European envoy in Sudan to ease tension with Ethiopia

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Anadolu Agency | Tension escalated between Sudan and Ethiopia over their border dispute

A European special envoy is set to arrive in Sudan on Sunday for talks aimed at easing tension with Ethiopia over their border dispute.

“The High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy in the European Union, Josep Borrell, assigned the Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pekka Haavisto, to visit Sudan and Ethiopia as a special envoy of the European Union,” the EU Mission in Sudan said in a statement.

The visit aims “to help ease tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia, and to find out how the international community can provide support in finding peaceful solutions to the current crises facing the region”, the statement added.

Haavisto is expected to stay in Khartoum for two days where he will meet Sudan’s top officials, including Abdelfattah al-Burhan, chairman of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok and Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din.

Relations between Khartoum and Addis Ababa witnessed tensions over Sudanese accusations to Ethiopia of supporting gangs that targeted Sudanese territories along with stuck talks over border demarcation.

Sudan: Further GERD filling ‘direct threat’ to national security

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Al Jazeera | Irrigation and water resources minister says the unilateral move by Ethiopia in July would ‘threaten the lives of half the population in central Sudan’.

Sudan has said neighbouring Ethiopia should not unilaterally go ahead with the further filling a massive dam on the Blue Nile River, saying such a move would threaten its national security.

The comments on Saturday by Sudanese Irrigation and Water Resources Minister Yasser Abbas marked the latest expression of Sudanese concern about Addis Ababa’s apparent determination to fill the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) without first reaching an agreement with Khartoum and Cairo.

“The filling of the Renaissance Dam by one side next July represents a direct threat to Sudan’s national security,” Abbas told Reuters news agency.

In a separate interview with AFP news agency, Abbas said the filling the dam would also “threaten the lives of half the population in central Sudan, as well as irrigation water for agricultural projects and power generation from [Sudan’s] Roseires Dam”.

There was no immediate reaction by Ethiopian officials.

Ethiopia has been building the GERD on the Blue Nile, close to its border with Sudan, and says the dam is crucial to its economic development. Sudan hopes the hydropower dam will regulate annual flooding, but fears that its own dams, including the Roseires and Merowe, would be harmed if no agreement is reached.

Egypt, meanwhile, views GERD as a big threat to its freshwater supplies, more than 90 percent of which come from the Nile.

Ethiopia began filling the reservoir behind its dam after the summer rains last year despite demands from Egypt and Sudan that it should first reach a binding agreement on the dam’s operation.

The latest three-way talks were held last month in the presence of observers from the African Union (AU) and European Union, but failed to make headway.

On Saturday, Abbas said Sudan was also proposing a mediation role for the United States, EU, United Nations and AU as a way of breaking the deadlock in talks about the dam between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia.

The Blue Nile flows north into Sudan, then Egypt and is the Nile’s main tributary.

The Nile, the world’s longest river, is a lifeline supplying both water and electricity to the 10 countries it traverses.

Its main tributaries, the White and Blue Nile, converge in Khartoum before flowing north through Egypt to drain into the Mediterranean Sea.

The warnings from Abbas come amid increased tensions between Addis Ababa and Khartoum in recent weeks following skirmishes at the Al-Fashaqa border region, where Ethiopian farmers cultivate fertile land claimed by Sudan.

In December last year, Sudan accused Ethiopian “forces and militias” of ambushing its troops along the border, leaving four dead and more than 20 wounded. Both sides have since moved tanks and heavy weapons along the frontier, accusing each other of pushing further into the contested area.

Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed goes from flying start to a quicksand of troubles

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The National News | Prime minister faces civil war, ethnic divisions and simmering disputes with neighbours.

For Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the promise and optimism he projected when he took the reins in the Horn of Africa nation three years ago must have become a fading memory.

Those expectations have been replaced by a civil war, widening ethnic schisms and a growing crisis with neighbouring Sudan and fellow Nile basin nation Egypt.

Since winning the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize after forging peace with arch-enemy Eritrea in his first year in office, the prime minister has gone from being his country’s beacon of hope for unity and economic prosperity to a leader who shows little tolerance for dissent.

Significantly, Ethiopia’s woes and Mr Abiy’s own political predicament cast a dark shadow on the Horn of Africa and beyond.

“The high expectations of 2018 have proved to be misplaced,” said William Davison, the leading Ethiopia expert at the International Crisis Group, a conflict-prevention organisation headquartered in Brussels.

“Everything that’s happening now demonstrates that hopes for a smooth transition to peaceful multi-party democracy were naive.”

Unrest in Ethiopia – at about 110 million people the second most populous African nation – could force millions to flee their homes and take refuge in neighbouring nations.

Addis Ababa also hosts the headquarters of the African Union and the country is among Africa’s largest contributors of peacekeepers. Some of its population share the same ethnic background with cousins in countries like South Sudan and Somalia.

With a burgeoning economy and the potential to export cheap electricity from its nearly completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile, Ethiopia has been viewed as a future engine for growth in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

Of all its troubles, the war between federal forces and separatist rebels in the northern Tigray region is by far the most worrisome.

Besides the financial and human cost of a full-fledged military operation raging there since November, the reported involvement of government-sanctioned militias from the powerful Amhara group threatens to deepen ethnic schisms and extend the conflict beyond Ethiopia’s borders.

The militias are believed to have wrested control of areas of Tigray they claim to historically belong to the Amhara.

There are also indications that forces from neighbouring Eritrea, a longtime enemy of Tigrayans, are fighting on the side of the government, something that could only perpetuate the conflict in Tigray, according to analysts.

There are credible reports of systematic atrocities and looting of heritage sites in the Tigray conflict committed by all parties, analysts said.

“Abiy has been undone by the Tigray conflict and he has administered brutal suppression of Tigrayans and brought the Amhara there to be their overlords,” said Gihad Auda, a political science professor at Cairo’s Helwan university.

The conflict in Tigray and the participation of the Amhara in the fighting have also inflamed a border crisis between Ethiopia and Sudan, which moved in December to regain control of some of its territory which had been settled by Amhara farmers for decades.

The Sudanese military’s operations in the area triggered deadly clashes with Ethiopian forces and allied militias, including mortar shelling and cross-border raids. The latest of these clashes took place on Thursday when one Sudanese soldier was killed and eight others were wounded, according to the Sudanese military.

The areas of Tigray seized by Amhara militias border Sudan, raising the likelihood of further clashes. Moreover, Ethiopia insisted that it will not negotiate on resolving the border crisis before Sudan pulls its troops from the areas retaken from Amhara farmers, a position rejected by Sudan.

Tensions between the neighbours have already been raised by the long-simmering dispute over Ethiopia’s new dam, located less than 20 kilometres from the Sudanese border.

Sudan wants Ethiopia to enter into a legally binding deal to share information and data on the operation of the dam to prevent flooding and the disruption of its own power-generating dams on the Blue Nile. Ethiopia will agree only to non-binding recommendations.

The dispute over the dam also involves downstream Egypt, which is alarmed by the possibility that the giant structure would significantly reduce its vital share of the Nile waters.

On the other hand, the dam has become a rare rallying point for Ethiopians, making it impossible for Mr Abiy to offer compromises on its operation to the Egyptians and Sudanese, according to the analysts.

“Ethiopia’s problems are converging in a negative way with its neighbours,” said Michael Hanna of the Century Foundation in New York.

“Facts on the ground are facts on the ground and neither Egypt nor Sudan can do anything about it. Time is on Ethiopia’s side since 2011 [when construction of the dam began] but its internal issues are complicating efforts to resolve the dispute over the dam and other issues.”

In all likelihood, according to Mr Davison, Mr Abiy’s party will retain power following elections scheduled for June, but that is unlikely to narrow Ethiopia’s domestic fault lines.

“For that, the country needs to embark on a comprehensive and inclusive national dialogue to try and come to terms with the past and chart a more harmonious way forward.”

Ethiopian Government Blocking Aid in Tigray, UN Says

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VOA | GENEVA – The United Nations says that the Ethiopian government is preventing aid from reaching non-government-controlled rural areas in the Tigray region, where most of the province’s 2.3 million people in dire need of assistance are living.

Violent clashes continue in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region three months after the government launched a military offensive on the regional capital, Mekelle.  The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says humanitarian conditions in the region are alarming and rapidly deteriorating.

It says millions of people are in dire need of food, water and other essential relief and services.  However, it says aid workers are unable to reach most of the rural areas in Tigray, where the greatest number of people in need are living.

U.N. officials say insecurity and bureaucratic obstacles are preventing aid workers from accessing those areas.  OCHA spokesman Jens Laerke says government clearances needed to move the necessary staff into Tigray have not been received.

“An increasing amount of humanitarian cargo has been mobilized, but without staff and access, it will not reach the people who need it the most, especially in rural areas…Access to the countryside is mostly blocked for both U.N. agencies and NGO’s (non-governmental organizations), and no humanitarian assistance is taking place in non-government-controlled areas,” said Laerke.

Laerke notes aid is available for people living in towns along the main roads from Mekelle towards Shire, which are controlled by federal government forces.

He says people in rural areas, where two-thirds of Tigray’s population live, are not so fortunate.

He says economic activity and access to essential services, including electricity, telecommunications, cash, and fuel are largely disrupted.  He says hunger reportedly is growing.

“Lack of food in markets is reported, as the conflict broke out during harvest season, leaving crops unharvested,” said Laerke. “Key supply routes to Tigray are still cut.  And malnutrition among the population was already on the rise because of COVID-19 and the desert locust situation.”

Laerke says more than 70 humanitarian staffers are still waiting for their clearances in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.  He adds they are ready to move into Tigray to resume aid distribution as soon as the government gives them the go-ahead.

Desert Locust situation update 4 February 2021 – FAO

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FAO | Numerous immature swarms persist in southern Ethiopia and Kenya. There has been increased swarm movement in Oromia (East Harerge, Bale, Borema, Arsi) and SNNP (South Omo) regions of the south. The few swarms that moved to northern Ethiopia (Afar and Amhara) continued to Eritrea and reached the Red Sea coast where they were controlled. In Kenya, immature swarms continue to spread westwards across northern and central counties where there are currently about 20 small swarms present, mostly about 50 ha in size. Some of the swarms are in community areas and therefore cannot be treated. A small swarm reached Keiyo-Marakwet county in the west and another one was reported today in Turkana county in the northwest; hence, there is a risk that a few swarms could reach eastern Uganda and southeastern South Sudan.

It appears that the peak of the Kenya invasion has now passed as there have been no new reports of incoming swarms in the past two days and no further swarm reports in the east (Wajir, Garissa). Intensive control operations are underway in Kenya and southern Ethiopia to reduce the potential scale of the next generation of breeding. If rains fall in the next week or so, the swarms will quickly mature and lay eggs that will hatch and cause hopper bands to form; otherwise, this will be delayed until the arrival of the seasonal rains in March.

In Somalia, hopper bands are present on the northwest coast and in the northeast where some have started to fledge and will be forming immature swarms. Intensive control operations are underway to reduce the number of new swarms that will form this month. Swarms that form on the northwest coast are likely to move to the plateau and adjacent areas of eastern Ethiopia while swarms in the northeast are expected to spread west along the plateau where they could mature and give rise to another generation of breeding from about mid-March onwards, especially if more rains fall. A few swarms could migrate from the northeast towards southern Somalia where crop damage has been reported from previous swarms.

Control operations continue in winter breeding areas along the Red Sea, mainly against hopper groups and bands that formed along the coast of Saudi Arabia and to a lesser extent against hopper bands on both sides of the Eritrea/Sudan border. Any infestations that escape control in Saudi Arabia could form adult groups and swarms that would most likely move inland to the spring breeding areas of the interior. In Yemen, scattered adults persist mainly along the Red Sea coast and to a lesser extent on the Gulf of Aden coast in the south. There remains a risk that a few swarms may be present in inaccessible areas of the north, which could move to adjacent areas of southwest Saudi Arabia.

The situation remains calm in the other regions.

Ethiopia arrests 15 over UAE embassy attack plot: Reports

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Al Jazeera | The country’s intelligence and security service said suspects were working on direction of foreigners, local media report.

Ethiopia’s state-run media have said authorities arrested 15 people over a plot to attack the United Arab Emirates’ embassy in the capital, Addis Ababa.

The Ethiopian Press Agency (EPA) on Wednesday cited a statement from the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) as saying that the suspects were working on foreigners’ direction.

An unspecified amount of arms, explosives and documents were seized during the operation, according to the statement, which was also cited in a report by the state-affiliated FANA news outlet.

“The group took the mission from a foreign terrorist group and was preparing to inflict significant damage on properties and human lives,” EPA said.

There was no immediate comment by the UAE’s foreign ministry or its embassy in Addis Ababa.

A second group of suspects was planning to attack the UAE’s diplomatic mission in neighbouring Sudan, the EPA said.

Ethiopia’s NISS was working with its Sudanese counterparts on that aspect of the plot, the agency said. There was no immediate comment from Sudanese authorities.

In its report, FANA cited the statement as saying that a man named “Ahmed Ismael, who is the leader of the terrorist group and a resident of Sweden, was arrested in Sweden as a result of exchange of information with European, African, and Asian security services”.

The UAE has played a key diplomatic role in bringing longtime foes Ethiopia and Eritrea since Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s prime minister in 2018, while also providing financial contributions to stabilise Ethiopia’s economy.

Sudan army clashes with Ethiopia forces, regains control of seized borderland

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MEMO | Border clashes between the Sudanese army and Ethiopian forces were renewed in Al-Fashqa Al-Sughra on Thursday. Sudanese sources have confirmed that the army has regained control of new lands previously seized by Ethiopian forces.

The clashes that took place on Thursday were confirmed by Sudanese local media, the Sudan Tribune, Al-Sudani and Altaghyeer, reporting that fatalities and injuries occurred on the Sudanese side due to the fighting.

The Sudan Tribune reported that the Sudanese army on Thursday recovered an area on the borders following clashes with Ethiopian forces and militias in Al-Fashqa Al-Sughra, resulting in one death and eight injuries in the Sudanese forces.

The news website quoted military sources stating that the army managed to re-control the area of Cumbo Melkamu located in Al-Fashqa Al-Sughra, adjacent to the border strip with the Ethiopian Amhara region.

The news was also confirmed by Altaghyeer newspaper, quoting a military source stating: “The army forces liberated one of the Sudanese areas on the eastern borders.”

The military source confirmed that the area of Cumbo Melkamu had also been re-controlled by Sudanese troops.

Al-Sudani newspaper quoted eyewitnesses in the village of Barakat Noreen, claiming that Ethiopian forces attacked Sudanese forces, who responded and took control of the territory.

Recently, the borders between Khartoum and Addis Ababa witnessed significant developments, which led to an intervention by the Sudanese army with the aim of “regaining control of all of its territories.”

Sudan previously accused Ethiopia of supporting militias in usurping its lands, while Addis Ababa denied the allegations, amid stalled border demarcation negotiations between the two sides.

On 19 December, Sudan announced sending military reinforcements to the border area with Ethiopia, to “regain control over its usurped lands from an Ethiopian militia” in Al-Fashqa.

Prior to that, on 16 December, the Sudanese army announced the fall of casualties and losing military equipment in an attack launched by an Ethiopian militia in lands near Al-Fashqa.

The conflict in Al-Fashqa border area has been ongoing for decades, but it was limited to incidents between Ethiopian and Sudanese farmers, as Ethiopian gunmen frequently attacked Sudanese farmers for the purpose of looting and plundering. According to Khartoum, many were killed and injured in these aggressions.

The exceptionally fertile lands of Al-Fashqa are divided into three regions: Al-Fashqa Al-Kubra, Al-Fashqa Al-Sughra and the Southern Region.

Five Steps the Biden Administration Needs to Take on the Crisis in Tigray

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Just Security | The unfolding crisis in northern Ethiopia bears all the hallmarks of a human rights and humanitarian catastrophe. Since November, more than 6 million people have been trapped between the guns of Ethiopia’s military forces, marauding Eritrean troops, Amharan militia, and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The vast majority are now in urgent need of assistance. Yet the Ethiopian government continues to present a narrative that all is well in the north while effectively blocking relief aid. The Biden administration will need to move quickly to avoid further devastation in Tigray.

Much of Tigray remains under an information blackout. But not total. MSF has exposed the situation in Adigrat, a city in eastern Tigray. Witnesses speak of mass atrocities, of wanton extra-judicial killings, and gender violence. Ethiopian and Eritrean forces stand accused of targeting refugees and of deliberately razing their camps to the ground. The United States has demanded that Eritrea withdraw its troops from the region, but to little effect.

The humanitarian toll is already staggering. Two-plus million people have been internally displaced. Over four and a half million desperately need aid. A leaked government document quoted a regional government official acknowledging that people were starving. Medical doctors were said to be pleading for supplies, and body bags. Other reports highlight the fears of an exploding number of COVID-19 cases. In private, a senior United Nations official warned, “It is so bad, I can’t believe what I’ve seen. And there is no capacity, there are no supplies, and even if we had both of those there is no access.”

One hesitates to surmise what is happening across vast swathes of the region where journalists and aid workers cannot go. Ethiopia has a troubled history of blockading relief assistance to civilian populations in the midst of conflict. In decades past, the central government in Addis Ababa destroyed humanitarian stockpiles or otherwise prevented aid from reaching the people of Tigray as part of its counterinsurgency strategy against the TPLF. In the end, it was the people living there that starved – not the insurgents. History is once again at risk of repeating itself.

So far, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the conflict with Eritrea, has been largely impervious to outside pressure, as has Debretsion Gebremichael and the TPLF rebels he leads. The African Union sought to curb the slide to war in November, then largely disengaged. The Trump administration weighed in late in the game and in muted tones. European leaders have denounced atrocities in Tigray and have suspended $100 million in budget support for Ethiopia. But these efforts have yet to be sequenced into a coordinated diplomatic strategy to pressure Abiy to do the right thing.

All this must change – and quickly. The good news is that the Biden administration has already been more engaged and outspoken than its predecessor. The United States must now move swiftly and in concert with its partners and allies to prevent Ethiopia from fully collapsing and the country falling into the abyss. Key members of the Biden’s Cabinet have important roles to play.

First, incoming U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, can call on the U.N. Emergency Relief Coordinator and the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to provide the U.N. Security Council with frank and comprehensive briefings on the humanitarian and human rights situation in areas under the control of the Ethiopian army and forces allied with it, as well as areas under the control of the TPLF. The briefings must then be followed by concrete action. To date, the U.N. Security Council has taken up the situation in Tigray three times, but its members have failed to issue even so much as a statement.

Second, Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield can also push the U.N. Emergency Directors to meet and declare Tigray an “L3 Emergency” – the highest level of urgency that allows the U.N. humanitarian agencies to quickly mobilize staff and resources. This move should also trigger a special urgent donor appeal for the crisis in Tigray outside of the annual country Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), which do not include those who have sought refuge in neighboring Sudan. To be effective, this appeal will require early and urgent funding to make a difference.

Third, it’s time to send in the humanitarians. In recent years, the government, donors, U.N., and NGOs in Ethiopia used development frameworks and systems to respond to short-term needs caused from drought, flood, and the like. It would be easy to fall back on that model for this crisis, but that would be a mistake. Aid agencies need to flip the emergency switch and bring in dedicated humanitarian teams with the requisite skillsets and capacities. To this end, incoming USAID Administrator Samantha Power should send a DART team – America’s premier crisis response tool – to address the situation in Tigray. The scale, urgency, and complexity of the crisis certainly justify – if not require – the deployment of a DART.

Fourth, the White House must continue to press Eritrea to pull its forces back across the border. It also needs to push for the Ethiopian government to set the conditions in which relief groups can save lives. This means unfettered and blanket access to all affected communities. Ethiopia should issue 6-month visas for relief groups and expedite customs clearances for humanitarian supplies. In addition, humanitarians must be allowed to communicate in the information blackhole Tigray has become. The Ethiopian government must allow aid agencies to deploy telecommunications, including cell towers, sat phones, and HF/VHF radio.

Fifth, Secretary of State Antony Blinken must urgently appoint a special envoy for the Horn of Africa to help oversee a regional diplomatic strategy. Blinken has already told senators that he would consider such a move. A special envoy could also help coordinate efforts of the African Union, the European Union, and Ethiopia’s bilateral benefactors to bring concerted pressure to bear on Abiy and all parties to the conflict to make progress on the humanitarian situation and invest in a national political dialogue in advance of elections now scheduled for June of this year.

There is still time to pull back from the brink, but not much. Without an immediate infusion of assistance, to all areas of Tigray, a humanitarian crisis will become a humanitarian catastrophe the likes of which Ethiopia has not seen in a generation.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 78 – 06 February 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Reported war situation (as confirmed per 05 February)

● Stéphane Dujarric, Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, states that the situation in Tigray continues to be extremely alarming and is deteriorating rapidly.

● Dujarric states that the humanitarian response is entirely inadequate to the needs.

● The spokesperson states that humanitarian access remains restricted due to bureaucratic obstacles and due to insecurity on the ground.

● Humanitarian aid workers are prevented from accessing and helping victims from the conflict.

● According to the UN, 80 humanitarian workers are ready in Addis Ababa to travel to Tigray but are stuck in Addis Ababa for a month as they have not been receiving the necessary permits.

● Whilst 250.000 people have been reached, 4.2 million people need food aid and other assistance.

● Especially people in rural areas are not being reached by the aid efforts.

● The UN is assisting victims of gender-based violence across the Amhara and Tigray region.

● Fewer than one third out of the total number of people that the UN and humanitarian partners are trying to reach have access to water.

● Father Mussie Zerai, a priest of the Archdiocese of Asmara, Eritrea, says: “Today there is hunger in Tigray. There is talk of starvation in Tigray, because there are many areas not reached by humanitarian aid. I fear that hunger is being used as a tool of punishment and to force all forms of resistance to surrender. All of this is a crime against humanity.”

● Father Mussie Zerai, who works with migrants, states that 10,000 Eritrean refugees under international protection in Tigray were deported back to Eritrea by Eritrean troops. The refugees were under the protection of Ethiopia which failed to prevent the deportations.

● The Eritrean refugees that have been deported, were sheltered in two camps, Shemelba and Hitsats in Tigray, Ethiopia. Fr Mussie Zerai said that 10,000 of the refugees were deported to Eritrea.

● The Eritrean refugees which are deported to Eritrea face punishment, torture and indefinite compulsary national services, a form of forced labour, which the UN has classified as a Crime against Humanity.

● The Eritrean refugees had fled political persecution, compulsory indefinite military service, classified as a Crime against Humanity.

● UNHCR spokesperson, Mr. Baloch, states that UNHCR estimates that 15-20,000 refugees from the two camps are dispersed in areas where UNHCR does not have access.

● Baloch states that UNHCR workers have not had access to the two refugee camps in Tigray, Shemelba and Hitsats. It has been reported that the camps are entirely destroyed and made uninhabitable.

● The UN special adviser on the prevention of genocide, Alice Wairimu Nderitu, said on Friday that she has received reports of “serious human rights violations and abuses, committed by the parties to the conflict in the Tigray region and their allies. These include extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, looting of property, mass executions and impeded humanitarian access.”

● Nderitu is alarmed by “the continued escalation of ethnic violence in Ethiopia and allegations of serious violations of international humanitarian law and human rights in the Tigray region.”

● Nderitu states that “if urgent measures are not immediately taken to address the ongoing challenges facing the country, the risk of atrocity crimes in Ethiopia remains high and likely to get worse.”

Reported international situation (as confirmed per 05 February)

● European Parliament will debate the situation in Tigray in plenary on Thursday 11 February. The European Union has been active in addressing the crisis in Tigray, with concerted actions from the EU institutions and Member States.

● EU Member States have been able to ensure that the dramatic situation in Tigray has remained on the agenda of the UN Security Council during the last three months.

● Experts call on the US to also step up actions in concertation with the AU and the EU.

● It is suggested that incoming U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, could call on the U.N. Emergency Relief Coordinator and the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to provide the U.N. Security Council with “frank and comprehensive briefings on the humanitarian and human rights situation in areas under the control of the Ethiopian army and forces allied with it, as well as areas under the control of the TPLF.”

● Experts suggest that Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield can push the U.N. Emergency Directors to meet and declare Tigray an “L3 Emergency” – this is “the highest level of urgency that allows the U.N. humanitarian agencies to quickly mobilize staff and resources.”

● A L3 emergency move should also “trigger a special urgent donor appeal for the crisis in Tigray outside of the annual country Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), which do not include those who have sought refuge in neighboring Sudan. To be effective, this appeal will require early and urgent funding to make a difference.”

● The experts advise that USAID Administrator Samantha Power should send a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) to address the situation in Tigray: “The scale, urgency, and complexity of the crisis certainly justify – if not require – the deployment of a DART.”

● Experts emphasize that the White House should press Eritrea to pull its forces back across the border in Eritrea and withdraw all troops from Tigray.

● Experts advise that Secretary of State Antony Blinken must “urgently appoint a special envoy for the Horn of Africa to help oversee a regional diplomatic strategy. Blinken has already told senators that he would consider such a move. A special envoy could also help coordinate efforts of the African Union, the European Union, and Ethiopia’s bilateral benefactors.”

Disclaimer:
All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

US pledges support for Ethiopia’s reforms

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MEMO | US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced his government’s continued assistance to Ethiopia’s ongoing reform measures, Anadolu Agency reports.

After a phone call with Blinken on Friday, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Twitter: “Our aspirations to democratize and build a multidimensional prosperous & peaceful country for all will be enhanced through strengthened Ethiopia-US relations.”

A statement by the US State Department said Blinken stressed the significance of the US-Ethiopia bilateral relations.

“Secretary Blinken expressed our grave concern about the humanitarian crisis in the Tigray region and urged immediate, full, and unhindered humanitarian access to prevent further loss of life,” the statement added.

“The secretary also reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Ethiopia’s reform agenda and our support for upcoming national elections, regional peace and security, democracy and human rights, justice and accountability, and economic prosperity for all Ethiopians,” it noted.