UAE: The scramble for the Horn of Africa

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MEMO | The United Arab Emirates is waging a war for influence over the Horn of Africa.

Since the 2011 Arab Spring the United Arab Emirates has been taking an active role in a number of hotspots from Egypt, Libya to Yemen. The Gulf nation has spent $26 billion annually on its defence budget since 2016 and this is expected to increase to $37.8 billion by 2025, according to Research and Markets.

A growing security and war industry with military deployments abroad, US generals often refer to the Sheikhdom as ‘Little Sparta’. As of 2020, The UAE has military bases in Eritrea, Djibouti and Somaliland, which further indicates the importance of the Horn of Africa to Abu Dhabi. The region offers excellent access to the Red Sea, the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Aden, all of which are vital to the Emirates’ economic future as a global trading hub. The military bases ensure Abu Dhabi can see off threats to its interests and secure its influence over East Africa at a time when it is expanding its income streams away from the petrodollar.

The 2015 war in Yemen and the 2017 blockade of Qatar have seen Abu Dhabi take a more aggressive role in East Africa.

Countries in the Horn of Africa have by and large welcomed growing ties with the Arab World, but in 2017 following the breaking of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt with Qatar, countries across the world were pushed to take sides.

Somalia

Although the 2017 Gulf Crisis now looks like it is coming to an end, the countries in the Horn of Africa have already paid the price for it. Somalia found itself at the unwelcome end of the dispute.

Like other Horn of Africa countries, the Somali government adopted a neutral stance towards the Qatar dispute. The UAE, however, saw Mogadishu as silently in the pro-Qatar camp and Abu Dhabi was not pleased.

In 2017, as President Mohamed Abdul lahi Farmaajo assumed office, reports circulated that Qatar and Turkey had funded his campaign and further claims of officials appointed to prominent positions within Farmaajo’s administration having ties to Doha and Ankara unnerved Abu Dhabi.

The Somali government alleges the UAE is now actively destabilising the country, accusing it of funding opposition forces. These suspicions intensified after Dubai Ports World, DP World, bypassed the central government of Somalia and signed a deal with the semi-autonomous region of Somaliland to develop and operate Berbera port. DP World even brought in Ethiopian investment and gave Addis Ababa a stake in the port.

Mogadishu declared the deal illegal and tried to block it by taking out a complaint with the Arab League. Somaliland leader, Muse Bihi Abdi, said Farmaajo’s government was declaring war by attempting to block the deal. Under the deal, Somaliland stands to get investments of up to $442 million and a separate agreement with Abu Dhabi to allow the UAE’s military bases in the region could bring in a further $1 billion, according to the International Crisis Group.

Decades of civil war and the presence of extremist groups makes Somalia a very fragile country, fears UAE involvement could harm the country are a cause of constant concern for Mogadishu.

Sudan

In 1989, Omar Al-Bashir, a military commander, launched a coup and seized political power in Sudan. By 1993, he declared himself president and his political party, the National Congress, became the dominant political force. The National Congress is Muslim Brotherhood aligned and as such was generally treated with suspicion by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, in the 2010s, Al-Bashir’s regime began distancing itself from the brotherhood in order to improve its relations with the GCC countries.

Closer relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE had a price. In 2015, Riyadh formed a coalition to intervene militarily in Yemen. In 2011, the Yemeni government led by Ali Abdullah Saleh faced mass street protests known as the ‘Arab Spring’, the pressure would force him to step down in 2012. The power vacuum led to large parts of the country being taken over by the Iranian-backed Houthi group. The Saudi-led coalition aimed to crush the Houthis and declared war on them. Sudan became an important member of the war coalition.

In 2018, a popular uprising took place against Omar Al-Bashir and in April 2019 the military forced him from power. The military then formed a new government with civil opposition groups with the aim of transforming Sudan into a fully-fledged democracy and the UAE moved to minimise the potential damage to its interests caused by the revolution.

However, the fall of Al-Bashir means the UAE’s position in Sudan is not guaranteed and some fear the Emirates could try to subvert Sudan’s democratic transition.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia seems to have benefitted hugely from its partnership with the UAE, as the East African country has emerged as a big investment opportunity.

In February 2020, the UAE agreed to invest $100 million to support micro, medium and small scale projects across the country. Additionally, the UAE has pledged to build an oil pipeline between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which will provide the landlocked nation much needed energy.

Indeed this energy deal is possible after the UAE engineered a peace treaty between Eritrea and Ethiopia in 2018. The peace agreement was held up as an example of the UAE’s prowess. Ethiopia managed to gain these benefits while avoiding the polarising effects of the Qatar blockade.

In November 2020, armed conflict broke out in Ethiopia’s Tigray region between government forces and a powerful regional rebel army. The rebels’ leader openly accused the United Arab Emirates of carrying out a drone strike on Tigray, from its base in Eritrea, at the behest of Addis Ababa. While evidence has yet to emerge of the strike, it does indicate there is some local anxiety about the role Abu Dhabi might be playing in this potentially explosive situation.

Ethiopia could cause issues for the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as another close ally of the Gulf States, Egypt, has expressed anger at Addis Ababa’s dam across the River Nile. The Renaissance Dam built by Ethiopia reduces Nile water levels in Egypt, harming its energy, economic and environmental needs. Negotiations to find a solution keep breaking down and regional tensions are high.

The Horn of Africa is the playground for rising UAE aspirations and is a microcosm of what the UAE aims to replicate across the African continent. Much of this is driven by the decline of US influence globally, new regional alliances and powerhouses are emerging to manage international security. However, the UAE does not exercise total control over East Africa and is still in the early stages of developing its reach and influence. The Horn is full of flashpoints and the UAE could either help stabilise or destabilise the region.

Ethiopia accused of using ethnic profiling to target Tigrayans

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Financial Times | Daughter of former PM says she was prevented from leaving country because of her heritage.

The daughter of a former Ethiopian prime minister has accused the government of preventing her from leaving the country because of her Tigrayan heritage, highlighting the ethnic divisions that continue to split the nation in the wake of brutal fighting between government and Tigray forces in the northern region.

Semhal Meles, the 32-year-old daughter of Meles Zenawi, who was Ethiopia’s prime minister for 17 years until his death in 2012, said she was prevented from boarding a US-bound flight from Addis Ababa on Tuesday despite having a valid passport, visa and ticket, in what she called a “curtailing” of her constitutional rights.

In an emailed statement to journalists, she said officials told her she did not have paperwork clearing her for travel, required by anyone who had been previously arrested. Ms Meles was briefly detained by security forces in December.

“To the best of my knowledge I haven’t been included in any wanted list, no arrest warrant has so far been issued against me nor have I appeared in court,” Ms Meles said. “I was illegally and unlawfully profiled.”

Ms Meles’s claims echo those of other Tigrayans, who say they have been prevented from travelling or dismissed from work since the government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a military attack on Tigray in November last year. The government said the move was a “law enforcement operation” after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front — which effectively ran the country until 2018, when Mr Abiy took power — attacked federal troops.

Hundreds have died in the fighting and thousands of refugees have fled across the border to Sudan. There have been reports, mostly unverifiable because of a news blackout in Tigray, of atrocities by both sides. Forces loyal to the TPLF have been accused of a massacre of 600 civilians, mainly from rival region Amhara, while refugees have reported executions of civilians by pro-government Amhara militia.

Ms Meles accused Addis Ababa of “the weaponisation of rape and hunger, the targeting of dense urban populations for aerial bombardment, wanton destruction of public infrastructure and widespread looting”.

The government said on Thursday that her account was unreliable. “For three decades, the TPLF has laboured to satisfy an unbridled thirst for absolute power and self-enrichment, fanning flames of ethnic division and hatred,” an official said. “Average Ethiopians . . . have paid dearly for this.”

The government has accused the TPLF of being a “criminal clique”, sponsoring terrorism and fomenting ethnic violence. More than 100 party members have been placed on a wanted list, while senior TPLF officials such as Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s former foreign minister, have died in unclear circumstances during the conflict.

Mr Abiy’s government has denied targeting Tigrayans on the basis of ethnicity, saying its dispute is with the TPLF. In September last year, the TPLF went ahead with a regional poll that Addis Ababa said was illegal, after the government postponed national elections amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Before the recent fighting, Mr Meles, who led a guerrilla war that toppled the previous Marxist Derg regime in 1991, was seen as a hero in Tigray. But his legacy remains divisive.

Under his leadership, Ethiopia was widely praised for rapid growth, but the TPLF also oversaw a repressive police state.

The former premier is seen as the father of so-called ethno-nationalism, under which power was devolved to nine ethnically defined regions, an arrangement enshrined in the 1995 constitution. An item of faith for some Ethiopians, the constitution is seen by others as sowing violent divisions.

Ethnic violence, including the burning of churches and mosques, has swelled in Ethiopia since 2016, leading to the internal displacement of 3m people. Mr Abiy has put forward a philosophy of “strength through diversity”, intending to bind Ethiopia under one national identity. But his opponents say this hides an effort to water down regional autonomy and centralise power.

Describing her arrest last year, Ms Meles said 20 federal police officers armed with machine guns arrived at the house in Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, where she was staying. She was taken to a “makeshift prison” for 48 hours, she said, adding that she was denied access to a lawyer and never told the reason for her detention.

One officer threatened to “sever” her head, Ms Meles said, and along with the son of a former TPLF general who had also been arrested, “we were put on display for members of the federal police and army in an attempt to celebrate the capture of the junta’s children”.

“My dual crime, it seems, is being born into a political family with a Tigrayan identity,” she added.

Ms Meles said the Tigray people viewed November’s operation as an attack on their right to self-determination. “Every Tigrayan family paid a price to enshrine these rights within our constitution,” she said. “And no one here is prepared to betray the sacrifices made by their forefathers.”

Biden Administration Faces Mounting Pressure to Act in Ethiopian Conflict

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The Washington Free Bacon | Millions in peril of starvation in Ethiopia’s Tigray region

Hundreds of protesters gathered outside the State Department Thursday to demand the Biden administration take immediate action in Ethiopia to combat a humanitarian crisis that has left thousands dead.

The protesters called on newly confirmed secretary of state Antony Blinken to prioritize the deteriorating situation in Ethiopia where troops from the federal government—as well as troops from neighboring Eritrea and Somalia—have cracked down on the Tigray region. Protesters said immediate aid is necessary to prevent millions of Tigray residents from starving to death, presenting the days-old Biden administration with its first international crisis. Attendee Makea Araya said the crisis has placed millions in danger and displaced millions more.

“We need international actors, we need the Biden administration to take action and allow humanitarian access into the region,” Araya said.

The conflict puts millions of lives at stake and threatens the religious and cultural heritage of the world’s largest religions. Tensions between Tigray, a region in northern Ethiopia, and the federal government came to a head when Tigray’s leading political party refused to join the Ethiopian government’s new coalition in 2019. In early November, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent troops into the region, sparking violent clashes with the region’s militia force. While the crisis has been raging for months, limited information has emerged about its true scale since communications have been cut off in the region and foreign media and human-rights watchdogs have not been able to access the region. Reports of the massacre of religious worshipers in a famous Oriental Orthodox church and violence across the region are mounting, however.

Selome Girma, a protester, told the Washington Free Beacon that 4.5 million people are in dire need of humanitarian aid and are being cut off from the outside world. Tigray has been plagued by several communications blackouts during the months-long conflict, which the government has blamed on cyberattacks. Girma said the United States should lead the way to break the embargo and allow outside observers into Tigray.

“We are asking the United States to please humbly try to get some sort of international investigation of what’s going on in Tigray,” Girma said.

She said religious and cultural history is also in danger of being destroyed in the conflict. The region is home to several major Christian and Islamic historic sites, including the site of the massacre in the Oriental Orthodox church, which is reputed to be the location of the Ark of the Covenant.

The State Department, which did not return a request for comment, has remained vague on how it will approach the crisis. The department has released a statement calling for foreign troops allied with Ethiopia to leave the region immediately. The administration, however, has yet to lay out a strategy in the event that foreign troops remain in the region. The statement also called for “full, safe and unhindered humanitarian access” to the region, but the administration did not elaborate on how it would ensure this access.

Blinken also tweeted about the conflict in November and briefly mentioned the issue during his confirmation hearing, saying that the United States needed to do more in Africa. He called for more humanitarian access and said he was concerned that the violence could destabilize the region.

Ferez Timay, a longtime Washington, D.C., resident who was born in Tigray, said the Biden administration must do more than issue public declarations.

“We want the Biden administration to act soon because as the hours go, the minutes go, it’s the difference between life and death for the people of Tigray,” Timay said. “We want the Biden administration to act right away.”

The White House did not return a request for comment.

France – Official statement on the situation in Ethiopia

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Situation in Tigray

(29 January 2021)

France is extremely concerned by the gravity of the humanitarian and food crisis in Tigray and reiterates its call to the Ethiopian government to facilitate access to the region – including the Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps – by the UN and humanitarian organizations.

Repeated and consistent allegations of serious human rights violations in the Tigray region cannot be ignored. France urges the Ethiopian authorities to facilitate independent investigations and to take the legal actions they had announced.

France applauds the strong commitment on the part of the United Nations as reflected by current missions in Ethiopia led by David Beasley, Executive Director of the World Food Programme, and Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. It hopes these missions will help accelerate the delivery of humanitarian aid to the people of Tigray and the many displaced persons and refugees there. It welcomes EU efforts in Ethiopia and the mission led by Finnish Minister for Foreign Affairs Pekka Haavisto.

France is also concerned by tensions on the border between Ethiopia and Sudan and calls on the two neighboring countries to avoid any military escalation and resolve this dispute through dialogue.

Attack On Civilians In The Benishangul-Gumuz Region

(23 December 2020)

France condemns in the strongest possible terms the attack in the Benishangul-Gumuz region in western Ethiopia that took the lives of more than a hundred civilians, according to the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission.

The perpetrators of these crimes must be prosecuted and brought to justice.

France expresses its solidarity and offers its sincere condolences to the victims’ families. It calls for a return to peaceful coexistence and the rule of law, the only way to break the cycle of violence in Ethiopia.

Meeting between Mr Jean-Yves Le Drian and Mr Demeke Mekonnen, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia

(26 November 2020)

Mr Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, had a meeting today with Mr Demeke Mekonnen, Ethiopia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs.

The Minister took the opportunity presented by the meeting to express our deep concern about the escalation of violence in the Tigray region and the worsening humanitarian situation in Ethiopia and Sudan.

The Minister reiterated our condemnation of the ethnically-motivated violence and our call for measures to be put in place as swiftly as possible to protect civilians.

He supported the United Nations’ calls for humanitarian access to be allowed to the areas affected by the conflict, and expressed France’s support for the African Union chair’s initiative to find a political solution to the crisis.

Situation in the Tigray region

(23 November 2020)

France is concerned by the deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Ethiopia, the Tigray region and Sudan.

It condemns the ethnic violence and calls for the swift institution of measures to protect civilian populations.

France supports the UN’s requests for humanitarian access.

France backs the approach taken by the UN Secretary-General and the initiatives taken by South Africa as Chair of the African Union to resolve the conflict.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 72 – 31 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 30 January)

● Fresh reports from the battlefields in Tigray state that second campaign has started with fighting reported in Daero Hafash, Semema, Mahbere Dego, Feresemay, Nebelet, Hawzen, and Edaga Arbi.

● Reported “that Eritrean presence in the second campaign is very high.” The report reads: “The Eritrean troops are present at all the fronts. They use the following tricks: using the Ethiopian flag; changing uniforms to ENDF; sometimes hiding troops in some areas, etc.”

● Except for Hawzen in Eastern zone, fighting is concentrated in the Central Zone of Tigray.

● Report that Eritrea brought 13 trucks of troops via Edagahamus (Eastern Tigray zone) towards Hawzen and Nebelet areas.

● Sources indicated that Eritrean forces and Ethiopian National Defence Forces mobilized 163 military transport cars (‘orals’) of soldiers via Maytsebri to Endabaguna and then into Central Tigray. ● Video from Shire showing 8 big trucks passing by, loaded with Eritrean troops, posted on 29 January.

● Reported that 20 young people were killed by the allied forces in areas between Adidaero and Adi Kokeb in the North Western part of Tigray.

● A list of names of civilian people killed in Irob dated 28/01, put together by the Irob Advocacy Association, shows 52 names; 50 men and 2 women. The list is “not exhaustive”. According to the association all 52 civilians were “killed in their homes and backyards, during the late December 2020 to early January 2021” campaign. The association states that they “did not take part in combat mission.” The civilians were “peasant farmers” and included teenagers.

● The 52 civilians killed in Irob all fall under the administration of Irobland, from the villages of Gammaa Daa/Alitena, Maagauma, Awo, Aggarale, Waratle, Kafna, Addaga-Abbe, Addaga-Dululuho, Addaga-Sassaleri, Massata-Kimbiro, Assagarwa-Ado Dagga, Garabino, Assagarwa and Maytsiaa. The association is located in Kebeke 3, Adigrat, Tigray.

● Report that Eritrean refugees from Hitsats were forcibly sent back to Eritrea by Eritrean forces and these have “settled around Badme area.” The report states that the refugees have been “without enough acces of food, water and shelter” for “more than 45 days.” Among the refugees are young people, mothers and children, the report states.

● A source reports that the price of 100 kg teff is now 8000 Ethiopian Birr, equivalent to €167.00.

● In an interview with Alex de Waal, Mulugeta Gebrehiwot, advisor to the TPLF and Senior Fellow of the World Peace Foundation, states that Seyoum Mesfin, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, Asmelash Woldeselassie, former Ethiopian parliament chief whip and Abay Tsehaye, Ethiopia’s former minister of Federal Affairs were killed: “They were staying in a village, and they didn’t have an army. They were just in a secluded area. They (..) killed them. It was the EPLF that killed them.” The EPLF is a reference to the Eritrean troops of Eritrean President Esayas.

● A source reports on the sadness of losing Seyoum Mesfin killed in this way: “I am not a member of any political party. We know Seyoum and it is not just about power. I sat with him, shared his life experience.” He adds: “He is our symbol of freedom and perseverance. He is a true leader and hero for many. He has sacrificed his whole lifetime for his people. People are in shock. His death is so painful for all of us.”

● In the interview, Mulugeta Gebrehiwot expresses himself clearly on the expectation that the Eritrean forces will remain in Tigray.

● Mulugeta Gebrehiwot states: “They had a meeting last week, it is some information we got from them, among the senior commanders of the army. There was a request from some of the army commanders on how long they are going to stay in Tigray. The response they gave them was, ‘Once we leave Tigray, PP [Prosperity Party] will not stay for one week in Tigray, and therefore we will leave Tigray to Weyane [TPLF] again and it will revive. And therefore, we have to remain there up until PP can pick it up which might take several months to come back.’ That is the answer that they gave them.”

● TMH reports that according to sources from Adigrat, Eritrean troops dismantled a radar which was installed in Adigrat following the Ethio-Eritrean war (1998-2000) and is transported to Eritrea.

● It is reported that soldiers kill those who saw a crime – including rape, or tried to help; this was news that came with people who travelled from Adwa and Aksum to Mekelle.

● A source reports a meeting with a doctor from Aksum who stated that on the day of the Aksum massacre he himself listed 300 bodies. The reflection is that even more than 750 people might have been killed. The community had understood that the Eritrean soldiers were intending to remove the Ark of the Covenant and the community came to protect it, including women and young people. The source states: “This was a massacre.”

● Report that soldiers take revenge on civilians. In some places the soldiers intimidate the people: “For every battle lost they kill five civilans.” In Mekelle there have been many fights. Everytime during the battles in Mekelle and nearby districts they lost, they had been intimidating the doctors and civilian patients. The soldiers intimidate by announcing that they will kill more people in revenge.”

● Reported from a source in Mekelle that young women working in the eating places, cafeterias, restaurants and bars are vulnerable to abuse, due to the curfew at 18:00 a.m., leaving the places open only for the soldiers. The girls have no one to protect them.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 30 January)

● Qatar demands an investigation regarding the Somali men who had been offered jobs as security men in Qatar but were tricked and sent for training to Eritrea, from where they were sent to fight alongside Eritrean troops in the war in Tigray, Ethiopia.

● France says in a statement that it is “extremely concerned by the gravity of the humanitarian and food crisis in Tigray and reiterates its call to the Ethiopian government to facilitate access to the region – including the Hitsats and Shimelba refugee camps – by the UN and humanitarian organizations.”

● The statement from France reads that “Repeated and consistent allegations of serious human rights violations in the Tigray region cannot be ignored. France urges the Ethiopian authorities to facilitate independent investigations and to take the legal actions they had announced.”

● The French statement applauds the UN action and welcomes the EU efforts.

● Medecins sans Frontières reports that “around 80 or 90 percent of the health centers that we visited between Mekele and Axum were not functional”. The centers had no staff and had suffered robberies.

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

The People of Irob Mourns The Massacre Of Their Loved Ones – Irob Advocacy Group

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“It is with great sorrow & grief that we share here the incomplete list of Irob civilians killed by Eritrean soldiers during the mass killing campaign in about just 2 weeks of late December 2020 to early January 2021,” the Irob Advocacy Association said in a Tweet on Saturday.

“These civilians [see list of victims here & here] did not take part in combat mission. They were simply civilian farmers – primarily young male adults & teenagers,” the Association said, adding “We cry for justice!”

On January 24, 2001, the Belgian based Europe External Programme with Africa (EEPA) reported that Eritrean soldiers, controlling many districts in Irob land, killed many Tigrayan young men: “We hear Eritrean soldiers told the local elders and parents that, they have orders to kill all male youth older than 15.”

Eritrean soldiers were also seen distributing Eritrean I.D. cards to citizens in Irob, Tigray. Many people had to fled to the mountains and hide in caves, according to EEPA.

The Irob people are an ethnic minority group who are situated in the traditional Agamä Awrajja, Tigray Region, bordered with Afar region of Ethiopia to the East and  Saho of Eritrea to the North. They speak the Saho language, the same language spoken by the Saho people of Eritrea.

The Saho people of Eritrea are indigenous people in Eritrea marginalized by the Eritrean Geovernment who refuses to admit the existence of any indigenous people.

The Irob people were most affected by the outbreak of Ethiopian-Eritrean war of 1998-2000. Next to Badime, Irob became the prime target of Eritrean invasion and the consequent destructive high-tech warfare.

Since Eritrea joined the military offensive against the Tigray regional government launched by the unelected Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, Eritrean forces have been accused of summary execution, rape, looting and burning private and public properties, including refugee camps.

U.S. State Department officials told The Associated Press that they have directly “pressed senior levels” of Eritrea’s government to immediately withdraw from the embattled region. There were no details on how officials in Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive countries, responded to the Biden administration demand.

The Ethiopia Government, however, has privately told Biden administration that the embattled Tigray region has “returned to normalcy” to which witnesses strongly disagree.

Egypt: Countries must reach binding deal on Nile dam

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MEMO | Amid regional tension over the project, countries along the Nile must reach a legally binding agreement on the filling and operations of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD), or Hidase Dam, according to Egypt’s president, Anadolu Agency reports.

Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi made the remarks late Saturday during an official visit to South Sudan’s capital Juba to meet with his South Sudanese counterpart Salva Kiir, according to Egyptian media.

During their meeting, the leaders discussed the issue of strengthening cooperation between the two countries in the field of water resources and irrigation.

They also discussed joint efforts to maximise the utilisation of Nile River resources.

Underlining that that the Nile is the lifeblood of the peoples in the region, Sisi said the river must be a source of cooperation and development for regional countries.

Ethiopia began construction of the over $5 billion hydroelectric dam project in 2011, triggering a drawn-out diplomatic battle with Egypt, which had enjoyed thousands of years of hegemony on the Nile.

Though Ethiopia contributes 85% of the Nile’s waters, a 1959 agreement between Sudan and Egypt gave 55.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) to Egypt and 18.5 bcm annually to Sudan and nothing to Ethiopia.

Foreign meddling as a source of state fragility in Ethiopia

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MEMO Opinion | State fragility is a multidimensional concept that is often characterized by deficiencies in one or more areas of the core functions of the state: legitimacy, authority (competing claimants to power), and capacity (weak capacity to provide basic government functions). State fragility poses a serious problem for many developing countries as it leads to human flight and economic decline. Since 2015, for example, only five countries (Afghanistan, Somalia, S. Sudan, and Syria) have generated over 60 per cent of the 15 million refugees.

In many cases, state fragility is not just due to domestic political tensions, but a result of foreign intrusion into the affairs of countries. External intervention includes, but is not limited to, external support for factions opposed to the government, covert operations by foreign forces to destabilize the government, as well as foreign governments’ influence on outside actors such as multilateral agencies to suspend budget support, foreign aid, and other funding.

Negotiations have been underway between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan to reach a fair and balanced agreement that preserves the water rights of all three countries. This includes agreement on mechanisms for resolving disputes and ways to coordinate and exchange information regarding the operation of water dams in each country. The parties need to depoliticize their argument and use reliable science-based solutions that do not disadvantage the interests of any party.

While these negotiations are underway, Egypt has resorted to clandestine measures to achieve its narrow objectives. One is to destabilize the Ethiopian regime, for example, by providing financial and military support to political opponents, arming and training militants from Benishangul-Gumuz (the area where the dam is located) to carry out incidences of mass violence to create overall instability in the region. There is also increasing evidence that Egypt has also encouraged the Sudanese government’s takeover of several Ethiopian towns on the border (they made a statement that they support Sudan in its border conflict with Ethiopia). This is all because Ethiopia decided to exercise its legal right to build a dam within its domestic borders. This right is consistent with domestic and international law. Even though 85 per cent of Nile river water originates in Ethiopia, nearly all consumption and use occur downstream in Egypt and Sudan.

In many cases, Egypt has been breaking off the negotiations creating abnormal delays, disregarding the agreed procedures, and refusing to consider adverse proposals or interests. These are actions that amount to breaches of good faith and most likely abuse of the rights of states.

International law obliges states to negotiate disputes in good faith that arise in connection with the use and protection of shared natural resources. The essential nature of the obligation is for the parties to make efforts to strive towards an agreement that reconciles their competing rights of use. Good faith negotiations also include not advancing wholly self-serving legal arguments that undermine the rights of other parties, and not resorting to extra-legal measures to advance your goals.

In negotiations, it is essential to realize that successful negotiation is a joint effort. The use of direct or indirect pressure on other parties will harden positions and derail any efforts to reach an agreement.

Egyptian meddling in Ethiopia’s internal affairs to achieve its narrow goals on the dam is likely to have serious ramifications beyond the existing dispute at hand. Firstly, beyond its potential benefit, the dam issue is personal for most Ethiopians. Millions of citizens contributed out of their meager earnings to build the dam. Any effort by other nations that undermines the completion and use of the dam would be treated as an act of war by most people.

Secondly, Egypt and Ethiopia are important countries in the region with centuries of history and civilization. Their actions set a precedent in the region. It sends the message that if you don’t get your way through negotiation, you can bully your negotiating partner into submission.

Thirdly, such meddling will not achieve its objectives. Given Ethiopia’s anti-colonial past and resistance to foreign aggression, it is likely to harden the country’s position on the dam. This may be the most accommodating Ethiopian government that is willing to resolve disputes through negotiation. Future governments are likely to take the hardline position and resist any future negotiations that compromise their autonomy on the dam.

Fourthly, in spite of their long history and civilization, both countries face severe development challenges: high levels of poverty, income inequality, poor governance, and political instability. They are far behind in extending to their citizens the opportunities to fulfil their aspirations for a better life. The Fund for Peace, which prepares the State Fragility Index for 178 countries, ranks Egypt as the 35th most fragile state behind Angola and Mauritania (Ethiopia is ranked 21st) for 2020. The evaluation is based on social cohesion, economic indicators (economic decline, income inequality, human flight, and brain drain), political indicators (human rights, rule of law, state legitimacy, and public services), and social factors such as demographic pressures, refugees and internally-displaced people and external intervention. Such foreign meddling is not without cost for Egypt, which desperately needs these resources to build schools, infrastructure, and healthcare for its people.

Political observers of the Middle East suggest that such foreign meddling is intended to divert attention away from the critical issues facing the country such as poor governance, democracy, and human rights, and help it to gain some political legitimacy by appearing as a defender of the national interest.

Finally, such actions poison the well of Egypt-Ethiopia relations and create a sense of hostility between the two peoples who have lived peacefully for generations. Most people think that these actions do not reflect the will of the Egyptian people and are solely an act of a rogue regime that is out of touch.

It is time to stop foreign meddling and get back to work to bring about a mutually satisfactory solution by way of compromise, even if it means the relinquishment of strongly held positions and a willingness to meet the other side partway. Any attempt to destabilize your negotiating partner to achieve your goals, or insist upon the complete capitulation of your partner, is bad policy and will not work.

Ethiopia accuses Sudan of occupying its lands, fighting by proxy for third party

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MEMO | The border area has witnessed tension between Ethiopia and Sudan that is still escalating-Getty

Ethiopia has accused its neighbour Sudan on Friday of occupying part of its territory and fighting by proxy for a “third party”.

This was reported by the Ethiopian News Agency (ENA), quoting a member of the Ethio-Sudan Joint Boundary Commission Wuhib Muluneh.

According to Muluneh, Ethiopia: “Feels that reaching a bilateral decision is the best way out of the crisis rather than inviting a third party to interfere.” In an interview with ENA, he stressed: “There are doubts that a third party was behind the Sudanese move, which refers to a proxy war.”

Muluneh added that in light of the long-standing relations between the two countries, the dispute must be resolved peacefully, confirming that reactivating the border mechanisms is the only option to end the recent border crisis between Ethiopia and Sudan.

Muluneh asserted that before the start of any negotiations, the Sudanese army must evacuate the area “occupied” earlier by its troops who attempted to displace Ethiopian farmers, as he put it.

Sudan has not yet commented on the Ethiopian accusations.

Relations between Sudan and Ethiopia have been undergoing escalating tensions for weeks, following the outbreak of armed attacks on the borders of the two countries. Khartoum asserts that the attacks were carried out by Ethiopian militias backed by army forces on Sudanese territory, while Addis Ababa denies the accusations.

Ethiopia says Tigray back to ‘normalcy;’ witnesses disagree.

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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP | Cara Anna) — Ethiopia’s government has privately told Biden administration staffers its embattled Tigray region has “returned to normalcy,” but new witness accounts describe terrified Tigray residents hiding in bullet-marked homes and a vast rural area where effects of the fighting and food shortages are yet unknown.

The conflict that began in November between Ethiopian forces and those of the Tigray region who dominated the government for nearly three decades continues largely in shadow. Some communications links are severed, residents are scared to give details by phone and almost all journalists are blocked. Thousands of people have died.

Ethiopia’s deputy prime minister, Demeke Mekonnen, and colleagues briefed a private gathering hosted by the Atlantic Council think tank on Friday. They said nearly 1.5 million people in Tigray have been reached with humanitarian aid, and they expressed unease at “false and politically motivated allegations” of mistreatment of refugees from neighboring Eritrea, the state-affiliated Fana Broadcasting Corporate reported. It said Biden administration staffers attended the meeting.

The refugees have been targeted by soldiers from Eritrea, who are fighting alongside Ethiopian troops against the Tigray forces. The Biden administration has pressed Eritrea to “immediately” withdraw them, citing credible accounts of looting, sexual assault and other abuses.

Despite Ethiopia’s latest assertions, its recently appointed administrators in Tigray have estimated that more than 4.5 million people, or close to the region’s entire population, need emergency food aid and some people have begun dying of starvation. That’s according to leaked documents from a crisis meeting of government and aid workers in early January.

And a new account by a Doctors Without Borders emergency coordinator in Tigray, Albert Vinas, says “we are very concerned about what may be happening in rural areas,” with many places inaccessible because of fighting or difficulties in obtaining permission.

“But we know, because community elders and traditional authorities have told us, that the situation in these places is very bad,” he said in the account posted online Friday.

He described Tigray residents handing his colleagues pieces of paper with phone numbers and asking for help in reaching their families, whom they hadn’t heard from for weeks.

“We saw a population locked in their homes and living in great fear,” he wrote after visiting the city of Adigrat and the towns of Axum and Adwa starting in late December.

In Adigrat, one of Tigray’s largest cities, “the situation was very tense and its hospital was in a terrible condition,” Vinas added, with “no food, no water and no money. Some patients who had been admitted with traumatic injuries were malnourished.” One woman had been in labor for a week.

Beyond hospitals, up to 90% of health centers between the Tigray capital, Mekele, and Axum to the north toward Eritrea were not functioning, he said. “There is a large population suffering, surely with fatal consequences. … There have been no vaccinations in almost three months, so we fear there will be epidemics soon.”

In a separate account posted by the World Peace Foundation on Friday, former senior Ethiopian official Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe in a phone interview from rural Tigray told director Alex de Waal that “hunger among peasantry is crippling” in areas bordering Eritrea after Eritrean forces burned or looted crops just before the harvest.

“Soon, we might see a massive humanitarian crisis,” Mulugeta said.

Eritrean officials have not responded to questions nor confirmed their soldiers’ involvement, and Ethiopia has denied their presence despite witness accounts.

The food situation in Tigray was already “extremely bad” before the fighting began because of a locust outbreak and the COVID-19 pandemic, the Oxfam country director in Ethiopia, Gezahegn Kebede Gebrehana, has told The Associated Press.

“When the fighting took place, a lot of people fled into the bush. But when they came back, most found their houses destroyed or all belongings looted,” he said after an assessment in southern Tigray, by some accounts the most accessible part of the region. “Food is a very, very prominent necessity, from what we saw.”

International pressure continues on Ethiopia to allow unrestricted humanitarian access to Tigray, now a complicated patchwork of local authorities, but Gezahegn warned against suspending aid to the government as the European Union recently did.

“The donor community might think they will push the Ethiopian government, but the Ethiopian government will never surrender,” he said. He acknowledged the “good intentions” but said “it’s the people who suffer.”