Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 66 – 25 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 24 January)

● Al Arabiya reported that Ethiopia has bombed the Abu Tayyur area, and the Sudanese army has responded. The Sudanese army has not announced any deaths due to the bombing of Ethiopia. Other news outlets state that the Sudan airforce has responded with air attacks in Ethiopia.

● Sudanese media report that authorities in Sudan prevented Ethiopia’s Ambassador to Sudan, Yibeltal Aemro, from leaving the country via land. The ambassador eventually took a flight back to Ethiopia.

● The Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, issues a statement asking “members of the public to be vigilant about fake news circulating” about the PM on social media. The statement comes after PM Abiy has not been seen in public since December 23rd and many theories are circulating on social media on the condition of the PM, including that the PM was flown to a hospital abroad. Others say he was seen this week with his military commanders, but not in the media.

● Among increasing speculation of the situation of PM Abiy, far right Amhara party high officials have started posting in social media: ‘now is the time’. There is increasing concern over the political stability and questions raised why PM Abiy is not appearing in public.

● Social media also report that the Interim President of the Tigray region, Mula Nega, handed in a resignation letter, with as reason “the plight of the people of Tigray who are starving to death and sexually harassed by foreign forces” and that the the administration had no say in any matter; the resignation would have been submitted to the Office of the PM, and Nega is waiting for a response.

● Report that 48 priests were killed, allegedly by Eritrean forces, in a massacre at the orthodox church of Adi Fetaw village near Gerihu Sernay Town, Tigray, not far from the Eritrean border.

● Eritrean forces killed 24 priests in a massacre in the Edaga Arbi area, Central Zone, Tigray, today 24/11.

● Detailed report of looting in Yeha: “Eritrean soldiers went from house to house. They looted many objects, even clothes. Other objects were broken so that they cannot be used any more. They group-raped an 8th month pregnant lady. They continued the looting in surrounding villages, up to the monastery of Abune Mezraete in the hills above, where some of the church equipment was stolen. The Eritrean soldiers are either very young, below 18, or old, between 60 and 70 years.”

● The report about Yeha also identified: “The checkpoints by Eritrean soldiers in that area are strict. There are many. They want to avoid that young men move and get trained.”

● It is reported that in May Hanse city close to Hitsats, near Shire, Tigray, an Eritrean Colonel gathered local residents and said Eritrea will rule them as of that time. He said, if they accept this, they can live there, if not, they have to leave the place.

● Eritrea is claiming territory deep into Tigray. Eritrean troops have put their flags in Sheraro.

● It is reported that the Amhara members of the national Orthodox leadership had proposed that the Ark of the Covenant from Aksum would be taken to Tana (Bahir Dar) for temporary protection. This caused the bloodshed in Aksum at the Maryam Zion Church. People in Aksum did not accept the proposal but thought it was a pretext to steal the Ark of the Covenant, regarded as ‘a robbery of heritage’. The people were prepared to defend the Ark with their life.

● Detailed direct report of an entire family having been killed in Aksum. Previous reports indicated that massacres had taken place in Aksum, allegedly carried out by Eritrean soldiers.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 24 January)

● Ethiopian government will be setting up local militias in the Metekel Zone of the Benishangul-Gumuz region to combat the recent increase of violent intercommunal attacks. ‘’Locals will be trained and armed to defend themselves” said Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, Demeke Mokenen, during his visit to IDPs from the Metekel Zone.

● An official, who holds a high position in the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry and asked for anonymity, told Anadolu Agency that “Egypt has intensified its destabilization efforts against Ethiopia and the volatile Horn of Africa region.”

● TPLF-leader Sebhat Nega stated during his court appearance in Addis Ababa (15/1): “I don’t want to speak Amharic because I can’t. Until I got arrested I never thought about Tigray but Ethiopia. You took us to the mountains from our houses without a single changing cloth, none of us has been captured from the mountains”. This confirms reports that the elderly leaders were arrested in their houses. He appeared in court together with Keriya Ibrahim, former Speaker of the House of Federation of Ethiopia.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 24 January)

● Killings in Tigray of former Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin and two other former senior political figures are reason for concern, as they were elderly and in poor health, says former Prime Minister of New Zealand, Helen Clark, pointing to demands of a high-level international investigation.

● The World Health Organization is putting out a warning that the conflict in Tigray may lead to the spreading of deadly diseases, as health services have been disrupted. The WHO reports that the incidence of COVID-19 in the Tigray region is higher than the average for the country.

● Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization says he was honoured to speak with VP Kamala Harris on the commitment of the Biden administration to the WHO.

● Questions raised as to whether the 2018 Peace Agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea was a precursor to the war establishing an alliance of Ethiopia and Eritrea and the United Arab Emirates, providing the Emirates with a military base in Assab, Eritrea. The alliance is accused of a strategy of a “scorched earth war and deliberate mass starvation in what is a genocide in the making.”

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Ethiopia’s leader must answer for the high cost of hidden war in Tigray

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The Guardian | Simon Tisdall | Abiy Ahmed should hand back his Nobel peace prize over his actions in the breakaway region that have raised the spectre of famine again.

Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s long-serving former foreign minister, was one of the foremost African diplomats of his generation. He was gunned down this month in Tigray by the armed forces of a lesser man – Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister and Nobel peace prize winner. Some suggest it was the Eritrean military, Abiy’s allies, who killed Seyoum, although their presence in Tigray is officially denied. The circumstances of his death remain murky.

As with much of the unreported, unchallenged murder and mayhem currently occurring in northern Ethiopia, murky is what Abiy prefers. When he ordered the army’s assault on the breakaway Tigray region in November, he blocked the internet, shut out aid agencies and banned journalists. It’s a conflict he claims to have won – but the emerging reality is very different. It’s a war fought in the shadows, with the outside world kept in the dark.

After humanitarian workers finally gained limited access this month, it was estimated that 4.5 million of Tigray’s 6 million people need emergency food aid. Hundreds of thousands are said to face starvation. The UN warns that Eritrean refugees in the Mai Aini and Adi Harush camps are in “desperate need of supplies” and harassed by armed gangs. Some are said to have been forcibly, illegally repatriated.

Access continues to be denied to two other camps, Shimelba and Hitsats, which have been set ablaze. Many of the camps’ residents are believed to have fled marauding Eritrean and Amhara militiamen. Satellite images published by UK-based DX Open Network reportedly show damage to 400 structures at Shimelba. Filippo Grandi, head of the UN refugee agency, points to “concrete indications of major violations of international law”.

There are persistent, unconfirmed reports of massacres, torture, rapes, abductions, and the looting or destruction of centuries-old manuscripts and artefacts across Tigray. Last week, EEPA, a Belgium-based NGO, described a massacre of 750 people at a cathedral in Aksum that reputedly houses the Ark of the Covenant. Ethiopian troops and Amhara militia are accused of the killings at the Church of St Mary of Zion, part of a UN World Heritage site. The report has not been independently verified.

Despite Abiy’s claims that the war is over and no civilians have been harmed, sporadic fighting continues, an analyst familiar with government thinking said. Thousands of people have died, about 50,000 have fled to Sudan, and many are homeless, sheltering in caves. Intentional artillery attacks have destroyed hospitals and health centres in an echo of the Syrian war, the analyst said.

Meeting this month in Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, aid workers complained Ethiopia’s government was still hindering relief efforts and demanded full access. “People are dying of starvation. In Adwa, people are dying while they are sleeping. [It’s] the same in other zones,” a regional administrator, Berhane Gebretsadik, was quoted as saying. But there has been scant response from Addis Ababa.

Official Ethiopian and Eritrean denials that Eritrean forces are operating in Tigray are contradicted by eyewitness accounts. Amid the murk, it seems clear Eritrea’s dictator-president, Isaias Afwerki, has made common cause with Abiy. The two met in Addis Ababa in October, shortly before the war was launched, to discuss the “consolidation of regional cooperation”.

Afwerki is an old enemy who runs a brutally repressive regime. But he shares Abiy’s hatred of the Tigrayan leadership that dominated the government of former prime minister Meles Zenawi during Ethiopia’s 20-year border war with Eritrea. Abiy, an Oromo from Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, made peace with Eritrea in 2018, ousted his Tigrayan rivals, and has been feuding with them ever since.

Further evidence of secret alliances comes from Somalia. The Somali Guardian reported this month that 2,500 Somali recruits were treated as “cannon fodder” after being sent to a military base in Eritrea for training, then deployed in Tigray with Eritrean forces. Dozens are reported to have been killed.

International scrutiny of Abiy’s Tigray war has been largely lacking. An exception is the EU, which has indefinitely suspended €88m in aid to Addis Ababa. “We receive consistent reports of ethnic-targeted violence, killings, looting, rapes, forceful return of refugees and possible war crimes,” Josep Borrell, the EU foreign affairs chief, said.

The UN and EU warnings, coupled with the shocking murder of the internationally respected Seyoum Mesfin, may now bring closer scrutiny. I met Seyoum, a co-founder in 1975 of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, in Addis in 2008. He was a master diplomat. According to Alex de Waal, the Africa specialist, Seyoum was a skilled peacemaker in Rwanda and Sudan who “presided over the rehabilitation of Ethiopia’s international standing” after 1991.

Abiy now risks destroying that standing. “The circumstances of Seyoum’s killing aren’t clear. The Ethiopian government is not a reliable source of information. Eritrea – which may well have carried out the assassinations – is remaining silent. The official report that Seyoum and his colleagues ‘refused to surrender’ is opaque,” De Waal wrote.

He noted that the two other elderly Tigrayans killed alongside Seyoum, aged 71, were Abay Tsehaye, who had just had heart surgery, and Asmelash Woldeselassie, who was blind. This trio hardly posed a physical threat to heavily armed troops.

Abiy seems to have lost control of events. There is anger in Mekelle, where a puppet administration has been installed, about ongoing security issues, including rapes. The threat of rural famine looms large. In the mid-1980s, mass starvation in Ethiopia shocked the world. About 1 million people died. Those horrors were subsequently vanquished by decades of hard work.

To Abiy’s great shame, the spectre of famine now haunts Ethiopia again. The good work of the past is being undone. He should hand back his Nobel peace prize and answer for his actions in Tigray.

The East African war escalates, Ethiopia accuses Sudan of occupying 9 camps

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NetEase| According to Ethiopian sources, Ethiopian ambassador to Sudan Ibtalal Amero accused the Sudanese army of occupying nine camps in Ethiopia. In Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, Amelo told representatives of the UN Truce International Organization and foreign ambassadors: “We are surprised by the Sudanese army’s attack on Ethiopian territory. Since November last year, the Sudanese army has occupied 9 camps in Ethiopia.”

While Ethiopian diplomats called on the Sudanese army to stop cross-border attacks and resolve the border issue with Ethiopia by peaceful means, the head of the Sudanese National Border Commission, General Moaz Ahmed Tango, denied that the Sudanese army “controls Ethiopia”. Territory. He said: “There is no Sudanese army on Ethiopian territory. They are all deployed in Sudan and they know the location of the border.”

At the same time, the Ethiopian army is deploying its “Armor-S1” air defense missile system to the border with Sudan. This happened against the background of the deterioration of relations between the two countries. The Ethiopian armed forces are gathering military forces in the border area with Sudan. The situation between the two countries has deteriorated due to another border dispute. The Sudanese military said that the Ethiopian Air Force of Ethiopia attacked its own targets. It is said that the attack by the Ethiopian government forces resulted in the death of civilians and the death of the Sudanese Defence Force.

The Ethiopian army is deploying reinforcements along the border with Sudan. In this case, Ethiopia will be given a special role for its air defense. Among other air defense missile equipment transferred to the border, the “Armor-S1” air defense missile and Russian radar system shipped from Russia to Ethiopia in 2019 were seen. With the help of Russian air defense missiles, the Ethiopian military intends to defend against air strikes by Sudanese fighters.

“The Ethiopian army organizes heavy weapons near the border with Sudan. Amhara has been pushing their prime minister into war. Internally against Tigray  and externally against Sudan. It seems that the end of the old empire is near!” The Sudanese side believes that the Ethiopian army is opening fire everywhere, but if the Ethiopian government forces go to war with Sudan, it will inevitably face the tragedy of total defeat.

The “Armor-S1” air defense missile performed well during the armed conflicts between Syria and Libya. The targets of the “Armor-S1” air defense missile include modern Turkish inspection and strike integrated drones. Considering the potential enemy of Ethiopia, the Sudanese Air Force uses outdated aircraft and helicopters, mainly Russian MiG-29 fighter jets and Chinese-made “Mountain Eagle” trainer attack aircraft. This modern air defense system is used in areas where conflicts may occur. The emergence of the Sudan Air Force greatly complicates the use of fighters.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 65 – 24 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 23 January)

● It is reported that Eritrean soldiers, controlling many districts in Irob land, Tigray, kill many Tigrayan young men: “We hear Eritrean soldiers told the local elders and parents that, they have orders to kill all male youth older than 15.”

● It is reported that “there is no telephone, no aid, no electricity, no freedom to movement even locally, no access to any external organization of any kind whatsoever in the border areas with Eritrea. Eritrean forces also denied access to the interim government in Tigray and the Ethiopian army staff to go past Adigrat town.” In Adigrat telephone lines were restored on 20/21 January.

● ATV Asena received credible reports that Eritrean troops brutally killed more than 50 civilians in the areas of Irob and Alitena. For example, in an area named Gamda four members of a family (with an age between 18-25) were murdered. Besides, people are also dying from starvation and there is no communication, electricity, water supply and banks services.

● The Irob of Ethiopia and the Saho of Eritrea are Saho speakers. It is also the case that the Saho in Eritrea face marginalisation starting from the fact that the Eritrean Government refuses to admit the existence of any indigenous people in Eritrea (i.e Kunama, Nara, Saho etc..). In fact in Eritrea in the Saho areas the Eritrean Government has appropriated land. This is a physical appropriation through enclosure over and above the Eritrean 1994 Land Proclamation.

● A delegation of the Catholic church is reaching out to the Catholic Bishop in Adigrat, with a delegation, following a letter of the Cardinal on the dire situation. It is reported that the Catholic Cathedral church of Adigrat in Tigray has been damaged and was looted by Eritrean forces.

● The Catholic delegation reported that a “church compound in the diocese was used as a military command center, even when the parish priests and the Daughters of St. Ann were staying there. The priests and the nuns witnessed heavy fighting.” A nearby Orthodox church, mosque and other church buildings sustained damage.

● A List is published with 29 people (25 names) identified as victims of a massacre on the 5th of January 2021 inside Medhane-Alem church in the districts of Gulomakeda, Zalanbessa. The list includes 5 priests and 4 deacons. The church is located in a village called GueTelo. The brutal massacres are allegedly perpetrated by Eritrean soldiers.

● Hundreds of Somali parents whose sons were sent to Eritrea for military training and sent to fight in Tigray secretly, have been camping in the streets of Mogadishu for the last two days. They demand the government to provide information on where they are. Some of the Somali parents of Somali youths reportedly killed in the Tigray conflict met with Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, Security Minister in Galkayo. They want to know whether their children are dead or alive.

● Eritrean forces guard Mekelle airport, in the capital of Tigray, as security. There is a curfew imposed in Mekelle at night from 18.00 hours.

● People in Tigray are dying from starvation, stated Abraha Desta, Prosperity Party’s appointed head of Tigray bureau of social and labour affairs: “While waiting for a comprehensive report, until now 10 in Gulomeked Woreda and 3 children in Adwa have been reported dead from starvation.”

● Somali officials and the Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) under the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) claimed that 189 al-Shabaab fighters are killed in an operation in southern Somalia by Ugandan soldiers, using attack helicopter gunships. Two mounted weapons and motorbikes were also destroyed in separate fire strikes.

● There has been fire detected on 22/1 near Dansha town, Western Tigray region, where there is still active conflict.

Reported situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 23 January)

● Reports of forces backed by Somali regional government attacked Ethiopian federal Police at Mille district, Adaytu Kebelle, Afar region. During the attack, several federal police members were killed and severely wounded.

● The Ethiopian parliament adopts the State of Emergency to the Metekel zone of Benishangul Gumuz region.

● Sudanese State Media (SUNA) quoted Indian Al-Jaili, an official in charge of the Refugee Commission in the Blue Nile State, stating that more than 400 Ethiopian refugees have crossed to the Sudanese borders and reached the Blue Nile State and settled in Yabger, Gezira, Minza, and Al Dim areas. Refugees are displaced due to recent conflict in Benishangul Gumuz, Metekel zone.

● The Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRCO) issues a press release urging the Federal Government and the interim Regional Administration “to devise emergency routes and special mechanisms to provide emergency humanitarian assistance in areas where there is a security threat and to facilitate the provision of services in all areas.”

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 23 January)

● The Louisville’s Ethiopian community in the US calls for President Biden to add pressure to help end the conflict in Tigray.

● Concern raised that the war in Tigray was pre-planned: “Outlines of a plan were revealed when information was leaked about a meeting held by President Isaias just prior to the outbreak of the war.” Eritrean President Isaias “brought together his closest confidantes on the eve of the Tigray war. He said that Eritrea had to accept that it had a small economy and a lengthy Red Sea coast that it cannot patrol on its own. He suggested forming some sort of ‘union’ with Ethiopia, at least in terms of economic co-operation and maritime security.”

● An article on the use of Chinese drones in the war in Tigray from the UAE base in Eritrea, Assab, states: “The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels. After the Ethiopian army has seen the power of the pterosaur drone, it is estimated that it will have the idea of buying it. After all, it can have the ability to attack the ground without spending a lot of money (..). UAVs are very attractive to Ethiopia.” There is concern that the regional expansion of the war in the Horn is leading to increasing supplies of arms and to regional arms trade including, through mercenaries, and that this will escalate the regional conflict.

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Pterosaur Rainbow drones (UAV) are put into battle, attacking Ethiopian rebels at night, killing 500 people on the spot

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UAV Network 2020-11-30 | The Asian-African conflict that was just quelled a while ago finally ended with Azerbaijan’s victory. In this war, drones as a new type of military weapons showed up on the battlefield, and soon won the world’s Concerned, some experts even predict that in future wars, drones will replace armed helicopters and become the new darling on the battlefield. This is true when used in the recent conflict between Ethiopia and the “rebels”.

Satellite data provided by a US space company recently showed that buildings in areas where Ethiopia was engaged in combat with rebels were suspected of being subjected to a wide range of precision-guided strikes, and the rebels who used buildings as shelters suffered a devastating blow. In this attack, at least 500 rebels were wiped out on the spot. The Ethiopian government forces had absolute initiative at the beginning of the battle. Such a precise air strike was definitely not done by the Su-27 of the Ethiopian Air Force. It was the Ethiopian Air Force that used the killer weapon. Judging from the current situation in Ethiopia, Ethiopia and the UAE Air Force stationed in Eritrea both use this killer weapon: it is possible to armed drones. The Ethiopian side uses the Rainbow 4 weapon. The man-machine, and the UAE Air Force, is likely to use the Pterosaur 2 armed drone.

Read More China Has Been Spying On The African Union Headquarters

Both of these drones are excellent products manufactured in China, and have been exported to many countries and regions in the world. The Pterosaur 2 was developed by my country’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. The aerodynamic layout of the Pterosaur 2 and the previous Pterosaur domestic UAV is generally similar, but the size of the Pterosaur 2 is almost a circle larger than the Pterosaur, so Compared with the pterosaur, the descendant pterosaur 2 has a significant improvement over the pterosaur in terms of bomb load and maximum range. In the seven years since it was put on the market, the Pterosaur 2 has been successfully equipped in many countries, and it has achieved normalized applications. It has also performed well in actual combat. The Rainbow 4 UAV is my country’s “Rainbow” series UAV Representative products in China are also exported to the Middle East and Europe.

Read More The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels

And it shines in the struggle against the armed elements. Both types of drones represent the advanced level of Chinese drones. Compared with UAVs produced in the United States, U.S.-made UAVs have always been popular in the international arms market before China’s UAV momentum has risen, but since Chinese UAVs entered the international market many countries were immediately attracted by the ultra-high cost performance of our drones. At the same time, our drones are more durable than American drones, easy to maintain, which has successfully shaken the US drones in the international market. Dominance.

In this conflict, Ethiopia once again used Chinese domestic drones. Obviously, after the conflict in the Tigray region, the use of drones in modern warfare has also been attracted by countries all over the world and started imitation.

‘Egypt working to destabilize Ethiopia, East Africa’ — Ethiopia

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Anadolu Agency | Ethiopian diplomat says Cairo trying to weaken Ethiopia and volatile Horn of Africa region

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — The Egyptian government has been stepping up its long-standing policy of destabilizing and weakening Ethiopia by “providing full support to anti-peace elements” and pitting neighbors against it, according to a top Ethiopian diplomat.

The official, who holds a high position in the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry and asked for anonymity, told Anadolu Agency that “Egypt has intensified its destabilization efforts against Ethiopia and the volatile Horn of Africa region.”

Ethiopia’s reformist administration, led by Nobel Laureate Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who took office in 2018, has faced multiple domestic and external security challenges.

Last November, Ahmed told parliament that since he became premier, Ethiopia had witnessed 114 ethnic and religious conflicts, resulting in the deaths of thousands and displacements of millions of people.

According to him, all those conflicts were manufactured, instigated, and led by Ethiopian armed and unarmed forces bent on thwarting his administration’s political, social, and economic reform agenda in order to trigger a regime change or failed state.

‘Conflict over dam’

The diplomat said that for more than half a century the Egyptian establishment has been providing financial, military, and diplomatic assistance to armed and unarmed Ethiopian forces in its bid to destabilize and weaken Ethiopia and thwart its ambition to utilize the resources of the Nile River.

Ethiopia has realized its Nile River utilization dreams by constructing the $5 billion Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is now 78% complete, he added.

Ethiopia hopes the stalled negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Addis Ababa over the dam will eventually result in a win-win solution for everyone.

However, despite strong opposition from Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia is planning to begin the second phase of filling this August. Early power generation is slated to start this January or February.

“It is in light of this development that Egypt has intensified its covert and overt anti-Ethiopian activities over the past couple of years,” he said.

‘Supporting Gumuz rebels’

The armed Gumuz militia has been unleashing brutal ethnic attacks on ethnic minorities in Ethiopia’s western Benishangul-Gumuz state, where the dam is located. Hundreds of civilians have been massacred and tens of thousands displaced.

According to the Ethiopian government, the sole aim of the Gumuz militia, which has been trying to block the main road leading to the dam, is to trigger a civil war in the region and beyond and eventually delay or thwart the dam’s construction.

“We have credible intelligence that Egypt has been assisting the Gumuz militia,” the diplomat said. “Egyptian security agents have been in touch with the leaders of the rebel group, and they are working on enhancing their support.”

Furthermore, the official said, the Egyptians are also trying to find an operational base for Gumuz as well as the militarily defeated and outlawed Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which they had supported, and other groups.

“It’s worth saying that recently Egypt solicited the government of South Sudan to provide a military base for the groups,” he said. “But the South Sudanese authorities, who highly value our friendly relations, rebuffed the request in no uncertain terms.”

‘Pitting Sudan against Ethiopia’

Sudan and Ethiopia have maintained peaceful relations for decades despite a long-standing border dispute over the agricultural area known as al-Fashaqa, which is adjacent to Ethiopia’s northwest Amhara region.

But last November, while the Ethiopian army was busy battling TPLF forces, the Sudanese army took control of the contested area.

Weeks after the move, Sudanese officials declared that the Sudanese army had managed to regain about 90% of the al-Fashaqa area and demanded that the Ethiopian army vacate the remaining two localities.

The Ethiopian government has sought a diplomatic solution to the dispute and accused the Sudanese army of entering deep into Ethiopian territory, killing and evicting farmers and looting their properties.

Last week, Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dina Mufti accused Sudan of deploying its army further into the contested region and warned that Ethiopia’s “peaceful approach to the dispute has limits.”

Tensions remain high between the two countries, with thousands of heavily armed troops amassed along the disputed areas.

“The Egyptian government is pushing Sudan to engage in a conflict with Ethiopia, in its bid to weaken both countries,” the official said. “The situation will give Egypt more leverage to further infiltrate the Sudanese army and security apparatus.”

He added: “If the standoff turns into a full-blown conflict, Sudan and Ethiopia will endure collateral damage, while Egypt will benefit.”

The problem was caused and exacerbated by some military officials who fell into Egypt’s plot, he added.

‘Adding fuel to Somalia fire’

Cairo has been actively seeking a presence in Somalia, a troubled Horn of Africa country which for decades has struggled to form a viable state and establish security.

“Throughout last year, Egypt tried to befriend the federal government of Somalia by promising military aid,” said the official. But, he added: “The Somali authorities recognized Egypt’s sinister motives and refused the military assistance.”

According to the diplomat, after the Somali federal government refused the offer, Egypt turned to Somaliland, a self-declared “country” that is part of Somalia and has been at loggerheads with the federal government. Last July, Cairo asked officials in Hargeisa, the Somaliland “capital,” to allow them to set up a military base.

“The Egyptians very well know the strained relations between Mogadishu and Hargeisa could turn into a military confrontation at any time,” the diplomat stressed. “They have been trying to add fuel to the Somalia fire.”

He continued: “The misguided self-centric Egyptian policy has been pushing the volatile Horn of Africa to further become a region of endless wars and destructions.”

‘Waning Egyptian influence’

According to the official, Egypt’s policy of trying to gain ground in the Horn of Africa is meant to get back the influence it has lost in the Middle East.

For decades, Egypt positioned itself as a peace broker in the Middle East conflict and managed to garner diplomatic, financial, and military support from the Western world. However, the rise of Gulf countries and other friends of the Arab world helped shrink Egyptian influence in the region.

“Egypt is trying to gain influence in our region. However, the region has demonstrated its will and capability to deal with its own problems and does not need Egypt to meddle in its affairs,” he concluded.

Egypt may attack Ethiopia by force, all because of a dam

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Tencent QQ | Negotiations between the three African countries broke down, Egypt may attack Ethiopia by force, all because of a dam

What is the most important thing in the world? Except for air, it is water. People can survive without eating for seven days, but if they don’t drink water for three days, they may be thirst to death. Wars that erupt because of water resources are not uncommon in human history, and new examples that may occur now are in Africa. A piece of news came out a few days ago that the tripartite negotiations among the three African countries of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have broken down because of Ethiopia’s reconstruction of the dam, and the waves of armed settlement of disputes are rising in the Egyptian media. According to local media reports, a large number of Egyptian military personnel have already begun to prepare, and the high level of the Egyptian military has also announced that the option of resolving disputes by force is not ruled out in the future.

The construction of the dam in Ethiopia, the entire project, has been controversial. This dam built on the Nile River is said to be related to the problems of three countries. This is because as we all know, Africa is already very short of water, and whoever has the water source has the great initiative. Previously, because Egypt itself fell into turmoil during the Arab Spring, and Sudan had no time to take care of it due to the civil war, Ethiopia found an opportunity. The project was formally approved by the late Ethiopian Meles in 2011. Once this hydropower station with a generating capacity of 6 million kilowatts is completed, it will be a huge boost to Ethiopia’s industrial development and can smoothly solve the problem of power shortage in Ethiopia. But doing so will seriously affect the water use problems of the other two countries, Sudan and Egypt.

Sudan and Egypt also know it well. After the domestic situation stabilized, these two countries also put forward their opinions to Ethiopia. After all, the water resources of the Nile River are limited. The three countries are also racking their brains in order to distribute water resources. Everyone wants to win more for themselves. This is understandable, but Ethiopia has not had the last laugh lately. In the beginning, Ethiopia took advantage of the civil strife in the other two countries to build the dam. Now Ethiopia is also experiencing a crisis of civil war. The two neighboring countries have not hesitated to retaliate against Ethiopia, taking advantage of the fire. The issue of Filling Dam has been solved. And now it is catching up with the critical moment of the second impoundment of the dam. For Egypt, it has reached the point of threatening their lifeline.

In this regard, there have been some reports from the Egyptian military, and they will not rule out the use of force. This includes directly attacking the dam itself. But doing so violates the UN’s laws of war. After all, an attack on a hydroelectric power station requires an international court. However, some people in Egypt have suggested that instead of attacking the dam itself, just attacking a few nearby power stations can disable the dam’s function. As for Sudan’s involvement in Ethiopia’s civil war affairs, there are rumors that Sudanese militia guerrillas have been discovered in the Tigray area of ​​Ethiopia, which has made the local chaotic war even more unbearable.

Now that wars have spread around the dam, whether new wars can break out depends entirely on whether the three local countries have the patience to continue the talks. Some people believe that the key lies in whether the three parties can reach an agreement in the next three months. Otherwise, when water resources are scarce in the dry season, the three countries will really fight for water.

The Ethiopian army’s offensive is fierce, and the Russian observers are very emotional: so many advanced Eastern weapons

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NetEase | According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on January 21, the Ethiopian army’s offensive was very fierce. Russian observers were very impressed by the fact that so many advanced Eastern weapons appeared.

Ethiopia has been facing internal and external troubles recently. Since November last year, the domestic situation in Ethiopia has been escalating. The conflict between the previous ruling department and the current one has intensified, and even military means have been used. Before the current leader Abiy came to power, the core faction of the Egyptian side was the Tigray Front, but after Abiy came to power, the front was excluded, and the conflict between the two sides escalated. Dissatisfied with Abi’s management, Tigray even held a local election in September last year. Recently, the military conflicts between the two sides have been escalating. According to the announcement by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, the military has killed many senior Tigray officials. Among them was the former Minister of Foreign Affairs who refused to surrender and was killed in fighting that broke out in the Tigray region. With the expansion of the Ethiopian civil war, the exchange of fire between Ethiopia and the Sudanese army has gradually become fierce, and Sudan took this opportunity to launch an attack on Ethiopia. In response, the Ethiopian army began to strengthen its deployment on the border and began to take action. Not long ago, a large number of elite Ethiopian troops launched an overnight attack and snatched a missile from the Tigray rebels. The battle once attracted many onlookers.

Related sources said that the recent offensive by the Ethiopian army has been very fierce, and even a large number of weapons from the east have been deployed. The Ethiopian army even dispatched S300 air defense missiles and armored S1 air defense missile systems from Russia. Ethiopia also has many of the 56-type submachine guns, 63-type assault rifles, 40 rockets, pterosaur drones, M20 tactical ballistic missiles and A200 long-range rockets produced by our country.

In particular, the M20 tactical ballistic missile and the A200 long-range rocket have become the focus of contention between Ethiopia and the rebels. The M20 ballistic missile is a short-range ballistic missile developed by the Chinese Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. This type of missile adopts an integrated design of vehicle transportation, erection and launch, a double cone aerodynamic shape, and an X-shaped tail rudder. The missile is powered by a single-stage solid propellant rocket engine, satellite guidance and inertial navigation, and full-range guidance, with high guidance accuracy and strong penetration capability. The missile has a length of 7.8 meters, a diameter of 0.75 meters, a take-off weight of 4,010 kilograms, and a warhead weight of 480 kilograms. The rocket model of the A200 system developed by China is A20011, with a length of 7.2 meters, a diameter of 300 mm, and a mass of about 840 kg. The maximum range has been further increased to 200 kilometers. The rocket uses advanced GPS and INS composite guidance, head-body separation technology, and achieves maneuvering flight capabilities. The accuracy of the rocket has been greatly improved. The CEP is less than when the entire blasting warhead equivalent to 150 kg of TNT is used. At 30 meters, the CEP of the warhead of the armor-piercing submunition with 390 rounds of bullets is also less than 45 meters, which has reached the level of mainstream short-range ballistic missiles.

The Russian observers were very emotional. They did not expect Ethiopia, an unheard-of African country, to possess weapons such as high-precision tactical ballistic missiles. Especially Ethiopia has so many advanced Eastern weapons, no wonder it is so violent. And we can see the popularity of these advanced Eastern weapons.

The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels

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UAV Network | Tencent QQ | Ethiopia: the price is too good

According to a report by TASS News Agency on December 3, the UAV deployed by the UAE in Eritrea recently participated in the Ethiopian civil war and achieved “impressive” results. Under the continuous bombing of drones, the Tigray People’s Army kept retreating, and there was no way to deal with it. The rebels could no longer hold it, and began to surrender. On December 1, the Ethiopian government stated that senior officials of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had surrendered to the Ethiopian army. The official who surrendered was Kerya Ibrahim, one of the nine important leaders of the TPLF.

The price of a U.S.-made Predator drone is about US$5 million, and the price of an American Reaper drone is about US$15 million. In contrast, the cost of a Chinese-made pterosaur drone is only about $1 million. But the performance of the Pterosaur UAV is not much different from that of the U.S. Predator. The Pterosaur UAV can also realize the integration of investigation and fighting, and has many actual combat records. The difference between the Pterosaur UAV and the Predator is mainly due to the relatively weak engine performance, which leads to the difference in the maximum ammunition capacity of the Pterosaur and the Predator. But if the price factor is taken into account, this may not be a problem at all. In addition, there are many restrictions on the purchase of U.S. military drones, but there are no more restrictions on the purchase of pterosaur drones. You can buy your own equipment and you can use it whatever you want.

In the civil war in Ethiopia, the pterosaur drones undertook a 24-hour non-stop bombing mission, which destroyed the rebels to life. In fact, the conflict between Ethiopia and Tigray was not a day or two; the government forces did not quickly win the victory over the rebels. The biggest difference was that there was no help from drones. The Ethiopian army has a lot of advanced equipment, including AR-2 rockets, etc., but it cannot fully utilize the advantages of these equipment. Tigray armed with rockets in hand and the government army are very impressive. But when the pterosaur drones joined, the situation changed quickly. Death was hovering over the heads of the rebels for 24 hours, and any heavy weapons that appeared would be quickly attacked. The drones made the rebels feel powerless, and the destruction of the period was terrible.

The Ethiopian military believes that these Pterosaur drones are too valuable. In fact, this batch of UAVs is not Ethiopian, it is likely to be the UAE. The UAE built military bases in the area in 2015 and deployed multiple pterosaur UAVs to fight against Husai. The UAE supports Ethiopia and dispatched drones to fight the rebels. After the Ethiopian army has seen the power of the pterosaur drone, it is believed that it will also have the idea of ​​buying it. After all, it can have the ability to attack the ground without spending a lot of money, which is impossible for manned fighters. UAVs are very attractive to Ethiopia.

In recent years, drones have appeared on the battlefield more and more and have played a very important role. Both the TB-2 UAV and the Pterosaur UAV participated in the battlefield in Libya. The TB-2 UAV successfully destroyed multiple armored S air defense systems. The Pterosaur UAV pressed the GNA army before the Turkish army entered the battle. In the Naka conflict, Azerbaijan used Turkish TB-2 UAVs to destroy several Russian-made Sam-8 air defense systems, S300 air defense systems, and a large number of T72 tanks, which played an important role in winning the war. In the civil war in Ethiopia, drones once again played an important role. Many practical examples show that for small countries, drones may be more useful than manned fighters.

Ethiopias military offensive in Tigray accompanied by atrocities and internal repression

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Source: IPIS Research Briefing | Arms Trade Bulletin November – December 2020

On 4 November 2020 the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) launched a military offensive against the Tigray regional government. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed dubbed it a “law enforcement operation” reportedly “to restore the rule of law and the constitutional order”. The military intervention by the ENDF was a retaliation for an alleged surprise attack by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), in the early morning of November 4, against the ENDF’s Northern Command bases in Tigray. The federal government declared a six-month state of emergency in Tigray, blocking all internet, mobile and landline communications, claiming “illegal and violent activities” were threatening the country’s sovereignty.

Internal Repression and Possible War Crimes

Meanwhile the Ethiopian News Agency announced that the House of People’s Representatives had lifted the immunity of 39 members of the House, including the President of Tigray Regional State. On 7 November police arrested two journalists. One of the editors of the Addis Standard was accused of “attempts to dismantle the constitution through violence,” and “outrage against the constitution”, while journalist Bekalu Alamirew of online Awlo Media was accused of “interviewing Tigray region officials, producing reports undermining the government, producing articles in order to defame the government and undermine its credibility in collaboration with foreign forces, producing articles photographs aimed at inciting inter-communal violence, and inciting a civil war”. Several days later the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reported the arrest of 4 more journalists.

In the days that followed calls for dialogue were dismissed by the Prime Minister. Air strikes continued to hit Tigray. Reports of possible war crimes emerged from the region. One of which took place in Mai Kadra. Two alternative accounts have been presented for the Mai Kadra massacre. One blamed a local militia linked to the TPLF, others blame Amhara militia with assistance from the ENDF. The Ethiopian army and the regional Amhara “Fano” militia have allegedly killed civilians and looted the hospital, banks, businesses, supermarkets and private houses while reportedly taking control of Humera. Tens of thousands Tigrayans fled to Sudan. The Ethiopian army chief of staff alleged that the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), who is Tigrayan and a member of the TPLF, had attempted to obtain weapons for the TPLF. This strongly denied by the WHO Director-General.

An internal U.N. security report seen by Reuters alleged that Ethiopian police visited a World Food Programme office in Amhara region to request a list of ethnic Tigrayan staff. Ethnic profiling of Tigrayans seems to have begun before the recent conflict. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission said it was “gravely concerned” at reports of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans, “most notably manifested in forced leave from work and in stopping people from travelling overseas including on work missions, for medical treatment or studies”. According to William Davison, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, “the ethnic profiling demonstrates that despite the government’s stated intention to target only the TPLF leadership, this conflict is also having a much broader negative impact on Tigrayans outside of Tigray”.

The Tigrayan regional government accused Eritrea of attacking Tigray’s northern border. This was strongly denied by both the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments. But when Hitsats Refugee Camp was captured by troops fighting for the Ethiopian government on 21 November, witnesses claimed that the armed men who entered the camp were Eritrean. The New York Times was told by aid workers that the Eritrean soldiers looted aid materials and vehicles, and burnt crops. Meanwhile multiple witnesses in Humera had told AFP that during the battle for Humera they witnessed mortar bombs coming from the direction of Eritrea. In December the U.S. government cited satellite images, intercepted communications and anecdotal reports from Tigray region as evidence of Eritrean involvement.

“There Will Be No Mercy”

On 22 November the Ethiopian forces had reached Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. Earlier the ENDF warned Mekelle’s 500,000 residents that the army would “encircle” the city and attack it with artillery fire. “There will be no mercy,” a spokesman reportedly said. On 28 November PM Abiy Ahmed announced the fall of Mekelle.

On 8 December the Ethiopian government admitted that federal troops had fired at and detained United Nations workers, proclaiming it did not need a “baby-sitter”. In Geneva U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet reported that her office had received substantiated reports of human rights violations: “We have corroborated information of gross human rights violations and abuses – including indiscriminate attacks against civilians and civilian objects, looting, abductions and sexual violence against women and girls. There are reports of forced recruitment of Tigrayan youth to fight against their own communities”.

Meanwhile the Tigray regional state interim administration, installed on 7 November by the House of Federation of Ethiopia, cautioned residents of Mekelle to hand over their firearms to federal forces until December 15. It was claimed that there would be a door-to-door search and whoever was found with firearms would be held accountable. Eritrean troops in Mariam Dengelat reportedly killed 37 civilians. Ethiopian ENDF soldiers reportedly shot at unarmed civilians, and looting by Amhara militia was reported.

The UNHCR has reported the displacement of millions. Tension along the Sudan-Ethiopia border has risen due to clashes between Sudanese and Ethiopian forces.

Prelude

Ethiopia is a federation of regional ethnic states, and constitutionally large autonomy is granted to the regions. Until 2018 all regional governments were linked directly or indirectly to the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), an alliance of four regional parties [the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) and the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP)], which used to govern Ethiopia. The TPLF was the dominant force until being displaced by an alliance of the two largest Ethiopian ethnicities, the Oromo and the Amhara.

Shortly after becoming Prime Minister in April 2018 Abiy Ahmed had begun to accuse the TPLF of trying to destabilise the country. In the media the TPLF were scapegoated for all the wrongs in the country. Which led to complaints from Tigrayans that they are persecuted in a crackdown on corruption and past abuses. “It has become fashionable to blame TPLF for everything that goes wrong in the country,” said a TPLF spokesperson. In November 2019 three of the four regional parties under direction of Abiy, with the exception of the TPLF, merged into a single national party – the Prosperity Party. The 2020 elections were postponed by the Ethiopian government, due to covid-19. The TPLF saw this as a means for the PM to hold on to power, and declared to hold elections anyway. The Ethiopian government ruled the Tigray government was unlawful and in return Tigray said it no longer recognised Abiy’s administration.

According to the United Nations Comtrade database the major exporters of armaments to Ethiopia in the last decade have been Slovakia, Israel, India, Sudan and Russia.

Exports arms and ammunition to Ethiopia 2010-2019

Country

Value (usd)

Description

India

3.9 million

Various munitions

Israel

4.8 million

Civilian firearms, various munitions

Russia

22.4 million

Various munitions

Slovakia

8.4 million

Armoured vehicles, various munitions

Sudan

4.5 million

Military weapons, various munitions

Source: Comtrade HS 87.10 & HS 93

The United Nations Register of Conventional Arms adds Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Ukraine to that list. In August 2020 trade publication Janes published that Turkish armoured vehicles worth USD20.7 million had been offloaded in Djibouti with likely end destination Ethiopia.

United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, exports to Ethiopia 2010-2019

Year

Exporter

Item

Quantity
2010 Russia Attack Helicopter

8
2012 Ukraine Main battle tank (T-72)

99
2012 Bulgaria Large calibre artillery system (122mm howitzer)

64
2012 Czech Rep. Large calibre artillery system

64
2013 Bulgaria Combat aircraft (MiG-23)

12
2013 Hungary Attack Helicopter (Mi-24)

12
2019 Czech Rep. Small arms

7,742

Peter Danssaert

Further Reading

The secret war in Tigray, Ethiopia Insight, 23 December 2020.

Did Ethiopia’s attack on Tigray violate international laws?, The Conversation, 9 December 2020.

Instant Non-international Armed Conflict? Classifying the situation in Northern Ethiopia under IHL, Armed Groups and International Law, 9 December 2020.

Five reasons why Ethiopia ended up at war, Ethiopia Insight, 1 December 2020.

Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis: Escalating Violence and Mass Displacement Threaten Ethiopian and Regional Security, Just Security, 25 November 2020.

Teflon TPLF, Ethiopia Insight, 12 December 2019.

The Republic of Tigray?, Ethiopia Insight, 28 September 2019.

Is Tigray really a drop in the bucket for Abiy’s administration?, Ethiopia Insight, 17 January 2019.