Ten Elections to Watch in 2021

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Source: Council of Foreign Affairs | by James M. Lindsay

  1. Ethiopian Parliamentary Elections, 2021.

Ethiopians were supposed to go to the polls this past August. That vote was postponed, however, ostensibly because of COVID-19. If the vote is held in 2021, it will take place amid considerable turmoil. In late 2019, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed merged the ruling government coalition into a single political party. It includes nearly every major ethnic party except for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics before Abiy took office, refused to join. In September, Tigray, which accounts for 6 percent of Ethiopia’s population, defied the federal government and held regional elections. Two months later, Abiy claimed that Tigrayans had attacked a military base. He ordered military retaliation in response and quickly claimed that federal control had been reestablished over Tigray. Fighting has continued, however, and some 50,000 Tigrayans have been displaced. Meanwhile, ethnic violence is rising elsewhere in Ethiopia. Abiy was once seen as a leader who would bring stability and prosperity to Ethiopia—he was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. Now he looks to have turned in an autocratic direction by detaining opposition leaders and suppressing political freedoms. The Nobel Peace Prize Committee went so far as to rebuke him, saying it was “deeply concerned” by the situation in Tigray.

2. Ecuadoran General Election, February 7.

3. Dutch General Election, March 17.

4. Peruvian General Election, April 11.

5. Iraqi Parliamentary Elections, June 6.

6. Iranian Presidential Election, June 18.

7. Zambian General Election, August 12. 

8. Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections, September 5.

9. German Federal Election, September 26.

10. Nicaraguan General Election, November 7.

Situation Report EEPA HORN No. 42 – 2 January 2021

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Military situation (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● Multiple sources state that Eritrean soldiers are blocked in attempts to leave Tigray. Heavy fighting between Ethiopia National Defense Forces (ENDF) and Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) is taking place near the major roads out to Eritrea. This has stopped the Eritrean transfer of looted goods out of the region.

● A source says that the ENDF is handing Shire, Tigray, to Eritrean troops. Eritrean telecom is servicing the area. Some people received calls. The Shire area hosts 100.000 Eritrean refugees.

● A source states that the Tigray Egela Woreda (including Gerhu-Sirnay, Semhal, May-Hamato, Leyto, Endaba-Estifanos, and Gere’a), on the border with Eritrea, is occupied by Eritrean soldiers and Eritrean telecom is providing full coverage. Citizens made calls, using phones of Eritrean troops.

● The TPLF says that it has shot down an ENDF airforce gunship on 30/12 8:30.

● Belgian TV shows footage of dozens of “shot-up army vehicles”.

● Reports of rape of Tigray women as part of the violence carried out on civilians in Tigray.

● Sudan has declared that it achieved control of its territory occupied by Ethiopian farmers after several weeks of fighting in the area. Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs accused Sudan of sending troops into Ethiopia, which is denied by Sudan. Negotiations between the countries broke down last week.

Regional situation (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● Egypt reported that the statement of the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, Dina Mufti, was “totally unacceptable”. The statement held that Egypt “has turned Ethiopia into a threat”, a statement that was related to the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

● Egypt will hire an international law firm to protect investments, states Alaa Al-Saqati, head of the Egyptian Industrial Zone in Ethiopia, to initiate a case before international courts against Ethiopia.

● Al Shabaab and the Somalia ISIS branch have been emboldened after Ethiopia and the US withdrew a significant numbers of troops. The terrorist organisations state that they will disrupt elections planned for early 2021. There are fears of suppression and low turnout.

● The government and opposition in Somalia are in disagreement on the election preparations. The President has been accused by the opposition of “stacking” election committees with loyalists.

● There are concerns about the severe coronavirus restrictions in Eritrea. Sources say people have described the restrictions as a death sentence as they have no food. The rules do not apply to soldiers.

● Representatives of Ethiopia forced 179 truck drivers from the Tigrayan company EFFORT to hand the trucks over to the Ethiopian government. Amharic and Tigray drivers were separated. The drivers refused, but were brought to camps and forced to hand over the keys of the trucks.

Situation in Tigray (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● UN risk assessment team has reportedly not been able to travel outside Mekelle. According to a report they feared the Ethiopian security forces were surveilling their work.

● Aid agencies say that they are still largely unable to access the rest of Tigray. No communications, damaged infrastructure and government restrictions have stopped them from reaching most areas in Tigray. The Ethiopian government is still refusing full access.

● Students from the University of Adigrat have been transferred to Mekelle University. The other institutions in Tigray, have all been looted. Mekelle remains the only functional university in Tigray.

● Many houses have been completely looted. Utensils, valuables, and furniture have been taken. VOA Tigrigna has also reported that investments worth billions of Birr have been destroyed and looted in the southern areas of Tigray.

● ENDF soldiers have rounded up youth in Mekelle and these were taken to an unknown location.

● Report that the transitional Tigray government (Prosperity Party) is intimidating scholars of Mekelle University to join the Prosperity Party and to take a position in the transitional government appointed by the Federal Ethiopian government.

● The elected government of Tigray (TPLF) states on its station DW that it will act against Tigrinyans working with the transitional government appointed by the Federal Ethiopian government.

● Trucks owned by the Tigray EFFORT company were taken to Addis Ababa by the Ethiopian government.

Situation in Ethiopia (as confirmed per 2 January 2021)

● No evidence has been presented against the Reuters cameraman arrested on thursday 24 december. He will be held until January 8th, pending investigation.

● More reports of ethnic profiling and harassment against Tigrayans, including at Bole airport.

● 310 people were arrested in Ethiopia for causing disputes between the Ale and Konso communities in South Ethiopia. The conflict between the communities was quelled after traditional reconciliation. The communities are now helping each other rebuild their homes. Traditional law can help settle disputes.

● The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) released a report on the killings that took place in june following the assassination of the Oromo musician Hachalu Hundessa’s June 29th. 123 people were killed in the violence, 75 were killed by Ethiopian security forces. Many more were wounded and displaced as a result. The EHCR report finds that Crimes against Humanity took place by groups perpetrating the massacre.

● Witnesses interviewed by the EHCR stated that sometimes police watched and did not intervene while attacks were taking place.

● The EHCR said that they “did not find any indication of ongoing efforts to investigate the use of force by security officers during the unrest and to hold to account those who caused unnecessary human suffering”.

● The report noted that “crimes against humanity of this nature combined with the current national context are signs that the risk of atrocity crimes, including genocide, is increasing”. They call for
investigation and “a lasting institutional solution.”

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/397910/Egypt/Politics-/BREAKING-Egypt-slams-Ethiopian-statements-on-its-i.aspx
https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/b165-blunting-al-shabaabs-impact-somalias-elections
https://www.trtworld.com/africa/scores-reportedly-killed-beheaded-tortured-in-ethiopia-s-june-july-unrest-42873

Events in Tigray Overview 2020 – Briefing EEPA HORN No.2 – 31 Dec 2020

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Europe External Programme with Africa is a Belgium-based Centre of Expertise with in-depth knowledge, publications, and networks, specialised in issues of peace building, refugee protection and resilience in the Horn of Africa. EEPA has published extensively on issues related to movement and/or human trafficking of refugees in the Horn of Africa and on the Central Mediterranean Route. It cooperates with a wide network of Universities, research organisations, civil society and experts from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and across Africa. Key in-depth publications can be accessed on the website.

Key points

● More than two million children in Tigray do not have access to food, water and safety and may have been displaced, while there is a severe humanitarian situation regarding
100.000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray; full humanitarian access has not been given.
● Serious concern that war crimes are being committed against civilians in Tigray.
● Military situation likely to evolve into a protracted guerilla war situation.
● Destabilisation of peace in the region.
● Destabilisation in Ethiopia with increased ethnic fighting in the preparation of the elections.
● Facts on the ground in Tigray remain unclear due to a two-month communication lock-down.

Short overview

● Ethiopia PM Abiy claims that the regional government of Tigray state is undermining the central authority of Addis Ababa, by carrying out elections in September 2020, which were
not recognised by Addis Ababa. National elections had been postponed due to the COVID-situation.

● Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) won a new mandate, it claims, through the elections it held. It claims that PM Abiy was in cohoot with Eritrean Pres Isayas to
undermine Tigray.

● PM Abiy ordered a reorganisation of the Northern command of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF). This constitutes an important part of the ENDF, stationed in Tigray
region due to the earlier conflict with Eritrea. This conflict ended with an agreement between Abiy and Afwerki in July 2018. Abiy ordered the split of the Northern command.

● After PM Abiy sent a general to carry out the division of the Northern command, the TPLF sent him back to Addis Ababa. In a next move, PM Abiy sent troops in a cargo plane on 3
November to the Tigray capital Mekelle. The TPLF ordered the arrest of the troops. Details on what happened with them are missing and contradictory.

● Shooting from the main camp of the Northern Command in Qwiha/Mekelle was reported starting from ca. 10 pm. Different sources claim that some members of the ENDF had sided
with Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and other parts of the ENDF resisted, which led to bloodshed. Similar events are reported from other military posts in Tigray around the same
time. Sources from inside the TPLF, claimed that it was a pre-emptive strike due to preparations for an immediate attack by the federal government. PM Abiy called a law and order operation with the aim to restore his authority over the region.

● PM Abiy instated a temporary provisional government in Tigray to replace the elected TPLF regional government. He declared a six-month state of emergency in Tigray.

● Operations to get control over the Tigray capital Mekelle started 28th of November. The TPLF withdrew from the capital and the ENDF took control of the capital.

● Eritrea participates in the war, by providing support to Ethiopian troops within Eritrea and by sending troops into Tigray. The latter is denied by both PM Abiy and Eritrea President
Afewerki. However, the evidence from Tigray and Ethiopia is overwhelming. The US State Department declared Eritrea was engaged in the war after studying evidence.

● Tigray has been in shut down since the start of the military hostilities, with no phone, internet and bank access. In Mekelle phone contact was restored in December. More than
two million people do not have access to food, water and safety and are displaced.

Current Military Situation

● ENDF have stated that they control the situation in Tigray regional state.

● This is contradicted by the TPLF and TDF who state they are involved in large parts of Tigray and have claimed victory in several battles in which they would have been able to capture
soldiers, weapons, ammunition and vehicles.

● TPLF had 250.000 troops at the start of the war and claimed it had gained control over parts of the Northern command of the ENDF. This has weakened ENDF, and increased its
dependency on Eritrea. Amharic militia, including the youth militia Fano, are fighting alongside ENDF forces.

● Eritrean troops have been fighting alongside ENDF forces; although it is difficult to give exact numbers, there is reason to believe that an extensive number of divisions and
mechanised divisions of Eritrea are involved.

● The UAE has been alleged of engaging in the war initially by giving air-support with drones flown in from the Eritrea port of Assab, where the UAE has a military base.

Regional Stability in the Horn

Sudan: A border conflict broke out between Sudan and Ethiopia concerning fertile land originally from Sudan but in use by Ethiopian farmers. Both sides mobilised troops and
clashed after Sudanese troops claimed to have been ambushed and soldiers were killed. The army Chief of Staff al-Barun of Sudan personally oversaw the operation.

South Sudan: Ethiopia is the major contributor of UNMISS and UNISFA-Abyei. Ethiopia is the head of the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangement Monitoring and
Verification Mechanism (CTSAMM) and contributes forces to CTSAMM. The crisis in Ethiopia is affecting its ability to engage with South Sudan.

Somalia: Ethnic Tigray troops were removed from AMISOM and replaced by Eritrean troops. AMISOM’s mandate includes overseeing the threats posed by Al Shabaab and other
terrorist groups. In the past Al Shabaab was supported and trained by Eritrea as reported by the UN Monitoring Group.

Refugee situation

Shire, Tigray: four large camps hosting 100.000 refugees from Eritrea under international protection were among the places targeted in the military operations. It is estimated that
thousands of refugees were abducted by Eritrean troops and forcefully returned to Eritrea. Refugees were forced to engage in the fighting against the local population. Refugees were
killed and many fled from the camps. Two camps, Adi Harush and May Aini received the first food aid from World Food Programme on 27 December. The other camps, Shemelba and Hitsats have not received any food for three months. Five humanitarian workers in the camps have been killed.

Eastern Sudan: Over 60.000 refugees from Tigray have arrived in Eastern Sudan. They report massacres and cruel killings and many dead. Many lost their relatives. Ethiopian
troops and militia from Amhara regional state have been reported to block refugees from reaching Sudan.

Addis Ababa: Eritrean refugees who fled from Shire, Tigray to Addis Ababa have been arrested and forcefully transported back to the refugee camps in Tigray, despite the lack of
safety, food and water in those camps and the threat of forced refoulement to Eritrea.

Ethnic profiling, civilian targeting, looting

● Reports of massacres across Tigray, especially in Humera and Adigrat, cruelties and mass executions.

● Widespread profiling of ethnic Tigrayans has been reported in Tigray. In Ethiopia ethnic profiling has affected ethnic Tigrayans, who have been suspended from work, travel and
have been subject to harsh security measures.

● Heavy looting of properties, allegedly by Amhara militia and Eritrean troops, involving universities and laboratories, industries, commercial places, churches, religious sites and
citizens. It is reported that truckloads were transported to Eritrea (military base Asholgol).

Situation in Ethiopia

● In Ethiopia further conflict broke out in the Benishangul-Gumuz region and some officials of the region have been arrested.

● Leaders of the Oromo Liberation Front have been arrested.

● Journalists have been harassed, surveilled, arrested, raising concern of freedom of press.

● National elections have been called by the Ethiopian National Election Board for June 5th.

International response

● AU has appointed 3 special envoys: Mr Joaquim Chissano, former president of Mozambique; Madame Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, former President of Liberia, and Mr Kgalema
Motlanthe, former President of South Africa. The envoys have met with PM Abiy.

● US has repeatedly expressed concern over the developing situation. The US has sent the USS Makin Island ship to the Red Sea to relocate US “forces in Somalia to other East Africa
operating locations while maintaining pressure on violent extremists and supporting partner forces”. US has expressed concern over the situation.

● EU has suspended budget support to Ethiopia due to violation of Human Rights. The EU has called for a ceasefire and full humanitarian access to the Tigray region.

● UN has asked for full humanitarian access to all parts of Tigray and investigations into the allegations related to what may constitute war crimes.

● IGAD has met on 20th December 2020 in Djibouti to discuss the regional situation.

● Sudan and Egypt increased cooperation on military exercises.3rd Jan negotiations are planned on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which may further increase tension.

Disclaimer:

All information in this situation report is presented as a fluid update report, as to the best knowledge and understanding of the authors at the moment of publication. EEPA does not claim that the information is correct but verifies to the best of ability within the circumstances. Publication is weighed on the basis of interest to understand potential impacts of events (or perceptions of these) on the situation. Check all information against updates and other media. EEPA does not take responsibility for the use of the information or impact thereof. All information reported originates from third parties and the content of all reported and linked information remains the sole responsibility of these third parties. Report to info@eepa.be any additional information and corrections.

Links of interest

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/world/africa/Ethiopia-Eritrea-Tigray.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-arrest/ethiopian-police-arrest-reuters-cameraman-idUSKBN2920AD
https://addisstandard.com/news-local-official-in-amhara-region-accused-sudan-of-invading-large-swaths-of-land-stealing-destroying-more-than-25-m-worth-property/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2020-12-30/abiy-ahmeds-crisis-legitimacy
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/12/30/evidence-mounts-that-eritrean-forces-are-in-ethiopia
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1ukq3h-fUshA0a0ZDcSI22WHbfC6PnKtX&shorturl=1&ll=26.16920359729128%2C-14.51459589999999&z=2
https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2020/12/29/the-murky-politics-behind-the-metekel-massacres/
https://www.cfr.org/blog/amid-misinformation-and-suppressed-free-speech-ethiopian-conflict-erodes-abiys-credibility

Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2021

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According to a report by Robert Malley, President and CEO of International Crisis Group, published on Foreign Policy, the War on Tigray is one of the 10 conflicts the world should watch in 2021:

  1. Afghanistan
  2. Ethiopia
  3. The Sahel
  4. Yemen
  5. Venezuela
  6. Somalia
  7. Libya
  8. Iran – United States
  9. Russia – Turkey
  10. Climate Change

Read more

US businessmen are close to exploiting Ethiopia’s oil plans in a multibillion-dollar scheme

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Source: Quartz Africa | By Zecharias Zelalm

An Ethiopian-American investor and his partners are on the brink of pulling off an elaborate scheme that may unfairly take advantage of Ethiopia’s long-held ambitions to build its own oil & gas industry and become energy independent.

Nebiyu Getachew, 48, chief executive of GreenComm Technologies, a Virginia-based energy firm, signed a $3.6 billion deal with Ethiopia’s ministry of Mines and Petroleum on April 28 to construct an oil refinery in Ethiopia’s oil-rich Somali region.

But checks reveal little evidence GreenComm Technologies and its key executives have the expertise or experience to take on this major project. The company has no known industry credentials and has been delisted from the Virginia corporate database on two occasions, likely for failure to pay company registration fees on time. Read more