Trump’s Withdrawal From Somalia Is a Security Threat. Biden Should Reverse It

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Source: Foreign Policy | Abdi Yusuf

U.S. troops are scheduled to leave the country on Jan. 15, opening the door for al-Shabab terrorists to step up their attacks. The new administration should recommit to protecting the country.

Years of hard-fought gains to stabilize Somalia and defeat the al-Shabab terrorist group are now endangered by President Donald Trump’s threat to withdraw U.S. forces. Not unlike the fragile gains the United States achieved defeating the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, Somalia’s future rests on sound judgment and Washington’s continued engagement. Without persistent pressure from U.S. forces, al-Shabab’s leaders will be able to emerge from hiding, reorganize, and conduct attacks not just in Somalia but across the region, including against key U.S. allies such as Ethiopia and Kenya. However, there’s still time to change course. The current administration’s Jan. 15 deadline to withdraw U.S. troops from Somalia is rapidly approaching.

In all likelihood, the Trump administration will not reverse course on any major policy decision in the lead-up to President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, and the withdrawal will continue as planned. If this is indeed the case, Biden must move swiftly after inauguration to redeploy troops back to their original bases in Somalia.

Biden must move swiftly after inauguration to redeploy troops back to their original bases in Somalia.

Not doing so risks Somalia falling back into the hands of al-Shabab and endangers the lives of not only Somalia’s citizens but those from Western countries residing in the region.

Since 1991, the ongoing civil war in Somalia has killed more than 300,000 people and injured countless others. As the country recovers, a continuing U.S. presence will be crucial to maintaining stability.

Currently, Somalia is showing signs of recovery and gradually becoming a popular destination for business, mainly due to its enhanced security situation in recent years. The persistent efforts of the international community, led by the United States, have made this possible. For decades, the U.S. government has provided training and equipment to Somalia’s armed forces. The U.S.-trained unit Danab conducted many successful operations against al-Shabab, which has killed more than 4,000 people, including Americans.

Two months ago, a CIA paramilitary officer was killed while fighting alongside Danab. In early 2020, al-Shabab launched an attack against U.S. forces in Kenya, killing three Americans and destroying a U.S. surveillance plane.

These sacrifices have not been in vain. Thanks to U.S. involvement in Somalia, a 9/11-style attack against the U.S. homeland was recently foiled—a reminder of the mutually beneficial relationship between the two countries.

This relationship is now at risk. On Dec. 4, Trump ordered the removal of U.S. soldiers from Somalia by early 2021.

The proposed withdrawal comes at an especially critical time and is a risk to the stability of the entire region. Indeed, Ethiopia is in the middle of a civil war and has withdrawn thousands of its troops who had been helping the Somali army fight against al-Shabab. Kenya-Somalia relations are at their lowest point in years, and domestic tensions are high over the upcoming elections and a string of attacks and assassinations. If the United States goes ahead with its withdrawal, it could have a huge impact on stability in Somalia, deal a major blow to morale among Somalia’s armed forces, and raise questions about U.S. credibility.

The proposed withdrawal comes at an especially critical time and is a risk to the stability of the entire region.

U.S. Defense Department officials claim the United States will “retain the capability to conduct targeted counterterrorism operations in Somalia, and collect early warnings and indicators.” However, in the eyes of many Somalis, Washington is abandoning the country. “Al-Shabab will frame this as a victory,” said Omar Mahmood, a senior Somalia analyst at the International Crisis Group. “They will use it as evidence of their ability to take on a world power like the United States and force them to leave Somalia.”

U.S. officials claim that moving troops to neighboring countries such as Kenya and Djibouti will have no major consequences. Somali officials disagree; former Danab chief Col. Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh criticized the move, saying that the U.S. military “can launch and stage operations from countries like Djibouti and Kenya, but it’s not the same as being in the country. … You can’t train a force remotely.” U.S. support in planning and launching raids in Somalia is a critical component of the fight against al-Shabab—one that cannot easily be replaced.

It is true that a permanent U.S. military presence in Somalia is not a long-term solution. However, this transition should happen with the help of the international community. The Somali government has started to see success toward building an effective security force, thanks in large part to Washington’s unwavering support for Somalia and its people. With U.S. support, the Somali army was able to reduce al-Shabab’s military capabilities, diminish its territorial control, and bring peace back to large areas of Somalia. But the group remains a persistent threat to the region.

Now more than ever, Somalia needs the support of the United States. Leaving Somalia to fend for itself would risk erasing years of progress. Al-Shabab could reconquer territory, strengthen its military capabilities, and increase its stranglehold over the Somali people. “It’s my hope therefore that the U.S. government will reevaluate its decision and hopefully change,” one Danab officer—who prefers to remain anonymous—told me.

The Biden administration needs to increase U.S. efforts in Somalia in order to strengthen the government’s capabilities to contain the threat posed by al-Shabab. The first step Biden can take would be an immediate redeployment, followed by concrete assurances of future U.S. support. Otherwise, America’s hard-fought efforts to bring peace and stability to Somalia will have been in vain.

Abdi Yusuf is an international affairs researcher and a freelance writer based in Nairobi.

 

Sudan sends delegation to neighboring countries, bans aviation over state bordering Ethiopia

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Sudan sends delegation to neighboring countries to talk over the country’s border dispute with Ethiopia. 

Sudan’s Transitional Council and the Joint Council of Ministers have decided to visit neighboring countries regarding the country’s border dispute with Ethiopia, Al Ain News reported.

Authorities are reportedly in Cairo, Asmara, Juba and Saudi Arabia to explain the situation.

Lieutenant General Shamsedin Kabashi, a member of the Transitional Federal Council (TFP) is in South Sudan, Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, vice chairman of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Eritrea, Lieutenant General Ibrahim Jabir, a member of the Transitional Federal Council (TFP) in Chad, and Mohammed Faki Suleiman in Saudi Arabia.

Acting Foreign Minister Omar Kemedin, Chief of Intelligence General Jamal Aden Omar, Information Minister Faisal Mohammed Salih and Lieutenant General Sham Il-Dean Kabashi, a member of the Transitional Council, left for Cairo today.

Lt. Gen. Abdulfatah Alburhan visited the Ethiopia-Sudan border. Reportedly, he told members of the defense force that he will not leave the area as it belongs to Sudan.

Aviation banned

On Thursday Sudan announced a ban on civil aviation in the airspace of Al-Qadarif state which borders Ethiopia, citing security reasons, Anadolu Agency reported.

“The Ministry of Defense has sent a decision to the Civil Aviation Authority to prevent flying over the airspace of Al-Qadarif State,” Abdelhafez Abdelrahim, the spokesman for the Sudanese Civil Aviation Authority, told Anadolu Agency.

The decision was based on “security reasons,” he added.

The two East African nations have been locked in a border dispute since December when Sudanese forces crossed into Ethiopia saying they were reclaiming their lands.

Dozens Die in Ethnic Massacre in Troubled Ethiopian Region

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Source: The New York Times | Simon Marks and Declan Walsh

It was the latest of several bloody outbursts over the past year in the western region of Benishangul-Gumuz, along the border with Sudan, where ethnic tensions are running high.

At least 80 people were killed on Tuesday when unidentified gunmen stormed through a village in western Ethiopia in the latest of a series of ethnically driven massacres in the area, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and witnesses said on Wednesday.

The massacre in Benishangul-Gumuz region, along the border with Sudan, is the latest challenge to the regime of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who came to power in 2018 promising to unite Ethiopia but has struggled to contain a growing wave of ethnic violence.

The attacks further threaten the stability of Africa’s second-most populous nation at a time when Mr. Abiy is already embroiled in an escalating conflict in the northern Tigray region, where he launched a major military operation on Nov. 4 that he said was intended to capture defiant local leaders.

Analysts say the campaign in Tigray has hampered Mr. Abiy’s ability to stem clashes like the recent one in Benishangul-Gumuz, because it has forced him to divert soldiers from across Ethiopia to Tigray. As a result, ethnic clashes that had already been growing for months have only gotten worse.

In the latest episode, witnesses said that men of the Gumuz ethnic group, armed with rifles and swords, stormed into Daletti village early Tuesday. Photos from the aftermath of the attack, provided by local activists, showed bloodied bodies of women and children strewn on the ground, many with horrific wounds. They said that many of the victims were ethnic Amharas and Agaws, who are a minority in that region.

“A group of Gumuz men came to our village chanting ‘leave our land,’” said Sebsibie Ibrahim, 36, a shop owner in Metekel district, speaking by phone. “They fired their guns and used swords to attack anyone they came across — women, children, elderly people.”

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In the chaos that followed, houses were torched and an old man was beheaded outside his house, Mr. Sebsibie said. “Blood was flooding from his neck,” he said.

On Dec. 22, Mr. Abiy took time out from the campaign in Tigray to visit Benishangul-Gumuz and calm tensions in the area. But a day later, armed men attacked a village, leaving at least 100 people dead, according to human rights groups.

Aaron Maasho, a spokesman for the government-funded Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, which reported the killings on Wednesday, urged Mr. Abiy to deploy extra security forces to keep the peace in the troubled region.

“For the umpteenth time, we call on the federal and regional authorities to scale up security in Metekel,” he said, referring to the district of Benishangul-Gumuz where the killings took place.

Mr. Abiy’s decision to open up Ethiopian politics after he came to power in 2018, releasing political prisoners and allowing exiles to return, was widely acclaimed. But it also unleashed simmering ethnic tensions.

Benishangul-Gumuz, for example, is home to five major ethnic groups, mostly from the Berta and Gumuz peoples. But the region is also home to minority Amharas, Oromos, Tigrayans and Agaws — a source of escalating tension.

Billene Seyoum, a spokeswoman for Prime Minister Abiy, did not respond to questions about the violence.

Dessalegn Chanie, an Amhara opposition politician, said there had been signs in recent days that armed men from the Oromo and Gumuz ethnic groups were preparing an attack, particularly in areas where there was little federal security presence.

“These attacks were premeditated and highly prepared,” he said.

Although Mr. Abiy declared victory in Tigray last month, United Nations officials say the fight continues.

On Wednesday, Ethiopia said its military had killed three senior members of Tigray’s former ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, including Seyoum Mesfin, a former foreign minister of Ethiopia.

Without U.S. Aid, Where Would Egypt Turn?

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Terminating U.S. aid to Cairo would jeopardize the long-standing U.S.-Egyptian relationship and regional stability for years to come.

As a candidate, Joe Biden issued a stern warning to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, pledging “no more blank checks for Trump’s favorite dictator.” Biden and his team have signaled they would limit or in some cases halt support for countries based on their human rights records, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Biden’s team has threatened to condition the $1.5 annual bilateral aid the United States has provided Egypt since 1946. Following the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, which was signed subsequent to the Camp David Accords in 1979, U.S. military and economic assistance to Cairo has increased significantly. Every U.S. administration has justified the continuation of aid to Cairo as necessary for sustaining regional stability, safeguarding U.S. interests, and prolonging cooperation with the Egyptian military.

Limiting U.S. aid to Cairo would jeopardize the long-standing U.S.-Egyptian relationship for years to come. At the same time, denunciations over El-Sisi’s human rights record are legitimate. During his presidency, El-Sisi has unjustly imprisoned human rights defenders, journalists and activists in Egypt, reversing freedoms achieved in the 2011 Arab Spring uprising. However, terminating dialogue with Cairo would be harmful to regional security, as Egypt would lean on other human rights abusers for support instead.

El-Sisi took this threat seriously and in recent months began veering Egypt away from the U.S. and towards Western adversaries—including China. On August 5, Egypt agreed to let China establish a Mediterranean container terminal in Abu Qir, extending China’s reach and ability to bolster its One Belt One Road initiative in the Middle East. El-Sisi’s outreach to China poses severe implications for U.S. policy as it demonstrates Egypt’s willingness to work with Western adversaries to ensure its economic and military security.

Biden’s Middle East team must also consider the importance of sustained Israeli-Egyptian cooperation while it contemplates potential Egypt policy agendas. Four decades of peace between Israel and Egypt have been a highly important asset to the region. Since both countries signed the 1979 peace accord, Egypt has played an essential role in safeguarding Israel’s security on its western border with Gaza, which has been controlled by Hamas since 2007. Cairo and Tel Aviv’s shared disdain for the de facto governing authority in Gaza has contributed to their common ground. Egyptian and Israeli forces have worked together to counter the Sinai insurgency, an ongoing ISIS affiliated uprising on the peninsula. If the United States terminates supporting Egypt’s collaborative counter-terror efforts through military technology transfers and monetary aid, the Cairo-Tel Aviv relationship will be tested.

In addition to the Israel-Egypt relationship, cooperation between the United States and Egypt significantly cuts across multiple spheres, including security, counterterrorism, and intelligence. Both the Obama and Trump administrations defended continual aid to Egypt as crucial for regional stability. In 2013 the Obama administration partially halted its supply of military equipment to Egypt following the coup d’état that brought President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to power. However, these limitations were lifted two years later in the “name of U.S. national security,” according to Obama administration officials. The equipment freeze was reversed since Egypt’s counter-terrorism efforts and anti-ISIS operations in the Sinai region and Libya were prioritized.

French President Emmanuel Macron recently faced pressure to limit and condition the sale of weapons to Egypt on the basis of human rights violations. However, Macron chose a different course than what Biden reportedly is planning. During a joint news conference in Paris with Egyptian President El-Sisi on December 7, Macron announced France would not abide by this strategy as it would be a detriment to Cairo’s ability to counter terrorism in the region. Macron stated he “would not condition matters of defense and economic cooperation on these disagreements (over human rights)…it is more effective to have a policy of demanding dialogue than a boycott which would only reduce the effectiveness of one our partners in the fight against terrorism.”

Terminating dialogue with Egypt will not lead to the cessation of human rights violations. In order to sustain its counter-terror capabilities and economic security, El-Sisi will unquestionably look to other authoritarian human rights abusers, including China and Russia, as replacements for support. The United States often has to make difficult national security decisions to cooperate with states with poor human rights records. Instead of boycotting Cairo and ultimately pushing them toward unsavory new partnerships, the U.S. could take up a two-track approach to Egypt, prioritizing the advancement of security issues while simultaneously pushing for improvements in human rights.

Maya Carlin is an Analyst with the Center for Security Policy located in Washington DC. She is a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel, where she completed her MA in Counter-terrorism and Homeland Security.

Outrage over damage to Tigray mosque

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Source: Middle East Eye | Zecharias Zelalem

Details of the damage inflicted on the al-Nejashi mosque – believed to be one of the oldest mosques in Africa – took weeks to emerge

Nejashi

 

The conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region – pitting the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies against rebel Tigray forces since 4 November – has caused concern over its humanitarian toll, with tens of thousands of Ethiopians fleeing to neighbouring Sudan and allegations surfacing of violent crimes against civilians.

In recent weeks, outrage has poured in on social media as news emerged that the conflict had also touched one of the region’s most revered religious heritage sites: the historical al-Nejashi mosque in the area of Wukro.

One of Africa’s oldest mosques and touted as a potential Unesco World Heritage site, al-Nejashi has been mourned as one of the casualties of the chaos of war – while belated government vows to repair it have been treated with suspicion.

Worrying rumours

Since fighting began in Tigray over two months ago, the area has been cut off from the rest of the world due to internet and phone outages. Ethiopian authorities have also barred journalists and aid workers from much of the region.

Mounting reports of potential war crimes and infrastructural damage have therefore been difficult to authenticate, as Addis Ababa continues to resist calls from the United Nations to grant it unfettered access to the region, where it estimates over a million people have been internally displaced.

In late November, rumours began to surface on social media of fighting in Wukro, more than 800km north of the Ethiopian capital. Accounts emerged that several houses of worship – including the al-Nejashi mosque and the nearby Amanuel Orthodox church – had been shelled around that time.

On 27 November, an Ethiopian army commander told Ethiopian state broadcaster FBC that his troops had secured control of the area, but made no mention of damage to religious sites.

A day later, Ethiopian troops captured the regional capital of Mekelle and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared the war over.

But telephone and internet services are yet to be restored to Wukro and its surroundings, as fighting persists in rural areas.

On 18 December, a communique by the Belgium-based Europe External Programme with Africa reported that the mosque “was first bombed and later looted by Ethiopian and Eritrean troops”, before mentioning that sources in the region spoke of killings at the mosque.

Distress over the incident reached fever pitch on New Year’s Day, when photos and video footage of the significantly damaged al-Nejashi mosque first appeared on social media, going viral.

Images showed the mosque’s minaret destroyed, its dome partially collapsed and its facade in ruins. Inside the mosque, rubble littered the floor.

Ahmed Siraj, a representative of the regional International Association of Muslims in Tigray, told Middle East Eye that his organisation had recorded the deaths of several people killed by combatants in the wake of the partial destruction of the mosque.

“We have determined from our sources that a number of innocent people, including a father of four children, were killed by Eritrean soldiers simply for protesting against the mosque’s pillaging on 26 November,” Siraj said.

Siraj added that a number of artefacts were believed to have been stolen from the mosque, including religious manuscripts, books and letters dating as far back as the seventh century, while a shrine believed to hold the remains of some followers of the Prophet Muhammad was also in need of repairs.

An official from the state-run Ethiopian Heritage Preservation Authority said on 5 January that a team would be sent to inspect the mosque’s damage, as well as that of a nearby church, before repairs were undertaken.

But Siraj said such efforts couldn’t undo the human and cultural toll.

“Repairs won’t bring them back. Nor will it bring back the stolen artefacts,” he said.

The office of the Ethiopian premier had not responded to a MEE request for comment at the time of writing.

Renowned history

Confirmation of the damage inflicted to the al-Nejashi mosque provoked widespread shock and outrage among Ethiopians, Muslims and Christians alike.

The iconic mosque was built in the seventh century and is among the holiest sites in Islam.

Ahmedin Jebel, a prominent Ethiopian Muslim scholar and writer, told MEE that the mosque was reportedly built by early followers of the prophet fleeing persecution from the ruling Quraysh tribe in Mecca.

The prophet reportedly told a dozen of his followers to head towards the kingdom of Aksum – located in present-day Ethiopia – where the Christian king, known as Nejashi, would offer them sanctuary.

“Twelve men and four women took heed of the prophet’s advice and made the pilgrimage to the Kingdom of Aksum,” Jebel said. “Among them, Ruqayyah bint Muhammad, daughter of the prophet himself.

“In Islam, the mosque has a renowned rich history of justice and tolerance, as King Nejashi rejected bribes from the Quraysh to turn in his guests who had fled their homelands seeking freedom,” he added. “Mosques around the world have since been named in Nejashi’s honour.”

Jebel was pessimistic about the Ethiopian Authority for Research and Conservation of Cultural Heritage’s initiative to repair the mosque.

“There was a concentrated effort by the preservation authority to cover up the mosque’s destruction for weeks,” he explained. “The fact that the destruction of a mosque as cherished and prominent as the al-Nejashi mosque could be kept secret this long has me doubting whether they would put in a sincere effort to hasten repairs.”

Government silence

Prior to the publication of images of the mosque, Ethiopian government officials hadn’t addressed growing accounts of the mosque’s destruction.

While information has been difficult to verify due to strict government restrictions in Tigray, the most well-circulated account of events has alleged that the mosque was hit by either Eritrean or Ethiopian army heavy weaponry, before being looted by allied Eritrean soldiers.

Akemel Negash is a journalist and senior editor for local news outlet Amba Digital, which was the first media organisation to cover the mosque’s destruction prior to the release of the pictures. He echoed Jebel’s sentiments and said authorities’ deafening silence was an effort to avoid backlash.

‘It left me devastated. There’s no precedent for this. The al-Nejashi mosque has been around for millennia’

– Ahmed Siraj, International Association of Muslims in Tigray

“The federal government has been prompt to report on the destruction of property throughout the war, but only when it’s caused by their foes,” he told MEE.

“The destruction of Aksum Airport by Tigrayan rebel forces was given immediate airtime on state media. Images of homes and hospitals said to have been destroyed by them have been widely circulated as well.

“But when the government’s allied forces destroy something as prominent as one of Islam’s most cherished heritage sites, they keep it hushed until citizen journalists exposed it. They were well aware of it, but said nothing as it didn’t serve political ambitions,” he added.

While many appear unconvinced by the government’s pledges to swiftly repair the mosque, for Tigray Muslims such Siraj, the damage is already done.

“It left me devastated,” Siraj said. “There’s no precedent for this. The al-Nejashi mosque has been around for millennia.

“In that time, there have been all sorts of tyrants in Ethiopia, including some who targeted Muslims for oppression. But none of them dared touch the mosque,” he added.

“The fact that this would first happen in the 21st century is especially shocking and should be worrying for all Ethiopians.”

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 55 – 14 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 13 January)

● The chief commander of one of the Eritrean divisions fighting in the Eastern front in Tigray has been captured alive by Tigray regional forces.

● ENDF states it has killed three members of the leadership of TPLF who held high office in Ethiopia: Seyoum Mesfin, foreign minister of Ethiopia from 1991 until 2010; Abay Tsehaye, former Federal Affairs Minister and Asmelash Woldesellassie, ex-parliamentary chief whip of the Ethiopian Parliament.

● The Ethiopian Government is arresting former retired Tigrayan officials and their spouses. Many of those are said to be arrested from their houses in Mekelle. Official reports make it appear as if they were captured in battle. It is reported that this is not true.

● It is reported from Eritrea that Sebhat Nega, the retired co-founder of TPLF, was arrested in his house in Mekelle, then taken to the Mai Idaga prison near Dekemhare in Eritrea.

● It is understood that Sebhat Nega was not captured in battle and was not captured in hiding, and that such reports are incorrect, but that he was arrested from his home, and brought to Eritrea where he was held until he was handed to the Ethiopian authorities.

● Eritrean refugees in Hitsats camp in Tigray are ordered to return to Eritrea and were forced to walk to Sheraro. From Sheraro buses and trucks take them to Eritrea.

● The ancient Monastery of Debre Damo in Tigray was bombarded by Eritrean soldiers using heavy artillery. Debre Damo, is the name of a flat-topped mountain, or amba, and a 6th-century monastery in Tigray, Ethiopia. The mountain is a steeply rising plateau about 1000 by 400 m in dimension.

● The monasteries’ church artifacts and materials were looted by Eritrean forces.

● Middle East Eye (MEE) investigates reports of the destruction of the Al-Nejashi Mosque, possibly the oldest Mosque of Africa and casualties first reported on 18 December by EEPA. The attack on the mosque would have occurred on 26th of November. Recently, pictures of the damage emerged.

● According to MEE, a representative of the regional International Association of Muslims in Tigray, Ahmed Siraj, stated several civilians were killed by Eritrean soldiers as they protested the pillaging.

● It is believed that artefacts have been stolen from the Al-Nejashi Mosque, including religious manuscripts, books and letters dating as far back as the seventh century.

● A shrine holding the remains of followers of the Prophet Muhammad in the Mosque is also damaged.

● HRW releases reports that civilians living in western Tigray, especially Humera, were unexpectedly shelled, followed by an invasion of paramilitary troops known as “Liyu Hail” from the Amhara region and ENDF forces, and young members of Amhara youth militia groups “Fano.”

● HRW reports that refugees from Humera said that “they witnessed extrajudicial executions by federal forces and their allies during the fighting or after they took over towns.”

● HRW found that witnesses said that “some of the victims were suspected TPLF members, fighters, or supporters and retired soldiers. However, businesspeople and farmers were also targeted, as were others whom the soldiers happened to have stopped, including families and children trying to flee.”

● This confirms reports received that “Several large artillery bombardments were allegedly carried out in Humera between November 9-11 2020. Witnesses report that shells were launched from Eritrea, devastating residential areas and destroying a hospital. The Ethiopian army and regional Amhara forces also allegedly then took control of Humera, where they killed civilians and looted buildings.”

● Arte shows refugees speaking about their ordeal when they fled Mai Kadra, on 9 Nov 2020. The town of Mai Kadra had Tigray and Amhara residents (farmers). The civilians speak of horrific killings, roads covered with dead bodies and bodies shoved in mass graves by tractors, with over 600 people killed. The horrific attack was carried out by Amhara, according to the witnesses interviewed by Arte.

● HRW reports that in Mai-Kadra, “a number of refugees reported seeing hundreds of dead bodies which had been shot, stabbed, or hacked with knives, machetes, and axes, including those of ethnic Amharas but also of Tigrayans. Family members from several towns said they saw loved ones killed but could not offer them a proper and dignified burial.”

● HRW finds that “People who remained in their homes or went back to their towns after the heavy fighting had subsided said they saw Amhara “special forces” and Fanos, as well as unidentified gunmen, detain those who remained, and loot abandoned and inhabited homes, shops, and hospitals. People said gold, animals, recently harvested produce, as well as goods from electronics shops were stolen. Many expressed concerns and fears about what they may face if they returned home.“

● Arte speaks to a soldier of Tigray defense forces who fled from Western Tigray as troops were overwhelmed by the mechanized divisions who entered with tanks. According to Human Rights Watch “Some residents described being caught in the crossfire between federal government and allied and TPLF forces in the farmland on the outskirts of towns as they attempted to flee or hide.”

● UN Commissioner for Human Rights, Bachelet, has stated that such killings would be classified as war crimes if “civilians were deliberately killed by a party or parties to the conflict.” She has called for an “immediate, impartial, and thorough investigation into the killings.”

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 13 January)

● The war is causing an economic crisis in Ethiopia. The federal Ethiopian government has not paid salaries in many sub cities of Addis Ababa and southern regional states.

● Opposition leader Yilkal Getnet has requested the deployment of UN peacekeeping troops in Metekel.

● US Senators Chris Murphy, Patrick Leahy and Ben Cardin have sent a letter to Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed stating that “over the last few months, the Ethiopian government has increasingly engaged in a pattern of intimidation against journalists” and demanding for the immediate release of the journalists.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 13 January)

● Eritrea has expelled the Ambassador of Egypt, end of December. He travelled to Egypt via an Ethiopian Airlines chartered flight. Eritrea accused the Ambassador of Egypt of working with the TPLF.

● Refugee Council USA expresses its concern over “ the conflict’s mounting humanitarian toll. There have been reports of civilians being targeted and killed, including aid workers, and refugees abducted.”

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Ethiopia says former foreign minister killed by military after refusing to surrender

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Government says three Tigray People’s Liberation Front officials were killed and five party members captured.

Ethiopia on Wednesday said its military killed three members of the Tigray region’s former ruling party, including former Ethiopian foreign minister Seyoum Mesfin.

Five members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front were captured and the three killed after they refused to surrender to the military, the government’s task force for Tigray said on Twitter.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government declared victory in its conflict with the Front on November 28 last year after nearly a month of fighting.

Fugitive leaders of the Front pledged to continue the fight from mountains of Tigray in northern Ethiopia, but Reuters was unable to contact them for weeks.

The military said last week it had captured Sebhat Nega, a founding member of the Front.

At the weekend, it said it killed 15 members and captured eight, state-run TV reported.

Seyoum was Ethiopia’s foreign minister from 1991 to 2010.

Air strikes and battles since early November in Tigray are believed to have killed thousands of people.

Fighting is continuing in some parts and more than 2 million people need aid, the UN said this week.

Phone and internet connections to the Tigray region are down and access to the area is strictly controlled.

Sudan blames Ethiopia for civilian deaths amid fears of new conflict

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Source: The National News

Relations between the two governments, which both field substantial armed forces, are rapidly worsening.

Sudan says government-backed Ethiopian militiamen killed five women and a child during a raid just inside its territory, further fuelling tension in the border region.

On Wednesday, Sudan warned of “dangerous consequences” for bilateral relations after an Ethiopian warplane breached Sudanese airspace in the border area, according to a foreign ministry statement. It did not specify the type of Ethiopian aircraft or say how long it stayed inside Sudanese airspace.

“The Foreign Ministry condemns this escalation by the Ethiopian side and demand that such acts are not repeated in the future,” it said.

Also on Wednesday, a Sudanese military helicopter crashed while attempting to land at an airport in the eastern Qadaref region at the end of what the military said was a reconnaissance mission. The two-man crew, both flight captains, survived the crash, it added without giving more details. It was not immediately clear whether the helicopter crew’s mission was related in any way to the tension on the border with Ethiopia.

Ethiopia’s alleged aerial intrusion came one day after Addis Ababa warned Khartoum that it was running out of patience with its continued military build-up in the border region, an area at the centre of a decades-old territorial dispute.

The two countries have been sharply at odds over a Nile dam being built by Ethiopia.

Ethiopia warned Sudan that it was running out of patience with its continued military build-up in the border region, an area at the centre of a decades-old territorial dispute.

The area in question, Al Fashqa, is within Sudan’s international boundaries, but has long been settled by Ethiopian farmers, and late last year suffered weeks of clashes between forces from the two sides.

“The Sudanese side seems to be pushing in so as to inflame the situation on the ground,” Ethiopian foreign ministry spokesman Dina Mufti said on Tuesday. “Is Ethiopia going to start a war? Well, we are saying let’s work on diplomacy.”

On the same day, Sudan’s foreign ministry strongly condemned the militia raid in its eastern breadbasket Qadaref region and called on the international community to work for the cessation of such actions.

It blamed the raid on the Al Shifta militia, an outfit widely believed to enjoy the informal backing of the Ethiopian military.

Two Sudanese women were also missing after the Monday raid, the government said.

Monday’s raid was the latest in a series of violent incidents in recent weeks in the border region. Sudanese troops moved to retake border areas long held by Ethiopia and defended by government-linked militias, who also allegedly operate smuggling rings.

The fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region forced at least 50,000 of its residents to flee their homes and seek refuge in Sudan.

Ethiopia accuses the Sudanese military of infiltrating its territory, saying Sudan was seeking to take advantage of the conflict against separatist rebels in Tigray.

Sudan’s information minister Faisal Saleh denied the Ethiopian charges.

“We fear that these comments contain a hostile position towards Sudan,” Mr Saleh said.

“We ask of Ethiopia to stop attacking Sudanese territory and Sudanese farmers.”

He also said late on Tuesday that a joint committee set up last month to resolve differences over the border has so far failed to make any progress.

Sudan and Ethiopia have long had problems along their porous border, whose demarcation was determined in agreements reached early in the last century. The two countries are bound by close cultural ties but, in various conflicts since the 1950s, both sides have supported rebel groups fighting the other’s government.

The latest round of tension on the Sudanese-Ethiopian border, however, comes at a critical time in relations.

Water wars?

The latest round of tension on the border, however, comes at a critical time in relations.

Sudan is seething over Ethiopia’s recent announcement that it would go ahead with a second filling of the water reservoir behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, starting this summer.

According to Addis Ababa, this would happen regardless of whether an agreement on the operation of the dam was reached with downstream Sudan and Egypt. Ethiopia began the initial filling of the dam last summer, without giving prior notice to either Egypt or Sudan.

The nearly complete hydroelectric dam, Africa’s largest, is built less than 20 kilometres from the border with Sudan and on completion, is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of power.

For Sudan, the absence of co-ordination on the operation of the dam could potentially spell disaster for its eastern region, through flooding and the disablement of its own hydroelectric dams on the Nile. For Egypt, the dam could mean a significant reduction in its vital share of the Nile’s waters, something Cairo says it will not tolerate.

Sudan and Egypt have been trying to persuade Ethiopia to enter a legally binding deal on the operation of the dam as well as agree on mechanisms for resolving future disputes. Ethiopia favours recommendations, rather than a binding deal.

The latest round of negotiations on the dam collapsed this week when Sudan insisted that experts from the African Union be given a greater role in drafting an agreement.

Ethiopia and Egypt rejected the suggestion, insisting the three nations must maintain ownership of the negotiating process.

ISIS, Reborn: The Islamic State’s African Revival is a Lethal Blind Spot

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Source: National Interest | Jordan Cope

With four burgeoning safe havens, ISIS has revived in Sub-Sahara and could be deadlier than ever.

ISIS–

Before 9/11, many forget that Osama Bin Laden largely made a name for himself in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Sudan, he conceived his Islamic Army Shura, laying “the groundwork for a true global terrorist network” known as Al Qaeda.

There, Bin Laden largely began to call for jihad against Western forces and gained the prowess to export terrorism against American targets, hence Al Qaeda’s attacks on U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, just two years after his expulsion.

History might just be repeating itself as the West forgets its lessons and again neglects Sub-Sahara’s intensifying terrorism.

The consequences could be grave. Just cue 2019, when a Kenyan Al Qaeda affiliate plotted to hijack a plane and execute a 9/11-style attack.

While the attack was foiled, its scare overshadows a troubled decade, in which Sub-Saharan Africa witnessed an unprecedented resurgence in Islamist groups, with Islamic State (ISIS) affiliates displacing millions while seeking to establish bases in six African countries, and at times, hosting territory the size of Belgium.

Raising further alarm, experts have described 2020 as a breakout year for ISIS affiliates, an unsurprising reality given the attacks that recently claimed fifty in Mozambique and 100 in Niger.

While history echoes, ISIS’s pivot to Africa and new festering hotspots therein could prove more dangerous than those of its Middle Eastern past.

There, ISIS has strategically established territory in cross-border zones. This tactic has allowed it to conduct attacks and disappear across borders, rendering it effectively untouchable to all affected countries—which are amongst the world’s most impoverished and unprepared to dislodge ISIS. Some hotspots also approximate natural resource basins, whose wealth, if seized, could enormously enrich the ISIS network and its capabilities.

Given the implications of inaction—an emboldened ISIS network with multiple safe havens from which it can attack the West—ISIS’s African presence commands greater attention as a top security concern.

Four hot spots warrant attention. First is West Africa, which endures multiple internal insurgencies. Most concerning is that governing Boko Haram whose presence envelopes Nigeria, Chad, Niger, and Cameroon.

Since 2009, Boko Haram has killed 36,000 and displaced 2.5 million civilians while seeking to establish a caliphate and depose Nigeria’s government. While it coordinated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb post-2010, in 2016, the group splintered, with one faction continuing with allegiance to the Islamic State West Africa Province, and the other remaining steadfast to Abubakar Shekau’s faction.

While Boko Haram’s territory once matched Belgium in size, the group’s division cost territory. Nevertheless, its presence in Nigeria’s Borno state looms large, and its positioning couldn’t be more conveniently located at the crossroads of four countries.

Such positioning has allowed Boko Haram to disappear into Chad. Last year it conducted perhaps the deadliest terrorist attack in the country’s history—killing ninety-two. It also infiltrated Niger, where it claimed twenty-eight lives and razed 800 homes, and Cameroon, where in one attack it killed seventeen.

With Nigeria unable to contain Boko Haram, it remains questionable whether any of the aforementioned countries can do so, especially given their military and economic inferiority. Whereas Nigeria’s military ranks 42nd out of 138 surveyed countries, those of the others rank no higher than 87th.

They also lack financial resources, ranking amongst the world’s poorest. Out of 190 surveyed geographic entities, Nigeria and Cameroon ranked 141st and 145th, while Chad and Niger ranked below 174th in GDP per capita.

Not to mention, Chad, the next best militarily after Nigeria, overcame a recession and had to rely on France to subvert a coup—all just in the last four years. Chad cannot afford this vulnerability as ISIS festers and its southern oil fields beckon, posing a potential lifeline and revenue source for ISIS if captured.

West Africa’s other great insurgency engrosses Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. There, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara has conquered “ungoverned space” where the three “failing” states meet.

With Mali and Burkina Faso ranking no higher than 165th in terms of GDP per capita and 96th in military might, the two likely will not fare better in preempting another impending ISIS safe-haven.

ISIS’s next major hot spot situates East Africa, particularly Mozambique’s northern border with Tanzania, where ISIS affiliates have killed 2,000 and displaced 430,000 civilians since 2017.

In Mozambique, the Islamic State in the Central African Province has captured “four tourist islands,” and Mocimboa da Praia, a port in the state of Cabo Delgado, which straddles Tanzania and boasts tremendous resource wealth—natural gas and ruby reserves approximating $50 billion in value—that if seized could enrich ISIS’s network.

ISIS has also used this position to infiltrate Tanzania, hence its October invasion, where 300 fighters killed twenty before retreating to Mozambique.

Mozambique and Tanzania’s economies and militaries rank inferior to those of Nigeria’s, suggesting that the two might struggle to suppress this third prospective safe-haven.

Quickly deserving mention is the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF)—a group with suspected ISIS-links—and its stronghold over the mountains straddling the DRC and Uganda, from Rwenzori to Ituri, where “[m]uch of the [DRC’s] gold is mined.”

While the Salafist organization has existed since 1995, it has become rather deadly recently, killing 800 Congolese civilians in 2020. While the DRC’s military ranks 71st, its economy ranks amongst the poorest, 185th.

If left unchecked, the ADF could become another asset in ISIS’s portfolio, granting ISIS pivotal access to another cross-border zone, to invaluable gold mines, and to a foothold in the DRC—the world’s most endowed per resource wealth.

With four burgeoning safe havens, ISIS has revived in Sub-Sahara and could be deadlier than ever. Embedding at the cross borders of failing countries, ISIS has achieved near untouchability. With no Sub-Saharan government able to contain its expansion in a resource-rich area, the West, whatever its response, must urgently react before ISIS can multiply its capabilities and international reach to an unparalleled degree. Let us not forget the lessons of Sudan.

 

Jordan Cope is a fellow for Middle East Forum’s Islamist Watch project. He is also regarded as an expert in the Middle East. Follow him on Twitter.

Image: Nigerian soldiers hold up a Boko Haram flag that they had seized in the recently retaken town of Damasak, Nigeria, March 18, 2015. Reuters/Emmanuel Braun.

Sudan says Ethiopian military plane crossed its border

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Ethiopia denies Sudan’s claim, which it said was a ‘dangerous escalation’ in the border dispute between both sides.

Sudan says an Ethiopian military aircraft entered its airspace in “a dangerous escalation” to a border dispute that has seen deadly clashes in recent weeks.

“In a dangerous and unjustified escalation, an Ethiopian military aircraft penetrated the Sudanese-Ethiopian borders,” Sudan’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that the move “could have dangerous ramifications and cause more tension in the border region”.

The ministry also warned Ethiopia against repeating “such hostilities”.

An Ethiopian military spokesman, General Mohamed Tessema, told the AFP news agency he had no “tangible information” on Sudan’s allegations and the situation at the border was “normal” on Wednesday.

Separately, a Sudanese military helicopter, loaded with weapons and ammunition, crashed on Wednesday shortly after taking off from an airport in an eastern province that borders Ethiopia, according to the state-run Sudan News Agency (SUNA).

“A military helicopter crashed at Wad Zayed airport in Gedarif State … when the crew tried to land the plane shortly after taking off,” SUNA reported.

The report said the plane caught fire after hitting the ground, adding that “all three members of the crew survived”.

High tensions

Tensions have been running high between the two countries over the Al-Fashaqa region, where Ethiopian farmers cultivate fertile land claimed by Sudan.

Al-Fashaqa region – which has seen sporadic clashes over the years – borders Ethiopia’s troubled Tigray region where deadly conflict erupted in November between Ethiopia’s federal and Tigray’s regional forces.

In December last year, Sudan accused Ethiopian “forces and militias” of ambushing its troops along the border, leaving four dead and more than 20 wounded.

Ethiopia said Sudanese military forces “organised attacks … using heavy machine guns” in December last year.

On Tuesday, Addis Ababa claimed Sudanese forces were pushing further into the border region and warned that while it “gives priority to peace”, it has “its limit”.

In response, Sudan’s information minister and government spokesman Faisal Mohamed Saleh said Khartoum did not want war with Ethiopia but its forces would respond to any aggression.

Khartoum also accused Ethiopian armed men of killing five women and a child on Monday in the area, calling it a “brutal aggression”.

The two sides held border talks last month, and Sudan declared its army had restored control over all border territory that had been taken over by Ethiopian farmers.

The border dispute comes at a sensitive time between the two countries, who along with Egypt have recently hit another impasse in talks over the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River.

 

Source: Al Jazeera and News Agencies