigray emerging, this includes an entire family in Adigrat

– On social media claims of four named priests and three civilians killed by troops (reportedly ENDF and Eritrean allied troops) in Zalambessa.

Situation refugees (as confirmed per 19 December)

– Reports of Sudan authorities are instructing recently arrived Ethiopian/Tigrians refugees in Hamadyat camp to dismantle and go to the mainland of Sudan in fear of potential war between Ethiopia. This instruction was given to the refugees Friday.

– Satellite pictures have detected fires in Shimelba refugee camp in TIgray. The origin is unknown.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 19 December)

– Ethiopia is offering rewards of 10 million Ethiopian birr (roughly $250,000 / 205,000 euros) for information on the exact location of members of the TPLF leadership that leads to their capture. A hotline for information has been set up

– Looting continues to be reported, including 500 dairy cows and hundreds of calves stolen by Amharic forces.

– Communication with the region remains difficult. Many people are still unable to contact family and friends. News and events remain hard to confirm.

– Mekelle University announces graduation ceremony of students, pictures online are from previous years.

– Staff at Mekelle University are reporting back to work.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 19 December)

– Oromo protests aimed to inform the international community about the negative electoral environment for the upcoming election as much of the Oromo leaders are in prison.

– There is concern about the inability to contact an Ethiopian church bishop in Adigrat. No communication has been received since 23 November when he reported shortages of food and medicine.

– Huawei is looking to move its regional headquarters, currently in DRC, to Ethiopia. It has said that it aims to take advantage of the growth of the telecommunications sector.

 

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://graphics.reuters.com/ETHIOPIA-CONFLICT/xklpyjmndvg/
https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20201218-soudan-nouvelle-mont%C3%A9e-de-tension-dans-le-triangle-d-el-fashaga-%C3%A0-la-fronti%C3%A8re-%C3%A9thiopienne
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201218-ethiopia-offers-reward-for-help-finding-dissident-tigray-leaders
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20201218-somalia-suicide-bombing-misses-pm-but-kills-several-top-commanders

 

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 29 – 18 December

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Evolving situation (as confirmed per 18 December)

The Government of Sudan has accused Ethiopia of ambushing Sudanese troops on Wednesday. 4 soldiers died. Large military reinforcements deployed by Sudanese army along the border with Ethiopia after clashes in which Sudanese military were killed and wounded, reports Al Sharq newspaper.

Nine priests killed in the Church in Adi Aweshi, Tembien, Tigray, by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops.

Historic Al Nejashi Mosque (the first mosque in Africa ) was first bombed and later looted by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops. Tigrayan sources are saying that people have died trying to protect the mosque.

Reported that people have been killed in Oromo and Amhara region. The killings were carried out by seperatist groups. It fuels fears that the conflict will spread to wider Ethiopia as ethnic tensions rise.

Eritrean troops looted St. Mary, a Catholic church in Wukro, Tigray, and stole cars from the compound.

The TPLF reportedly used tanks after the beginning of military actions on November 4th. ENDF forces were besieged in some camps for 10 days, after which they surrendered.

Two doctors report heavy shelling at the start of the offensive. The shelling came from Eritrea, the border of which was 200 meters away. Following the shelling one doctor says that he counted 15 dead and 75 wounded. The second doctor says that they received 200 casualties of which 50 were dead on arrival. They mention a pattern of shelling, then arrival of government soldiers, followed by Amhara militias and special forces.

The doctors also reported that they had to evacuate the wounded on trucks as it became too dangerous to stay. Subsequently they had to hide for two days as shooting and killings were taking place nearby. They eventually fled to Sudan.

People have walked to Sudan covering distances of 300 km, reports BBC, and they saw many dead civilians on the way. A doctor states: “I have patients who say they saw Eritrean forces in Tigray who committed atrocities, burning houses and destroying farmland.”

Calls for investigation in the war crimes committed by all parties involved in the ground and air offensive which started on November 4th.

Increasing concern of ‘troll farm’ attacks to silence reporting on the situation.

International dimension (as confirmed per 18 December)

An official in Juba, South Sudan, states that the TPLF elected president, Debretsion Gebremichael, is seeking refuge there. It is understood that he has been in Juba for several weeks. When he arrived he asked the President of South Sudan to mediate. The official also said that Debretsion did not meet with President el-Sisi of Egypt while in South Sudan and did not ask to meet him.

Egypt has expressed full solidarity with Sudan after clashes on the Sudan – Ethiopian border, stating that “Khartoum has the right to defend its security and exercise sovereignty over its territories.”

Chairperson of the Horn of Africa Civil Society Forum, Albaqir Mukhtar, appeals to Sudan Prime Minister Hamdok, chair of the IGAD, “to use all efforts and all diplomatic avenues to bring all parties of this conflict to the negotiating table as has been done in South Sudan and Somalia.”

Ahead of the 20th December IGAD meeting the Horn of Africa Civil Society Forum urges Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed to accept IGAD as mediator in the regionalising conflict.

Julia Cassell, the former Minister of Gender from Liberia, urges African leaders to create the conditions for peace on the ground. Cassell is joined by nearly 120 women from 20 countries across the African continent: Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Benin, Niger, Ghana, Nigeria, DR Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Cameroon, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and South Africa.

In the US, Black Lives Matter stands in solidarity with “all disenfranchised and displaced people in the Horn of Africa who are affected by violent conflict in Ethiopia.”

Situation refugees (as confirmed per 18 December)

More than half of the over 65,000 refugees that arrived in Sudan are children and many have been separated from family members.

The ICRC has released statistics on medical and first aid assistance provided in Tigray. These include over 2000 wounded, of which 550 were critical.

UNHCR and partners working in four Tigray refugee camps with nearly 100,000 refugees continue to experience “challenges to access the camps and sustain the operational capacity on the ground.”

Refugees in the four camps in Tigray urge aid to be provided to the other two camps Shimelba and Hitsats and they warn that camps are not yet safe.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 18 December)

UN mission in Afar finds that “thousands of newly internally displaced people need water, sanitation and hygiene services, as well as medical supplies and care”.

There continue to be reports of Eritrean soldiers looting in Tigray. Computers and other equipment was allegedly taken from a school operated by a Catholic mission.

The United Nations has announced USD 36 million in emergency aid for civilians in Tigray. The majority will go to the purchase of medicine and food and civilian protection.

Mekelle University announces a graduation ceremony. The online announcement is not matching the reality on the ground as many students have left and students and professors are still out of reach.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 18 December)

Desert locusts threaten food security in Ethiopia and the wider region.

 

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-conflict-attack-idUSKBN28R1IE 
https://addisstandard.com/news-as-killings-of-civilians-continue-in-metekel-authorities-in-benishagul-gumuz-amhara-regional-states-step-up-blames 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55236354
https://www.unocha.org/story/daily-noon-briefing-highlights-ethiopia-4
https://www.sudanspost.com/ethiopias-debretsion-seeking-refuge-in-juba-official-confirms
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/397091/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-expresses-its-condolences-to-Sudan-over-vict.aspx
https://www.abnewswire.com/pressreleases/african-women-appeal-for-a-horn-of-africa-peace-initiative_523311.html

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 28 – 17 December

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Iternational dimension (as confirmed per 17 December)

– The European Union asks: (1) full humanitarian access, (2) allowing refugees to seek refuge in neighbouring countries, (3) end discrimination and ethnic prosecution, (4) the establishment of a mechanism for independent investigation of human rights violations, (5) and the restablishment of communication and media channels to Tigray.

Regional dimension (as confirmed per 17 December)

– The Somali Prime Minister is set to formally demand the removal of Kenyan troops from AMISOM. Reportedly he wants these replaced with Eritrean troops. Previously Ethiopian Tigray troops were taken off AMISOM. Eritrea has been accused in the past of training and supporting Al Shabaab. Observers warn the impact this re-arrangement may have on counter-terrorism policies.

– Somalia may stop issuing visas to Kenyan troops in AMISOM by the end of the month.

– In clashes at the Sudan-Ethiopia border, four Sudanese soldiers have been killed and twelve more wounded. The clash took place on territory claimed by Ethiopian farmers.

– PM Hamdok of Sudan deplores loss of military who “were ambushed by some Ethiopian forces and militias inside Sudanese territory”.

– Discussion on border issues between both countries was on the agenda of the Summit between Ethiopian PM Abiy and Sudan PM Hamdok last Sunday. Discussions on the border disputes are due to start next week in Khartoum according to the Sudan Tribune.

– Firefights are reported in Mogadishu as anti-government demonstrations are taking place. Local militias and security forces have been clashing.

Human Rights (as confirmed per 17 December)

– A Catholic bishop and several nuns and other missionary members, based in Adigrat, are missing.

– AFP reports that the Federal Ethiopian army separated men and women and executed a group of men
in the village of Bisober in Southern Tigray on November 14th.

– Witnesses tell about executions of civilians in the Wukro area during November 25th -29th.

Situation refugees (as confirmed per 17 December)

– Eritrean refugees who fled from Tigray refugee camps to Addis Ababa and were forced to return to Tigray have been taken to two camps (Mai Aini and Adi Harush), even if they lived in Shimelba and Hitsats camps before.

– There is a severe shortage of food and water in Mai Aini.

– Eritrean refugees are suffering from hunger and lack of medical assistance in Tigray refugee camps. Women are reportedly giving birth without medical assistance.

– Many families have been separated. Calls for an urgent family tracing program to support reunification and information regarding missing persons.

Reported situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 17 December)

– In Tembien, Adi Qeweylo, Tigray, nine priests were killed by Federal Ethiopian and Eritrean troops.

– Reports of looting continue to come in. Eritrean soldiers are said to continue plundering valuable equipment from factories and universities. Videos have come out of what the descriptions claim are Eritrean trucks in Shire Endasilasie carrying loot back to Eritrea.

– Social media reports state that Eritrean soldiers may be engaged in “massive looting” of cultural artifacts. This could include raids on remote monasteries which keep ancient manuscripts. Ancient Christian religious manuscripts and texts may be in danger. Calls on UNESCO to investigate.

– Report that Al-Njesahi Mosque of Negash (Tigray) is looted; the oldest Muslim settlement in Africa.

– The UN has confirmed that 18 trucks have reached Eritrean refugee camps in Tigray.

– The UN states it does not have unhindered and full access to the region.

– More supplies, organised by the ICRC, have arrived in Mekelle.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 17 December)

– A number of Tigrayans who have spoken with the New Humanitarian have said that they have encountered growing ethnic profiling and discrimination. They are experiencing harassment on the streets, but have also been targeted by government investigations. The government has been acting against TPLF members, but non-members say that they have been targeted as well.

– The Ethiopian deputy PM, Demeke Mekonnen, has met with UN senior officials to discuss the latest developments in Tigray.

CORRECTION: Journalist (as per yesterday’s report) not arrested but journey was delayed.

 

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links

https://sayarainternational.com/rapid-research-on-the-humanitarian-crisis-in-ethiopia/
https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2020/12/16/Ethnic-profiling-Tigray-tensions-Ethiopia
https://twitter.com/RAbdiAnalyst/status/1339228121216725008?s=20
http://www.africaglobalvillage.com/first-foreign-aid-arrives-in-tigray-as-civillians-recount-the-horrors/
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201215-terrified-survivors-recount-attacks-on-civilians-in-tigray
Sudan Tribune

 

ሶስቱ የጥፋት ፈረሶችና የኢትዮጵያ ፍጻሜ!

አሁን ካለንበት የትግራይ ጦርነት ብኋላ፣ መደምደሚያው ምንም ይሁን፣ ኢትዮጵያ እንደ አገር የመቀጠል እድሏ ተመናምኗል። አክትሞላታል ማለት ይቻላል። ህወሓት ጦርነቱን ቢያሽንፍ እንኳን ተመልሶ አገር በማስተዳደር ረገድ ከእንግዲህ ድርሻ ይኖረዋል ብሎ ማሰብ የዋህነት ነው። ህዝቡም ህወሓትም ያንን እድል/ሁኔታ ዳግም የሚፈልጉት አይመስለኝም። ጠላት ከሚሉት ኢሳያስ አፈወርቂ ጋር የራሳቸውን ህዝብ እየደበደቡ ያሉት ባንዳዎቹና ግልገል ተነጣፊዎቻቸው ከቀናቸው ኢትዮጵያን ማስቀጠል የሚችሉበት ቁመና ላይ ሊሆኑ አይችሉም። ዝርዝሩን አቀርባለሁ።
የኦሮሚያ ብልጽግና፣ የአማራ ብልጽግናና የሻዕቢያ አላቻ ጋብቻ በልጅነቴ እየሰማሁት ያደግሁት የዘንዶ ታሪክ ያስታውሰኛል። እነዚህ ሶስቱ ሀይሎች በተናጠል ከህወሓት አንጻር ሲታዩ ቁጫጭ ናቸው። በጋራ ካልሆነ በተናጠል ህወሓትን መሞከር ቀርቶ ማሰብ የማይታሰብ ነው። ጋብቻቸው ስትራቴጂካል ነው፤ በቅድሚያ በጋራ ተረባርበው ይጥሉታል፣ አንደኛው ለስልጣኑ፣ ሁለተኛው ለመሬቱ ሶስተኛው ለበቀል። ሶስቱም ግን ሌላ የሚያመሳስላቸው አንድ ወሳኝ ባህሪ አለ። ሶስቱም ኤክስፓንሺንስት/ተስፋፊ ና ኦፖርቹኒስቲክ ናቸው። በለስ ቀንቷቸው ህወሓትን ካስወገዱ፣ ባስወገዱ በማግስቱ ሌላ የመስፋፋትና እርስ በእርስ የመዋዋጥ ጌም ይጀምራሉ፥
1 የኦሮሚያው ብልጽግና ሁለቱን የሚፈልጋቸው ለሚቀጥሉት አስርት አመታት ስልጣን ላይ ለመቆየት መጠቀሚያ ለማድረግ ነው። ካልጠቀለላቸው ይህን ማሳካት አልችልም ብሎ ነው የሚያስበው። ከእርሱ ፈቃድ ውጪ መግባትና መውጣት የማይችሉ፣ ወዶና ፈቅዶ ብቻ ስልጣን የሚሸነሽናቸው አሻንጉሊቶች መሆን የግድ አለባቸው። አለበለዚያ የቀድሞ ጓዶቻቸውን ጉድጓድ ይጋራሉ። በሀሳብ ደረጃ፣ ሶማሊያን፣ ጅቡቲ፣ ኤርትራን፣ ሱዳንን ጠቅልለን በምስራቅ አፍሪካ ታላቅ “አገር” በገዳ አምሳል እንመሰርታለን የሚል ጽንፍ የረገጠ ተስፋፊ አጀንዳ ይዞ የተነሳ ቡድን መሆኑ አይዘነጋም።
2 የአማራ ብልጽግና የመሬት ይገባኛል ጥያቄ በወልቃይትና በራያ አይመለስም። በሰሜን በኩል አሰብን ይጠይቃል። ዳር ድንበሬ ቀይ ባህር ድረስ ነው ይላል። ከኦሮሚያም ሰፋፊ የሚጠይቃቸው ግዛቶችና ከተሞች አሉት። በድሮዋ የኢትዮጵያ ካርታ የሚታየው የአገሪቱ ክፍል በጠቅላላ የአማራ ግዛት ነው። የአማራ መሬት ነው። ጠንካራ ኢኮኖሚ፣ ጠንካራ ሰራዊት፣ በመገንባት ማእከሉን ይቆጣጠራል። ወይም መቆጣጠር አለብኝ ብሎ ያስባል። ካለበለዚያ ህልውናው ሁሌም አደጋ ላይ እንደወደቀ ይሰማዋል። እየተሽሎከልለከና በሁለት ሶስት ፓርቲዎች እየተደራጀ ጡንቻውን ማፈርጠም ከህዝብ ያልተሰወረ ስልቱ ነው።
3 ኢሳያስ ህወሓት በተወገደ ማግስት ከኋላ ሆኜ እዘውራለሁ፣ ኢትዮጵያን በእጃዙር እገዛለሁ ብሎ ነው የሚያምነው። እየኮረኮመ የሚያሰራውን ከመጋረጃው ጀርባ በቡችላው አብይ አማካኝነት መሾም መቻል ይሆናል ነው ምኞቱ። ካልሆነ ከወዲ ዜናዊ ጋር የተጀመረው ጸብ በሲዝን ሁለት ይቀጥላል።
አስተዋላችሁ? በመካከላቸው እርስ በእርሳቸውም ሆነ፣ ከነሱ ውጪ ካለው ቡድን ጋር በእኩልነት መኖር የሚያስችል አጀንዳና የስነልቦና ቅድመዝግጁነት የላቸውም። ባህሪያቸው አንዱ ሌላኛውን ውጦ መዘንደድ ነው። ህወሓት በክልል ቆራርጦ ኢትዮጵያን ቢያሳንሳትም፣ በህግ አውቶኖሚውን ለክልሎች ሰጥቷል። ተጠቅመውበታል አልተጠቀሙበትም ሌላ ጉዳይ ሆኖ፣ ካልተመቻቸው እስከመገንጠል ድረስ ልዩ መብት የሚያጎናጽፍ ህገመንግስት ሰጥቷቸዋል። ትናንሽ ግን አውቶኖመስ የሆኑ የፖለቲካ ዩኒቶች (ክልሎችና ልዩ ዞኖች) በእኩልነትና በመፈቃቀድ የተመሰረተ አብሮነት ሲኖራቸው ብቻ አገር በጋራ ያስቀጥላሉ፤ ተብሎ ለ30 አመታት (ግማሹ የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ የተመረተበት አመታት) ተሰርቶበታል። ኖረውበታልም።
ገሚሱ የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ ከዚህ የአስተዳደር ሲስተም ውጪ ሌላ የሚያውቀው ነገር የለም። እንደ አይንአር በአንዴ ጠርገህ ልታጸዳውና ሊረሳ የሚችል ጉዳይ አይደለም። እናም በማዕከላዊ መንግስት ይሁንታና ፈቃድ የሚሾሙ የሙስጠፌ፣ የተመስገን ምናምን አይነት ታማኝነታቸው ለአንድ ግለሰብ የሆኑ መሪዎችና ለይስሙላ ብቻ የሚሰየሙ ምክር ቤት ይኖራችኋል፣ ቢባሉ ማናቸውም አሜን ብለው አይቀበሉትም። የቀመሷት ነገር አለች የምትጥም፣ የምትጣፍጥ። ማንነቴን፣ ባህሌን፣ ቋንቋዬን፣ እምነቴን፣ የሚሏት ነገር።
አንዱ ሌላኛውን ሰልቅጦ ለመዘንደድ ሲቧጨቁ፣ ሌላው ለማንነቱ ሲንተጋተግ፣ ሰላም፣ መረጋጋት፣ ልማት፣ አገር፣ ብሎ ነገር ፈጽሞ ያከትምለታል።
ድሕረ ህወሓት የምትኖረው ኢትዮጵያ የፈራረሰች ኢትዮጵያ ብቻ ናት። የታሪክ መጻህፍት ላይ ብቻ የምታገኟት። ፍጻሜዋ ያላማረ። በ21ኛው ክፍለዘመን በእርስ በእርስ ጦርነት እስከዘላለሙ ያሸለበች ኢትዮጵያ።
ይህ እንዳይመጣ ነበር፣ በድርድርና በውይይት አብሮ የሚያኗኑር መላ ፈልጉ፤ ካቃታችሁ ያለው የፌደራሊዝም ስርዓት ይቀጥል ወይስ በሌሎች አማራጮች (ጂኦግራፊ መሰረት ያደረገ ፌደራሊዝም፣ ፍጹም አሃዳዊ ወዘተ) እንተካው ብላችሁ ህዝቡን ጠይቃችሁ በሪፈረንደም ለአንዴና ለመጨረሻ ጊዜ እልባት ያግኝ፤ ብለን ስንመክራችሁ የኖርነው። በመፈቃቀድ ላይ የተመሰረተና የብዙሃን ይሁንታ ያገኘ ስርዓት ከመመምስረት ውጪ ሌላ አምራጭ የላችሁም ስንላችሁ የኖርነው በምክንያት ነው። ኢትኒክ ፌደራሊዝም በጉልበት ተጭኖ ሙሉ ተቀባይነትን እንዳላገኘ ሁሉ፣ አሃዳዊ ስርዓት በጉልበት ተጭኖ ሙሉ ተቀባይነትን አያገኝም። ግማሹን የህበረተሰብ ክፍል ያገለለ ስርዓት ደግሞ መቼም ቢሆን አይጸናም። እናም ከወዲሁ እላለሁ …
ነፍስ ይማር!

Situation reports EEPA HORN

Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website or here:

Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 1, 17 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 2, 18 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 3, 19 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 4, 20 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 5, 22 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 6, 24 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 7, 25 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 8, 26 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 9, 27 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 10, 28 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 11, 29 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 12, 30 November 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 13, 01 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 14, 02 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 15, 03 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 16, 04 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 17, 05 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 18, 07 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 19, 08 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 20, 09 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 21, 10 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 22, 11 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 23, 12 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 24, 13 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 25, 14 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 26, 15 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 27, 16 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 28, 17 December 2020
Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 29, 18 December 2020