Striden om Nilen – spillet bak spenninga mellom Etiopia og Sudan

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Proletären | Afrikas største damkonstruksjon kaster sine skygge over grensekonfliktene mellom Etiopia og Sudan, som risikerer å føre til vannkrig i det nordøstlige Afrika, skriver Marcus Jönsson for den svenske avisa Proletären.

De senaste veckorna har flera incidenter på gränsen mellan Etiopien och Sudan ökat spänningarna i regionen betydligt, till den punkt att det finns risk för att ett krig bryter ut mellan de båda länderna. I söndags skedde den senaste skottväxlingen mellan etiopiska och sudanesiska trupper, dock utan några bekräftade döda.

Den 11 januari dödades fem kvinnor och ett barn av regeringsstödd etiopisk milis, enligt Sudans regerande övergångsråd (Transitional Sovereign Council, TSC).

Dådet skedde i den omstridda gränsregionen al-Fashqa, på den sudanesiska sidan gränsen, men där etiopiska bönder i skydd av miliser odlat mark i åratal, vilket Sudans förre president Omar al-Bashirs styre tolererade.

Men de senaste månaderna har temperaturen höjts rejält i dispyten om gränsområdet, och på det förra årets sista dag tog sudanesisk militär kontroll över en del av al-Fahsqa. Sudan anklagar den etiopiska regeringen för att stödja miliserna som tidigare kontrollerade området, vilket regeringen i Etiopiens huvudstad Addis Abeba tillbakavisar.

Presidenten för övergångsrådet, som styr Sudan sedan störtandet av al-Bashir 2019, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, är också befälhavare för den sudanesiska militären. Dagen efter attacken på kvinnorna besökte al-Burhan delstaten al-Qadarif, där al-Fashqa ligger, och talade till soldaterna som stationerats vid gränsen.

– Hur länge måste vi ha tålamod? Allt har en gräns och den här situationen har överskridit sin. Det här är vårt land och vi är alla villiga att dö för det här landet, till sista man, sa al-Burhan i en video på TSC:s Facebooksida.

Regeringen i Addis Abeba, med premiärminister Abiy Ahmed i spetsen, anklagar å sin sida övergångsrådet i Sudans huvudstad Khartoum för att inte agera självständigt. I ett tal i slutet av december sa Abiy Ahmed att det är andra aktörer som ligger bakom Sudans truppförflyttningar till gränsen.

Utan att säga det rakt ut syftade han på Egypten – som i november höll militära flygövningar med Sudan och som i december uttalade sitt fulla stöd till Sudan efter en etiopisk attack vid gränsen i al-Qadarif.

Anledningen är att Egypten är låst i en hård diplomatisk strid med Etiopien om den enorma damm som sedan tio år tillbaka byggs i landet, bara två mil från gränsen mot Sudan. Dammen, med det ståtliga namnet Stora etiopiska renässansdammen (GERD, efter sina initialer på engelska), byggs på Blå Nilen som rinner från Tanasjön i Etiopien, och vattenkraftanläggningen kommer att bli Afrikas största.

Blå Nilen står för mer än 80 procent av vattenflödet i Nilen. Den löper från Etiopien genom Sudan, flyter samman med Vita Nilen i Khartoum och rinner ut i Medelhavet vid egyptiska Alexandria.

Egypten, vars vattentillförsel till 90 procent kommer från Nilen, ser dammen som ett existentiellt hot, fruktar att den kommer att strypa landets vattenförsörjning och har under hela bygget motsatt sig att Etiopien ska kunna kontrollera vattenflödet i floden.

Sudan delar i viss mån Egyptens oro, men har tidigare under bygget haft större förståelse för Etiopiens position. Sudan vill också ta del av elektriciteten som dammen kommer generera, och som både Sudans och Etiopiens miljoner fattiga behöver. I Sudan har omkring 60 procent av de närmare 45 miljoner invånarna tillgång till el, i Etiopien mindre än 45 procent av de cirka 115 miljoner invånarna, enligt Världsbanken.

I slutet av oktober förra året fick USA:s dåvarande president Donald Trump Sudan att upprätta diplomatiska relationer med Israel, i utbyte mot att USA tog bort Sudan från listan över länder som sponsrar terrorism. I samband med det uttalade sig Trump – nära allierad med Egyptens president Sisi – om Egyptens syn på bygget.

– De kommer spränga dammen till slut. Jag sa det högt och tydligt, de kommer att spränga den där dammen. Och de måste göra någonting, sa Donald Trump.

Då hade USA en månad tidigare dragit in biståndspengar till Etiopien för att bygget inte stoppats.

Ytterligare ett år tillbaka i tiden, i september 2019, bad Sisi Trump om hjälp med att få till stånd en överenskommelse mellan länderna. Trumps finansminister Steven Mnuchin förhandlade fram ett avtal mellan Egypten, Sudan, Etiopien och Världsbanken, men som Etiopien aldrig undertecknade.

I somras fyllde Etiopien GERD:s nedersta del för första gången. Förhandlingarna om den två kilometer långa och 145 meter höga dammen har sedan dess förts i Afrikanska Unionens regi, men strandade återigen för två veckor sedan. Och förra veckan sa USA:s tillträdande utrikesminister Antony Blinken att situationen på gränsen mellan Sudan och Etiopien riskerar att ”koka över”.

USA är inte den enda stormakten med politiska och ekonomiska intressen i regionen. Kina investerar stort i alla de tre berörda länderna, inom ramen för jätteprojektet Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, ”den nya sidenvägen”). Kina är Etiopiens största handelspartner och beräknas ha bidragit med mer än en tredjedel av kostnaderna för dammbygget, som totalt uppgår till 5 miljarder dollar.

Elektriciteten från dammen ska också hjälpa till att driva den kinesiskbyggda järnväg som går från Addis Abeba till det lilla kustlandet Djibouti i norr, vars huvudstad och hamn har ett mycket strategiskt läge mellan Röda havet och Adenviken.

Även Suezkanalen i Egypten, mellan Röda havet och Medelhavet, är ett viktigt nav för Kinas BRI-planer. Kinas ambassadör i Addis Abeba har också uttryckt att Kina hoppas att meningsskiljaktigheterna mellan Etiopien och Egypten ska lösas genom dialog och fredliga förhandlingar.

Sammanstötningarna mellan Etiopien och Sudan kommer när det redan finns en växande humanitär kris i området, två månader efter att etiopiska regeringsstyrkor intog regionen Tigrays huvudstad Mekelle.

Den etiopiska centralregeringens krig mot TPLF (Tigreanska folkets befrielsefront) har lett till att fler än två miljoner människor i Tigray tvingats lämna sina hem. Enligt FN:s flyktingorgan UNHCR har fler än 60.000 tigreanska flyktingar tagit sig över gränsen till Sudan från Tigray, längst uppe i Etiopiens nordvästra hörn.

I måndags rapporterade FN:s kontor för samordning av humanitär hjälp, UNOCHA, att de har börjat flytta de tigreanska flyktingar som tagit sig till Sudan, bort från områdena vid gränsen där stridigheter skett. Samtidigt riskerar hundratusentals människor som fortfarande befinner sig inne i Tigray att svälta, enligt FN och en rad humanitära organisationer, eftersom det mesta av regionen fortfarande är avskuret från omvärlden sedan november.

Etiopiens premiärminister Abiy Ahmed fick Nobels fredspris 2019 för fredsavtalet mellan Etiopien och Eritrea. Många tigreaner som gått över gränsen till Sudan har vittnat om att soldater från Eritrea i norr också befinner sig i Tigray, där tigreanerna och TPLF är fast mellan tre antagonister: etiopiska regeringsstyrkor, eritreanska soldater och amhariska miliser. Amhara är regionen söder om Tigray i Etiopen.

Det kommer dessutom uppgifter om att även somaliska soldater, som skickats till Eritrea för militär träning, ska ha använts i Tigray.

Det finns också mängder av vittnesmål från flyktingar om etniskt motiverat våld mot tigreaner, och FN:s särskilda representant i frågor som rör sexuellt våld i konflikt, Pramila Patten, varnade förra veckan för ”seriösa anklagelser om sexuellt våld” i Tigray, inklusive rapporter om individer som under vapenhot tvingats våldta familjemedlemmar.

Enligt ett uttalande från Abiy Ahmeds regering i december dödades inga civila under offensiven i Tigray över huvud taget, men det handlar snarare om tusentals döda – inklusive amhariska migrantarbetare som mördades i en av flera massakrer som begicks i Tigray i november.

Innan Abiy Ahmed blev premiärminister 2018 styrde TPLF Etiopien i nästan tre decennier, med en federal modell baserad på etnisk tillhörighet. Abiy Ahmed förespråkar en mycket starkare centralstat och anklagas av TPLF för att ha rensat statsapparaten på tigreaner.

Med våldsamheter inte bara i Tigray och Amhara, utan även i regionen Benishangul-Gumuz söder om Amhara, där flera hundra civila dödats i olika massakrer den senaste månaden, behöver inte fredspristagaren Abiy Ahmed ytterligare ett krig – och förhoppningsvis lugnar situationen vid gränsen ner sig om länderna lyckas nå ett avtal om hur högt Etiopien får fylla sin damm.

Kina, som definitivt inte har något intresse av ett nytt krig i regionen, borde också kunna använda sitt inflytande för att nå en diplomatisk lösning mellan Etiopien, Sudan och Egypten.

Om inte det lyckas, finns det risk för att en gnista för många vid gränsen startar det första vattenkriget i klimatkrisens tid.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 71 – 30 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 29 January)

● A source from Mekelle, Tigray, speaks of the difficulty of speaking about what is happening: “Our problem is that the value of life has become meaningless. When a single person dies, we feel all the pain. For some, it has become a matter of statistics. But here, we don’t know how to mourn and how to speak to a family where they have lost eight relatives.”

● The source describes a very depressing situation in the town due to the complete information shut-down. He has realised that “information is as important as food and water.” He states: “we don’t know who is creating information and it adds to demoralisation and intimidation”.

● The source lives near the Mekelle Ayder referral hospital. He says: I could see the pain in the eyes of the ENDF soldiers who used Ayder hospital as a camp.” Most of them are 18-19 years old. They have no hope. They know they may die soon. It is devastating for all the families of these young people.”

● The source explains that the Ethiopian federal troops were in Ayder hospital in the first week after ENDF had captured Mekelle. I went and saw around 500 ENDF soldiers with machine guns. I thought they came to protect us. But when Eritrean soldiers came they did nothing to protect the property.

● The source states: “Eritrean soldiers came with vehicles to take goods.” The soldiers were few. The source says that the elders asked the ENDF colonel at the hospital campus whether they would prohibit the looting and that they would follow orders from ENDF. The ENDF colonel said they had no mandate to tell Eritrean soldiers what to do. The elders then asked ENDF to give weapons to defend the hospital which is a public property of the Ethiopian government.”

● The source states ENDF could not help to protect the institution from the Ethiopian government. The information that the Eritrean soldiers were on their way to Ayder referral hospital went around very fast through the megaphone system. The elders instructed the community to block the road. “My house is ten minutes away from there and everything was blocked.” He concludes: the community protected Ayder hospital from major looting. They did the same for the Telecom (TV and satellites).

● “When I grew up, my mother never smiled”, says the source. “Now I have had the revelation to understand why. The experiences of war have made her afraid. A lot of pain may have taught her sadness. Now I have a young boy of three. I find that he can differentiate between a gunshot and a bomb and airstrike. We are passing this experience of war through the generations.”

● The source from Mekelle states: “The pain we must see is the bigger picture of all our Eritrean and Ethiopian brothers. The problem is a collective one of the whole region.”

● Eritrean I.D. cards have been distributed to citizens in Irob, Tigray, Ethiopia, confirms a source by phone from Sebe’a in Irob. He confirms that everything has been stolen. People only wear the clothes they wear. Many people have fled to the mountains and are hiding in caves. There is no food, no money. Two grandchildren of the source have been killed.

● Another source says that the Eritrean troops are looting blankets of farmers in rural areas around Tigray. When they do this they say: “you have taken us 20 years back in development. In return, we will take you (Tigrayans) 50 yrs back. You will know in the future that you will never be richer than Eritrea.” The source was in a village near Rama. He left for Addis and spoke by phone from there.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 29 January)

● A group of “Concerned Eritreans Regarding the Civil War in Ethiopia”, signed by Professor Emeritus Bereket Habte Selassie issues a statement. Dr. Selassie has held high-profile positions within Ethiopia, serving as Attorney General, Associate Justice of Ethiopia’s Supreme Court, Vice Minister of Interior, and Mayor of Harar. He was the Chairman of the Constitutional Commission in Eritrea after its independence in 1993 and the principal author of Eritrea’s constitution, which never came into effect.

● The group of Concerned Eritreans express their “grief over the Ethiopian civil war that on Nov. 4th started” and condemns “in the strongest possible terms the wanton killings, displacement, famine and distress that the Ethiopian Federal Government and its partners have since inflicted upon the civilian population of Tigray.” The Group states that “The Eritrean military is actively involved in the war on orders of President Isaias Afwerki and his close circle.”

● The Group expresses its duty “as citizens and as human beings to take a firm stand against role of the Eritrean military in subjecting the people of Tigray and Eritrean refugees in Tigray to conditions that led to killings, pillaging, sexual violence, destruction of heritage sites displacement.”

● The Groups strongly condemns “President Isaias Afwerki and his close circle for coercing Eritreans into causing death and destruction for the sole purpose of exacting personal vengeance.”

● The Group notes: President Isaias aims “to sow generational feud and hatred between Eritreans and their Tigrayan neighbors. We can only overcome such seeds of hatred with love, compassion and remorse, and hence we express our respect for and solidarity with the people of Tigray.”

● The Group states that “Soldiers of the Eritrean Defense Forces (irrespective of their ethnic roots) who have been designated to waste in this debacle are themselves victims of the repressive regime, and their commanders and the regime in Asmara bear primary responsibility for the violations that they endure and that they inflict. The United States has said that it has communicated directly to senior Eritrean officials that Eritrean soldiers must withdraw immediately from Tigray.”

● The Group strongly condemns “the hypocrisy of enforcing the strictest lockdown since April 2020 while sending citizens to battle. While most governments are working hard to combat the spread of COVID-19, President Isaias Afwerki has created a conducive environment for large-scale deaths by exposing Eritrean soldiers to mass-spread of the virus and battlefield deaths.”

● The Group calls “for the immediate and unconditional withdrawals of the Eritrean military from Tigray and Ethiopian forces from Eritrean territories. We urge the world community and international and regional organizations to pressure the Ethiopian federal government and President Isaias and his associates to end the war.”

● The Group calls “upon the international community to pressure the Ethiopian federal government to grant humanitarian access to Tigrayans and Eritrean refugees in the region, who are in dire need due to war-caused hunger and shortage of other basic necessities.”

● The Group calls upon the United Nations, U.N. Security Council, the African Union, the European Union, President Joe Biden’s administration and other partner countries to appoint an impartial body to investigate and bring the perpetrators to justice. The atrocities that are being committed in Tigray amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity and violate many international treaties and conventions that Eritrea and Ethiopia have signed.”

● The US has ‘directly’ pressured Eritrea to withdraw forces from Tigray.

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

Violence in Tigray causes untold suffering

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MSF | Relief Web | Since early November, a military escalation in the Tigray region of Ethiopia has caused widespread violence and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Albert Viñas, emergency coordinator for Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), provided the following account today:

Almost three months after the start of the conflict, I am struck by how difficult it has been—and continues to be—to access a community with such acute needs in such a densely populated area. Considering the means and capacity of international organizations and the UN, the fact that this is happening is a failure of the humanitarian world.

Supporting hospitals affected by the violence

After several attempts, I finally entered the capital of Tigray, Mekele, with the first MSF team on December 16, more than a month after the violence started. The city was quiet. There was electricity, but no basic supplies. The local hospital was running at 30 to 40 percent of its capacity, with very little medication [supplies]. Most significantly, there were almost no patients, which is always a very bad sign. We evaluated the hospital, with the idea of referring patients there as soon as possible from Adigrat, 120 kilometers to the north.

We arrived in Adigrat, the second most populous city in Tigray, on December 19. The situation was very tense, and the hospital was in terrible condition. Most of the health staff had left, and there were hardly any medicines. There was no food, no water, and no money. Some patients who had been admitted with traumatic injuries were malnourished.

We supplied the hospital with medicines and bought an emergency supply of food from the markets that were still open. Together with the remaining hospital staff, we cleaned the building and organized the collection of waste. Little by little, we rehabilitated the hospital so that it could function as a medical referral center.

On December 27 we entered the towns of Adwa and Axum, to the west of Adigrat, in central Tigray. There we found a similar situation: no electricity and no water. All the medicines had been stolen from Adwa general hospital, and the hospital furniture and equipment were broken. Fortunately, the Don Bosco institution in Adwa had converted its clinic into an emergency hospital with a small operating theater. In Axum, the 200-bed university hospital had not been attacked, but it was only operating at 10 percent capacity.

On roads where the security situation remained uncertain, we trucked food, medicine, and oxygen to these hospitals and began to support the most essential medical departments, such as the operating theaters, maternity units, and emergency rooms, and to refer critical patients.

Medical needs going unseen and unmet

Beyond the hospitals, around 80 or 90 percent of the health centers that we visited between Mekele and Axum were not functional, either due to a lack of staff or because they had suffered robberies. When primary care services do not exist, people can’t access or be referred to hospitals.

For example, before the crisis, [on average] two appendicitis operations were performed per day at Adigrat hospital. In the past two months, they haven’t done a single one. In every place, we saw patients arriving late. One woman had been in labor for seven days without being able to give birth. Her life was saved because we were able to transport her to Mekele. I saw people arrive at the hospital on bicycles carrying a patient from 30 kilometers away. And those were the ones who managed to get to the hospital.

If women with complicated deliveries, seriously ill patients, and people with appendicitis and trauma injuries can’t get to hospital, you can imagine the consequences. There is a large population suffering, surely with fatal consequences. Adigrat hospital serves an area with more than one million people, and the hospital in Axum serves an area with more than three million people. If these hospitals don’t function properly and can’t be accessed, then people die at home.

When the health system is broken, vaccinations, disease detection, and nutritional programs don’t function either. There have been no vaccinations in almost three months, so we fear there will be epidemics soon.

In recent weeks, our mobile medical teams have started visiting areas outside the main cities, and we are reopening some health centers. We believe our presence brings a certain feeling of protection. We have seen some health staff returning to work. Only five people attended the first meeting we organized in Adwa hospital, but the second was attended by 15, and more than 40 people came to the third. Beyond medical activities, you feel that you offer people some hope: the feeling that things can improve after two months without good news.

People fleeing violence, living in fear

In eastern and central Tigray, we did not see large settlements of displaced people. Instead, most have taken refuge with relatives and friends, so many homes now have 20 or 25 people living together. The impact of the violence is visible in the buildings and in the cars with bullet holes.

Especially at the beginning, we saw a population locked in their homes and living in great fear. Everyone gave us pieces of paper with phone numbers written on them and asked us to convey messages to their families. People don’t even know if their relatives and loved ones are okay, because in many places there are still no telephones or telecommunications.

When we arrived in Adigrat, we saw lines of 500 people next to a water truck waiting to get 20 liters of water per family at most. The telephone line was restored in Adigrat just a few days ago. The situation is improving little by little, but as we moved westward to new places we found the same scenario: fewer services, less transport.

We are very concerned about what may be happening in rural areas. We still haven’t been able to go to many places, either because of insecurity or because it is hard to obtain authorization. But we know, because community elders and traditional authorities have told us, that the situation in these places is very bad.

Large areas of Tigray have very mountainous terrain, with winding roads that climb from 2,000 meters above sea level to 3,000 meters. Cities like Adwa and Axum are built on the fertile highlands, but a large part of the population lives in the mountains. We have heard that there are people who have fled to these more remote areas because of the violence.

Logistical challenges, late response

The efforts of our teams have been enormous at all levels—medical, financial, logistical, and human resources. It’s an incredible challenge without telephone or internet. At first there were no flights to Mekele and we had to move everything nearly 1,000 kilometers by road from the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. You couldn’t make money transfers because the banks were all closed. Yet we managed to start our operations.

Now other aid organizations are beginning to appear, little by little, in some areas. We still don’t know the real impact of this crisis, but we have to keep working to find out as soon as possible.

Other MSF teams are currently delivering medical care in different areas of central, south, and northwestern Tigray. MSF teams are also responding to the health needs of displaced people at the border of the Amhara region and in Sudan.

Exclusive: Ethiopia to seek debt relief under G20 debt framework – ministry

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NAIROBI (Reuters) – Ethiopia plans to seek a restructuring of its sovereign debt under a new G20 common framework and is looking at all the available options, the country’s finance ministry told Reuters on Friday.

Debt

Ethiopia Government Debt as a percent of GDP

Ethiopia’s government bonds saw their biggest ever daily fall on the news and analysts said restructuring concerns could spill over to hit other borrowers.

G20 nations agreed in November for the first time to a common approach for restructuring government debts to help ease the strain on some developing countries driven towards the risk of default by the costs of the coronavirus pandemic.

Chad became on Wednesday the first country to officially request a debt restructuring under the new framework and a French finance ministry told Reuters on Thursday that Zambia and Ethiopia were most likely to follow suit.

Asked if Ethiopia was looking to seek a debt restructuring under the G20 framework, Finance Ministry spokeswoman Semereta Sewasew said: “Yes, Ethiopia will look at all available debt treatment options under the G20 communique issued in November.”

Ethiopia’s government bond due for repayment in 2024, which it issued in late 2014, plunged 8.4 cents on the dollar from roughly par to just under 92 cents.

Ethiopia is already benefiting from a suspension of interest payments to its official sector creditors until the end of June under an initiative between the G20 and the Paris Club of creditor nations.

‘UNCERTAINTY’

Under the new G20 framework, debtor countries are expected to seek an IMF programme to get their economies back onto a firmer footing and negotiate a debt reduction from both public and private creditors.

Ethiopia has a $1 billion dollar bond outstanding, though only $66 million worth of interest payments on the issue are coming due this year.

The news that Ethiopia would seek debt relief left investors wondering whether they would be left to take a hit in the event of a restructuring.

“Given the G20 common framework has not been put to the test yet, we hope the G20 will come out with some sort of explanation as this uncertainty can hit the countries’ rating and spill over into other sub-Saharan African credits,” said Simon Quijano-Evans, chief economist at Gemcorp Capital LLP.

ING emerging market sovereign debt strategist Trieu Pham said the fact that Ethiopia has Eurobonds outstanding was a cause for concern as it could have broader implications.

“Should Ethiopia go this way then that could weigh on overall sentiment as people will wonder if there might be others (following),” he said.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 70 – 29 January 20

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 28 January)

● Asmara is mobilising 200.000 fresh troops, assigned to travel from Eritrea to Tigray to fight, through both the Zalambesa & Rama border, for a “final offensive.” This ‘huge’ number “has been achieved by enlisting several categories of conscripts who might have previously been exempt. This includes women with very young children, retired soldiers and some children as young as 16.”

● It is reported that “the Eritrea plan is to finish off the Tigrayan resistance before international pressure forces the Ethiopian government to give access to Tigray for aid and reporters.”

● The Morning Star reports that a letter signed by a Prosperity Party representative, was leaked to them showing that Ethiopian government forces threatened to kill TPLF members if they refused to join the ruling Prosperity Party. Similar threats were made to journalist Dawit Kebede, just before he was shot.

● Human Rights Concern Eritrea (HRCE) received eye witness accounts of the killing of unarmed civilian refugees at the Eritrean refugee camp in Shimelba, Tigray. in Nov, two senior Eritrean military officers entered the camp and told refugees to return to Eritrea. The refugees refused, fearing for their lives.

● HRCE reports that subsequently eight Tigrayan civilians, suspected of supporting the TPLF, were brought into the camp and that they were executed in front of the refugees, to terrorise them. Four Eritrean refugees, from the Kunama tribe, were also killed by the Eritrean forces.

● As refugees were terrified by the executions, they were removed at gunpoint from the camp and marched to Sheraro, where they were loaded onto trucks and repatriated to Eritrea, states HRCE.

● HRCE reports that on the 23rd Nov armed militia started to shoot at refugees in the Hitsats Eritrean refugee camp in Tigray. Ten refugees died immediately; more than forty were wounded.

● On 5th Jan, Eritrean military forces ordered all refugees in the Hitsats camp to march on foot to Sheraro; pregnant women, children, elderly. There they were loaded on trucks and taken to Eritrea, states HRCE. The information was obtained from refugees who could escape and contacted HRCE.

● Shimelba and Hitsats camps are deserted and there have been fires, confirmed by satellite images.

● Eritrean troops allegedly killed more than 10 civilians in Idagahamus today.

● According to sources, Tigray forces killed more than 2000 ENDF allied forces at May Keyih area.

● Heavy fighting reported around Wukro and also in Tsigereda.

● A fourth video appears of civilians speaking about the atrocities and killing of civilians in Aksum on Nov 28-30th. In the video, some Eritrean soldiers deny the killing of civilians. One Eritrean soldier states that they were in Aksum and other towns and killed those suspected to be enemies.

● EriTV announced the death of senior Eritrean officer Colonel Girmay Gebreyesus.

Reported International situation (as confirmed per 28 January)

● The Stop Slavery in Eritrea Campaign issues a statement against forced conscription in Eritrea, demanding protection of Eritrean refugees in Tigray; demands that Eritrea suspends forced conscripts and suspends all war activity, withdraws Eritrean troops from foreign territory; and asks all Eritrean conscripts to “defy orders to attack innocent civilians.

● Stop Slavery states that the UN Security Council must reinstate sanctions on President Esayas Afwerki and PFDJ officials, stating: “This is Isaias’ war, the same Isaias Afwerki found guilty of crimes against humanity, using forced conscripts under the indefinite national slavery program to wage war on Tigray and commit horrendous crimes – gross human rights violations to which Eritreans have been subjected to for decades – and now he is also allegedly unleashing on civilians in Tigray with impunity.”

● Stop Slavery states: “that many of the forced Eritrean conscripts are underaged girls and boys.”

● Stop Slavery demands an independent investigation in war crimes committed and that Eritrean and Ethiopian forces found guilty of war crimes to be taken to the International Criminal Court.

● Stop Slavery expresses deep concern “about reports of Eritrean refugees forcibly returned to Eritrea by the brutal regime they fled from.” The campaign urges UNHCR “to protect Eritrean refugees.”

● Stop Slavery states that it is inspired by Somali mothers demanding the return of their children, secretly recruited for the war in Tigray: “We are inspired by the courageous Somali mothers demanding the return of their children that have joined the war in Tigray.”

● Reuters has reported that Eritrea has secretly been recruiting Somali men and sending them to fight in TIgray. According to people interviewed, young men were recruited by the Somali Federal Government to work in Qatar, but instead were sent to Eritrea to serve in the military against their will.

● The young men were not told. One called home in November and said: “We were all shocked to land in Eritrea.” and “I have not seen food save a lump or slice of bread since I left Somalia in 2019.”

● Human Rights Concern Eritrea (HRCE) states that Eritrean military forces “consists mostly of young conscripts who have been forced to fight in Tigray against their will.”

● HRCE states that the UN Commission of Inquiry into Human Rights in Eritrea found “evidence of Crimes against Humanity” being committed in Eritrea and that Crimes against Humanity have been committed in Tigray. HRCE calls on the International Criminal Court to investigate these crimes immediately.

● Protests by Somali mothers asking where their children are, in Mogadishu, Guriel, and Galkayo.

● Somalia has admitted that it sent young recruits for training to Eritrea, according to Garowe online.

● The United States demanded that Eritrea leave Tigray immediately. The US calls for an independent and transparent investigation into the abuses in the region. The US Senate Foreign Affairs committee discussed the conflict in the Horn and Sudan.

● In Washington protest held demanding Eritrea leaves Tigray by Tigray and Eritrean protesters.

● In a new statement, UNICEF has said that 10% of the children below five are showing signs of severe malnutrition. This is above the WHO 3% emergency threshold.

● The Washington Post published an opinion asking whether PM Abiy is committing war crimes. The Post points to the many atrocities committed by Eritrean troops in the region. No action has been taken by the Abiy government despite many reports coming out of the region of massacres, rapes and looting.

● The Washington Post states that PM Abiy has been accused of blocking food deliveries to the region, even as soldiers were burning crops and stealing cattle. International officials have warned that millions are at risk of starvation; the Tigray interim government stated that people had died of famine.

● U.N. officials say about 80 aid workers are waiting in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, for permission to travel to Tigray.

● Joint NGO Letter calls for a Special Session on the deteriorating human rights situation in Ethiopia.

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

 

A pogrom is happening in Ethiopia

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The Globe & Mail | Robert Rotberg 

Ethiopia is killing its own citizens, wantonly. That is chilling, but true: By attempting to extirpate Ethiopians of Tigrayan ethnicity and heritage, Ethiopia’s military and government stands accused of purposeful ethnic cleansing, a precursor to all-out genocide, as outlawed by the UN convention against genocide.

Upholders of world order, such as Canada, should immediately refer the atrocities in the Tigrayan region of Ethiopia to the International Criminal Court so that its investigators can examine the massacres and prepare prosecutions. Additionally, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) norm, championed by a Canadian-instigated commission and adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2005 to end a slaughter of the innocents, should now be invoked.

Late last year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed decided that leaders from the Tigray region – and apparently, by extension, all Tigrayans – had undermined his authority by defying the central government and holding a vote for its local legislative assembly. As punishment, Mr. Abiy sent the military to invade the small northern region of Tigray.

Only 6 per cent of Ethiopians are Tigrayans, but Mr. Abiy – whose Oromo ethnic group is the largest in the country, comprising 34 per cent of the population – had seemingly decided that their very existence threatened his control of 110 million Ethiopians.

Mr. Abiy promised that the campaign would be short and surgical, but that’s not how events have played out. Because telephone service and the internet have been mostly cut off since November in Tigray, no one really knows how many Tigrayans have been maimed or killed by the Ethiopian army and how much of Tigray has been destroyed. However, smuggled reports indicate that thousands have died in combat and collaterally; despite Mr. Abiy’s claims to the contrary, doctors in the main hospital in Mekelle, Tigray’s provincial capital, have said that indiscriminate shelling has killed civilians. At least 50,000 Tigrayans have fled across the Sudanese border into squalid refugee camps. About 4.5 million of Tigray’s six million inhabitants desperately need emergency food aid, and some will soon starve.

Two weeks ago, the military executed Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s former long-time foreign minister; at least 47 of 167 prominent Tigrayans on a most-wanted list have also been killed or captured. About 750 civilians huddling in a cathedral in the historic town of Aksum were reportedly massacred. Widespread raping is alleged, especially in Mekelle. Troops are still scouring the jagged Tembien mountains for remaining Tigrayan leaders, taking no prisoners.

Tigrayans, who were once mainstays of the country’s army, air force, sections of the civil service and Ethiopian Airlines (which was headed by a Tigrayan who has since been refused permission to fly), have been marginalized even beyond Tigray’s borders. It has the appearance of a pogrom.

The underlying cause of Mr. Abiy’s sudden hostility to Tigrayans stems from the overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974 by a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, a vicious dictator who drove Ethiopian deeper into poverty than ever before with a Stalinist-inspired agricultural program.

Meles Zenawi, a charismatic Tigrayan, created a revolutionary guerrilla force in the Sudan and, in 1991, led the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) to a series of striking military victories against Mr. Mengistu’s army. After Mr. Mengistu eventually fled to Zimbabwe, Mr. Meles and a cabal mostly made up of Tigrayans ruled Ethiopia in a quasi-democratic fashion, rigging elections (especially in 2005) but also gradually uplifting the lives of many Ethiopians, including those who are Oromo and Amhara, the largest two ethnic groups in the country.

The Oromo and other ethnic groups felt discriminated against by Tigrayans under Mr. Meles. After he died unexpectedly in 2012, he was succeeded by Hailemariam Desalegn, an Ethiopian from the southern Wolayta ethnic group. He ruled on behalf of the Tigrayans who had assisted Mr. Meles.

After protests by Oromo erupted in 2017, Mr. Hailemariam transferred power in 2018 to Mr. Abiy, an Oromo who had fought with Mr. Meles and the EPRDF against Mr. Mengistu and who was a trusted ally in the Tigrayan-led government. Now, he has abruptly turned against Tigray.

In 2019, Mr. Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the country’s 19-year diplomatic standoff with Eritrea and for releasing political prisoners and adopting liberal governance within Ethiopia. Mr. Abiy was lauded across Africa, Europe and the Americas as a welcome new democratic leader. Now he has exposed his true colours, besmirching the very name and ideals behind the Nobel Peace Prize.

It is past time to stop the slaughter in Tigray and to bring Mr. Abiy to justice.

US ‘Directly’ Presses Eritrea to Withdraw Forces From Tigray

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Associated Press — The United States says it has directly “pressed senior levels” of Eritrea’s government to immediately withdraw its troops from neighboring Ethiopia, where witnesses have described them looting and hunting down civilians in the embattled Tigray region.

A State Department spokesperson in an email to The Associated Press on Thursday said Washington has conveyed “grave” concerns about credible reports of abuses. There were no details on how officials with Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive countries, responded.

Eritrea has said little publicly about the conflict in Tigray as Ethiopian soldiers fight forces loyal to the now-fugitive Tigray regional leaders who once dominated Ethiopia’s government for nearly three decades. The Tigray leaders were marginalized after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, and each side regards the other as illegitimate.

Ethiopia has repeatedly denied the presence of Eritrean soldiers, who some witnesses have estimated in the thousands. Now concerns are growing that the Eritrean forces refuse to leave. Eritrea remains an enemy of the fugitive Tigray leaders after a two-decade border war that ended under Abiy.

Eritrea’s information ministry on Thursday published a statement by the country’s embassy in the U.S. responding to an open letter this week by former U.S. ambassadors to Ethiopia that expressed concern about the Tigray conflict and Eritrea’s involvement.

“The allusion by these ambassadors to potential territorial war between Eritrea and Ethiopia can only be disingenuous in content and vicious in intent,” Eritrea’s statement said, expressing “profound dismay at their provocative and ill-intentioned swipe.”

The Tigray region remains largely cut off from the outside world and Ethiopia has blocked almost all journalists from entering, complicating efforts to verify assertions by the warring sides.

Meanwhile, humanitarian workers have had limited access to the estimated 6 million people in Tigray as food and other supplies run short and concerns about starvation grow.

The situation is “deteriorating every day, every minute,” the president of the Ethiopian Red Cross Society, Ato Abera Tola, told reporters on Thursday as Red Cross entities appealed for more financial support. “There is no area which is not affected by this conflict … the conflict is everywhere.”

The Ethiopia head of delegation for the International Committee for the Red Cross, Katia Sorin, said they still had not been able to reach rural areas of Tigray, a largely agricultural region. The ICRC is one of the few international organizations to maintain its operations in Tigray after fighting began.

“We’re helping, but it’s a drop in the ocean of need,” Sorin said.

Joint NGO Letter call for a Special Session on the deteriorating human rights situation in Ethiopia

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The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect saves lives by mobilizing the international community to act in situations where populations are at risk of mass atrocity crimes. | R2P

28 January 2021 | OPEN LETTER |

To Permanent Representatives of Member and Observer States of the United Nations Human Rights Council, Geneva, Switzerland

Your Excellency,

We, the undersigned human rights non-governmental organizations, strongly support the call for a UN Human Rights Council (HRC) special session on the deteriorating human rights situation in Ethiopia and urge your delegation to support such a session without further delay.

Since 4 November 2020, fighting between federal government forces and affiliated militias with forces and militia allied to Tigray’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, have reportedly killed hundreds of civilians and caused more than one million people to flee their homes, including at least 57,000 refugees who are now in Sudan. There have been widespread reports of serious violations of international humanitarian law and human rights violations and abuses including possible atrocity crimes, including indiscriminate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, unlawful killings, widespread looting, and rape and sexual violence against women and girls. There have also been reports of massacres committed along ethnic lines within Tigray, as well as ethnic profiling, discrimination, and hate speech against Tigrayans both within and outside the country. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees has also expressed alarm for the “safety and well-being” of the 96,000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray, given the unconfirmed but “overwhelming number of reports of Eritrean refugees in Tigray being killed, abducted and forcibly returned to Eritrea,” where they could face persecution. Access to independent humanitarian aid continues to be limited in Tigray despite an agreement reached between the federal government and the UN on 29 November. Journalists critical of the government have been arrested, exacerbating existing restrictions on communication and information from the region.

Given the gravity of these alleged violations and abuses, we believe that a Human Rights Council special session on Ethiopia is essential to ensure international scrutiny of the situation and to adopt measures to prevent any further deterioration of the crisis.

While the Council should pay particular attention to the situation in Tigray, it should not restrict itself to addressing only one region of Ethiopia. It is important that the Council acknowledges the general deterioration of human rights in other parts of the country, particularly in the last year. This includes reports of deadly violence along ethnic and communal lines; allegations of abuse by security forces in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz, Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ and Amhara regions; and fighting along the borders between the Tigray and Amhara regions, the Oromia and Somali regions, and the Afar and Somali region.

A Special Session would enable the HRC to receive information from the High Commissioner for Human Rights and others on the gravity of the ongoing crisis, including how long-standing grievances and structural issues have contributed to the overall deterioration of the human rights situation, and to take appropriate action, in line with the Council’s prevention mandate, to prevent further violations and abuses.

We believe that supporting calls for action by the heads of various UN agencies, including through holding a special session, is necessary to uphold the HRC’s founding principles of the promotion and protection of human rights. On 7 December the UN Secretary-General expressed his concern about the situation in Tigray, calling for full respect for human rights and the guarantee of unfettered humanitarian access. On 22 December the High Commissioner for Human Rights described the situation as “heart-breaking as it is appalling” and emphasized the urgent need for “independent, impartial, thorough and transparent investigations to establish accountability and ensure justice” for grave violations. Furthermore, on 12 November the UN Special Advisers on the Prevention of Genocide and the Responsibility to Protect warned that if escalating ethnic tensions in Ethiopia are not urgently addressed the “risk of atrocity crimes in Ethiopia remains high.”

We respectfully urge you to recognize serious concerns expressed by the UN Secretary-General, High Commissioner for Human Rights, High Commissioner for Refugees and the Special Advisers on the Prevention of Genocide and the Responsibility to Protect by:

  • calling, without delay, for the convening of a special session of the UN Human Rights Council to discuss the situation in Ethiopia, with a focus on the human rights violations and abuses that continue to take place in Tigray and throughout the country;
  • presenting for adoption a resolution to ensure independent and impartial investigations into alleged violations and abuses of international human rights law and violations of international humanitarian law, some of which may amount to atrocity crimes, committed by all parties to the conflict. The findings should be reported to the Human Rights Council, including recommendations to prevent further human rights violations and abuses and ensure accountability.

Respectfully yours,

  1. African Centre for Democracy and Human Rights Studies (ACDHRS)
  2. CIVICUS
  3. Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
  4. Global Justice Center
  5. Human Rights Watch
  6. International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH)
  7. International Service for Human Rights (ISHR)
  8. Southern African Human Rights Defenders Network (SAHRDN)
  9. Women’s Refugee Commission (WRC)
SOURCE | Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect and other NGOs

Ethiopia Moves Artillery to Sudanese Border After Deadly Clashes

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Bloomberg | Sudan delegation met Saudi officials to discuss crisis. Tension adds to dispute over construction of giant hydro dam. 

Ethiopia moved heavy weapons to disputed territory on its border with Sudan, according to people familiar with the matter.

The military build-up in an area known as the al-Fashqa triangle signals increasing tensions, after deadly clashes in recent weeks raised international concern. Sudanese officials met Saudi Arabian officials in Riyadh on Wednesday to discuss the crisis, after the U.K. last week called for a de-escalation of tensions.

The Ethiopian army deployed armaments including tanks and anti-aircraft batteries to the border region in the past two weeks, said two foreign diplomats who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s spokeswoman Billene Seyoum referred a request for comment to the Foreign Ministry, and Redwan Hussein, spokesman for the government’s emergency task force, didn’t respond to a request for comment sent by text message.

Ethiopia’s government earlier this month accused the Sudanese military of carrying out organized attacks using machine-guns and armored convoys at their border. Those attacks killed “many civilians,” according to Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry.

Tensions between the two nations have ratcheted up since conflict erupted in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region on Nov. 4. Regional analysts and diplomats have said Abiy is under pressure from powerful Amhara politicians in his government, including Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen, not to back down on the border dispute.

The state of Amhara, whose fighters backed the Ethiopian federal army’s incursion into Tigray, claims ownership of parts of al-Fashqa, including areas that are within Sudanese territory. Historically, Khartoum has allowed Amhara farmers to conduct business and live in the fertile area as long as they pay taxes and operate under Sudanese laws. In turn, Ethiopia has recognized the land as Sudanese.

Demeke’s spokesman, Dina Mufti, didn’t answer two calls to his mobile phone seeking comment.

The border dispute is straining relations already weakened by an impasse over a giant hydropower dam Ethiopia is building on the main tributary of the Nile River. Sudan and Egypt depend on the flow of the river for fresh water, and both countries want Ethiopia to agree to rules on the filling and operating of the reservoir to safeguard supplies.

Sudan says the border area around al-Fashqa was demarcated under colonial-era treaties dating back to 1902, putting the land firmly inside its international borders.
Mohamed al-Faki Suleiman, a member of Sudan’s transitional government, said Wednesday he’d sought political support from Saudi Arabia in talks he held in Riyadh, Sudan’s state-run SUNA news agency reported. Any eruption of war could affect security in the wider region, including the Red Sea, he said.

Ethiopia’s leader won the Nobel Peace Prize. Now he’s accused of war crimes.

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Washingtonpost (Opinion)  — FIFTEEN MONTHS ago Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for ending his country’s conflict with neighboring Eritrea. Now he may be perpetrating grave crimes against humanity. After launching an invasion of the rebellious province of Tigray, Mr. Abiy’s regime stands accused of sealing off the region and blocking deliveries of food and other humanitarian aid. International aid officials are warning that millions of people could be at risk of famine.

When he rose to power in 2018, Mr. Abiy displaced politicians and generals from Tigray who had ruled Ethiopia for 27 years under a ruthless autocracy. In addition to ending the war, the new leader released political prisoners and promised democratic elections. Yet the campaign Mr. Abiy launched against Tigray in early November has all the earmarks of Ethiopia’s previous dictators. In occupying the province’s capital and other towns, federal forces, ethnic militias and allied troops from Eritrea have carried out massacres and rapes, according to the sporadic reports emerging from the region. Journalists have been banned, and phone and Internet services are down. Two million of Tigray’s 6 million people are believed to be displaced.

Without food deliveries, many of those people could starve. Yet up until late last week, federal and regional officials were blocking deliveries by the United Nations, even while government troops reportedly burned crops and destroyed livestock. On Friday, U.N. humanitarian relief coordinator Mark Lowcock reported that authorities had finally authorized the movement of 500 metric tons of food to Tigray’s main cities and two out of four refugee camps. But, he tweeted, “we must get more aid workers and life-saving supplies into Tigray so we can scale up operations.” U.N. officials say about 80 aid workers are waiting in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, for permission to travel to Tigray. Until they can get in, it won’t be clear how serious the food problem remains.

Mr. Abiy’s government claims to be engaged in a “stabilizing mission” after routing the forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). In fact, it has been relentlessly hunting down fugitive TPLF leaders — including longtime former Ethiopian foreign minister Seyoum Mesfin, 71, who was gunned down this month in what authorities claimed was a shootout. Though four dozen TPLF leaders have reportedly been killed or captured, scores remain at large, along with thousands of fighters who still control parts of the province.

Mr. Abiy contends his forces have already triumphed in Tigray and the conflict will soon be over. More likely, a guerrilla war with the TPLF will drag on for years, and the humanitarian crisis will deepen, even if an immediate famine is averted. That’s why the United States and the European Union, which heavily fund Ethiopia, should withhold further aid until there is full humanitarian access to Tigray and the government agrees to pursue peace talks.